The higher gold spot goes, the likely lower numismatic premiums will be for gold coins. I would say that is for more common dates and all. True rarities never track to spot but high spot prices probably will shine a spotlight on them. But I work with gold more on the sidelines. Those who specialize in it, especially over decades, will be real authorities.
Friends I know on the bourse are saying they wb using more aggressive markup factors on them as gold advances. Like a higher spread between bid and retail. Jimmy (who has been in bull mkts b4) has taken about half of his off the market in anticipation of higher BV / retail markup spreads. Got Pocket?
So it’s putting pressure on me thinking I should buy some more now…
@coinbuf said:
Yes to a point, when gold spot was 2K an MS65 was selling for $500-$700 (or more) over spot. Today those same >MS65's are selling for maybe $100 over spot sometimes even a bit less. Pretty much anything under MS65 (keeping >in mind we are talking generic dates) is just a few dollars over spot.
I get why the premium would fall in %-terms and also in absolute dollars....but why SO MUCH ? Any thoughts, CB ?
The rapid rise in gold spot prices has evaporated the numismatic premiums for generic gold, rare and many branch >mint gold coins still see a premium currently. But if spot continues up at this pace numismatic premiums will >continue to evaporate. I don't follow the MS66 level much but have seen a few being offered in the $4,500 +/- >range recently, if gold spot goes to 5K the numismatic premium for even MS66 level coins would be absorbed into >the spot price.
What I am having trouble understanding is why the same dollar amount can't sustain at higher gold prices (meaning the premium falls in %-terms). During Covid, surcharges stuck on ASEs for years. Yet with gold, the rising gold price is KO'ing the premiums.
Now if the spot price were to slow down or stagnate at the 3K level for awhile we might see some premium for >MS65 coins reemerge, although I doubt we'd see the same level of premiums as when gold was 2K. At least that is >my view from a limited participation in the gold market.
@jt88 said:
Gold is closing 3k today but the volume is just little above average. It might go back down or up for couple times. >Gold needs to stay above 3K for 3 days continually to validate the break out.
This could be the strongest gold move since the 1970's, even beating the 2001-11 run.
I see no interest on the financial/business shows. I even contacted a media guy I know and offered to show up with some coins....Zzzzzzzzz.
At the Texas Coin Show in Grapevine this past weekend, a dealer had PCGS MS64 $20 Saints for spot - $2,888 with gold a bit under $3,000. In the past 35 years I have been a dealer, the only pre-1933 US gold you could buy for spot was the damaged, polished, ex-jewelry coins.
Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
@safari_dude said:
Remember when the experts said no one would buy gas at $1a gallon? Then $2 a gallon? Then $3 a gallon? Hmmmmm….My how times have changed!🤔😉
People have had no choice, but inflation and monetary incomes, but not totally real incomes, have supported that price change.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
At current record gold spot these have zero numismatic value, I wonder how far under gold spot the dealer bought these MS64 $20 Saints to sell them at $110~ish below spot ?
@Frankcoins said:
At the Texas Coin Show in Grapevine this past weekend, a dealer had PCGS MS64 $20 Saints for spot - $2,888 with gold a bit under $3,000. In the past 35 years I have been a dealer, the only pre-1933 US gold you could buy for spot was the damaged, polished, ex-jewelry coins.
@Frankcoins said:
At the Texas Coin Show in Grapevine this past weekend, a dealer had PCGS MS64 $20 Saints for spot - $2,888 with >gold a bit under $3,000. In the past 35 years I have been a dealer, the only pre-1933 US gold you could buy for spot >was the damaged, polished, ex-jewelry coins.
Price of the coin vs. price of gold...right ? No adjustment for the 3.25% less than 1 ounce that a Double Eagle contains ?
@coinbuf said:
Yes to a point, when gold spot was 2K an MS65 was selling for $500-$700 (or more) over spot. Today those same >MS65's are selling for maybe $100 over spot sometimes even a bit less. Pretty much anything under MS65 (keeping >in mind we are talking generic dates) is just a few dollars over spot.
I get why the premium would fall in %-terms and also in absolute dollars....but why SO MUCH ? Any thoughts, CB ?
I am far from an expert on gold, but my very uneducated guess is that its due to the rapid rise in the spot price which the numismatic market has had trouble keeping up with. That is why I think a pause in the spot price for 6-8 months could provide some relief and confidence that there is not a huge correction looming. Which might allow some of the premium on MS65, and perhaps a small premium on MS64, generics to reemerge. I have been hearing that there are lots of sellers but fewer buyers, I suspect that is just a function of greed (some trying to not miss the top) and fear of a significant correction. Like the bubble on commemorative coins that happened in the late 80's folks are concerned about being left without a chair if the music stops.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
@coinbuf said:
Like the bubble on commemorative coins that happened in the late 80's folks are concerned about being left >without a chair if the music stops.
In the past, when the premium evaporated, the price of bullion fell sharply.
@Custerlost said:
Makes population estimates worthless.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material >out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, >especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
(1) So you think that lots of sub-AU coins are being melted ? Is there any real evidence for this ? I've seen posters in forums speculating they think this happens and I do have a 1979 or 1980 piece which implied the same thing would have happened to lots of silver coins had the price of silver not fallen back bigtime after the Hunt's Silver Fiasco.
(2) If lower-quality coins are more rare, they still may be available in such quantities that they are still not going to get much if any numismatic premium. Look at the Fairmont Collection -- over 400,000 coins in total, 2% certified and graded, 98% graded as non-Fairmont or not even submitted.
@Mr Lindy said:
At current record gold spot these have zero numismatic value, I wonder how far under gold spot the dealer bought these MS64 $20 Saints to sell them at $110~ish below spot ?
They are not $110 below spot. They were AT spot $2985 x 0.9675
Frank Provasek - PCGS Authorized Dealer, Life Member ANA, Member TNA. www.frankcoins.com
Forgot to mention my Olympic gold coins. They also were smelted. There is absolutely very little post1986 US numismatic gold that will survive 3-5K gold value unless someone is in a coma, totally brain dead, doing a rip van winkle, or just simply forgot what they had. The exception might be stackers who believe they will live long enough to see even higher gold.
Comments
I have alot too. But I like them...many unique types....a bunch of Saint-Gaudens retros, too.
The higher gold spot goes, the likely lower numismatic premiums will be for gold coins. I would say that is for more common dates and all. True rarities never track to spot but high spot prices probably will shine a spotlight on them. But I work with gold more on the sidelines. Those who specialize in it, especially over decades, will be real authorities.
Friends I know on the bourse are saying they wb using more aggressive markup factors on them as gold advances. Like a higher spread between bid and retail. Jimmy (who has been in bull mkts b4) has taken about half of his off the market in anticipation of higher BV / retail markup spreads. Got Pocket?
So it’s putting pressure on me thinking I should buy some more now…
I get why the premium would fall in %-terms and also in absolute dollars....but why SO MUCH ? Any thoughts, CB ?
What I am having trouble understanding is why the same dollar amount can't sustain at higher gold prices (meaning the premium falls in %-terms). During Covid, surcharges stuck on ASEs for years. Yet with gold, the rising gold price is KO'ing the premiums.
Interesting thoughts, thanks CB !!
This could be the strongest gold move since the 1970's, even beating the 2001-11 run.
I see no interest on the financial/business shows. I even contacted a media guy I know and offered to show up with some coins....Zzzzzzzzz.
At the Texas Coin Show in Grapevine this past weekend, a dealer had PCGS MS64 $20 Saints for spot - $2,888 with gold a bit under $3,000. In the past 35 years I have been a dealer, the only pre-1933 US gold you could buy for spot was the damaged, polished, ex-jewelry coins.
Remember when the experts said no one would buy gas at $1a gallon? Then $2 a gallon? Then $3 a gallon? Hmmmmm….My how times have changed!🤔😉
People have had no choice, but inflation and monetary incomes, but not totally real incomes, have supported that price change.
At current record gold spot these have zero numismatic value, I wonder how far under gold spot the dealer bought these MS64 $20 Saints to sell them at $110~ish below spot ?
Price of the coin vs. price of gold...right ? No adjustment for the 3.25% less than 1 ounce that a Double Eagle contains ?
“Out there” is a bit vague.
I am far from an expert on gold, but my very uneducated guess is that its due to the rapid rise in the spot price which the numismatic market has had trouble keeping up with. That is why I think a pause in the spot price for 6-8 months could provide some relief and confidence that there is not a huge correction looming. Which might allow some of the premium on MS65, and perhaps a small premium on MS64, generics to reemerge. I have been hearing that there are lots of sellers but fewer buyers, I suspect that is just a function of greed (some trying to not miss the top) and fear of a significant correction. Like the bubble on commemorative coins that happened in the late 80's folks are concerned about being left without a chair if the music stops.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
Makes population estimates worthless.
Each bump in precious metals, or rather, each decrease in the value of the dollar, evaporates more of the material out there available to collectors and hoarders. Have always questioned the estimates and population reports, especially the higher grade items that likely have been resubmitted for grading many times in the last 40 years.
Hence, lower quality coins are much more rare today than one might think, and will continue to become more so.
In the past, when the premium evaporated, the price of bullion fell sharply.
(1) So you think that lots of sub-AU coins are being melted ? Is there any real evidence for this ? I've seen posters in forums speculating they think this happens and I do have a 1979 or 1980 piece which implied the same thing would have happened to lots of silver coins had the price of silver not fallen back bigtime after the Hunt's Silver Fiasco.
(2) If lower-quality coins are more rare, they still may be available in such quantities that they are still not going to get much if any numismatic premium. Look at the Fairmont Collection -- over 400,000 coins in total, 2% certified and graded, 98% graded as non-Fairmont or not even submitted.
They are not $110 below spot. They were AT spot $2985 x 0.9675
Yes, all of my first spouse and eagles were smelted. I am sure others are doing the same.
Forgot to mention my Olympic gold coins. They also were smelted. There is absolutely very little post1986 US numismatic gold that will survive 3-5K gold value unless someone is in a coma, totally brain dead, doing a rip van winkle, or just simply forgot what they had. The exception might be stackers who believe they will live long enough to see even higher gold.