@jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
Not what you're thinking, but $3,825.00 may be a sign that the market is cooling off as it last sold for $4,320 on June 11, 2021:
May be less about the "market" and more about the "venue".
And/or the same coin reappearing for sale again so soon. Either way, why look at a single coin for a sign as to whether the market might be cooling off (or heating up)?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
It seems that way to me. I have bid on at least 6-8 coins in each of the last 3 GC auctions and some at Heritage and won zero. In each case I went well above guide. People keep saying the guide has not adjusted. I wonder how much of this is dealer buying to get quality pieces. I get that there is a lot of money out there. I will wait on the sideline for a while.
Not what you're thinking, but $3,825.00 may be a sign that the market is cooling off as it last sold for $4,320 on June 11, 2021:
May be less about the "market" and more about the "venue".
And/or the same coin reappearing for sale again so soon. Either way, why look at a single coin for a sign as to whether the market might be cooling off (or heating up)?
Agreed. One less bidder can make a world of difference.
Not what you're thinking, but $3,825.00 may be a sign that the market is cooling off as it last sold for $4,320 on June 11, 2021:
May be less about the "market" and more about the "venue".
And/or the same coin reappearing for sale again so soon. Either way, why look at a single coin for a sign as to whether the market might be cooling off (or heating up)?
Agreed. One less bidder can make a world of difference.
If I had stayed on that coin it would have gone over $4000. I was on the fence. I liked the look but it didn't serve an exact purpose in my collection.
@DNADave said:
Looking at gold 8 reales the other day at heritage. Most are already over the estimate.
I would pay a lot of money for a legitimate gold 8 reales. (Reales are silver, escudos are gold).
The estimates were ridiculously low on the ANA auctions in many (most?) cases 40-50% of what a reasonable price would have been.
How are you determining reasonable price?
Based on the fact that nearly every other example has sold for 2x the estimate.
It's strange to have an estimate if it's not based on other prices.
How much do estimates drive final prices?
Absolutely none so why both with the stupidly low estimates.
Based
Having them is a different question then having accurate ones, but if you do have them, ideally they would be somewhat based on recent prices.
Different auction houses have different strategies for establishing estimates. Some are trying to be "in the ballpark". Some are trying to intentionally be high to plant the number in the bidders head. Some are trying to be intentionally low so consignors feel like the auction house really maximized their sales.
Heritage tends to try to be accurate in my experience. However, world coins can be much harder to value than U.S. coins. They are often far scarcer, trade less often, and represent a thinner market overall.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
You wouldn't expect a guide to be accurate in a volatile market or a thin market. CAC gold is fairly thin. And the market strength of late has made the guides less reliable.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
It seems that way to me. I have bid on at least 6-8 coins in each of the last 3 GC auctions and some at Heritage and won zero. In each case I went well above guide. People keep saying the guide has not adjusted. I wonder how much of this is dealer buying to get quality pieces. I get that there is a lot of money out there. I will wait on the sideline for a while.
I hope the people paying for these are buying absolutely unique coins, not just conditional rarities.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
You wouldn't expect a guide to be accurate in a volatile market or a thin market. CAC gold is fairly thin. And the market strength of late has made the guides less reliable.
Then why have estimates in such an environment? Perhaps the people setting them didn't realize what's happening?
Will they regret it? Only time will tell...
It looks like the virus is here to stay a bit longer, so whatever is happening will last a bit longer as well.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
You wouldn't expect a guide to be accurate in a volatile market or a thin market. CAC gold is fairly thin. And the market strength of late has made the guides less reliable.
Then why have estimates in such an environment? Perhaps the people setting them didn't realize what's happening?
Will they regret it? Only time will tell...
It looks like the virus is here to stay a bit longer, so whatever is happening will last a bit longer as well.
Except I think the attitude and economics surrounding the virus are also changing. You see less pliancy in the population, for example. Stimulus money is expiring, the rent moratorium is expiring, inflation has ticked up. I'm not saying that necessarily changes the market direction but it has to be a factor.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
You wouldn't expect a guide to be accurate in a volatile market or a thin market. CAC gold is fairly thin. And the market strength of late has made the guides less reliable.
Then why have estimates in such an environment? Perhaps the people setting them didn't realize what's happening?
Will they regret it? Only time will tell...
It looks like the virus is here to stay a bit longer, so whatever is happening will last a bit longer as well.
Except I think the attitude and economics surrounding the virus are also changing. You see less pliancy in the population, for example. Stimulus money is expiring, the rent moratorium is expiring, inflation has ticked up. I'm not saying that necessarily changes the market direction but it has to be a factor.
It is a factor, but I wonder how much those things affect the ones that are buying.
At the beginning we saw weakness in very high end coins which seems to be gone now.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
You wouldn't expect a guide to be accurate in a volatile market or a thin market. CAC gold is fairly thin. And the market strength of late has made the guides less reliable.
Then why have estimates in such an environment? Perhaps the people setting them didn't realize what's happening?
Will they regret it? Only time will tell...
It looks like the virus is here to stay a bit longer, so whatever is happening will last a bit longer as well.
Except I think the attitude and economics surrounding the virus are also changing. You see less pliancy in the population, for example. Stimulus money is expiring, the rent moratorium is expiring, inflation has ticked up. I'm not saying that necessarily changes the market direction but it has to be a factor.
It is a factor, but I wonder how much those things affect the ones that are buying.
At the beginning we saw weakness in very high end coins which seems to be gone now.
It's really hard to know. What has been interesting is the surge in prices across virtually all collectibles during the pandemic. This also, of course, coincides with surges in retirements as Boomers continue to leave labor markets.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
You wouldn't expect a guide to be accurate in a volatile market or a thin market. CAC gold is fairly thin. And the market strength of late has made the guides less reliable.
Then why have estimates in such an environment? Perhaps the people setting them didn't realize what's happening?
Will they regret it? Only time will tell...
It looks like the virus is here to stay a bit longer, so whatever is happening will last a bit longer as well.
Except I think the attitude and economics surrounding the virus are also changing. You see less pliancy in the population, for example. Stimulus money is expiring, the rent moratorium is expiring, inflation has ticked up. I'm not saying that necessarily changes the market direction but it has to be a factor.
It is a factor, but I wonder how much those things affect the ones that are buying.
At the beginning we saw weakness in very high end coins which seems to be gone now.
It's really hard to know. What has been interesting is the surge in prices across virtually all collectibles during the pandemic. This also, of course, coincides with surges in retirements as Boomers continue to leave labor markets.
Only time will tell...
Certainly the boomers affect any market they turn their attention to. The effect on hobbies like coins will be interesting. Perhaps enjoying hobbies like coins comes later than hobbies like muscle cars?
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
You wouldn't expect a guide to be accurate in a volatile market or a thin market. CAC gold is fairly thin. And the market strength of late has made the guides less reliable.
Then why have estimates in such an environment? Perhaps the people setting them didn't realize what's happening?
Will they regret it? Only time will tell...
It looks like the virus is here to stay a bit longer, so whatever is happening will last a bit longer as well.
Except I think the attitude and economics surrounding the virus are also changing. You see less pliancy in the population, for example. Stimulus money is expiring, the rent moratorium is expiring, inflation has ticked up. I'm not saying that necessarily changes the market direction but it has to be a factor.
It is a factor, but I wonder how much those things affect the ones that are buying.
At the beginning we saw weakness in very high end coins which seems to be gone now.
It's really hard to know. What has been interesting is the surge in prices across virtually all collectibles during the pandemic. This also, of course, coincides with surges in retirements as Boomers continue to leave labor markets.
Only time will tell...
Certainly the boomers affect any market they turn their attention to. The effect on hobbies like coins will be interesting. Perhaps enjoying hobbies like coins comes later than hobbies like muscle cars?
The higher end of the income and wealth distribution has benefited substantially from the fake wealth and artificial economy associated with the policy response to the virus. Those buying at the higher end already had the financial capacity to do it prior to COVID, so by elimination I conclude it's predominantly psychological, regardless of the supposed underlying reason.
@jonruns said:
$3800 or $4300 for a coin with Price Guide of $1900 is the same thing.
People buying $4000 coins most likely do not receive stimulus checks or rent.
Stimulus, no. Paying rent, maybe. A local landlord was furious. One of their tenants stopped paying rent but bought a boat.
Sweet!!!! LOL
Are you seeing good action in your end of the market?
I am not promoting at the moment as I am kinda on Summer vacation going on as many fishing trips as I can. Crazy fishing right now right offshore in San Diego
I watched the proof errors as many were on my watchlist, but bought none.
I will comment more on this thread on one of Mikes comments.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I bailed in the 2k’s also. Looks like a lot of of us were on that. I guess we know why the price went so high.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I bailed in the 2k’s also. Looks like a lot of of us were on that. I guess we know why the price went so high.
If either of us stayed it would have reached the sale price from 2 months ago. It was a nice looking coin but others will show up.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I bailed at $2100. I saw it sold for $4300 recently but everything Fairmont in that auction sold for stupid prices. I believe a thread was started here about the high prices from that auction. An 1858 PCGS/CAC 58 for comparison purposes sold for $2600 at a StacksBowers auction 03/21.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I bailed at $2100. I saw it sold for $4300 recently but everything Fairmont in that auction sold for stupid prices. I believe a thread was started here about the high prices from that auction. An 1858 PCGS/CAC 58 for comparison purposes sold for $2600 at a StacksBowers auction 03/21.
So 3 of us were bidding on that coin. Glad we didn't get into a bidding war. I wonder if a forum member won the coin?
@jonruns said:
$3800 or $4300 for a coin with Price Guide of $1900 is the same thing.
People buying $4000 coins most likely do not receive stimulus checks or rent.
Stimulus, no. Paying rent, maybe. A local landlord was furious. One of their tenants stopped paying rent but bought a boat.
Sweet!!!! LOL
I vote sour, not at all sweet.
I like how the renter used the law to buy his boat.
Rich people use the law all the time to make bank.
Is this a confession?
Given that the landlord is risking default on her mortgage, I'm not sure there is any reason to cheer here. There are a lot of middle-class and retirees that have a rental duplex for extra income. Giving 18 months of free rent is not exactly within their means.
@jonruns said:
$3800 or $4300 for a coin with Price Guide of $1900 is the same thing.
People buying $4000 coins most likely do not receive stimulus checks or rent.
Stimulus, no. Paying rent, maybe. A local landlord was furious. One of their tenants stopped paying rent but bought a boat.
Sweet!!!! LOL
I vote sour, not at all sweet.
I like how the renter used the law to buy his boat.
Rich people use the law all the time to make bank.
Is this a confession?
Given that the landlord is risking default on her mortgage, I'm not sure there is any reason to cheer here. There are a lot of middle-class and retirees that have a rental duplex for extra income. Giving 18 months of free rent is not exactly within their means.
I agree, I have many friends who have rental units. The landlord certainly should be pissed off, I would if I was him.
But, I just like how the little guy (renter) used the law to make his life better and not his landlords.
We all got to do what we got to do to live life. For some, a boat make life super fun, throw the little guy a bone now and then. He used the law to make his life better as the rich do daily. He broke no laws.
What’s hurting me is they are putting in such nuclear bids (like they are paying way ahead of the market) making it tough for me win anything for inventory.
Once the market finally corrects their little party wb over like it was for a lot of them in 89.
@Cougar1978 said:
What’s hurting me is they are putting in such nuclear bids (like they are paying way ahead of the market) making it tough for me win anything for inventory.
Once the market finally corrects their little party wb over like it was for a lot of them in 89.
I think this market move is much more orderly than 1989. It is also doesn't appear (yet) to have the kind of frenzy that 1989 did.
How do we know that this move UP isn't the market correcting?
Already skunked on all 10 lots in Heritage’s auction this week. It’s very frustrating - I put in strong retail bids at or above recent auction prices. I generally play in the $50 - $1,000 range in barbers, Peace, $2.5 Indians and Type.
It’s just too hard for me to physiologically jump 20%+ on relatively common material from prices 6-12mos ago. Guess I won’t be much of a buyer until the market stabilizes.
I’ve been spending more and more time the past few week exploring my nascent interest in certain world coin series…
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I bailed at $2100. I saw it sold for $4300 recently but everything Fairmont in that auction sold for stupid prices. I believe a thread was started here about the high prices from that auction. An 1858 PCGS/CAC 58 for comparison purposes sold for $2600 at a StacksBowers auction 03/21.
So 3 of us were bidding on that coin. Glad we didn't get into a bidding war. I wonder if a forum member won the coin?
5 years ago I was buying these sleeper dates…1842, 1846 Small Letters, 1849, 1850, 1858, 1859, 1860 $5’s
There was zero competition, just couldn’t find the coins. Now three people are bidding, no wonder the prices are up. People appreciate there rare Philly days a bit more!
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I bailed at $2100. I saw it sold for $4300 recently but everything Fairmont in that auction sold for stupid prices. I believe a thread was started here about the high prices from that auction. An 1858 PCGS/CAC 58 for comparison purposes sold for $2600 at a StacksBowers auction 03/21.
So 3 of us were bidding on that coin. Glad we didn't get into a bidding war. I wonder if a forum member won the coin?
5 years ago I was buying these sleeper dates…1842, 1846 Small Letters, 1849, 1850, 1858, 1859, 1860 $5’s
There was zero competition, just couldn’t find the coins. Now three people are bidding, no wonder the prices are up. People appreciate there rare Philly days a bit more!
From what I can see there were 11 bidders so there was a lot of interest in this coin.
@pcgscacgold said: @jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
I bailed at $2100. I saw it sold for $4300 recently but everything Fairmont in that auction sold for stupid prices. I believe a thread was started here about the high prices from that auction. An 1858 PCGS/CAC 58 for comparison purposes sold for $2600 at a StacksBowers auction 03/21.
So 3 of us were bidding on that coin. Glad we didn't get into a bidding war. I wonder if a forum member won the coin?
5 years ago I was buying these sleeper dates…1842, 1846 Small Letters, 1849, 1850, 1858, 1859, 1860 $5’s
There was zero competition, just couldn’t find the coins. Now three people are bidding, no wonder the prices are up. People appreciate there rare Philly days a bit more!
From what I can see there were 11 bidders so there was a lot of interest in this coin.
@amwldcoin said:
The big question would be how many were in the zone so to speak!
Looks like bidder 9 was very busy, bidder 11 came in at $3200 and bidder 10 took one shot at $3400 but lost to bidder 11 at that price. Too bad #10 didn't do $3401. Bidders 7-11 were all at $2500 or more.
I use my wife's selling history as a way to gage the coin market we dabble in (DE's).
When she sells a number of coins rather quickly, the market is strong and rising. When her sales slow down the market is starting to weaken.
Right now, I can say with no hesitation that I will have to ask her to find out what's going on.
Spoke to the MRS.... WE deal in low end junk / generics $20 DE's and from her perspective the market is very quiet.
She said the market was very strong for most of the year but went very quiet in the last 30 days. Perhaps more of a reflection on gold bullion sentiment than coins? Most coins we deal in are gold proxies.
My buying has caught up to our sales so we are in balance.
with that said, I'm still searching for interesting coins but as of now more price conscious with respect to buying.
Spoke to the MRS.... WE deal in low end junk / generics $20 DE's and from her perspective the market is very quiet.
She said the market was very strong for most of the year but went very quiet in the last 30 days. Perhaps more of a reflection on gold bullion sentiment than coins? Most coins we deal in are gold proxies.
My buying has caught up to our sales so we are in balance.
with that said, I'm still searching for interesting coins but as of now more price conscious with respect to buying.
From my experience...this is the slowest time of year for the bay!
@jkrk said:
Spoke to the MRS.... WE deal in low end junk / generics $20 DE's and from her perspective the market is very quiet.
She said the market was very strong for most of the year but went very quiet in the last 30 days. Perhaps more of a reflection on gold bullion sentiment than coins? Most coins we deal in are gold proxies.
My buying has caught up to our sales so we are in balance.
with that said, I'm still searching for interesting coins but as of now more price conscious with respect to buying.
It is possible that the difference in stacks BP vs Ians bp created that price diff. I know in the end that the price paid is the price paid by buyer, but when people bid, Its somewhat secondary until they get to figuring 10% vs 20%
A coin I just repurchased out of stacks auction for my self. I sold in 2005 for 28k direct sale. It just sold at stacks for my 24 k bid hammer, with me buying at 28.8k. So depending on what deal this consignor had, most likely he has lost on holding this one for 15years. (I know for fact, its the same consignor that has owned it all this time). Basically it cost me 800.00 to get it back. , had it been at GC , would have been a little cheaper for me possibly due to 10% vs 20%, and may have netted the consignor the same or a little more possibly.
even though i sold most of my stuff, I always said I buy it back if it ever came up, well finally it did after all that time. it was a must buy (personally for me) just to keep.
Actually that 01-S quarter you mentioned sold for almost a thousand less than your coin with the buyers premium!
It sold for 32K in 2013 and 2 months later for 47k!
@jdimmick said:
It is possible that the difference in stacks BP vs Ians bp created that price diff. I know in the end that the price paid is the price paid by buyer, but when people bid, Its somewhat secondary until they get to figuring 10% vs 20%
A coin I just repurchased out of stacks auction for my self. I sold in 2005 for 28k direct sale. It just sold at stacks for my 24 k bid hammer, with me buying at 28.8k. So depending on what deal this consignor had, most likely he has lost on holding this one for 15years. (I know for fact, its the same consignor that has owned it all this time). Basically it cost me 800.00 to get it back. , had it been at GC , would have been a little cheaper for me possibly due to 10% vs 20%, and may have netted the consignor the same or a little more possibly.
even though i sold most of my stuff, I always said I buy it back if it ever came up, well finally it did after all that time. it was a must buy (personally for me) just to keep.
I would have paid that 10 years ago. Every 58-P piece of gold from $3 and up is going to be contested by hungry date-specialists who know seeing a wholesome piece of each or any of those denominations once a year.
Fairmont may have made me a statistical liar
I think any market perception should be viewed from both macro and micro perspectives.
Errors are going nuts because of true-blue enthusiasts.
MS62 84-CC's have already stopped going nuts (though retail mass-marketing guppies are going to remain very excited until........?
Every un-FUBAR pre-Liberty gold issue will become less and less available. Until the 12th of Never and beyond.
Unc Details, lightly-cleaned Heraldic $10's may offer satisfactions not previously appreciated by Type collectors.
Non-CAC MS68 Morgans will be $2500 by the end of 2022.
My biggest takeaway is that much of the pre-COVID collector-investor market is irrelevant. There are amounts of discretionary cash floating about previously unencountered since the pre-2008 run-up and now exceeding that opportunity-seeking pool of "float" by multiples.
Beyond any marquee value for coins as a desirable entity signifying a glittering object of virtue for the casual gazillionaire, consider throwing out of your calculations every coin sold for over $1,000,000 in the last two years.
There is no "they" there. Each is an event, not a coin, no matter how many tens of millions of dollars the same purchaser may have spent elsewhere.
Remember that you just watched the tail-end of the total collapse of the 1804 $1 market, 1913 nickels flat-lined half a decade ago, and it really doesn't matter if the train-wreck Unc Paquet $20 is worth another half-mil this week.
"People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." - Geo. Orwell
Comments
I would pay a lot of money for a legitimate gold 8 reales. (Reales are silver, escudos are gold).
The estimates were ridiculously low on the ANA auctions in many (most?) cases 40-50% of what a reasonable price would have been.
Latin American Collection
How are you determining reasonable price?
How much do estimates drive final prices?
Based on the fact that nearly every other example has sold for 2x the estimate.
Absolutely none so why bother with the stupidly low estimates.
Based
Latin American Collection
@jonruns
I was in that one until $2500. I saw it had sold 2 months ago at $4320 but just couldn't go any higher. It is a nice coin but double CAC guide is getting as pricey as the C and D branch gold.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
It's strange to have an estimate if it's not based on other prices.
Having them is a different question then having accurate ones, but if you do have them, ideally they would be somewhat based on recent prices.
I wonder what's happening. Do people just want to win at any cost? If so, will they regret it?
May be less about the "market" and more about the "venue".
Could be the venue, but there are many reasons it could be. Another reason could be that it's no longer fresh.
And/or the same coin reappearing for sale again so soon. Either way, why look at a single coin for a sign as to whether the market might be cooling off (or heating up)?
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
It seems that way to me. I have bid on at least 6-8 coins in each of the last 3 GC auctions and some at Heritage and won zero. In each case I went well above guide. People keep saying the guide has not adjusted. I wonder how much of this is dealer buying to get quality pieces. I get that there is a lot of money out there. I will wait on the sideline for a while.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Agreed. One less bidder can make a world of difference.
If I had stayed on that coin it would have gone over $4000. I was on the fence. I liked the look but it didn't serve an exact purpose in my collection.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Different auction houses have different strategies for establishing estimates. Some are trying to be "in the ballpark". Some are trying to intentionally be high to plant the number in the bidders head. Some are trying to be intentionally low so consignors feel like the auction house really maximized their sales.
Heritage tends to try to be accurate in my experience. However, world coins can be much harder to value than U.S. coins. They are often far scarcer, trade less often, and represent a thinner market overall.
You wouldn't expect a guide to be accurate in a volatile market or a thin market. CAC gold is fairly thin. And the market strength of late has made the guides less reliable.
Will they regret it? Only time will tell...
I hope the people paying for these are buying absolutely unique coins, not just conditional rarities.
Then why have estimates in such an environment? Perhaps the people setting them didn't realize what's happening?
It looks like the virus is here to stay a bit longer, so whatever is happening will last a bit longer as well.
Except I think the attitude and economics surrounding the virus are also changing. You see less pliancy in the population, for example. Stimulus money is expiring, the rent moratorium is expiring, inflation has ticked up. I'm not saying that necessarily changes the market direction but it has to be a factor.
It is a factor, but I wonder how much those things affect the ones that are buying.
At the beginning we saw weakness in very high end coins which seems to be gone now.
At the ANA it was a lot of dealer to dealer trades. Also a lot of wholesale activity. How are the setting prices if guides are so far off?
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
It's really hard to know. What has been interesting is the surge in prices across virtually all collectibles during the pandemic. This also, of course, coincides with surges in retirements as Boomers continue to leave labor markets.
Only time will tell...
Certainly the boomers affect any market they turn their attention to. The effect on hobbies like coins will be interesting. Perhaps enjoying hobbies like coins comes later than hobbies like muscle cars?
$3800 or $4300 for a coin with Price Guide of $1900 is the same thing.
People buying $4000 coins most likely do not receive stimulus checks or rent.
The higher end of the income and wealth distribution has benefited substantially from the fake wealth and artificial economy associated with the policy response to the virus. Those buying at the higher end already had the financial capacity to do it prior to COVID, so by elimination I conclude it's predominantly psychological, regardless of the supposed underlying reason.
Stimulus, no. Paying rent, maybe. A local landlord was furious. One of their tenants stopped paying rent but bought a boat.
Sweet!!!! LOL
Are you seeing good action in your end of the market?
I vote sour, not at all sweet.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I am not promoting at the moment as I am kinda on Summer vacation going on as many fishing trips as I can. Crazy fishing right now right offshore in San Diego
I watched the proof errors as many were on my watchlist, but bought none.
I will comment more on this thread on one of Mikes comments.
Need more coffee first to clear my head.
I like how the renter used the law to buy his boat.
Rich people use the law all the time to make bank.
I bailed in the 2k’s also. Looks like a lot of of us were on that. I guess we know why the price went so high.
If either of us stayed it would have reached the sale price from 2 months ago. It was a nice looking coin but others will show up.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Gold coins are hot right now! Whether United States or foreign! I am noticing they going for alot more.
Positive BST as a seller: Namvet69, Lordmarcovan, Bigjpst, Soldi, mustanggt, CoinHoader, moursund, SufinxHi, al410, JWP
I bailed at $2100. I saw it sold for $4300 recently but everything Fairmont in that auction sold for stupid prices. I believe a thread was started here about the high prices from that auction. An 1858 PCGS/CAC 58 for comparison purposes sold for $2600 at a StacksBowers auction 03/21.
So 3 of us were bidding on that coin. Glad we didn't get into a bidding war. I wonder if a forum member won the coin?
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
Is this a confession?
Given that the landlord is risking default on her mortgage, I'm not sure there is any reason to cheer here. There are a lot of middle-class and retirees that have a rental duplex for extra income. Giving 18 months of free rent is not exactly within their means.
I agree, I have many friends who have rental units. The landlord certainly should be pissed off, I would if I was him.
But, I just like how the little guy (renter) used the law to make his life better and not his landlords.
We all got to do what we got to do to live life. For some, a boat make life super fun, throw the little guy a bone now and then. He used the law to make his life better as the rich do daily. He broke no laws.
What’s hurting me is they are putting in such nuclear bids (like they are paying way ahead of the market) making it tough for me win anything for inventory.
Once the market finally corrects their little party wb over like it was for a lot of them in 89.
I think this market move is much more orderly than 1989. It is also doesn't appear (yet) to have the kind of frenzy that 1989 did.
How do we know that this move UP isn't the market correcting?
This is one of the areas that I focus on and have had an article published about, as you know.
IMO, ultra modern mint error coins are under appreciated and underpriced for just how extremely rare they are.
I will just keep picking them up under the radar and bide my time as the market will surely figure this out eventually.
Already skunked on all 10 lots in Heritage’s auction this week. It’s very frustrating - I put in strong retail bids at or above recent auction prices. I generally play in the $50 - $1,000 range in barbers, Peace, $2.5 Indians and Type.
It’s just too hard for me to physiologically jump 20%+ on relatively common material from prices 6-12mos ago. Guess I won’t be much of a buyer until the market stabilizes.
I’ve been spending more and more time the past few week exploring my nascent interest in certain world coin series…
5 years ago I was buying these sleeper dates…1842, 1846 Small Letters, 1849, 1850, 1858, 1859, 1860 $5’s
There was zero competition, just couldn’t find the coins. Now three people are bidding, no wonder the prices are up. People appreciate there rare Philly days a bit more!
Latin American Collection
From what I can see there were 11 bidders so there was a lot of interest in this coin.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
The big question would be how many were in the zone so to speak!
Looks like bidder 9 was very busy, bidder 11 came in at $3200 and bidder 10 took one shot at $3400 but lost to bidder 11 at that price. Too bad #10 didn't do $3401. Bidders 7-11 were all at $2500 or more.
Successful BST with drddm, BustDMs, Pnies20, lkeigwin, pursuitofliberty, Bullsitter, felinfoel, SPalladino
$5 Type Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/u-s-coins/type-sets/half-eagle-type-set-circulation-strikes-1795-1929/album/344192
CBH Set https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/everyman-collections/everyman-half-dollars/everyman-capped-bust-half-dollars-1807-1839/album/345572
I use my wife's selling history as a way to gage the coin market we dabble in (DE's).
When she sells a number of coins rather quickly, the market is strong and rising. When her sales slow down the market is starting to weaken.
Right now, I can say with no hesitation that I will have to ask her to find out what's going on.
Spoke to the MRS.... WE deal in low end junk / generics $20 DE's and from her perspective the market is very quiet.
She said the market was very strong for most of the year but went very quiet in the last 30 days. Perhaps more of a reflection on gold bullion sentiment than coins? Most coins we deal in are gold proxies.
My buying has caught up to our sales so we are in balance.
with that said, I'm still searching for interesting coins but as of now more price conscious with respect to buying.
Spoke to the MRS.... WE deal in low end junk / generics $20 DE's and from her perspective the market is very quiet.
She said the market was very strong for most of the year but went very quiet in the last 30 days. Perhaps more of a reflection on gold bullion sentiment than coins? Most coins we deal in are gold proxies.
My buying has caught up to our sales so we are in balance.
with that said, I'm still searching for interesting coins but as of now more price conscious with respect to buying.
From my experience...this is the slowest time of year for the bay!
It is possible that the difference in stacks BP vs Ians bp created that price diff. I know in the end that the price paid is the price paid by buyer, but when people bid, Its somewhat secondary until they get to figuring 10% vs 20%
A coin I just repurchased out of stacks auction for my self. I sold in 2005 for 28k direct sale. It just sold at stacks for my 24 k bid hammer, with me buying at 28.8k. So depending on what deal this consignor had, most likely he has lost on holding this one for 15years. (I know for fact, its the same consignor that has owned it all this time). Basically it cost me 800.00 to get it back. , had it been at GC , would have been a little cheaper for me possibly due to 10% vs 20%, and may have netted the consignor the same or a little more possibly.
even though i sold most of my stuff, I always said I buy it back if it ever came up, well finally it did after all that time. it was a must buy (personally for me) just to keep.
Actually that 01-S quarter you mentioned sold for almost a thousand less than your coin with the buyers premium!
It sold for 32K in 2013 and 2 months later for 47k!
I would have paid that 10 years ago. Every 58-P piece of gold from $3 and up is going to be contested by hungry date-specialists who know seeing a wholesome piece of each or any of those denominations once a year.
Fairmont may have made me a statistical liar
I think any market perception should be viewed from both macro and micro perspectives.
Errors are going nuts because of true-blue enthusiasts.
MS62 84-CC's have already stopped going nuts (though retail mass-marketing guppies are going to remain very excited until........?
Every un-FUBAR pre-Liberty gold issue will become less and less available. Until the 12th of Never and beyond.
Unc Details, lightly-cleaned Heraldic $10's may offer satisfactions not previously appreciated by Type collectors.
Non-CAC MS68 Morgans will be $2500 by the end of 2022.
My biggest takeaway is that much of the pre-COVID collector-investor market is irrelevant. There are amounts of discretionary cash floating about previously unencountered since the pre-2008 run-up and now exceeding that opportunity-seeking pool of "float" by multiples.
Beyond any marquee value for coins as a desirable entity signifying a glittering object of virtue for the casual gazillionaire, consider throwing out of your calculations every coin sold for over $1,000,000 in the last two years.
There is no "they" there. Each is an event, not a coin, no matter how many tens of millions of dollars the same purchaser may have spent elsewhere.
Remember that you just watched the tail-end of the total collapse of the 1804 $1 market, 1913 nickels flat-lined half a decade ago, and it really doesn't matter if the train-wreck Unc Paquet $20 is worth another half-mil this week.