1st CAC submission !!! Box of 20 rattlers !!!

robkool · June 19, 2021 8:53PM

My first ever CAC submission !!! 50/50 results .

DelawareDoons · June 19, 2021 9:06PM

CAC is tough. Going 50% is a decent sub.

coinbuf · June 19, 2021 9:20PM

Congrats, on the new beans.

morgandollar1878 · June 19, 2021 9:26PM

Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

robkool · June 19, 2021 9:31PM

Thank you !!!

Pickwickjr · June 20, 2021 3:40AM

Congratulation
I think that’s an excellent turn out.

I’ve had my share of bad turn outs in the beginning. It definitely helped me scrutinize coins even more which has helped. Also if your local I suggest doing a walk-through . JA is a great person to talk with. He’s top notch and treats you like a good friend. 👍🏻
Looking forward to my next walk-through

jmlanzaf · June 20, 2021 3:47AM

Not meaning to be an ass, but JA has said that the CAC success rate is 60%.

ricko · June 20, 2021 4:12AM

Great results on a large submission... even a gold bean.... Well done! Cheers, RickO

Catbert · June 20, 2021 4:21AM

Too bad the gold did not pass. It would have been valuable to understand why. Attach a note next time to your submission requesting to learn from rejections.

Walkerguy21D · June 20, 2021 5:10AM

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

jonruns · June 20, 2021 5:24AM

Excellent result! Congrats!

If you analyze can you see why certain ones passed and others didn't?

PQueue · June 20, 2021 5:37AM

Mediocre results, especially considering some very common dates that did not CAC.

morgandollar1878 · June 20, 2021 6:52AM

@Walkerguy21D said:

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

Rattlers are pretty picked over for PQ or under graded coins. I think CAC is getting tougher also, I have seen some really nice coins not get a sticker.

jmlanzaf · June 20, 2021 8:10AM

@morgandollar1878 said:

@Walkerguy21D said:

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

Rattlers are pretty picked over for PQ or under graded coins. I think CAC is getting tougher also, I have seen some really nice coins not get a sticker.

This is an important point. People sometimes assume old holders always upgrade. The fact is that people have been upgrading them for 25 years. I think this submission sort of proves the point. Half of the coins are "C" coins by current standards while JA himself has said that 60 to 70% of coins receive CAC.

Desert Moon · June 20, 2021 8:17AM

@jmlanzaf said:
Not meaning to be an ass, but JA has said that the CAC success rate is 60%.

I recall 40%, where is your source for this info?

Best, SH

DelawareDoons · June 20, 2021 8:20AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@morgandollar1878 said:

@Walkerguy21D said:

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

Rattlers are pretty picked over for PQ or under graded coins. I think CAC is getting tougher also, I have seen some really nice coins not get a sticker.

This is an important point. People sometimes assume old holders always upgrade. The fact is that people have been upgrading them for 25 years. I think this submission sort of proves the point. Half of the coins are "C" coins by current standards while JA himself has said that 60 to 70% of coins receive CAC.

I really doubt that 60% to 70% number from what I've seen. Allowing friends to submit with me, here's my raw numbers (not refined for TPG, holder age, or coin type). I would say 40ish coins are resubmissions/duplicates, and I've personally owned about half of these coins, and on that half, I hit closer to 70%-80% sticker rate. Just saying, the general public isn't CACing coins at a 60%+ rate. Maybe 40%. And yes, I do have this data more broken down, and no, I won't share it, sorry.

EDIT: I would consider opening up the data set to anybody who has a substantial amount of data to contribute to it as an ongoing project. Say, minimum 200 coins. PM me if you're interested.

robkool · June 20, 2021 8:49AM

I think a walkthrough on my next ones are in order. I would like to meet JA himself, and try to understand the concept more, Just like "meet the experts" that PCGS does at the shows, especially on the gold. Surprised none of those had passed. I'm in So. Cal (west coast). So I don't know if meeting JA is possible or a walkthrough in the near future ???

chesterb · June 20, 2021 8:55AM

@robkool said:
I think a walkthrough on my next ones are in order. I would like to meet JA himself, and try to understand the concept more, Just like "meet the experts" that PCGS does at the shows, especially on the gold. Surprised none of those had passed. I'm in So. Cal (west coast). So I don't know if meeting JA is possible or a walkthrough in the near future ???

You may want to call in advance. I’ve done walkthroughs and there are no meet and greets involved other than the office staff, although, I never specifically asked to meet anyone. It’s a quick handoff process with an hour or two of waiting.

jmlanzaf · June 20, 2021 8:55AM

@spacehayduke said:

@jmlanzaf said:
Not meaning to be an ass, but JA has said that the CAC success rate is 60%.

I recall 40%, where is your source for this info?

Best, SH

Is in that podcast interview.

jmlanzaf · June 20, 2021 9:00AM

@DelawareDoons said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@morgandollar1878 said:

@Walkerguy21D said:

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

Rattlers are pretty picked over for PQ or under graded coins. I think CAC is getting tougher also, I have seen some really nice coins not get a sticker.

This is an important point. People sometimes assume old holders always upgrade. The fact is that people have been upgrading them for 25 years. I think this submission sort of proves the point. Half of the coins are "C" coins by current standards while JA himself has said that 60 to 70% of coins receive CAC.

I really doubt that 60% to 70% number from what I've seen. Allowing friends to submit with me, here's my raw numbers (not refined for TPG, holder age, or coin type). I would say 40ish coins are resubmissions/duplicates, and I've personally owned about half of these coins, and on that half, I hit closer to 70%-80% sticker rate. Just saying, the general public isn't CACing coins at a 60%+ rate. Maybe 40%. And yes, I do have this data more broken down, and no, I won't share it, sorry.

EDIT: I would consider opening up the data set to anybody who has a substantial amount of data to contribute to it as an ongoing project. Say, minimum 200 coins. PM me if you're interested.

The CAC site itself says that they estimate 10% of coins are C coins but 50% of coins in the marketplace.

In his podcast interview, I believe he said only 30% fail.

Your results, by the way are close to 60%

tradedollarnut · June 20, 2021 9:06AM

If you bought the coins just because they were in rattlers, then that’s a decent result. If you bought them because you thought they were PQ and in rattlers then you need to fine tune your eye by figuring out why half didn’t pass muster.

LukeMarshall · June 20, 2021 9:44AM

Is that 1881s a white label rattler or just faded?

DelawareDoons · June 20, 2021 9:49AM

@LukeMarshall said:
Is that 1881s a white label rattler or just faded?

Faded/sunbleached. All whites start with 108, but remember that not all 108s are whites.

LukeMarshall · June 20, 2021 9:52AM

@DelawareDoons thanks for the info!

DelawareDoons · June 20, 2021 9:59AM

@jmlanzaf said:

@DelawareDoons said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@morgandollar1878 said:

@Walkerguy21D said:

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

Rattlers are pretty picked over for PQ or under graded coins. I think CAC is getting tougher also, I have seen some really nice coins not get a sticker.

This is an important point. People sometimes assume old holders always upgrade. The fact is that people have been upgrading them for 25 years. I think this submission sort of proves the point. Half of the coins are "C" coins by current standards while JA himself has said that 60 to 70% of coins receive CAC.

I really doubt that 60% to 70% number from what I've seen. Allowing friends to submit with me, here's my raw numbers (not refined for TPG, holder age, or coin type). I would say 40ish coins are resubmissions/duplicates, and I've personally owned about half of these coins, and on that half, I hit closer to 70%-80% sticker rate. Just saying, the general public isn't CACing coins at a 60%+ rate. Maybe 40%. And yes, I do have this data more broken down, and no, I won't share it, sorry.

EDIT: I would consider opening up the data set to anybody who has a substantial amount of data to contribute to it as an ongoing project. Say, minimum 200 coins. PM me if you're interested.

The CAC site itself says that they estimate 10% of coins are C coins but 50% of coins in the marketplace.

In his podcast interview, I believe he said only 30% fail.

Your results, by the way are close to 60%

Yeah they are close to 60%, but you have to remember that selection bias is coming into play here. I told you the stuff that I pick and send in stickers at a 70% to 80% rate. I have an excellent eye for finding PQ coins, definitely above the average. That skews the numbers.

If I account for 675 of these at 70%, that's 473/735 stickers for me meaning my friends have gone 262/606 on attempts, 43.2%. I think most of them would be the first to tell you that I have a professional numismatist level skill set at least when it comes to picking coins for grading/CAC.

savitale · June 20, 2021 10:07AM

Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

Overgraded
Not original surfaces, cleaned for example
Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

cheezhed · June 20, 2021 10:14AM

A gold on your first submission is gratifying.

Pickwickjr · June 20, 2021 12:02PM

@chesterb said:

@robkool said:
I think a walkthrough on my next ones are in order. I would like to meet JA himself, and try to understand the concept more, Just like "meet the experts" that PCGS does at the shows, especially on the gold. Surprised none of those had passed. I'm in So. Cal (west coast). So I don't know if meeting JA is possible or a walkthrough in the near future ???

You may want to call in advance. I’ve done walkthroughs and there are no meet and greets involved other than the office staff, although, I never specifically asked to meet anyone. It’s a quick handoff process with an hour or two of waiting.

Next time just ask if John is available. I have never been told no.

panexpoguy · June 20, 2021 12:08PM

That is a good first submission. While there are a number of reasons why a coin doesn’t pass, I would carefully look over the ones that didn’t and specifically look for PVC contamination. It is a common issue with rattlers.

If you carefully compare like coins that passed and didn’t, then you start to see differences. My first submission was right around 50%. Nowadays if my submission is all coins that I feel are strong, my green rate is 80% and over the last 50 coins submitted, 11 have gold stickered. There is no better educational ROI in the hobby than studying your own CAC results.

WAYNEAS · June 20, 2021 12:38PM

To me you hit the lottery with your submissions.
You have to have a very keen eye to get these results.
Keep up the good work.
Wayne

DelawareDoons · June 20, 2021 1:53PM

@panexpoguy said:
That is a good first submission. While there are a number of reasons why a coin doesn’t pass, I would carefully look over the ones that didn’t and specifically look for PVC contamination. It is a common issue with rattlers.

If you carefully compare like coins that passed and didn’t, then you start to see differences. My first submission was right around 50%. Nowadays if my submission is all coins that I feel are strong, my green rate is 80% and over the last 50 coins submitted, 11 have gold stickered. There is no better educational ROI in the hobby than studying your own CAC results.

JA red stickers anything with PVC. Literally a red sticker with a handwritten "PVC" on it.

chesterb · June 20, 2021 1:56PM

@DelawareDoons said:

@panexpoguy said:
That is a good first submission. While there are a number of reasons why a coin doesn’t pass, I would carefully look over the ones that didn’t and specifically look for PVC contamination. It is a common issue with rattlers.

If you carefully compare like coins that passed and didn’t, then you start to see differences. My first submission was right around 50%. Nowadays if my submission is all coins that I feel are strong, my green rate is 80% and over the last 50 coins submitted, 11 have gold stickered. There is no better educational ROI in the hobby than studying your own CAC results.

JA red stickers anything with PVC. Literally a red sticker with a handwritten "PVC" on it.

I have had the unfortune of being given a red pvc sticker too lol

panexpoguy · June 20, 2021 4:00PM

@DelawareDoons said:

@panexpoguy said:
That is a good first submission. While there are a number of reasons why a coin doesn’t pass, I would carefully look over the ones that didn’t and specifically look for PVC contamination. It is a common issue with rattlers.

If you carefully compare like coins that passed and didn’t, then you start to see differences. My first submission was right around 50%. Nowadays if my submission is all coins that I feel are strong, my green rate is 80% and over the last 50 coins submitted, 11 have gold stickered. There is no better educational ROI in the hobby than studying your own CAC results.

JA red stickers anything with PVC. Literally a red sticker with a handwritten "PVC" on it.

Not so much since the pandemic. At least not on my two submissIons. Used to see them previously. Not sure who could confirm if it is done consistently.

DelawareDoons · June 20, 2021 5:51PM

@panexpoguy said:

@DelawareDoons said:

@panexpoguy said:
That is a good first submission. While there are a number of reasons why a coin doesn’t pass, I would carefully look over the ones that didn’t and specifically look for PVC contamination. It is a common issue with rattlers.

If you carefully compare like coins that passed and didn’t, then you start to see differences. My first submission was right around 50%. Nowadays if my submission is all coins that I feel are strong, my green rate is 80% and over the last 50 coins submitted, 11 have gold stickered. There is no better educational ROI in the hobby than studying your own CAC results.

JA red stickers anything with PVC. Literally a red sticker with a handwritten "PVC" on it.

Not so much since the pandemic. At least not on my two submissIons. Used to see them previously. Not sure who could confirm if it is done consistently.

I can. I have had a few recently. Only one of my coins but two or three others. Mostly rattlers.

chesterb · June 20, 2021 5:53PM

@panexpoguy said:

@DelawareDoons said:

@panexpoguy said:
That is a good first submission. While there are a number of reasons why a coin doesn’t pass, I would carefully look over the ones that didn’t and specifically look for PVC contamination. It is a common issue with rattlers.

If you carefully compare like coins that passed and didn’t, then you start to see differences. My first submission was right around 50%. Nowadays if my submission is all coins that I feel are strong, my green rate is 80% and over the last 50 coins submitted, 11 have gold stickered. There is no better educational ROI in the hobby than studying your own CAC results.

JA red stickers anything with PVC. Literally a red sticker with a handwritten "PVC" on it.

Not so much since the pandemic. At least not on my two submissIons. Used to see them previously. Not sure who could confirm if it is done consistently.

I had one a couple weeks ago.

MFeld · June 20, 2021 6:15PM

@WAYNEAS said:
To me you hit the lottery with your submissions.
You have to have a very keen eye to get these results.
Keep up the good work.
Wayne

I disagree. As has already been posted by others, that’s not a particularly high success rate.

cameonut2011 · June 20, 2021 6:19PM

@spacehayduke said:

@jmlanzaf said:
Not meaning to be an ass, but JA has said that the CAC success rate is 60%.

I recall 40%, where is your source for this info?

Best, SH

The 40% was initially. I heard it is going down as the pool of coins that CAC has never seen/rejected gets much smaller after 14 years.

cameonut2011 · June 20, 2021 6:21PM

@savitale said:
Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

Overgraded

Not original surfaces, cleaned for example

Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

Low end for the grade but accurately graded coins.

cameonut2011 · June 20, 2021 6:25PM

Do you have close up images of the coins that failed to sticker?

jkrk · June 20, 2021 7:50PM

@cameonut2011 said:

@savitale said:
Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

Overgraded

Not original surfaces, cleaned for example

Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

Low end for the grade but accurately graded coins.

Could the coin be accurately graded but not a high end coin for the grade?

savitale · June 20, 2021 8:01PM

@cameonut2011 said:

@savitale said:
Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

Overgraded

Not original surfaces, cleaned for example

Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

Low end for the grade but accurately graded coins.

Yes, if one is grading to one decimal point then MS64.5 to MS64.9 coins will get an MS65 label but no sticker. MS65.0 to MS65.4 coins will get an MS65 label and a sticker (assuming #2 and #3 are OK). At least that is what I understand.

cameonut2011 · June 20, 2021 10:40PM

@savitale said:

@cameonut2011 said:

@savitale said:
Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

Overgraded

Not original surfaces, cleaned for example

Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

Low end for the grade but accurately graded coins.

Yes, if one is grading to one decimal point then MS64.5 to MS64.9 coins will get an MS65 label but no sticker. MS65.0 to MS65.4 coins will get an MS65 label and a sticker (assuming #2 and #3 are OK). At least that is what I understand.

MS65.0-MS65.3 coins won’t sticker at a label grade of MS65 even if otherwise wholesome. These are the “C” coins. The “B” coins (MS65.4-MS65.5 in a 65 holder) and “A” coins (MS65.6-MS66.3 in a 65 holder) get green stickers. A 66.4 or 66.5 or better in a 65 holder is supposedly gold sticker range.

Problem coins and overgraded coins (64.9 or lower in a 65 holder) are “D” and “F” coins and like “C” coins are rejected even though the “C” may be problem free and accurately graded. That is one of the reasons there is frustration by many towards those that use CAC as a grading service. It is not. Sometimes this approach results in throwing out the baby with the bath water so to speak.

Rubicon · June 21, 2021 1:40AM

I think if the collector is submitting truly high end picky coins 80-95% should green sticker. .

Rubicon · June 21, 2021 4:54AM

@robkool said:
My first ever CAC submission !!! 50/50 results .

Can you please send a clear picture of your gold bean image is blurred

skier07 · June 21, 2021 8:05AM

@tradedollarnut said:
If you bought the coins just because they were in rattlers, then that’s a decent result. If you bought them because you thought they were PQ and in rattlers then you need to fine tune your eye by figuring out why half didn’t pass muster.

This

BryceM · June 21, 2021 8:49AM

There’s three types of coins still in rattlers - those not worthy of a crackout or regrade, those simply off the market for a few decades, and those holding really nice coins with compelling reasons to leave them alone (red copper, un-boinked gold, gold CAC sticker. etc.)

Unfortunately there are way more in the first group than the others. Stumble into an intact old collection all in rattlers and people get all excited about it. Even then, it’s usually only a percentage of those that have untapped potential.

robkool · June 21, 2021 10:55AM

@Rubicon said:

@robkool said:
My first ever CAC submission !!! 50/50 results .

Can you please send a clear picture of your gold bean image is blurred

messydesk · June 21, 2021 9:40PM

So the 1906 5c is a solid MS60? Now you almost have to crack it out to save the coin the embarrassment of being solid for MS-grade-of-death.

robkool · June 22, 2021 11:02AM

@messydesk said:
So the 1906 5c is a solid MS60? Now you almost have to crack it out to save the coin the embarrassment of being solid for MS-grade-of-death.

There are not a lot of MS60 grades out there, so I went ahead and included it. LOL !!!

TomB · June 22, 2021 11:34AM

My recollection of published CAC sticker rate is about 45%, but that was from a couple/few years ago. It may have drifted upward or downward in the intervening years, but I doubt it moved all that much.

A 50% success rate should be viewed as "okay" in my opinion, but 50% on an all rattler submission would be a disappointment, in my eyes. The rattlers have been around forever and for many years there was no pressure to keep them intact, so quite a few of the really nice coins were simply cracked out and regraded. Thus, I believe the pool of truly superb rattlers has shrunk, in terms of absolute numbers and rattler percentage, over the years. Most coins in rattlers were "fine" by the grading standards of the day and of today, but the more expensive ones (or ones with a higher spread to the next grade) were also often targeted for regrade.

The last two groups of rattlers, again in my opinion, are those that simply weren't worth the time, energy, resources to have regraded and those that had a problem either surface later or simply get recognized after certification. The problem coins stay in rattlers as a permanent resting place while the coins "not worth it" often stay there, too, but usually cost a bit more to obtain because they are recognized as being nice. It is this last group of rattlers (nice coins, but not worth regrading) that more often than not receive the gold sticker.

1st CAC submission !!! Box of 20 rattlers !!!

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