A few high power Simpson and other Sept 2020 auction results compared to their past auction prices
WinLoseWin
Posts: 1,706 ✭✭✭✭✭
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A few high power Simpson and other Sept 2020 auction results compared to their past auction prices,
by someone not in the know.
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Links to the auctions sorted with highest prices first:
Simpson Part 1
https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?No=0&Ns=Price%7C1&N=3183+790+231+4294944567
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2020 September 18 - 20 US Coins Signature Auction 1319
https://coins.ha.com/c/search-results.zx?Ns=Price%7c1&N=3183+790+231+4294944693&ic4=SortBy-071515
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Was curious how healty the ultra expensive end of the market is based on the Simpson sale and other expensive lots from the Sep 2020 auction. Many of the latter from the James Dines "Original Goldbug" Collection. So checked some of the top prices realized that had previous auction sales listed for the exact same coin in the last 20 years.
Even though I don't play in that area, it has always fascinated me. Many coins in this end of the market are historically interesting regardless of the value. That is partly why I don't ingore them just because I can't afford them.
Then there are others that are condition rarities where slightly lesser grade examples can be had for a fraction of the top grade values. Still interested in those also to see the market dynamics and any effect on lesser markets that I may be in or, if nothing else, it can often to be entertaining (or shocking) to see some of the seemingly ridiculous prices. Interesting to see what direction prices on such pieces ending up going from there or have been in the past.
Many prices skyrocketed from the 1990's and very early 2000's into the roughly 2005 to 2015 period. Some of those massive changes can be seen in the auction price histories below. This is around the same time as Registry set collecting began and likely a significant factor in many price jumps. Appears some went beyond prices that were possible to sustain further growth.
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= = Gut impressions -Looks like the high end market is still alive and seems somewhat healthy, even if at lower numbers on the biggest stuff from their previous highs. Many coins are, so far, doing better than I expected considering the number of recent top players who are not in the market anymore and their collections instead being sold in close timing. Plus many of the last previous auction prices for those coins were all time records with room to come down.
= = Market was already showing drops on many ultra expensive items before 2020 came along, though still with a number of stable or even some record setting prices. The Simpson and Sept auction did not look to me to be too terribly much different than that trend in spite of the 2020 challenges.
= = Watching the live auction, it seemed under $50,000 coins were more likely to be fairly strong but I did not check deeply into that. I did not watch the patterns, so have no real sense as to how they did other than a few of the most expensive.
= = There may be some bargains for those in that part of the six and seven figure market, or will it keep trending down or even go up? It is at least a better deal to win something wanted for a collection at a lower price now, and in weaker 2020 dollars, than what it brought a few years, or longer ago when the dollar was that much stronger.
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Results of some of the biggest Simpson and other 9-2020 auction coins compared to past prices for the exact same coin:
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A few prices that went down:
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Down 47.2 percent in 6 years
1810 1/2 C C-1, B-1, R.2, MS66+ Brown PCGS. CAC at $57,600 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2014 $109,250.00
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Down 45 percent in 12 years
1795 1C Lettered Edge, S-74, B-2, Low R.4, MS65+ Red and Brown PCGS. CAC at $114,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2008 $207,000.00; 5-1999 $26,450.00
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Down 28.3 percent in 13 years
1795 H10C V-6, LM-9, R.4, MS67 PCGS at $132,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2007 $184,000.00
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Down 12.5 percent in 6 years
1801 H10C V-1 and V-2, LM-2, R.4, MS66+ PCGS. CAC at $144,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 10-2014 as NGC-67 $164,500.00; 8-1998 $112,500.00
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Down 14.9 percent in 6 years
1796 10C JR-1, R.3, SP67 PCGS at $750,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 6-2014 $881,250.00; 5-1999 $161,000.00; 10-1985 $44,000
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Down 10 percent in 6 MONTHS
1901-S 25C MS67+ PCGS. CAC at $162,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 3-2020 $180,000.00; 1-2005 $149.500.00; 6-2001 $77,625.00
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Down 32 percent in 7 years
1813 50C O-107a, R.1, MS67 PCGS. CAC at $96,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 11-2013 $141,000.00
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Down 10.6 percent in 5 years
1795 $1 Flowing Hair, Three Leaves, Silver Plug, B-7, BB-18, R.3, MS65+ PCGS. CAC at $630,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 9-2015 $705,000.00; 4-1983 at $90,000.00; 10-1973 at $29,000; 10-1964 approximately $1,960 (700 British Pounds) ; 1795 for $1 (Probably direct from the US Mint to William Strickland and what later became known as the St. Oswald collection)
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Down 22.5 percent in 3 years
1829 $5 Small Diameter, Small Date, BD-2, R.7 -- Obverse Repaired, Cleaned -- NGC Details. AU at $93,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 9-2017 $120,000.00
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Down 30.4 percent in 7 years
1913-S $5 gold PCGS-66 at $180,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2013 $258,500.00; 1-2011 $218,500.00; 1-1999 $156,500.00
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Down 16.5 percent in 13 years
1795 $10 13 Leaves, BD-1, High R.3, MS64 NGC at $288,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 2-2007 $345,000.00
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Down 54 percent in 12 years
1859 1C Double-Headed Indian Cent, Judd-229a, Snow-PT5, Unique, MS63 PCGS at $90,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2008 $195,500.00; 10-2000 $33,350.00
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Down 33.6 percent in 11 years
1876 T$1 Trade Dollar, Judd-1476, Pollock-1629, R.8, PR65+ Red Cameo PCGS. CAC at $84,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 5-2009 $126,500.00
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Some that went up or about the same:
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Up 45 percent in 15 years
1894-S 10C Branch Mint PR66 PCGS at $1,500.000 - - - Previously auctioned as PCGS Proof-65 at 1-2005 $1,035,000.00; 8-1992 as PCGS Proof-64 at $165,000. (Less than the record for the other 66, but about the same ratio result as when they both auctioned in 2005 less than 3 months apart.)
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Up 78.7 percent in 6 years
1918/7-S 25C FS-101 MS64+ Full Head PCGS. CAC at $336,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 6-2014 $188,000.00; 8-2012 at $253,000; 1-2000 at $149,500
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Basically the same price after 11 years
1855-D G$1 MS64 PCGS at $144,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2009 $143,750.00; 1-2006 $109,250.00
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Up 20.4 percent in 12 years
1861-D G$1 MS64+ PCGS at $180,000 - - - Previously auctioned as NGC-65 at 1-2008 $149,500.00; as NGC-65 6-2006 $138,000.00
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Up 11.3 percent in 12 years
1808 $2 1/2 BD-1, R.4, MS63 PCGS. CAC at $576,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 11-2008 $517,500.00; 3-2007 $425,500; 7-2004 $322,000
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Up 13 percent in 8 years
1804 $5 Small Over Large 8, BD-7, R.4, MS64 PCGS. CAC at $78,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2012 $69,000.00
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Up 16.7 percent in 8 years
1908-S $5 MS68 PCGS at $192,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 8-2012 $164,500.00; 1-2011 $126,500
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Up 32.8 percent in 9 years
1914 $5 gold PCGS-66 CAC at $168,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2011 $126,500.00
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Up 43.5 percent in 8 years
1916-S $5 MS66+ PCGS. CAC at $132,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2012 $92,000.00; 1-2008 $57,500.00
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Up 28.4 percent in 10 years
1904 $20 PR65 Cameo PCGS at $96,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 10-2010 $74,750.00
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All time record again - Up 15.2 percent in 7 years
1907 $20 High Relief, Wire Rim, PR69 NGC at $660,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 9-2013 $573,000.00; 11-2005 $534,750.00; raw 10-2001 $115,000
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Same price as 13 years ago:
1932 $20 MS66 PCGS at $138,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 4-2010 $126,500.00; 1-2007 $138,000.00
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Up 12.4 percent in 12 years
1854 $20 Kellogg & Co. MS65 PCGS. CAC at $336,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 1-2008 as PCGS-64 $299,000.00; 3-2006 as PCGS-64 $310,500.00; 8-1982 $28,000.00
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Up 20.4 percent in 12 years
1872 50C Half Dollar, Judd-1200, Pollock-1340, Low R.7, PR65 Deep Cameo PCGS at $90,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 11-2008 $74,750.00; 8-1998 $26,450.00
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Up 39.1 percent in 12 years
1916 10C Mercury Dime, Judd-1984, Pollock-2044, Unique, PR64 PCGS. CAC at $192,000 - - - Previously auctioned at 7-2008 $138,000.00
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Heritage just doesn't seem to have the right lighting on many of their videos in my opinion, but this 1854 $20 Kellogg & Co seemed to show the luster better than most of them:
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNrdJDdxj2k
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Comments
Nice write up. Thanks for taking the time to compile the assessment and share. It would be an interesting exercise, but I would think you could find as many that went up in value too.
My 20th Century Gold Major Design Type Set ---started : 11/17/1997 ---- completed : 1/21/2004
I did. There are two sections in the above post. The second shows those that went up among the top prices realized.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Interesting analysis @WinLoseWin
Not the pool I swim in, but I appreciate you posting your thoughts and research. It's always good to see an unbiased look at any part of the market
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
coin collecting can be an expensive hobby
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Thank you for the write up!
U.S. Type Set
Seems to suggest on the surface that early copper a bit weak, silver in between and gold a bit better. Patterns seemed to be all over the map. But overhaul the auction, I think shows a healthy market despite all the economic disruption this year.
I think it demonstrates what a horrible investment coins can be. Even the gainers are largely washes after calculating for inflation. That's not even counting the hit for auction fees.
Interestingly one of the better results, the 1894-S Barber Dime, had to rely on grade inflation to help it along.
Thanks for posting and doing the research.
Latin American Collection
I completely disagree.
First off who says Simpson was a savvy investor? If one is not a wise investor does that denigrate the entire hobby?
What about coins not being an investment at all? What if it is solely deemed a hobby? Most hobbies don't allow one to recoup their monies spent. With coins you can get reimbursed, sometimes m=come out ahead and sometimes not.
I choose to straddle both sides and attempt to buy what I like and what I believe will be a good investment depending on each individual coin.
The half cent was from The Missouri Cabinet sale. It shows what can happen when billionaires get caught up in auction fever. I sat next to a major copper dealer who said lay off some of these lots, you will thank me later.
You completely disagreed that coins can be a horrible investment. Then you implied that Mr. Simpson might not have been a savvy investor. But if he or other investors aren’t savvy, than it appears that coins can, indeed, be a horrible investment.
Next you raised the issue of coins not being an investment at all. That’s a different topic than was raised by the OP and about which you originally disagreed. By the way, he said “what a horrible investment coins can be.” He didn’t say coins are always a horrible investment. Of course he was correct, even though coins can be a great investment, too.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Yes, that 1804 dime looked like a bad loss, but as you said the 632k was at a market peak in 2008. The exact same coin sold a year and a half earlier in 2007 for $161,000. Going up 4x in price in that span of time is a heck of a jump.
The 329k on its own was still a strong price for the Pogue coin especially considering a finer example, NGC-63, "appeared out of nowhere to become the only Mint State example currently known" to quote Heritage. They auctioned that one in 2013 for 367k.
Timing and luck can make a big difference on a particular coin's or collection's return. Then there are coins that sell low in an up market or high in a down market. It can be a moving target with infrequently traded rarities. A record price after a fast rise can leave room to fall. Had Pogue got it the year before and no finer example appeared, the return could have looked great.
If you can afford it and enjoy it then that's what matters whether a big time collector all the way down to the smallest of collecctors. Each gets to decide for themselves what that is for them.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Sounds like a wise dealer.
Seems like most of the Missouri Cabinet half cents that I have noticed being auctioned again have sold for less, sometimes cosiderably less. Those original auction prices were mostly incredibly strong and record setting. There have been at least some though that have since brought even more.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
My comments were not meant to be specific to Simpson. Over the years several posters have posted here and on other coin forums seeking advice on "investing" in rare coins. My point was this sale shows what a financial mine field coin investments can be. Even more disconcerting are the relatively large losses in spite of the quality. Many of the pieces were among the finest known. Usually this segment of the market out performs the others (or at least this has historically been the case for truly rare coins - not moderns). There is also the possibility that you can make a profit; however, it is impossible to accurately predict which coins these will be, and with rising auction fees, inflation, and new tax rules that bar like kind exchanges for numismatics, the opportunities to profit financially seem far fewer. This says nothing about the hobby end. If you want to spend hundreds of thousand or millions in coins for fun, that's fine. Just don't do it with the assumption that there is going to be another buyer in the future who values the coin as much as you do.
I think it’s fair to say that most savvy coin investors have not had stellar returns over the past couple of decades. Is that actually news to anyone?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
“Up 45 percent in 15 years
1894-S 10C Branch Mint PR66 PCGS at $1,500.000 - - - Previously auctioned as PCGS Proof-65 at 1-2005 $1,035,000.00; 8-1992 as PCGS Proof-64 at $165,000. (Less than the record for the other 66, but about the same ratio result as when they both auctioned in 2005 less than 3 months apart.)”
I sold the same grade (Eliasberg coin) this Simpson coin was in about 12 years ago for around $1,900,000 in a private treaty deal (reported by Heritage in the Simpson description). So, seems to me to be continued weakness in this great rarity as well. Simpson could have done OK though considering the upgrading - I have no idea on that.
Just my 2 cents
Wondercoin
@WinLoseWin...Thanks for the tabulation and information. Not a level I play on, but always interesting. Cheers, RickO
While I'd rather invest my money elsewhere, it still shows how decent coins can be sold for something, whether it's up or down. That "something" can be very fickle, even if it's covered with approval stickers on a high graded coin.
It all comes down on how you value ownership and enjoy it while it lasts. If you had a coin for awhile, sell it at a 15% loss but enjoyed the hell out of it while you had it, then maybe you didn't lose after all.
10-4,
My Instagram picturesErik
My registry sets
I would wager if these coins were sold privately and with patience they all would have done well. It's too bad about the circumstances of the sale. Having to sell quickly will always have some negative results.
That was a solid price on the 94-S. I guesstimated $1.1-1.3M before the sale
I thought more, but obviously you win. I was probably influenced too much by the strong $1.32 million DLH paid for the 63 last year. Granted, I didn’t like the Simpson coin as a 66, so the disparity in price wasn’t as much as it seems. But I still figured at least $1.5 hammer.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The trimes did well.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set