The higher gold spot goes, the likely lower numismatic premiums will be for gold coins. I would say that is for more common dates and all. True rarities never track to spot but high spot prices probably will shine a spotlight on them. But I work with gold more on the sidelines. Those who specialize in it, especially over decades, will be real authorities.
Friends I know on the bourse are saying they wb using more aggressive markup factors on them as gold advances. Like a higher spread between bid and retail. Jimmy (who has been in bull mkts b4) has taken about half of his off the market in anticipation of higher BV / retail markup spreads. Got Pocket?
So my take get all the money but keep some if Mkt surges way up.
@coinbuf said:
Yes to a point, when gold spot was 2K an MS65 was selling for $500-$700 (or more) over spot. Today those same >MS65's are selling for maybe $100 over spot sometimes even a bit less. Pretty much anything under MS65 (keeping >in mind we are talking generic dates) is just a few dollars over spot.
I get why the premium would fall in %-terms and also in absolute dollars....but why SO MUCH ? Any thoughts, CB ?
The rapid rise in gold spot prices has evaporated the numismatic premiums for generic gold, rare and many branch >mint gold coins still see a premium currently. But if spot continues up at this pace numismatic premiums will >continue to evaporate. I don't follow the MS66 level much but have seen a few being offered in the $4,500 +/- >range recently, if gold spot goes to 5K the numismatic premium for even MS66 level coins would be absorbed into >the spot price.
What I am having trouble understanding is why the same dollar amount can't sustain at higher gold prices (meaning the premium falls in %-terms). During Covid, surcharges stuck on ASEs for years. Yet with gold, the rising gold price is KO'ing the premiums.
Now if the spot price were to slow down or stagnate at the 3K level for awhile we might see some premium for >MS65 coins reemerge, although I doubt we'd see the same level of premiums as when gold was 2K. At least that is >my view from a limited participation in the gold market.
@jt88 said:
Gold is closing 3k today but the volume is just little above average. It might go back down or up for couple times. >Gold needs to stay above 3K for 3 days continually to validate the break out.
This could be the strongest gold move since the 1970's, even beating the 2001-11 run.
I see no interest on the financial/business shows. I even contacted a media guy I know and offered to show up with some coins....Zzzzzzzzz.
At the Texas Coin Show in Grapevine this past weekend, a dealer had PCGS MS64 $20 Saints for spot - $2,888 with gold a bit under $3,000. In the past 35 years I have been a dealer, the only pre-1933 US gold you could buy for spot was the damaged, polished, ex-jewelry coins.
Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
@safari_dude said:
Remember when the experts said no one would buy gas at $1a gallon? Then $2 a gallon? Then $3 a gallon? Hmmmmm….My how times have changed!🤔😉
People have had no choice, but inflation and monetary incomes, but not totally real incomes, have supported that price change.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
At current record gold spot these have zero numismatic value, I wonder how far under gold spot the dealer bought these MS64 $20 Saints to sell them at $110~ish below spot ?
@Frankcoins said:
At the Texas Coin Show in Grapevine this past weekend, a dealer had PCGS MS64 $20 Saints for spot - $2,888 with gold a bit under $3,000. In the past 35 years I have been a dealer, the only pre-1933 US gold you could buy for spot was the damaged, polished, ex-jewelry coins.
@Frankcoins said:
At the Texas Coin Show in Grapevine this past weekend, a dealer had PCGS MS64 $20 Saints for spot - $2,888 with >gold a bit under $3,000. In the past 35 years I have been a dealer, the only pre-1933 US gold you could buy for spot >was the damaged, polished, ex-jewelry coins.
Price of the coin vs. price of gold...right ? No adjustment for the 3.25% less than 1 ounce that a Double Eagle contains ?
@coinbuf said:
Yes to a point, when gold spot was 2K an MS65 was selling for $500-$700 (or more) over spot. Today those same >MS65's are selling for maybe $100 over spot sometimes even a bit less. Pretty much anything under MS65 (keeping >in mind we are talking generic dates) is just a few dollars over spot.
I get why the premium would fall in %-terms and also in absolute dollars....but why SO MUCH ? Any thoughts, CB ?
I am far from an expert on gold, but my very uneducated guess is that its due to the rapid rise in the spot price which the numismatic market has had trouble keeping up with. That is why I think a pause in the spot price for 6-8 months could provide some relief and confidence that there is not a huge correction looming. Which might allow some of the premium on MS65, and perhaps a small premium on MS64, generics to reemerge. I have been hearing that there are lots of sellers but fewer buyers, I suspect that is just a function of greed (some trying to not miss the top) and fear of a significant correction. Like the bubble on commemorative coins that happened in the late 80's folks are concerned about being left without a chair if the music stops.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
@coinbuf said:
Like the bubble on commemorative coins that happened in the late 80's folks are concerned about being left >without a chair if the music stops.
In the past, when the premium evaporated, the price of bullion fell sharply.
@Custerlost said:
Makes population estimates worthless.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material >out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, >especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
(1) So you think that lots of sub-AU coins are being melted ? Is there any real evidence for this ? I've seen posters in forums speculating they think this happens and I do have a 1979 or 1980 piece which implied the same thing would have happened to lots of silver coins had the price of silver not fallen back bigtime after the Hunt's Silver Fiasco.
(2) If lower-quality coins are more rare, they still may be available in such quantities that they are still not going to get much if any numismatic premium. Look at the Fairmont Collection -- over 400,000 coins in total, 2% certified and graded, 98% graded as non-Fairmont or not even submitted.
@Mr Lindy said:
At current record gold spot these have zero numismatic value, I wonder how far under gold spot the dealer bought these MS64 $20 Saints to sell them at $110~ish below spot ?
They are not $110 below spot. They were AT spot $2985 x 0.9675
Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
Forgot to mention my Olympic gold coins. They also were smelted. There is absolutely very little post1986 US numismatic gold that will survive 3-5K gold value unless someone is in a coma, totally brain dead, doing a rip van winkle, or just simply forgot what they had. The exception might be stackers who believe they will live long enough to see even higher gold.
Paid near $500 for this one when gold was around 1900. My guess is this type of material will track bullion. But if melting occurs perhaps we'll see premium prices for this type of graded gold that remains in the years to come?
I hate to say this, but with all of the damage that the American Economy, and the American Dollar, is taking I can see Gold making a run towards $4,000.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
Transaction costs are a lot less with etf stocks like GLD. Probably dealers will be telling sellers walking into their shops with type or even better date gold that the premiums have evaporated. One area dealer was quoting 94% of melt on Saints, etc. that another dealer looked at buying them for a little more and sending them off to Anacs to list them on ebay. Gem Saints sometimes come unexpectedly as I've found out. Just check what some type gold in 63-65 and more are selling for on ebay, some impressive results.
@Custerlost said:
Makes population estimates worthless.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material >out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, >especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
(1) So you think that lots of sub-AU coins are being melted ? Is there any real evidence for this ? I've seen posters in forums speculating they think this happens and I do have a 1979 or 1980 piece which implied the same thing would have happened to lots of silver coins had the price of silver not fallen back bigtime after the Hunt's Silver Fiasco.
Not sure if it qualifiers as "real evidence" in your view, but I've heard of a lot of junky cleaned/xf gold being sent to the refineries the past six months in dealer groups on Facebook. I don't really have a reason to doubt that, and it makes sense to take 97% for junk when decent ms coins are being sold for melt, or 99%.
@Custerlost said:
Makes population estimates worthless. >
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material >out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, >especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
(1) The experience of Fairmont says the opposite: lower-quality commons are MORE common then we believe thanks to mini- and mega-hoards.
(2) Most population estimates (at least by quality researchers like Roger Burdette) include "haircuts" to eliminate double-counting.
(3) If you go back over reference books and Population Census from years or decades ago...they UNDERSTATED the supply in virtually all grades.
@PeakRarities said:
Not sure if it qualifiers as "real evidence" in your view, but I've heard of a lot of junky cleaned/xf gold being sent to >the refineries the past six months in dealer groups on Facebook. I don't really have a reason to doubt that, and it >makes sense to take 97% for junk when decent ms coins are being sold for melt, or 99%.
If you say it is happening, PR, I trust your sources and your integrity. It also seems logical, too.
We really haven't seen many in-depth articles or discussions in magazines (not even many Forum Threads) talking about the effect of rising gold prices on previously-considered numismatic coins. As their premiums fade, the incentive for what you cite increases.
Are we losing cheaper, inexpensive numismatic common coins that many of us started out on ? Will the next generation be able to buy them ? Once melted, they are LOST forever (just like the 1933 DEs and other coins melted in the 1930's)....do people/collectors/dealers care about that ?
It's something the Silver People were going to have to consider in 1980 when silver went up 50-fold in a decade but the spike ended abruptly and the normalized, average price was much less than the peak price so the fear of MSD and other coin destruction never materialized (there was a 1980 NY Times article that I may have posted here talking about this; if I didn't post it, I'm sure I can find it if anybody wants to read it).
Today, the gold price isn't spiking...it's just rising STRONGLY...sizeable corrections seem to have ceased (closer to the 1970's price action than that from 2002-12)...and the price isn't giving domestic or international or even less-developed market buyers sticker shock. It's the Frog and the Boiling Pot except now it's gold and not a frog.
@BillJones said:
I think that $3,000 gold will ruin the market for common date gold coins. It will squeeze a lot of smaller collectors out. My comment to collectors who think that this is cool, be careful what you wish for. The higher the gold content, the worse it will be for the numismatic market for those items.
I understand why the premium is very high when the price of gold falls or collapses...but I'm still wondering why a healthy premium doesn't persist for common date coins like MS-65 Saints. They had about a 15-20% premium when gold was about $2,000 (MS-65 ~ $2,400)....but for whatever reason that premium is now down to under 10% so with gold at $3,000 the MS-65 will cost you maybe $3,200, give-or-take.
If dealers could jack up silver ASEs during Covid, why can't a normal spread be maintained on pre-1933 gold ?
There is no analogy between ASE and generic US gold, as a collectible. An ASE is still a low budget purchase. You can't even buy lunch or dinner at many restaurants at this cost.
My explanation would be that generic MS-65 Saints aren't very competitive as a collectible, but I don't know how many collectors think that way.
MS-65 saints are really common as a type. If you're someone who is primarily or only interested in US gold, it may or won't matter. If you're the type of collector prioritizing liquidity and resale, it may not matter either. Or you may find a cheaper gold option, like NCLT, world gold, or the same US gold coin a few grades lower. There is no practical difference to most buyers of this coinage.
But if you're someone who collects both US gold and other coinage, there are a lot more interesting coins for similar or the same prices.
As gold goes higher savvy players ratchet premiums up -
Real, experienced Players will be retailing them at healthy markup over cost. Their target market will be rich investors with money. No free ride…at melt lol. Quality PQ specimens will be marked up higher. Rich clients do pay the money. Premium over spot will increase in a hot market. What’s called pricing ahead will evolve (high markup keeper coins in anticipation of higher gold BV ahead). In a real bull market with quickly increasing prices, some players out for the jugular will start pricing ahead of sheet.
Adjusting for inflation, the price of gold right now is about the same as it was at its 1980 high. And for those with long memories, you’ll recall what happened after that high. Will it happen again? Who knows.
@skier07 said:
I have a handful of common date PCGS 55 Liberty half eagles from the 40’s and 50’s that I bought ten years ago. >They’re worth less today.
Gold has more than doubled since then, so I presume you paid a nice premium to the gold spot price at the time and their supply eventually increased (hoards ?) which resulted in the premiums dissipating and even losing you money, right ?
@cinque1543 said:
Adjusting for inflation, the price of gold right now is about the same as it was at its 1980 high. And for those with >long memories, you’ll recall what happened after that high. Will it happen again? Who knows.
No similarities of the underlying supply-demand fundamentals. Gold had been artificially held back in price for decades...it went up 20-fold in 9 years during the 1970's. Gold is only up a triple from the 2010 lows in 15 years.
Gold is much more affordable globally to hundreds of millions of potential buyers than 45-50 years ago.
Central Banks are buyers, not sellers. Ditto SWFs, hedge funds, and other institutional investors.
Gold is likely headed to $5,000 and I wouldn't rule out $7,500 by 2040.
@skier07 said:
I have a handful of common date PCGS 55 Liberty half eagles from the 40’s and 50’s that I bought ten years ago. >They’re worth less today.
Gold has more than doubled since then, so I presume you paid a nice premium to the gold spot price at the time and their supply eventually increased (hoards ?) which resulted in the premiums dissipating and even losing you money, right ?
My average purchase price was ~$875 in 2015 and 2016 and if I was to sell them today I would be lucky to get $850. The coins with gold doubling have no premium and between Fairmont and all the information on the internet people know that they are not rare. I can buy lower grade uncirculated Saints today for $100 above melt.
The $64k question at least for me is if gold stabilizes in price will the premium slowly start to increase? That’s probably worthy of a new thread.
@skier07 said:
I have a handful of common date PCGS 55 Liberty half eagles from the 40’s and 50’s that I bought ten years ago. >They’re worth less today.
Gold has more than doubled since then, so I presume you paid a nice premium to the gold spot price at the time and their supply eventually increased (hoards ?) which resulted in the premiums dissipating and even losing you money, right ?
My average purchase price was ~$875 in 2015 and 2016 and if I was to sell them today I would be lucky to get $850. The coins with gold doubling have no premium and between Fairmont and all the information on the internet people know that they are not rare. I can buy lower grade uncirculated Saints today for $100 above melt.
The $64k question at least for me is if gold stabilizes in price will the premium slowly start to increase? That’s probably worthy of a new thread.
Can you give a specific example of a coin you purchased in 2015-2016 that would realize the same price today?
The longer I live the more convincing proofs I see of this truth, that God governs in the affairs of men. And if a sparrow cannot fall to the ground without His notice is it possible for an empire to rise without His aid? Benjamin Franklin
I was in a coin shop yesterday a watched a dealer buy 2 NGC 65 Saints and 2 66 NGC Saint's (cost?). When the seller left the dealer sold the best 66 (I got to give my opinion also) to my friend for $3700. The coin was as original and mark free as it could possibly come. I would have thought it was a 67. That's probably a $500+ premium. I was even tempted to buy one of the 65's that looked like a 66 to me.
I think he got a very good deal. Do you? I won't tell him what you say.
@Custerlost said:
Makes population estimates worthless.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material >out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, >especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
(1) So you think that lots of sub-AU coins are being melted ? Is there any real evidence for this ? I've seen posters in forums speculating they think this happens and I do have a 1979 or 1980 piece which implied the same thing would have happened to lots of silver coins had the price of silver not fallen back bigtime after the Hunt's Silver Fiasco.
Not sure if it qualifiers as "real evidence" in your view, but I've heard of a lot of junky cleaned/xf gold being sent to the refineries the past six months in dealer groups on Facebook. I don't really have a reason to doubt that, and it makes sense to take 97% for junk when decent ms coins are being sold for melt, or 99%.
I hit the Detroit area shows nearly every week. I don't see any pre-1933 quarter or half eagles in EF/AU with an ask anywhere near melt. I find it hard to believe that dealers are sending these off to refiners. Maybe the worst ultra-polished jewelry coins or severely damaged/soldered coins. I'd personally love a bunch of the worst to end up melted but I still imagine that scenario is a rarity. JMHO
@Walkerfan said:
Not interested in buying gold at the present time.
TOO unpredictable, IMHO.
Wish I'd have bought some in the past.
Nothing unpredictable at all about the current price of gold. I have been buying for years, the bulk of the buying is heavily in the $1100 - $1200 range with small bites along the way since. I am glad I'm not starting to purchase now but I still think there's more upside yet and pull backs will be shallow and short.
@Custerlost said:
Makes population estimates worthless.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material >out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, >especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
(1) So you think that lots of sub-AU coins are being melted ? Is there any real evidence for this ? I've seen posters in forums speculating they think this happens and I do have a 1979 or 1980 piece which implied the same thing would have happened to lots of silver coins had the price of silver not fallen back bigtime after the Hunt's Silver Fiasco.
Not sure if it qualifiers as "real evidence" in your view, but I've heard of a lot of junky cleaned/xf gold being sent to the refineries the past six months in dealer groups on Facebook. I don't really have a reason to doubt that, and it makes sense to take 97% for junk when decent ms coins are being sold for melt, or 99%.
I hit the Detroit area shows nearly every week. I don't see any pre-1933 quarter or half eagles in EF/AU with an ask anywhere near melt. I find it hard to believe that dealers are sending these off to refiners. Maybe the worst ultra-polished jewelry coins or severely damaged/soldered coins. I'd personally love a bunch of the worst to end up melted but I still imagine that scenario is a rarity. JMHO
Mark
While I'm not doubting your experiences in your local area nor do I have any knowledge if "junk" gold is being melted or not; but you need only look to the BST to find half eagles at melt. And these are not really junk/damaged/soldered coins either; here are a few examples. Just for reference as I type this one on-line reference shows melt for $812.
@GoldFinger1969 said:
Gold is likely headed to $5,000 and I wouldn't rule out $7,500 by 2040.
I think it's not the gold that is rising in value, I think it's the decreasing value of our dollar.
For an example, a $4.00 box of crackers now costs you $10.00. The crackers are not anymore valuable, it's our shrinking dollar And there are now less crackers in the box due to shrinkflation...at least an ounce of gold is still an ounce.
@Custerlost said:
Makes population estimates worthless.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material >out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, >especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
(1) So you think that lots of sub-AU coins are being melted ? Is there any real evidence for this ? I've seen posters in forums speculating they think this happens and I do have a 1979 or 1980 piece which implied the same thing would have happened to lots of silver coins had the price of silver not fallen back bigtime after the Hunt's Silver Fiasco.
Not sure if it qualifiers as "real evidence" in your view, but I've heard of a lot of junky cleaned/xf gold being sent to the refineries the past six months in dealer groups on Facebook. I don't really have a reason to doubt that, and it makes sense to take 97% for junk when decent ms coins are being sold for melt, or 99%.
I hit the Detroit area shows nearly every week. I don't see any pre-1933 quarter or half eagles in EF/AU with an ask anywhere near melt. I find it hard to believe that dealers are sending these off to refiners. Maybe the worst ultra-polished jewelry coins or severely damaged/soldered coins. I'd personally love a bunch of the worst to end up melted but I still imagine that scenario is a rarity. JMHO
Mark
While I'm not doubting your experiences in your local area nor do I have any knowledge if "junk" gold is being melted or not; but you need only look to the BST to find half eagles at melt. And these are not really junk/damaged/soldered coins either; here are a few examples. Just for reference as I type this one on-line reference shows melt for $812.
I sold 4 oz. of junk raw pre 1933 gold (one double eagle, two eagles, and the rest were half eagles) for 96% of spot last week. The coins were the worst of the worst but they were still gold. They were ex jewelry and were either polished or had badly damaged rims. Of course gold went up $100 the very next day.
Put in a very lowball offer on a 1911-S saint in MS65 and forgot about it.
Got a congratulations e-mail last week and was confused.
Numismatic gold takes quite a hit when it's between spot & 2X spot during these times. (maybe even 2.5X spot)
I was surprised to see this on eBay as a "Buy it Now" for $1,465 + $5.65 ship = $1,470.65.
And just as gold prices exceeded $3,400 and put the melt value of it at $1,654.30 :
.
Now the question is, will I actually receive the item as shown ? If not, I assume eBay will take care of the buyer (me).
I can confirm that there are indeed dealers in my area that are sending pre-22 gold for melt. I'm sure it has happened along the way, but I don't remember it happening to this degree in 45 years.
I probably need to buy some at melt but I figure as soon as I do, gold will have a correction and I don't want to do that to everyone, lol!
If the price of gold gets high enough, whether that's now or at a higher price, I wouldn't consider it surprising if gold coins no one really wants as a collectible sell for less than melt.
Non-US gold does or did sell for melt for years. There isn't any reason this can't or should not apply to generic US classic gold either. (Very) common US classic gold (high quality or not) are "widgets", with potentially a lot more supply than collectors (as opposed to metal buyers) wanting it as a collectible.
There are nowhere near enough collectors to buy all the 1904 LH DE or 1924 Saints. There aren't enough collectors who can afford it or want it. It's potentially not much different for other still common coins with a much lower supply too.
Comments
I have alot too. But I like them...many unique types....a bunch of Saint-Gaudens retros, too.
The higher gold spot goes, the likely lower numismatic premiums will be for gold coins. I would say that is for more common dates and all. True rarities never track to spot but high spot prices probably will shine a spotlight on them. But I work with gold more on the sidelines. Those who specialize in it, especially over decades, will be real authorities.
Friends I know on the bourse are saying they wb using more aggressive markup factors on them as gold advances. Like a higher spread between bid and retail. Jimmy (who has been in bull mkts b4) has taken about half of his off the market in anticipation of higher BV / retail markup spreads. Got Pocket?
So my take get all the money but keep some if Mkt surges way up.
I get why the premium would fall in %-terms and also in absolute dollars....but why SO MUCH ? Any thoughts, CB ?
What I am having trouble understanding is why the same dollar amount can't sustain at higher gold prices (meaning the premium falls in %-terms). During Covid, surcharges stuck on ASEs for years. Yet with gold, the rising gold price is KO'ing the premiums.
Interesting thoughts, thanks CB !!
This could be the strongest gold move since the 1970's, even beating the 2001-11 run.
I see no interest on the financial/business shows. I even contacted a media guy I know and offered to show up with some coins....Zzzzzzzzz.
At the Texas Coin Show in Grapevine this past weekend, a dealer had PCGS MS64 $20 Saints for spot - $2,888 with gold a bit under $3,000. In the past 35 years I have been a dealer, the only pre-1933 US gold you could buy for spot was the damaged, polished, ex-jewelry coins.
Remember when the experts said no one would buy gas at $1a gallon? Then $2 a gallon? Then $3 a gallon? Hmmmmm….My how times have changed!🤔😉
People have had no choice, but inflation and monetary incomes, but not totally real incomes, have supported that price change.
At current record gold spot these have zero numismatic value, I wonder how far under gold spot the dealer bought these MS64 $20 Saints to sell them at $110~ish below spot ?
Price of the coin vs. price of gold...right ? No adjustment for the 3.25% less than 1 ounce that a Double Eagle contains ?
“Out there” is a bit vague.
I am far from an expert on gold, but my very uneducated guess is that its due to the rapid rise in the spot price which the numismatic market has had trouble keeping up with. That is why I think a pause in the spot price for 6-8 months could provide some relief and confidence that there is not a huge correction looming. Which might allow some of the premium on MS65, and perhaps a small premium on MS64, generics to reemerge. I have been hearing that there are lots of sellers but fewer buyers, I suspect that is just a function of greed (some trying to not miss the top) and fear of a significant correction. Like the bubble on commemorative coins that happened in the late 80's folks are concerned about being left without a chair if the music stops.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Makes population estimates worthless.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
In the past, when the premium evaporated, the price of bullion fell sharply.
(1) So you think that lots of sub-AU coins are being melted ? Is there any real evidence for this ? I've seen posters in forums speculating they think this happens and I do have a 1979 or 1980 piece which implied the same thing would have happened to lots of silver coins had the price of silver not fallen back bigtime after the Hunt's Silver Fiasco.
(2) If lower-quality coins are more rare, they still may be available in such quantities that they are still not going to get much if any numismatic premium. Look at the Fairmont Collection -- over 400,000 coins in total, 2% certified and graded, 98% graded as non-Fairmont or not even submitted.
They are not $110 below spot. They were AT spot $2985 x 0.9675
Yes, all of my first spouse and eagles were smelted. I am sure others are doing the same.
Forgot to mention my Olympic gold coins. They also were smelted. There is absolutely very little post1986 US numismatic gold that will survive 3-5K gold value unless someone is in a coma, totally brain dead, doing a rip van winkle, or just simply forgot what they had. The exception might be stackers who believe they will live long enough to see even higher gold.
Paid near $500 for this one when gold was around 1900. My guess is this type of material will track bullion. But if melting occurs perhaps we'll see premium prices for this type of graded gold that remains in the years to come?
Are people actually melting numismatic gold, like your 1843 AU55 to convert into bars ?
I cashed out of boring modern commemorative gold in PCGS slabs and got zero slab premium at 2k ounce.
Glad I held onto stuff I liked as it still enjoy it.
Keeping what you like should be what is all about. Otherwise just buy plain Jane ingots or bars.
I hate to say this, but with all of the damage that the American Economy, and the American Dollar, is taking I can see Gold making a run towards $4,000.
Transaction costs are a lot less with etf stocks like GLD. Probably dealers will be telling sellers walking into their shops with type or even better date gold that the premiums have evaporated. One area dealer was quoting 94% of melt on Saints, etc. that another dealer looked at buying them for a little more and sending them off to Anacs to list them on ebay. Gem Saints sometimes come unexpectedly as I've found out. Just check what some type gold in 63-65 and more are selling for on ebay, some impressive results.
Haven asset right now with all this economic uncertainty. This may last awhile......
Not sure if it qualifiers as "real evidence" in your view, but I've heard of a lot of junky cleaned/xf gold being sent to the refineries the past six months in dealer groups on Facebook. I don't really have a reason to doubt that, and it makes sense to take 97% for junk when decent ms coins are being sold for melt, or 99%.
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(1) The experience of Fairmont says the opposite: lower-quality commons are MORE common then we believe thanks to mini- and mega-hoards.
(2) Most population estimates (at least by quality researchers like Roger Burdette) include "haircuts" to eliminate double-counting.
(3) If you go back over reference books and Population Census from years or decades ago...they UNDERSTATED the supply in virtually all grades.
If you say it is happening, PR, I trust your sources and your integrity. It also seems logical, too.
We really haven't seen many in-depth articles or discussions in magazines (not even many Forum Threads) talking about the effect of rising gold prices on previously-considered numismatic coins. As their premiums fade, the incentive for what you cite increases.
Are we losing cheaper, inexpensive numismatic common coins that many of us started out on ? Will the next generation be able to buy them ? Once melted, they are LOST forever (just like the 1933 DEs and other coins melted in the 1930's)....do people/collectors/dealers care about that ?
It's something the Silver People were going to have to consider in 1980 when silver went up 50-fold in a decade but the spike ended abruptly and the normalized, average price was much less than the peak price so the fear of MSD and other coin destruction never materialized (there was a 1980 NY Times article that I may have posted here talking about this; if I didn't post it, I'm sure I can find it if anybody wants to read it).
Today, the gold price isn't spiking...it's just rising STRONGLY...sizeable corrections seem to have ceased (closer to the 1970's price action than that from 2002-12)...and the price isn't giving domestic or international or even less-developed market buyers sticker shock. It's the Frog and the Boiling Pot except now it's gold and not a frog.
There is no analogy between ASE and generic US gold, as a collectible. An ASE is still a low budget purchase. You can't even buy lunch or dinner at many restaurants at this cost.
My explanation would be that generic MS-65 Saints aren't very competitive as a collectible, but I don't know how many collectors think that way.
MS-65 saints are really common as a type. If you're someone who is primarily or only interested in US gold, it may or won't matter. If you're the type of collector prioritizing liquidity and resale, it may not matter either. Or you may find a cheaper gold option, like NCLT, world gold, or the same US gold coin a few grades lower. There is no practical difference to most buyers of this coinage.
But if you're someone who collects both US gold and other coinage, there are a lot more interesting coins for similar or the same prices.
My opinion too, generically not just for this coinage.
As gold goes higher savvy players ratchet premiums up -
Real, experienced Players will be retailing them at healthy markup over cost. Their target market will be rich investors with money. No free ride…at melt lol. Quality PQ specimens will be marked up higher. Rich clients do pay the money. Premium over spot will increase in a hot market. What’s called pricing ahead will evolve (high markup keeper coins in anticipation of higher gold BV ahead). In a real bull market with quickly increasing prices, some players out for the jugular will start pricing ahead of sheet.
Adjusting for inflation, the price of gold right now is about the same as it was at its 1980 high. And for those with long memories, you’ll recall what happened after that high. Will it happen again? Who knows.
I have a handful of common date PCGS 55 Liberty half eagles from the 40’s and 50’s that I bought ten years ago. They’re worth less today.
Gold has more than doubled since then, so I presume you paid a nice premium to the gold spot price at the time and their supply eventually increased (hoards ?) which resulted in the premiums dissipating and even losing you money, right ?
No similarities of the underlying supply-demand fundamentals. Gold had been artificially held back in price for decades...it went up 20-fold in 9 years during the 1970's. Gold is only up a triple from the 2010 lows in 15 years.
Gold is much more affordable globally to hundreds of millions of potential buyers than 45-50 years ago.
Central Banks are buyers, not sellers. Ditto SWFs, hedge funds, and other institutional investors.
Gold is likely headed to $5,000 and I wouldn't rule out $7,500 by 2040.
My average purchase price was ~$875 in 2015 and 2016 and if I was to sell them today I would be lucky to get $850. The coins with gold doubling have no premium and between Fairmont and all the information on the internet people know that they are not rare. I can buy lower grade uncirculated Saints today for $100 above melt.
The $64k question at least for me is if gold stabilizes in price will the premium slowly start to increase? That’s probably worthy of a new thread.
Can you give a specific example of a coin you purchased in 2015-2016 that would realize the same price today?
I bought the following:
1848 $5 PCGS 55 @ $825 in 2016
1851 $5 NGC 55 @ $850 in 2015
1856 $5 PCGS 55 @ $850 in 2016
I would have a difficult time selling each coin for $850 today.
This trio has now been on Facebook for three days (they are not mine):
Not interested in buying gold at the present time.
TOO unpredictable, IMHO.
Wish I'd have bought some in the past.
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My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I was in a coin shop yesterday a watched a dealer buy 2 NGC 65 Saints and 2 66 NGC Saint's (cost?). When the seller left the dealer sold the best 66 (I got to give my opinion also) to my friend for $3700. The coin was as original and mark free as it could possibly come. I would have thought it was a 67. That's probably a $500+ premium. I was even tempted to buy one of the 65's that looked like a 66 to me.
I think he got a very good deal. Do you? I won't tell him what you say.
I hit the Detroit area shows nearly every week. I don't see any pre-1933 quarter or half eagles in EF/AU with an ask anywhere near melt. I find it hard to believe that dealers are sending these off to refiners. Maybe the worst ultra-polished jewelry coins or severely damaged/soldered coins. I'd personally love a bunch of the worst to end up melted but I still imagine that scenario is a rarity. JMHO
Mark
Nothing unpredictable at all about the current price of gold. I have been buying for years, the bulk of the buying is heavily in the $1100 - $1200 range with small bites along the way since. I am glad I'm not starting to purchase now but I still think there's more upside yet and pull backs will be shallow and short.
Mark
While I'm not doubting your experiences in your local area nor do I have any knowledge if "junk" gold is being melted or not; but you need only look to the BST to find half eagles at melt. And these are not really junk/damaged/soldered coins either; here are a few examples. Just for reference as I type this one on-line reference shows melt for $812.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I can see Gold making a rub towards $4,000.
I think it's not the gold that is rising in value, I think it's the decreasing value of our dollar.
And there are now less crackers in the box due to shrinkflation...at least an ounce of gold is still an ounce.
For an example, a $4.00 box of crackers now costs you $10.00. The crackers are not anymore valuable, it's our shrinking dollar
I sold 4 oz. of junk raw pre 1933 gold (one double eagle, two eagles, and the rest were half eagles) for 96% of spot last week. The coins were the worst of the worst but they were still gold. They were ex jewelry and were either polished or had badly damaged rims. Of course gold went up $100 the very next day.
Melt for all of your gold (past and present) just went up, again….
Put in a very lowball offer on a 1911-S saint in MS65 and forgot about it.
Got a congratulations e-mail last week and was confused.
Numismatic gold takes quite a hit when it's between spot & 2X spot during these times. (maybe even 2.5X spot)
This one was $1000 over spot so I'm pretty happy.
My Saint Set
Pretty coin
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I was surprised to see this on eBay as a "Buy it Now" for $1,465 + $5.65 ship = $1,470.65.
And just as gold prices exceeded $3,400 and put the melt value of it at $1,654.30 :
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Now the question is, will I actually receive the item as shown ? If not, I assume eBay will take care of the buyer (me).
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I can confirm that there are indeed dealers in my area that are sending pre-22 gold for melt. I'm sure it has happened along the way, but I don't remember it happening to this degree in 45 years.
I probably need to buy some at melt but I figure as soon as I do, gold will have a correction and I don't want to do that to everyone, lol!
If the price of gold gets high enough, whether that's now or at a higher price, I wouldn't consider it surprising if gold coins no one really wants as a collectible sell for less than melt.
Non-US gold does or did sell for melt for years. There isn't any reason this can't or should not apply to generic US classic gold either. (Very) common US classic gold (high quality or not) are "widgets", with potentially a lot more supply than collectors (as opposed to metal buyers) wanting it as a collectible.
There are nowhere near enough collectors to buy all the 1904 LH DE or 1924 Saints. There aren't enough collectors who can afford it or want it. It's potentially not much different for other still common coins with a much lower supply too.