Why is a 1909-S VDB so much more expensive than a 1931-S Lincoln Cent??
keets
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This has always puzzled me, so let's look at the numbers:
Struck.
1909-S VDB --- 484,000.
1931-S --- 866,000.
All Grades at PCGS.
1909-S VDB --- 19,055.
1931-S --- 9,055.
Neither coin is rare. Although there were approximately twice as many 1931-S's struck there were most probably more 1909-S VDB's saved because it was the first year of issue. As a result, there appears to be approximately twice as many 1909-S VDB's encapsulated by PCGS.
The question than becomes a simple one: Why is a 1909-S VDB approximately 10X higher priced than a 1931-S across all grades?? Is the quick answer Marketing?? Please explain this to me.
Al H.
2
Comments
Marketing
Perception
Also, the 31-S was released deep into the depression. Maybe the survival rate is not great, as it was not a priority at that time.
would that not mean it should be more expensive than it is??
Good point Al... I believe it is the hype of marketing and the lack of knowledge of newer collectors...Cheers, RickO
We may have to go back to 1909 to answer this one. The 09SVDB has had a certain cachet, lore, call-it-what-you-will since I was a kid, which is a long time. Clearly the 09SVDB has a cost/demand way out of proportion to its relative rarity. Pick up an auction catalog or check out eBay and buy a nice or super-nice SVDB, just write a check. Nice MS quality seems to be the norm. Many other issues are much tougher in really nice condition. Even the 31S, which was also saved in quantity is much tougher if you want a really nice one, due to production and (my guess) storage issues.
First year helps.
.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
Bags of 1931-S cents were still available after the end of the year, and some dealer(s) decided that with the low mintage (which was known after the end of the year) they were worth putting away in bag quantities.
I don't believe the 1931-S is scarcer, either "in grade" or absolutely. My perception is that the typical grade for a 31-S is AU or better. There were certainly far fewer collectors in 1909 several decades prior to widespread album collecting than in the late 1930's when I recall it was introduced. Also, I have heard (but don't actually know) that most of the 31-S mintage was acquired in bulk by one or a few dealers.
Second, the difference in TPG population data almost certainly primarily reflects the price difference, not the relative scarcity. Any 09-S VDB is worth grading while much less so for the 31-S.
Third, the 09-S VDB is a far more prominent coin. Even many non-collectors (at least from my generation and prior) have heard of it. The 31-S might (?) still retain its perception as a key date but is rated below many others in the series.
A case can be made that the price gap should be closer between the two but it's unlikely to be significant (absent a price crash in both) because neither is priced for its scarcity. On one prior occasion, I attempted to quantify price changes back to 1963 or 1965 (per my Red Books), Both lost value, adjusted for price changes, but the 09-S VDB did better than the 31-S. Hard to compare though due to changes in collecting over time but that's wat the data showed.
For many coins the mintages are not relevant. Rather, you need to look at the number of surviving specimens. The experts at PCGS Coin Facts states there are 50,000 09SVDB cents surviving and there are 80,000 31-S cents surviving. Also, unlike the 31-S, the 09-SVDB has been very heavily counterfeited which explains the large disparity in the number of slabbed specimens. Most 09-SVDB cents in the circulated grades are primarily slabbed to verify the authenticity of the coin before it's put in the coin album to complete the set..
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Blame the collectors - we put up with this stuff. If we stopped paying the prices for these two coins obviously there would be a price change. The one reason I do not own MS 65 examples of either coin - its simply they are not worth it.
WS
Here is a link to a prior Coin Week article. No confirmed large hoards according to the article at least.
https://coinweek.com/us-coins/united-states-1931-s-lincoln-cent/
PCGS has graded 241 SVDB's in 66D, 15 in 67RD. About half as many 31S's in 66RD and zero 67RD. List for SVDB in 66RD is $9,000, the 31S lists at $1,500 in 66RD. Plus, if you examine the two dates in high grade, you will see many more really nice spot-free and well-struck SVDB's relative to 31S's. The SVDB is simply a more popular coin, probably a holdover from the early collecting days when we looked for circulated examples - we didn't have pop reports.
Outside of Lincoln cent collectors, who is in the market for a 31-s cent?
Probably very few.
Same question, rephrased:
Who in the general coin collecting community is in the market for a 1909-SVDB?
Lots, and lots.
It is a storied coin that people have historically searched for and put on a pedestal for 110 years. That is not likely to change overnight, and its value is certainly not quantifiable in the pop reports.
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Because one is more famous than then other and neither is rare. They are both just remnants of big dealer promotions coupled to redbook-fever w/eye catching low mint figures
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
The 31-S is easy to find in ok condition up to MS64 as the low mintage was well known and the issue was heavily horded. Unfortunately the poor quality blanks and strikes make finding fully struck, lustrous, spot free MS examples tough and very difficult in the MS65 & MS66 grades with no MS67's at either NGC or PCGS. Compared to the 09 SVDB (or even the 31-D if you like) which was also horded but the 09 SVDB was better coined and as a result there are many high grade examples available. As to the reason for the price, the 09 SVDB was considered a key date right out of the gate and prices were always high, once a price has been pushed up its more difficult to bring that price down. As we know today neither of these two dates are rare, however finding a well struck clean high grade 31-S is a condition rarity and should be worth more than a similar condition 09 SVDB.
My Collection of Old Holders
Never a slave to one plastic brand will I ever be.
An interesting comment appears on PCGS CoinFacts:
Ron Guth:
According to a notice in the June 1934 issue of The Numismatist (p. 416), collectors could still purchase Uncirculated 1931-S Cents for "the face value of the coins and an amount sufficient to cover the mail charges by first-class mail."
.
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Sounds like they were still available to order from the government. Always seems like a lot of Uncs available. Though I have always thought the S-VDB to be priced higher than I value it. But that is where supply meets demand.
"To Be Esteemed Be Useful" - 1792 Birch Cent --- "I personally think we developed language because of our deep need to complain." - Lily Tomlin
Rarity does not equal price.
Not to hijack the thread, but why is the 1932-S quarter worth less than its cousin 1932-D quarter, even though the 1932-D has a higher mintage?
Both are new first year issues, and I expect both were saved as a result. I’m lost.
Dave
alot of people want a 1909-s vdb. it is a top 100 coin (#23 in Garrett's book). The far larger demand explains the price difference.
I will this much, most of the 1909-S VDB's we see tend to be VG-F, most of the 1931-S's we see are XF. The 1909-S VDB's tend to be raw in a flip or encapsulated, the 1931-S's are either in a flip or in a folder/album.
My contribution....I’m guessing if I own a nice raw example, so do many other folks:
Simple: S+VDB = coin with multiple of levels demand from collectors.
In 1909 a Lincoln cent was a great novelty which attracted much public attention. Further, the S-mint coin were distributed only along the west coast, and the silly stories about recalling VDB cents further enhanced both the desirability and hoarding.
1931 cents were just commercial items. Mary O'Reilly, who really ran the Mint Bureau at the time, understood collector interest and hoarding. She made sure that did not happen with Buffalo nickels.
Market perception.
I'd like to further expand on the comment by oldabeintx going back in time. I came across an article by Dr. Sol Taylor (deceased) a collector/dealer from Brooklyn, New York. In 1909, the One Cent received a complete redesign in conjunction with the ending year of the Indian Head. Just as the frenzy today with West Point minted Lincolns, although not meant for circulation- were talking prices realized. For circulation we'll use the W quarters. Collectors and non-collectors hoarded them as fast as they reached the banks. As is today, mintages from each branch are done on supply and demand for commerce based on population. Higher on the east coast at the time. With that, travel was far different than today- people rarely, if ever, travelled from coast to coast save the wealthy. In his article he talks of finding three between the early twenties and 1930 in circulation. Dealers who managed to have them were selling them for around .25 cents while the S mint Indians sold for around $1.00. The true price explosion, and shift in value from the Indian to the Lincoln occurred in the 1930's as coin boards hit the market. With many holes empty collectors scrambled to find them, willing to pay astronomical prices back then. As for the Indians, despite the mintage gap, dealers in 1910 were buying those by the bag. Which explains why many more are available in the higher grades comparatively.
Now for the 1931s. The Great Depression Looking at the total 1909 mintage of San Francisco (Indian S, Lincoln S and SVDB) of 2,618,000 and a pultry 866,000 in 1931, you'll see how supply and demand factors in. Knowing this, by all accounts the 1931s should in fact bring far, far greater than the 1909s VDB. Especially in higher grades. To that, it blows ones mind as to the reversal of logic when discussing coinage value versus mintage figures. This same conundrum weighs on my own as I work on the Seated Liberty dime series as I compare the numbers with other series. The only answer I have is desirability. Either people collect or they do not. As for the cent, it is the number one collected denomination. The Lincoln series being number one within. So there in lies the answer to your question. Desirability over quantity produced.
On a side note, look at the find in circulation. Just as in post 1909.
**1909-S-VDB
**
Fame
Good story about why the "VDB" was dropped
First year of issue
1931-S
Coin in the middle of the series
No great stories surrouding it
Fairly easy to find, I bought one for less than $30 many years ago for my boyhood circ. set. The 1909-S-VDB has cost hundreds of dollars for years, which makes harder for the average collector to get one.
The liberty seated series are comparable to one design I collect (not US) in one aspect. The coins don't exist in sufficient quantity for a much larger number to collect, even if they wanted to do so. This especially applies in the quality many if not most collectors want to buy today. The series is also very expensive; above the budgets or even financial capacity outside of a relatively low percentage of the collector base.
Slabbing. There are far more 31-S coins, they just haven't been holdered. It doesn't really matter how popular a coin is, ultimately collectors discover which is the scarcest and those prices rise to the top within a series.
I’m sure it’s possible an Mint State 31-S with attractive color could bring a higher price than a run of the mill 09 SVDB.
On the contrary - it does really matter how popular a coin is. The ones that are highly popular sell for relatively high prices, even if they’re not rare. And the ones that aren’t in demand sell for relatively low prices, even if they’re scarce.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I am not sure about that. "In the good old days," you could go to the Philadelphia Mint and trade for 1931-S cents at face value. Years ago I read that you could still make the exchange for a 1931-S well into the 1940s. Since collectors would have doing this, one must assume that the coins were properly preserved. Today there is nothing rare about the 1931-S Cent in Red Unc. PCGS has graded well over 2,000 of them.
Of course that is always the chance that there is a 1931-S "wonder coin" out there that gets into an MS-68 Red and makes the top POP for the registry people. If two of them chase after in an auction, the sky could be the limit.
If a "mere" 67RD 31S ever turns up, it will do very well, none graded by PCGS or NGC,
Demand. The 1909-S VDB is regarded as a must have coin by a lot of collectors. Heck, I’ve debated buying one even though Lincolns aren’t a major interest of mine (all but two in my collection are proofs),
Demand.
It's all about demand and surviving population. The 1931-D is much tougher than the 1931-s in 65 red
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If there was a record single for the 31-S like the 09-S VDB does...we may have a different story.
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31-s doesn't have the mystique that the 09 svdb has.
High mystique=high dollars.
Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with important matters.
Similar questions always make me wonder about 1877 IHC vs 1909-s IHC and 1885 Lib head nickel vs 1912-s Lib head nickel.
Oh well
QDB bought a cigar box full of Unc. rolls of 1931-S Cents in 1955. There must have been thousands of rolls saved.
why wouldn't there have been thousands of rolls of 1909-S VDB's saved since it was the first year of issue?? the CW link earlier in the thread seems to have relegated the "1931-S bag hoard" stories as Numismatic myths, so also for your supposition about the rolls. no doubt such things were done but I would assume most have been disbursed. I would assume that for both dates there aren't any large numbers of Gem Red Unc.'s out there anywhere.
the simple answer for the price disparity seems to be the "mystique" associated with the 1909-S VDB which attaches itself to us as children and never leaves.
Fame. First year. I don't know how many times I've had a discussion with people that don't collect coins and I've mentioned what I do and the next sentence is "Have you ever had a 1909-S VDB?"
That's not going to happen with a 31-S.
Brian Hodge
Partner, President of Numismatics
Minshull Trading
The first thing I did when I got back into coins as an adult (1991) was to go to a local coin shop and buy the longed-for coin from childhood: a 1909-S VDB, VF.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
I think the 1909 s was introduced to circulation in typical fashion with collectors being the only ones interested in keeping a few uncirculated examples because of first year of issue considerations.
Capt Henway (above) gave you the facts on the 1931 S. They were not introduced into circulation in massive quantities immediately. After the run was published savvy collectors and Dealers stored them away in mass quantities believing that one day they would carry a premium. The wives tale I heard was that one speculator saved them by the thousands believing they would "pop" in value.
Try finding a 1931 S Lincoln in G/VG. Much harder than it should be.
We don't know the real population of the 31-S because the population reports do not show enough data of the extant population. Keets is not musing about MS pieces, which would be a conundrum, but ALL grades, which is very reasonably understood. Why would a person send a G, VG, F, VF, XF or AU (maybe AU) 1931-S to be holdered? We know why the 1909-S VDB is holdered in every grade: counterfeiting and value. These dynamics are why there are many fewer 31-S coins in holders.
Take a gander at the pop reports for the 96-S. 01-S and 13-S Barber quarters. They have some of the highest pop reports in the series and all three have the lowest mintages of the series.
1901-S Barber Quarter - very scarce in all grades = 921 Mintage 72,664
1901 Barber Quarter - very common in all grades = 503 Mintage 8,892,000
The high price of the 09-S VDB is due to its popularity, but it is popular because it is the scarcest coin in the series (except perhaps for the no D, weak D Double die etc.. varieties) - relatively speaking...and it is every kids dream to own one.
It's the same with the 1916-D Mercury Dime and the 1914-S Barber Quarter. Both had the exact same mintage 264,000.
Yet look at the price difference in those two coins!
An easy answer to this question:
If you could only have 1 coin, which would it be?
Many collectors can appreciate the 1909-S VDB - multiple levels of demand.
A Lincoln specialist is needed to appreciate the 1931-S - fewer levels of demand.
1950-D
My Saint Set
Extreme hype for the S-VDB.
Demand. There are many collectors for the series (it is one of the most popular) and fewer examples than all of the other dates to go around. Also as the reputed "key" to the series, the 1909-S VDB is even more prone to resubmissions so I wouldn't use population report data at all. I agree with you that neither is rare and as the number of collectors continues to dwindle the prices will fall.
I had never noticed this before. That is a huge and interesting disparity. I guess it shows how relatively unpopular the Barber series is.
Interestingly the 1913 Barber Quarter and the 1909-S VDB cent also have the same mintage.
It feels like piling on, but
Price is just where supply and demand hang out.