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A case for Philadelphia No Motto $5's [Lots of Pics]
Boosibri
Posts: 11,867 ✭✭✭✭✭
No Motto $5's are my specialty and I continue to be amazed at how unappreciated Philly No Motto $5's are within the current market. While most Philly dates will probably always remain relatively undervalued to their branch mint peers as they lack the romantic back story appeal of the Charlotte and Dahlonega, a case can be made for near term appreciation for these unloved coins.
The Case for Philly No Motto $'s
1) Rarity is becoming more of a collecting principle.
Several of the issues can boast surviving populations under 100 coins as collectors begin to appreciate the absolute rarity of these issue I would expect prices to rise in tandem. While Civil War dates are hardly under-valued, the 1842 Large Letters and Small Letters and 1846 Small Date and several other coins from the 1840's and 1850's compare quite favorably to their branch mint counterparts.
Philly $5's with about 100 total survivors
1842 Large Letters (40) - [1842-C Small Date (Pop:75-100) and +5x the price!]
1842 Small Letters (100)
1846 Small Date (50)
1850 (100) - [1850-C (Pop:700), 1850-D (Pop:175)]
1858 (100) - [1858-C (Pop:750), 1858-D (Pop:165)]
1859 (75) - [1859-C (Pop:225), 1859-D (Pop:165)]
1860 (100) - [1860-C (Pop:450), 1860-D (Pop:165)]
1862-1865 (30-100) Hardly under valued given the Civil War connection.
2) Many of these Philly dates are still with their original skin
Soooo many branch mint coins have been lightened, dipped or puttied. The financial incentive has not been there for these Philly dates as they have languished as defined by "rare but who cares". The ability to buy original skinned 1840's-1850's coins plays well into the trend of CAC price appreciation and the general market trend of appreciating crusty and original coins.
3) In thinly traded markets, it only takes a few new entrants to drive prices upwards
Consider for a moment that about one to two 1842 $5 Large Letters come on to the market per year. I recently purchased the Bently AU50 (now CAC'd) for a very reasonable $3,086 at the low end of my bid range. Two AU CAC 1842 Small Dates have sold in 2013 for between $6k-$7k. A coin like this 42 Large Letters which is about 3 times more rare and just as nice in quality should be at least a $6k if not $10k coin by all comparable accounts. One or two more collectors would be all that it takes to drive the price to those seemingly lofty levels. I would venture to bet that if an AU 42 LL appeared on a dealer site today it would be priced at about $6k regardless of the APR's.
Since this post is worthless without pictures...Here ya go. Post'em if you have them!
The Case for Philly No Motto $'s
1) Rarity is becoming more of a collecting principle.
Several of the issues can boast surviving populations under 100 coins as collectors begin to appreciate the absolute rarity of these issue I would expect prices to rise in tandem. While Civil War dates are hardly under-valued, the 1842 Large Letters and Small Letters and 1846 Small Date and several other coins from the 1840's and 1850's compare quite favorably to their branch mint counterparts.
Philly $5's with about 100 total survivors
1842 Large Letters (40) - [1842-C Small Date (Pop:75-100) and +5x the price!]
1842 Small Letters (100)
1846 Small Date (50)
1850 (100) - [1850-C (Pop:700), 1850-D (Pop:175)]
1858 (100) - [1858-C (Pop:750), 1858-D (Pop:165)]
1859 (75) - [1859-C (Pop:225), 1859-D (Pop:165)]
1860 (100) - [1860-C (Pop:450), 1860-D (Pop:165)]
1862-1865 (30-100) Hardly under valued given the Civil War connection.
2) Many of these Philly dates are still with their original skin
Soooo many branch mint coins have been lightened, dipped or puttied. The financial incentive has not been there for these Philly dates as they have languished as defined by "rare but who cares". The ability to buy original skinned 1840's-1850's coins plays well into the trend of CAC price appreciation and the general market trend of appreciating crusty and original coins.
3) In thinly traded markets, it only takes a few new entrants to drive prices upwards
Consider for a moment that about one to two 1842 $5 Large Letters come on to the market per year. I recently purchased the Bently AU50 (now CAC'd) for a very reasonable $3,086 at the low end of my bid range. Two AU CAC 1842 Small Dates have sold in 2013 for between $6k-$7k. A coin like this 42 Large Letters which is about 3 times more rare and just as nice in quality should be at least a $6k if not $10k coin by all comparable accounts. One or two more collectors would be all that it takes to drive the price to those seemingly lofty levels. I would venture to bet that if an AU 42 LL appeared on a dealer site today it would be priced at about $6k regardless of the APR's.
Since this post is worthless without pictures...Here ya go. Post'em if you have them!
1
Comments
Certain dates such as the 1859 remain unappreciated as you indicated. Not only is the surviving pop fairly low, but look at the mintage figure for the 1859. There just were not that many to begin with. These dates are quite affordable for what a collector gets by purchasing them.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
When collectors think of Philadelphia they think of a large, industrialized city.
<< <i>The Philadelphia issues just don't have the appeal of the branch mint issues. They are unloved and are likely to stay that way.
When collectors think of Philadelphia they think of a large, industrialized city. >>
My argument is not that they will ever eclipse the appeal of the branch mints, just that they will increase in price and in demand relative to their current depressed state. In fact this is clearly occurring already if you watch the APR's of certain issues...the 42 SD, the 59 and 60 both have logged APR's this year +100% of past records.
The same negative view could have been made for SF coins like the 58-S, 59-S, 60-S, 76-S $5. APR's reflect massive appreciation in these formerly unloved dates.
I'm talking my book for sure but at least its an interesting topic.
Latin American Collection
I'm not into the gold coin market so I can't say. Personally, the Philadelphia dates just don't get me excited even though I know some of them are rare. The appeal just isn't there.
The real question is whether the Philadelphia dates can maintain a price appreciation over time. When viewing short term price increases in the coin market you always have to wonder if you are seeing a genuine increase in demand that is going to "have legs" or just a "well managed promotion".
No one is promoting Philly gold, other than perhaps the 61-65 Civil War issues. It is an obvious pocket of relative undervaluedness (is that not a word?
The trouble with this series is that the obverse is just not that attractive, at not least to me. The odd Ms. Liberty with no cheekbones looks gaunt and unappealing. I agree with Teddy Roosevelt who viewed the design of these coins as unattractive. His words were "atrociously hideous." I know if I ever started a year set, let alone date and mint set, of these coins I'd get bored with it.
The branch mint coins have certain romance to them, especially the Charlotte and Dahlonega pieces. The New Orleans coins range from scarce to rare while the San Francisco pieces have the California gold rush going for them. The Philly coins are just kind of "there."
Having said that I have three of them in my collection. I have an 1852 I bought raw as my first type coin, an 1857, which was an upgrade, and an 1861 which part of my "1861 gold set" that I'd like to finish one day.
I have kept the 1852 as an "investment" in gold. I bought it off a bid wall at a small dealer's shop many years ago for a price that was cheap even then (well under $300). It was an AU at that time. Now it's an NGC MS-61. Some things get better with age.
you have some perfect examples of how old circulated gold coins should look. the 46 is amazing!
jom
<< <i>These coins are scarce in strict Mint State condition, and they are expensive in that grade too. AUs and lower grades are a lot cheaper. >>
Here are the PCGS Mint State pops and the last APR's (#/Highest Grade/$ APR for last top grade/Date) per Coinfacts:
1842 SL: 1/66/none/none
1842 LL: 3/64/none/none
1850: 7/62/$4,600/2007
1858: 9/64/$11,000/2012
1859: 2/62/$7,000/2012
1860: 2/63/none/none
In defense I would call these coins rare not scarce in mint state and I would argue that they are not expensive relative to other similarly rare issues. I'm not arguing for building a MS collection, rather im posing that a general price appreciation for beautifully original and genuinely scarce coins is in fact not out of the question and in fact I think more probable than most think.
Another key factor to consider is the flow of appreciation in the rare gold market by size of denomination from Double Eagles on down. Not surprisingly, certain Double Eagles are now selling for multiples of past levels, example an 1850 AU for $5-$10k when there are what 3000 available in all grades. OK, its a first year issue but to me there is nothing to get very excited about there. Take the New Orleans $20's as another example, most aren't that rare, many collectors are now priced out of that market and if you want to collect gold the logical place is to go down one denomination looking for value.
Starting with David Hall's collection, the rarity of Eagles became more well known and issues across all mints rapidly appreciated. As expected the New Orleans key and semi-key dates, the Civil War dates and first year types all outperformed. Philly dates however did see a very marked increase in popularity for dates such as the 1844-1846, 1858 though the 1840's remain well undervalued.
With the appreciation in Eagles I think it only natural that Half Eagles become the next wave of growth in the rare date gold market as collectors move down the chain.
Note, I believe that Roosevelt made the same comment about the attractiveness of all current designs, including the Double Eagle. Only difference is the size (which is a big factor in their popularity obviously). Again, just food for thought.
Latin American Collection
<< <i>Rarity is becoming more of a collecting principle >>
I would add that Rarity has always been a "collecting principle", just with the dawn of the information age statistical analysis is now the deciding factor in perception instead of the old marketing and anecdotal measures of the key date phenomenon of the collector boards era where many simply correlated mintage to rarity.
Demand is still the only real driver of prices and while a couple of new bloods can influence thin markets, that demand can just as easily disappear just as quickly. The problem with date/mm collectors/specialists of the half eagles is the series is too long and expensive (and all but completable) to truly develop a serious series collector base. Even the 1% who collect groups of the issue accept when a piece is noncollectable and move on making true specific date demand sparse which will always suppress general prices unless they develop the "multiple levels of demand" to quote DW. If you were to ask me the Philly Mint half eagles are some of the least likely to possess or develop the "multiple levels of demand" and are simply appreciating inline with the overall series and coin market.
An opportunity for people who love true rarity and unmolested surfaces, sure. Likely to every make mainstream want lists, magic 8ball says (ask again later)
PS
I love the 57
<< <i>If you were to ask me the Philly Mint half eagles are some of the least likely to possess or develop the "multiple levels of demand" and are simply appreciating inline with the overall series and coin market. >>
Completely agree on the MLD, no chance, no way no how do these coins have MLD. As I have argued I think they will outperform but that arguement has been made.
PS
I love the 57 >>
Thanks... that's also a compliment to RYK
Latin American Collection
<< <i>... I agree with Teddy Roosevelt who viewed the design of these coins as unattractive. His words were "atrociously hideous." ... >>
I wonder how he would describe today's coins....
In my opinion the obverse is kinda meh, but I do like the reverse.
Latin American Collection
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
an 1857
an 1861