SHOULD we worry that U.S. Mint customers have dropped by over 80% in 20 years!
jmlanzaf
Posts: 35,482 ✭✭✭✭✭
Yes, yes, I know it's U.S. Mint products and they are widgets or (worse!) dreck!
BUT that could suggest a huge decrease in overall interest in coins. Consider that in 1995, a LOT of Mint products were distributed by coin dealers as the Mint was not yet doing internet sales directly. Today, coin dealers do very little with most proof and mint sets because they don't get enough of a discount from the Mint to be able to compete with the MInt's direct marketing.
This is what happened to stamps: giant decrease in philatelic sales at USPS, huge decrease in number of subscribers to FDC services etc., huge decrease in APS membership.
3
Comments
No
The mint has to "forget" the mintmark once in a while.
It has worked before.
No. Who can keep up with the avalanche of crap?
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Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
no, doesn't seem to have slowed them down.
Capital investment depends on confidence. - Martin Armstrong
The 80% comes from 2.7 million active customers in mid 90's to Under 500,000 active customers now. The question is how far Under 500,000 and how does the Mint count "active customers". I have several Friends and Family accounts that I use that only I have the password and login credentials. My Guess is that Under 500,000 (number last reported by the mint in October 2016) is now down to somewhere between 250,000 and 350,000...
most offerings have mintages way too high, if they reduce the max mintage, it may draw more customers
What about total revenue from sales? Has it dropped 80%? What do they do with any unsold items?
The fractional gold buffalos were cool.
I wonder how many forum collectors have bought direct from the Mint in the last year?
Would have been more attention getting if the whole title line were in caps.
You took the words right outta my mouth😂😂
Yes, I used to keep up with all of the modern commemoratives, I have given up. It's just too expensive to keep buying coins themes like "to commemorate the death of the last dodo bird" at those pieces. Commorative coins should be issued for something special, and collectors should not be made into cash cows for groups that can get a bill through Congress.
I disagree with this. In the year that a coin is issued, the collectors who want them should have a shot and not have to pay big premiums to dealers who find ways to hog the market by buying up the "limited issue."
One of the "natural rarities" was the Jackie Robinson $5 gold. Collectors were not interested so the mint did not sell that many pieces. That is the way the better date stuff should be. It should not be a "contrived rarity."
I am sorry that I did not buy a set when they were offered and NOT because they turned out to be a big money maker AFTER they were issued. I like the set in the original mint box, not certified, but buying that is almost impossible these days.
I did not buy at set from the mint because I thought the premium over the bullion value was way too high at the time.
Back then there were lots of fake “Mint customer” accounts to get around ordering limits. My cat had one. They may have rightfully purged a lot of duplicates and inactive accounts.
I started collecting in 1971 at the age of nine. By 1975 I had come to the conclusion that the mint's entire 'Collector coin' production was worthless garbage. on the whole, I was mostly correct.
As to comparing the mint products and program to the post office stamp programs...
There are similarities, however, blaming the the PO on destroying stamp collecting is a bit short sighted, in my thinking.
As this thread is not about my theories but asking should we be worried I will say no, we should be worried about the number of mint customers.
It could be great to have some coins pedigreed to your cat
Could be a new use of the word pedigree!
Yeah, but your cat was a bi***h to deal with.
Yes, I have 3 accounts myself.
There still are. I have 3 accounts and numerous people on this vary board actually have more than 3.
I didn't say it was ONLY the PO's fault, but it was one of the canaries in the coal mine.
I generally try to leave the caps and bold to insider
Just too many items to try and keep up with.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
I suppose my only "worry" is that these collectors have had something of an epiphany and are now collecting US Type coins.
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Who would want to!
Numismatic coin revenue over the last 10 years has dropped considerably. If you want to read the reports:
https://usmint.gov/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2018-Annual-Report-ADA.pdf
Numismatic Products have decreased steadily from $505 million in 2014 to $293 million in 2018.
The last item I bought directly from the Mint was the FDR Coin & Chronicles Set ...due to the low(er) mintage...and flip-ability.
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No
No...from their annual report it doesn't sound like the Mint is doing a whole hearted job in selling their numismatic products but only making them because they have to...so I wouldn't read too much into that big decline....
"Most of the Mint’s recurring products—such as United States Mint Uncirculated Coin Sets®, United States Mint Proof Sets®, and United States Mint Silver Proof Sets®—are required by Federal statute. Others, such as commemorative coins and Congressional Gold Medals, are required by individual public laws. A main objective of the numismatic program is to increase the Mint’s customer base and foster sales while controlling costs and keeping prices as low as practicable."
@jonruns Please note: "A main objective of the numismatic program is to increase the Mint’s customer base and foster sales while controlling costs and keeping prices as low as practicable."
My point is not that I care if the Mint sells anything. I've often said that, as a taxpayer, I wish they'd stop making proof and mint sets because they lose money on them every year. My question is whether this, coupled with a couple other thing I mentioned, are indicative of a hobby with a shrinking collector base. ANA membership is down significantly, for example. Coin show attendance?
There was a time when slabbed 64 Morgan $s for $50 would easily be absorbed by the market. Now...???
People like to talk about pops increasing, which is true. But pops increasing is a meaningless number unless measured against collector populations.
Worry, of course.
Worrying always helps.
it makes me wonder just how much carp there is just sitting in warehouses. just curious is all
We shouldn't. The Mint probably should though.
Collector, occasional seller
The thing that worries me is Bitcoin. How can a number on a Computer Memory have " Investment" value?
Also, I read that Germany sold a bunch of Bonds at a negative return rate. Today you pay X units of Paper for future paper thats worth .97X. How is that an Investment?
@jmlanzaf
"My point is not that I care if the Mint sells anything. I've often said that, as a taxpayer, I wish they'd stop making proof and mint sets because they lose money on them every year. My question is whether this, coupled with a couple other thing I mentioned, are indicative of a hobby with a shrinking collector base. ANA membership is down significantly, for example. Coin show attendance?"
My point is that the Mint is legally required to sell these products. They do not have the option to stop making proof and mint sets. And while they may have a noble OBJECTIVE of increasing the customer base, if they aren't willing to spend any marketing resources against this effort because they are so busy controlling costs the current result is fairly predictable.
If worrying makes you feel better then yes I think you should worry.
I used to like buying a few mint and proof sets until the State Quarters came out and added more coins and upped the prices.
Also liked to buy some Proof Silver Eagles too until the prices (premium) over actual silver prices got too big.
It was fun while it lasted
LOL. The Mint doesn't care, they are a non-profit of sorts.
It's really a question of whether the trend is a canary in the coal mine.
Germany isn't the only one. There is estimated to be $15 TRILLION in government debt that has negative yields currently, Japan being the biggest issuer.
There was an article in the financial press I read about a year ago that explained why people (institutions) buy those bonds. The main reason was exchange rates. It's more of a gamble on getting a positive real rate of return when adjusted for inflation (deflation) and currency exchange changes.
People are such literalists. LOL. "worry" was more shorthand for "consider the possible ramifications to the coin market"
The problem seems to be that the majority of what the Mint is producing is stuff that people don't really want. I think the fact that collectors on this board say that it's junk says a lot about what the mint thinks their target audience wants.
Look at all the stuff that's been "designed by committee", no one wants it. But when they re-release a classic design like the 2009 UHR Saint, the 2016 Gold Merc/SLQ/WLH, collectors can't get enough. I expect the 2021 $1 commems(if they make them) will sell very well. If they started putting form ahead of whatever politically correct message they are trying to send at the time, they might sell more wares.
Collector, occasional seller
a) They make too many things few people want.
b) I think all products should be minted to order, no HH limits, no nothing and the final mintages not released for 2 years. You pays your money and you takes your chances.
I am not worried.... The Mint will endure - and the new guy has some good ideas too - There are far more important things to worry about... Like what is for dinner, and do I have a bottle of Cabernet Sauvignon? Cheers, RickO
I think that in the public interest they should have a buy back of clad proof sets.
Collectors will buy what interests them, this is not something I worry about.
Beautiful shiny coins with myriad designs and metals. It isn't the "want" but the price. If you could buy a mint product for X and then sell it for X, what is the problem?
as it is now, you buy a mint product for X you sell it for X-minus a lot.
Very interesting analogy.
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
I find it hard to believe there's still that many actual customers still buying direct from the mint. The wise buyers I known wait a while and buy for a fraction of the issue price.Yes a few issues have gone up but they just buy those from the original purchasers' heirs.
I would have thought the 2.7m accounts would have peaked around the start of the state quarter program
I’m sure accounts took a steep decline midway thru that program
I have not bought anything from the Mint in decades.
Are you an alt for 291fifth?
My 1866 Philly Mint Set