Many of the others will be at NGC if you’re able to look at the pops there. Might be an interesting comparison. Some, of course, won’t be submitted to anyone like mine.
Damn, a 67 and a 68 showed up in "first strike" silver. Mine is "ready to be graded". All I can think about is the 2019-S ERP where I got a 68. C'mon 70!!!
@TurtleCat said:
Many of the others will be at NGC if you’re able to look at the pops there. Might be an interesting comparison. Some, of course, won’t be submitted to anyone like mine.
The reports ATS are not as easy to read in a simple picture. They also lump the 2020-W V75 as a variety under the 2020-W umbrella. That said, I see that they have graded one ASE as 66, four as 67 and five as 68. They have graded many more ASEs than PCGS as of this time with the expected higher PR70 ratio.
They have graded about a hundred more AGE than PCGS as of right now and I see that they have a much higher PR70 ratio. 69/70= 19 / 271
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
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They should have to detail why a 69 vice a 70 so at least you could look at it yourself and learn. This is just a whack a mole as it stands now
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Sorry to hear it Mgarmy. Mine should be coming out with a grade soon so I'm in that same anticipatory stage of wondering and hoping. I know I'll be disappointed if not a 70 but a 69 still has an excellent return on investment. that's how I'm going to rationalize it if mine comes back a 69. Still worth the gamble of having it graded and encased. >
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
@Mgarmy said:
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
For us average joes under First Strike, we are running about 50/50 with 69 & 70 grades on the ASE. I see the AGE percentage is slipping a little today too. I am told that a lot of those FDOI numbers are 70 heavy because the 69s are screened out and not slabbed/counted.
But on resubmits you are pulling a 70 eventually? Hmm... Crack-out or reconsideration?
Crack outs on the ERP. Might just switch to ngc I am so fired up. Totally ancillary but the one time I pulled a 70 from pcgs I paid for walk through it was in a raw 08 rev 07 AND based on the pcgs number it looks like I paid and was charged for first strike as it went straight in but do not think they gave me a first strike holder
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@Mgarmy said:
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
For us average joes under First Strike, we are running about 50/50 with 69 & 70 grades on the ASE. I see the AGE percentage is slipping a little today too. I am told that a lot of those FDOI numbers are 70 heavy because the 69s are screened out and not slabbed/counted.
But on resubmits you are pulling a 70 eventually? Hmm... Crack-out or reconsideration?
Wouldn't it be logical that if something didn't make 70 the first time it should never become a 70, especially on a resubmit? Whatever stopped from being 70 the first time didn't just go away. Thoughts?
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Yes that would make sense but at least last year with erp took me three times. I have been told many times it is subjective and your coin is looked at for seconds, thus the variance. The danger is obviously in the crackout itself.
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Also would be great if they revealed the secret sauce and told you what was wrong with it. Ex- haze upper right or weak v75 strike etc. just appears random especially with the numbers being what they are
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@Mgarmy said:
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
For us average joes under First Strike, we are running about 50/50 with 69 & 70 grades on the ASE. I see the AGE percentage is slipping a little today too. I am told that a lot of those FDOI numbers are 70 heavy because the 69s are screened out and not slabbed/counted.
But on resubmits you are pulling a 70 eventually? Hmm... Crack-out or reconsideration?
Wouldn't it be logical that if something didn't make 70 the first time it should never become a 70, especially on a resubmit? Whatever stopped from being 70 the first time didn't just go away. Thoughts?
That is my thinking. If it is not a 70 it should not be a 70. They say several graders look at it and each make a call on grade. If there is a mark, no matter how small, it should never reach 70. But I'm thinking that not all 70s are created equal... especially if it takes several tries to get it there and it makes it.
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
When one does not pay attention to the concept of min. Grading and it’s impact on the pop report, one might begin to think they are always not getting the “fair and proper” grades on their coins.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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@Mgarmy said:
Please elaborate tad cryptic one might think
I believe that what Mitch (Wondercoin) means is that you brought up the 69 vs 70 stats as your argument on the grade you received.....and he is bringing up, as he has in other thread, lately and over the years, that MANY dealers/businesses submit MANY coins at once with a MINIMUM grade guarantee.....ie.....'70 or bust' type of thing. So, you don't see the fact that, if they didn't grade as a 70, they didn't grade at all (ie...not in the pop reports) and were returned raw.
So, if someone sent in 100 coins, minimum 70, and only 38 got 70 as the grade, then the other 62 wouldn't show up anywhere in those stats. Imbalances the report vs items sent in for grading, but it is what it is....and you have to know the "game" that is played by submitters on that.
I can't believe how many different labels are offered, a Mark Cuban insert? What!!
Checking out the pop reports, there are actually ASE's that graded PRCAM, and some that graded just PR. Wonder who owns the 2002 in PR68, pop 1??
Wonder and Mr. B thank you for your explanation. Wow...no reason at all pcgs should not be tracking total submittals as what you explained most definitely skews the results and paints a false picture
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No doubt, PCGS is tracking total submissions to its business. And, the min. Grade submissions do “skew” the results. But, I do not believe it “paints a false picture”. Since the “reject” coins are never slabbed in any particular grade, they have no place in the population report.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
If this was in a different context...say students who take the LSAT, top score is 180. So if the reporting agency only reported for the year those students who scored between 170 to 180 and did not report those who took the test but scored below 170, it would paint a picture that very few actually took the test in a given cycle. It is what it is but seems to the non-professional that it obfuscates the true numbers. Should be total submitted over total graded and then further broken down as it is now, of those graded 68 over those graded, 69 over those graded and 70 over those graded. That would present an accurate picture. I would think that would also positively effect value as if it was a bad mint run and say only 10% of all coins submitted graded 70...
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Mgarmy... isn’t this more akin to if the LSAT was either a pass or fail exam, or a graded exam scored from 200-800. All applicants could chose which scoring they wanted. And, the testing center reported how many passed and for those who had it scored what exactly their scores were. But, there was no report on how many candidates failed. That is what we have here... yes? Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
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I have found the above discussion interesting as it applies to modern high grade grading on new releases. The number of labels I find annoying... but I am not a label guy. I have learned that the population reports are just the population reports. The overall pop ratio is not a great barometer to the success rate in submissions for the average collector.
Watching these numbers I can see that the dealers with FDOI get in first and fast. The pops are skewed heavy towards 70 because many request coins grade at 70 or nothing.
Then there are the average collectors submitting to grade a raw coin. They don't have a minimum grade option so it slabs at what it is and gets added to the count. This early in the game I think those under "First Strike" are the barometer for overall run quality. Look at that one line and you will see the difference on 69vs70 in a more realistic ratio. Don't look at the pop totals which includes the skewed FDOI.
Now that FDOI labels are no longer available but FS is for a few more days, I suspect that dealers have started submitting under FS with the same parameters they used under FDOI. When those start to show I expect the FS 69vs70 to skew more towards 70.
Then there will be non-FS after the FS window closes. Of course a sealed box can still come to grade FS at any time. Not sure how many dealers will still be submitting any quantity that late in the game to influence the 69/70 ratio.
The numbers are interesting to follow and any FDOI/FS modern player probably knows this game well. For us average collectors that don't submit under the new moderns 70 game, this is valuable information for the times you actually try it. I have submitted very nice proofs in the past expecting 70 only to return with a 69. Looking at the overall pops will lull you into a false sense of expecting a 70.
@Mgarmy said:
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
For us average joes under First Strike, we are running about 50/50 with 69 & 70 grades on the ASE. I see the AGE percentage is slipping a little today too. I am told that a lot of those FDOI numbers are 70 heavy because the 69s are screened out and not slabbed/counted.
But on resubmits you are pulling a 70 eventually? Hmm... Crack-out or reconsideration?
Wouldn't it be logical that if something didn't make 70 the first time it should never become a 70, especially on a resubmit? Whatever stopped from being 70 the first time didn't just go away. Thoughts?
That is my thinking. If it is not a 70 it should not be a 70. They say several graders look at it and each make a call on grade. If there is a mark, no matter how small, it should never reach 70. But I'm thinking that not all 70s are created equal... especially if it takes several tries to get it there and it makes it.
Why on earth would you think that? EVERY coin has some marks if you look close enough. I believe the standard is looking at it at 10x, but it really doesn't matter. At any given grade level there will be some boundary coins. There are coins that are, for example, between 69A+ and 70C-. That has to be a very small space, but the coins have to be graded one way or the other. It stands to reason that a) it could go one way or the other and b) the coins in that range that are given a 70 don't come back for regrading.
My son bought an ASE. I'm sending it in tomorrow morning for grading (looks great through my loupe) Hopefully grades out well (70 ). GiveMeProof stay positive!
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@thebigeng said:
Are the PCGS Graded Prdcam 69's silver privy selling for more money then the raw ones?
Normally I see value as 69/raw/70. But looking at eBay right now I see several of the 69s are selling above raw price averages. Kind of different, not a lost of PCGS history though. I'll have to look back in a few weeks when the listings are flooded with 69s.
New numbers for today. A lot of ASEs over the last day are graded. Look at all those labels! I don't know haw many more I can do with screen shots, my screen is not big enough for any more lines.
Look at the huge influx of ASE First Strike PR70s. The ratio of 69vs70 has changed dramatically. I'm thinking that the dealers submissions are now showing under the FS stats.
good to see a jump in 70's on the silver. I just sent my son's in to PCGS for him this morning so it gives me hope he'll get a 70. It looked like a contender through my loupe.
@Onedollarnohollar said:
good to see a jump in 70's on the silver. I just sent my son's in to PCGS for him this morning so it gives me hope he'll get a 70. It looked like a contender through my loupe.
It is... But unfortunately I think the influx of only 70s is the big guys submitting many coins under FS now that FDOI is no longer an option for them. Before today the FS ratio was closer to 50/50, now today the ratio is closer to 33/67.
If using their previous tactics the big guys do not have the 69s slabbed which skews the true 69/70 ratio compared to what is reflected in the pop reports. I think that you or I will still have a 50/50 chance at 70 with our submissions. I hope you guys score a 70!
@Onedollarnohollar said:
My son bought an ASE. I'm sending it in tomorrow morning for grading (looks great through my loupe) Hopefully grades out well (70 ). GiveMeProof stay positive!
Thanks Dollar. Increase in FS 70's lifts my spirits. Now in QA. Won't be long now.
@thebigeng said:
I think the 70's are harder to get then the pops show.... What are the wholesaler's buying the 70's for anyway?
not sure about wholesaler's buy price but as for the 70's being harder to get, they are for the single submitters. just above 50/50. the mass submitters only get their 70's graded and slabbed with the 69's or less being returned to them raw. they don't show the 69's or less in the population reports so it skews the actual percentages on the chart. that's why I was so happy to get a proof 70 on my gold v75 eagle. I knew I beat the odds in a way. Now I await my son's ASE results and hope that he beats the odds as well.
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The daily update for those that are interested in grade progressions.
A few more labels to the pile, another 500 ASEs graded. Not a lot of AGEs showing up.
Comments
Many of the others will be at NGC if you’re able to look at the pops there. Might be an interesting comparison. Some, of course, won’t be submitted to anyone like mine.
TurtleCat Gold Dollars
Damn, a 67 and a 68 showed up in "first strike" silver. Mine is "ready to be graded". All I can think about is the 2019-S ERP where I got a 68. C'mon 70!!!
I'm holding my breath too. My gold v75 is in the grading stage also. goes without saying we all want 70's
The reports ATS are not as easy to read in a simple picture. They also lump the 2020-W V75 as a variety under the 2020-W umbrella. That said, I see that they have graded one ASE as 66, four as 67 and five as 68. They have graded many more ASEs than PCGS as of this time with the expected higher PR70 ratio.
They have graded about a hundred more AGE than PCGS as of right now and I see that they have a much higher PR70 ratio. 69/70= 19 / 271
A few more listed today, no big jumps in numbers.
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
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They should have to detail why a 69 vice a 70 so at least you could look at it yourself and learn. This is just a whack a mole as it stands now
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Sorry to hear it Mgarmy. Mine should be coming out with a grade soon so I'm in that same anticipatory stage of wondering and hoping. I know I'll be disappointed if not a 70 but a 69 still has an excellent return on investment. that's how I'm going to rationalize it if mine comes back a 69. Still worth the gamble of having it graded and encased. >
@Mgarmy said:
hope you do better next time.
For us average joes under First Strike, we are running about 50/50 with 69 & 70 grades on the ASE. I see the AGE percentage is slipping a little today too. I am told that a lot of those FDOI numbers are 70 heavy because the 69s are screened out and not slabbed/counted.
But on resubmits you are pulling a 70 eventually? Hmm... Crack-out or reconsideration?
Despite the coin, it is still a "go fish" game, on sight unseen new issues.
Crack outs on the ERP. Might just switch to ngc I am so fired up. Totally ancillary but the one time I pulled a 70 from pcgs I paid for walk through it was in a raw 08 rev 07 AND based on the pcgs number it looks like I paid and was charged for first strike as it went straight in but do not think they gave me a first strike holder
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Wouldn't it be logical that if something didn't make 70 the first time it should never become a 70, especially on a resubmit? Whatever stopped from being 70 the first time didn't just go away. Thoughts?
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Yes that would make sense but at least last year with erp took me three times. I have been told many times it is subjective and your coin is looked at for seconds, thus the variance. The danger is obviously in the crackout itself.
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Also would be great if they revealed the secret sauce and told you what was wrong with it. Ex- haze upper right or weak v75 strike etc. just appears random especially with the numbers being what they are
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That is my thinking. If it is not a 70 it should not be a 70. They say several graders look at it and each make a call on grade. If there is a mark, no matter how small, it should never reach 70. But I'm thinking that not all 70s are created equal... especially if it takes several tries to get it there and it makes it.
Well once again hosed. 69. SOB. According to coin facts 284 69’s as opposed to 1155 70’s. You gotta be kidding me. This is the same crapola I went through with the ERP. Three resubmits and poof a 70.
When one does not pay attention to the concept of min. Grading and it’s impact on the pop report, one might begin to think they are always not getting the “fair and proper” grades on their coins.
Just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please elaborate tad cryptic one might think
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I believe that what Mitch (Wondercoin) means is that you brought up the 69 vs 70 stats as your argument on the grade you received.....and he is bringing up, as he has in other thread, lately and over the years, that MANY dealers/businesses submit MANY coins at once with a MINIMUM grade guarantee.....ie.....'70 or bust' type of thing. So, you don't see the fact that, if they didn't grade as a 70, they didn't grade at all (ie...not in the pop reports) and were returned raw.
So, if someone sent in 100 coins, minimum 70, and only 38 got 70 as the grade, then the other 62 wouldn't show up anywhere in those stats. Imbalances the report vs items sent in for grading, but it is what it is....and you have to know the "game" that is played by submitters on that.
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
I can't believe how many different labels are offered, a Mark Cuban insert? What!!
Checking out the pop reports, there are actually ASE's that graded PRCAM, and some that graded just PR. Wonder who owns the 2002 in PR68, pop 1??
Well done Bochiman. I would only add that the bulk submitters pay a fee on every coin that is submitted whether it grades 70 or not.
Wondercoin
Wonder and Mr. B thank you for your explanation. Wow...no reason at all pcgs should not be tracking total submittals as what you explained most definitely skews the results and paints a false picture
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Mgarmy. My pleasure.
No doubt, PCGS is tracking total submissions to its business. And, the min. Grade submissions do “skew” the results. But, I do not believe it “paints a false picture”. Since the “reject” coins are never slabbed in any particular grade, they have no place in the population report.
Wondercoin
If this was in a different context...say students who take the LSAT, top score is 180. So if the reporting agency only reported for the year those students who scored between 170 to 180 and did not report those who took the test but scored below 170, it would paint a picture that very few actually took the test in a given cycle. It is what it is but seems to the non-professional that it obfuscates the true numbers. Should be total submitted over total graded and then further broken down as it is now, of those graded 68 over those graded, 69 over those graded and 70 over those graded. That would present an accurate picture. I would think that would also positively effect value as if it was a bad mint run and say only 10% of all coins submitted graded 70...
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Mgarmy... isn’t this more akin to if the LSAT was either a pass or fail exam, or a graded exam scored from 200-800. All applicants could chose which scoring they wanted. And, the testing center reported how many passed and for those who had it scored what exactly their scores were. But, there was no report on how many candidates failed. That is what we have here... yes? Wondercoin
Yep. Ty.
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I have found the above discussion interesting as it applies to modern high grade grading on new releases. The number of labels I find annoying... but I am not a label guy. I have learned that the population reports are just the population reports. The overall pop ratio is not a great barometer to the success rate in submissions for the average collector.
Watching these numbers I can see that the dealers with FDOI get in first and fast. The pops are skewed heavy towards 70 because many request coins grade at 70 or nothing.
Then there are the average collectors submitting to grade a raw coin. They don't have a minimum grade option so it slabs at what it is and gets added to the count. This early in the game I think those under "First Strike" are the barometer for overall run quality. Look at that one line and you will see the difference on 69vs70 in a more realistic ratio. Don't look at the pop totals which includes the skewed FDOI.
Now that FDOI labels are no longer available but FS is for a few more days, I suspect that dealers have started submitting under FS with the same parameters they used under FDOI. When those start to show I expect the FS 69vs70 to skew more towards 70.
Then there will be non-FS after the FS window closes. Of course a sealed box can still come to grade FS at any time. Not sure how many dealers will still be submitting any quantity that late in the game to influence the 69/70 ratio.
The numbers are interesting to follow and any FDOI/FS modern player probably knows this game well. For us average collectors that don't submit under the new moderns 70 game, this is valuable information for the times you actually try it. I have submitted very nice proofs in the past expecting 70 only to return with a 69. Looking at the overall pops will lull you into a false sense of expecting a 70.
Call the 67 a rare lowball and double the price.
Good luck with that one! Hey... that isn't the one you touched and smudged all up is it??
Some numbers for today. Some increases but not as much as I would expect given the threads on back logs because of these V75s coming in.
put me down as one of the PF 70 DCAM First Strike Gold Privy V75's . just got the results today.
Who says I can’t plan?
True, very true... but I think you can do better than a 67 next time!
Why on earth would you think that? EVERY coin has some marks if you look close enough. I believe the standard is looking at it at 10x, but it really doesn't matter. At any given grade level there will be some boundary coins. There are coins that are, for example, between 69A+ and 70C-. That has to be a very small space, but the coins have to be graded one way or the other. It stands to reason that a) it could go one way or the other and b) the coins in that range that are given a 70 don't come back for regrading.
I could detail it in no time.
My ASE is in grade verification. On my ERP I received a 68. I'm scared.
My son bought an ASE. I'm sending it in tomorrow morning for grading (looks great through my loupe) Hopefully grades out well (70
). GiveMeProof stay positive!
Are the PCGS Graded Prdcam 69's silver privy selling for more money then the raw ones?
That would be interesting if that is the case
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Normally I see value as 69/raw/70. But looking at eBay right now I see several of the 69s are selling above raw price averages. Kind of different, not a lost of PCGS history though. I'll have to look back in a few weeks when the listings are flooded with 69s.
New numbers for today. A lot of ASEs over the last day are graded. Look at all those labels! I don't know haw many more I can do with screen shots, my screen is not big enough for any more lines.
Look at the huge influx of ASE First Strike PR70s. The ratio of 69vs70 has changed dramatically. I'm thinking that the dealers submissions are now showing under the FS stats.
good to see a jump in 70's on the silver. I just sent my son's in to PCGS for him this morning so it gives me hope he'll get a 70. It looked like a contender through my loupe.
It is... But unfortunately I think the influx of only 70s is the big guys submitting many coins under FS now that FDOI is no longer an option for them. Before today the FS ratio was closer to 50/50, now today the ratio is closer to 33/67.
If using their previous tactics the big guys do not have the 69s slabbed which skews the true 69/70 ratio compared to what is reflected in the pop reports. I think that you or I will still have a 50/50 chance at 70 with our submissions. I hope you guys score a 70!
Thanks Dollar. Increase in FS 70's lifts my spirits. Now in QA. Won't be long now.
I think the 70's are harder to get then the pops show.... What are the wholesaler's buying the 70's for anyway?
not sure about wholesaler's buy price but as for the 70's being harder to get, they are for the single submitters. just above 50/50. the mass submitters only get their 70's graded and slabbed with the 69's or less being returned to them raw. they don't show the 69's or less in the population reports so it skews the actual percentages on the chart. that's why I was so happy to get a proof 70 on my gold v75 eagle. I knew I beat the odds in a way. Now I await my son's ASE results and hope that he beats the odds as well.
I hope you do man. Best of luck!
100% positive transactions with SurfinxHI, bigole, 1madman, collectorcoins, proofmorgan, Luke Marshall, silver pop, golden egg, point five zero,coin22lover, alohagary, blaircountycoin,joebb21
The daily update for those that are interested in grade progressions.
A few more labels to the pile, another 500 ASEs graded. Not a lot of AGEs showing up.
I love these reports! thanks for updating us