@blitzdude said:
Central bank accumulation as they prepare to dump US Treasuries like a bad habit. IMO.
They can't dump Treasuries unless they want their currencies to strengthen and kill their exports. Which is the reason for the Tariff Tantrum in the first place.
Dennis Gartman says we need a correction (duh !) but Goldman Sachs says $4,500 is possible later this year. Maybe that "forecast" will lead to a (temporary) top.
OP has been incarcerated. Dang it OP bad timing to be jailed with gold hitting new highs everyday. You had only 1 job OP.
Who wants to start a new gold price update thread and maybe we can let this thread die?
Yes, until it can return to producing itself what it consumes. Maybe that's the goal of tariffs?
What do we buy from China---plastic knick knacks and $3 shirts? We going to makes those here now?
We don't buy iPhones from China, we buy them from Apple. The tariffs are a tax on Apple, who then must decide on how to spread that tax among its supply/demand chain. Are the tariffs punitive to China or Apple or the consumer? All 3?
@derryb said:
Looks like the days of inflated data may be over: the truth always prevails.
Do you believe US govt issued data will now be more accurate and representative of economic conditions?
isn't that what I said?
I'm just looking for confirmation. You live in a different world than I.
I do look forward to you cheering on Govt issued data though. That's quite the reversal.
And I look forward to more truth in such data. We're seeing more transparency in a lot of things, let's hope it includes this data that has very important uses.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Yes, until it can return to producing itself what it consumes. Maybe that's the goal of tariffs?
What do we buy from China---plastic knick knacks and $3 shirts? We going to makes those here now?
We don't buy iPhones from China, we buy them from Apple. The tariffs are a tax on Apple, who then must decide on how to spread that tax among its supply/demand chain. Are the tariffs punitive to China or Apple or the consumer? All 3?
So, I'll ask you.....what is the goal of tariffs?
I'm not gonna school ya on the effect of trade imbalances. Find an online course and pay for it.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Yes, until it can return to producing itself what it consumes. Maybe that's the goal of tariffs?
What do we buy from China---plastic knick knacks and $3 shirts? We going to makes those here now?
We don't buy iPhones from China, we buy them from Apple. The tariffs are a tax on Apple, who then must decide on how to spread that tax among its supply/demand chain. Are the tariffs punitive to China or Apple or the consumer? All 3?
So, I'll ask you.....what is the goal of tariffs?
I'm not gonna school ya on the effect of trade imbalances.
Because you can't. There aremany reasons for trade imbalances. Not all are nefarious in nature.
Ive purchased coins from you in the past, but you've never from me. We have a trade imbalance. I'm going to charge you now for reading my posts.
I just ask this question, and its free for everyone to answer....what will we make and who will we sell it to?
You can add how that would effect gold prices as well, since that the topic of this thread. But please give supporting reasons, a simple higher.or lower or no effect does not help anyone.
@RedneckHB said:
You can add how that would effect gold prices as well, since that the topic of this thread. But please give supporting reasons, a simple higher.or lower or no effect does not help anyone.
first, interesting event after hitting "quote." difference in the last line
affect gold prices is NOT the subject of the thread
try making a coho/derryb argument thread and confine it to there
@RedneckHB said:
You can add how that would effect gold prices as well, since that the topic of this thread. But please give supporting reasons, a simple higher.or lower or no effect does not help anyone.
first, interesting event after hitting "quote." difference in the last line
affect gold prices is NOT the subject of the thread
Really,not about gold price? It's literally in the title.
Yes, until it can return to producing itself what it consumes. Maybe that's the goal of tariffs?
What do we buy from China---plastic knick knacks and $3 shirts? We going to makes those here now?
We don't buy iPhones from China, we buy them from Apple. The tariffs are a tax on Apple, who then must decide on how to spread that tax among its supply/demand chain. Are the tariffs punitive to China or Apple or the consumer? All 3?
So, I'll ask you.....what is the goal of tariffs?
I'm not gonna school ya on the effect of trade imbalances.
I just ask this question, and its free for everyone to answer....what will we make and who will we sell it to?
My guess is more of the same....... guns, pills and cheeseburgers. That be 'Merica. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
I think the gold rush is getting very toppy, temporarily. There are so many conflicting dynamics in world financial markets and major uncertainty, that gold has had a very strong but probably unsustainable, short-term run.
Last time I say gold this high above its 3-year running average (very spiky) it dropped about 20%. Yes, it will probably go up after that, but I think a bit of profit taking on maybe 25% of my stash seems logical. Way too many bulls can spoil the party.
I just ask this question, and its free for everyone to answer....what will we make and who will we sell it to?
Gee, how did we ever survive before Nixon opened the China trade window? What would we do if someone closed that window? Maybe we'll do like before and sell what we make to 300+ million Americans!
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
I think the gold rush is getting very toppy, temporarily. There are so many conflicting dynamics in world financial markets and major uncertainty, that gold has had a very strong but probably unsustainable, short-term run.
Last time I say gold this high above its 3-year running average (very spiky) it dropped about 20%. Yes, it will probably go up after that, but I think a bit of profit taking on maybe 25% of my stash seems logical. Way too many bulls can spoil the party.
I've watched a few videos that cite a study saying that the optimum gold holdings for central banks is around 30% of reserves, up from the current 10%, and that it will take anywhere from 2 to 5 years to get there.
It does feel good to sell some gold and wonder where all that money came from, but I think that volatility rules the day in the gold market. There is a big game of chicken going on.
Same goes for silver, the the dynamics are a little different with silver, which is facing a supply shortage in an inelastic market.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@Goldminers said:
I think the gold rush is getting very toppy, temporarily. There are so many conflicting dynamics in world financial >markets and major uncertainty, that gold has had a very strong but probably unsustainable, short-term run.
Last time I say gold this high above its 3-year running average (very spiky) it dropped about 20%. Yes, it will >probably go up after that, but I think a bit of profit taking on maybe 25% of my stash seems logical. Way too many >bulls can spoil the party.
Fair points all, GM. But consider these points:
(1) The retail market for gold is 5x what it was 10 years ago and probably 50x what it was 45 years ago. Many more people today can afford gold even at $3,000 than could afford it at $1,200 or $600 decades ago.
(2) We know mine supply can't expand much, if at all. Central Banks are not selling which ended previous bull runs.
(3) Very little bullish media articles on gold....nobody asking Jim Cramer about gold mining stocks. Everybody wants to know if buying NVDA or other AI plays is the way to go.
(4) Central bank, tariff, military, and economic volatility are increasing. Too many people own very little physical gold or even through an ETF.
The move looks restrained compared to the 1970's or 2000's....using $35, $300, and $1,200 as the base for each gold launch, the others went up 20-fold and 6-fold. This is approaching a triple. A correction would not be surprising but I wonder if a sideways move might accomplish the same thing over a longer time horizon. It's rare for precious metals, but it would probably fool the greatest number of investors and speculators, which is what markets are want to do.
I can agree a sideways move could be reasonable, but it may depend on other economics. If long bond rates stay high, stocks drop, and unemployment rises there will be gold profit taking in the paper gold market.
What I do see that is interesting is many foreign gold coins, like French Roosters, and Angels, Swiss francs have nearly disappeared from the US market. I used to buy a lot of 100-year-old classic foreign coins from American Gold Exchange, and they are sold out of nearly everything and say almost nothing physical in coin form is available from Europe anymore.
@Goldminers said:
What I do see that is interesting is many foreign gold coins, like French Roosters, and Angels, Swiss francs have >nearly disappeared from the US market. I used to buy a lot of 100-year-old classic foreign coins from American Gold >Exchange, and they are sold out of nearly everything and say almost nothing physical in coin form is available from >Europe anymore.
That's something that many of us never considered: to what extent will a rising gold price reduce numismatic premiums on lower-graded gold coins making it economic just to melt them down for their gold content ?
I know one Rooster collector from another forum and those are already tough to find.
I wonder if we destroy tens of thousands of common or semi-common Saints....could we find they are in short supply years from today if we experience a surge in collectors who want medium-graded gold coins ? You could have a situation similar to the MCMVII High Relief were demand has driven up the price (and premium) well-above the gold content. For decades, it traded at small premium to the gold content until holders refused to sell (handing it down) and more buyers entered.
A guy I follow makes the case for Gold:Silver ratio of 171+ based on technical analysis. This guy gets it right a lot of the time. That will be the time to dump gold for silver.
I just ask this question, and its free for everyone to answer....what will we make and who will we sell it to?
Gee, how did we ever survive before Nixon opened the China trade window? What would we do if someone closed that window? Maybe we'll do like before and sell what we make to 300+ million Americans!
2025 isn't 1965. America has priced itself out of the manufacturing business. We are a country of excess, we have everything we need. Other than replacement, demand for goods is negligible. That's why we are a service economy- We even import labor to mow our lawns.
Foreign countries will not want our automobiles. We will not build plastic or rubber factories here.
Sure, we can build iPhones--if we can find the labor since half of America has a 6th grade or lower reading comprehension level-- and (maybe) sell them to Americans at 50% more, but other countries won't pay that price.
It would be great to have skilled, high paying manufacturing jobs here but the final product cost would be prohibitive to the rest of the world. Business cannot grow if it is limited to its own community. The rest of the world will trade among itself and American will fail.
I just ask this question, and its free for everyone to answer....what will we make and who will we sell it to?
Gee, how did we ever survive before Nixon opened the China trade window? What would we do if someone closed that window? Maybe we'll do like before and sell what we make to 300+ million Americans!
2025 isn't 1965. America has priced itself out of the manufacturing business.
Blanket statements like this are not true. Labor costs and regulatory compliance are the main cost savings for overseas manufacturing, but not all manufacturing requires a lot of labor, most of it is (or can be) highly automated and thus doing it in the US does not cost that much more on a per unit basis. And don't forget there are other offsets, such as shipping and lead times, quality control, and loss of IP. It will or would be a lot easier for the US to sell goods to other country if they didn't tariff our exports, but I bet, for example, Europe might buy a few more American cars if they were priced equivalently to the European models.
We are a country of excess, we have everything we need. Other than replacement, demand for goods is negligible.
I must not understand what you're saying. Why do we import so much then?
That's why we are a service economy- We even import labor to mow our lawns.
The US, like most countries, has work visas for every level of labor such as engineering and doctors, not just landscaping. What's your point? Foreign labor is brought in to compete with domestic labor and keep costs down, not because it isn't available.
Foreign countries will not want our automobiles. We will not build plastic or rubber factories here.
Why would other countries not buy our cars if they did not have tariff surcharges on them? I do believe that's why the tariffs are there to begin with - so foreign markets do not have to compete with US cars. right?
If the economics make sense, the plastic and rubber factories will be back. Any company would prefer to eliminate the logistics nightmare of a vulnerable foreign supply chain if the economics make sense.
Sure, we can build iPhones--if we can find the labor since half of America has a 6th grade or lower reading comprehension level-- and (maybe) sell them to Americans at 50% more, but other countries won't pay that price.
Sounds like the perfect employee to perform assembly work. But regardless, do you really think labor is a large part of the cost of an iPhone? I'm pretty sure most of it is automated. Apple CEO Tim Cook has said that the reason they make the iphone in China (Taiwan) is not labor costs, where workers are paid $10-27/hr. I seriously doubt the having Americans assemble the phones would lead to more than $50 in increased cost on a $1000 item. What's it worth to know that the next time international tempers flare that we can still get new phones? Let's not forget that higher costs don't come without extra value.
It would be great to have skilled, high paying manufacturing jobs here but the final product cost would be prohibitive to the rest of the world. Business cannot grow if it is limited to its own community. The rest of the world will trade among itself and American will fail.
The world is tired of buying US paper. Tariffs imposed by other markets have lead to the US being only able to sell to "its own community" but his may be about to change.
So how would that AFFECT gold price in the USA?
A stronger US dollar would mean lower US dollar gold prices and products that are expensive for other countries to buy, but a weak US dollar makes US good more affordable. That's why policy changes have to be viewed in context.
The DXY has broken support and is headed to ~88, which probably means higher gold prices still coming.
@Goldminers said:
What I do see that is interesting is many foreign gold coins, like French Roosters, and Angels, Swiss francs have >nearly disappeared from the US market. I used to buy a lot of 100-year-old classic foreign coins from American Gold >Exchange, and they are sold out of nearly everything and say almost nothing physical in coin form is available from >Europe anymore.
That's something that many of us never considered: to what extent will a rising gold price reduce numismatic premiums on lower-graded gold coins making it economic just to melt them down for their gold content ?
I know one Rooster collector from another forum and those are already tough to find.
I wonder if we destroy tens of thousands of common or semi-common Saints....could we find they are in short supply years from today if we experience a surge in collectors who want medium-graded gold coins ? You could have a situation similar to the MCMVII High Relief were demand has driven up the price (and premium) well-above the gold content. For decades, it traded at small premium to the gold content until holders refused to sell (handing it down) and more buyers entered.
I'm sure it's happening but I don't see a need to melt down sovereigns and 20 Franc type coins now. They are known entities and are in many ways more desirable than a single 1 ounce coin. These smaller coins are going from $600 - $900 each, making them easier to purchase and in a SHTF scenario more useful. Dealers don't have to refine them to see a decent profit, just wait a week. I think any current scarcity is due to demand and not enough folks thinking this is a good time to cash them in.
Comments
$4600 an ounce today in Canada.
I can't imagine spending 5K on one ounce of gold, but I have a feeling in 3 to 5 years, it will be a bargain.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
They can't dump Treasuries unless they want their currencies to strengthen and kill their exports. Which is the reason for the Tariff Tantrum in the first place.
$3,330 on COMEX....up another $80.
Dennis Gartman says we need a correction (duh !) but Goldman Sachs says $4,500 is possible later this year. Maybe that "forecast" will lead to a (temporary) top.
note on kitco it is up 95 for the day
isn't that what I said?
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Yes, until it can return to producing itself what it consumes. Maybe that's the goal of tariffs?
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
HIGH of 3343.60
kitco close
3,341.70
+112.60 (+3.49%)
futures closed 3357.70
Sold 11 coins today....should SOAR to new heights in the next couple of days ... just to laugh at me
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
how many more $25 milestones before PC gets out of jail?
i'll take 5
Well it'll be 2 weeks before I can update the thread title but I can still post. At least we've got hourly chart posts from @MsMorrisine
http://ProofCollection.Net
better to sell on the way up than on the way down
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
OP has been incarcerated. Dang it OP bad timing to be jailed with gold hitting new highs everyday. You had only 1 job OP.
Who wants to start a new gold price update thread and maybe we can let this thread die?
I'm just looking for confirmation. You live in a different world than I.
I do look forward to you cheering on Govt issued data though. That's quite the reversal.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
What do we buy from China---plastic knick knacks and $3 shirts? We going to makes those here now?
We don't buy iPhones from China, we buy them from Apple. The tariffs are a tax on Apple, who then must decide on how to spread that tax among its supply/demand chain. Are the tariffs punitive to China or Apple or the consumer? All 3?
So, I'll ask you.....what is the goal of tariffs?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
This thread, and others, are reading as very bullish. Hmmmm.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Gold has become a day trader's delight.
Of course it's a horror if ya time the trades incorrectly.
And I look forward to more truth in such data. We're seeing more transparency in a lot of things, let's hope it includes this data that has very important uses.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
I'm not gonna school ya on the effect of trade imbalances. Find an online course and pay for it.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
look at 1 yr change above
Because you can't. There aremany reasons for trade imbalances. Not all are nefarious in nature.
Ive purchased coins from you in the past, but you've never from me. We have a trade imbalance. I'm going to charge you now for reading my posts.
I just ask this question, and its free for everyone to answer....what will we make and who will we sell it to?
You can add how that would effect gold prices as well, since that the topic of this thread. But please give supporting reasons, a simple higher.or lower or no effect does not help anyone.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
first, interesting event after hitting "quote." difference in the last line
affect gold prices is NOT the subject of the thread
try making a coho/derryb argument thread and confine it to there
Really,not about gold price? It's literally in the title.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
My guess is more of the same....... guns, pills and cheeseburgers. That be 'Merica. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Maybe we should learn how to manufacture gold?
Didn't alchemists attempt to do that in past centuries?
😉
I think the gold rush is getting very toppy, temporarily. There are so many conflicting dynamics in world financial markets and major uncertainty, that gold has had a very strong but probably unsustainable, short-term run.
Last time I say gold this high above its 3-year running average (very spiky) it dropped about 20%. Yes, it will probably go up after that, but I think a bit of profit taking on maybe 25% of my stash seems logical. Way too many bulls can spoil the party.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Gee, how did we ever survive before Nixon opened the China trade window? What would we do if someone closed that window? Maybe we'll do like before and sell what we make to 300+ million Americans!
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
I think the gold rush is getting very toppy, temporarily. There are so many conflicting dynamics in world financial markets and major uncertainty, that gold has had a very strong but probably unsustainable, short-term run.
Last time I say gold this high above its 3-year running average (very spiky) it dropped about 20%. Yes, it will probably go up after that, but I think a bit of profit taking on maybe 25% of my stash seems logical. Way too many bulls can spoil the party.
I've watched a few videos that cite a study saying that the optimum gold holdings for central banks is around 30% of reserves, up from the current 10%, and that it will take anywhere from 2 to 5 years to get there.
It does feel good to sell some gold and wonder where all that money came from, but I think that volatility rules the day in the gold market. There is a big game of chicken going on.
Same goes for silver, the the dynamics are a little different with silver, which is facing a supply shortage in an inelastic market.
I knew it would happen.
Gold is so hot right now, I've heard the commodity exchange is considering offering pyrite futures.
😉
i used the word "affect" intentionally. it was not a grammar check
so, yes, it's about gold prices, but not about the usual arguments over what affects gold prices
we're here spiking the ball
Fair points all, GM. But consider these points:
(1) The retail market for gold is 5x what it was 10 years ago and probably 50x what it was 45 years ago. Many more people today can afford gold even at $3,000 than could afford it at $1,200 or $600 decades ago.
(2) We know mine supply can't expand much, if at all. Central Banks are not selling which ended previous bull runs.
(3) Very little bullish media articles on gold....nobody asking Jim Cramer about gold mining stocks. Everybody wants to know if buying NVDA or other AI plays is the way to go.
(4) Central bank, tariff, military, and economic volatility are increasing. Too many people own very little physical gold or even through an ETF.
The move looks restrained compared to the 1970's or 2000's....using $35, $300, and $1,200 as the base for each gold launch, the others went up 20-fold and 6-fold. This is approaching a triple. A correction would not be surprising but I wonder if a sideways move might accomplish the same thing over a longer time horizon. It's rare for precious metals, but it would probably fool the greatest number of investors and speculators, which is what markets are want to do.
I can agree a sideways move could be reasonable, but it may depend on other economics. If long bond rates stay high, stocks drop, and unemployment rises there will be gold profit taking in the paper gold market.
What I do see that is interesting is many foreign gold coins, like French Roosters, and Angels, Swiss francs have nearly disappeared from the US market. I used to buy a lot of 100-year-old classic foreign coins from American Gold Exchange, and they are sold out of nearly everything and say almost nothing physical in coin form is available from Europe anymore.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
That's something that many of us never considered: to what extent will a rising gold price reduce numismatic premiums on lower-graded gold coins making it economic just to melt them down for their gold content ?
I know one Rooster collector from another forum and those are already tough to find.
I wonder if we destroy tens of thousands of common or semi-common Saints....could we find they are in short supply years from today if we experience a surge in collectors who want medium-graded gold coins ? You could have a situation similar to the MCMVII High Relief were demand has driven up the price (and premium) well-above the gold content. For decades, it traded at small premium to the gold content until holders refused to sell (handing it down) and more buyers entered.
A guy I follow makes the case for Gold:Silver ratio of 171+ based on technical analysis. This guy gets it right a lot of the time. That will be the time to dump gold for silver.
http://ProofCollection.Net
I think the gold/silver ratio is useless, to be quite frank.
One might as well guess the stock market's direction from women's hemlines.
2025 isn't 1965. America has priced itself out of the manufacturing business. We are a country of excess, we have everything we need. Other than replacement, demand for goods is negligible. That's why we are a service economy- We even import labor to mow our lawns.
Foreign countries will not want our automobiles. We will not build plastic or rubber factories here.
Sure, we can build iPhones--if we can find the labor since half of America has a 6th grade or lower reading comprehension level-- and (maybe) sell them to Americans at 50% more, but other countries won't pay that price.
It would be great to have skilled, high paying manufacturing jobs here but the final product cost would be prohibitive to the rest of the world. Business cannot grow if it is limited to its own community. The rest of the world will trade among itself and American will fail.
So how would that AFFECT
gold price in the USA?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
your statement does not make the point you think it does
To each his own, but if you are a stacker, extreme values are a great time to switch from one metal to another. You can do quite well doing that.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Blanket statements like this are not true. Labor costs and regulatory compliance are the main cost savings for overseas manufacturing, but not all manufacturing requires a lot of labor, most of it is (or can be) highly automated and thus doing it in the US does not cost that much more on a per unit basis. And don't forget there are other offsets, such as shipping and lead times, quality control, and loss of IP. It will or would be a lot easier for the US to sell goods to other country if they didn't tariff our exports, but I bet, for example, Europe might buy a few more American cars if they were priced equivalently to the European models.
I must not understand what you're saying. Why do we import so much then?
The US, like most countries, has work visas for every level of labor such as engineering and doctors, not just landscaping. What's your point? Foreign labor is brought in to compete with domestic labor and keep costs down, not because it isn't available.
Why would other countries not buy our cars if they did not have tariff surcharges on them? I do believe that's why the tariffs are there to begin with - so foreign markets do not have to compete with US cars. right?
If the economics make sense, the plastic and rubber factories will be back. Any company would prefer to eliminate the logistics nightmare of a vulnerable foreign supply chain if the economics make sense.
Sounds like the perfect employee to perform assembly work. But regardless, do you really think labor is a large part of the cost of an iPhone? I'm pretty sure most of it is automated. Apple CEO Tim Cook has said that the reason they make the iphone in China (Taiwan) is not labor costs, where workers are paid $10-27/hr. I seriously doubt the having Americans assemble the phones would lead to more than $50 in increased cost on a $1000 item. What's it worth to know that the next time international tempers flare that we can still get new phones? Let's not forget that higher costs don't come without extra value.
The world is tired of buying US paper. Tariffs imposed by other markets have lead to the US being only able to sell to "its own community" but his may be about to change.
A stronger US dollar would mean lower US dollar gold prices and products that are expensive for other countries to buy, but a weak US dollar makes US good more affordable. That's why policy changes have to be viewed in context.
The DXY has broken support and is headed to ~88, which probably means higher gold prices still coming.
http://ProofCollection.Net
The title > @GoldFinger1969 said:
I'm sure it's happening but I don't see a need to melt down sovereigns and 20 Franc type coins now. They are known entities and are in many ways more desirable than a single 1 ounce coin. These smaller coins are going from $600 - $900 each, making them easier to purchase and in a SHTF scenario more useful. Dealers don't have to refine them to see a decent profit, just wait a week. I think any current scarcity is due to demand and not enough folks thinking this is a good time to cash them in.
...
Hit $3,397 tonight. Where it stops nobody knows.
$3400+ is official.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Close but not yet. Sing it with me: "God Bless the Metal of the Kings" RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™