Will the rise in prices sustain? Is this the new floor, will there be a drop, or just the beginning
1948_Swell_Robinson
Posts: 1,689 ✭✭✭✭
There has been a turbo charge in prices in the past three weeks, many cards across the board going from $4,000 to $8,000 in a snap of a finger. That increase in price is on top of an already surge in prices over the last year. Stock market has done the some thing, and that has been during a time of economic hardship for many(due to the myriad of problems caused by covid). Many analysts say that the stocks will come crashing down, and it may to some degree, as history is filled with ups and downs.
We have all endured ups and down in cards and stocks, but in the end there has always been a rebound, and they have always ended up higher than at any other time. There are always outliers, but compare prices from now to 1980 in cards and the stock market. There are hills and valleys ALWAYS, but now the floors are still higher than the ceilings of other decades.
When you think what drives the price of a card to go up, what drives the price of gold, oil, a house, to go up, or increase the number of paying customers standing in line for a new roller coaster, it is people. Of course in EVERY market there are small pockets within that buck the overall trend where better choices win(If one guy bought Kobe RC and another bought Mark Prior RC when they were cheaper), and values can be found, or values can be lost...independent of the overall health of that market.
Politics, trends, hysteria, fear, all play a major role. Someone can write an entire book on just a tiny segment of each of those things...but is simplicity really the answer?
In the end, is the sustained growth really just a matter of our population being on a consistent escalating pace? Think about it, there are 1 billion more people in the world today than there was in 2009. 2009, not 1920! This may sound crass and simplistic, but that is 1 billion more people needing to wipe their butt after sitting on the toilet. Yes, I know other cultures may wipe their butt differently, but whatever they do, there are 1 billion more people doing that too. You can list all the things needed for that increase; more paper, water, ceramic, metals, light bulbs...it can go on and on, and someone more familiar with that can expound if they wish.
You can do that exercise with every single thing we do, use, or consume. Without making it political, it is a billion more people using gas and oil, a billion more people needing silver for joy or consumer use, a billion more people with transportation needs, a billion more people with entertainment needs. Some items have a set supply, some require a lot of work to unearth, and all require some type of labor to achieve. In the end, the demand is rising. Items that keep lock step with demand probably remain unchanged. Items where the supply does not grow accordingly with demand will see an increase in cost. Yes, simple supply and demand. Many factors will cause ebb and flows, but when the demand is continually rising overall(more people), it is going to catch every aspect of supply to varying degrees.
What about cards. Apart from the new ones printed every year, the supply of the vintage is set, and probably goes down due to damage or complete loss. The United states has 90 million more people in it today than in 1990, and 24 million than in 2010. 24 million is a lot of people. I'm not sure we always give that numbers its due. We all saw with what just a couple thousand people did to Game Stop stock.
The United states has been the primary driver of sports card purchases, but that is changing quickly. Overseas purchase have rising tremnedously, so the world growth has a big impact. Certain countries are known as emerging economies, and that is going to mean even more buying power in all aspects. Who knows if in fifteen years how many more citizens in Africa have more disposable income due to economic and cultural growth.
While there may very well be some valleys coming(certainly more likely in stocks than in cards); with history showing that the new floors are higher than the older ceilings, and with the continual increase in the total number of people in the world, we may just be entering the dawn of this wild ride.
Comments
my guess is prices and the number of threads about them doing so continue to rise accordingly.
Some cards are still undervalued.
If the Wall Street gang stays for the duration, then our prices are stable to up.
There is excess liquidity with zero interest rates and the Fed printing money faster than Farrah Fawcett posters.
Higher prices should be here to stay. The excess money is finding its way into our hobby.
If the rich continue, many of us can say goodbye to 9s and 10s, and settle with 6s and 7s.
Personally, I'd like to see at least some settling of prices in the vintage unopened category. While it's nice to see the value of my collection increase exponentially, I don't think it's healthy overall at this point for the hobby to see these crazy increases in value in such a short period of time. JMO. Plus, I'd like to buy more product, too.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
This is just the beginning of what I believe wall street interjecting in to the sports cards market.
-There’s no valuations; it’s all about what someone is willing to pay for a product.
-minus sites like collectible, there’s ZERO regulation. You can’t short a card’s value thinking it’ll go down.
-the value of cards is a more tangible asset, and eliminates a lot of uncertainty you’d otherwise find in the stock market.
-the memorabilia market eliminates a lot of uncertainty that can’t really be influenced by upgrades/downgrades, and other ratings.
-being a retail investor myself (on the side), the aforementioned reasons above are some of the reasons That have driven me more and more into collecting.
When the Stock Market reverses, and it will, this is the market where people will turn to for investing. IMHO
"Non-collector" money is driving up prices. When they cash out & they will because they are only in it for profit, crazy card prices will settle back.
Almost like a Yogi Berra type ism. 'Card sales are so high, nobody can buy them anymore'. Pricing collectors out is probably the worst part of the rising prices. What could happen in that case? Collectors could shift their focus to other cards/sets that may not have seen that rise, yet. Kind of like not being able to afford Disney stock, you get Cedar Fair Stock instead(which may be a better buy anyway). Instead of a '52 Topps Mantle, grab the '52 Berk Ross instead.
All the high prices for 1970's psa 9's and 10'? You have Hostess cards and Kellogg's to offer good alternatives....or just buying a nice looking PSA 6 Ozzie Smith rookie instead of the 9.
As for unopened packs, hmmm, I don't think there are as many alternatives there. That may simply price people out of the unopened. I guess the alternative is they buy the cards if they can't afford the packs.
I'm pretty much solely a vintage unopened collector and there are still good buys out there, just fewer and father between as prices rise and product availability dwindles. I have also seen a shift by collectors into more reasonably priced 80s product. The good thing is that if you already have tougher packs and boxes that are more valuable now, those can be sold or traded to help fund new purchases, too. As collectors, there are many different ways to keep collecting.
Collecting 1970s Topps baseball wax, rack and cello packs, as well as PCGS graded Half Cents, Large Cents, Two Cent pieces and Three Cent Silver pieces.
Oceans rise,
Empires fall,
We have seen each other through it all.
And when push,
Comes to shove,
I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
The bottom line is no one really knows where this thing is going.
When I first took economics classes we learned about shifts in the demand curve and supply curve. We learned about how sellers would produce more product at higher prices and would have an economic incentive to do so.
The problem today is that the supply of cards produced is fixed but the supply that still exists is lower and the supply in unopened form and investment grade is even lower.
There is no way to radically shift the supply curve.
In the process of learning about the supply and demand curve we also learned about massive shifts in demand where it shifts two times or three times. Right now the demand curve for cards has shifted probably ten times.
People have no idea how much bigger this has gotten in such a short period of time. The number of new Instagram accounts dedicated to cards. Twitter accounts. Podcasts. Youtube channels with almost daily updates and 20,000 views in a few days. It is spiraling in a way none of us have ever seen.
Predicting this is going to be nearly impossible with the influx of buyers and money. Many of us have been here for awhile and seen the surge in the hobby over the years. I started posting in 2010 and we were just coming off the bottom. A 1993 Derek Jeter in a PSA 10 was $6,400 and the most overpriced card in the hobby. A few years later when it was $24,000 insane and the buyer is only going to lose money. This same comment has happened the entire time and I would not be surprised if a Jeter is $400,000 or more today.
No one has been good at making forecasts other than saying prices would rise. Covid was the death sentence of cards and instead it became the match in a forest that turned into a massive blaze. I have read for nine months or more we were in a bubble and yet the prices just keep going higher and higher.
We saw one of the biggest stars in the NFL Deshaun Watson flex his 1994 Miami Bumble Bee Dwayne Johnson PSA 10 at lunch this week on Instagram and Twitter and this was the copy that just sold for $45,100 in the PWCC auction. I got contacted on Twitter and it was reported Friday night that two sold privately for $70,000. You could barely give this card away at $725 and now there is a shift in the demand curve so strong that it has gone parabolic and just keep climbing.
I spoke at length about how fractional ownership was a game changer. Nothing really to say here other than it was even bigger than I predicted.
Hedge funds buying. Alternative asset managers trying to get in.
I saw early on that the economics around cards were incredible. I had never seen anything in my life like it. Because of grading and the financial reward that the market prices in you have tremendous odds of winning. The notion that I can buy something and invest more and instantly make it worth more fascinated me and I followed this for years and years and after nearly 11 years actively submitting cards to PSA I have never lost money on a submission and instead in so many cases the potential return is 400% or higher and sometimes even much more.
How did anyone really expect money not to follow this? Money follows money.
Each day I see sales that blow my mind and each day when I look the bid lists are getting longer and longer. BIN's of good cards in the genres I follow go fast and each day when new cards come up they get listed for higher and they go higher. I recall a few months back a board member listed a 1987 OPC Bret Hart PSA 9 and it went in the $400 range. I thought that was impressive. A few days ago one hammered at $3,950. This is happening in every genre. What follows is unopened wax goes nuts and then gets so expensive you can't rip and decreases the number of new high grade copies that enter the market and if demand stays relatively constant prices have no where to go but up. That said no one knows what will happen to demand. It isn't slowing anytime soon but perhaps an uptick in sellers at some point scares buyers off and the momentum shifts.
Good luck figuring it out. I think we are no where close to the activity slowing so don't get your hopes up for a crash in the coming months. The real problem with supply is many are emotionally attached to the items they own and so they won't sell. If you told me that a 1986 Panini Itlaian MIke Tyson PSA 9 would go for close to 32k years ago I would have said you can have them all. Instead I still own them all. Many love cards and while the money is tantalizing what are you going to do with it? Sure you can protect the downside and that is very rational but you can also miss out on unbelievable increases. It is a tough call and I think a lot are not sure what to do.
Was mentioned here before.
2016 was a millionaires' buying group of investors.
Today it's billionaires among every other kinda group
Dpeck, very well said and some great examples. Imagine if it comes to pass that the biggest dilemma is that collectors' collections get so expensive that the biggest problem they have is deciding whether to sell their labor of love for 400% the price they paid, or keeping it.
Every record price in the last 20 years was met with, "That's crazy! Luckily they are rich where they can afford to throw money away like that." Then look what happened. It really is a marvel watching all this happen.
Thanks for posting this!
I see this similar to the late 80's and very early 90's. You couldn't go wrong in investing in cards back then, so everybody got into it. I see the same thing happening now. Personally, I've been selling everything since April and it's going well, as you can imagine. Obviously some of the cards I sold in April I wish I still had to sell now, but it is what it is.
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Successful transactions on the BST boards with rtimmer, coincoins, gerard, tincup, tjm965, MMR, mission16, dirtygoldman, AUandAG, deadmunny, thedutymon, leadoff4, Kid4HOF03, BRI2327, colebear, mcholke, rpcolettrane, rockdjrw, publius, quik, kalinefan, Allen, JackWESQ, CON40, Griffeyfan2430, blue227, Tiggs2012, ndleo, CDsNuts, ve3rules, doh, MurphDawg, tennessebanker, and gene1978.
The rush is similar, but the mania in the late 80's early 90's was primarily with overproduced cards. I don't have enough fingers to count on for the amount of times I saw people walking away with three 1989 Donruss sets and saying, "This is for my kids's college fund," Ironically, those stories are what later led many people in society to think 'baseball cards are dead' because those all lost their value. When in reality, the card market was never dead after the 1990's, it just changed.
The few people in the card shows in 1989 who were walking out with complete 1969 Topps basketball sets for $50, Bird/Magic rookies for $15, and of course Jordan's....jeez, what a tale of two story's. Or the foresight to buy vintage RC's.
Back then how many times I heard stories of people saying, "Wow, if I had known my Mickey Mantle's would be worth this much, I would have kept them or bought more," or the famous "my mom threw them all out." At that point in time, i NEVER would have thought that I would be saying something similar 30 years later of any cards produced in that time period. We have all let gold slip through our fingers at some point. You have to have the mentality of a closer. A short memory. Control what sits in front of you.
the only thing they were wrong about was "their kids" college fund. apparently they were just a tad short-sighted. it actually was for their grandkids college fund.
I like what Gary Vee said...."Nobody talks about demand"....
chaz
I don't know which way it's going, but I am in for the ride. Memories, nostalgia, are wrapped up in some cards that I have that will be hard for me to part with at just about any price. On the other hand I can't believe I saw some 88 Donruss BB wax boxes going for $30.00. I think there is still a large pool of people that have an interest in something as simple as a sport card and willing to buy them.
@Dpeck100 said:
Many love cards and while the money is tantalizing what are you going to do with it?
Pretty much describes me and I'm sure I'm not alone. I'm just an itty bitty guppy in a sea of whales and don't throw around thousands of dollars at cardboard daily or monthly. In this scenario now as I sold 3 graded basketball cards that I had trips of (2nd yr. Jordan + sticker and Topps Lebron... PSA 8 & 9 Lebron). On the investment side... up $5200, on the collector side... minus 3 cards and now only have dupes. What to do with the $$? Not a clue....... For many of us I think it's not about doubling the dollars but more like 20-25 times and determining your own price point that you are willing to let something you love go. So, what to do with the extra cash? Will find something, not necessarily cardboard related that will bring happiness, smiles and laughter.
Everything is skyrocketing right now, but a couple items that have caught my attention are the 1981 Topps Football unopened wax box as well as 1980 Topps baseball unopened wax box. Until recently, 1980 wax was $1,000 - $1,500. They're breathing all over $8K right now. There is one for sale right now on ebay that I think will break $8K in the next 24 hours. Side note. Any thoughts on what a 1975 Topps Mini Wax Box goes for right now (both regular and FASC). I know a few of us on here bought in at $1,200 on these. . .
@Dpeck100 said:
Many love cards and while the money is tantalizing what are you going to do with it?
(and i say this with nothing but love and respect)
whatever in the (expletive delete) i want!
fewer things in life bring as much joy as "options".
The 80 box will exceed $8k. I exchanged notes with Steve over the weekend and we will both just shaking our heads.
The chiropractors around the country are going to be seeing an uptick in business with all these head shakes on prices.
1980 wax, not FASC.
Sold for $10,200.
May have to sell my super cello. Asking $15k. Lol.
Be careful if you ask that...you may get it.
I would probably trade the box for 2 PSA 9 Rickey’s!
I can’t believe I’m telling my dad to go through his 1990 Skybox.
Glad I impulse-bought these last Halloween! Didn’t think these would be pushing 2 grand so fast. 🤷♂️
Steve just had 3 of these listed for a BO of $1795.. gone within a day! 🤯
make sure you get a premium for the jordan boxes.
I agree with David. We are nowhere near a slowdown.
It sure is fun and interesting to participate and follow along. The National should be very interesting.
Thanks for that well-written opinion...very informative and much appreciated
To the above post money follows money especially in an unregulated industry. We all love this hobby of collecting cards, but it has a ton of black eyes. Every day we find out about this trimmed card being sold by x, or this high end card being shilled at auction. It is why PSA and BBCE do such a huge business - people want security and confirmation. Imagine buying a house for $600k snd suddenly the roof falls in or house sinks. Now imagine buying a $600k card you find is trimmed or altered or bad cert #.
Rising prices are great and will continue but for how long. When the money leaves it will be the last money in and the biggest pulling out first and the small guys getting pinched. Right now the small to medium guys can’t buy boxes at retail any more to just take home and break and open with their kids. A year ago they could. Plus things going up 5-10x benefit the big guys or little guys who can’t afford it. Once the little guys leave who will the big guys sell to, and when they lose interest where do prices go? 🤔
to things like 1988 starting lineup basketball or etopps cards. always things to switch gears to. not everybody gets to or even has to drive an aston to work.
Yeah but when yesterday’s Civic is now dubbed an Aston, the axis of reality has warped a bit.
I’d go so far as to say, in continuing the car analogy, that what has happened is more like this: people happily and for years commuting to work in their affordable cars. They are suddenly jacked from their cars, told their cars are now Aston Martins and unaffordable, and they can now walk home on the side of the highway.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
ehh. the beauty is they are now driving an aston w no civic monthly car payments. they can choose to sell the aston and go shopping for another civic. or just walk. and it ain't to work, it's off into the sunset...
selling the civic for aston money only to buy into a new shinier aston right now is the dumb move. that's where folks will get stuck.
plenty of civics to look into, after all, purchaser was only dabbling in the civic market to begin with, right?
I think a lot of people on this board now have stacks of "civics". At least used 2004 valued ones, lol.
Collecting:
post world war II HOF rookie
76 topps gem mint 10 commons 9 stars
Arenado purple refractors(Rockies) Red (Cardinals)
successful deals with Keevan, Grote15, 1954, mbogoman
@blurryface Aston??? Didn’t picture you as a British car guy. Fetch the polo ponies and get me a scotch!!!
There are cards at price points for every collector who wants to play and some cards have always been out of reach for the vast majority of the hobby, anyway.
And let’s face it analogies are fun!!!
Never forget some people don’t drive. Sure, a hot car is a hot car but it isn’t like everyone loves Aston or Tesla. Some like an RV, some like a Ford F-350 Super Duty Diesel and some like a Ferrari. Me? I think Civics and Camrys are fine cars that get you from point a to point b. The guy on the bicycle wishes he had your Camry and the guy walking would love to have either.
Enjoy what you’ve got.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
I have collected for 51 years, only stopping for mid high school through college.
Even though I'm highly focused on adding to my collection, with prices where they are now, I'm purchasing fewer and fewer cards as time goes on, as I've maintained a discipline that's served me for decades, and I'm unwilling to chase after this market.
So, if I'm unwilling to be a buyer at these prices, I intuitively weigh becoming an aggressive seller, fantasizing about selling my entire collection but for just a couple of those sets I just can never see letting go of regardless of their price.
But what I'm confronted with is what would I do with the money, and all the time I'm spending on it all that would bring me that much more satisfaction?
I don't really have an an answer yet, so continue doing what what I love daily.
just like my card collection, my stable does not discriminate.
i have my 65 gt500 parked next to the 68 ss. the db7 next to the 456. 71 caddy next to the 64 andy griffith galaxie. 😉
i appreciate all kinda of cars. and yes, i even have the 79 mg-b that grandpa took me to disney in along w/ an original 1st gen '81 honda accord parked proudly next to the rest of the stallions.
i can assure you what's going on w the card market is going on w/i the classic car market too. i had several holes that i wanted to fill. my problem back then was additional warehouse space. now it's the new buy in prices.
Can I just get a ride to the grocery? I need bread and milk. 🥺
uber eats. 😉
i have a very heavy foot. and there's no crying over milk that will surely get spilt!
agreed. just adding a fun anecdote.
"motorists hate pedestrians. pedestrians hate motorists. but everybody hates a cyclist"
The new normal...we are witnessing. It takes time to adjust to changes in the way of life. Eventually...we come around to accepting it. Exciting times in our hobby...enjoy!
This too depends on what you're collecting and chasing.
I've been chasing lower pop, better quality vintage for what feels like half a lifetime.
Availability on the market is everything.
Miss out on a mid grade '33 Ruth or Gehrig...you're waiting a long time to try it again.
Sure, a certain % of chasers are out of the running with each price hike.
Any drop in market value will bring a percentage of buyers back.
Each era or genre might have their own market dynamic.
All that I know, it is a long long road to acquire a specific genre of a more desirable collection; whatever that collector or investor deems desirable.
Seeing Timbaland and Deshaun Watson on the list of investors changes the dynamics of the Instagram photo they posted with that Dwayne Johnson PSA 10 RC card. I am sure there is going to be a lot of money made going forward in cards but if anyone still believes this is organic demand from people stuck at home due to COVID they are just fooling themselves.
Robb
Might have leaked info not supposed to be posted? Stuff disappearing and muzzle on new posts for some reason
Saw it on my phone while getting some coffee and came back upstairs to read and it was gone. Doesn't seem like any of the names were leaks, it's pretty well publicized: https://www.beckett.com/news/40-million-goldin-auctions-investment-group-includes-kevin-durant-dwyane-wade-deshaun-watson/
what i woulda thought, but wasnt anything cursing or vulgar either?
Well said. I agree. Echoes of the Gamestop fiasco. It is a somewhat gray area in terms of people talking up and promoting their moves, and that becoming contagious (to some, others are less inclined to follow the herd). I think we will continue to see those with fame and a platform use those tools to promote things in which they have a vested interest. The question will be how many lemmings follow and run off the cliff!
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Or, we can refuse to accept/obey and rage against that which we loathe. What you call exciting, others may outright despise.
Instagram: mattyc_collection