@jmski52 said:
RedneckHB said: Rock bottom premiums are a result of high prices, just as in 2011.
Not always. (That's not what happened in 2022 when silver was scarce and premiums on Silver Eagles were $15 over spot - as prices were going UP.)
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Same happened to oil in 2014 and residential housing in 2007 and .com stocks in 2000. The markets became awash with these assets as the price went higher. That's how it works and why the best cure for high prices is high prices.
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
Silver Eagles were scarce because the US Mint was having trouble with sourcing. Fact.
The effects of scarcity upon pricing is what I was discussing - not the effect that pricing has upon sourcing.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Silver has been in a supply deficit for over 5 years and scrap is becoming scarce. Do with the information what you will.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
@jmski52 said: Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
Silver Eagles were scarce because the US Mint was having trouble with sourcing. Fact.
Yes, they could not get silver from their approved supplied. They could have gone to Ebay and bought all they needed. Silver was not scarce...ase blanks were scarce, not silver.
The effects of scarcity upon pricing is what I was discussing - not the effect that pricing has upon sourcing.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Silver has been in a supply deficit for over 5 years and scrap is becoming scarce. Do with the information what you want.
Silver may appear scarce because folk are buried in it for the last 15 years (strong hands, right). They are not rushing to the refineries to turn in grandma's tea set or that sterling necklace an old boyfriend gave them. Get Silver over $50 and it will be everywhere. The higher the price, the more that will be available. Do with that as you will.
@jmski52 said: Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
Silver Eagles were scarce because the US Mint was having trouble with sourcing. Fact.
Yes, they could not get silver from their approved supplied. They could have gone to Ebay and bought all they needed. Silver was not scarce...ase blanks were scarce, not silver.
As I recall, premiums weren't only high on silver eagles. It was silver across the board. Am I wrong?
@jmski52 said:
RedneckHB said: Rock bottom premiums are a result of high prices, just as in 2011.
Not always. (That's not what happened in 2022 when silver was scarce and premiums on Silver Eagles were $15 over spot - as prices were going UP.)
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Same happened to oil in 2014 and residential housing in 2007 and .com stocks in 2000. The markets became awash with these assets as the price went higher. That's how it works and why the best cure for high prices is high prices.
.
You think housing prices peaked in 2007 and then declined because the prices were too high ?
I guess you forgot about the credit expansion leading into 2007 and then contraction and tightening mortgage standards that resulted after that. It was a classic case of credit expansion and contraction, not "high prices".
The most effective cure for high prices is a recession or depression.
Here's some interesting tidbits from a trading (not gold bug) newsletter I get.
GOLD: NOWHERE NEAR A TOP
Let's cut through the noise about gold "topping out" with some hard data that will shock you:
National Gold Holdings (as % of total assets):
Switzerland: 3.67% (highest globally)
Italy: 3.28%
Russia: 2.78%
Germany: 2.20%
United States: 1.44%
Turkey: 1.18%
India: 0.94%
Most other nations: <1%
Top Hedge Funds:
Bridgewater: 2%
Man Group: 2%
Citadel: 1%
Most others: 0.5% or less
Let those percentages sink in. The "gold heavy" Swiss financial system holds just 3.67% in gold. The United States, supposed holder of the world's largest reserves, maintains a paltry 1.44% allocation. Canada, a major gold producer, effectively holds ZERO.
These aren't meaningful positions – they're basically rounding errors! I wouldn’t buy anything for my portfolio at just 1% because even if it quadruples, it barely moves the needle.
The fact is, we're witnessing the early stages of a historic reallocation. For gold to truly "top," we'd need to see central banks and institutions holding 10-20% or more of their assets in gold. We're nowhere near that level.
.
THE DEBT COLLAPSE HAS BEGUN
Two weeks ago, we witnessed something that mainstream financial theory says should be impossible: both the US dollar AND Treasury bonds declined simultaneously.
@jmski52 said:
RedneckHB said: Rock bottom premiums are a result of high prices, just as in 2011.
Not always. (That's not what happened in 2022 when silver was scarce and premiums on Silver Eagles were $15 over spot - as prices were going UP.)
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Same happened to oil in 2014 and residential housing in 2007 and .com stocks in 2000. The markets became awash with these assets as the price went higher. That's how it works and why the best cure for high prices is high prices.
.
You think housing prices peaked in 2007 and then declined because the prices were too high ?
Yes. We created strategies to get anyone and everyone into a home which pushed prices higher. When prices became high enough supply exceed demand and prices dropped, resulting in a recession as losses snowballed and folk lost money. The cure for high prices was high prices as this encouraged folk to sell increasing supply over demand. Folk were paying premiums to get into those houses and were later accepting discounts to get out. Same exact thing happened in 2011 with silver and 2000 with .com stocks.
I guess you forgot about the credit expansion leading into 2007 and then contraction and tightening mortgage standards that resulted after that. It was a classic case of credit expansion and contraction, not "high prices".
I didn't forget any of that.
The most effective cure for high prices is a recession or depression.
The high prices come first, then the (decline) recession.
@jmski52 said:
RedneckHB said: Rock bottom premiums are a result of high prices, just as in 2011.
Not always. (That's not what happened in 2022 when silver was scarce and premiums on Silver Eagles were $15 over spot - as prices were going UP.)
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Same happened to oil in 2014 and residential housing in 2007 and .com stocks in 2000. The markets became awash with these assets as the price went higher. That's how it works and why the best cure for high prices is high prices.
.
You think housing prices peaked in 2007 and then declined because the prices were too high ?
Yes. We created strategies to get anyone and everyone into a home which pushed prices higher. When prices became high enough supply exceed demand and prices dropped, resulting in a recession as losses snowballed and folk lost money. The cure for high prices was high prices as this encouraged folk to sell increasing supply over demand. Folk were paying premiums to get into those houses and were later accepting discounts to get out. Same exact thing happened in 2011 with silver and 2000 with .com stocks.
Wow, you remember a different reality. The over-supply was not caused by high prices. It was caused by the sudden lack of credit for buyers after the the bank collapse which caused prices to go down a little bit which then put homeowners under water who then started walking away which started a snowball effect of increasing supply.
I guess you forgot about the credit expansion leading into 2007 and then contraction and tightening mortgage standards that resulted after that. It was a classic case of credit expansion and contraction, not "high prices".
I didn't forget any of that.
Clearly you did.
The most effective cure for high prices is a recession or depression.
The high prices come first, then the (decline) recession.
You're talking too generally. High prices of what? Just real estate? Or other things like gold? We had $1900 gold in 2011 which was a high not seen again for 9 more years, that didn't cause a recession. High real estate prices do not cause recessions FWIW, real estate prices are not high where they are now. Today's prices (at least in my market) reflect a 4% annual appreciation rate since 2000. Prices only seem high because of the recovery after being suppressed for about a decade after the 2008 banking crisis. Anyone who bought a home more than 2 years ago (in most markets) has decent equity to withstand any momentary 5-10% price dip so there will be no excess supply of houses hitting the market to drive housing prices down significantly.
@VanHalen said:
2011 when silver ran up fast is the closest thing I can liken this to. This run has been going on for many months though. I'm not a technical guy but wow. USD down, demand up and what else?
I'm beginning to think we'll never see $3,000 again.
I think we could see $2800 again as the charts always fine a reason to re-test previous resistance levels. Always. Could be Deutch bank finally going bust, or volcanoes in Italy, or potentially a positive market announcement/development.
Hope we see $2800 again and believe you're right. I'll be buying at $2800.
@jmski52 said:
RedneckHB said: Rock bottom premiums are a result of high prices, just as in 2011.
Not always. (That's not what happened in 2022 when silver was scarce and premiums on Silver Eagles were $15 over spot - as prices were going UP.)
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Same happened to oil in 2014 and residential housing in 2007 and .com stocks in 2000. The markets became awash with these assets as the price went higher. That's how it works and why the best cure for high prices is high prices.
.
You think housing prices peaked in 2007 and then declined because the prices were too high ?
Yes. We created strategies to get anyone and everyone into a home which pushed prices higher. When prices became high enough supply exceed demand and prices dropped, resulting in a recession as losses snowballed and folk lost money. The cure for high prices was high prices as this encouraged folk to sell increasing supply over demand. Folk were paying premiums to get into those houses and were later accepting discounts to get out. Same exact thing happened in 2011 with silver and 2000 with .com stocks.
Wow, you remember a different reality. The over-supply was not caused by high prices. It was caused by the sudden lack of credit for buyers after the the bank collapse which caused prices to go down a little bit which then put homeowners under water who then started walking away which started a snowball effect of increasing supply.
No. My reality is truth. Home prices stopped increasing in early 2006. Homes were no longer seeing offers over ask. Current owners began to place their homes on the market and builders rushed to finish their starts. Increased supply brought about by high prices. Lenders began to pull credit in early 2007 when prices began to fall and the first bank failed in early 2008. Credit contracted because lenders were beginning to see losses.
I guess you forgot about the credit expansion leading into 2007 and then contraction and tightening mortgage standards that resulted after that. It was a classic case of credit expansion and contraction, not "high prices".
I didn't forget any of that.
Clearly you did.
The chart below will prove my timetable of events.
The most effective cure for high prices is a recession or depression.
The high prices come first, then the (decline) recession.
You're talking too generally. High prices of what? Just real estate? Or other things like gold? We had $1900 gold in 2011 which was a high not seen again for 9 more years, that didn't cause a recession.
High gold prices will not cause a recession. It is not a source of economic growth
High real estate prices do not cause recessions FWIW, real estate prices are not high where they are now. Today's prices (at least in my market) reflect a 4% annual appreciation rate since 2000. Prices only seem high because of the recovery after being suppressed for about a decade after the 2008 banking crisis. Anyone who bought a home more than 2 years ago (in most markets) has decent equity to withstand any momentary 5-10% price dip so there will be no excess supply of houses hitting the market to drive housing prices down significantly.
A collapse in real estate prices can cause a recession because the building of and occupying of a home heavily affects the economy through the numerous industries involved in home building, development, financing, furnishings, ect. And i never said, nor do I believe now, that residential real estate prices are exceedingly high.
IMO home prices are too high and reflect moving from 2020 to now according to the graph of the HPI a move of 120/220 index change or 54% increase in less than 5 years.
Maybe housing is up only 4% per year since 2000, but the last 5 years they are 10% per year and making it very hard for a large number of people to buy a home these days, especially with 6%+ mortgage rates.
@jmski52 said:
RedneckHB said: Rock bottom premiums are a result of high prices, just as in 2011.
Not always. (That's not what happened in 2022 when silver was scarce and premiums on Silver Eagles were $15 over spot - as prices were going UP.)
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Same happened to oil in 2014 and residential housing in 2007 and .com stocks in 2000. The markets became awash with these assets as the price went higher. That's how it works and why the best cure for high prices is high prices.
.
You think housing prices peaked in 2007 and then declined because the prices were too high ?
Yes. We created strategies to get anyone and everyone into a home which pushed prices higher. When prices became high enough supply exceed demand and prices dropped, resulting in a recession as losses snowballed and folk lost money. The cure for high prices was high prices as this encouraged folk to sell increasing supply over demand. Folk were paying premiums to get into those houses and were later accepting discounts to get out. Same exact thing happened in 2011 with silver and 2000 with .com stocks.
Wow, you remember a different reality. The over-supply was not caused by high prices. It was caused by the sudden lack of credit for buyers after the the bank collapse which caused prices to go down a little bit which then put homeowners under water who then started walking away which started a snowball effect of increasing supply.
No. My reality is truth. Home prices stopped increasing in early 2006. Homes were no longer seeing offers over ask. Current owners began to place their homes on the market and builders rushed to finish their starts. Increased supply brought about by high prices. Lenders began to pull credit in early 2007 when prices began to fall and the first bank failed in early 2008. Credit contracted because lenders were beginning to see losses.
I was a real estate agent during this time and still am. The party would have kept going if the lending hadn't contracted and banks hadn't started failed. I didn't have buyers complaining about prices, I had buyers unable to get loans.
edited to add:
Prices don't matter when you think prices are headed even higher. Who cares if the price of gold is $3300 if you think it will be $4000 next month?
@Goldminers said:
IMO home prices are too high and reflect moving from 2020 to now according to the graph of the HPI a move of 120/220 index change or 54% increase in less than 5 years.
Maybe housing is up only 4% per year since 2000, but the last 5 years they are 10% per year and making it very hard for a large number of people to buy a home these days, especially with 6%+ mortgage rates.
You have to compare housing prices to rents. Not all markets are the same but in my market, rents are fairly equivalent between owning (mtg pmt) and renting so it would be hard for there to be any meaningful drop in prices or investors will snap them up and rent them out. And if people can't buy a house they end up renting so the housing need doesn't disappear. And as rents have never gone down, dropping rental rates is not something to anticipate.
i think i can nail down the day and time of the publication decision
Pretty sure the top was created the morning Cramer was sitting on CNBC Morning Bell talking about the Costco gold bars he had been buying with his 2% executive/ 2% CC cash back discounts. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@derryb said:
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years.
Yes, but not for 10 or12 years, or 30 years and certainly not for 40 or 50. These are great games.
@derryb said:
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years.
Yes, but not for 10 or12 years, or 30 years and certainly not for 40 or 50. These are great games.
a good run is a good run no matter how wide your chart.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@derryb said:
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed >stocks for the past twenty-five years.
Way to cherry-pick the start and end times !! Gold has a losing track record using rolling time periods which corrects for timing bias.
The long-term return of gold, depending on when you start/end, is ~4%. Comparable to a bond fund.
@derryb said:
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed >stocks for the past twenty-five years.
Way to cherry-pick the start and end times !!
25 years is a pretty big cherry. Likely covers the time frame most, if not all, here have chosen gold over stocks. Isn't that the cherry that matters here?
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@derryb said:
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed >stocks for the past twenty-five years.
Way to cherry-pick the start and end times !!
25 years is a pretty big cherry. Likely covers the time frame most, if not all, here have chosen gold over stocks. Isn't that the cherry that matters here?
The cherry was the warning given in 2011. Dang, that tasted good.
@derryb said:
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed >stocks for the past twenty-five years.
Way to cherry-pick the start and end times !!
25 years is a pretty big cherry. Likely covers the time frame most, if not all, here have chosen gold over stocks. Isn't that the cherry that matters here?
The cherry was the warning given in 2011. Dang, that tasted good.
Buy low, sell high. I never had much respect for you buy and hold guys. Boom, Bust cycles are great not only for transferring wealth from the middle to the top, they work well for individuals in the middle who can see them and trade them accordingly (thank you incompetent FED).
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@derryb said "Buy low, sell high. I never had much respect for you buy and hold guys"
I assume few on this board are truly buy and hold. Personally, I invest for the long term, make very few trades, and periodically rebalance. My lifetime risk adjusted return has been good but not exceptional. With that said, I'm not sure if I know any market timers who have done better. (they are out there of course; a few who are exceptionally savvy; others who are just plan lucky)
@Higashiyama said: @derryb said "Buy low, sell high. I never had much respect for you buy and hold guys"
I assume few on this board are truly buy and hold. Personally, I invest for the long term, make very few trades, and periodically rebalance. My lifetime risk adjusted return has been good but not exceptional. With that said, I'm not sure if I know any market timers who have done better. (they are out there of course; a few who are exceptionally savvy; others who are just plan lucky)
one doesn't have to hit the tops or the bottoms to be successful. One simply has to sell for more than they paid. Trying to hit a top is just greed.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
@Higashiyama said: @derryb said "Buy low, sell high. I never had much respect for you buy and hold guys"
I assume few on this board are truly buy and hold. Personally, I invest for the long term, make very few trades, and periodically rebalance. My lifetime risk adjusted return has been good but not exceptional. With that said, I'm not sure if I know any market timers who have done better. (they are out there of course; a few who are exceptionally savvy; others who are just plan lucky)
one doesn't have to hit the tops or the bottoms to be successful. One simply has to sell for more than they paid. Trying to hit a top is just greed.
Again, so easy to say.
Is this a top? I'm up 2-3x on most of my gold holdings. Should I sell or am I greedy if I hold on for more?
Comments
Too bad the title can't be changed to reflect the higher prices hit....
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
Strongest talk I've heard from both sides since it began, about ending the Ukraine War.
Be interesting to see when an agreement is finally reached, how that will affect the price of gold?
RedneckHB said: Rock bottom premiums are a result of high prices, just as in 2011.
Not always. (That's not what happened in 2022 when silver was scarce and premiums on Silver Eagles were $15 over spot - as prices were going UP.)
RedneckHB said: Actually, the higher the price the easier the sourcing.
The effects of scarcity upon pricing is what I was discussing - not the effect that pricing has upon sourcing.
I knew it would happen.
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Same happened to oil in 2014 and residential housing in 2007 and .com stocks in 2000. The markets became awash with these assets as the price went higher. That's how it works and why the best cure for high prices is high prices.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Silver was not scarce in 2022. Silver Eagles were.
Silver Eagles were scarce because the US Mint was having trouble with sourcing. Fact.
The effects of scarcity upon pricing is what I was discussing - not the effect that pricing has upon sourcing.
The higher the price goes, the less scarce Silver will become, hence lower or no premium, and most probably discounts, just as has always happen in the past.
Silver has been in a supply deficit for over 5 years and scrap is becoming scarce. Do with the information what you will.
I knew it would happen.
Yes, they could not get silver from their approved supplied. They could have gone to Ebay and bought all they needed. Silver was not scarce...ase blanks were scarce, not silver.
Silver may appear scarce because folk are buried in it for the last 15 years (strong hands, right). They are not rushing to the refineries to turn in grandma's tea set or that sterling necklace an old boyfriend gave them. Get Silver over $50 and it will be everywhere. The higher the price, the more that will be available. Do with that as you will.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
As I recall, premiums weren't only high on silver eagles. It was silver across the board. Am I wrong?
http://ProofCollection.Net
.
You think housing prices peaked in 2007 and then declined because the prices were too high ?
I guess you forgot about the credit expansion leading into 2007 and then contraction and tightening mortgage standards that resulted after that. It was a classic case of credit expansion and contraction, not "high prices".
The most effective cure for high prices is a recession or depression.
.
Here's some interesting tidbits from a trading (not gold bug) newsletter I get.
.
This chart is the Dow divided by gold.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Yes. We created strategies to get anyone and everyone into a home which pushed prices higher. When prices became high enough supply exceed demand and prices dropped, resulting in a recession as losses snowballed and folk lost money. The cure for high prices was high prices as this encouraged folk to sell increasing supply over demand. Folk were paying premiums to get into those houses and were later accepting discounts to get out. Same exact thing happened in 2011 with silver and 2000 with .com stocks.
I didn't forget any of that.
The high prices come first, then the (decline) recession.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Wow, you remember a different reality. The over-supply was not caused by high prices. It was caused by the sudden lack of credit for buyers after the the bank collapse which caused prices to go down a little bit which then put homeowners under water who then started walking away which started a snowball effect of increasing supply.
Clearly you did.
You're talking too generally. High prices of what? Just real estate? Or other things like gold? We had $1900 gold in 2011 which was a high not seen again for 9 more years, that didn't cause a recession. High real estate prices do not cause recessions FWIW, real estate prices are not high where they are now. Today's prices (at least in my market) reflect a 4% annual appreciation rate since 2000. Prices only seem high because of the recovery after being suppressed for about a decade after the 2008 banking crisis. Anyone who bought a home more than 2 years ago (in most markets) has decent equity to withstand any momentary 5-10% price dip so there will be no excess supply of houses hitting the market to drive housing prices down significantly.
http://ProofCollection.Net
Hope we see $2800 again and believe you're right. I'll be buying at $2800.
No. My reality is truth. Home prices stopped increasing in early 2006. Homes were no longer seeing offers over ask. Current owners began to place their homes on the market and builders rushed to finish their starts. Increased supply brought about by high prices. Lenders began to pull credit in early 2007 when prices began to fall and the first bank failed in early 2008. Credit contracted because lenders were beginning to see losses.
The chart below will prove my timetable of events.
High real estate prices do not cause recessions FWIW, real estate prices are not high where they are now. Today's prices (at least in my market) reflect a 4% annual appreciation rate since 2000. Prices only seem high because of the recovery after being suppressed for about a decade after the 2008 banking crisis. Anyone who bought a home more than 2 years ago (in most markets) has decent equity to withstand any momentary 5-10% price dip so there will be no excess supply of houses hitting the market to drive housing prices down significantly.
A collapse in real estate prices can cause a recession because the building of and occupying of a home heavily affects the economy through the numerous industries involved in home building, development, financing, furnishings, ect. And i never said, nor do I believe now, that residential real estate prices are exceedingly high.
Leading indicators rolled over in mid 2007.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
$3325!!!
how many months until we get back to 3500?
IMO home prices are too high and reflect moving from 2020 to now according to the graph of the HPI a move of 120/220 index change or 54% increase in less than 5 years.
Maybe housing is up only 4% per year since 2000, but the last 5 years they are 10% per year and making it very hard for a large number of people to buy a home these days, especially with 6%+ mortgage rates.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
I was a real estate agent during this time and still am. The party would have kept going if the lending hadn't contracted and banks hadn't started failed. I didn't have buyers complaining about prices, I had buyers unable to get loans.
edited to add:
Prices don't matter when you think prices are headed even higher. Who cares if the price of gold is $3300 if you think it will be $4000 next month?
You have to compare housing prices to rents. Not all markets are the same but in my market, rents are fairly equivalent between owning (mtg pmt) and renting so it would be hard for there to be any meaningful drop in prices or investors will snap them up and rent them out. And if people can't buy a house they end up renting so the housing need doesn't disappear. And as rents have never gone down, dropping rental rates is not something to anticipate.
http://ProofCollection.Net
So you have shown rents are also increasing 8-10% a year the last 5 years. Are incomes?
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
gold 3350!
gold was overbought at $2900, yet here we are, overbought once again. I personally expect a big correction, but I expect it to be temporary.
Gold shines as the dollar falters
Peter Schiff once again at his best. Like him or not he called the 08 crisis and he called where we are with gold.
Schiff: "Yeah, I think it’s becoming clear to people who didn’t see it before that gold is the new safe haven."
Congrats to those here who listened to him earlier and saw it as a safe haven much earlier.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Any Central Banker who put 20% of their CB's assets into a non-interest bearing asset like gold would be fired.
Yet prices show he would be Time Magazine's Investor Of The Year.
If a central banker sold half of his nation's gold at a price bottom would he be fired? LOL
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Not if he invested in interest-earning assets that generated decent returns, no.
Gold on the cover of this week's BARRON'S:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-gold-price-investing-portfolio-9f97260c?mod=past_editions
temporary top established by barron's article
i think i can nail down the day and time of the publication decision
Pretty sure the top was created the morning Cramer was sitting on CNBC Morning Bell talking about the Costco gold bars he had been buying with his 2% executive/ 2% CC cash back discounts. THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
And if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his a$$ on the ground.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
As Jim Rickards points out - gold has outperformed stocks by a wide margin this year, but it has also outperformed stocks for the past twenty-five years.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Pretty sure that the central bankers don't pay much attention to Barrons or Cramer other than to tell them what to say.
I knew it would happen.
Yes, but not for 10 or12 years, or 30 years and certainly not for 40 or 50. These are great games.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
a good run is a good run no matter how wide your chart.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Way to cherry-pick the start and end times !!
Gold has a losing track record using rolling time periods which corrects for timing bias.
The long-term return of gold, depending on when you start/end, is ~4%. Comparable to a bond fund.
25 years is a pretty big cherry. Likely covers the time frame most, if not all, here have chosen gold over stocks. Isn't that the cherry that matters here?
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
The cherry was the warning given in 2011. Dang, that tasted good.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Buy low, sell high. I never had much respect for you buy and hold guys. Boom, Bust cycles are great not only for transferring wealth from the middle to the top, they work well for individuals in the middle who can see them and trade them accordingly (thank you incompetent FED).
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
back to a familiar pattern
up 10, down ten, going nowhere with small moves
congratulations to gold 3325
still
@derryb said "Buy low, sell high. I never had much respect for you buy and hold guys"
I assume few on this board are truly buy and hold. Personally, I invest for the long term, make very few trades, and periodically rebalance. My lifetime risk adjusted return has been good but not exceptional. With that said, I'm not sure if I know any market timers who have done better. (they are out there of course; a few who are exceptionally savvy; others who are just plan lucky)
You make it sound so easy.
http://ProofCollection.Net
It's never as easy as it sounds.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Especially since you've been holding the same gun safe full of gutter metal since 2011.
THKS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
You and your buddy think you know me. Like with most things, you don't.
Just curious, is it jealousy or fear?
PS needed to get a much larger safe, I'm adding tin foil to my stack.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
one doesn't have to hit the tops or the bottoms to be successful. One simply has to sell for more than they paid. Trying to hit a top is just greed.
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
Again, so easy to say.
Is this a top? I'm up 2-3x on most of my gold holdings. Should I sell or am I greedy if I hold on for more?
http://ProofCollection.Net
are India and Pakistan gold's next black swan?
Reckless faith in the dollar's strength is reckless. Tariff proposals have demonstrated this.
I had that problem once then I came to my senses and traded in all that gutter for the metal of kings. It was a no brainer so to speak. THKS!.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
It appears there are plenty who wanted to sell in May and go away.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
.> @Goldminers said:
The euphoria of 2 weeks ago was palpable.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
congratulations to gold! 3225!
negative milestones!
the dollar was dropping hard and we had tariff fears to eat
the earnings are whatever, but the guidance is wacky. but the market is up! so the dollar is up!
the euphoria on the dollar is here
God bless the US Dollar. RGDS!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
actually i'd love for the dollar to rise for a few months => but i'm thinking it's going to drop hard with the markets when inflation hits
be nicer if we weren't in the financial trouble the country is in