Coin Market Strength
earlyAurum
Posts: 745 ✭✭✭✭✭
I watched many lots go off at StacksBowers and at Heritage over the last couple of days and I am really impressed by the overall strength of the market. The Simpson patterns seemed to have buyer after buyer of these beautiful but esoteric coins. I believe that these are being bought by collectors (i can't image that the resale ability is very strong especially for so many pieces). The coins seemed to be vacuumed up one after the other at strong prices.
Personally, I follow a narrow section of gold (early quarter eagles) more than anything else and prices were strong there too. Stacks Bowers sold a $2.5 1796 in PCGS MS62 with stars for $456k, a $2.5 1797 in PCGS AU58 for just under $168k and a $2.5 1831 in PCGS MS65 for $115k. None of those coins were CAC!
Lastly, I watched the competition for the mega coins such as the 1804 $1, 1794 $1, 1861 Paquet, 1921 $20 Proof and the 1854-S $5. All went for strong money except for the 1804 $1. I have never watched auctions so closely and it was certainly fun and interesting.
It feels like a great time for our hobby. I don't think this is a peak as was experienced in 1980. This seems broad based and driven by collectors both new and old.
What are your thoughts on what we are witnessing? Is this a structural event or a temporary one? Were you as impressed as I have been?
BTW - I did not buy a single coin!
Thanks, EA
Comments
Never judge the market by the top of the market. Rich people always have money.
I don't expect a big pull back on the top end. But the huge premium on widgets seems like a bubble.
What @jmlanzaf said
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It is a tough time to be a buyer of Pre-33 quality coins. People seem willing to pay anything and guide prices are off by as much as 50-75% (sometimes 100%) compared to recent auctions. Those that bought branch mint gold just 3-4 years ago were very smart.
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$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
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I agree about the top end of the market and always being well supported by wealthy buyers/collectors.
That said, I think there is far more liquidity spanning the entire buying base than people expect or estimate. Higher prices across the entire continuum are here to stay for awhile IMHO.
I watch auctions too frequently and have been for years. I too overall think things are pretty strong. Most of the nicer early type (in the affordable grades ) under 100k seem to have done well, especially if nice. I also keep an eye out on key dates, some did well like the 70-cc 25c in 55 (although not cac) brought just about what battleborn/ gardners brought twice. the 71-cc in 64 got close to 280k. I did note some softness on a few issues that I have actually had in the past. the 1804 dimes seem to have come down a bit. , course a lot more coming out in recent years. Also, the two 23/2 quarters really lagged especially at start of floor action, did gain some ground at close, but rarity alone is not carrying certain keys any longer from what I am seeing. Over the years, i kind of drifted away from rarer key date coins that were lacking in quality/eye-appeal myself.
A coin I really liked was the 78-s Half in 63cac that stacks had, and although chasing it too 100, wouldn't get it. I a least participated in the bidding. I really liked that coin. ended up at 135 if I recall. I was a little bit surprised at the 01-s quarter in 55cac, It really didnt do much more than my 53cac did selling it at GC earlier this year. Several of the dealers that specialize in this area always price them in the 50's+ range, but they never seem to bring that in auction usually low to mid 40's
I sold off the better part of my collection earlier this year just in case I didnt have much more time left, now come to find out, I have, so the only thing I bought out of the auctions was an old friend. a cc quarter. sold it in 2006 to help me get started with opening a shop. was able to re-aquire it. In fact, i still to this day have a pic of it hanging on the shop wall.
Nice post. I have posted a thread or two a few months ago stating that I believed five figure coins and up would have a surge in prices over the next 5 years. Nothing since then has changed my mind.
People seem to crave hard assets and placing their money in them (rather than getting .25% interest in the bank or in some countries negative interest rates). Mix that with the beauty and history of coins along with the rather long "stable" history of numismatics compared to other hard assets and it is not surprising to see the rise. The final piece of the puzzle in my opinion was CAC which helps the upper end market (and apparently didnt hurt non CAC coins in the recent auctions).
I expect prices in the 5 figure coins to continue to rise. Although at some point they may drop a bit again, I dont think they will ever see the price levels that were available a year ago.
Watched the Simpson patterns and they seemed strong - was able to buy the one I was after.
I don't follow $2.5 gold at all - but looked on with interest as these were sold - the 1st and 3rd ones here were PCGS Genuine - seemed like high prices to me for genuine coins.
Just a thought. In a conversation the other day someone was talking about how they felt that the GameStop thing and the following look at silver possibility made a pretty large chunk of people aware that this was another form of wealth.
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
I've perused Wall Street Bets. Those folks never went into silver. In fact, they were mocking the media reports that suggested that they were interested. That said, someone has become interested in widgets. VF/better Morgans at $32 wholesale is nuts given how many tens of millions of them there are. Proof silver eagles at $70 wholesale is also nuts given how many flawless millions of gems exist. That is the market sector that I would be really careful with.
Look at silver was my comment but even that look may have sparked something. There’s seems to be more people with less knowledge. Like me🙀
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
I believe this to be related to what is happening in many other normal areas of the economy, things such as cars, construction and contracted home repairs/remodeling. people everywhere were prevented from spending their money as they chose so as our economy opened up the cash has flowed freely. I don't think the overall coin market is in a typical up cycle, more like it was artificially depressed and is now artificially up.
I have maybe 6-10 dealer sites I visit regularly and 4-5 auction sites. during most of 2020 there were modest, original looking, attractively toned, mid-grade coins available at good prices. the deeper we got into the pandemic the smaller inventories got. as we started coming out of it mid-winter the inventories began to get bigger, but the coins tended to be either whiter or more intensely toned, higher graded and more expensive. concerning what I look for at auction, well, that has circled around, also. now there seems to be more of an interest in buying than selling, not close to the amount and quality being sold now compared to pre-pandemic, yet prices are stupidly high.
all you have to have done for the past 6-8 months to read the tenor of collectors at this site is realize one thing: when shows start back up regularly prices will be higher and collectors will be all too willing to pony up the cash.
The market is clearly hot in the segment I’ve been operating in lately - the gold $500-$3000 range. Gold dollars which seemed to be a lot more common are becoming harder to find. However, I am starting to feel like it’s buying during a run-up. So I’m thinking of slowing things down soon and see where the market is going. I may miss out on a few things but I may also be reducing my risk of being too far upside down.
Ordinary collectors are now effectively priced out of the market for many/most quality coins. This is fueling demand for easily available (and easily promoted) items such as Morgan and Peace Dollars and ASE's with high slab grades. Does this movement have legs or is it just a bubble? It will be interesting to see what develops.
The inability to afford decent coins is also fueling the search for minor "errors" and "varieties" that we see evidence of on this board nearly every day. I doubt if many collectors of this kind of thing will be around much longer than their first attempt to sell such material for a profit. Most who post such items on this board seem to disappear very quickly.
A couple of thoughts.
Surplus of money around. Look at all commodities. Collectables remain firm. Print and you shall get.
New spending patterns for the moment. Vacations are out. Eating out / bars/ entertainment in general. a bit muted in many places People now Have a few extra bits to buy something?
Will it last. Every bull market lays the seeds of the next bear market. As Brian flanagan sold in cocktail, "all good things end badly, or else they wouldn't end". How long will the monetary game last at this present trajectory? Leave when the party's getting started and you missed a spectacular event. Leave too early and you missed a great time. Leave too late and you pay the monetary price and you might have to clean up?
Alas timing is everything.
I don’t go by what rich people are paying for coins. This is chump change to them. Their stock market dividends alone are probably way over what they spend on coins, entertainment, travel, etc. So some guy pays 3x price guide for some big ticket coin go buy it from him then if you thinks that’s cool lol.
I do read the column on the coin market by Richard at NN (which I consider unbiased). The bottom line for me however in evaluating market is my retail sales from shows and online store (bottom line of the business). Sort of like the altimeter displayed to the pilot of a plane.
I do believe the runup of widgets (promotion?), especially generic dollars will collapse. I don’t have any interest in them unless (slabbed) BV plus $25 for 63, plus $50 64, plus $75 65. With the slide down in silver market correction may be starting already.
Like real estate has been. It's a seller's market.
If you want to sell within the next few years, sell sell sell
I'm just trying to put together a collection over here. (Gold type coins w/cac)
I had some success in 2020 finding a few nice coins in the 2-5k range, and though I felt I was "paying up" for them at the time, they have continued to appreciate and I am probably at least break even on most if I were to sell today.
2021 on the other hand has been increasingly difficult. Less coins I'm interested in, and the ones that do show up are priced often beyond my comfort level, even though I've upped my budget considerably. Auctions are crazy right now, and its a mad dash to claim anything fairly priced on dealer websites. I've missed out on a few coins by finding them a minute later than someone else did.
Im not sure if the current market is in a solid upward trajectory or a bubble.
One thing I've mentioned before that gives me pause is that a lot of transactions seem to be dealer-to-dealer. We've heard this in show reports, and I have seen plenty of evidence - seeing familiar coins showing up at multiple dealers over a short time period, etc. So I have to wonder. Take dealer-to-dealer sales out and what is the underlying collector demand?
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I was watching the 1796 half dollars. There have been a lot of these selling lately. but I really liked the 2 in the heritage sale, although preferred the NGC VG10 coin over the PCGS example. I had a max bid in mind below what they sold for even with having to factor in 5% sales tax here. Those 2 coins went cheaper than I expected, and cheaper than they would have if I had gotten my computer up a few minutes faster.
One major additional observation is the success of GreatCollections. I would be interested in the stats for them. I suspect the dollar volume is increasing significantly.
I don't consider it a bubble (yet), not close to one from what I have read despite isolated pockets of inflated or noticeable price run-ups.
With the highest price level by far of any country, the US market is more dependent upon financial conditions than any other. With an above average participation rate and much larger collector base than all others, it's also more dependent upon general economic conditions.
One thing I do know is that the economy is artificially inflated from the loosest monetary and fiscal policy, ever. It's been a substantially fake economy since at least 2008 during which time the actual economic fundamentals have deteriorated and most people are either marginally better off or poorer.
More recently, this fake prosperity has filtered somewhat into coins and we'll see how long it lasts.
Whatever is happening I like it. A lot of my cents are going up in value. Some that I've had graded in the recent past are now actually worth the grading fee.
Earlier this year, my 67+ 51 S quarter was worth 350.00 at the time of grading, a few months later it jumped to 650.00, I checked it again last week and now it's at 750.00 however, the top pop (68) has actually dropped a few thousand.
Best year in a B&M since last year. Seems the pandemic got more people back into , than out of. So in 12 years, it's looking brighter.
I have always paid too much for 3, 4, and very low 5 figure coins. Now it seems everyone is, I think that is good for everyone. I don't see that changing in the near term, sustaining long term, we will see. Coins as an art collectable are very good value still.
Best, SH
I'm right with you 100%. I've been buying in this segment for a while. I was "stealing" them for the past several years but maybe late 2019 I started noticing pre-1933 dry up at the levels I was purchasing. By the time the pandemic hit, I was SOL and buying became very limited. I try and pick up what I can but have let some pass by since the economy opened up and premiums rose beyond my comfort level(Added to the higher price of gold).
I did pick up a couple rarer pieces when the opportunity has arisen but those are few and far between.
Mark
I was outbid on many coins. I end up only won 3 coins with SB and two gold with HA. People have money to spend.
I see a lot of action in what I would call the classic beginner series. Morgans, Lincolns, Walkers, accessible gold (forgive me, advanced aficianados of these series, for the term beginner). I have not yet seen the same tide in the more esoteric series, bust, seated, etc. I believe this is being driven by new collectors and stacker converts, and if they stick around some will migrate to these other series.
Again, this is just my perspective on coins in the 3-4 figure range. I can't speak for the upper end of the market.
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Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
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Given choice with bid war with what’s hot (especially if I think it’s overvalued) or going to some other market segment I feel is undervalued - I prefer the latter.
I don’t see anything really wrong with stacking silver generics but silver has been going down. Plus when trying sell this material competition intense.
I have 60 coins with GC now so hope you guys are right about hot market
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Yet other collectors priced out of their current fields of interest make better decisions. Plenty of new and affordable frontiers to explore, and many represent extraordinary value.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Plenty of new and affordable frontiers to explore ... a big YES!
Extraordinary value ... maybe so, maybe not. Some thin markets just stay thin. Collectors may be enthusiastic but there just aren't many of them around. Many US collectors just want to cling to their Morgans.
Or those who are priced out of what they buy now may just quit altogether.
It depends upon their general interest and whether they can still afford something else they consider sufficiently interesting. I am one that collects an "esoteric" non-US series as my primary interest with a few sideline (all non-US) collections.
So far, I have been able to afford everything that I have seen come up for sale that I really want, if I am willing to spend the money. If it sells above what I will or can pay, I don't have the option of moving down the quality scale because the coins aren't available to be bought.
There are a few other areas I will consider but not many to put any meaningful amount financially into it. Examples include a combination of Byzantine silver and bronze, ancient Greek and Roman, Crusader coinage and medieval European. But there is a limit to how far "downward" I will be willing to collect.
graded pre-33 gold is hot, the only reason that i don't unload some is the high e bay fees
Put them in bullion and you can be under 5%
I will get admonished for saying this, but most collectors can't "think outside the box" to find such affordable frontiers. They stick to the same old tired Red Book Federal coins.
They split.
WSB mods banned silver posts, and the whole chunk of 'em moved over to https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetsilver
Enjoy the laughs.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
I believe a lot of it has to do with their perception of marketability, which may be accurate or not. It's been my opinion for a long time that most collectors don't actually like collecting enough to risk losing any noticeable amount of money.
US collectors are VERY profit oriented even though the "profits" are often/usually just an illusion. This isn't new.
Most people can't think outside of the box. Still, I think it's important to encourage anyone who may be listening to explore the roads less traveled. And I'm not just talking US vs. World. There are incredible bargain collecting opportunities in both areas. (Tough to say if they'll actually turn into good investments, but the odds favor a smart trailblazer.)
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
IMHO, the Coin Market is improving based on PCGS 3000 index (dont ask me how they make up those indexes). Rising indexes means to the average person that maybe coins arent just a junk collecting hobby. The problem is, some coins are really desirable, some are expensive, and some are just overpriced. And as @MrEureka says there are little overlooked areas of the coin market where something can be inexpensive, interesting, and potentially desirable. there are many many different markets for each type of coin, year etc. So its difficult to really measure.
The PCGS price indexes, and finished auctions on HA and EB are the best indicators we have. i.e, https://www.pcgs.com/prices/coin-index/pcgs3000
By the way, the market back in 1980-90 was really insane. Values went up exponentially as the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market. Those were the days, my firend. Fortunately I was too young and poor to get burned badly, but I'm sure some people did. I would like the coin market to stay affordable to new collectors, yet ever appreciating.
Another theory is that the Hunt brothers were actually just skapegoats. When the Feds put the kabosh on a gold rally, silver rallied instead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG4sjFnX6YQ
Er, $1 bills............
I hear BU 1969 quarters are hawt!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Right up there with 1979-D Susan B Anthony dollars. LOL
I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I read them
Frankly -
In looking at PCGS 3000 graph 1970 to date - from Dec 94 market hasn’t done much nor even come close to 89. Considering inflation a loss. Bull Market - depends on ones outlook / perspective.
Looking at gold 8 reales the other day at heritage. Most are already over the estimate.
Some coins in the basket will be bailed out because of gradeflation, and others are hopelessly under water.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
In the HA auction that just ended today, there were some error coins that seemed to be selling at a high price for quarters, half dollars, and dollars.
I'm not sure it means what a lot of people think it means as pop numbers have changed a lot over the years.