Say! Is it me or is the coin market going south again?
Soldi
Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭✭✭
Thank you for your thoughts regarding say$500 to $5000 collectors coins
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Soldi
Posts: 2,177 ✭✭✭✭✭
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It's Summer time
Also, when people start looking at their 401K and other stock accounts again, they may be in more of a mood to buy
The coin market has no bottom. It is perpetually double-nuclear!
Through the roof inflation, interest rates, food and gas prices. When I'm finding more silver in my CRH'ing activities, tells me people are scraping the bottom of their piggy banks! Nonessential leisure activities and hobbies are probably put on the back burner.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
I would like to see some actual data. Collectibles in general have seemed a little softer to me this year, but I am not seeing any significant decrease in prices in my sectors.
Every bid I place is getting blown out of the water now just as it was that last few years, no slowdown that I can see.
All the data I have seen is showing rising consumer confidence and increased spending on travel and leisure activities. Every time I pass by a local restaurant the line is out the door even at lunch. There are some folks that are still getting squeezed for sure, but for the most part spending is on the rise maybe just not for coins at this time.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
It’s going south if not weak. Few people coming in the bourse room have over $300 to spend. We are in very uncertain times.
Additionally we are in the summer doldrums. Plus coins are in competition with other venues - travel, sporting events, gentleman’s clubs, Car mods, dating, boating, etc.
A friend who sets up near me at local shows has dropped his offers to walkup sellers from 10 pct behind CDN bid to 20pct behind bid.
Real 99 cent auctions on ebay seem to be working exceptionally well.
BIN's not so much.
That's very true. People are spending........................money they don't have. Do you know what the credit card debt is for the average American? People are still paying off credit card debt from 10 Christmas's ago! 😂 😉
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Again?
Things have been soft for a long time. Really nice high grade Mercury Dimes and Buffalo nickels tend to sell for a healthy fraction of PCGS price guide. I have seen price guide values adjusted up and I do not understand why that is happening. I am not talking about stand alone top pops but maybe within a full point of top pop. The price guide seems to be all types of crazy to me. A coin's price guide of $9250 with CAC sticker sells for $7K. I saw a $6K price guide coin sell for $3K. This happens over and over and over again....at auction, when coins start at $1.
Now, if you happen to be talking about monster toned examples with CAC stickers then you have a very different discussion. Or old holder craziness with CAC stickers same thing. Although,
I sold a bunch of really nice toned Roosevelts in 67+ and only a couple sold for more than price guide.
If you are just talking about really nice coins within a full grade or within 1.5 grades of top pop, sometimes with CAC stickers...yup, the market is soft. It has been this way for a long time, a couple of years now. You have to go by auction history 100% of the time. Price guides seem to be all types of broken.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
It's in record territory. Average household is carrying more than $10K in CC debt and in the US for the first time ever the total has surpassed $1.0 trillion. Ouch!
USAF (Ret.) 1985 - 2005. E-4B Aircraft Maintenance Crew Chief and Contracting Officer.
My current Registry sets:
✓ Everyman Mint State Carson City Morgan Dollars (1878 – 1893)
✓ Everyman Mint State Lincoln Cents (1909 – 1958)
✓ Morgan Dollar GSA Hoard (1878 – 1891)
I laugh when people call it a 'hobby' like it's knitting, whittling or collecting bottle caps. LOL
It is a safe investment just like blue chip stocks, expensive art or precious metals.
Much safer than simply holding paper money, imho. Especially, with the undeniably high inflation rate that continues to rise, annually.
I see steady prices and continued long term growth.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Gold seems to be holding up pretty well.
Really? If it's not a hobby for you what is it? If you're using coins and investment in the same sentence, you must be a dealer.
I'm just a hobbyist. If I used coins as a career or investment, I would have starved years ago! 😂
I've never had a financial advisor say; add coins to your portfolio.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
I'm not sure if that's just a poorly constructed sentence or a misunderstanding of the US economy. Inflation is somewhat high right now but it's falling and, except for the last 18 months, it was significantly below historical norms for the prior 15 years.
I don’t think it’s south for the super eye appealing coins. They almost never go cheap when I bid on them in auction
I'm not saying that it should be the majority, of your net worth, but any financial advisor would have no problem with a reasonable percentage. Along with real estate, mutual funds, etc. Diversification is key.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
it almost seems like a bifurcated market .. the cream is still going up.
I think that you need to check out the consumer price index. Prices rise, every year, due to inflation, yet our dollars remain the same.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Okay, so it was a poorly constructed sentence.
BTW, I am a financial advisor and while I would have no problem if my clients choose to spend their discretionary income on coins or any other hobby or pastime I would absolutely not recommend it as an investment strategy. Coins pay no dividends, cannot grow earnings, and have no intrinsic value other than their bullion value. Other than that they're completely dependent on consumer demand. If you're lucky they keep up with inflation. But over the long run, mostly, they are poor investments. And if you think otherwise then go back to the '80s and talk to the people that owned Morgans and silver commemoratives and they're still underwater now 35 years later.
BTW-I have an intimate knowledge of the US economy and I am a successful businessman and financier. I agree with most of what you've said. But, I must add that coins, in the top end of the market, tend to do well. Generic Morgans....not so much.... D. Brent and Mack Pogue started investing, in the 1980s, as a sort of 'hedge fund', and look how well they did. Again, diversification is key. I would never put all of my eggs in one basket (meaning just coins and no other investments).
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I think it’s definitely going south from what I have seen at shows. Guy that sets up near me says it’s been hit and miss for him. Have cut back on buying unless really super deal. There was a France super low pop silver coin saw for ages at GC - PCGS66 - a gorgeous gem 💎 min bid abt $75. finally bought it (no bid competition) and marked it up accordingly. It’s abt a $175 coin. I see US Classic as being too expensive at this point. I bought some Pcgs / NGC 1923 and 1883-O $ in 63 and 64 off GC because of the Montana Ranch show. Already retailed one. What’s amazing is what slabbed Mexico silver Libertads bringing. I think many US investors simply priced out or bored so going to other areas. This year made more on currency. Do you think certain US coin market areas manipulated? Am chasing some US key dates like US 34-s Peace $ but deal gotta be there.
Okay.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Thank you! Nuff said.
Disclaimer: I'm not a dealer, trader, grader, investor or professional numismatist. I'm just a hobbyist. (To protect me but mostly you! 🤣 )
Considering coins don’t pay interest or pay dividends I can’t seriously call them an investment. The PCGS 3000 has not exactly recovered from the market crash of 1989. However historically better dates performed more positively.
Friends have sold out coins for other interests many sports or entertainment related.
"...it's all a gamble when it's just a game..."
I have not observed a noticeable decline in the segment of the market that I participate in, though I’m strictly gold and tend to fall beyond the value parameters in the op. I can’t speak to other segments of the market, but I have yet to feel like I got a great deal when I’m bidding on anything that I want.
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Check out 1989 prices when you call it safe.
When you adjust for inflation, the 1989 high of $5,500 for a PCGS MS65 8TF Morgan is $13,489 in 2023 dollars.
Definitely softness. Not sure if it's summertime slowdown or an actual deflationary phase hitting. Guess we'll know in a couple months.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Even if I put in a very high bid, I still get outbid.
Two points...In the whatever it's worth category...
1)Bought a few non gold coins 10 + years ago. We are not ahead on any of those coins.
2)We mainly collect DE's. Usually sell about 3/month. Sold 8 in the past month (3 to people who never bought a coin before. We are still contemplating whether to raise our prices or close the E-Bay store? We are finding it very difficult to buy anything for resale that makes sense to us.
That's one coin.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000
If you adjust the 3000 for inflation, you just about break even which is an absolutely horrible "investment ". The inflation adjusted risk reform of the S&P 500 during that time is 985%
But gold has been a good investment. Any gold, new old, slabbed or raw. Everyone should have bullion on hand, just in case.
"I spent 50% of my money on alcohol, women, and gambling. The other half I wasted.
I’m not sure what you’re looking at. The PCGS 3000 is down $108,864 from its high in 1989, or -60.12%. That means if you bought in at the high in 1989 and sat on it, you’d have lost $267,003 in 2023 dollars.
Try starting in 1970 and ending now and you should get the result that @jmlanzaf described.
Cherry picking starting and ending points after you see all the actual data is not the way investment is done in the real world.
I could make it look great or even worse by picking such points, but it does not prove anything.
I think many if not most of us know that the spike in 1989 was due to outside investment funds promoting portfolios of slabbed coins that had low current populations. When more coins were slabbed and the populations increased, people started to realize it was a bubble and got back out.
I agree with most people that the S&P 500 is a much better investment than coins. It increases with things like economic growth, technological innovation and population. Like has been said, coin values depend on demand from collectors, which grow with wealth in the high end coins but depend on the number of collectors for the middle and low end.
Compared to the last few years, there is a slight softening on prices overall. Like many have mentioned, it really is specific to what segment of the market we're talking about. I think you have to expect this coming off the bull market we had for 2 years or so. Heading South, maybe a bit overstated, softening (summer or economy?) we'll see, price adjustments after some good markets - to me, that's more the case.
Depends on your time frame. Gold has been flat for 12 years and negative for inflation adjusted value. If you go back to 1980, gold has lost money in inflation adjusted terms and has grossly under performed even savings bonds. You can find the occasional time frame where it did okay but generally gold has not been a good investment.
Yes, that's correct. I was trying to ignore the peak itself as it was short lived. But your point just amplifies what I was trying to say. I love coins, but people tend to make investment claims based on emotion not data. It's not that there aren't winners along the way, either specific coins or specific time frames, but the general market isn't really investment material.
And, honestly, by the nature of coins they can't outpace GDP growth so the best they could ever hope to do is match the S&P 500.
I agree that coins are generally not as good a long term investment as equities. And I’m sure you would agree that it makes sense for some people to hold some gold as a hedge against inflation, etc. So to me, the question isn’t so much if rare coins are a good investment, but if they’re a better hedge than gold. And in the long run, I think they are.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Honest question: in modern times, has there ever been a time when the gold price inflated more than the stock market? The late 1970s for a couple of years maybe?
In an inflationary environment, won't the stock market tend to inflate as much as gold? Look at the last 2 years, for example.
The only time gold seems to outstrip the markets is during geopolitical trouble. That also tends to be short lived.
[Side note: I'm all for buying coins. Or gold. But the rationalizations for it always seem strained.]
Try the Facebook group I moderate, its only pre 33 gold and there are plenty of double eagles to be had near wholesale prices. Send me a pm and I can invite you.
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Holding a little silver as a bet on the ingenuity and resourcefulness of man is a good idea as well. As long as you're going to hold a little anyway you might as well hold some with numismatic potential.
Coin collecting is a lot of fun, too.
I like this response "It's Summertime" my opinion on that is this; Once the market transverses all series it begins to drop. I love it when I go to a show or B&M and hear "Dollars have come down you know" . South is where it's going. South. Then of course I am much like an economist "On the other hand"
Thank you guys for the incite and fine discourse Regards,, Michael
Pretty firm bids remain for silver and gold.
I see zero great coins for sale...and everytime something nice shows up at auction, it is invariably strong. If that is a weak market, then I would hate to see a strong market!
South is where my buy signals are. Say it is so !
This^^^
I'm of the opinion that the vast majority of great coins are in strong hands. What I see are the same old stale coins sitting in someone's inventory or on eBay, at unrealistic prices. Great coins still commanding record prices if and when they do come across the auction block. I think many people have been awaiting the markets reception to CACG as well, and trying not to sell the best CAC approved coins in the meantime.
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I think it is a little unfair to pick "1980" as the data point.
Here is a plot of the price of gold, adjusted for CPI (inflation). A horizontal flat-line would indicate that gold exactly maintains purchasing power (keeps pace with inflation). Of course, it is not a flat-line. But a generally ascending line would indicate that gold beats inflation, while a generally descending line would indicate that gold fails to maintain purchasing power.
Good point, but what about the large number of other coins that are not drawing competitive bids?