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Coin Market Strength

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  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:

    @Cougar1978 said:
    Frankly -

    In looking at PCGS 3000 graph 1970 to date - from Dec 94 market hasn’t done much nor even come close to 89. Considering inflation a loss. Bull Market - depends on ones outlook / perspective.

    I'm not sure it means what a lot of people think it means as pop numbers have changed a lot over the years.

    I'm not sure what you are getting at. The increased populations are one of the main reasons behind the data. Buyers (not just collectors) incorrectly thought many of the coins were a lot scarcer than it turned out to be. There are duplicate resubmissions in the data but most don't have an indication of how much it's off.

    In the absence of sales pairs (a Case Shiller equivalent) comparing the same coin over time to remove the distortions of "gradeflation", it's all we've got.

  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:

    @291fifth said:

    @MrEureka said:

    @291fifth said:
    Ordinary collectors are now effectively priced out of the market for many/most quality coins. This is fueling demand for easily available (and easily promoted) items such as Morgan and Peace Dollars and ASE's with high slab grades. Does this movement have legs or is it just a bubble? It will be interesting to see what develops.

    The inability to afford decent coins is also fueling the search for minor "errors" and "varieties" that we see evidence of on this board nearly every day. I doubt if many collectors of this kind of thing will be around much longer than their first attempt to sell such material for a profit. Most who post such items on this board seem to disappear very quickly.

    Yet other collectors priced out of their current fields of interest make better decisions. Plenty of new and affordable frontiers to explore, and many represent extraordinary value.

    Plenty of new and affordable frontiers to explore ... a big YES!

    Extraordinary value ... maybe so, maybe not. Some thin markets just stay thin. Collectors may be enthusiastic but there just aren't many of them around. Many US collectors just want to cling to their Morgans.

    Or those who are priced out of what they buy now may just quit altogether.

    If some collectors "quit altogether" because US coin prices continue to rise---well I can live with that. All coin prices could remain flat and we keep those collectors---that seems to be the less desirable option.

    Rather than quitting i think most collectors will be more selective and buy fewer coins. This may make the prices rise even higher for truely rare choice coins everyone will fight over.

  • I just had an article published that compares today's boom with the crazy 1980s that readers of this thread may enjoy though

  • earlyAurumearlyAurum Posts: 745 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @LGTheCoinAnalyst said:
    I just had an article published that compares today's boom with the crazy 1980s that readers of this thread may enjoy though

    Here is the link. Good and timely article.
    Thanks

    https://coinweek.com/modern-coins/the-coin-analyst-comparing-todays-booming-coin-market-with-the-1980s/

  • GazesGazes Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @earlyAurum said:

    @LGTheCoinAnalyst said:
    I just had an article published that compares today's boom with the crazy 1980s that readers of this thread may enjoy though

    Here is the link. Good and timely article.
    Thanks

    https://coinweek.com/modern-coins/the-coin-analyst-comparing-todays-booming-coin-market-with-the-1980s/

    Excellent article. Some continue to take the doom and gloom approach about our hobby disappearing but as this article points out numismatics has never had the depth of serious collectors as it does now. Truely scarce coins will continue to benefit.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,345 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Gazes said:

    @earlyAurum said:

    @LGTheCoinAnalyst said:
    I just had an article published that compares today's boom with the crazy 1980s that readers of this thread may enjoy though

    Here is the link. Good and timely article.
    Thanks

    Excellent article. Some continue to take the doom and gloom approach about our hobby disappearing but as this article points out numismatics has never had the depth of serious collectors as it does now. Truely scarce coins will continue to benefit.

    You can never set foot into the same river twice. However, you do get wet every time.

  • ms71ms71 Posts: 1,546 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @coinpalice said:
    graded pre-33 gold is hot, the only reason that i don't unload some is the high e bay fees

    Why not use the BS&T forum? I put up a nice half eagle last week and it lasted a couple hours.

    Successful BST transactions: EagleEye, Christos, Proofmorgan,
    Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins

    Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.

    My mind reader refuses to charge me....
  • MgarmyMgarmy Posts: 2,296 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Great Article…thank you

    100% positive transactions with SurfinxHI, bigole, 1madman, collectorcoins, proofmorgan, Luke Marshall, silver pop, golden egg, point five zero,coin22lover, alohagary, blaircountycoin,joebb21

  • coinpalicecoinpalice Posts: 2,453 ✭✭✭✭✭

    i'm kind of wishy washy, lol, i'm more of a collector then a seller, most of my stuff is in high demand, and it will continue to appreciate, at the same time i don't want to hoard

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,376 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @WCC said:

    @Zoins said:

    @Cougar1978 said:
    Frankly -

    In looking at PCGS 3000 graph 1970 to date - from Dec 94 market hasn’t done much nor even come close to 89. Considering inflation a loss. Bull Market - depends on ones outlook / perspective.

    I'm not sure it means what a lot of people think it means as pop numbers have changed a lot over the years.

    I'm not sure what you are getting at. The increased populations are one of the main reasons behind the data. Buyers (not just collectors) incorrectly thought many of the coins were a lot scarcer than it turned out to be. There are duplicate resubmissions in the data but most don't have an indication of how much it's off.

    In the absence of sales pairs (a Case Shiller equivalent) comparing the same coin over time to remove the distortions of "gradeflation", it's all we've got.

    You are getting at the issue which is that the chart should not be read as coin prices declining since the coins at one part of the timeline are not equivalent to the coins at a different time.

  • Panda4456Panda4456 Posts: 362 ✭✭✭

    Philippines pesos prices are going to the moon. A 200 dollar peso in 2018 would probably go for around 1000 dollars today.

  • jonrunsjonruns Posts: 1,197 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Wahoo554

    How about this one:

  • pcgscacgoldpcgscacgold Posts: 2,943 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jonruns
    Another great example of what I am seeing. If a C and D branch gold piece has CAC approval the sky is the limit. Often the same price as coins graded much higher.

    I would love to see a chart showing 100 CAC coins from 15 years ago compared to those same CAC coins now.

  • WCCWCC Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 22, 2021 8:54AM

    @Zoins said:

    @WCC said:

    @Zoins said:

    @Cougar1978 said:
    Frankly -

    In looking at PCGS 3000 graph 1970 to date - from Dec 94 market hasn’t done much nor even come close to 89. Considering inflation a loss. Bull Market - depends on ones outlook / perspective.

    I'm not sure it means what a lot of people think it means as pop numbers have changed a lot over the years.

    I'm not sure what you are getting at. The increased populations are one of the main reasons behind the data. Buyers (not just collectors) incorrectly thought many of the coins were a lot scarcer than it turned out to be. There are duplicate resubmissions in the data but most don't have an indication of how much it's off.

    In the absence of sales pairs (a Case Shiller equivalent) comparing the same coin over time to remove the distortions of "gradeflation", it's all we've got.

    You are getting at the issue which is that the chart should not be read as coin prices declining since the coins at one part of the timeline are not equivalent to the coins at a different time.

    I'd say the chart is absolutely "directionally" accurate, though component prices will vary in accuracy. Believing anything else is a rationalization.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,345 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pcgscacgold said:
    @jonruns
    Another great example of what I am seeing. If a C and D branch gold piece has CAC approval the sky is the limit. Often the same price as coins graded much higher.

    I would love to see a chart showing 100 CAC coins from 15 years ago compared to those same CAC coins now.

    CAC had barely started 15 years ago.

  • ByersByers Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yes jt88- here are 2 of the error coins in Heritage that realized strong prices:

    $9600.

    $5760.

    mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
  • SonorandesertratSonorandesertrat Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Does anyone know how proof coins like those above wound up on the market---as isolated coins, or pulled out of proof sets?

    Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA

    RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'

    CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,782 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 23, 2021 8:38AM

    Those market charts are really only good for promoting an overall upward trend.

    Which is fine, the more positive the better to keep the new well-heeled entrants interested.

    This is a new era, doesn't compare the late 80's.

    Information is not confined to the major stakeholders and dealer network. That is a massive positive development to help keep the marketplace stable, active, liquid and level.

  • TurtleCatTurtleCat Posts: 4,628 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Sonorandesertrat said:
    Does anyone know how proof coins like those above wound up on the market---as isolated coins, or pulled out of proof sets?

    Probably the moonlight minters work that was in the SF safe deposit box that was auctioned.

  • SIowhandSIowhand Posts: 348 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Nice to have that CAC sticker as illustrated below. Same auction, same time.

  • ByersByers Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    TurtleCat- obviously you know about that, but here’s a bit more info for those who don’t:

    A very small group of Proof errors recently came from a collection that was auctioned by the State of California. The U.S. Secret Service inspected and released this collection to the State of California determining that it was legal to own. The State of California then auctioned the collection and it has been dispersed since the sale.

    mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
  • ms71ms71 Posts: 1,546 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pcgscacgold said:
    @jonruns
    Another great example of what I am seeing. If a C and D branch gold piece has CAC approval the sky is the limit. Often the same price as coins graded much higher.

    I would love to see a chart showing 100 CAC coins from 15 years ago compared to those same CAC coins now.

    CAC had barely started 15 years ago.

    I well remember being at shows back when CAC was just beginning to gain traction and listening to dealers speaking with customers. Their comments when asked about the new green beans were easily 90% derogatory, mostly along the lines of "meaningless sticker, they'll be out of business in a couple years".

    Successful BST transactions: EagleEye, Christos, Proofmorgan,
    Coinlearner, Ahrensdad, Nolawyer, RG, coinlieutenant, Yorkshireman, lordmarcovan, Soldi, masscrew, JimTyler, Relaxn, jclovescoins

    Now listen boy, I'm tryin' to teach you sumthin' . . . . that ain't no optical illusion, it only looks like an optical illusion.

    My mind reader refuses to charge me....
  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 22, 2021 12:30PM

    @jt88 said:
    In the HA auction that just ended today, there were some error coins that seemed to be selling at a high price for quarters, half dollars, and dollars.

    @Byers said:
    Yes jt88- here are 2 of the error coins in Heritage that realized strong prices:

    $9600.

    $5760.

    @jt88 @Byers

    There are definitely strong proof error coins recently. People seem to just love these coins. It doesn't hurt that the coins are easy on the eyes!

    Here's one I was looking at recently: Almost $17k for an off center!

    197?-S Eisenhower Dollar, Silver -- Struck 50% Off Center -- PR67 Ultra Cameo NGC

    And of course, this from June is leading the pack at $105,000. Amazing result.

    Undated Three-Piece "Clover Leaf" Eisenhower Dollar -- Struck on Clad Dime Planchets -- PR68 Ultra Cameo NGC

  • SonorandesertratSonorandesertrat Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Wow. Give the midnight minter an award for creativity. What's next--three different-sized planchets?

    Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA

    RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'

    CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
  • ByersByers Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Zions- you are correct saying that

    ‘There are definitely strong proof error coins recently. People seem to just love these coins.’

    There was active bidding and most went for strong prices.

    mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
  • pcgscacgoldpcgscacgold Posts: 2,943 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Not bad, paid $105,000 and wants offers over $157,500.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 22, 2021 12:55PM

    @pcgscacgold said:
    Not bad, paid $105,000 and wants offers over $157,500.

    Could be worth it as it’s a halo coin. It might be the ultimate error Ike.

    I know it definitely sold, someone made a lot and now someone else is okay selling for more. Super strong market.

  • ByersByers Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Many error collectors have voiced the opinion that it’s the ultimate prize for an Ike Dollar mint error.

    mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,345 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pcgscacgold said:
    @jonruns
    Another great example of what I am seeing. If a C and D branch gold piece has CAC approval the sky is the limit. Often the same price as coins graded much higher.

    I would love to see a chart showing 100 CAC coins from 15 years ago compared to those same CAC coins now.

    CAC had barely started 15 years ago. > @pcgscacgold said:

    Not bad, paid $105,000 and wants offers over $157,500.

    That might just be the default setting on Heritage

  • ByersByers Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Either the buyer of the clover at 105k is going to keep it forever, or want a very healthy profit reflected in his asking price, because something like that is not purchased to flop for 5% like a STG in 65😉

    mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
  • pcgscacgoldpcgscacgold Posts: 2,943 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Maybe I could put an order in for a set struck with an ASE or the 2021 Peace Dollar dies. Surprised more don't come out when workers see them hitting $100,000.

  • gumby1234gumby1234 Posts: 5,591 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Once they see those prices there will undoubtedly be more made. Kind of like coins struck on nails.

    Successful BST with ad4400, Kccoin, lablover, pointfivezero, koynekwest, jwitten, coin22lover, HalfDimeDude, erwindoc, jyzskowsi, COINS MAKE CENTS, AlanSki, BryceM

  • ByersByers Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The quality control at the U.S. Mint has drastically improved and almost nothing escapes the Mint, and very little is discovered anymore.

    The clover is almost half a century old.

    It is public knowledge that the SF Mint had a few security issues 50 years ago. Some proof and mint state errors got out.

    The proof errors contained in the safety deposit boxes that were examined by the Secret Service, and auctioned by the State of CA, were sold and dispersed.

    Virtually nothing is discovered or escapes anymore. Even major mint state error coins dated 2010 or newer, are rarely seen.

    mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 14,030 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pcgscacgold said:
    @jonruns
    Another great example of what I am seeing. If a C and D branch gold piece has CAC approval the sky is the limit. Often the same price as coins graded much higher.

    I would love to see a chart showing 100 CAC coins from 15 years ago compared to those same CAC coins now.

    CAC had barely started 15 years ago. > @pcgscacgold said:

    Not bad, paid $105,000 and wants offers over $157,500.

    That might just be the default setting on Heritage

    I don’t know what the default setting is, but I’m confident it’s not anywhere close to that.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • EliteCollectionEliteCollection Posts: 168 ✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:
    I don’t know what the default setting is, but I’m confident it’s not anywhere close to that.

    No that's the standard offer. You have to offer at least 50% more. Here's what it says on Heritage's site:

    This amount was not set by the owner and does not indicate that they will accept the offer. The minimum offer amount, unless overridden by the owner, is set to the purchase price plus 50% (minimum $300). If a previous offer on this item has been rejected, the new minimum offer amount automatically increases to 5% higher than the previous offer (or 10% for items less than $1,000).

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,345 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MFeld said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @pcgscacgold said:
    @jonruns
    Another great example of what I am seeing. If a C and D branch gold piece has CAC approval the sky is the limit. Often the same price as coins graded much higher.

    I would love to see a chart showing 100 CAC coins from 15 years ago compared to those same CAC coins now.

    CAC had barely started 15 years ago. > @pcgscacgold said:

    Not bad, paid $105,000 and wants offers over $157,500.

    That might just be the default setting on Heritage

    I don’t know what the default setting is, but I’m confident it’s not anywhere close to that.

    I thought it was 30%. That is exactly 50%. But I'm going by the wording. It doesn't say "buy it now for $157,500", it says "make offer to owner of at least $157,500".

  • EliteCollectionEliteCollection Posts: 168 ✭✭✭✭

    Sorry, not that you have to offer at least 50% more. It's just the default offer that Heritage sets unless you override it.

  • MFeldMFeld Posts: 14,030 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @ChocoboLee said:

    @MFeld said:
    I don’t know what the default setting is, but I’m confident it’s not anywhere close to that.

    No that's the standard offer. You have to offer at least 50% more. Here's what it says on Heritage's site:

    This amount was not set by the owner and does not indicate that they will accept the offer. The minimum offer amount, unless overridden by the owner, is set to the purchase price plus 50% (minimum $300). If a previous offer on this item has been rejected, the new minimum offer amount automatically increases to 5% higher than the previous offer (or 10% for items less than $1,000).

    Thank you! Now, I’m curious and want to find out if the minimum used to be a smaller percentage.

    Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.

  • EliteCollectionEliteCollection Posts: 168 ✭✭✭✭

    Yeah, IIRC the default used to be 30%. Not sure why they changed that to 50%. 50% is quite a lot unless the coin was last sold like 5+ years ago.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 22, 2021 5:25PM

    @earlyAurum said:
    It feels like a great time for our hobby. I don't think this is a peak as was experienced in 1980. This seems broad based and driven by collectors both new and old.

    What are your thoughts on what we are witnessing? Is this a structural event or a temporary one? Were you as impressed as I have been?

    I'm impressed by it. I think available capital is driving prices. If the stock market and real estate continue to affect the economy, I think coins will continue to go up.

    BTW - I did not buy a single coin!

    Why not? If it's such a great time, why stay on the side lines?

  • ByersByers Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There is tremendous strength in many segments of numismatics right now. And virtually unlimited money going into collectables and coins. It’s an exciting market!

    mikebyers.com Dealer in Major Mint Errors, Die Trials & Patterns - Author of NLG Best World Coin Book World's Greatest Mint Errors - Publisher & Editor of minterrornews.com.
  • MgarmyMgarmy Posts: 2,296 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Tonight I have officially gone to the dark side and have sold my first coin, and 59 others on GC. As I have held them for over a decade I still do not qualify for the nasty F word…at least I hope not😄

    100% positive transactions with SurfinxHI, bigole, 1madman, collectorcoins, proofmorgan, Luke Marshall, silver pop, golden egg, point five zero,coin22lover, alohagary, blaircountycoin,joebb21

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,376 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Mgarmy said:
    Tonight I have officially gone to the dark side and have sold my first coin, and 59 others on GC. As I have held them for over a decade I still do not qualify for the nasty F word…at least I hope not😄

    I thought the dark side was world coins ;)

    Selling is a normal part of light side collecting!

  • MgarmyMgarmy Posts: 2,296 ✭✭✭✭✭

    😄

    100% positive transactions with SurfinxHI, bigole, 1madman, collectorcoins, proofmorgan, Luke Marshall, silver pop, golden egg, point five zero,coin22lover, alohagary, blaircountycoin,joebb21

  • jt88jt88 Posts: 3,082 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @pcgscacgold said:
    Not bad, paid $105,000 and wants offers over $157,500.

    I don’t think he is greedy, only 50% profit.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 22, 2021 11:12PM

    @earlyAurum said:

    @Zoins said:

    @earlyAurum said:
    It feels like a great time for our hobby. I don't think this is a peak as was experienced in 1980. This seems broad based and driven by collectors both new and old.

    What are your thoughts on what we are witnessing? Is this a structural event or a temporary one? Were you as impressed as I have been?

    I'm impressed by it. I think available capital is driving prices. If the stock market and real estate continue to affect the economy, I think coins will continue to go up.

    BTW - I did not buy a single coin!

    Why not? If it's such a great time, why stay on the side lines?

    I didn’t buy anything because nothing fit my collecting goals. I was tempted. There are always nice coins but I want to maintain as much dry powder for when a special coin that fits my collection comes up. Trying to stay disciplined.

    I like that approach, but it seems I don't have as much self-discipline as you. Recently I had just 2 things to bid on going into auction day and on the day of the auction, I added two more :o

  • jonrunsjonruns Posts: 1,197 ✭✭✭✭✭

    CAC price guide in 58 = $1980

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,376 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 23, 2021 1:25AM

    @jonruns said:

    CAC price guide in 58 = $1980

    Not what you're thinking, but $3,825.00 may be a sign that the market is cooling off as it last sold for $4,320 on June 11, 2021:


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