Population Summary: Charlotte vs. Dahlonega vs. New Orleans Half Eagles
Boosibri
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Sparked by the topic posted by @airplanenut, and as a former ardent supporter of No Motto Half Eagles, I wanted to offer up a simple table outlining the estimated populations of the three branch mints working from 1838 - 1861. The data is sourced from the extant populations in PCGS Coinfacts.
A few observations on the data:
- Yellow shading shows the low population issue for the date
- Varieties within a date have been aggregated together. The 42-C small and large dates, the 42-D large and small date/letters, and the 43-O small and large dates all are bundled together. The rarest issues for 1842 are the 1842-D Large Date and 1842-O , both with 90 estimated examples. From experience both are very rare especially in high grades.
- Charlotte is the winner in only one date, the 1838-C
- New Orleans is a real sleeper! Save for the 1840, it is the rarest half eagle for every date in which it produced coins between 1840 and 1857.
- Populations are not perfect, Charlotte seems a big high, Dahlonega and New Orleans a tad low but overall the distribution is likely about right.
- The absence of a Civil War date and the sporadic production dates certainly hurt New Orleans desirability and pricing. Relative pricing to Dahlonega and Charlotte remains low for most issues...if you can find one!
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You bring up some really good points and I have always thought that the O-mint pieces were overlooked. In my opinion, major reasons for the O-mint not being as "sexy" as either the C-or D-mints is that New Orleans produced silver coinage as well as gold and resumed production after the Civil War and into the twentieth century. I believe these two aspects make the C-and D-coins more unique to many collectors and drive demand their way.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I also think there is a huge coolness factor that if you purchase a pre-California gold rush coin from the Dahlonega or Charlotte mint it is most likely composed of gold that was mined in the southeastern US.
Coin collecting is a popularity contest. The 46-P small date is a good example. Look at 48 QE’s. The CAL is the clear winner and survival #’s aren’t that low even compared to the P.
Great examples BTW. Edit your coins are lovely.
46 SD is a good date
Latin American Collection
No motto Philly half eagles get wayyy too little love.
I agree with you!!
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/942540/no-motto-half-eagles-the-final-frontier
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/919396/a-case-for-philadelphia-no-motto-5s-lots-of-pics
Latin American Collection
Interesting analysis... Thanks for posting... Did you mean the 1844-O as being the most available?
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
one thing I have learned from collecting some of the esoteric things that interest me is that relative numbers of extant coins aren't very good indicators for pricing, it is all about demand. this data seems to bear that out. thanks for the time it took to gather the data and make the post.
While I agree that no doubt the New Orleans Half Eagle series holds several dates that have less populations remaining, I would caution using CoinFacts for current population data. Just comparing a few Charlotte vs Dahlonega dates shows contradictions to CoinFacts numbers:
Date: PCGS & NGC populations combined / Mintages / (Coinfacts "Estimated Population")
1839-C: 207 / 17,205 / (400)
1839-D: 262 / 18,939 / (150)
1844-C: 206 / 23,631 / (400)
1844-D: 540 / 88,582 / (250)
1846-C: 150 / 12,995 / (300)
1846-D: 552 / 80,292 / (265* + 125**) *D/D pop estimate; *Normal D pop estimate
Just with the three above comparisons, the certification numbers don't coincide at all with the PCGS CoinFacts estimated populations. Take the 1844-D vs 1844-C - total graded is 540 ('44-D) vs 206 ('44-C). The '44-D's mintage was 3 times more than the '44-C, yet the PCGS CoinFacts estimates the '44-D population at nearly half of the '44-C? The actual numbers just don't support the difference. I would love to know where those "300" '46-C's are hiding...
Winter has estimates in his book as well. The numbers above look pretty close to his as least for the O-mint. C and D, not sure.....
Best, SH
I kindda suspect the PCGS numbers on NO coins might be a little low. I haven't seen as much demand to slab them in the lower grades as they are not as popular as the C + D's.
As a collector of NO $5’s, I think they are a little low but not by much.
Latin American Collection
I agree with you overall Steve.
Latin American Collection
Great thread! Thanks for the analysis.
Thanks for the chart.... as with any data of this sort, it is subject to estimates gleaned from various sources. Accuracy, while appreciated, is difficult to assess in such cases. I would think the figures are certainly within the realm of acceptability given the subject. Cheers, RickO
I think that the conclusions are as follows:
Value and Desirability: New Orleans No Motto $5's are generally under rated in comparison to the C&D mints but for many of the reasons noted above and specifically from @TomB. Under valued is another question and one must identify the catalyst for increasing demand. In this series, Doug Winters books has done much good, but I struggle to see other catalysts. Dahlonega and Charlotte benefit from being defunct mints with Civil War rarities and a focus solely on gold coin production giving them a romantic appeal in a nicely contained set and they are fully valued in my opinion. New Orleans produced silver and operated for many more years with periodic starts and stops to production of individual series which hurts the overall appeal of say the No Motto $5's individually when compared to C&D.
Scarcity and Populations: New Orleans generally represents the most scarce coins for a given date. Issues like the 42-O and 47-O, along with the 55-57-O trio, are genuinely rare even if the pops are understated by 20-40 coins. The Charlotte populations are likely too high per Coinfacts by 20% specifically for issues like the 46-C. As @CharlotteDude states, find a nice 1846-C $5. @messydesk has the best circ I have ever seen! Dahlonega pops are likely 10-20% light as are New Orleans. Dahlonega has two issues which are genuinely rare, the 61-D $5 and the 42-D Large Date Large Letters, the former scarer than the latter but the 42-D much harder in high grade. Charlotte has only one coin which is truly expensive, the 42-C Small Date, and this coin is really only a perceived rarity. They are available but unjustified in their cost. An EF can reach over $15k for a coin more available that the 55-O $5 at $3,500 for the same quality. The pricing on this issue is a vestige from pre-internet eras where it was perceived to be a real rarity.
Latin American Collection
I agree with both you and @TomB about the desirability factor for New Orleans No Motto $5's, not to mention that the mint made plenty of other coins in larger formats, which makes obtaining a gold example that much more attainable, whereas there are no larger Charlotte & Dahlonega denomination options.
Regarding scarcity & population: I'm of the opinion that Coin Facts estimated populations are more like estimated shots in the dark, being further "off" than 20% on many of its population estimates. Again, taking the 1844-D and 1844-C Half Eagles -- Coin Facts states the estimated population of the 44-D Half Eagle at 250 pieces. NGC alone has graded 253 coins, and that's not taking into account the 287 that PCGS has graded... so, this posits the question - where does Coin Facts come up with a pop estimate of only 250? On the flip side, Coin Facts states that 400 1844-C Half Eagles exist out there somewhere, yet NGC has graded only 90 coins, PCGS - only 116. It seems the 250 estimate, given estimated resubmissions, would fit better with the 1844-C, and the 400 estimate with the 1844-D, or am I missing something here?
Regarding the NO Half Eagles - the '42-O, '47-O, and '55-O,'56-O & '57-Os are all legitimately rare, and I think Coin Facts numbers are actually well in line with their estimated populations. Things go askew when you look at other NO coins like the '46-O HE. Coin Facts has the estimated pop at only 90 coins, whereas NGC alone has graded 150, and PCGS comes in at 111. That's a total of 260+ coins graded. I understand numbers can be inflated w/resubmissions... but that happens with every coin and should be factored into these "estimated populations". However, I'm not convinced that those 90 '46-O HEs have all been resubmitted, on average, two more times each.
XF45 CAC Green. A Dahlonega that wouldn't look horrible alongside it is on my lower-priority shopping list to wrap up my $5 mint mark set.
Keeper of the VAM Catalog • Professional Coin Imaging • Prime Number Set • World Coins in Early America • British Trade Dollars • Variety Attribution
@messydesk I would give you AU55 money for that coin anyday
Latin American Collection
Thanks for posting all of this interesting information. Starting a collection of underappreciated NO half eagles sounds appealing.
I would just reiterate, take the PCGS/NGC populations with a grain of salt. I have spent hundreds of hours trying to correlate populations with survivor rates on gold coins of the 1830's. At this point It is impossible to definitively prove anything, but I concluded that populations overstated by as much as 2x were not unusual. On the 1838-C HE, the combined population is 250, but I agree with Coin Facts estimate of 175 survivors.
On the CoinFacts estimates being multiples higher than combined population numbers, unless they know something that we don't, I would be highly skeptical.
But I also don't think it would be prudent to try to apply blanket correlations over all dates and mint marks. There are always going to be outliers. i.e. single coins submitted 20 times, Research and analysis of individual dates would help, but that takes alot of time,
Yes it is. But prepare for decades of work. I managed to get unmessed with, eye appealing 42-O, 46-O, 51-O, 56-O, and 57-O in a decade of hard searching. Just like the C's and D's, in the no motto $5 world, great ones are hard to find and highly undervalued. All gone now, and not a chance to replace them.
Best, SH
I wish I was collecting these when you sold your set. I have the 42-O, 44-O, 46-O, 47-O, 51-O,55-O. Your 56 and 57 would have been perfect. I believe DW added your 51-O to his personal set as it had a hand engraved mintmark.
Latin American Collection
51 - Yes it did, the only other one I have seen besides yours. Did not know he kept it...... Yes the 56 and 57 are verrry tough to find unmessed with - what are we talking about, maybe 10 of each out there in the right condition?
Best, SH