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How would you handle this market crash?
Cougar1978
Posts: 7,645 ✭✭✭✭✭
The market has crashed (numismatic value wise) for US Classic Coins and non bullion material due to a world event (possibility a major military defeat or loss of face) and uncertainty, instability in financial markets over a period of weeks. Pretty much well 40-50 pct across the board. Generic dollars bid at $50 MS63, $75 MS64, S100 MS65. However bullion has come up around 15 pct. Bankruptcy may be on horizon for many numismatic firms.
So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
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I wished things I buy were 40-50% off!
Buy more generic Saints now, in case the OP is clairvoyant.
End Systemic Elitism - It Takes All Of Us
Did anyone else observe a numismatic market crash? I didn’t think so.
CN eBay
All of my collection is in a safe deposit box!
OP is proposing a "what if" scenario. He should probably clarify.
Give Me Liberty or Give Me Debt
Coins aren’t an investment for me. I would pick up some of the lower priced coins and be very happy with the lower prices.
My current registry sets:
20th Century Type Set
Virtual DANSCO 7070
Slabbed IHC set - Missing the Anacs Slabbed coins
🤔I have NOT noticed any dip in the numismatic market ….. if anything I have a long list of what should’ve been acquired before the “crash”?
and as far as the Bear; I would just ride it 😬🤣😉
Time to loose some lbs?
?
A lot of nice stuff would come off the market. I’d just keep buying my widgets and be happy some were cheaper.
If that were to happen, I would use it as a buying opportunity to pick up coins that would give me pleasure, that previously I could not afford!
Steve
My collecting “Pride & Joy” is my PCGS Registry Dansco 7070 Set:
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/type-sets/design-type-sets/complete-dansco-7070-modified-type-set-1796-date/publishedset/213996
Just My Imagination (Running Away With Me)
https://youtube.com/watch?v=2YNufnS_kf4 - Mama I'm coming home ...................................................................................................................................................................... RLJ 1958 - 2023
Obviously the OP is a hypothetical situation - though certainly not out of the realm of possible scenarios. Since I am not a dealer, I would be OK coin wise. And stackers would have real time justification for their diligence. Cheers, RickO
I always viewed my higher end/rarer numismatic coins as insurance against my bullion. If the time came when I wanted to sell my bullion and for whatever reason I couldn’t I feel there are always buyers for higher end numismatics (like art). A simplified example is a 1916d Mercury dime that is worth $3,000- now should still be worth $3,000- plus/minus in the future.
If the op is correct and since this is a hobby for me, I think I would have fun and go on a buying spree unless all my a available liquid assets went to zero. In that case we have much bigger problems.
I know many people that disagree with my logic, which is fine, but my collection is a small part of my assets so it works for me which is want counts. 🙂
I disagree about the 16D dime, although I agree with the rest of it.
Coins only go up in value. You know this is true because you just read this on the internet.
Bullion up 15% is no big deal, it’d still be below where it was earlier this year.
But I digress….prices down ~50% across the board? I’d buy a Chain cent so fast your head would spin, along with probably a few other classic pieces.
They may not “always go up”, but they always recover. Prices are higher now than they were following every major war, insurrection, recession, depression, terrorist attack, etc over the past 150 years. I’m betting that continues.
I shudder to think I would have to use one of my sweet Barber Halves to buy a loaf of bread....but that is in the realm of possible. Just start culling from the bottom and hope you don't get to your most prized coin.
What I think many folks don't consider...if there was a major world conflict that destroyed the world economy....fiat money, stocks, bonds, etc. would be worthless.
I'd buy the dip and either take profits after the recovery or just enjoy my acquisitions. Probably a little bit of both.
Good luck finding one. I think most quality rare coins would go into hiding until prices recovered. This hypothetical scenario is extremely unlikely considering the government's massive deficit spending and the resulting high inflation that it's generating.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
Agree 100%…..I was just playing along with the fantasy….
Think of 2007-8 and the effect on numismatics especially currency; it took a long time for recovery. Also 2020, hedge funds ended up buying PCGS and NGC, a rush to safety and the increase in collectibles value. The 1989 highs never recovered due to plenty of increasing supply. There is always a market for something, even in recessions.
How would you handle this market crash?
Don't tell anyone outside this forum, but... "Buy low, sell high..."
One man's loss is another man's gain. That's my pronoun and I'm sticking to it.
A hypothetical 40 to 50% "haircut" would ripple through the market for quite some time if it affected the market as a whole. Much of the good stuff probably wouldn't surface for a while, as most of that is not in "weak' hands. But over time it might become a generational buying opportunity ... and if I really thought I had a generation left, I would be a strong buyer for early federal in choice condition (AU+) at 1/3 or more off from today.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Buy, Buy, Buy !!!
If something like this actually happened, the last thing I'd be worried about if the price of generic dollars and the possible bankruptcy of numismatic firms. Sounds like a prepper scenario repeated ad nauseum since I was old enough to go to coin shows.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
Yes I was active before and after the 89 crash but did not do shows until 1990 after the crash. I liked the lower prices being able to afford nicer stuff. At that time working full time in Project Financial Controls, Cost Accounting.
At this time a crash like that not much impact as my investment in USA Classic material minimal due to its selling out 2020- present so regrouping in that area - most invested in world, mods, currency, bullion.
Currently recovering from full TKR rt knee done 8/02. Had left done in 2020. Plan setup at local show mid September. Wb looking for some Classic US slabbed coins.
Sheeeeeezzzz . . . OP, you put the fear of the Lord into me!! I thought the world had got to sh$! just during a 40 minute dogwalk and the last 9 months of acquiring keys in anticipation of an accelerating market just killed me !!!!!!
Ahhhhh . . . hypothetical! Well goody for YOU! I am sending my bill for heart medication direct to your house !!!!
Drunner
I would see it as a buying opportunity.
It would be a great opportunity to buy. Actually, this happened to many segments of "US Classic Coins" during 2017-2020. Early dollars were down, early gold, and 1794-1807 half dollars were down. Were you buying? I was buying heavily, more than 40 examples in those segments. In 2022, not so much as prices are now much higher.
Yes would see it as buying opportunity too. It’s all relative we can’t change the non controllable. Losses decrease my tax bill.
Coug . . . rereading, I guess it was more my fault.
And the best benefit . . . . . my heartrate is declining every minute . . . . . .
Drunner
Drunner - sorry- don’t worry about something that has not happened or non controllable.
Me I would sell at whatever take move it, enjoy the lower prices if buying.
I would buy keys like a piano maker, key dates that is.
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistry/publishedset.aspx?s=142753
https://www.autismforums.com/media/albums/acrylic-colors-by-rocco.291/
More coins for less money spent? It would be time for a lot of fun.
Custom album maker and numismatic photographer, see my portfolio here: (http://www.donahuenumismatics.com/).
I’d strategically buy gold dollars if I’m able and can find good bargains.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
That’s why I use the 50/50 rule. 50% coins, 50% bullion. Hang onto the coins until things get better (if they do) and use bullion to ride it out.
I have a decent percent of my net worth (10% , mainly DE's, gold bullion coins) in coins/physical. With that said, If the financial markets became unglued for a few weeks... I wouldn't be focusing my time on coins/gold. I suspect that there might be better value elsewhere?
For my self, I would like it so i could pick up some major rarities at half the price. Lots of cool stuff coming up for sale the next months, several coins are way out of my price range, a 50% haircut, might could get a few.
as far as coin business, I never keep that much inventory on hand, I move it constantly, so it would have little affect on me. Id Just keep buying on the way down and keep it moving.
There is an awful lot of good stuff coming up for sale, will be intrested in seeing how well its all absorbed in market, which I think it will, but:
I am seeing some early signs of marginal , mediocre & everyday coins starting to stagnate. could be a sign of whats to come on that type stuff.