@coinbuf said:
Every bid I place is getting blown out of the water now just as it was that last few years, no slowdown that I can see.
@OAKSTAR said:
Through the roof inflation, interest rates, food and gas prices. When I'm finding more silver in my CRH'ing activities, tells me people are scraping the bottom of their piggy banks! Nonessential leisure activities and hobbies are probably put on the back burner.
All the data I have seen is showing rising consumer confidence and increased spending on travel and leisure activities. Every time I pass by a local restaurant the line is out the door even at lunch. There are some folks that are still getting squeezed for sure, but for the most part spending is on the rise maybe just not for coins at this time.
Good point, but what about the large number of other coins that are not drawing competitive bids?
I try not to collect those or spend a significant sum doing so when I have.
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
But gold has been a good investment. Any gold, new old, slabbed or raw. Everyone should have bullion on hand, just in case.
Depends on your time frame. Gold has been flat for 12 years and negative for inflation adjusted value. If you go back to 1980, gold has lost money in inflation adjusted terms and has grossly under performed even savings bonds. You can find the occasional time frame where it did okay but generally gold has not been a good investment.
I think it is a little unfair to pick "1980" as the data point.
Here is a plot of the price of gold, adjusted for CPI (inflation). A horizontal flat-line would indicate that gold exactly maintains purchasing power (keeps pace with inflation). Of course, it is not a flat-line. But a generally ascending line would indicate that gold beats inflation, while a generally descending line would indicate that gold fails to maintain purchasing power.
I didn't pick 1980. I pointed out that you could find time frames like 1980 that are horrible.
As for the graph, it is not a generally ascending line, as you claim. It is fast more complex. You could also see a flat line with 3 transient peaks. We'll see if we had back to the long term trend or not.
However, even if you consider the current peak, you've got a 600% return on gold since 1950. That works out to about a 2.5% annual real rate of return. For reference, the S&P inflation adjusted yield since 1950 is 7.3%
@coinbuf said:
Every bid I place is getting blown out of the water now just as it was that last few years, no slowdown that I can see.
@OAKSTAR said:
Through the roof inflation, interest rates, food and gas prices. When I'm finding more silver in my CRH'ing activities, tells me people are scraping the bottom of their piggy banks! Nonessential leisure activities and hobbies are probably put on the back burner.
All the data I have seen is showing rising consumer confidence and increased spending on travel and leisure activities. Every time I pass by a local restaurant the line is out the door even at lunch. There are some folks that are still getting squeezed for sure, but for the most part spending is on the rise maybe just not for coins at this time.
Good point, but what about the large number of other coins that are not drawing competitive bids?
You mean the widgets that hardly ever have drawn competitive bids?
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
But gold has been a good investment. Any gold, new old, slabbed or raw. Everyone should have bullion on hand, just in case.
Depends on your time frame. Gold has been flat for 12 years and negative for inflation adjusted value. If you go back to 1980, gold has lost money in inflation adjusted terms and has grossly under performed even savings bonds. You can find the occasional time frame where it did okay but generally gold has not been a good investment.
I think it is a little unfair to pick "1980" as the data point.
Here is a plot of the price of gold, adjusted for CPI (inflation). A horizontal flat-line would indicate that gold exactly maintains purchasing power (keeps pace with inflation). Of course, it is not a flat-line. But a generally ascending line would indicate that gold beats inflation, while a generally descending line would indicate that gold fails to maintain purchasing power.
I didn't pick 1980. I pointed out that you could find time frames like 1980 that are horrible.
As for the graph, it is not a generally ascending line, as you claim. It is fast more complex. You could also see a flat line with 3 transient peaks. We'll see if we had back to the long term trend or not.
However, even if you consider the current peak, you've got a 600% return on gold since 1950. That works out to about a 2.5% annual real rate of return. For reference, the S&P inflation adjusted yield since 1950 is 7.3%
.
I did not make any "claims" that the plot line was generally ascending. A viewer of the chart can decide that for themselves. I stated: "of course, it is not a flat-line".
One thing I infer from the chart: the price of gold has been more volatile since 1974 (when gold bullion ownership was no longer illegal for United States citizens).
PS:
There has not been a real stock market crash in quite some time. Is one overdue, or is the market too manipulated (controlled) for that to happen ?
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
But gold has been a good investment. Any gold, new old, slabbed or raw. Everyone should have bullion on hand, just in case.
Depends on your time frame. Gold has been flat for 12 years and negative for inflation adjusted value. If you go back to 1980, gold has lost money in inflation adjusted terms and has grossly under performed even savings bonds. You can find the occasional time frame where it did okay but generally gold has not been a good investment.
I think it is a little unfair to pick "1980" as the data point.
Here is a plot of the price of gold, adjusted for CPI (inflation). A horizontal flat-line would indicate that gold exactly maintains purchasing power (keeps pace with inflation). Of course, it is not a flat-line. But a generally ascending line would indicate that gold beats inflation, while a generally descending line would indicate that gold fails to maintain purchasing power.
I didn't pick 1980. I pointed out that you could find time frames like 1980 that are horrible.
As for the graph, it is not a generally ascending line, as you claim. It is fast more complex. You could also see a flat line with 3 transient peaks. We'll see if we had back to the long term trend or not.
However, even if you consider the current peak, you've got a 600% return on gold since 1950. That works out to about a 2.5% annual real rate of return. For reference, the S&P inflation adjusted yield since 1950 is 7.3%
.
I did not make any "claims" that the plot line was generally ascending. A viewer of the chart can decide that for themselves. I stated: "of course, it is not a flat-line".
One thing I infer from the chart: the price of gold has been more volatile since 1974 (when gold bullion ownership was no longer illegal for United States citizens).
PS:
There has not been a real stock market crash in quite some time. Is one overdue, or is the market too manipulated (controlled) for that to happen ?
.
Uhhh, what do you define as a crash? Down 32% during covid not enough for you? Or, in a much much bigger market than the stock market, how about the bond market down 21% peak to trough(last October) which is triple the prior worst drawdown in history and was significantly worse for savers and low risk investors than any event since the great depression?
I believe collectors are being much more choosy, I know I am. I'll wait for that right coin, close to the right price before pouncing; no rush.
Could be that many have filled the holes in sets and series and now looking for quality upgrades, which are even more difficult to find as that ladder is climbed. Then there is the steeper price as you go up that ladder in a difficult economy.
I know dealers at the last coin show that I attended two weeks ago in Arlington TX were not budging much on price. One hundred dollars ($100), if at all, on coins priced at $3000 - $4000, which were above PCGS price guide even after subtracting the $100. This tells me the dealer (s) are confident they can get the price they are asking. Just waiting for that one buyer to come along. I get it.
There was a dealer there asking $1450 for a uncertified GSA hard pack1878-CC maybe a 63PL, but I could go right now to a website and buy a MS64 graded w/CAC for $300 more for a sure thing. I'll pay a little more for a sure thing. But he was confident that he'd get that price. It was still sitting in the case at end of show.
I believe people are buying gold,silver and collectible coins at a higher rate hedging against inflation that’s stealing their buying power while they can.
I myself am doing it.
My power bill just went up 50%.Can you believe they got away with that.Oh!Food and energy are not included in the inflation calculations.
It kinda makes you wonder are our coins really going up in value or is the dollar just losing value.When I was a small child in Elementary School I remember candy bars for 5 cents and a soda for 10cents.Also,I remember gas at 35 cents a gallon.I’m 60 this year.
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
But gold has been a good investment. Any gold, new old, slabbed or raw. Everyone should have bullion on hand, just in case.
Depends on your time frame. Gold has been flat for 12 years and negative for inflation adjusted value. If you go back to 1980, gold has lost money in inflation adjusted terms and has grossly under performed even savings bonds. You can find the occasional time frame where it did okay but generally gold has not been a good investment.
I think it is a little unfair to pick "1980" as the data point.
Here is a plot of the price of gold, adjusted for CPI (inflation). A horizontal flat-line would indicate that gold exactly maintains purchasing power (keeps pace with inflation). Of course, it is not a flat-line. But a generally ascending line would indicate that gold beats inflation, while a generally descending line would indicate that gold fails to maintain purchasing power.
I didn't pick 1980. I pointed out that you could find time frames like 1980 that are horrible.
As for the graph, it is not a generally ascending line, as you claim. It is fast more complex. You could also see a flat line with 3 transient peaks. We'll see if we had back to the long term trend or not.
However, even if you consider the current peak, you've got a 600% return on gold since 1950. That works out to about a 2.5% annual real rate of return. For reference, the S&P inflation adjusted yield since 1950 is 7.3%
.
I did not make any "claims" that the plot line was generally ascending. A viewer of the chart can decide that for themselves. I stated: "of course, it is not a flat-line".
One thing I infer from the chart: the price of gold has been more volatile since 1974 (when gold bullion ownership was no longer illegal for United States citizens).
PS:
There has not been a real stock market crash in quite some time. Is one overdue, or is the market too manipulated (controlled) for that to happen ?
.
Fair enough.
There doesn't ever have to be a market crash. Flat returns for a period of time will also bleed off excesses.
If you don't call 2008 and 2009 a real crash, what is? Then you have a huge pull back in 2019. How many crashes do you need in 20 years?
World Coins such super deal vs. US coins. I buy a lot of quality low single digit pop world coins. Many are top pop. I do have some US but mainly these are generic type pieces. The 1883 and 1923 us coins picked up some bc of Yellowstone ranch show.
Am also in the currency arena. Many are graded. Many top pop high grade issues there too.
When I can buy a low pop quality coin or note (scarce to pop top) world vs what a US generic trades for works for me. It’s more fun having the only one in the bourse room for most part.
I was really upset to see a supposed CACG PF 70 $50 AGE for $3000 more than a PCGS piece same grade. Was furious! When I saw it some presale thing I cooled down. I WILL NOT pay more than PCGS CF based money for mods! And mean this with a vengeance after seeing that.
As far as the US Market it’s a tough call - I just refer to PCGS 3000. It’s easier buy coins than sell them with positive P/L. More of a early 20th century type in that area. Love Classic Commems.
@VegasDan said:
... Food and energy are not included in the inflation calculations.
This is not true. They are definitely a part of the CPI (Consumer Price Index).
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W). BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups (food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services). Included within these major groups are various government-charged user fees, such as water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, and vehicle tolls.
The Consumer Price Index for household energy is a component of the fuels and utilities index, which is in the housing major group of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The household energy index measures the price movement of residential energy items used for heating, cooling, lighting, cooking, and other appliances and household equipment. Together with the index for motor fuels, it makes up the special index for energy.
@Walkerfan said:
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I'm not sure if that's just a poorly constructed sentence or a misunderstanding of the US economy. Inflation is somewhat high right now but it's falling and, except for the last 18 months, it was significantly below historical norms for the prior 15 years.
I think that you need to check out the consumer price index. Prices rise, every year, due to inflation, yet our dollars remain the same.
Okay, so it was a poorly constructed sentence.
BTW, I am a financial advisor and while I would have no problem if my clients choose to spend their discretionary income on coins or any other hobby or pastime I would absolutely not recommend it as an investment strategy. Coins pay no dividends, cannot grow earnings, and have no intrinsic value other than their bullion value. Other than that they're completely dependent on consumer demand. If you're lucky they keep up with inflation. But over the long run, mostly, they are poor investments. And if you think otherwise then go back to the '80s and talk to the people that owned Morgans and silver commemoratives and they're still underwater now 35 years later.
If I go back to the coins I bought in the 1970s and ‘80s, I did very well with the price appreciations. I have not done so well with the pieces I’ve bought in the last 15 years. There are exceptions, but for most part, I would be lucky to break even on the whole lot of them.
Pretty much all of them are “blue chips” with a very limited amount spent on modern material. If you are buying those, along with just about all of the commemorative coins, you are underwater.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
I have personally found the market very robust for the coins I am targeting. These are very eye appealing toned coins.
For run of the mill blast white coins in the AU through MS-65 range, then yes, I see a softer market. Coins I have weaned from my collection and list via auction (mostly in the AU category and white) have not performed up to guide. Almost all have been net losers compared to what I paid.
"Why waste time learning, when ignorance is instantaneous?"- Calvin and Hobbes
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Check out 1989 prices when you call it safe.
When you adjust for inflation, the 1989 high of $5,500 for a PCGS MS65 8TF Morgan is $13,489 in 2023 dollars.
...but it's inaccurate to use that graph because a 1989 MS65 is today's MS66 or MS67, but generally I agree coins are a bad investment. Personally, I live in my car, eat ramen, and shower at the gym to buy coins, so I'm in the "eggs all in one basket" camp.
I now have FAR less "eye candy". Even the CAC stuff was a bit disappointing in auction when I recently "thinned."
Soooo.... with that gone, I now concentrate on darkside where I find it actually more "numismatically" significant.
.....Collecting exotic designs.
I do not trust the US "coin market" one lil bit.
Prices reflect nothing.
Add in the upcoming new grading "service" with the possibility of collectors thinking their PRESENT slabs are second rate now, and it further complicates the issue.
In US, all I look at now is tougher regular issue type
or PERSONAL historic interest.
Like California gold rush coins.
I'm happier and more interested with that sort of stuff than blazing full band, full head, gold sticker, hoopty coins.
Exception... commems. But only ones with designs I like.
We get this EVERY June. Yes, there is a Summer effect. There is also economic uncertainty, which can affect different parts of the market in both directions. Some hoard bullion. Some just accumulate tangible assets of various classes. We all get a different view based on what we are buying and/or selling.
In my experience, when a rarity hits the market, direct sales are fast and bids are strong. For instance, the last two 1797 9x7 Small Letters silver dollars on the market, that I have seen, practically evaporated. I got the first (PCGS XF Details) and knew there was no time to haggle on price. I tried the same on a straight-graded PCGS F12 (OGH and undergraded VF IMHO) but it was gone minutes before I saw it. I have bowed out of bidding on nice coins that were not needed and paid high retail prices for others.
There is stagnant inventory on the circuit. In truth, there always is. In this market, I have seen the list of hole fillers, that were not exactly the best fits and overpriced to me, end up being purchased by me anyway one or two at a time. The better stuff that could be coaxed out of strong hands was brought to market during this bull cycle and generally is now in stronger hands.
The market place is also different in this swing of the cycle than in earlier periods. Dealers are too often facing retail clients in the same buying space (auctions and online listings mostly). That leaves very little margin to make money on most coins. So targeting the better ones is key. That makes for competition when better coins and truly PQ ones make appearances.
This thing probably still has legs to go a few years, barring a major incident. Rare and PQ coins should continue to do fine and bullion too on the other side, as long as inflationary and global currency fears maintain inertia on it. Commodity collector coins and very stale inventory? Not so much. That's my 0.16 bits FWIW.
If that’s the case I’ll need to reassess where my coin interest should be. I’m not finding any bargains in my areas of interest. Prices continue to climb.
Have been getting some really good auction buys below bid (inventory now up to plan) but retail sales slow. Last show really slow. It reminds me of a shotgun effect where you hit some but miss a lot. A friend who sets up near me skipping upcoming show. A vest pocket trader friend heading to Cali - LA area shows plus some vacation.
Market should rebound in the fall - people will buy where they see value, have interest. However avoid material they see as overpriced pumped up by hype, oversell.
It's misleading to think Classic Commemoratives are still out of favor by looking only at price guides. A plain looking MS66 CAC 1935-S Boone PCGS Price Guide values it at $300. Sold yesterday at Heritage for $660.
It's misleading to think Classic Commemoratives are still out of favor by looking only at price guides. A plain looking MS66 CAC 1935-S Boone PCGS Price Guide values it at $300. Sold yesterday at Heritage for $660.
Interesting, but in theory the price guide should follow the actual past several sales.
If that's true, the occasional one high or low sale is not strong evidence of a trend.
It's misleading to think Classic Commemoratives are still out of favor by looking only at price guides. A plain looking MS66 CAC 1935-S Boone PCGS Price Guide values it at $300. Sold yesterday at Heritage for $660.
Interesting, but in theory the price guide should follow the actual past several sales.
If that's true, the occasional one high or low sale is not strong evidence of a trend.
Interesting that in the same auction the 1935 MS66 Boone went for $780 and the 1935-D MS65 also $780. These are $280 coins. Must be the OGH or possibly the CAC?
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
But gold has been a good investment. Any gold, new old, slabbed or raw. Everyone should have bullion on hand, just in case.
Depends on your time frame. Gold has been flat for 12 years and negative for inflation adjusted value. If you go back to 1980, gold has lost money in inflation adjusted terms and has grossly under performed even savings bonds. You can find the occasional time frame where it did okay but generally gold has not been a good investment.
I think it is a little unfair to pick "1980" as the data point.
Here is a plot of the price of gold, adjusted for CPI (inflation). A horizontal flat-line would indicate that gold exactly maintains purchasing power (keeps pace with inflation). Of course, it is not a flat-line. But a generally ascending line would indicate that gold beats inflation, while a generally descending line would indicate that gold fails to maintain purchasing power.
Graphs are only as good as the time horizon you choose. For the last ten years, it’s been flat.
Looks as strong as ever to me. Every coin that I win at auction is higher than I expected to pay but still worth it. I am glad the market is strong and hope it continues that way.
There might be some softening for run of the mill material, but I had to pay strong money for an 1824 half dollar in MS-64+ that was “all there” in an NGC holder. I also paid close to my maximum for an MS-61 graded William the Conqueror penny.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@VegasDan said:
... Food and energy are not included in the inflation calculations.
This is not true. They are definitely a part of the CPI (Consumer Price Index).
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W). BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups (food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services). Included within these major groups are various government-charged user fees, such as water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, and vehicle tolls.
The Consumer Price Index for household energy is a component of the fuels and utilities index, which is in the housing major group of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The household energy index measures the price movement of residential energy items used for heating, cooling, lighting, cooking, and other appliances and household equipment. Together with the index for motor fuels, it makes up the special index for energy.
@VegasDan said:
... Food and energy are not included in the inflation calculations.
This is not true. They are definitely a part of the CPI (Consumer Price Index).
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W). BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups (food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services). Included within these major groups are various government-charged user fees, such as water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, and vehicle tolls.
The Consumer Price Index for household energy is a component of the fuels and utilities index, which is in the housing major group of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The household energy index measures the price movement of residential energy items used for heating, cooling, lighting, cooking, and other appliances and household equipment. Together with the index for motor fuels, it makes up the special index for energy.
@VegasDan said:
... Food and energy are not included in the inflation calculations.
This is not true. They are definitely a part of the CPI (Consumer Price Index).
The CPI represents all goods and services purchased for consumption by the reference population (U or W). BLS has classified all expenditure items into more than 200 categories, arranged into eight major groups (food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services). Included within these major groups are various government-charged user fees, such as water and sewerage charges, auto registration fees, and vehicle tolls.
The Consumer Price Index for household energy is a component of the fuels and utilities index, which is in the housing major group of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The household energy index measures the price movement of residential energy items used for heating, cooling, lighting, cooking, and other appliances and household equipment. Together with the index for motor fuels, it makes up the special index for energy.
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
I'm not saying that it should be the majority, of your net worth, but any financial advisor would have no problem with a reasonable percentage. Along with real estate, mutual funds, etc. Diversification is key.
Okay.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
I'm not saying that it should be the majority, of your net worth, but any financial advisor would have no problem with a reasonable percentage. Along with real estate, mutual funds, etc. Diversification is key.
Okay.
Why are you bumping this thread and quoting the same quote with the same simplistic response that you gave a month ago?
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
I'm not saying that it should be the majority, of your net worth, but any financial advisor would have no problem with a reasonable percentage. Along with real estate, mutual funds, etc. Diversification is key.
Okay.
Why are you bumping this thread and quoting the same quote with the same simplistic response that you gave a month ago?
@Walkerfan said:
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
I'm not saying that it should be the majority, of your net worth, but any financial advisor would have no problem with a reasonable percentage. Along with real estate, mutual funds, etc. Diversification is key.
Okay.
Why are you bumping this thread and quoting the same quote with the same simplistic response that you gave a month ago?
I think there is a forum glitch. Several older threads have been bumped with the same repeated text.
Edited to add: Dan answered while I was apparently typing.
Just wanted to speak to the sentiment of "widgets" not moving.
In my FUN show thread I spoke to several dealers who said that holding inventory was very tough and were to dealers and buying "everything under $500" in one example. Another dealer I spoke with at length, bought 10s of thousands of dollars in coins all under that price point because they've been moving so fast. I found that interesting.
There was a dealer there asking $1450 for a uncertified GSA hard pack1878-CC maybe a 63PL, but I could go right now to a website and buy a MS64 graded w/CAC for $300 more for a sure thing. I'll pay a little more for a sure thing. But he was confident that he'd get that price. It was still sitting in the case at end of show.
Please sell me all your 1878-CC's graded MS-64 with CAC for $300. I'll take all you can show me.
Comments
I try not to collect those or spend a significant sum doing so when I have.
I didn't pick 1980. I pointed out that you could find time frames like 1980 that are horrible.
As for the graph, it is not a generally ascending line, as you claim. It is fast more complex. You could also see a flat line with 3 transient peaks. We'll see if we had back to the long term trend or not.
However, even if you consider the current peak, you've got a 600% return on gold since 1950. That works out to about a 2.5% annual real rate of return. For reference, the S&P inflation adjusted yield since 1950 is 7.3%
You mean the widgets that hardly ever have drawn competitive bids?
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I did not make any "claims" that the plot line was generally ascending. A viewer of the chart can decide that for themselves. I stated: "of course, it is not a flat-line".
One thing I infer from the chart: the price of gold has been more volatile since 1974 (when gold bullion ownership was no longer illegal for United States citizens).
PS:
There has not been a real stock market crash in quite some time. Is one overdue, or is the market too manipulated (controlled) for that to happen ?
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The timeframe of the OP appears to be within the last year. If we look at the PCGS 3000 index... looks pretty healthy to me.
Edited: After I posted I notice the graph ends in 2022. But using the data on our host's page, we're up 3.5% in the past 11 months.
Uhhh, what do you define as a crash? Down 32% during covid not enough for you? Or, in a much much bigger market than the stock market, how about the bond market down 21% peak to trough(last October) which is triple the prior worst drawdown in history and was significantly worse for savers and low risk investors than any event since the great depression?
Chopmarked Trade Dollar Registry Set --- US Gold Showcase --- World Gold Showcase --- World Chopmark Showcase
I believe collectors are being much more choosy, I know I am. I'll wait for that right coin, close to the right price before pouncing; no rush.
Could be that many have filled the holes in sets and series and now looking for quality upgrades, which are even more difficult to find as that ladder is climbed. Then there is the steeper price as you go up that ladder in a difficult economy.
I know dealers at the last coin show that I attended two weeks ago in Arlington TX were not budging much on price. One hundred dollars ($100), if at all, on coins priced at $3000 - $4000, which were above PCGS price guide even after subtracting the $100. This tells me the dealer (s) are confident they can get the price they are asking. Just waiting for that one buyer to come along. I get it.
There was a dealer there asking $1450 for a uncertified GSA hard pack1878-CC maybe a 63PL, but I could go right now to a website and buy a MS64 graded w/CAC for $300 more for a sure thing. I'll pay a little more for a sure thing. But he was confident that he'd get that price. It was still sitting in the case at end of show.
USAF (Ret.) 1985 - 2005. E-4B Aircraft Maintenance Crew Chief and Contracting Officer.
My current Registry sets:
✓ Everyman Mint State Carson City Morgan Dollars (1878 – 1893)
✓ Everyman Mint State Lincoln Cents (1909 – 1958)
✓ Morgan Dollar GSA Hoard (1878 – 1891)
I believe people are buying gold,silver and collectible coins at a higher rate hedging against inflation that’s stealing their buying power while they can.
I myself am doing it.
My power bill just went up 50%.Can you believe they got away with that.Oh!Food and energy are not included in the inflation calculations.
It kinda makes you wonder are our coins really going up in value or is the dollar just losing value.When I was a small child in Elementary School I remember candy bars for 5 cents and a soda for 10cents.Also,I remember gas at 35 cents a gallon.I’m 60 this year.
Fair enough.
There doesn't ever have to be a market crash. Flat returns for a period of time will also bleed off excesses.
If you don't call 2008 and 2009 a real crash, what is? Then you have a huge pull back in 2019. How many crashes do you need in 20 years?
P.S. Aren't we due for a gold crash, then?
World Coins such super deal vs. US coins. I buy a lot of quality low single digit pop world coins. Many are top pop. I do have some US but mainly these are generic type pieces. The 1883 and 1923 us coins picked up some bc of Yellowstone ranch show.
Am also in the currency arena. Many are graded. Many top pop high grade issues there too.
When I can buy a low pop quality coin or note (scarce to pop top) world vs what a US generic trades for works for me. It’s more fun having the only one in the bourse room for most part.
I was really upset to see a supposed CACG PF 70 $50 AGE for $3000 more than a PCGS piece same grade. Was furious! When I saw it some presale thing I cooled down. I WILL NOT pay more than PCGS CF based money for mods! And mean this with a vengeance after seeing that.
As far as the US Market it’s a tough call - I just refer to PCGS 3000. It’s easier buy coins than sell them with positive P/L. More of a early 20th century type in that area. Love Classic Commems.
This is not true. They are definitely a part of the CPI (Consumer Price Index).
from
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm#Question_7
from
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/household-energy.htm
If I go back to the coins I bought in the 1970s and ‘80s, I did very well with the price appreciations. I have not done so well with the pieces I’ve bought in the last 15 years. There are exceptions, but for most part, I would be lucky to break even on the whole lot of them.
Pretty much all of them are “blue chips” with a very limited amount spent on modern material. If you are buying those, along with just about all of the commemorative coins, you are underwater.
opportunity knocks LOUD
I have personally found the market very robust for the coins I am targeting. These are very eye appealing toned coins.
For run of the mill blast white coins in the AU through MS-65 range, then yes, I see a softer market. Coins I have weaned from my collection and list via auction (mostly in the AU category and white) have not performed up to guide. Almost all have been net losers compared to what I paid.
"Why waste time learning, when ignorance is instantaneous?"- Calvin and Hobbes
...but it's inaccurate to use that graph because a 1989 MS65 is today's MS66 or MS67, but generally I agree coins are a bad investment. Personally, I live in my car, eat ramen, and shower at the gym to buy coins, so I'm in the "eggs all in one basket" camp.
I wish it would go south again! The cool coin shows are always too far north for me.
I now have FAR less "eye candy". Even the CAC stuff was a bit disappointing in auction when I recently "thinned."
Soooo.... with that gone, I now concentrate on darkside where I find it actually more "numismatically" significant.
.....Collecting exotic designs.
I do not trust the US "coin market" one lil bit.
Prices reflect nothing.
Add in the upcoming new grading "service" with the possibility of collectors thinking their PRESENT slabs are second rate now, and it further complicates the issue.
In US, all I look at now is tougher regular issue type
or PERSONAL historic interest.
Like California gold rush coins.
I'm happier and more interested with that sort of stuff than blazing full band, full head, gold sticker, hoopty coins.
Exception... commems. But only ones with designs I like.
We get this EVERY June. Yes, there is a Summer effect. There is also economic uncertainty, which can affect different parts of the market in both directions. Some hoard bullion. Some just accumulate tangible assets of various classes. We all get a different view based on what we are buying and/or selling.
In my experience, when a rarity hits the market, direct sales are fast and bids are strong. For instance, the last two 1797 9x7 Small Letters silver dollars on the market, that I have seen, practically evaporated. I got the first (PCGS XF Details) and knew there was no time to haggle on price. I tried the same on a straight-graded PCGS F12 (OGH and undergraded VF IMHO) but it was gone minutes before I saw it. I have bowed out of bidding on nice coins that were not needed and paid high retail prices for others.
There is stagnant inventory on the circuit. In truth, there always is. In this market, I have seen the list of hole fillers, that were not exactly the best fits and overpriced to me, end up being purchased by me anyway one or two at a time. The better stuff that could be coaxed out of strong hands was brought to market during this bull cycle and generally is now in stronger hands.
The market place is also different in this swing of the cycle than in earlier periods. Dealers are too often facing retail clients in the same buying space (auctions and online listings mostly). That leaves very little margin to make money on most coins. So targeting the better ones is key. That makes for competition when better coins and truly PQ ones make appearances.
This thing probably still has legs to go a few years, barring a major incident. Rare and PQ coins should continue to do fine and bullion too on the other side, as long as inflationary and global currency fears maintain inertia on it. Commodity collector coins and very stale inventory? Not so much. That's my 0.16 bits FWIW.
If that’s the case I’ll need to reassess where my coin interest should be. I’m not finding any bargains in my areas of interest. Prices continue to climb.
- Bob -
"Central Valley" Roosevelts
MPL's - Lincolns of Color
I thought I read about this over the years and saw it talked about on TV shows but whatever!
Our coin (Hobby) is alive and well and always will be.
There's CPI and core CPI which excludes food and energy.
Have been getting some really good auction buys below bid (inventory now up to plan) but retail sales slow. Last show really slow. It reminds me of a shotgun effect where you hit some but miss a lot. A friend who sets up near me skipping upcoming show. A vest pocket trader friend heading to Cali - LA area shows plus some vacation.
Market should rebound in the fall - people will buy where they see value, have interest. However avoid material they see as overpriced pumped up by hype, oversell.
I must be liking the wrong stuff because I am having to battle on every auction to win.
The market must be slowing down as I've won several upgrades at great prices on great collections lately.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
It's misleading to think Classic Commemoratives are still out of favor by looking only at price guides. A plain looking MS66 CAC 1935-S Boone PCGS Price Guide values it at $300. Sold yesterday at Heritage for $660.
Maybe all the collector money is now pouring into the market for microscopic "errors" and "varieties"?
Interesting, but in theory the price guide should follow the actual past several sales.
If that's true, the occasional one high or low sale is not strong evidence of a trend.
For this coin, maybe someone wanted the OGH?
Or maybe they saw it as a potential upgrade?
(I don't have the experience to say if it's a likely upgrade).
https://coins.ha.com/itm/commemorative-silver/1935-s-50c-boone-ms66-pcgs-cac-pcgs-population-255-47-ngc-census-181-42-cdn-200-whsle-bid-for-ngc-pcgs-ms66-m/a/60324-52550.s
Summer doldrums are typical but people are always buying. And consider the 2020-22 pandemic bull market.
Interesting that in the same auction the 1935 MS66 Boone went for $780 and the 1935-D MS65 also $780. These are $280 coins. Must be the OGH or possibly the CAC?
Graphs are only as good as the time horizon you choose. For the last ten years, it’s been flat.
Looks as strong as ever to me. Every coin that I win at auction is higher than I expected to pay but still worth it. I am glad the market is strong and hope it continues that way.
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Me too, brother!
Finally won a DE I wanted but someone pushed me $2k more than I wanted to go. So in my area, it’s alive and well.😉
There might be some softening for run of the mill material, but I had to pay strong money for an 1824 half dollar in MS-64+ that was “all there” in an NGC holder. I also paid close to my maximum for an MS-61 graded William the Conqueror penny.
Still challenged finding what I'm looking for and acquiring it at a reasonable price when I do. Perhaps common material is soft, not a dealer.
I thought I read about this over the years and saw it talked about on TV shows but whatever!
I thought I read about this over the years and saw it talked about on TV shows but whatever!
I thought I read about this over the years and saw it talked about on TV shows but whatever!
Okay.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Why are you bumping this thread and quoting the same quote with the same simplistic response that you gave a month ago?
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I think its a bug
Type Collector of U.S. Pre-33 Gold https://instagram.com/deplorable_dan Successful transactions with- @drfish, @Cladiator, @johnny010, @Pedzola, @PerryHall, @2windy2fish, @Ike1964, @JohnThePainter, @rpmsrpms, @REALGATOR
I think there is a forum glitch. Several older threads have been bumped with the same repeated text.
Edited to add: Dan answered while I was apparently typing.
Philippians 4:4-7
Thanks guys. My bad. Sorry, I wasn’t aware of that.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947)
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
You guys are so nice and polite, you're all the best !!
Just wanted to speak to the sentiment of "widgets" not moving.
In my FUN show thread I spoke to several dealers who said that holding inventory was very tough and were to dealers and buying "everything under $500" in one example. Another dealer I spoke with at length, bought 10s of thousands of dollars in coins all under that price point because they've been moving so fast. I found that interesting.
BHNC #248 … 108 and counting.
If I can find anything that I need I have to pay over PCGS price guide every time.
In 1983 I started doing "coins as a career". Full time since 1988. Still standing.
And one of our best gold/silver buyers is a financial advisor who advises his clients to diversify. Just saying.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
OP, it’s just you that is going south. The coin market is just fine. 😀
Please sell me all your 1878-CC's graded MS-64 with CAC for $300. I'll take all you can show me.
Coin market going South?
IDK but after reading this thread, I am excited thinking about all the cheap DE's I'll be buying in the next 1 1/2 month.