U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Collector and dealer in obsolete currency. Always buying all obsolete bank notes and scrip.
The number of classic US coins probably declined a little during that time period, so if a stable number of collectors are chasing a relatively stable (or declining) number of collectibles, then the hobby is holding steady.
What exactly do you find to be interesting? Looks fairly stable to me.
As @Goldminers said - the stability is the point. The question in the OP is, "is this a declining hobby?" and this particular data (which I acknowledge is just one of many) answers, "no."
@ShaunBC5 said:
The number of classic US coins probably declined a little during that time period, so if a stable number of collectors are chasing a relatively stable (or declining) number of collectibles, then the hobby is holding steady.
Agree with this - the hobby may involve a lower per capita slice of the population, but as long as the demand for the available supply of collectible coins remains pretty constant, it argues that the hobby isn't "in decline." (You may infer what you want about my opinion of moderns.)
Without data everything is anecdotal, but even data like ANA attendance isn't necessarily useful. There are so many variables that could result in year to year differences in attendance that you can't really draw any conclusions from it. Now if you were somehow able to get attendance data for every show in the country, big and small, and compare that year to year, that would be a lot more useful. But even then, that wouldnt account for shifts from in-person to online.
A more accurate metric would probably be sales volume, both in units and $ amounts, but that would be impossible to accurately gather. The best you could probably do is look at sales figures from Stacks/Heritage/GC, but that also doesn't account for broader market changes (i.e. are number of coins sold through those going up because collectorship is increasing, or because a higher % of coin sales are going through them?)
Actually now that I'm thinking, I think something like ANA membership would be the most accurate easily-available datapoint to draw assumptions on. I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of "serious" coin collectors are ANA members (someone asked how to even define who is a collector, and I think ANA membership would be a decent indicator), and that is something that you could compare year to year.
I have said this before and will say it again. Right now we are living in the golden age of coin collecting. Why? Information. I spent the first 30 years of my collecting experience with a mere hand full of reference books and most of those were generalized. At one time I begged David Lawrence to reprint the Wiley/Bugert book on Seated Halves. The closest I got in a three year period was a copy on E-Bay, torn into 3 pieces with an asking price over $500 dollars. today I not only have a free copy of that book on my computer I have 5 other deeper dive books on the same subject at my fingertip. What would you like to know about, Seated dimes, Bust halves, Morgan dollars? Those are just a few of the detailed books anyone has access to now.
Every Sunday my wife watches a show called Collectors Call. They have never done coins, usually it is toys and Hollywood material, but every show has the same mantra. "What did you pay for this?" "I think ten dollars". "What is it worth now?" A person declared expert will pronounce, "This is now a $10,00 dollar toy." Why? Because of information. The other constant theme is that the internet is now full of sites on this or that very topic. Every one is an expert.
I have no fears for coin collecting. I do wonder how coin dealers manage to make a living. At one time they and perhaps a hand full of others my recognize a certain variety up for sale. Today thousands have that information in their hand. you don't think they are going to use it? I know I DO!!! James
@sellitstore said:
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
Actually, that's incorrectly stated. The number of collectors do NOT need to increase with population to keep the "same number of collectors". It would only need to grow to keep the same "percentage" of collectors.
You do not need more (number) collectors to sustain the market.
Comments
U.S. population grew about 10% during this period, so the same numbers actually represent a 10% proportional decline in interest. Not much but the number of collectors needs to keep pace with the growth in population to keep the same number of collectors.
The number of classic US coins probably declined a little during that time period, so if a stable number of collectors are chasing a relatively stable (or declining) number of collectibles, then the hobby is holding steady.
As @Goldminers said - the stability is the point. The question in the OP is, "is this a declining hobby?" and this particular data (which I acknowledge is just one of many) answers, "no."
New website: Groovycoins.com Capped Bust Half Dime registry set: Bikergeek CBHD LM Set
Agree with this - the hobby may involve a lower per capita slice of the population, but as long as the demand for the available supply of collectible coins remains pretty constant, it argues that the hobby isn't "in decline." (You may infer what you want about my opinion of moderns.)
New website: Groovycoins.com Capped Bust Half Dime registry set: Bikergeek CBHD LM Set
Without data everything is anecdotal, but even data like ANA attendance isn't necessarily useful. There are so many variables that could result in year to year differences in attendance that you can't really draw any conclusions from it. Now if you were somehow able to get attendance data for every show in the country, big and small, and compare that year to year, that would be a lot more useful. But even then, that wouldnt account for shifts from in-person to online.
A more accurate metric would probably be sales volume, both in units and $ amounts, but that would be impossible to accurately gather. The best you could probably do is look at sales figures from Stacks/Heritage/GC, but that also doesn't account for broader market changes (i.e. are number of coins sold through those going up because collectorship is increasing, or because a higher % of coin sales are going through them?)
Actually now that I'm thinking, I think something like ANA membership would be the most accurate easily-available datapoint to draw assumptions on. I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of "serious" coin collectors are ANA members (someone asked how to even define who is a collector, and I think ANA membership would be a decent indicator), and that is something that you could compare year to year.
I have said this before and will say it again. Right now we are living in the golden age of coin collecting. Why? Information. I spent the first 30 years of my collecting experience with a mere hand full of reference books and most of those were generalized. At one time I begged David Lawrence to reprint the Wiley/Bugert book on Seated Halves. The closest I got in a three year period was a copy on E-Bay, torn into 3 pieces with an asking price over $500 dollars. today I not only have a free copy of that book on my computer I have 5 other deeper dive books on the same subject at my fingertip. What would you like to know about, Seated dimes, Bust halves, Morgan dollars? Those are just a few of the detailed books anyone has access to now.
Every Sunday my wife watches a show called Collectors Call. They have never done coins, usually it is toys and Hollywood material, but every show has the same mantra. "What did you pay for this?" "I think ten dollars". "What is it worth now?" A person declared expert will pronounce, "This is now a $10,00 dollar toy." Why? Because of information. The other constant theme is that the internet is now full of sites on this or that very topic. Every one is an expert.
I have no fears for coin collecting. I do wonder how coin dealers manage to make a living. At one time they and perhaps a hand full of others my recognize a certain variety up for sale. Today thousands have that information in their hand. you don't think they are going to use it? I know I DO!!! James
Actually, that's incorrectly stated. The number of collectors do NOT need to increase with population to keep the "same number of collectors". It would only need to grow to keep the same "percentage" of collectors.
You do not need more (number) collectors to sustain the market.
Worth paying attention to is the frequency of threads mentioning "coin market condition."
Changing, not declining at all.