Opinions on buying (finally) a 1916 Standing Liberty Quarter now
jakemeister1000
Posts: 8 ✭
Hi folks,
This all boils down to whether to bite the bullet now and get a VF-25/30 or XF40 1916 Standing Liberty Quarter and how much to factor in toning and CAC labels. So reply now if you don't want to read the rest...or don't reply at all lol.
This is my first (long) post! I'm a boomer who collected coins into my teens but fell away from it and am now getting back. I've decided to do a 1916 mint set because I really love that year as it includes the Barber coinage mixed in with the Mercury dime, Standing Liberty quarter and Walking Liberty half.
Although this is a hobby, I am also quite mindful of the LT investment potential of the coins. I'm also trying to make sense of coin values and whether now is or is not the time to spend more discretionary savings on coins.
PCGS investment curves suggest that the 01/02 grades appreciate the most, but I'm not a fan. It fills the hole, but that's about all it does. I suppose some folks do it that way as they can then put their cash into other nicer graded coins.
The AU58s and up also appreciate generally, but cost more than I want to spend on one coin. I'm looking at dealer coins in the mid ranges.
There are a few VF-25/30s and XF40s out there in the $7-8K range. Probably the nicest one in terms of condition is a nonCAC XF40 (#39392925). It looks to me like a higher grade coin that got downgraded because of the level of toning. Does anyone think the toning is too much?
On the other side is a CAC VF25 in an older holder with less detail. (Not sure if folks
So, what would you do? Would you just go for the P01 and be done? Would you wait for the economy to stabilize before throwing more $$ into coins? If you were going to go forward, how much would you care about tone?
I hope I'm not creating a mess of a post, here. Just wondering how folks with more experience than me think this all through.
J
Comments
cert page
Max TrueView - 11-15mb - slow connections/data conscious need not apply.
Click me for Large - less than 1 mb
That was fast! Yup, that's the coin. The others don't have the Trueview.
I personally don’t think the toning is too much. I actually like it quite a bit.
In the end it really comes down to what you like the most.
A very pleasing 25 may be the better option than an ugly 40. A higher grade doesn’t always mean a better coin. Yes higher grades have more design detail remaining. But eye appeal is very important when it comes to choosing a coin.
I’d suggest spending at least a year looking at as many 1916’s as you can just to develop your eye for what you want. Then start hunting for “the one.”
I would get familiar with the pricing that fits my budget (look at CF, CPG). I would go to my CDN app look at CPG and auction data get feel why one went higher than another studying photos and grading nook and analyze why or whether the buyer got hosed or a good deal. Find a nice appealing no problem piece that meets my standards / budget whether auction or off the bourse PCGS of course.
One player I know (does shows and online) has 4 VG08-XF40. Other key dates 1913 50c, 1926-S 10c. Occasionally he will retail one (between cost and retail) at a show or from his online store. Then the thrill of the hunt to replace for inventory. He does various other 20th century key dates VG08 to MS65. Maintains a 20th century type set 4 deep AU50-MS65. Does Classic Commems MS64 -MS66. Slabbed Gold -Classic,world,mod AU50- MS70 (mods 69-70). Does nothing below the year 1900.
In the TV that's a nice looking coin. I might be afraid that the obverse is actually darker than the photo.
I don't have any experience with TV's and coins in-hand.
Nice coin!
From what I have seen I would wager that coin is quite a bit darker in hand.
@jakemeister1000....Get the best one you can stretch to afford, and, that you personally are attracted to. It is important to be happy/satisfied with the coin you purchase....Cheers, RickO
I can see a P01 for common dates or even semi-keys. But I wouldn't put a PO1 high on the list for potential appreciation on a 1916 SLQ....nor a FR02 or AG03. A 1916 silver mint set? Where the only hard coin to get is the SLQ. I would have an issue with a "set" that is basically the ONE coin. And imo the "glory" years for key dates like this one are behind us. Key date collectors and dealers ran them up considerably over the past 2 decades. There are many ripe areas still remaining that haven't been run up. It takes time and research to figure them out. But it's not that hard. In any event, I'd wait longer before pulling the string on a 1916 SLQ. Spend another year researching and poking around the hobby.....and on this forum. Get your feet fully immersed again.
"One player I know (does shows and online) has 4 VG08-XF40. Occasionally he will retail one (between cost and retail) at a show or from his online store. Then the thrill of the hunt to replace for inventory."
Which is an example of why I'm leery about key dates.....where "players" stock multiple specimens, boosting up the price for these newer collectors looking for just one. I'd rather collect something where I'd be lucky to find a single specimen at a show....not dozens of them. Learn a lot about the 1916's.....watch for every specimen hitting the market from here on.....keep your eyes open. When a "special" one with outstanding surfaces, toning, color, strike or whatever key feature you focus on happens to pop up....you'll know that's the one for you. And it just may be at your local or regional coin shops.
Oh...how I wish that isn't the case! It reminds me of the watch world, where the safe has the good pieces hidden away and only given to the "good" customers. Thanks for all of your advice! It helps to hear folks say, "slow down!"
There's a lot of chat on here about whether the next generation will be coin collectors. That said, I wouldn't focus a lot on investment potential, I'd buy one you like for however long you plan to keep it, realizing it may go down. One I've looked at many times and not pulled the trigger is an 01-S Barber quarter.
If you like the coin and you're not spending grocery money to buy it, then do what makes you happy.
But...
I'd look for a coin with enough detail so that I can fully appreciate the design. For me, that's usually XF and up.
I like toning on coins. I think it gives them character. But do everything you can to learn what natural toning looks like on the coin type or series you plan to buy. Also, if you think the coin you are looking at may have been held from a higher grade because of the toning, you should probably pass and look for another coin.
I like your reasons for focusing on 1916, but you've picked a tough year to collect.
I suggest you keep looking.
I like the coin with the TrueView, but I doubt the toning has as much to do with the grade as the numerous scattered hits on the fields (walls?), arms, shield, and above the QU in "QUARTER". Any 1916 is going to pretty darn impressive, but I wouldn't want one in low grades either. VF would be my minimum.
Don't settle though. Find one that speaks to you and you'll be happy with it for decades. Buyer's remorse is an ugly thing.
BTW, Welcome to the craziness.
PCGS Auction Prices Realized is a good tool for looking at price trends and variance.
You can filter by grade, and it's fairly complete back to 2010 or so.
With the auction photos and slabs, you should be able to track many individual coins across time.
https://www.pcgs.com/auctionprices/details/1916-standing-liberty-ms/5705
I personally think it’s a great looking piece and one to be proud of. A very original looking 25👍
https://pcgs.com/cert/39238672
Now, this one I would be happy to buy for $7500!
https://images.pcgs.com/TrueView/39238672_Large.jpg
If you like to collect coins ... go for the one you like the best and can afford ... but ... forget about it as an "investment".
For me, it's just hard to buy stuff that loses value when it's for fun.
I have a couple of exceptions: camera gear and audiophile gear. I get around it by usually buying as the second owner. (It's funny to think of coins as "used coins").
I also have a small watch collection with a mix of new and used, and it hasn't made me any money, but that's also because I carefully choose watches that are likely to have continued demand. That means I pass on a lot of watch opportunities because I hate to see the depreciation.
I'm really enjoying all of the feedback on this site. It reminds me of OmegaForum (love the Moonwatch).
When in doubt... don't.
My opinion - coins are a terrible investment. I'd recommend forgetting about the "investment" aspects of coin collecting and collect what you enjoy. Whenever you sell - if you make some money great!
This is a 1917 (obviously) but I posted it just to show what a PCGS F15 looks like.
Great transactions with oih82w8, JasonGaming, Moose1913.
I think if this was an issue I was serious about buying and I had settled on an amount I was going to spend, your $7-8k, I'd look at all the PCGS graded VF-XF coins I could locate and buy the most appealing one. that amount of money for me would mean I'd have to see the coin in-hand. strangely, it seems to be a major offense to even think of the "I" word, and I don't buy any of the crap spewed by so many about "discretionary funds" and "it's only a Hobby" even though both things are probably true. all the same, you'd have to be a lunatic to be willing to lose money when only a minimum of diligence will earn a profit or break even. such is the case with this issue.
you can buy a PO1 or a little higher and you'll always be able to sell it, but you'll also assure yourself of a 10-20% loss. why would you do that?? it seems much smarter to me to search carefully for awhile, find a coin you'll not only enjoy owning but one that others would enjoy owning. you'll probably profit at the point of sale.
why is it viewed as a bad thing to think like that??
It's not wrong to make an effort to find a coin that others will want to buy later.
It is wrong to expect to make money in a market where the prices are declining over time
(due to decreased demand, reduced number of collectors).
Even if it goes up in value - and that's a big if - you will be lucky to keep up when the stock market over time. While it might happen, if you truly have trouble buying stuff for fun that loses value, collect pictures of coins.
You will be happier in the long run if you consider coins in the same category as camera and audio gear.
It is a hobby.
It is wrong to expect to make money in a market where the prices are declining over time.
an interesting statement that needs to be viewed through a lens focused from 1998-2012.
This is a difficult decision. The coin has a low mintage, but it's not rare. You can easily find one in pretty much any grade at any time without much effort. One Platinum night auction at Heritage awhile back, 17 of them went up for bid.
I'd spend time looking at a lot of them (when shows come back, hopefully soon) and get a feel of what you like before spending that kind of money. I have spent years looking for particular coins. Once a contact turned me onto one of them after eight years. Another one literally fell into my lap.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
well if we are doing fantasy; i ran into the ms66+fh on the bay the other day whilst surfing pcgs holders and went into pinnaclerarities' inventory and i'm still scraping some of my brain off the ceiling.
i won't mention numerous items of their inventory so as not to derail the op searching out a very respectable vf-xf.
Because people often lose money when they sell so they have to rationalize the loss by focusing on the value of ownership, or that the money they spent was discretionary, or they weren't concerned about making money, etc.
If you're concerned about investment and/or maintaining the value spent then I would choose the CAC stickered coin in the old holder. People look for that combination and will protect your investment. Here's the key though: it has to have eye appeal.
Here is an imagine of that earlier coin not taken in PhotoGrade:
https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/mM0AAOSwdxRextYJ/s-l1600.jpg
17 in one night? Wow! I haven't made up my mind...it's really great to hear everyone's thinking, especially the range of perspectives.
We call that cherry-picking data. Why not use a lens focused on 2012-2020? Or 1989 to 1995?
The fact is you can't expect to make money on a hobby purchase. Whether you do or not is only clear in retrospect.
When spending $7k, it's rarely a good idea to buy the first available coin. I'd recommend browsing through Coinfacts, Heritage archives, etc. to get a sense of what's out there. Then be patient. FWIW.
the 01/02's do not even show a readable date
if you are happy with one of those, maybe learn the diagnostics and search for one yourself
many have been cherrypicked from pictures of groups on eBay
of course you may spend a couple hundred hours and still not have one
I'm late to the party, and might have missed something ... but a lot of comments are being thrown around about the Standing Liberty, for which I am a huge fan of the series ... however you discussed it as part of a 1916 year set you wanted to build.
That's a great year for a set, and a wonderful undertaking.
What are you looking at completing that set in, grade wise? Are you doing one per type and year, or a year and mint complete set? What other coins do you have, and what level of toning do they possess?
One of the reasons I ask is because sets that fit and flow well tend to have a greater satisfaction than just "filling a hole", no matter how "key date" that hole is, and no matter what grade the set is. That satisfaction tends to equate with other factors that let us sleep better at night after justifying a real purchase. And typically, with practice and a good eye, this will equate to a greater ROI from your purchases.
Note: In this hobby, I use ROI as "Return Of Investment", not "Return On Investment". I don't expect to make money on numismatics, but I hope not to be throwing good money for naught.
Anyway, a VF/EF may not fit well in a set that is predominately Unc and an AG3 is sometimes an eye sore for the well assembled set of EF/AU's. The same is true for toning.
Maybe, if you haven't started on that set, you should look at a few others in the set first, and move slowly towards a 1916 SLQ that compliments everything else you are doing.
Oh, and because this became a little bit of a SLQ thread, I went back and pulled a picture. I have never owned a 1916 (yet), but I do have a set I have been working on (and off) for almost 30 years. Here's my 1919-S. I really need to pull these from the vault again sometime and re-image them.
“We are only their care-takers,” he posed, “if we take good care of them, then centuries from now they may still be here … ”
Todd - BHNC #242
Here is my two cents. Years ago, it was a coin i always wanted to own, had a low grade vg once, but in 2011. A friend of mine and I were attending baltimore and the late jay cline had a couple , i was eyeing a PCGS 58 and also a pcgs 63FH. Both were nice, we worked out a deal with jay on buying the pair, one for me, and one for my buddy. The 63FH was 20k, and the 58 was 12K. I was actually going to get the 58, but said to myself, i dont think i can live with myself if i pass on the 63. Which ever one I decided my friend would take the other. He is rich, I am not so it was a big stretch for me, but I went with the 63. The 16 is a popular coin, but not a rare coin, over the years the value of the 63fh had come down several thousand $. I ended up selling it as I needed the funds to help cover an 01-s quarter purchase, which i still have. The thing is, my friend who took the 58 is probably closer to break even value wise and is much better off than i was buying the 63, especially if I still had it today. Even more so, i think if you purchased a nice VF+ to XF at todays lower values, you would probably be good shape. My friend still has his, and one day i may get it.
I am not a fan of the XF-40 coin. I would not buy a 1or a 2 coin. Take your time. They will always be there.
The fact is you can't expect to make money on a hobby purchase.
there are things you can do to ensure you lose money and there are things you can do to at least stay even, I think that's what I said and wanted to say.
Just want to say thanks again to everyone for your comments and advice. Much appreciated!!
Why not try a rare coin?
Wait for a CAC one. As somebody just getting back in, you don't wanna get stuck with a dog. One with CAC can be a dog in terms of eye appeal, but overall surfaces and technical aspects of grading, is very unlikely to be so.
This hobby has always rewarded a discerning, patient eye. With such a large purchase, you should be just that, discerning and patient.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
This! A CAC coin will help protect your investment. Here is the pop report:
https://caccoin.com/pop/?issue=Quarter&type=Standing%20Liberty,%20Type%201&desg=MS
Also if you intend to present this year as a set, then some level of consistency in appearance among the coins is desirable. What is the grade range where this makes sense for your budget? Also, what is your time horizon? This will likely take time to assemble to find the quality and match you will seek. Do you have the patience? Don’t settle to fill holes.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Should I always assume that a coin without a CAC sticker would not receive one? Like the coin I shared at the start of this forum...I'm assuming that one would not because of the uneven tone and the surface marks...based on the comments above.
It is more likely than not that any coin of significant value has been reviewed at CAC. Others may disagree.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
At higher valuations like this, absolutely. It costs $15 for a professional dealer to submit it to CAC and if it stickers, it likely receives a 10-20% premium, which is far, far more than $15. For collector members, CAC does not charge if it does not sticker, making it a zero downside move, outside of shipping costs.
"It's like God, Family, Country, except Sticker, Plastic, Coin."
@jakemeister1000
Prices are coming down; no need to rush it. Also for a few grand more you could have a nice AU FH or MS FH example. While scarce compared to the rest of the series, it isn’t exactly rare and there are plenty of pieces out there. Hold out for a special piece with superb eye appeal regardless of the grade.
My advice is to seek out a knowledgeable dealer to view auction lots for you. CAC is a good thing to have, but not necessarily a deal breaker if you truly know your series or have an expert dealer lot view for you. I highly recommend the latter. There are several expert forum members that offer or have offered their services in the past.
I will be flamed for this, but some times buying a coin with wholesome surfaces that is low end for the grade in NGC or other plastic without a sticker and then downgrading, crossing it to PCGS, and stickering can be lucrative. In this business plastic can have negative value. Use market inefficiencies and quirks to your advantage. This is harder to do if you aren’t an expert in your series, but that is also where working with a trusted expert could help you.