1st CAC submission !!! Box of 20 rattlers !!!

Congratulation
I think that’s an excellent turn out.

I’ve had my share of bad turn outs in the beginning. It definitely helped me scrutinize coins even more which has helped. Also if your local I suggest doing a walk-through . JA is a great person to talk with. He’s top notch and treats you like a good friend. 👍🏻
Looking forward to my next walk-through

Great results on a large submission... even a gold bean.... Well done! Cheers, RickO

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

Mediocre results, especially considering some very common dates that did not CAC.

@morgandollar1878 said:

@Walkerguy21D said:

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

Rattlers are pretty picked over for PQ or under graded coins. I think CAC is getting tougher also, I have seen some really nice coins not get a sticker.

This is an important point. People sometimes assume old holders always upgrade. The fact is that people have been upgrading them for 25 years. I think this submission sort of proves the point. Half of the coins are "C" coins by current standards while JA himself has said that 60 to 70% of coins receive CAC.

@robkool said:
I think a walkthrough on my next ones are in order. I would like to meet JA himself, and try to understand the concept more, Just like "meet the experts" that PCGS does at the shows, especially on the gold. Surprised none of those had passed. I'm in So. Cal (west coast). So I don't know if meeting JA is possible or a walkthrough in the near future ???

You may want to call in advance. I’ve done walkthroughs and there are no meet and greets involved other than the office staff, although, I never specifically asked to meet anyone. It’s a quick handoff process with an hour or two of waiting.

@DelawareDoons said:

@jmlanzaf said:

@morgandollar1878 said:

@Walkerguy21D said:

@morgandollar1878 said:
Nine greens and one gold out of twenty. CAC is pretty tough which is a good thing but sometimes discouraging, so 50% is pretty good.

Are they getting tougher, or is this pretty standard?
The reason I ask is that these are all in rattlers, supposedly from the days of more conservative grading, and I know this OP has a good eye. With those two factors, I would have assumed an even higher success rate. But that’s likely due to my own inexperience/ignorance.

Rattlers are pretty picked over for PQ or under graded coins. I think CAC is getting tougher also, I have seen some really nice coins not get a sticker.

This is an important point. People sometimes assume old holders always upgrade. The fact is that people have been upgrading them for 25 years. I think this submission sort of proves the point. Half of the coins are "C" coins by current standards while JA himself has said that 60 to 70% of coins receive CAC.

I really doubt that 60% to 70% number from what I've seen. Allowing friends to submit with me, here's my raw numbers (not refined for TPG, holder age, or coin type). I would say 40ish coins are resubmissions/duplicates, and I've personally owned about half of these coins, and on that half, I hit closer to 70%-80% sticker rate. Just saying, the general public isn't CACing coins at a 60%+ rate. Maybe 40%. And yes, I do have this data more broken down, and no, I won't share it, sorry.

EDIT: I would consider opening up the data set to anybody who has a substantial amount of data to contribute to it as an ongoing project. Say, minimum 200 coins. PM me if you're interested.

The CAC site itself says that they estimate 10% of coins are C coins but 50% of coins in the marketplace.

In his podcast interview, I believe he said only 30% fail.

Your results, by the way are close to 60%

Is that 1881s a white label rattler or just faded?

@DelawareDoons thanks for the info!

Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

1. Overgraded
2. Not original surfaces, cleaned for example
3. Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

@chesterb said:

@robkool said:
I think a walkthrough on my next ones are in order. I would like to meet JA himself, and try to understand the concept more, Just like "meet the experts" that PCGS does at the shows, especially on the gold. Surprised none of those had passed. I'm in So. Cal (west coast). So I don't know if meeting JA is possible or a walkthrough in the near future ???

You may want to call in advance. I’ve done walkthroughs and there are no meet and greets involved other than the office staff, although, I never specifically asked to meet anyone. It’s a quick handoff process with an hour or two of waiting.

Next time just ask if John is available. I have never been told no.

To me you hit the lottery with your submissions.
You have to have a very keen eye to get these results.
Keep up the good work.
Wayne

@DelawareDoons said:

@panexpoguy said:
That is a good first submission. While there are a number of reasons why a coin doesn’t pass, I would carefully look over the ones that didn’t and specifically look for PVC contamination. It is a common issue with rattlers.

If you carefully compare like coins that passed and didn’t, then you start to see differences. My first submission was right around 50%. Nowadays if my submission is all coins that I feel are strong, my green rate is 80% and over the last 50 coins submitted, 11 have gold stickered. There is no better educational ROI in the hobby than studying your own CAC results.

JA red stickers anything with PVC. Literally a red sticker with a handwritten "PVC" on it.

I have had the unfortune of being given a red pvc sticker too lol

@panexpoguy said:

@DelawareDoons said:

@panexpoguy said:
That is a good first submission. While there are a number of reasons why a coin doesn’t pass, I would carefully look over the ones that didn’t and specifically look for PVC contamination. It is a common issue with rattlers.

If you carefully compare like coins that passed and didn’t, then you start to see differences. My first submission was right around 50%. Nowadays if my submission is all coins that I feel are strong, my green rate is 80% and over the last 50 coins submitted, 11 have gold stickered. There is no better educational ROI in the hobby than studying your own CAC results.

JA red stickers anything with PVC. Literally a red sticker with a handwritten "PVC" on it.

Not so much since the pandemic. At least not on my two submissIons. Used to see them previously. Not sure who could confirm if it is done consistently.

I can. I have had a few recently. Only one of my coins but two or three others. Mostly rattlers.

@savitale said:
Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

1. Overgraded
2. Not original surfaces, cleaned for example
3. Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

4. Low end for the grade but accurately graded coins.

@cameonut2011 said:

@savitale said:
Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

1. Overgraded
2. Not original surfaces, cleaned for example
3. Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

4. Low end for the grade but accurately graded coins.

Could the coin be accurately graded but not a high end coin for the grade?

@savitale said:

@cameonut2011 said:

@savitale said:
Interesting data. As I understand it, there are basically 3 reasons for not getting a sticker:

1. Overgraded
2. Not original surfaces, cleaned for example
3. Below average eye appeal

Can you tell from this assemblage why some were denied stickers?

4. Low end for the grade but accurately graded coins.

Yes, if one is grading to one decimal point then MS64.5 to MS64.9 coins will get an MS65 label but no sticker. MS65.0 to MS65.4 coins will get an MS65 label and a sticker (assuming #2 and #3 are OK). At least that is what I understand.

MS65.0-MS65.3 coins won’t sticker at a label grade of MS65 even if otherwise wholesome. These are the “C” coins. The “B” coins (MS65.4-MS65.5 in a 65 holder) and “A” coins (MS65.6-MS66.3 in a 65 holder) get green stickers. A 66.4 or 66.5 or better in a 65 holder is supposedly gold sticker range.

Problem coins and overgraded coins (64.9 or lower in a 65 holder) are “D” and “F” coins and like “C” coins are rejected even though the “C” may be problem free and accurately graded. That is one of the reasons there is frustration by many towards those that use CAC as a grading service. It is not. Sometimes this approach results in throwing out the baby with the bath water so to speak.

There’s three types of coins still in rattlers - those not worthy of a crackout or regrade, those simply off the market for a few decades, and those holding really nice coins with compelling reasons to leave them alone (red copper, un-boinked gold, gold CAC sticker. etc.)

Unfortunately there are way more in the first group than the others. Stumble into an intact old collection all in rattlers and people get all excited about it. Even then, it’s usually only a percentage of those that have untapped potential.

My recollection of published CAC sticker rate is about 45%, but that was from a couple/few years ago. It may have drifted upward or downward in the intervening years, but I doubt it moved all that much.

A 50% success rate should be viewed as "okay" in my opinion, but 50% on an all rattler submission would be a disappointment, in my eyes. The rattlers have been around forever and for many years there was no pressure to keep them intact, so quite a few of the really nice coins were simply cracked out and regraded. Thus, I believe the pool of truly superb rattlers has shrunk, in terms of absolute numbers and rattler percentage, over the years. Most coins in rattlers were "fine" by the grading standards of the day and of today, but the more expensive ones (or ones with a higher spread to the next grade) were also often targeted for regrade.

The last two groups of rattlers, again in my opinion, are those that simply weren't worth the time, energy, resources to have regraded and those that had a problem either surface later or simply get recognized after certification. The problem coins stay in rattlers as a permanent resting place while the coins "not worth it" often stay there, too, but usually cost a bit more to obtain because they are recognized as being nice. It is this last group of rattlers (nice coins, but not worth regrading) that more often than not receive the gold sticker.