U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
The number of classic US coins probably declined a little during that time period, so if a stable number of collectors are chasing a relatively stable (or declining) number of collectibles, then the hobby is holding steady.
What exactly do you find to be interesting? Looks fairly stable to me.
As @Goldminers said - the stability is the point. The question in the OP is, "is this a declining hobby?" and this particular data (which I acknowledge is just one of many) answers, "no."
@ShaunBC5 said:
The number of classic US coins probably declined a little during that time period, so if a stable number of collectors are chasing a relatively stable (or declining) number of collectibles, then the hobby is holding steady.
Agree with this - the hobby may involve a lower per capita slice of the population, but as long as the demand for the available supply of collectible coins remains pretty constant, it argues that the hobby isn't "in decline." (You may infer what you want about my opinion of moderns.)
Without data everything is anecdotal, but even data like ANA attendance isn't necessarily useful. There are so many variables that could result in year to year differences in attendance that you can't really draw any conclusions from it. Now if you were somehow able to get attendance data for every show in the country, big and small, and compare that year to year, that would be a lot more useful. But even then, that wouldnt account for shifts from in-person to online.
A more accurate metric would probably be sales volume, both in units and $ amounts, but that would be impossible to accurately gather. The best you could probably do is look at sales figures from Stacks/Heritage/GC, but that also doesn't account for broader market changes (i.e. are number of coins sold through those going up because collectorship is increasing, or because a higher % of coin sales are going through them?)
Actually now that I'm thinking, I think something like ANA membership would be the most accurate easily-available datapoint to draw assumptions on. I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of "serious" coin collectors are ANA members (someone asked how to even define who is a collector, and I think ANA membership would be a decent indicator), and that is something that you could compare year to year.
I have said this before and will say it again. Right now we are living in the golden age of coin collecting. Why? Information. I spent the first 30 years of my collecting experience with a mere hand full of reference books and most of those were generalized. At one time I begged David Lawrence to reprint the Wiley/Bugert book on Seated Halves. The closest I got in a three year period was a copy on E-Bay, torn into 3 pieces with an asking price over $500 dollars. today I not only have a free copy of that book on my computer I have 5 other deeper dive books on the same subject at my fingertip. What would you like to know about, Seated dimes, Bust halves, Morgan dollars? Those are just a few of the detailed books anyone has access to now.
Every Sunday my wife watches a show called Collectors Call. They have never done coins, usually it is toys and Hollywood material, but every show has the same mantra. "What did you pay for this?" "I think ten dollars". "What is it worth now?" A person declared expert will pronounce, "This is now a $10,00 dollar toy." Why? Because of information. The other constant theme is that the internet is now full of sites on this or that very topic. Every one is an expert.
I have no fears for coin collecting. I do wonder how coin dealers manage to make a living. At one time they and perhaps a hand full of others my recognize a certain variety up for sale. Today thousands have that information in their hand. you don't think they are going to use it? I know I DO!!! James
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Actually, that's incorrectly stated. The number of collectors do NOT need to increase with population to keep the "same number of collectors". It would only need to grow to keep the same "percentage" of collectors.
You do not need more (number) collectors to sustain the market.
@abbyme24 said:
Actually now that I'm thinking, I think something like ANA membership would be the most accurate easily-available datapoint to draw assumptions on. I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of "serious" coin collectors are ANA members (someone asked how to even define who is a collector, and I think ANA membership would be a decent indicator), and that is something that you could compare year to year.
After @abbyme24 said this, I asked ANA if they could provide the numbers. I heard back from Donna Frater, ANA's Director of Development & Membership at the ANA. Donna credits her teammates with helping compile the data Here's her response:
"I'm not sure that ANA membership numbers would be an accurate representation for how coin collecting is doing as a whole. Not everyone who is a coin collector joins the ANA and there are those who may want to join but can't (whether for monetary reasons, time investment, etc.). Coin collecting is hard to measure, especially since there are varying degrees of interest and involvement. Someone who collects every now and then for fun may not consider themselves a serious collector, so it's a bit difficult to quantify how coin collecting is or isn't on the decline.
It seems the question of whether numismatics is in decline has been around for quite a while.
As for ANA membership, we have hovered around the same number for the past ten years. See our annual averages.
*The ANA gave a grace period to members who were due to renew and also engaged in a free membership program during National Coin Week as community support during the pandemic."
@ShaunBC5 said:
The number of classic US coins probably declined a little during that time period, so if a stable number of collectors are chasing a relatively stable (or declining) number of collectibles, then the hobby is holding steady.
There are many US collectors who only collect world coins and do not touch US coins. Additionally, there are many non-US collectors who now bid in US coin auctions via the internet, both for US coins and world coins.
So while US collectors of US coins may be stable or decreasing, these other categories of collectors help account for the overall increase.
Look, if you like something, can afford it, it's not illegal and you're not getting into someone else's space / face, and you like it, do it. I racewalk. I'm probably the only one in my zipcode who does this, the sport is becoming extinct in the U.S., and I don't care. I do it because I like doing it. If you feel the same way about collecting coins, have at it.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
I share the sentiment of the posts describing the amazing access to information nowadays and how the rest of the world is collecting more. I remember back in the day before online auction and sales information - evaluating coins was tough. Now we have a much better idea of what's really rare and what isn't. It's opened up all kinds of formerly mysterious series to collecting. There's much more knowledge and communication available at our fingertips, and that's great for collectors.
If coin collecting dies, I'd pretend to be Mickley - how he talked about the decades in the 1830s-50s without substantial competition from other collectors - and I'd amass an amazing collection, and then I'd monastically devote my life to overprotecting it with numismatically-themed booby traps. Anyway, that's my personal plan.
@Swampboy said:
I brough 3 into the hobby this year.
All of them have attended shows and bought coins online (which is code for they're 'paying their tuition')
Then there's my 7 year old nephew who knows I'm a collector and had his Mom drive him over so he could give me these coins he minted on a train track.
None of this answers the question in the OP
Just random observations
It’s a matter of opinion - I track the PCGS 3000 stat - it has been far outpaced by gold and silver the last year. I am not saying collecting is declining but many going to other areas vs US Classic Coins. I would like to see a similar stat for Currency. Possibly take the BN book then a MV stat for every country and track (AI). But what about graded notes which are a major part of currency investment. Many in my coin club have gone to currency bc coins they been there done that. It doesn’t mean they are not spending at shows.
That’s some neat attendance stats on Chicago, LA, and Philly. I want make spreadsheet /graph on them by city. But all three have huge populations with big money. Plus what is total show spending those venues. Attendance can be stable but total spending a different more pertinent analytical data stream.
@dlmtorts said:
The rising price of metals will keep some flocking to gold and silver coins. It creates a problem for some.
It's been my inference for a long time that this is the primary driver behind generic classic US gold, Morgan dollars and Peace dollars. The coins are either too expensive (gold and maybe some Morgans) or too common for it to be mostly bought by hobbyist collectors.
I also agree that sharply higher metal prices are a problem for recreational collecting. Most collectors don't and never did collect gold, but much higher silver spot will squeeze budgets even more by (noticeably) reducing affordable options.
@dlmtorts said:
I was always told to buy the best grade you can afford.
I expect this to not be a good practice longer term. Depends upon the coin and the price variance but the price differences are frequently disproportionate to what the coin actually is as a collectible. The (mostly US) price level and price structure for most if not all coins of "meaningful" value are also contingent on the greatest asset, credit, and debt mania in the history of human civilization. That's where most of the "wealth" originates to pay for much of it. (Yes, I know most aren't aware of it and of those who admit it, most seem to think it will last "forever".)
@dlmtorts said:
Most modern silver coins are easily found uncirculated. I, for one, refuse to part with some of them because they really have little numismatic value over melt. Seems to me uncirculated 70 tear old coins should have more value, but there are so many of them.
These are actually bullions coins which due to large-scale hoarding, must exist by the millions for practically all dates in grades up to MS-66. I pulled about 100 "choice" to "gem" quarters from a $500 bag a few months ago. Most are 1964, but I found a few from the 40's and more than a few from the 50's. Some were "blast white" but others are nicely toned. There are nowhere near enough actual collectors for the supply at more than low premiums to "melt".
The next crash wb similar to 89 but more of a correction - world material goes up US goes down as both like molten rock commingle at a common level.
Depends upon the reason for the price decline and the scope. If there is a general "everything" crash, the prices of actually scarce and rare (as opposed to the current US definition) world coinage will almost entirely be contingent upon the personal preferences and financial circumstances of a (very) low number, maybe as few as a handful. Most world coins lack equivalent liquidity and depending upon what it is, might also lack equivalent actual collector (as opposed to "investor") interest.
I observed this experience is real time when South Africa used to be my primary collecting interest. Starting buying the Union (and some ZAR) series in larger number in 2002 and could see a bubble by the end of the decade. I sold practically all of my better coins in 2009 and 2010. The market (if it can even be called that it's so small) peaked roughly around YE 2011.
It's crashed and burned since, never recovering. My explanation for it is that the price run-up was similar to the US leading up to the 1989/1990 crash, just at a much smaller scale. Both were the result of excessive financially motivated buying and lack of interest in recreational collecting. Both were the result of a change in buyer preference for TPG.
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Over time, the participation rate (the metric you are referencing) will almost certainly decline. This should be evident from US Census Bureau (and other) forecasts which are certainly "directionally" accurate. This is independent of any other "macro" changes: future economic and financial conditions, gold and silver prices, US Mint decisions, etc.
The ethnic groups projected to account for the vast majority of the increase don't have an equivalent collecting tradition to the primary historical collecting demographic, or one at all. A prior post mentions or at least infers a human tendency toward collecting but that's not universal. There is a limited collecting culture in Latin America and most Asian countries (none or virtually none in many or most) and it's not even noticeable in Africa outside of South Africa.
There isn't any magical pixie dust on US soil which is going to transform an equivalent proportion of these people into future collectors. And contrary to what seems to be a widespread belief, it has nothing to do with affluence or lack of it either. There isn't a single country where there aren't thousands to millions who can afford to collect at the same financial level as those reading my post now. It's not a lack of affluence, it's a lack of interest.
How this demographic change will impact the US coin market will vary, but it's almost a virtual certainty that these people will collect US coinage in (much) lower proportion if at all and when they do, much less likely to be candidates to be the buyers of the coins usually discussed on the US Coin Forum. Most of them won't an equivalent cultural affinity for it.
It will require a larger participation rate by the primary historical demographic group (Caucasian male) to keep the collector base stable or increase it.
I can only speak for the area around my location and who I know. A relative and a neighbor collected somewhat. Both have passed away recently. The neighbor had his collection left to family. The relative did the same. Whether those that received the coins will continue to collect is unknown. My feeling is the coins will be liquidated.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Over time, the participation rate (the metric you are referencing) will almost certainly decline. This should be evident from US Census Bureau (and other) forecasts which are certainly "directionally" accurate. This is independent of any other "macro" changes: future economic and financial conditions, gold and silver prices, US Mint decisions, etc.
The ethnic groups projected to account for the vast majority of the increase don't have an equivalent collecting tradition to the primary historical collecting demographic, or one at all. A prior post mentions or at least infers a human tendency toward collecting but that's not universal. There is a limited collecting culture in Latin America and most Asian countries (none or virtually none in many or most) and it's not even noticeable in Africa outside of South Africa.
There isn't any magical pixie dust on US soil which is going to transform an equivalent proportion of these people into future collectors. And contrary to what seems to be a widespread belief, it has nothing to do with affluence or lack of it either. There isn't a single country where there aren't thousands to millions who can afford to collect at the same financial level as those reading my post now. It's not a lack of affluence, it's a lack of interest.
How this demographic change will impact the US coin market will vary, but it's almost a virtual certainty that these people will collect US coinage in (much) lower proportion if at all and when they do, much less likely to be candidates to be the buyers of the coins usually discussed on the US Coin Forum. Most of them won't an equivalent cultural affinity for it.
It will require a larger participation rate by the primary historical demographic group (Caucasian male) to keep the collector base stable or increase it.
good grief man, this is so inaccurate I don't have the time
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Over time, the participation rate (the metric you are referencing) will almost certainly decline. This should be evident from US Census Bureau (and other) forecasts which are certainly "directionally" accurate. This is independent of any other "macro" changes: future economic and financial conditions, gold and silver prices, US Mint decisions, etc.
The ethnic groups projected to account for the vast majority of the increase don't have an equivalent collecting tradition to the primary historical collecting demographic, or one at all. A prior post mentions or at least infers a human tendency toward collecting but that's not universal. There is a limited collecting culture in Latin America and most Asian countries (none or virtually none in many or most) and it's not even noticeable in Africa outside of South Africa.
There isn't any magical pixie dust on US soil which is going to transform an equivalent proportion of these people into future collectors. And contrary to what seems to be a widespread belief, it has nothing to do with affluence or lack of it either. There isn't a single country where there aren't thousands to millions who can afford to collect at the same financial level as those reading my post now. It's not a lack of affluence, it's a lack of interest.
How this demographic change will impact the US coin market will vary, but it's almost a virtual certainty that these people will collect US coinage in (much) lower proportion if at all and when they do, much less likely to be candidates to be the buyers of the coins usually discussed on the US Coin Forum. Most of them won't an equivalent cultural affinity for it.
It will require a larger participation rate by the primary historical demographic group (Caucasian male) to keep the collector base stable or increase it.
good grief man, this is so inaccurate I don't have the time
Yeah. I don't know how "accurate" it is, but it is certainly highly speculative without any supporting data. And certainly to say there is no collecting base in Asia is, at best, an exaggeration. The explosion in prices of Chinese material was not driven by "Caucasion male" participation. It was quite clearly driven by growing affluence in China. There is also a solid Japanese collecting community. The lack of such a community in, for example, Laos would certainly not be anything but the wealth effect.
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
I can only speak for the area around my location and who I know. A relative and a neighbor collected somewhat. Both have passed away recently. The neighbor had his collection left to family. The relative did the same. Whether those that received the coins will continue to collect is unknown. My feeling is the coins will be liquidated.
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Over time, the participation rate (the metric you are referencing) will almost certainly decline. This should be evident from US Census Bureau (and other) forecasts which are certainly "directionally" accurate. This is independent of any other "macro" changes: future economic and financial conditions, gold and silver prices, US Mint decisions, etc.
The ethnic groups projected to account for the vast majority of the increase don't have an equivalent collecting tradition to the primary historical collecting demographic, or one at all. A prior post mentions or at least infers a human tendency toward collecting but that's not universal. There is a limited collecting culture in Latin America and most Asian countries (none or virtually none in many or most) and it's not even noticeable in Africa outside of South Africa.
There isn't any magical pixie dust on US soil which is going to transform an equivalent proportion of these people into future collectors. And contrary to what seems to be a widespread belief, it has nothing to do with affluence or lack of it either. There isn't a single country where there aren't thousands to millions who can afford to collect at the same financial level as those reading my post now. It's not a lack of affluence, it's a lack of interest.
How this demographic change will impact the US coin market will vary, but it's almost a virtual certainty that these people will collect US coinage in (much) lower proportion if at all and when they do, much less likely to be candidates to be the buyers of the coins usually discussed on the US Coin Forum. Most of them won't an equivalent cultural affinity for it.
It will require a larger participation rate by the primary historical demographic group (Caucasian male) to keep the collector base stable or increase it.
I also think that more people will be open to casually collecting than you might think despite my steadfast belief that bullion is the future. The way to do it is likely through reusing historical designs but this time on circulating coinage. I am sure enough people would be inclined to casually put away a coin that had a Seated Liberty or Barber image versus any of the modern quarters coming out today. State Quarters succeeded because of state pride, America the Beautiful and American Women quarters merely honor people and places and does not tell the story of the money that used to be used. Regardless the single thing the US Mint can also do is push for marketing where it is culturally accepted for people to give gold coins during weddings and important happy life events instead of bridal and baby registries like what is done in Turkey. That would cause gold coin mintages to skyrocket when it is most needed. Turkish gold coin production already outpaces the US Mint and it is a country of 85 million, imagine the market a country of 340 million will have. The De Beers company were successful with diamonds like this.
If a coin has little or no collector base, then it has no long term investment potential. Unlike stocks and bonds, coins to not pay dividends or interest. Therefore they only increase in value if those who admire them are willing to pay more. If they aren't, the "investors" are using the "bigger fool" model to make money. When that merry-go-round stops, the game is over.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@JimTyler said:
Coin collecting is an old farts hobby (mostly) and with the internet our recliners are the new coin show. Might make more collectors since it’s easier
Really? Then who are all of these YN’s I keep meeting at shows?
Well, no offense, but I keep meeting 95+% oldsters. Have you ever looked at Charmy's reports and who is there or Acousha's YouTube exploits/sales, etc. as examples????? Older than old.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Wanna add a bit of "non-data" input to the conversation. I've coin roll hunted with my three grandsons over the past few years, and given them some Whitman folders that we've partially filled together. Yesterday my 13 YO grandson sent me this image of a set he was gifted. He's thrilled. When I see it in person, I, too, will be thrilled on his behalf.
@BLUEJAYWAY said:
I can only speak for the area around my location and who I know. A relative and a neighbor collected somewhat. Both have passed away recently. The neighbor had his collection left to family. The relative did the same. Whether those that received the coins will continue to collect is unknown. My feeling is the coins will be liquidated.
To a local coin shop or at the bank sadly.
You are probably correct. And that is a shame. My neighbor had a nice assortment of silver and rolls of Franklin's in BU. I reached out to his heirs, but no followup response. Must of had other plans.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Over time, the participation rate (the metric you are referencing) will almost certainly decline. This should be evident from US Census Bureau (and other) forecasts which are certainly "directionally" accurate. This is independent of any other "macro" changes: future economic and financial conditions, gold and silver prices, US Mint decisions, etc.
The ethnic groups projected to account for the vast majority of the increase don't have an equivalent collecting tradition to the primary historical collecting demographic, or one at all. A prior post mentions or at least infers a human tendency toward collecting but that's not universal. There is a limited collecting culture in Latin America and most Asian countries (none or virtually none in many or most) and it's not even noticeable in Africa outside of South Africa.
There isn't any magical pixie dust on US soil which is going to transform an equivalent proportion of these people into future collectors. And contrary to what seems to be a widespread belief, it has nothing to do with affluence or lack of it either. There isn't a single country where there aren't thousands to millions who can afford to collect at the same financial level as those reading my post now. It's not a lack of affluence, it's a lack of interest.
How this demographic change will impact the US coin market will vary, but it's almost a virtual certainty that these people will collect US coinage in (much) lower proportion if at all and when they do, much less likely to be candidates to be the buyers of the coins usually discussed on the US Coin Forum. Most of them won't an equivalent cultural affinity for it.
It will require a larger participation rate by the primary historical demographic group (Caucasian male) to keep the collector base stable or increase it.
good grief man, this is so inaccurate I don't have the time
Yeah. I don't know how "accurate" it is, but it is certainly highly speculative without any supporting data. And certainly to say there is no collecting base in Asia is, at best, an exaggeration. The explosion in prices of Chinese material was not driven by "Caucasion male" participation. It was quite clearly driven by growing affluence in China. There is also a solid Japanese collecting community. The lack of such a community in, for example, Laos would certainly not be anything but the wealth effect.
I know there is collecting in Asia, with as examples only, an active market in China and Japan. I'm not that ignorant. I'm not referring to most of Europe or the Anglo countries either. Thanks, but I know there is collecting there too. I was referring to most (not all) of the developing world where immigrants to the US originated over the last several decades. That's where the US population is projected to increase. It's projected to decrease or flatline otherwise.
In your example, there is no evidence that lack of collecting in Laos has a thing to do with money. That's an assumption I've read from US collectors regularly, including from you multiple times. Affluence is a necessary precondition but in and of itself won't convert anyone into a coin collector. Look at African Americans. Most with an office job work with many of them. These professionals seemingly have money for everything else, but apparently seldom one for coins.
The quality supply in most countries is disproportionately pitiful, so there is no shortage of these people to buy the best of their own coinage. Thousands to millions of millionaires in literally every country. In the countries I am actually writing about, a high proportion of these cultures never struck their own coinage until independence. They don't buy it because they don't want it.
This discussion we’re having, it’s no different in substance to the rebuttals I previously received when I told this forum that non-collectors and non-US collectors aren’t interested in buying some mega-priced US coin. Like it's supposed to be believable that these two groups want it more than a US coin collector. It's a lottery probability event and as anything else, it's nonsensical.
Yeah. I don't know how "accurate" it is, but it is certainly highly speculative without any supporting data. And certainly to say there is no collecting base in Asia is, at best, an exaggeration. The explosion in prices of Chinese material was not driven by "Caucasion male" participation. It was quite clearly driven by growing affluence in China. There is also a solid Japanese collecting community. The lack of such a community in, for example, Laos would certainly not be anything but the wealth effect.
It is true that some countries apparently have little or no history of coin collecting but I'm quite sure this is cultural rather than racial. Cultures evolve rapidly and if there's something good to collect a small portion of the population has the genes to do it. Most countries have some really great coins and most of them are very inexpensive BECAUSE there is little coin collecting at this time. As people learn about the coins and see they can be purchased I have little doubt collecting will expand in most countries. Some might fall through the cracks due largely to small populations and random chance but until coins are no longer produced I'd look for expanding population bases in almost every country with no history of collecting coins.
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Over time, the participation rate (the metric you are referencing) will almost certainly decline. This should be evident from US Census Bureau (and other) forecasts which are certainly "directionally" accurate. This is independent of any other "macro" changes: future economic and financial conditions, gold and silver prices, US Mint decisions, etc.
The ethnic groups projected to account for the vast majority of the increase don't have an equivalent collecting tradition to the primary historical collecting demographic, or one at all. A prior post mentions or at least infers a human tendency toward collecting but that's not universal. There is a limited collecting culture in Latin America and most Asian countries (none or virtually none in many or most) and it's not even noticeable in Africa outside of South Africa.
There isn't any magical pixie dust on US soil which is going to transform an equivalent proportion of these people into future collectors. And contrary to what seems to be a widespread belief, it has nothing to do with affluence or lack of it either. There isn't a single country where there aren't thousands to millions who can afford to collect at the same financial level as those reading my post now. It's not a lack of affluence, it's a lack of interest.
How this demographic change will impact the US coin market will vary, but it's almost a virtual certainty that these people will collect US coinage in (much) lower proportion if at all and when they do, much less likely to be candidates to be the buyers of the coins usually discussed on the US Coin Forum. Most of them won't an equivalent cultural affinity for it.
It will require a larger participation rate by the primary historical demographic group (Caucasian male) to keep the collector base stable or increase it.
I also think that more people will be open to casually collecting than you might think despite my steadfast belief that bullion is the future. The way to do it is likely through reusing historical designs but this time on circulating coinage. I am sure enough people would be inclined to casually put away a coin that had a Seated Liberty or Barber image versus any of the modern quarters coming out today. State Quarters succeeded because of state pride, America the Beautiful and American Women quarters merely honor people and places and does not tell the story of the money that used to be used. Regardless the single thing the US Mint can also do is push for marketing where it is culturally accepted for people to give gold coins during weddings and important happy life events instead of bridal and baby registries like what is done in Turkey. That would cause gold coin mintages to skyrocket when it is most needed. Turkish gold coin production already outpaces the US Mint and it is a country of 85 million, imagine the market a country of 340 million will have. The De Beers company were successful with diamonds like this.
Another general comment which might apply to your comments but not specifically directed to you.
The primary and in some instances only reason anyone cares is due to future resale.
The industry doesn't actually care about casual or low budget collecting, except to the extent that they can convert these people into bigger spenders later. There is no money or at least hardly any selling SQ sets or similar coins. I don't believe most members of this forum care either.
Fortunately for the hobby in the US, the US Mint does a lot of the heavy lifting with most of the rest done by the appeal of gold and silver as "investments" where buyers do transition to collectors of other coins. That's a windfall of essentially free advertising other industries can only dream of. The physical footprint (B&Ms and retailers selling hobby related items) has declined substantially over the decades. If the hobby had to rely on the ANA, coin shows and existing collectors to promote it, we'd be having an entirely different conversation. With the internet, the hobby is more accessible than ever for those who want to participate, but less visible to the non-collecting public versus 1975 when I first started.
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Respectfully, this premise is misguided when considering how much of that population growth is fueled by folks who do not share any sense of a common culture or history, let alone a common language.
Either way, all of our best attempts at prognosticating are irrelevant and unnecessary. The U.S. Mint is in the process of fixing everything with lotteries and privy marks!
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Demographics plus ANA membership and show attendance numbers suggest that the hobby is stagnant to growing slightly. If it is growing, it is still growing at a rate lower than population/gdp. Coin collecting is getting less popular as a hobby relative to other hobbies. The "old" hobby of chess has done considerably well over the past 5 years by comparison.
The r/coins subreddit has 223k members. The EA Sports FC subreddit (which is a popular, single video game) has 1.2M members. Powerlifting has 552k members. Birding has 548k members. Pottery has 181k.
You can concede that any data point on coin collecting mentioned in this discussion is limited in scope. But when none of them have been able to show that coin collecting has grown in any significant way over the past decade, I think that still goes a long way to answering the original question.
@neildrobertson said:
Demographics plus ANA membership and show attendance numbers suggest that the hobby is stagnant to growing slightly. If it is growing, it is still growing at a rate lower than population/gdp. Coin collecting is getting less popular as a hobby relative to other hobbies. The "old" hobby of chess has done considerably well over the past 5 years by comparison.
The r/coins subreddit has 223k members. The EA Sports FC subreddit (which is a popular, single video game) has 1.2M members. Powerlifting has 552k members. Birding has 548k members. Pottery has 181k.
You can concede that any data point on coin collecting mentioned in this discussion is limited in scope. But when none of them have been able to show that coin collecting has grown in any significant way over the past decade, I think that still goes a long way to answering the original question.
I think people are neglecting a few facts. Chiefly is that dealers, show attendees, ANA membership, and active collectors who spend a lot of money tends to all be older people, in their '50's and '60's. The baby boomers who still make up a large percentage of these groups are fast passing out of them and are often retired or no longer active collectors. They are even net sellers.
The younger collectors are out there but they don't yet have a lot of disposable income, time, and resources to be major market forces. But still we can see the vanguard of these younger folks who are in their 40's and '50's and even some younger people at coin shows. Most are not yet a force to be reckoned with but this will come around as the years pass.
I find it a wonder the hobby can even tread water as the baby boomers retire.
And has been pointed out there are still growing pockets of interest in US coins all over the world.
I predicted many years ago this slack period would come. It is a little later and much less significant than I had predicted but it is still just mere demographics and was unavoidable.
I think people are neglecting a few facts. Chiefly is that dealers, show attendees, ANA membership, and active collectors who spend a lot of money tends to all be older people, in their '50's and '60's. The baby boomers who still make up a large percentage of these groups are fast passing out of them and are often retired or no longer active collectors. They are even net sellers.
The younger collectors are out there but they don't yet have a lot of disposable income, time, and resources to be major market forces. But still we can see the vanguard of these younger folks who are in their 40's and '50's and even some younger people at coin shows. Most are not yet a force to be reckoned with but this will come around as the years pass.
I find it a wonder the hobby can even tread water as the baby boomers retire.
And has been pointed out there are still growing pockets of interest in US coins all over the world.
I predicted many years ago this slack period would come. It is a little later and much less significant than I had predicted but it is still just mere demographics and was unavoidable.
The general trends you mention about age seem to be perennial "threats" to the hobby. When I go back and read Numismatist issues from 100 years ago, they had similar fears back then. The hobby has for a long time skewed older and there has always been a relative steady stream of fresh old faces to the hobby. The fact that the number of people who are 55 and older in the US has grown significantly over the past 20 years may be propping prices up when otherwise things would have been in decline. If this is true, we should start seeing a steady decline since the population of people over 55 appears to be starting to stabilize and even decline.
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Respectfully, this premise is misguided when considering how much of that population growth is fueled by folks who do not share any sense of a common culture or history, let alone a common language.
Either way, all of our best attempts at prognosticating are irrelevant and unnecessary. The U.S. Mint is in the process of fixing everything with lotteries and privy marks!
I'm sure that's what you meant, right? No common culture or history or language, clannish, keep to themselves and bring over their old world traditions. Can't believe how much they are watering down REAL American culture!
You can continue to lament immigration to the US, as has been your wont (on a Coin forum of all places). Or, just give it a generation and the melting pot works and the differences disappear. Like with every other group of immigrants to America ever. Yes, even your ancestors.
The general trends you mention about age seem to be perennial "threats" to the hobby. When I go back and read Numismatist issues from 100 years ago, they had similar fears back then. The hobby has for a long time skewed older and there has always been a relative steady stream of fresh old faces to the hobby. The fact that the number of people who are 55 and older in the US has grown significantly over the past 20 years may be propping prices up when otherwise things would have been in decline. If this is true, we should start seeing a steady decline since the population of people over 55 appears to be starting to stabilize and even decline.
But don't forget that the bulge in people of prime market moving age are off set by older baby boomers who have been selling as long as 20 years now. I don't think we're quite over the hump but coins are being absorbed by the market without any sort of serios corrections. Apparently growth in the populations of younger collectors are offsetting the increasing selling by boomers. This bodes very well for the hobby. Selling by boomers should peak within five years and then the market might boom.
I honestly think demographics will play a very small role in the future of coin collecting. I think access to information will play a much bigger role.
If you watch a cowboy channel called True Grit lately you will see ads selling Morgan Dollars because according to the add "A large number of these rare coins were recently discovered."
(I think they say 2, 845 or some such thing.) The point is that their target audience is the rapidly shrinking group of people who haven't take advantage of the readily accessible information that there are millions of Morgan dollars. The number of people who will fall for disinformation is going to continue to shrink. As a result of this which coins are collected and what is actually rare enough to be considered collectible is probably going to go through a drastic change. just my opinion of course. James
I left the hobby when I went to college and returned when I was in my early 30s. When I was young most collectors were middle age to old men, when I came back to the hobby most collectors were middle age to old men, over the last 30 years since I returned most collectors have been middle age to old men. So there seems to be big supply of middle age to old men who like coins. I don't think coin collecting is going away any time soon. But I guess anything is possible, just look at stamp collection.
I predict that in the next 20-25 years, the Mint will slow or halt production of some coinage, perhaps with the exception of collectables like silver rounds, gold rounds, and commemorative coins. This being due to the fact that most commerce is now done electronically, using credit/debit cards.
At that point, I believe the hobby will get a large influx of new collectors. Just my best guess.
One thing is certain, and that is the fact that coins are quickly becoming less and less relevant in todays commerce. Heck, even paper money is being used far less than it was just 20 years ago. Remember when vending machines only took change? Then, in the early 2000's, we started seeing vending machines that took paper money as well. Around 2010 or so, credit/debit card readers started being common on vending machines.
I use vending machines as an example, but the same is true for just about everything. We even pay at the table with our credit card in restaurants, in many cases, these days.
@abbyme24 said:
Actually now that I'm thinking, I think something like ANA membership would be the most accurate easily-available datapoint to draw assumptions on.
I don't think so, long time collector, buy at 20-30 shows a year. Was a member, but don't see the value of membership.
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Respectfully, this premise is misguided when considering how much of that population growth is fueled by folks who do not share any sense of a common culture or history, let alone a common language.
Either way, all of our best attempts at prognosticating are irrelevant and unnecessary. The U.S. Mint is in the process of fixing everything with lotteries and privy marks!
I'm sure that's what you meant, right? No common culture or history or language, clannish, keep to themselves and bring over their old world traditions. Can't believe how much they are watering down REAL American culture!
You can continue to lament immigration to the US, as has been your wont (on a Coin forum of all places). Or, just give it a generation and the melting pot works and the differences disappear. Like with every other group of immigrants to America ever. Yes, even your ancestors.
Assume much? Or, do you claim to be a mind reader? Nobody is lamenting anything. It’s common sense that a demographic shift will impact all facets of a society in the near term.
Why do you have such a grudge against Italians? “Those dang Italians.” Very nice. I love it when a bigot and racist exposes themself for who they really are. Disgraceful conduct that will be reported.
And thanks for the history lesson everyone already knows, and nobody needed. Your attempt at insulting me is pathetic. Try harder! Put on your big boy pants next time.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Respectfully, this premise is misguided when considering how much of that population growth is fueled by folks who do not share any sense of a common culture or history, let alone a common language.
Either way, all of our best attempts at prognosticating are irrelevant and unnecessary. The U.S. Mint is in the process of fixing everything with lotteries and privy marks!
I'm sure that's what you meant, right? No common culture or history or language, clannish, keep to themselves and bring over their old world traditions. Can't believe how much they are watering down REAL American culture!
You can continue to lament immigration to the US, as has been your wont (on a Coin forum of all places). Or, just give it a generation and the melting pot works and the differences disappear. Like with every other group of immigrants to America ever. Yes, even your ancestors.
Assume much? Or, do you claim to be a mind reader? Nobody is lamenting anything. It’s common sense that a demographic shift will impact all facets of a society in the near term.
Why do you have such a grudge against Italians? “Those dang Italians.” Very nice. I love it when a bigot and racist exposes themself for who they really are. Disgraceful conduct that will be reported.
And thanks for the history lesson everyone already knows, and nobody needed. Your attempt at insulting me is pathetic. Try harder! Put on your big boy pants next time.
Not an attempt to insult and not an assumption. Just hoping you can give a second guess to the rationale behind some of the dog whistles you post here from time to time.
And if you really think I displayed racism/bigotry (rather than trying to "turn the tables on me" as seems likely) then it's a lost cause anyway.
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Respectfully, this premise is misguided when considering how much of that population growth is fueled by folks who do not share any sense of a common culture or history, let alone a common language.
Either way, all of our best attempts at prognosticating are irrelevant and unnecessary. The U.S. Mint is in the process of fixing everything with lotteries and privy marks!
I'm sure that's what you meant, right? No common culture or history or language, clannish, keep to themselves and bring over their old world traditions. Can't believe how much they are watering down REAL American culture!
You can continue to lament immigration to the US, as has been your wont (on a Coin forum of all places). Or, just give it a generation and the melting pot works and the differences disappear. Like with every other group of immigrants to America ever. Yes, even your ancestors.
Assume much? Or, do you claim to be a mind reader? Nobody is lamenting anything. It’s common sense that a demographic shift will impact all facets of a society in the near term.
Why do you have such a grudge against Italians? “Those dang Italians.” Very nice. I love it when a bigot and racist exposes themself for who they really are. Disgraceful conduct that will be reported.
And thanks for the history lesson everyone already knows, and nobody needed. Your attempt at insulting me is pathetic. Try harder! Put on your big boy pants next time.
I don't think that he was actually insulting Italians. It seemed like more of a joke to me.
God bless all who believe in him. Do unto others what you expect to be done to you. Dubbed a "Committee Secret Agent" by @mr1931S on 7/23/24. Founding member of CU Anti-Troll League since 9/24/24.
Comments
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
The number of classic US coins probably declined a little during that time period, so if a stable number of collectors are chasing a relatively stable (or declining) number of collectibles, then the hobby is holding steady.
As @Goldminers said - the stability is the point. The question in the OP is, "is this a declining hobby?" and this particular data (which I acknowledge is just one of many) answers, "no."
New website: Groovycoins.com Capped Bust Half Dime registry set: Bikergeek CBHD LM Set
Agree with this - the hobby may involve a lower per capita slice of the population, but as long as the demand for the available supply of collectible coins remains pretty constant, it argues that the hobby isn't "in decline." (You may infer what you want about my opinion of moderns.)
New website: Groovycoins.com Capped Bust Half Dime registry set: Bikergeek CBHD LM Set
Without data everything is anecdotal, but even data like ANA attendance isn't necessarily useful. There are so many variables that could result in year to year differences in attendance that you can't really draw any conclusions from it. Now if you were somehow able to get attendance data for every show in the country, big and small, and compare that year to year, that would be a lot more useful. But even then, that wouldnt account for shifts from in-person to online.
A more accurate metric would probably be sales volume, both in units and $ amounts, but that would be impossible to accurately gather. The best you could probably do is look at sales figures from Stacks/Heritage/GC, but that also doesn't account for broader market changes (i.e. are number of coins sold through those going up because collectorship is increasing, or because a higher % of coin sales are going through them?)
Actually now that I'm thinking, I think something like ANA membership would be the most accurate easily-available datapoint to draw assumptions on. I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of "serious" coin collectors are ANA members (someone asked how to even define who is a collector, and I think ANA membership would be a decent indicator), and that is something that you could compare year to year.
I have said this before and will say it again. Right now we are living in the golden age of coin collecting. Why? Information. I spent the first 30 years of my collecting experience with a mere hand full of reference books and most of those were generalized. At one time I begged David Lawrence to reprint the Wiley/Bugert book on Seated Halves. The closest I got in a three year period was a copy on E-Bay, torn into 3 pieces with an asking price over $500 dollars. today I not only have a free copy of that book on my computer I have 5 other deeper dive books on the same subject at my fingertip. What would you like to know about, Seated dimes, Bust halves, Morgan dollars? Those are just a few of the detailed books anyone has access to now.
Every Sunday my wife watches a show called Collectors Call. They have never done coins, usually it is toys and Hollywood material, but every show has the same mantra. "What did you pay for this?" "I think ten dollars". "What is it worth now?" A person declared expert will pronounce, "This is now a $10,00 dollar toy." Why? Because of information. The other constant theme is that the internet is now full of sites on this or that very topic. Every one is an expert.
I have no fears for coin collecting. I do wonder how coin dealers manage to make a living. At one time they and perhaps a hand full of others my recognize a certain variety up for sale. Today thousands have that information in their hand. you don't think they are going to use it? I know I DO!!! James
Actually, that's incorrectly stated. The number of collectors do NOT need to increase with population to keep the "same number of collectors". It would only need to grow to keep the same "percentage" of collectors.
You do not need more (number) collectors to sustain the market.
Worth paying attention to is the frequency of threads mentioning "coin market condition."
Changing, not declining at all.
After @abbyme24 said this, I asked ANA if they could provide the numbers. I heard back from Donna Frater, ANA's Director of Development & Membership at the ANA. Donna credits her teammates with helping compile the data Here's her response:
"I'm not sure that ANA membership numbers would be an accurate representation for how coin collecting is doing as a whole. Not everyone who is a coin collector joins the ANA and there are those who may want to join but can't (whether for monetary reasons, time investment, etc.). Coin collecting is hard to measure, especially since there are varying degrees of interest and involvement. Someone who collects every now and then for fun may not consider themselves a serious collector, so it's a bit difficult to quantify how coin collecting is or isn't on the decline.
It seems the question of whether numismatics is in decline has been around for quite a while.
As for ANA membership, we have hovered around the same number for the past ten years. See our annual averages.
2014 = 26,668
2015 = 24,124
2016 = 24,796
2017 = 24,925
2018 = 25,243
2019 = 24,673
2020 = 29,476*
2021 = 25,404
2022 = 26,606
2023 = 25,970
*The ANA gave a grace period to members who were due to renew and also engaged in a free membership program during National Coin Week as community support during the pandemic."
So, here's how that graphs out:
New website: Groovycoins.com Capped Bust Half Dime registry set: Bikergeek CBHD LM Set
There are many US collectors who only collect world coins and do not touch US coins. Additionally, there are many non-US collectors who now bid in US coin auctions via the internet, both for US coins and world coins.
So while US collectors of US coins may be stable or decreasing, these other categories of collectors help account for the overall increase.
Look, if you like something, can afford it, it's not illegal and you're not getting into someone else's space / face, and you like it, do it. I racewalk. I'm probably the only one in my zipcode who does this, the sport is becoming extinct in the U.S., and I don't care. I do it because I like doing it. If you feel the same way about collecting coins, have at it.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I share the sentiment of the posts describing the amazing access to information nowadays and how the rest of the world is collecting more. I remember back in the day before online auction and sales information - evaluating coins was tough. Now we have a much better idea of what's really rare and what isn't. It's opened up all kinds of formerly mysterious series to collecting. There's much more knowledge and communication available at our fingertips, and that's great for collectors.
If coin collecting dies, I'd pretend to be Mickley - how he talked about the decades in the 1830s-50s without substantial competition from other collectors - and I'd amass an amazing collection, and then I'd monastically devote my life to overprotecting it with numismatically-themed booby traps. Anyway, that's my personal plan.
I'm much older and still do that
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coinJP, Outhaul ,illini420,MICHAELDIXON, Fade to Black,epcjimi1,19Lyds,SNMAN,JerseyJoe, bigjpst, DMWJR , lordmarcovan, Weiss,Mfriday4962,UtahCoin,Downtown1974,pitboss,RichieURich,Bullsitter,JDsCoins,toyz4geo,jshaulis, mustanggt, SNMAN, MWallace, ms71
It’s a matter of opinion - I track the PCGS 3000 stat - it has been far outpaced by gold and silver the last year. I am not saying collecting is declining but many going to other areas vs US Classic Coins. I would like to see a similar stat for Currency. Possibly take the BN book then a MV stat for every country and track (AI). But what about graded notes which are a major part of currency investment. Many in my coin club have gone to currency bc coins they been there done that. It doesn’t mean they are not spending at shows.
That’s some neat attendance stats on Chicago, LA, and Philly. I want make spreadsheet /graph on them by city. But all three have huge populations with big money. Plus what is total show spending those venues. Attendance can be stable but total spending a different more pertinent analytical data stream.
Data tells some of the story but not the entire story. Bullion will be the future of this hobby, not base metal circulation coins.
It's been my inference for a long time that this is the primary driver behind generic classic US gold, Morgan dollars and Peace dollars. The coins are either too expensive (gold and maybe some Morgans) or too common for it to be mostly bought by hobbyist collectors.
I also agree that sharply higher metal prices are a problem for recreational collecting. Most collectors don't and never did collect gold, but much higher silver spot will squeeze budgets even more by (noticeably) reducing affordable options.
I expect this to not be a good practice longer term. Depends upon the coin and the price variance but the price differences are frequently disproportionate to what the coin actually is as a collectible. The (mostly US) price level and price structure for most if not all coins of "meaningful" value are also contingent on the greatest asset, credit, and debt mania in the history of human civilization. That's where most of the "wealth" originates to pay for much of it. (Yes, I know most aren't aware of it and of those who admit it, most seem to think it will last "forever".)
These are actually bullions coins which due to large-scale hoarding, must exist by the millions for practically all dates in grades up to MS-66. I pulled about 100 "choice" to "gem" quarters from a $500 bag a few months ago. Most are 1964, but I found a few from the 40's and more than a few from the 50's. Some were "blast white" but others are nicely toned. There are nowhere near enough actual collectors for the supply at more than low premiums to "melt".
Depends upon the reason for the price decline and the scope. If there is a general "everything" crash, the prices of actually scarce and rare (as opposed to the current US definition) world coinage will almost entirely be contingent upon the personal preferences and financial circumstances of a (very) low number, maybe as few as a handful. Most world coins lack equivalent liquidity and depending upon what it is, might also lack equivalent actual collector (as opposed to "investor") interest.
I observed this experience is real time when South Africa used to be my primary collecting interest. Starting buying the Union (and some ZAR) series in larger number in 2002 and could see a bubble by the end of the decade. I sold practically all of my better coins in 2009 and 2010. The market (if it can even be called that it's so small) peaked roughly around YE 2011.
It's crashed and burned since, never recovering. My explanation for it is that the price run-up was similar to the US leading up to the 1989/1990 crash, just at a much smaller scale. Both were the result of excessive financially motivated buying and lack of interest in recreational collecting. Both were the result of a change in buyer preference for TPG.
Over time, the participation rate (the metric you are referencing) will almost certainly decline. This should be evident from US Census Bureau (and other) forecasts which are certainly "directionally" accurate. This is independent of any other "macro" changes: future economic and financial conditions, gold and silver prices, US Mint decisions, etc.
The ethnic groups projected to account for the vast majority of the increase don't have an equivalent collecting tradition to the primary historical collecting demographic, or one at all. A prior post mentions or at least infers a human tendency toward collecting but that's not universal. There is a limited collecting culture in Latin America and most Asian countries (none or virtually none in many or most) and it's not even noticeable in Africa outside of South Africa.
There isn't any magical pixie dust on US soil which is going to transform an equivalent proportion of these people into future collectors. And contrary to what seems to be a widespread belief, it has nothing to do with affluence or lack of it either. There isn't a single country where there aren't thousands to millions who can afford to collect at the same financial level as those reading my post now. It's not a lack of affluence, it's a lack of interest.
How this demographic change will impact the US coin market will vary, but it's almost a virtual certainty that these people will collect US coinage in (much) lower proportion if at all and when they do, much less likely to be candidates to be the buyers of the coins usually discussed on the US Coin Forum. Most of them won't an equivalent cultural affinity for it.
It will require a larger participation rate by the primary historical demographic group (Caucasian male) to keep the collector base stable or increase it.
I can only speak for the area around my location and who I know. A relative and a neighbor collected somewhat. Both have passed away recently. The neighbor had his collection left to family. The relative did the same. Whether those that received the coins will continue to collect is unknown. My feeling is the coins will be liquidated.
good grief man, this is so inaccurate I don't have the time
Yeah. I don't know how "accurate" it is, but it is certainly highly speculative without any supporting data. And certainly to say there is no collecting base in Asia is, at best, an exaggeration. The explosion in prices of Chinese material was not driven by "Caucasion male" participation. It was quite clearly driven by growing affluence in China. There is also a solid Japanese collecting community. The lack of such a community in, for example, Laos would certainly not be anything but the wealth effect.
To a local coin shop or at the bank sadly.
I also think that more people will be open to casually collecting than you might think despite my steadfast belief that bullion is the future. The way to do it is likely through reusing historical designs but this time on circulating coinage. I am sure enough people would be inclined to casually put away a coin that had a Seated Liberty or Barber image versus any of the modern quarters coming out today. State Quarters succeeded because of state pride, America the Beautiful and American Women quarters merely honor people and places and does not tell the story of the money that used to be used. Regardless the single thing the US Mint can also do is push for marketing where it is culturally accepted for people to give gold coins during weddings and important happy life events instead of bridal and baby registries like what is done in Turkey. That would cause gold coin mintages to skyrocket when it is most needed. Turkish gold coin production already outpaces the US Mint and it is a country of 85 million, imagine the market a country of 340 million will have. The De Beers company were successful with diamonds like this.
Looking at the prices of coins, I would say the answer is No. People are still buying and paying higher prices.
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
We are a country of many types of collectors; the only real limitation is affordability.
At a certain level, you either go big or go home.
If a coin has little or no collector base, then it has no long term investment potential. Unlike stocks and bonds, coins to not pay dividends or interest. Therefore they only increase in value if those who admire them are willing to pay more. If they aren't, the "investors" are using the "bigger fool" model to make money. When that merry-go-round stops, the game is over.
Well, no offense, but I keep meeting 95+% oldsters. Have you ever looked at Charmy's reports and who is there or Acousha's YouTube exploits/sales, etc. as examples????? Older than old.
Well, just Love coins, period.
Wanna add a bit of "non-data" input to the conversation. I've coin roll hunted with my three grandsons over the past few years, and given them some Whitman folders that we've partially filled together. Yesterday my 13 YO grandson sent me this image of a set he was gifted. He's thrilled. When I see it in person, I, too, will be thrilled on his behalf.
New website: Groovycoins.com Capped Bust Half Dime registry set: Bikergeek CBHD LM Set
I think there will always be interest especially in bullion material. Just don’t run up credit card debt acquiring them.
You are probably correct. And that is a shame. My neighbor had a nice assortment of silver and rolls of Franklin's in BU. I reached out to his heirs, but no followup response. Must of had other plans.
I know there is collecting in Asia, with as examples only, an active market in China and Japan. I'm not that ignorant. I'm not referring to most of Europe or the Anglo countries either. Thanks, but I know there is collecting there too. I was referring to most (not all) of the developing world where immigrants to the US originated over the last several decades. That's where the US population is projected to increase. It's projected to decrease or flatline otherwise.
In your example, there is no evidence that lack of collecting in Laos has a thing to do with money. That's an assumption I've read from US collectors regularly, including from you multiple times. Affluence is a necessary precondition but in and of itself won't convert anyone into a coin collector. Look at African Americans. Most with an office job work with many of them. These professionals seemingly have money for everything else, but apparently seldom one for coins.
The quality supply in most countries is disproportionately pitiful, so there is no shortage of these people to buy the best of their own coinage. Thousands to millions of millionaires in literally every country. In the countries I am actually writing about, a high proportion of these cultures never struck their own coinage until independence. They don't buy it because they don't want it.
This discussion we’re having, it’s no different in substance to the rebuttals I previously received when I told this forum that non-collectors and non-US collectors aren’t interested in buying some mega-priced US coin. Like it's supposed to be believable that these two groups want it more than a US coin collector. It's a lottery probability event and as anything else, it's nonsensical.
It is true that some countries apparently have little or no history of coin collecting but I'm quite sure this is cultural rather than racial. Cultures evolve rapidly and if there's something good to collect a small portion of the population has the genes to do it. Most countries have some really great coins and most of them are very inexpensive BECAUSE there is little coin collecting at this time. As people learn about the coins and see they can be purchased I have little doubt collecting will expand in most countries. Some might fall through the cracks due largely to small populations and random chance but until coins are no longer produced I'd look for expanding population bases in almost every country with no history of collecting coins.
Another general comment which might apply to your comments but not specifically directed to you.
The primary and in some instances only reason anyone cares is due to future resale.
The industry doesn't actually care about casual or low budget collecting, except to the extent that they can convert these people into bigger spenders later. There is no money or at least hardly any selling SQ sets or similar coins. I don't believe most members of this forum care either.
Fortunately for the hobby in the US, the US Mint does a lot of the heavy lifting with most of the rest done by the appeal of gold and silver as "investments" where buyers do transition to collectors of other coins. That's a windfall of essentially free advertising other industries can only dream of. The physical footprint (B&Ms and retailers selling hobby related items) has declined substantially over the decades. If the hobby had to rely on the ANA, coin shows and existing collectors to promote it, we'd be having an entirely different conversation. With the internet, the hobby is more accessible than ever for those who want to participate, but less visible to the non-collecting public versus 1975 when I first started.
Respectfully, this premise is misguided when considering how much of that population growth is fueled by folks who do not share any sense of a common culture or history, let alone a common language.
Either way, all of our best attempts at prognosticating are irrelevant and unnecessary. The U.S. Mint is in the process of fixing everything with lotteries and privy marks!
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Demographics plus ANA membership and show attendance numbers suggest that the hobby is stagnant to growing slightly. If it is growing, it is still growing at a rate lower than population/gdp. Coin collecting is getting less popular as a hobby relative to other hobbies. The "old" hobby of chess has done considerably well over the past 5 years by comparison.
The r/coins subreddit has 223k members. The EA Sports FC subreddit (which is a popular, single video game) has 1.2M members. Powerlifting has 552k members. Birding has 548k members. Pottery has 181k.
You can concede that any data point on coin collecting mentioned in this discussion is limited in scope. But when none of them have been able to show that coin collecting has grown in any significant way over the past decade, I think that still goes a long way to answering the original question.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
I think people are neglecting a few facts. Chiefly is that dealers, show attendees, ANA membership, and active collectors who spend a lot of money tends to all be older people, in their '50's and '60's. The baby boomers who still make up a large percentage of these groups are fast passing out of them and are often retired or no longer active collectors. They are even net sellers.
The younger collectors are out there but they don't yet have a lot of disposable income, time, and resources to be major market forces. But still we can see the vanguard of these younger folks who are in their 40's and '50's and even some younger people at coin shows. Most are not yet a force to be reckoned with but this will come around as the years pass.
I find it a wonder the hobby can even tread water as the baby boomers retire.
And has been pointed out there are still growing pockets of interest in US coins all over the world.
I predicted many years ago this slack period would come. It is a little later and much less significant than I had predicted but it is still just mere demographics and was unavoidable.
The general trends you mention about age seem to be perennial "threats" to the hobby. When I go back and read Numismatist issues from 100 years ago, they had similar fears back then. The hobby has for a long time skewed older and there has always been a relative steady stream of fresh old faces to the hobby. The fact that the number of people who are 55 and older in the US has grown significantly over the past 20 years may be propping prices up when otherwise things would have been in decline. If this is true, we should start seeing a steady decline since the population of people over 55 appears to be starting to stabilize and even decline.
Image copied from https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/stories/2023/05/aging-united-states-population-fewer-children-in-2020-figure-2.jpg
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
Those dang Italians!!!
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1074911/number-of-italian-migrants-to-the-united-states/
I'm sure that's what you meant, right? No common culture or history or language, clannish, keep to themselves and bring over their old world traditions. Can't believe how much they are watering down REAL American culture!
You can continue to lament immigration to the US, as has been your wont (on a Coin forum of all places). Or, just give it a generation and the melting pot works and the differences disappear. Like with every other group of immigrants to America ever. Yes, even your ancestors.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
Yes.
But don't forget that the bulge in people of prime market moving age are off set by older baby boomers who have been selling as long as 20 years now. I don't think we're quite over the hump but coins are being absorbed by the market without any sort of serios corrections. Apparently growth in the populations of younger collectors are offsetting the increasing selling by boomers. This bodes very well for the hobby. Selling by boomers should peak within five years and then the market might boom.
I honestly think demographics will play a very small role in the future of coin collecting. I think access to information will play a much bigger role.
If you watch a cowboy channel called True Grit lately you will see ads selling Morgan Dollars because according to the add "A large number of these rare coins were recently discovered."
(I think they say 2, 845 or some such thing.) The point is that their target audience is the rapidly shrinking group of people who haven't take advantage of the readily accessible information that there are millions of Morgan dollars. The number of people who will fall for disinformation is going to continue to shrink. As a result of this which coins are collected and what is actually rare enough to be considered collectible is probably going to go through a drastic change. just my opinion of course. James
I left the hobby when I went to college and returned when I was in my early 30s. When I was young most collectors were middle age to old men, when I came back to the hobby most collectors were middle age to old men, over the last 30 years since I returned most collectors have been middle age to old men. So there seems to be big supply of middle age to old men who like coins. I don't think coin collecting is going away any time soon. But I guess anything is possible, just look at stamp collection.
I predict that in the next 20-25 years, the Mint will slow or halt production of some coinage, perhaps with the exception of collectables like silver rounds, gold rounds, and commemorative coins. This being due to the fact that most commerce is now done electronically, using credit/debit cards.
At that point, I believe the hobby will get a large influx of new collectors. Just my best guess.
One thing is certain, and that is the fact that coins are quickly becoming less and less relevant in todays commerce. Heck, even paper money is being used far less than it was just 20 years ago. Remember when vending machines only took change? Then, in the early 2000's, we started seeing vending machines that took paper money as well. Around 2010 or so, credit/debit card readers started being common on vending machines.
I use vending machines as an example, but the same is true for just about everything. We even pay at the table with our credit card in restaurants, in many cases, these days.
I don't think so, long time collector, buy at 20-30 shows a year. Was a member, but don't see the value of membership.
Assume much? Or, do you claim to be a mind reader? Nobody is lamenting anything. It’s common sense that a demographic shift will impact all facets of a society in the near term.
Why do you have such a grudge against Italians? “Those dang Italians.” Very nice. I love it when a bigot and racist exposes themself for who they really are. Disgraceful conduct that will be reported.
And thanks for the history lesson everyone already knows, and nobody needed. Your attempt at insulting me is pathetic. Try harder! Put on your big boy pants next time.
Having fun while switching things up and focusing on a next level PCGS slabbed 1950+ type set, while still looking for great examples for the 7070.
Not an attempt to insult and not an assumption. Just hoping you can give a second guess to the rationale behind some of the dog whistles you post here from time to time.
And if you really think I displayed racism/bigotry (rather than trying to "turn the tables on me" as seems likely) then it's a lost cause anyway.
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US & World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
I don't think that he was actually insulting Italians. It seemed like more of a joke to me.
God bless all who believe in him. Do unto others what you expect to be done to you. Dubbed a "Committee Secret Agent" by @mr1931S on 7/23/24. Founding member of CU Anti-Troll League since 9/24/24.