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Congratulations to gold - New all time highs! $3500+!!!

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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 34,649 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 17, 2025 8:49PM

    the treasury does not buy its treasuries back. (so?)

    when X sells treasuries it is on the market. they are paid in dollars by the purchaser (not the treasury here). they are no more buying dollars than burger king is buying dollars.

    when the seller gets money, option 1 is to have it kept in usd and option 2 is to sell the dollar and buy another currency (presumably to repatriate in local currency)

    ====

    the dollar index is a weighted index of exchange rates for 6 currencies against the dollar

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,125 ✭✭✭✭✭

    if reluctance of buyers causes interest rates to rise above the level that the Federal Reserve wants, the Federal Reserve must step in and essentially "print" money to buy bonds and take them off the market. In this case, the value of the Dollar is diluted and the dollar index comes under downward pressure.

    It seems that the general expectation is that the Federal Reserve will have to (in the somewhat near future) "print" more money to take bonds off the market. Otherwise a sell-off in bonds will occur as countries try to unload more of them just as buyers become more reluctant.

    It's not just the bond market that the Fed will have to print dollars to cover. Think about the $100+ trillion of unfunded liabilities that no one wants to give up. All of that will be keyboarded into existence when the need arises.

    It seems pretty obvious to me that this will cause both gold and stocks to climb higher and faster. It won't even matter what happens to the dollar index.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's not just the bond market that the Fed will have to print dollars to cover. Think about the $100+ trillion of >unfunded liabilities that no one wants to give up. All of that will be keyboarded into existence when the need >arises.

    If AI is real...and it leads to a 1% boost to real GDP....that problem completely vanishes.

    Not saying it will...just that predictions 30-50 years out are nuts.

    After 9/11 who thought we'd go 24 years without another attack ? Y2K ? Deficit spending ?

  • derrybderryb Posts: 37,494 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    It's not just the bond market that the Fed will have to print dollars to cover. Think about the $100+ trillion of >unfunded liabilities that no one wants to give up. All of that will be keyboarded into existence when the need >arises.

    It's called currency debasement and it has been well underway for decades, especially since 2008.

    After 9/11 who thought we'd go 24 years without another attack ? Y2K ? Deficit spending ?

    There are many forms of attack that don't involve tall buildings.

  • WingsruleWingsrule Posts: 3,035 ✭✭✭✭

    Has there been a country that has not debased their currency, or experienced inflation?

  • derrybderryb Posts: 37,494 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Wingsrule said:
    Has there been a country that has not debased their currency, or experienced inflation?

    china

  • GoldFinger1969GoldFinger1969 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    china

    Tell me you are joking. It's a controlled currency akin to those old Roach Motels or the Hotel California -- you can check in, but you can never leave. :D

    They devalued their currency 3 times in 2015.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 37,494 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:
    china

    Tell me you are joking. It's a controlled currency akin to those old Roach Motels or the Hotel California -- you can check in, but you can never leave. :D

    You asked, I gave a correct answer.

    They devalued their currency 3 times in 2015.

    And US inflation is not doing it every week, month and year? LOL

  • RedneckHBRedneckHB Posts: 19,571 ✭✭✭✭✭

    .

    @derryb said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:
    china

    Tell me you are joking. It's a controlled currency akin to those old Roach Motels or the Hotel California -- you can check in, but you can never leave. :D

    You asked, I gave a correct answer.

    So you are NOT joking in your answer that China has never debased it's currency or experienced inflation?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 37,494 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 19, 2025 8:21AM

    @RedneckHB said:
    .

    @derryb said:

    @GoldFinger1969 said:

    @derryb said:
    china

    Tell me you are joking. It's a controlled currency akin to those old Roach Motels or the Hotel California -- you can check in, but you can never leave. :D

    You asked, I gave a correct answer.

    So you are NOT joking in your answer that China has never debased it's currency or experienced inflation?

    China devalues its currency against the dollar often to keep its exports moving. It is not the same as the US devaluing its dollars by increasing the money supply. Dollar devaluation is a permanent disease. Devaluation against a competing currency can be a smart, controlled, temporary move to boost ones economy; it apparently works well for China.

    Inflation is a global event that no nation can avoid if it is involved in global trade. It is a result fo mismanagement of currencies by economic powerhouses. However, China seems to have inflation very much under control.

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,731 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    the treasury does not buy its treasuries back. (so?)

    US Fed buying bonds secretly? Here’s how it will impact investors, Gold and Bitcoin

    In a move that has raised subtle alarms in financial circles, the U.S. Federal Reserve quietly purchased $43.6 billion worth of U.S. Treasurys over just four days last week.

    Read more at:
    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-fed-buying-bonds-secretly-heres-how-it-will-impact-investors-gold-and-bitcoin/articleshow/121251784.cms

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 34,649 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the federal reserve is not the treasury

    QE was the fed res buying treasuries and mbs

    neither point addresses that:

    the treasury does not buy its treasuries back

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 4,285 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 20, 2025 3:41AM

    I> @ProofCollection said:

    @MsMorrisine said:
    the treasury does not buy its treasuries back. (so?)

    US Fed buying bonds secretly? Here’s how it will impact investors, Gold and Bitcoin

    In a move that has raised subtle alarms in financial circles, the U.S. Federal Reserve quietly purchased $43.6 billion worth of U.S. Treasurys over just four days last week.

    I think the Fed had short duration, lower interest rate treasuries that matured, and is using the proceeds to buy longer duration, higher interest bonds to replace them. I don't think it is additional money printing, or QE. The result of increased long bond demand is that long rates tend to drop a little. This may be an effort by the Fed to slightly slow down the market volatility which is becoming concerned about long rates increasing due to the debt downgrade.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,125 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Why is the Fed in the business of owning US bonds in the first place?

    Without full transparency, nobody knows where the Fed's money comes from, whether it's from turnover of a given maturity of bonds or from money printing. It's a shell game and nobody wins except the bankers.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 4,285 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Why is the Fed in the business of owning US bonds in the first place?

    Without full transparency, nobody knows where the Fed's money comes from, whether it's from turnover of a given maturity of bonds or from money printing. It's a shell game and nobody wins except the bankers.

    The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Fed the right to own US bonds. Not a secret.

    The Fed board of governors provide more information than anyone has time to sort through, but much is available.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TREAST

    This is a fairly good summary of the history:

    https://lawforeverything.com/1913-federal-reserve-act/

  • derrybderryb Posts: 37,494 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 20, 2025 2:07PM

    @jmski52 said:
    Why is the Fed in the business of owning US bonds in the first place?

    So gov has someone to sell their debt to. They scratch each other's back at the expense of value to the currency.

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 23,125 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Fed the right to own US bonds. Not a secret.

    That doesn't really answer my question, "Why is the Fed in the business of owning US bonds in the first place?"

    The Fed is made up of privately owned bank members, but we are often told that the Fed is a quasi-governmental agency. So which is it? If it's a government agency, why would the government be allowed to buy its own bonds?

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 6,343 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Why is the Fed in the business of owning US bonds in the first place?

    Without full transparency, nobody knows where the Fed's money comes from, whether it's from turnover of a given maturity of bonds or from money printing. It's a shell game and nobody wins except the bankers.

    Perhaps the time has come to exit the bunker? You too could be winning, Jim. RGDS!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
    BOOMIN!™

  • ProofCollectionProofCollection Posts: 6,731 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 20, 2025 5:11PM

    @jmski52 said:
    The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Fed the right to own US bonds. Not a secret.

    That doesn't really answer my question, "Why is the Fed in the business of owning US bonds in the first place?"

    The Fed is made up of privately owned bank members, but we are often told that the Fed is a quasi-governmental agency. So which is it? If it's a government agency, why would the government be allowed to buy its own bonds?

    The federal reserve is a private entity just like federal express, it can do what it wants, and it does.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 34,649 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited May 20, 2025 10:40PM

    the federal reserve, before qe, held treasuries usually as collateral when banks ask for frn

    for qe, the fed did their not literally money printing and bought treasuries and mbs and anything else? they put the money printed, on the ledgers of bank excess reserves. the excess reserves were meant to keep the banks from inadequate balance sheet strength as asset prices tumbled. thus we now have stress tests to protect from similar but bound to happen again situations

    as part of tarp they bought "troubled assets" and this is another way mbs got on the balance sheet

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 34,649 ✭✭✭✭✭

    $3300! maybe we see 3325 in a month or two!

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
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