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Grade Poppage Thread (Through-Date Estimation)

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  • rexvosrexvos Posts: 3,274 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Besides logging times being awful your main hope is that it is just one or two problem orders keeping the CTD stagnant. At least that is what I tell myself. I have an express to send but I have not been in a hurry to send because, first in first out does not exist in the PSA universe. I could send a month from now and possibly get it back sooner than I did if I send today. That is another frustration, no rhyme or reason. I received an ultra modern back a month ago that was sent in the same box as a 7 card economy that is still in grading. How is this an acceptable practice ?

    Looking for FB HOF Rookies
  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    it's not. every regular and express order i have in since 1/15 has experienced these massive delays.

    and the suez canal thought it had it bad!

  • Copyboy1Copyboy1 Posts: 468 ✭✭✭✭

    My 55-card Value sub that arrived on 06/23/20 and was entered on 08/18/20 moved from Assembly to QA1 on Thursday and to QA2 on Sunday.

    Soooooo close...

  • shawthershawther Posts: 284 ✭✭✭

    Probably not as close as you’d think.

  • OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 129 ✭✭✭
    edited March 29, 2021 1:10PM

    @rexvos said:
    Besides logging times being awful your main hope is that it is just one or two problem orders keeping the CTD stagnant.

    Essentially, CTD provides a nanoscopic view of throughput transparency.

    When, for example, the last 2 (or 200? who knows) problem Economy orders were finally 'completed' 209 days after being entered (Sep 1 to Mar 29), and folks in this forum report at least one Economy orders being completed after just 100 days (1 of 2 or 1 of 200?), for the very same entered date -- you're left with very little on which to gauge the timing of orders in process, or the potential turnaround of future submissions.

  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide said:

    @rexvos said:
    Besides logging times being awful your main hope is that it is just one or two problem orders keeping the CTD stagnant.

    Essentially, CTD provides a nanoscopic view of throughput transparency.

    When, for example, the last 2 (or 200? who knows) problem Economy orders were finally 'completed' 209 days after being entered (Sep 1 to Mar 29), and folks in this forum report at least one Economy orders being completed after just 100 days, for the very same entered date -- you're left with very little on which to gauge the timing of orders in process, or the potential turnaround of future submissions.

    i remember someone saying this a lil while back...slipping my mind at the moment, though.

  • OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 129 ✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:
    i remember someone saying this a lil while back...slipping my mind at the moment, though.

    "One can ascend to a higher development only by bringing rhythm and repetition into one's life." :smiley:

  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OneDaysRide said:

    @blurryface said:
    i remember someone saying this a lil while back...slipping my mind at the moment, though.

    "One can ascend to a higher development only by bringing rhythm and repetition into one's life." :smiley:

    i prefer rudolph reindeer w his nose so bright. even santa picked him to guide his sleigh.

  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    and say what ya want. but at least the meatloaf graph was 100% accurate! :)

  • PROMETHIUS88PROMETHIUS88 Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Copyboy1 said:
    My 55-card Value sub that arrived on 06/23/20 and was entered on 08/18/20 moved from Assembly to QA1 on Thursday and to QA2 on Sunday.

    Soooooo close...

    Had a value sub logged 8/3 go from QA1 yesterday morning to QA2 then grades popped late last night.

    Promethius881969@yahoo.com
  • Copyboy1Copyboy1 Posts: 468 ✭✭✭✭

    Grades popped today! (4 days in Assembly, 2 days in Q1 and 24hrs in Q2).

    Out of 55 subs (50 modern and 5 vintage):
    Five PSA 10s (including a 1993 Upper Deck 466 Michael Jordan)
    Nineteen PSA 9s
    A ton of 8.5s and 8s

    I notoriously overgrade my own cards, so I'm not super unhappy with the outcome. If only a few more of those 9s were 10s and a few of those 8.5s were 9s... I also had a 1950 Bowman Otto Graham rookie that I was sure was a 4 without an outside shot at a 5 that came back a 3. I'll have to reexamine that one when it arrives.

    Now just 3 vintage crossovers which arrived 09/18/20 (and likely won't meet my grade minimum anyway) and that's it. Done with sending raw cards to PSA.

  • KyserKyser Posts: 213 ✭✭✭

    What service level copyboy1?

  • Copyboy1Copyboy1 Posts: 468 ✭✭✭✭

    @Kyser said:
    What service level copyboy1?

    Value 2 Modern for the lot that just popped. Economy for the 3 crossovers I'm still waiting on.

  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:
    16 card, economy order

    arrived: 8/11/20
    logged: 9/4/20
    assembly: 3/26/21

    this is my oldest economy in the system. moved to assembly today. just providing for context and comparison purposes.

    moved straight to qa2 today.

    cards are still showing though. the list usually disappears from the screen right before popping.

    the $500 jack upcharge order still has not officially popped. which is crazy to me considering it used to happen in minutes after accepting the charges.

  • weaselpuppyweaselpuppy Posts: 218 ✭✭✭

    And my 9/4 economy continues to sit at Grading...Hope that means they are looking up how.much to upcharge me on the 84 OPC Yzerman....

  • Regular order (8 cards)
    Entered 2/9
    Grading 2/18
    QA2 3/19 and list disappeared shortly after
    Still in QA2 on 3/30....good times.

  • rexvosrexvos Posts: 3,274 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Had my oldest modern hit assembly sometime in the wee hours of the morning I am incredibly nervous about this sub. Hoping for upcharges as I have a lot of great cards in it.

    Looking for FB HOF Rookies
  • KyserKyser Posts: 213 ✭✭✭

    One of my regular orders entered 2-12 went to assembly last night also.

  • OneDaysRideOneDaysRide Posts: 129 ✭✭✭
    edited March 30, 2021 5:31AM

    The table below answers the musical question, 'How have CTD dates changed in the last 30 days". Note that the Completed-Through-Date report provides insight into little else but when the last 3?, 87?, or 212? submissions were finalized, thus completing all the orders for that particular Entered Day. Enjoy. :smiley:

  • I have 2 express orders that have been in A Check 2 for over a week now. This seems to be a common theme for others. those orders arrived on 2/4 and 2/8. Almost 2 months for "express" would be funny if it wasn't so sad... Is there any insight as to the reason for the holdup at QA2? Is it a shipping issue possibly, or hopefully, the upcharge pile? ;)

  • @curt557 said:
    I have 2 express orders that have been in A Check 2 for over a week now. This seems to be a common theme for others. those orders arrived on 2/4 and 2/8. Almost 2 months for "express" would be funny if it wasn't so sad... Is there any insight as to the reason for the holdup at QA2? Is it a shipping issue possibly, or hopefully, the upcharge pile? ;)

    I'm hoping for upcharges, but I think they are just backlogged.
    On another note, they just moved a Bulk order I sent in JULY into grading, so I have that going for me.

  • KyserKyser Posts: 213 ✭✭✭

    Are they short trustworthy people to process credit cards? I could send paypal, certified check, cash, crypto. I got some Canadian Tire bucks a friend sent me. Old gift cards from chrismases past. Whatever gets this show on the road.

  • My oldest one is a 3 card economy entered in 9/21/20.
    Still on Grading.

  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 30, 2021 3:31PM

    bust balls when it's time to bust balls,
    gotta give credit when credit is due.

    2 separate "super express orders"

    both arrived: 3/29/21
    entered: 3/30/21
    assembly: 3/30/21

    still time to drop the ball, i guess. but so far so impressed w/ these. was expecting at least a week or so to be entered.

  • envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    Whoa! Did you see this?
    ALERT: As of 3/30/2021 PSA has temporarily suspended the acceptance of most submissions. We are currently not accepting Value, Economy, Regular, or Express orders. We will take a tiered approach to reintroducing these service levels. Our goal is to bring all suspended service levels back by July 1, 2021.

  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @envoy982 said:
    Whoa! Did you see this?
    ALERT: As of 3/30/2021 PSA has temporarily suspended the acceptance of most submissions. We are currently not accepting Value, Economy, Regular, or Express orders. We will take a tiered approach to reintroducing these service levels. Our goal is to bring all suspended service levels back by July 1, 2021.

    yep. wonderful move, imo. separate thread was created.

  • envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @blurryface - I couldn’t agree more. Long time coming in my opinion. Unfortunate but needed. Not sure what I’ll do with the football cards I was going to grade as none of them warrant a $300 grading fee but I can sit on them for a while.

  • blurryfaceblurryface Posts: 5,136 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 31, 2021 12:00AM

    @blurryface said:
    how's the chart gonna change now that new levels are created?

    think it's:

    prime
    premier
    super premier
    etc.

    eta: pic added

    guess i was in beta back then? 🤔

    still don't know why it looked like that for a day or so...

  • mrburns443mrburns443 Posts: 203 ✭✭✭✭

    My economy order that was entered 9/4 moved to QA1 last night. Hopefully not too long now 🤞

  • jtomm2005jtomm2005 Posts: 50 ✭✭

    Well I guess I have more time to screen cards

    I cant say I was surprised by this move and can be an armchair QB and say it should have been done sooner but I wont. They made a business decision to raise prices probably weighing in as a factor of a deterrent and it backfired a bit. Owning up to that is more important to me timing is whatever. One thing i was focused on is the potential for other sites opening for actual grading and not just drop-off. That has been one thing I've not understood has happened sooner especially as they point out with the surge. Granted COVID may have pushed that to the back burner but I would like to think that pre-COVID it was at least brought up as it certainly doesn't seem like this "tsunami" was something that just came up

    Now Ill just sit back and await the releases of my 4 subs in the works and cross my fingers that some ground is made up

  • envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @blurryface said:

    @blurryface said:
    how's the chart gonna change now that new levels are created?

    think it's:

    prime
    premier
    super premier
    etc.

    guess i was in beta back then? 🤔

    still don't know why it looked like that for a day or so...

    I suppose it makes sense to get off a naming convention that implies a time-based service level vs a card-value service level.

    @jtomm2005 - I love the idea of regional grading centers. I suspect the Newport Beach post office would love it as well! They can find talent and expertise in other areas of the country, reduce shipping time and probably some costs. If they put something in the central US and open the NJ office as a grading office (currently I think it accepts but doesn't actually grade) and put an office near Steve so they can hand-deliver packs for authentication, what a timesaver.

    I am on a number of other forums and it's funny watching guys bash on PSA and saying that PSA is going to have to raise prices even more to make up for the "lost revenue" of not receiving cards from now til July. I was like, there was a backlog of >10MM cards in February. They said they received more shipments in 3 months than in the previous year and in the post yesterday, I think it said more in 3 days than the previous 3 months. They have so much work to do they aren't losing anything. Personally, I think they had to shut off the faucet and just take a step back. I can't imagine the stress some of their employees are under. I hope this helps.

  • thedutymon11thedutymon11 Posts: 633 ✭✭✭✭

    Morning,

    Well with 8 Subs sitting in R & I and one in Arrived, let's see if no Subs till July makes these turnarounds start drastically dropping!

    10527397    02/17/21        N/A Arrived 27  Value Modern (1972-2017) 20 card min
    

    22204496 10478355 01/20/21 03/29/21 N/A See Details 22 Value Modern (1972- 2017)
    22180512 10478295 01/19/21 03/18/21 N/A See Details 20 Value Vintage (1971-)
    22157840 10458692 01/06/21 03/04/21 N/A See Details 20 Value Modern (1972- 2017)
    22157821 10458614 01/06/21 03/04/21 N/A See Details 36 Value Vintage (1971-)
    22027958 10405226 11/24/20 12/01/20 N/A See Details 22 Value Vintage (1971-)
    22085052 10363151 10/21/20 01/20/21 N/A See Details 24 Monthly Special 17
    22075604 10348192 10/05/20 01/13/21 N/A See Details 88 Monthly Special 1
    21973288 10292632 08/13/20 10/16/20 N/A See Details 20 Monthly Special 1

    YeeHaw!

    Neil

  • jtomm2005jtomm2005 Posts: 50 ✭✭

    @envoy982 said:

    @blurryface said:

    @blurryface said:
    how's the chart gonna change now that new levels are created?

    think it's:

    prime
    premier
    super premier
    etc.

    guess i was in beta back then? 🤔

    still don't know why it looked like that for a day or so...

    I suppose it makes sense to get off a naming convention that implies a time-based service level vs a card-value service level.

    @jtomm2005 - I love the idea of regional grading centers. I suspect the Newport Beach post office would love it as well! They can find talent and expertise in other areas of the country, reduce shipping time and probably some costs. If they put something in the central US and open the NJ office as a grading office (currently I think it accepts but doesn't actually grade) and put an office near Steve so they can hand-deliver packs for authentication, what a timesaver.

    I am on a number of other forums and it's funny watching guys bash on PSA and saying that PSA is going to have to raise prices even more to make up for the "lost revenue" of not receiving cards from now until July. I was like, there was a backlog of >10MM cards in February. They said they received more shipments in 3 months than in the previous year and in the post yesterday, I think it said more in 3 days than the previous 3 months. They have so much work to do they aren't losing anything. Personally, I think they had to shut off the faucet and just take a step back. I can't imagine the stress some of their employees are under. I hope this helps.

    @envoy982 I totally agree in regards to the misconception of a lost revenue stream and while someone please correct me if I'm mistaken, didn't BGS take a hit a few years back on their backlog with rumors about them going under?

    These newer companies will most likely gain some new business in the short run by those who want to send their cards to them during the hiatus, but as far as I'm seeing and hearing, I don't know if they will have the brand power that PSA has for the extra value placed on the graded card industry. I'm sure the same debate raged and has raged on just between BGS and PSA - I do agree with some posters that it would be nice to know what defect brought my card down from a 10 to a 9 or 9 to an 8 as it would not only help educate me as a customer but you know .... they DO have a ton of cards that need to be graded - how better to get the help you need with those willing to go thru the extreme level to screen their cards before sending.

    I know from a personal standpoint, I have learned a great deal about seeing where I missed when I did my screening and make a conscious effort to learn from my mistakes in hopes I'm getting or have gotten to that same page they are on to get bigger bang for my bucks spent sending cards off.

    I know they have posted for additional resources but what good does it to have talented individuals across the country who might help you by not being decentralized. For me being on the East Coast, I would love to have a regional center either in NJ or VA as I'm located in the Mid Atlantic. To me it makes better business sense in this day and age

    As far as bashing them, yup I definitely am not pleased with paying premium service pricing only to watch my level of service timeline fall into the lower tier but maybe this needed to happen to truly open their eyes.

  • weaselpuppyweaselpuppy Posts: 218 ✭✭✭

    How would stopping new cards arriving APR 1 speed up grading the umpty million already in the queue? Those cards that would have arrived APR 1 wouldn't even hit R and ID until June and grading until ,well who knows? Unless they can hire a massive amount of graders or go to an AI based grading, the backlog will be a very long slog for them and us.

  • envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @weaselpuppy said:
    How would stopping new cards arriving APR 1 speed up grading the umpty million already in the queue? Those cards that would have arrived APR 1 wouldn't even hit R and ID until June and grading until ,well who knows? Unless they can hire a massive amount of graders or go to an AI based grading, the backlog will be a very long slog for them and us.

    The only thing I can surmise is that there was an abundance of super express, express and regular orders that they were trying to stay caught up with. Removing those service levels will hopefully allow them to catch up on those (as of today they are 3 days behind on Walk through, 10 days behind on super express and 2+ months behind on regular). I also hope that it allows the folks in the shipping and receiving departments to focus on getting the backlog received into their warehouse and checked into the system without the continuous stream of new stuff arriving that has to be scanned and sorted for the walk through. For the next few months the only arrivals should be the $300 tier with the exception of stuff submitted and yet to arrive. That's my guess anyway...

  • maddux69maddux69 Posts: 2,130 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @weaselpuppy said:
    How would stopping new cards arriving APR 1 speed up grading the umpty million already in the queue? Those cards that would have arrived APR 1 wouldn't even hit R and ID until June and grading until ,well who knows? Unless they can hire a massive amount of graders or go to an AI based grading, the backlog will be a very long slog for them and us.

    Crosstraining for one. Suppose the employees that check in submissions are now freed up and can then move to help ship the massive backlog. As the process moves along I could see those who are in research and ID helping the QA team. The solution isn't just to hire more graders but to optimize your resources.

  • weaselpuppyweaselpuppy Posts: 218 ✭✭✭

    I agree, but the info from the PSA guy(s) on here is that the jobs are silo'd and not crosstrained. Maybe that changes?

    I don't think the backlog is in the shipping...the receiving and the grading is where the throughput goes to die, so what comes out of grading is essentially a steady stream of a similar rate to pre explosion/tsunami/avalanche until new graders get in the flow. It would make sense that there a re a fewer number of QA and especially shippers than graders and adding new shippers at least would be at a fractional rate of the graders,

    Research and ID is a very automatable and tech supportable expansion of throughput....scan to database w recognition etc...receiving is to a degree...it's eyes on cards, that's the bottleneck that is a lot less if nor completely un-crosstrainable to any significant degree.

    It's a pickle. You can't H1-B it. You can't temp staff it. You can't likely contract in outside talent. If you hire big in CA ( or NJ for that matter) good luck with your payroll/loaded cost and if you plan on burning that capacity through rate down with a RIF in a couple years...what will your unemployment tax boost be? What will the employment law, already incredibly unfriendly in CA, be a few years? Severance pay etc blah blah. Will PSA's competitive dominance survive this 100mph into a wall experience to a dead stop 2 years from now? There is no Card Grading Institute pumping out cheap Associated degree level grunt workers...

    It's a thorny, thorny problem.

  • envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @blurryface - WHOA! Another absolute banger. Congrats!!! You're having a good week.

  • ejguruejguru Posts: 617 ✭✭✭

    Congrats Blurry--nice hit!

    2 card regular submission (67 Sox Stickers)
    Arrived 2/26, entered today 3/31, straight to R/ID

    "...life is but a dream."

    Used to working on HOF SS Baseballs--Now just '67 Sox Stickers and anything Boston related.
  • envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @ejguru said:
    Congrats Blurry--nice hit!

    2 card regular submission (67 Sox Stickers)
    Arrived 2/26, entered today 3/31, straight to R/ID

    Well damn, my regular order arrived 2/24 is still waiting to be entered.

  • daltexdaltex Posts: 3,477 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @weaselpuppy said:
    How would stopping new cards arriving APR 1 speed up grading the umpty million already in the queue? Those cards that would have arrived APR 1 wouldn't even hit R and ID until June and grading until ,well who knows? Unless they can hire a massive amount of graders or go to an AI based grading, the backlog will be a very long slog for them and us.

    It might not, but surely there is a benefit from working through a backlog of 10 million cards while adding only 10 thousand rather than 20 million in this quarter. Yes, the Value order you sent on 28 March will still take (almost) as long, but if they reopen some of the Value tiers on 1 October, those should process much more quickly.

  • gemintgemint Posts: 6,066 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Part of the problem is storage and insuring inventory. It makes sense for PSA to slam on the brakes.

  • swish54swish54 Posts: 687 ✭✭✭✭

    @weaselpuppy said:
    How would stopping new cards arriving APR 1 speed up grading the umpty million already in the queue? Those cards that would have arrived APR 1 wouldn't even hit R and ID until June and grading until ,well who knows? Unless they can hire a massive amount of graders or go to an AI based grading, the backlog will be a very long slog for them and us.

    This was my thought exactly. Plus when you hire new graders, just like any other companies new employee, there's a training period, and just the overall concept of being new so you're not as quick as someone who's been there for years. A new grader hired now, probably doesn't really get in the "grove" of things for a few months.

    However, maybe with no new orders coming in that were for the quick turn around time levels, they can pull the graders that would've spent time on those orders, and have them help with the orders that are 200+ days behind. After 2 months of no orders coming in, you take a big bite out of those lower end levels, plus you are completely caught up on the higher end levels.

  • rexvosrexvos Posts: 3,274 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Now with 2 in QA2. One had the description review disappear overnight. No upcharge emails as of yet. Thinking I got hammered on both subs

    Looking for FB HOF Rookies
  • scmavlscmavl Posts: 1,400 ✭✭✭

    Four orders that arrived on 3/3 were all logged last night. One regular & one express normal cards order, one regular & one express cards/autos order. The Express non-auto order is in grading, the others are in research. Got my fingers crossed for this Express order, as it has '49 Paige/Robinson, a '34 Gehrig, and LeBron RC...

    2.5 is pretty much my speed.
  • envoy982envoy982 Posts: 368 ✭✭✭

    @scmavl - I wonder if the regular order was logged because it was with an express?

  • bobbybakerivbobbybakeriv Posts: 2,186 ✭✭✭✭
    edited April 1, 2021 8:40AM

    Ouch. I thought none of these (aside from the Aaron) would grade lower than 8. Tough grading here IMHO. It seems like I am one grade off on my recent submissions. Does PSA even use half-grades anymore? Based on my experience, NOPE.

    1 1 49247724 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1975 Topps Mini 320 Pete Rose
    2 1 49247725 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 Topps Mini 320 Pete Rose
    3 1 49247726 NEAR MINT 7 1975 Topps Mini 320 Pete Rose
    4 1 49247727 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 Topps 320 Pete Rose
    5 1 49247728 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 Topps 320 Pete Rose
    6 1 49247729 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 Topps 320 Pete Rose
    7 1 49247730 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1975 Topps 320 Pete Rose
    8 1 49247731 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1975 Topps 320 Pete Rose
    9 1 49247732 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1975 Topps 320 Pete Rose
    10 1 49247733 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1975 Topps 1 '74 Highlights Hank Aaron
    11 1 49247734 NEAR MINT-MINT 8 1977 Topps 400 Steve Garvey
    12 1 49247735 EXCELLENT-MINT 6 1977 Topps 400 Steve Garvey

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