Gold buy now?
Attumra
Posts: 182 ✭✭✭
Just wondering if I should buy more gold I hear a lot of 1% are now buying big? I only have about 5k to spend. Anyone know good deals ? I mainly have silver but it seems to me gold is going to burst soon and hit record highs. * TY
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Beware any investment advice on this forum. That’s always rule #1.
My personal thought: gold will only stay as high as it is while people are scared of corona and it’s effects on the economy. If that goes long term then gold will slowly rise (overall). If it gets resolved “soon” then gold will slowly drop (overall) to where it likely was a year or so ago.
If I knew what gold was going to do I’d give up my day job and sell everything in my 401k and either go long or short gold.
Guess that all depends on the amount of gold you currenlty own. imho
Gold has everything to do with sovereign debts, monetary supplies (M0,M1,M2,M3), confidence in govts, economic conditions including economic business confidence, real interest rates (inflation vs. deflation) and other misc factors. Corona in and of itself is a non-issue.
If you weren't on board with gold back in 2015-2018 at the sub-$1400 level, not sure why you'd be thinking about getting in now. There is potentially still a "C" leg down here to come into the typical summer doldrums low of July-August. But who knows for sure? After July 4th has often been a good way to avoid the summer crash, though that didn't work in 2018 as gold dumped into mid-August....or in 2011 when gold rallied hard from June-September. After watching gold cycles for the past 20 yrs, I'd be leery of getting excited to buy in late June....though that did work in June 2011....though only for 2-3 months.
Seek out a personal.
I add to my stack quarterly. I’m not really a gold bug per se, but I enjoy having a pile.
Stick with gold, not silver.
Dave
A friend of mine was excited to buy gold in May 2011 at $1550/oz. I cautioned them about chasing the 2-3 year run up from $682 (Oct 2008 bottom). I suggested they wait for the next large correction. By July gold had jumped again into the $1600's. Having "missed" the rally so far they wanted to take part. So in they went at $1650. And by "we" I mean his wife and kids were the one pushing him to do it because they had seen so much turmoil in stocks and real estate from 2008-2011....while gold and silver were soaring. They wanted to be "in." So they put in about $20K in gold and silver. Everything "looked great" as gold went over $1900. And then not so great on the next quick dip to $1537 in Sept. Gold would bounce back to $1802 but that was it. Then 11 months of moving sideways into a final secondary high of $1795 in late Sept 2012.
I suggested to my friend in September of 2012 at $1735 gold right before that final high to get out without harm. Things just didn't have the feeling and look of August 2011 anymore. But they still wanted to ride the dragon to $2000 and higher. And they "didn't need the money." Then came the 9th month slide, with April 2013 being the crash month. By that time it was too late for them. Then the plunge to $1181 in June 2013. I didn't hear from them again until they "needed the money" for college tuition in 2014/2015. And they sold out in the $1200 range. Pretty typical story I'd bet. Buy high on euphoria....sell low on complete disgust.
Yeah, gold could run up to $2000-$2500 from here. And it might not. Silver is way under-valued at a 95-1 gold to silver ratio (it will return to a normalized 45-65). But silver doesn't usually play well during recessions. The stock market "could" run up to 35,000 from here as well....and it might not. A CFP will steer you away from gold and hard assets.....and straight towards the usual cookbook collection of stocks, bonds, and RE. If you want advice on gold timing, a CFP (or any FP for that matter) is not the one to seek out.
@Roadrunner....Excellent advice.... I did a lot of gold stacking when gold was in the low to mid hundreds....a little in the high hundreds. Stayed away after that....Riding high as far as current cost/value....I did sell some Britannia sets at the peak ($1900/oz) and recaptured a portion of my investment...I am happy right now...
Cheers, RickO
From today's Legends Market report:
"Remember, the coins you are buying today, are for TOMORROW’s profits. FACTS: hard assets likes coins and gold have out performed this stock market and are a proven safer haven. Rare coins did not go down 50%!"
As a collector, I'm buying coins for my personal enjoyment and I know that they are NOT a good investment...just like I'm buying a house to make a home not to make money...I've purchased enough houses to know that after taxes, repairs, improvements and opportunity cost it's really hard to make money on real estate...
Over the last 30 years the S&P is up +813% and Gold is up +391%...not sure what period of time that Ms. Sperber is looking at...
I think Laura should refrain from financial advice and stick to coins.
I think what Laura meant was "hard assets like coins and gold have out performed this RECENT stock market" referring to the recent downslide that has since TEMPORARILY recovered.
Personally, I believe silver is screaming "Buy Me!" Anytime gold is highly priced it usually comes back down to earth. Additionally, while the FED long ago ran out of effective cures, its bag of tricks to temporarily fool fundamentals seems to be infinite.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Those numbers seem reasonable from June 1990 - June 2020...........30 yrs. (Dow from 2900 to 25,871 (8.92X increase).......and gold from $369 to $1742 (4.72X increase). Stocks win this one.
But why not look at 50 yrs since it's the big picture that counts.
Dow from 683 to 25,871 (37.88x)...........and gold 36.56 to $1742 (47.64x). Gold wins the 50 yr bet. And June 1970 is not all that far from August 1971 when the US came off the gold standard. And even using gold at $42.71 in August 1971 still is a 40.78X gain.....gold still wins.
Gold was "highly "priced" in 2008 at $1033. While it did have a big dip to $682 lasting only several months....it tricked a lot of people into letting go......before it rebounded to $1923 within 3 yrs. It usually takes a pretty big dip, to set up the next big rise in any speculative investment....stocks included.
I think people are buying gold because they are afraid of the rampant deficit spending on the part of the federal government with the resulting ballooning national debt and there is no end in sight.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I maintain a silver and gold position of x ounces just in case....
However I am mainly seeking items which yield a keystone markup or at least cost plus 50 pct. June retail sales strong with margin between those 2 parameters. Understanding markets and what will sell is key.
At the coin show in Salt Lake yesterday I overheard a conversation between a dealer and potential customer.
Customer: "How do you think gold is looking?"
Dealer: "I think it's poised to go really high - probably $2500 sometime around the election."
He might be right, but there was an awful lot of gold in the dealer's case for sale and it was all based on the current spot price.
Premiums are generally on the obscene level right now. Consider a gold exchange traded fund as an alternative. Read the prospectus first!!
I’m sure that is true as well. There is more than one cause and motivation in the market.
The debt problem is far from being a new phenomenon. People are currently buying gold for one of two reasons: either they expect prices to go higher (speculation) or their faith in the central bank is moving lower (insurance).
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
The debt problem isn't new but it's increasing at a far faster rate. Also, gold investors or speculators are losing faith in the central bank which is why they expect prices to go higher.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
I believe its going up and even if its only by a couple hundred I still make out. Or I could just invest in Twinkies There golden too?
You're ignoring the compounding yield in stocks during that period. Stocks won by a lot if you include dividend reinvestment. Compounding yield is one of the the big arguments against gold in any longer time frame.
Between June 1970 and June 2020, the total DOW return (dividends reinvested) is 19,600% (196x) and the total S&P500 return (dividends reinvested) is 17,100% (171x). Burying gold (4760%)
From June 1980 to June 2020, total DOW return is 9800% and total S&P500 return is 7452%. - Gold 185%
From June 1990 to June 2020, total DOW return is 1768% and total S&P 500 return is 1500% - Gold 396%
From June 2000 to June 2020, total DOW return is 300% and S&P500 return is 211% - Gold return 500%
It's actually only the short time from (2000 to 2020) that Gold wins). Magic of compounding.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@Roadrunner,
Thanks for sharing your story about the friend. In a nutshell, they did not sell at the right time. They might have not needed the money at that point, but that should not be the sole factor in off-loading investment gold.
Right now, there are a number of people that bought gold 3-5 years ago that could make a profit selling right now. Should they sell some of their holdings now or will there be more upsides to come? No one really knows for sure as it could go either way (up or down).
I appreciate the numbers analysis performed here regarding how gold outperformed the stock market in the last 50 years, but not in the last 30 years. Both came out winners, though. I was under the illusion that gold outperforms the stock market if given at least a 20 years span. Now I see that is not the case. However, this does not mean one should choose stocks over gold as both do not peak at the same time or slump at the same time. Having both means a diversified portfolio, which weathers well in the ups and downs of the individual investments.
BST: Tennessebanker, Downtown1974, LarkinCollector, nendee
Stocks won't buy a goat in Kurdistan.
So is your point that this dealer should have priced all his gold at $2500/oz to fall in line with his forecast? And by not doing so, they're some sort of shyster? What does the amount of gold in any single coin dealer's bourse floor case have to do with the world's gold market? I fail to see any correlation. Certainly, if that dealer were pricing their gold at $2500 they'd have no buyers. Not a great business model unless you want to speculate with your entire inventory in an all or nothing manner. It does work at times for those with great conviction and staying power.
Both came out winners, though. I was under the illusion that gold outperforms the stock market if given at least a 20 years span.
It is easy to find numerous 10+ yr periods where gold out-performed stocks. That's the point. It's never just one or the other.....2000-2011 was one such period. If you take the most powerful rare coins since 1970, they outperformed both stocks and gold.....appreciating approx 50-100X in that period. But you had to go after incredible gems, pop top choice/gem type coins, key dates, etc. Run of the mill stuff or even "decent" stuff got smoked by gold.
The point is that a salesman always talks his book.
If he's so sure it's going up 40% in 5 months, why wouldn't he hold it instead of sell at $2750?
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
Ridiculous comparison. You can't cherry pick coins and compare them to stock indices. Imagine if I cherry picked stocks to compare to your cherry picked coins? Amazon or Microsoft stock would crush the return of a Gem Unc chain cent purchased from the Mint for one cent.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
@jmlanzaf got it right. It’s just like the people on TV. If they really thought metals were so undervalued they wouldn’t be trying so hard to sell you theirs.
Same reason sellers like APMEX still have products available while gold is rising: cash flow.
The time for a seller to hold his gold is during the dips.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
The people on TV are "trying hard" to sell you "their" gold at highly inflated prices. That con should just be ignored. It's irrelevant to the real market. It's of no more importance than Carlton Sheets trying to sell you Real Estate on TV. But if you want to buy your gold from Rosland capital because "you trust them" and "they'll beat anyone, guaranteed"......go for it.
The debt problem and the money supply are real concerns now. I heard the other day that the debt is up to $27 trillion. It also seems that the Federal Reserve Bank is about the only customer for new U.S. debt. It might be that the gold price will, at best, only keep up with inflation.
I have a lot of “decent stuff,” and it has not performed well. That’s according to the price guides. I might get a surprise in a major auction, but as now most of my coins have not been great performers.
I have both. A well rounded diversified portfolios should have a little gold (and silver) but it shouldn't be ALL gold and silver. I limit mine to around 5% or less.
I would sell all my gold right now if I could get the "TV prices"
History is great. Thanks for the info.
My problem, I play the game going forward and what happened in the past is not much of a predictor to future performance. As we like to say, "is 100 years of history a long enough sample"? Which is a better buy stocks or gold? Ask the public and stocks will be the overwhelming choice.
As someone who made a living trading both mediums I don't know?
While gold knows the "truth" about debt and money supply, many in power to make money decisions are convinced that MMT's claim that debt and money supply are irrelevant is a godsend. More reason to have gold.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
I'm not in the mood to stack gold at current prices, it could go up from here but it will be back down again in the future I suspect.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
If you bought classic commems or MS65 Morgan dollars at their peak you probably have lost 50% or more.
FAR MORE...look at Classic Commems in 1990
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, evn when irrefutably accurate.
I got two customers now who chased it to the brink, bought all in at 1750+, both didn't make crap. One still has his, but is looking to cash out as soon as he gets back to break even.(he apparently doesn't need the funds per say, but told me the amount of money he had invested in that at the time, could have 5x or more his money in the stock market by now)
the other ran into a financial jam and had to sell in the 1400's.
They bought this on the advice of folks on tv and radio saying you got to get into gold!!
I often get asked about investing in gold in the shop, and I always give both sides of the equation. Personally I hate precious metals, but it is easier to liquidate for cash than several others type investments. You should see some of the expression's i get when I say "I hate the stuff" . I keep precious metals moving at all times, in and out, so i am usually ok.
Gold is a defensive measure, not an answer.
Someone here once said gold is insurance.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left
Just remember, stocks are not always the best option if you don't know what to buy. Ask anyone who owned Enron....
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Like I said, defensive.
I agree. The hangover from the completely out of control gov't spending will be far worse than the virus itself, bad as it is. I plan on stacking a little more until I believe prices are too high to justify the risk. I have noticed as of late, really nice coins across the board-not just rarities-re harder and more expensive to obtain. Just last night, I lost out on a really nice '42-P WLH-not just lost, but blown away. It indeed was nice and it went for over triple bid.
gold just hit a 5 week high, hopefully you bought some before this last run up
The problem is: during inflationary times, who wants cash? During non-inflationary times, who wants gold?
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Do the opposite of this and you should come out on top. Otherwise you will be holding silver for the next 2 decades hoping to someday break even.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
BOOMIN!™
Wooooha! Did someone just say it's officially "TACO™" Tuesday????
If I wanted to buy gold today, I'm deterred due to a lack of cash. I could raise cash but I would have to sell gold to finance the purchase. I don't currently have access to the gold since most banks are closed. In addition with the banks closed I have no place to store purchases.
Now I understand catch 22.
Rust never sleeps.
I like the way that the only time you have an opinion is to expressly disagree with mine. It speaks volumes of your character. Try to be original every now and then.
No Way Out: Stimulus and Money Printing Are the Only Path Left