$3000 Gold and its effect on numismatic gold coins - legs after that?
cheezhed
Posts: 5,919 ✭✭✭✭✭
$3000 now but odds are good it will surpass that. $4000 in a year? Dust off your crystal balls if you'd like to add some insight.
Many happy BST transactions
4
Comments
https://forums.collectors.com/categories/precious-metals
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
My magic 8 Ball says for next few months trades in a range from $2,870 to $3,150 and then breaks to $3,650 by end of year.
Isn't there a precious metals forum to talk about how rich all you gold hoarders are going to get this year? Oh yeah there is...https://forums.collectors.com/categories/precious-metals
Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds.-Albert Einstein
Wrong forum, sorry about that I never go to the PM forum.
What’s wrong with this forum? Lots of folks, myself included, have been buying $10 and $20 eagles and double eagles for years and view things a little differently than the PM forum.
Agree. PM prices influence premiums, demand, availability etc.
It would be interesting to hear from experienced dealers and collectors.
At these all time highs, hearing from dealers there are way more sellers than buyers. Volumes are high enough, that coin shop owners are sending common date $10s and $20s to the processors to be melted. It will be interesting to see how the pre 1933's market shakes out as this market continues.
Edit the title to reflect how $3,000 plus gold impacts numismatic gold and your thread is exactly where it should be.
I changed it. I was only thinking coins to begin with.
I know that I paid less than what melt currently would be for these today when I bought them raw a few years ago:
Today GLD (gold ETF) volume is high and SLV (silver ETF) also high so I am not sure if is distribution or accumulation at the top since there is little price movement. We need to see what price will move on Monday to get a better feel. If Monday price move up over 3k then we will see 3600 for the year. silver will be 40 or higher for the year.
It’s possible it could hit $4k. Ronnie has started marking them up (his gold coins) cost or bid plus 50 pct so not to worry.
Yes silver should hit 40 soon. Get ready to pay the money. Cash money too. Got pocket?
One can probably get a good idea about what will happen when gold hits $3,000.00 spot price by looking at what happened after spot price broke $2,000.00, or broke $1,000.00, or broke $500.00 or broke $200..00.
I wrote about this last year.....that I thought a price slightly above today's could see MS-65 common Saints close to or above $4,000 -- a price not seen since the Bubble Spike of 1989-90.
With the premiums very low, it appears my fears are unwarranted...at least for now. But if some froth develops in the future at slightly higher gold prices....or the premiums expand (admittedly, I don't think likely given the Fairmont deluge and other mini-hoards)...or if gold goes a bit higher....we'll be at 2x the price level of 2020 for a common Saint !!
The $3,000 gold move has been super-subdued. Nothing like $2,000 and certainly not $1,000...nor like back in 1979-80 as we kept passing century marks.
That's why I think this rally has legs. Russia has depleted her SWF and alot of her gold holdings....sales of which were EASILY absorbed by the market, as opposed to her sales of palladium/platinum which crushed the market. Gold has solid underlying fundamentals...the WMGs, no (ICE sales impacted bigtime by EVs).
I said $3,000 by 2030 -- I guess I can now focus on $5,000 by 2035.
Maybe even move up the timeline.....
I looked at some Liberty gold and Saints yesterday; none of them would warrant grading with the current spot prices; they'd have to grade MS64 or better....As gold moves higher numismatics draws less interest.
We haven't been around in awhile.
Since May of 2024 we've been laying low. WE have an E-Bay store but put the store on vacation for half of that time. Life is priority number 1. We've purchased, maybe 10 De's ? Sold a few higher priced coins. Better than 90% of our pre 33's are generics so they're not worth selling. We had a few for sale but as gold advanced I found that we spent too much time raising prices to keep up with gold. Common 62's/63's and 64's are hardly worth offering considering fees. Even CAC 64's in generics aren't affected much by the bean. 65's /after fees ? not interested. Am I motivated to sell $3000 coins for a net $50 over spot? Leave them for the kids.
We no longer have an interest to buy generics. We have enough and tying up more capital for little return makes no sense. Re.. We are looking for somewhat better coins in the $4500- $7500 range but coins that we believe are a "deal". We don't need to buy or sell coins. WE sold a grand total of 8 coins in the past 8 months and 3 were shipwreck gold DE's.
That would be great if it meant low premiums on circulated classic gold coins 🤔
Mr_Spud
That is where we are right now, unless a branch mint circ gold is selling for spot most of the time. Problem is who wants to pay the premium that current spot represents for circ common gold. Unless you think its going to move up to 4K, then circ gold is a bargain, relatively speaking.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I just want them for my circulated type sets. If demand goes down because of the high spot price, just maybe I’ll have less competition.
Mr_Spud
Gold often surges in times of stock market uncertainty (like now) because of its perception as a safe haven. Many auction bidders feel less free to raise their paddle if they are concerned about direction of their stock holdings.
When I have been a consignor, I have always hoped the stock market was trending up when my coins went on the block. I have been far less concerned about the price trends of gold or silver.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
It would take 5% annual growth to see $5,000 in 2035. That shouldn't be difficult.
Lost a fortune unloading my high quality numismatic gold. Will never buy gold again.
A dealer north of here sold me a couple one oz. gold coins he no doubt bought when it was a lot cheaper, he said it was from his "private" stash. He said he'd be putting the money into 5% CDs.
Don't we have that NOW ? Even on uncirculated and mint state coins ?
It's a coin flip as to whether gold is going UP or getting hammered DOWN. Depends on multiple variables, the most important one being if a former prop for support or resistance has reversed. Think inflation....recession.....central bank buying/sales....etc.
A simple question from someone who does not own any gold coins. I heard a dealer say there was no premium on gold $20's because the price of gold was so high. Does that mean that at one time a $20 melted at X and to buy it cost X plus a big % for numismatic value and now at melt Y the price is near Y because the numismatic value is not important?
Yes.
I'd expect the current price if it sticks to both reduce premiums on generic gold and most NCLT, US and non-US coinage both.
I also expect it to price out more of the collector base.
Yes to a point, when gold spot was 2K an MS65 was selling for $500-$700 (or more) over spot. Today those same MS65's are selling for maybe $100 over spot sometimes even a bit less. Pretty much anything under MS65 (keeping in mind we are talking generic dates) is just a few dollars over spot. The rapid rise in gold spot prices has evaporated the numismatic premiums for generic gold, rare and many branch mint gold coins still see a premium currently. But if spot continues up at this pace numismatic premiums will continue to evaporate. I don't follow the MS66 level much but have seen a few being offered in the $4,500 +/- range recently, if gold spot goes to 5K the numismatic premium for even MS66 level coins would be absorbed into the spot price.
Now if the spot price were to slow down or stagnate at the 3K level for awhile we might see some premium for MS65 coins reemerge, although I doubt we'd see the same level of premiums as when gold was 2K. At least that is my view from a limited participation in the gold market.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
I started dabbling in gold in 2019 when it was ~$1250/oz. I bought a couple of generic pieces.. an 1881 $5 PCGS AU58 ($380), and a raw 1925D $2.5 Indian ~$375 and it came back PCGS AU58 as well. I had the opportunity to buy a generic $20 Saint MS63 for just $50 over Spot at the time... $1300. MS65s were still commanding a bit of a premium. Fast forward to Spring 2024 and Gold was $2150/oz, I opted for a generic Saint ,1924 ,in MS65. I spent $2400... I figured I'd rather have the higher grade if I only had to spend $100 more... and MS65 coins usually have better eye appeal especially for such a large coin.
I guess I'm glad I bought the larger denomination gold when I did. The last piece I want is $3 Princess gold. There's typically a numismatic premium on these relative to the amount of gold in the coin... I've been watching a few $3 in AU for the past few months and there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of movement in prices and the pieces I've been looking at have still been sitting... just an observation.
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
Be careful. I don't by gold coins (perhaps one day because dummies usually buy on the way up), but I look at the $1 and $3 when I'm at a table hunting for Lincolns. IMO, a large number of MS $3 I see are AU and a large number of AU's are XF. If you are picky, you'll probably be able to locate a true AU among those considered to be market acceptable AU's.
A grammatical nuance: "Affect" is generally a verb meaning "to influence or impact," while "effect" is usually a noun meaning "the result or consequence". Perhaps either "affect" or "effect" works, but I'd use the latter.
That sounds good. Except you can't get 5% CDs.
Shaping up to be a bull market area -
With gold spot increasing - Numismatic slabbed Classic gold coins which are PQ (super luster, high end for the grade, problem free) can bring a really good profit margin for sellers above bid. Especially with gold hungry rich investors. However replacing that inventory buying it right is a dog fight.
Well... in the "numismatic" area of gold, there are also the California Fractionals... not much gold to speak of but typically trades at a premium due to numismatic value and collector interest. I've not looked at these recently... anyone keeping tabs on pricing trends??
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
Premiums are highest when the price of bullion falls. Dealers are reluctant to cut prices and like wages, prices are sticky to the downside.
It's not a perfect 1-for-1 relationship, but you can see the historical trend here:
Gold is closing 3k today but the volume is just little above average. It might go back down or up for couple times. Gold needs to stay above 3K for 3 days continually to validate the break out.
I’d like know where he found 5% CDs.
The Au chart looks like K2 right now well into a good 18 month bull so far. I think it’s about to go into irrational exuberance mode spiking up another $500 and then correcting $1000 over the next year or so. Way too many already talking about 4K and 5K, and none talking about a forthcoming correction. Happens every time. Personally I think we’re going to go through a minor recession this year and gold will come along for a downward ride a bit. It’s not like everyone’s income is going up 30% every year right now. Housing is way overinflated, stock market is way overinflated and so too is my friend gold. What comes up will come down.
Yep gold and silver both look to have a great future. Silver even more
Free shipping, 10% Off First Order - Jay's Coins / https://traditionalcoins.com
Whatnot!
I think that $3,000 gold will ruin the market for common date gold coins. It will squeeze a lot of smaller collectors out. My comment to collectors who think that this is cool, be careful what you wish for. The higher the gold content, the worse it will be for the numismatic market for those items.
When it comes to investing and sports betting I’m a contrarian. If the crowd says gold is going to hit $4000 look for a decline in price. If the crowd says the market is going to continue correcting it’s probably going up after this hiccup. When everyone talks about how great Team A is I like Team B (ie. the SuperBowl).
They're out there. Bond funds are better.
Except when the trend is a multi-year up move. Gold has been rising for years....the crowd is often right.
I see very little talk about gold compared to previous milestones.
I understand why the premium is very high when the price of gold falls or collapses...but I'm still wondering why a healthy premium doesn't persist for common date coins like MS-65 Saints. They had about a 15-20% premium when gold was about $2,000 (MS-65 ~ $2,400)....but for whatever reason that premium is now down to under 10% so with gold at $3,000 the MS-65 will cost you maybe $3,200, give-or-take.
If dealers could jack up silver ASEs during Covid, why can't a normal spread be maintained on pre-1933 gold ?
I am waiting for silver to go higher so I can unload the rest of my modern commemoratives.
The battle scars of all the good times
I understand Beeman, I was waiting for Gold to get up to $2000 so I could unload all my low mintage, non-vintage spousals!
I did keep a couple just for an abusive reminder.
Glad I completed my gold Dansco type page before this latest run up.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
For those holding our collections for the log run, it doesn’t really matter. Even $10,000 gold doesn’t excite me….just like $1000 gold wouldn’t frighten me either. If you’re a seller…then that’s a different ball of wax. Gotta be a lot of happy stackers out there.
MY GOLD TYPE SET https://pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/complete-type-sets/gold-type-set-12-piece-circulation-strikes-1839-1933/publishedset/321940