Overheard at a local coin show...
Pedzola
Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭✭✭
I was walking around a local coin show yesterday and overheard a comment from a dealer that was something like this, my paraphrasing:
"I won't deal with PCGS anymore because it takes too long."
The dealer has many nice high-end coins, someone who has been in business for a long time. I was surprised to hear that.
Time is always a factor. The wait seems like a pretty common topic around here for collectors. But it must be brutal for dealers, where timing can be critical in fast moving markets, and who have money tied up and untouchable through that long wait.
If PCGS had an East Coast satellite office it would reduce shipping time / risk for ~half of submitters and speed overall processing at both sites by increasing capacity.
I'm sure you all will let me know why this is a bad idea. Thoughts?
Comments
Most dealers carry insurance that enables them to ship with FedEx or Express mail, so shipping can be reduced to a day in each direction. Capacity at PCGS is the limiting factor. A satellite office or just more staff at their current office will have the same effect on turnaround times, but because they have a need for people with a very specific skill set, they can just go and hire a bunch more graders whenever they need them. However they ramp up capacity, it won’t be quick. It can’t be.
The dealer doesn’t have a lot of choices and people don’t always follow through with what they say they’re going (or not going) to do.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
As @airplanenut noted, the position requires specific skills and experience, not found in the general population. Tough to expand capacity with a skills limiting requirement. A business can always increase floor space, finding qualified employees is more difficult. This is not like hiring engineers that colleges turn out annually. Cheers, RickO
Empty words. He/she was simply venting frustration.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I agree with all of the sentiment expressed here. I completely understand the delay. What irritates me is that the published turn around times are often horribly inaccurate. When 40 days becomes 50 days and hasn't been fulfilled even after 75 days somethings wrong. The online submission status tracking bar is often different than what customer service sees. Often a submission phase which apparently should take 2 or 3 days hasn't been completed after a week. Something is wrong. The delay is real, and the explanations are reasonable.
To me, management communication is more of an issue.
(l8-)>>
It's not that hard to hire graders or other competent numismatists, it really isn't. There's plenty of folks out there that can grade well, and do other numismatic duties well.
The problem is hiring graders on their budgets. I've gotten offers for grading positions with the big TPGs. They aren't good enough, I make more flipping on my own adjusted for my local costs of living, let alone adding the costs of relocation. They need 20-somethings with no attachments that haven't built their flipping up to a level where they are making a good living yet, or 30-40 somethings looking for a clean start away from all attachments, unless they already live in these expensive areas. The problem is you cannot replace that 10-15 years buying/grading/selling experience guys like myself have. Go ahead and look at the costs of housing a family (3 bed, 1.5 bath, 1500sqft+) in Sarasota and Orange County. Sarasota, a decent house will run you $400k+ in a nice area. OC? $900k+. I'd know, I've looked deeply into both.
While I won't disclose what I was offered, I will say this; I have never broken 6 figures profit flipping coins (not my day job) and my location is in the suburbs of a moderately expensive NE city, 75-80% benchmark on Numbeo.
At the end of the day, the TPG's are risk adverse in their hiring practices, and while I get that, they're doing nothing but shooting themselves in the foot by being so conservative. Best of luck to them, I don't think I'll ever work for 'em.
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Hold on a sec... not every engineer turned out annually is perfect. But some of us are
I don't disagree, but perhaps my point wasn't made quite the right way. There are plenty of qualified people out there, but PCGS can't just add them to their team for the reasons you mentioned, and I'm sure others, as well. Put a different way, there are some jobs where if you advertise them, there are lots of qualified candidates who are available and interested. Coin grading is already looking at a much smaller talent pool than many fields, and the grading companies can't just go out and hire whenever they please as other businesses can.
Of course, what I don't know is how much more money PCGS would have to throw at a candidate (or many candidates) to get them to take and stay at the job, and what that would do to the business overall. I imagine PCGS makes enough money that improving efficiency for a few hundred thousand dollars wouldn't kill them. But if net they required millions more in salary, it may be too much (whether they can't afford it or perceive that it's not a good business idea is a separate question).
@airplanenut .... Yes indeed.... I had 43 engineers in my departments, and over the years, many more. Some are more talented than others....
Cheers, RickO
It is better to have slower turn around times than going out to hire individuals just to get waiting times down. It could damage their reputation and overall PCGS product if they hire the wrong people. Coin grading takes a particular skill set.
Positive BST as a seller: Namvet69, Lordmarcovan, Bigjpst, Soldi, mustanggt, CoinHoader, moursund, SufinxHi, al410, JWP
I am extremely happy where my business is and I can certainly grade most coins and authenticate error coins.
Any TPG company would have to throw a huge pile of cash at me to even think about changing my extremely happy lifestyle
I think being a professional grader is a lot more enjoyable in theory than in practice. Can you imagine grading 500-1000 coins a day, every day, for 6 months....or a year...or 10 years. What a grind! I don't think I could do it even though I think I have the skills. I just don't think I could do it unless I was paid a ton of money and maybe even if I was paid a ton of money.
Tom
You don't think there would be enjoyment in having Monster Boxes of 2022 Silver Eagles placed in front of you hour after hour and you got to decide MS68/69/70. What a way to make a living.
Successful BST with BustDMs , Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino (CBH's - 35 Die Marriage's)
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
** I think being a professional grader is a lot more enjoyable in theory than in practice. **
For sure. Especially when you likely start with Moderns, etc.
Probably a LONG time before they let you handle the cool coins, like Reconsideration of 1804 dollars, and crossing over 1913 Liberty nickels lol!
Are the TPG working overtime? If they aren’t they should, might be the only way they will dig out of the backlog!
I am sure I will catch some crap on this, but it really isn’t any different than any other repetitive manufacturing industry. Sure they have a skill not easily duplicated but there are lots of jobs like that. Somebody has to do them, I never was one being an engineer and manager.
I'm curious. How does the turnaround time at NGC compare currently with PCGS?
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
I'd enjoy the moderns. I can quickly script up a random number generator that throws out 70, 69, and on rare occasion a 68 way before lunch.
This definitely comes into play. You've gotta have a feel for it, and you've gotta have goals. Grading all day with no personal goals is probably a HUGE drag. Most graders I know want to put in a few years, really hone their skills and get to finalizer level or near finalizer level, then move elsewhere for more fun work. Some stick around longer-term, but the younger guys usually move along if they don't get promoted or get big raises... But if they're good, they do often get big raises.
Newbies deal with that stuff. IE the spots I was offered didn't include grading moderns or any of that. I may have swung over to help out from time to time when my focus was slow, but the bulk (99%+) of the time I'd be doing classic US stuff.
Again, depends on your skill level. I know guys that have walked in and handled that kinda stuff pretty quickly. When something like that comes in, usually everybody will get a look at it. It's a perk of the job, as well as a learning opportunity.
Can't work graders overtime too much, their eyes will get tired and mistakes will get made. Not to mention that asking them to work overtime when they are salary is gonna potentially cause turnover to jump, which will just compound your issues, if you're a TPG.
NGC turned my last Standard sub around in about 1 calendar month. PCGS received my last Regular sub on 12/27 and it's still in the grading queue... Just refreshed, yep, still in grading.
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
That’s a very fair point. Many jobs even outside manufacturing are repetitive.
Given the situation with the labor market and a smaller potential applicant pool for grading, computer grading might finally have to take some of the load. @airplanenut made a funny joke but something like monster boxes of Eagles (and other bulk moderns) would be the perfect segment to turn over to the computers and leave the more unique coins to people.
In general, I think NGC's turnaround times are worse, and certainly no better, than PCGS's.
Tom
PCGS is way, way behind compared to NGC right now.
https://www.ngccoin.com/submit/services-fees/ngc/
https://www.pcgs.com/statistics
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
Cool coins should be placed at the front of the line. Moderns and bullion at the back.
I guess you are correct. I had been holding back on some tokens and world. World standard is still 50 days, and econ tokens are 38 days, but other times have improved, some greatly. Still, I'd rather wait.
Tom
NGC is very slow as well. As a collector I'm holding off sending in a number of raw items, reholders, etc. I can be patient and do expect timing to improve. I just don't like having my stuff out of my control for months at a time.
I'll take it
The money side of things is easily dealt with. I often gave salary people that put in extra efforts discretionary bonuses. The tired eyes are a different matter. Even if you had them come in on Saturdays for 5 hours will put a dent in the backlog, Managers/GM’s need to be creative and think outside the box! To do nothing is management not doing their jobs!
Another way to reduce the backlog it to increase their grading fees.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
It's true. When you become your own biggest competitor (due to backlog), you're probably not charging enough. The caveat is that what sings today may not sing tomorrow.
Smitten with DBLCs.
I have a major show soon and figured I would have my 20 coins back by now. It has been since January 26 when they got my coins. Also why waste the time of seasoned graders grading modern coins. Why not use AE Monster box and modern proof sets and just modern coins be graded by the rookies. As they, the rookies pass their test and become seasoned they can move into the seasoned positions... I agree maybe modern coins should be sent to a separate location on the East Coast. How about an additional management fee for timely grading ... $20.00, $50.00 or $100.00 extra to make a turn in 7 days.. And Mean it .. I would pay for this when sending in coins worth thousands instead of waiting 3-4 months is just crazy... The down side is the market is hot ! People are pleased to just have their coins graded. You see these comments now directed to our host but can you imagen what these comments would look like if the market turns and coins sent out 60 days ago were worth X are now dropping like crazy and you don't have your once valuable coin in your hand. to trade or sell... Card Grading is out a year so I guess we are better off then them.......!!!!
Most are far from it. And then there are some who are engineers AND coin graders
.> @Aotearoa said:
I agree to a point, But little guys like me submit alot of personal keepsakes, niche collectibles, or wishful shots in the dark. Often the value if a submission doesn't exceed the cost basis. If PCGS is cultivating a customer base within that population, then higher cost/faster service tiers will only work if low cost/slower service tiers are accurate. I don't mind waiting 2,3 4 months if that is what I'm paying for up front. Management has got to know the index of how many coins will fit in a given period of time. When submissions exceed that index, they should say so (that way I'll know to wait to make my next submission.).
(l8-)>>
A random thought:
Can coin graders be trained in 2-3 months and put to work? Or is the experience of many years in the coin business indispensable? Or do the TPGs “train” new graders in the moderns/bullion room (if so, I’m glad I don’t do moderns)?
I ask this because some luxury watch brands (e.g. Rolex, Omega) train their own watchmakers (also a specialized skill in short supply nowadays) and then obligate them under contract for a period of years to pay back their training.
There might be some young people that would like to do this in order to break into the coin business. Is this a model the TPGs could follow?
ANA LM
USAF Retired — 34 years of active military service! 🇺🇸
Robots.
They take shorter smoke breaks.
This is the downside to coin collecting being popular again. : )
I don't think any of us want to see grading fees increased. I wonder what percentage of coins being graded today are true raw coins, "regrades," and modern? It would seem to me one option would be for third party grading companies to open direct mail satellite offices in low cost of living cities for the modern coins.
It takes way longer than 2-3 months to be competent enough at grading to sit in a TPG office and grade without your hand being held. Hell, 2-3 months of 40+ hours a week of just looking at coins post-grading and discussing them with a finalizer might give you a solid foundation to build off, but you're going to need so so so much more than that to survive as a grader.
Watchmaking is more of a science of mechanics, coin grading, at least market grading, is more of an art.
If a YN was particularly smart, observant, untethered/undistracted and dedicated to the craft, I could see 2 years going from scratch to TPG-Entry-Level grader. JMHO and your mileage may vary.
Professional Numismatist. "It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
While at times I've complained about PCGS and NGC slabbing cleaned or overly dipped coins as non problem coins I must say that I would rather wait for PCGS graded coins than NGC. NGC's grading is all over the place and not as consistent as PCGS.
Many sports cards sent in a year or more ago have in fact dropped in value. So much so some who have submitted have just requested their cards back without being graded, thus saving the fees on valueless cardboard.
My wife and I have 187 coins in for grading…..some 2021 Morgan’s and Peace dollars, older Morgan’s, CBH, World Coins/Medals. All with Gold Shields and photography. We had a group that was received 12/7 that went into encapsulation last week as did another submittal that was received 12/15.
We figure to just keep submitting and they will be shipped out eventually and arrive in our mailbox in some kind regular frequency. I had submitted some coins to NGC and PCGS is still faster even though it may not seem like it. I would just tell everyone to hang in there, the coins are coming!
Most graders are on salary, there is no incentive to work past the 8 hours for free so the company can make more money.
John Butler
David Lawrence Rare Coins
There's at least one good alternative.
PCGS grading room is open 7 days per week. Some of the graders are already doing 6 days or 7 days per week. There reaches a point where the extra incentives really do not matter. Money isn't everything. Sometimes you need to live your life also. This back log has been going on for close to 2 years now. If you start wearing out the entire grading staff then you may find an even larger issue down the road.
John Butler
David Lawrence Rare Coins
PCGS grading room is open 7 days per week. Some of the graders are already doing 6 days or 7 days per week. There reaches a point where the extra incentives really do not matter. Money isn't everything. Sometimes you need to live your life also.
Your two statements appear to be contradictory. Am I missing something?
Imagine them folks with sports cards at PSA in the past year. Backlogged sucks.
There's an old saying in business:
"We are either complaining because there is too much work, or not enough."
Service with a smile: It's a rare thing.
I like your thinking . The expansion is a great idea.
I have 9 orders containing 241 coins at PCGS for grading. The orders were "received" on 2-22-2022, 2-25-2022 and 3-8-2022. 8 of the 9 orders are now in "grading", while 1 of the orders [6 World Coins] remains stuck in "received".
Last year I submitted 4 orders totaling 29 coins to PCGS for grading. They were "received" on 4-12-2021 and I received the four orders back in late May, 2021 through mid June, 2021.
For my new 9 orders I expect that it will not be until sometime in June, 2022 before all of them are back in my possession.
I think US coin has lots of orders. I have a US order with only one coin in grading since 1/15. That means there are still many orders ahead of it, that’s why it still sit there waiting for its turn.
I have said in the past that coin grading is a lot like radiology (my field). Perception, knowledge, judgment, experience, concentration and (ideally) quick decision making are highly valued. Of course, one needs to be properly trained, not only in the art/science of grading but also the operations of the business. There is no reason that anyone with reasonably good vision and some knowledge of coins could not be trained to be a professional grader, but most would not choose to be.
Working graders longer and harder will only exacerbate the problem. The graders will burn out and quit. The error rate will increase unacceptably. The overall quality of the product will decline. This is what happens when you give radiologists too much work, with adverse results are far more damaging than overgrading a Saint or SAE.
Like in radiology, I would expect for AI to have an impact on grading in the future. I have not seem much written about it, but it is certainly well-studied and discussed in its possible/likely application for radiology. For coin grading, I can see a future where all of the grading is done by a machine/computer, and only maybe the more expensive coins are finalized by a human grader. If I were PCGS, that is what I would be working toward.