The Death of Set Collecting?
cameonut2011
Posts: 10,181 ✭✭✭✭✭
Some recent comments in threads and personal observations have made me reflect on the future of this hobby and set collecting more generally. It appears that because of, among other things, grade inflation many collectors have abandoned the goal of completing a specific date/mint mark set and instead are moving to a type set or box of 20 like concept (i.e. collecting only special or coins that appeal to him or her with no specific focus). It would seem that this will affect the long term demand for specific issues and increase supply for better grade coins as the date no longer matters and there are more exemplars to satisfy the "hole" in a collection. What do you think? Are my observations misguided? Will keys or better dates be affected?
Comments
I think that plenty of folks (myself included) still collect date and mintmark sets. I don't believe it is in decline just because a few people mention that they think it is. I'm not worried about it and I think that keys will still hold their value and likely increase. JMHO.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Not sure how "gradeflation" would affect set collecting. Increased price for the keys, might....
That being said, I've got several sets going, including a type set, and think it fits my "style" better than the box of 20 concept.
Set collecting on the low end is still popular. Ironically as prices decline due to the shift to type collecting and other hobbies, I could see set collecting again rise in popularity as the price per set becomes approachable again for nice coins. PCGS currently has a Lincoln Wheat Cent complete set in MS64 BN priced at 20 grand. That's just not an approachable price point for most people for what are essentially all common coins (a couple dates at that grade are actually pretty rare.)
I find it hard to stay focus for A type or two to a complete set ... seems a bit more like work to me for time being
There are so many beautiful coins out there.... I collect what pleases me
I will consider type set seriously someday into my retirement
Most collectors I know are series collectors, not type collectors. I think series collecting remains very strong...there’s just something very interesting about dates/mint marks. You also don’t need to collect high-end mint state examples to keep things interesting.
Should series collecting wane, for whatever reason, it would impact pricing on the keys/semi-keys. That said, some of my type set friends prefer key dates in their sets, which makes their sets ultra cool.
Dave
I prefer collecting sets, even though I have not come close to completing one yet....
I gave up on completing a set of Liberty Nickels in PCGS MS 66 holders two years ago. It was due to a combination of gradeflation at this level, and 1/2 or a full roll of Unc. 1912 S and either 1885s or 1886s coming onto the market.
As a result, prices cratered for most dates, and the continuum of MS 66 for the 12 S and prices all over the map for the coin in the grade told me it was time to leave.
Will never try to complete a series or set again.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
One coin or several dozen of a type could easily decline by the same percentage if demand for a series drops. So I don't see a differential in favor of type collecting here.
People with registry sets who feel the point values for grades are important are affected by overgrading. It would not affect people who don't care about the points and choose what they feel the highest quality coins are, independent of the slab label. However, it affects registry type sets and series sets in the same way. So I don't see a differential effect on series collecting.
This is related to (2.) - it would affect a set registry person who cares about point values. But it affects registry type sets and series sets in the same way.
It is a daunting task except for the wealthy.
Most of my customers are type collectors. They may be concentrated in one area like USGTC, Seated, or various USA and World Mod Bullion coins or BD / anniversary dates. One fellow collects coins and currency from Columbia because of his interest in the Netflix series Narcos. Another guy a strip clubber (Lifetime VIP) who likes travel to sample that city sc collects $20, $50, and $100 bills mainly certified by PMG or PCGS. He also interest in large size NAtIonal Banknotes. For example he went to Florida to attend FUN seeking 1882 $10 Brownbacks and then a SC vacation to enjoy various clubs.
Frankly I find series accumulation / collecting very boring plus this can be disastrous from an investment point of view.
It seems to me that there has been a movement among some collectors that the only coins that are worth having are the key dates. Everything else is just so much “stuff.” Since my interests run more toward a study of history and what happened during a certain year or period of time, I don’t understand this point of view from the collecting perspective.
I can see where some people might think that key dates are a “better investment.” The trouble with that strategy is that demand for those coins becomes distorted and drives up the prices higher than true collector demand. If collectors really need a date and mint mark combination to complete their sets, that’s one thing. If they are just buying something because it’s “rare” and they think that prices are going up in the future, that’s another. Higher prices built on speculation are built in sand in my opinion. They stand a good chance of taking a tumble when something happens, like the discovery of a hoard, and grade-flation which erodes collector confidence.
I think that there is still a “silent majority” of collectors who are still working on their sets. The trouble is they don’t get a lot of press because they are buying common coins, which some of the market makers think are of little general interest.
Frankly I find series accumulation / collecting very boring plus this can be disastrous from an investment point of view.
This is why I no longer do sets. If you move on to another series and want to sell, you will most likely take a beating, less the keys.
I did some series years ago... then stopped... Now I just get coins that appeal to me. I might go back and finish my Lincoln folder though...as far as what appears to be changing tastes in collecting... this will always cycle... plus, what we see here on the forum is such a small window into the collecting public. Cheers, RickO
Have anyone heard of or seen a simi-key / key set? I am not sure how many coins would be to have the simis and keys from each series. I think it would be cool to have a registry set. I am not sure if anyone thought of doing one of these.
My 20th Century Gold Major Design Type Set ---started : 11/17/1997 ---- completed : 1/21/2004
I get your point. When I was high school I put together a set of Flying Eagle and Indian Cents, minus the 1856 flyer, of course. The set was not “junk.” All of the keys and semi-keys graded from Fine to EF. I had about $1,300 in it at the end.
When I went to sell it, I got $400. It was combination of a bear market for Indian Cents, in the early 1970s, and the fact that no one really cares about the common dates in the 1880s, ‘90s and early 1900s. I had also paid retail prices for the coins. Of course today in dollars, without adjusting for inflation, I would get almost $1,300 for the 1877 Indian Cent alone, which was yesterday’s Fine and today’s VF since it had a full LIBERTY.
The much bigger story is not that fewer people are collecting sets, but that set collectors now tend to collect fewer sets. Partly because slabs lead us to collect higher quality coins, which are more expensive. Also because slabs are so much bulkier.
As a result, there’s less demand for many coins that are not good enough for the trophy hunters, but too good to collect raw.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I struggle with my type sets deciding do I go for the "rare" coin or do I add a nice eye appealing coin that has a good strike. Lately the rare dates have seen huge premiums that I agree are risky to purchase.
I don’t know about others, but for me, finishing my Lincoln cent date and mint set from 1909-1933 left me exhausted. 6 years, could have taken longer, could maybe make it better still. At first it was fun, was able to add to my collection often enough, but as I got down to the last 10 or so I had to really look hard and focus and not buy coins that didn’t match just to achieve the goal. Then by the last one and two of them, I just wasn’t very involved with buying and I had to keep money tied up just in case they came up for sale.
It was a good exercise in numismatic self control, and I learned a lot about myself, but enough with that! Now, if I want to grab a sick 8 real, it’s not like I’m gonna build an entire run of those, or a killer Saint, Fugio, token, or you name it. Set collecting had me passing on some real neat pieces and now I’m free to buy them if I want. The closest I came to embarking on a new set was the small run of proof Buffalo nickles, but decided the one I had was enough.
Now, I put what it would cost to do an entire run of coins in a grade I could afford and commit that kind of dough to one single monster example and call that my set. I’m looking for the “one” large cent right now instead of a bunch of slicked out pieces with different dates.
I understand how folks could run into a coin they like and decide they will get it because it’s a date or mintmark they don’t have, that’s only natural. There is a trap though set collecting where you can have capitol tied up in mediocre coins just because you need the date or mintmark.
I like the earlier 20th century sets that were popular (and still in circulation) at the time I began collecting, but I doubt that future generations will share that enthusiasm. Many collectors already see these coins as relics of a bygone era, and there are constant new offerings from the Mint to compete for collectors' attention and money. Not to mention that there are numerous other hobbyist activities (such as video games, social media) that were not around to distract collectors 60 years ago.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
No more complete set collecting for me. It ends with my circulated sets of Walkers and Mercs (keeping both sets).
What's next? Type collecting is tempting. But I'll probably go for a Box of 20 strategy.
Successful BST transactions with forum members thebigeng, SPalladino, Zoidmeister, coin22lover, coinsarefun, jwitten, CommemKing.
High grade, attractive type coins are not "widgets" even when they are common dates within a series, unless you are talking about the types after say the mid 1930s. This is especially true of 18th and 19th century type coins.
So, you think it isn't in decline because you do it. [Sample of 1] And you don't think it is decline just because multiple people stopped doing it. [Sample of more than 1]
Due to economic concerns I collect date sets in MS grades. They still make for an attractive set. I've done this for Buff 5c, Merc 10c, SL 25c (except for the 1916), Wash 25c, Frankilin 50c, and Peace $1. I also have the complete set of 3 and 3 1/2 leg Buffs and a set of Buff 5c proofs. Much of these last two were cherrypicked.
I think Bill is right. High quality type coins will always be in demand, especially those from the 18th and early 19th Century. When I picked up collecting again a couple of years ago after a 5 year hiatus, it was to finish a small Type set. I had completed a couple of series in the past (Lincoln Cents, and Buffalo Nickels), but the excitement waned quickly. As far as investment... timing is everything. I bought the 09-S VDB raw and had it slabbed/authenticated. When I sold the set... and the keys separately. .. I took a $250 lesson on that particular coin. Part of my learning curve that it's not all that rare of a coin.
That said, I might do a short set of middle date LC's in VF to XF after I finish my Type Set. Heck I might even do a date set of Morgan Dollars if silver keeps trending down... ;-) Regardless, I'll still pick up the odd type coin...
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Bill, for this reason, I could never allow myself to buy an 09 S VDB Lincoln. The coin is not scarce; the 09 S IHC is more rare. But everyone seemed to want the 09 S VDB, and for the last 50 years plus, I think a fair amount of its price component is "because they think it's rare and that prices are going up in the future."
Same with the 1916 SLQ. The mintage is low, but they're readily available. You'll have an easier time finding an Unc. 16 SLQ than an unmolested Bust Dollar in any grade of AU.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I go back and forth a lot on this. I'm sure you're all getting tired of my discussions asking questions because I've changed my mind again! For me it's financial, I'm a completest and want to have full sets of things, but I don't have the resources to built slabbed set registry sets. Click on a bunch of the set registries and go to the last set on the first page. For a lot of them, to even have a chance to get your set onto the first page, which could be in the 30's 40's rank, you need to have $20,000+ sets. That's way out of my price range and honestly, that's throwing money away. Why would I want to spend minimum $10 and mostly much higher on a ton of random common lincoln cent's that no one cares about and are worth a penny raw simply because they have to be slabbed for the set. If you have the money awesome, but I don't and that's a ton of wasted money for me that I don't have. I still want to do my Lincoln cent's set though because I like them and I want to finish a set, so it will be in an album in a mostly F-XF because that's what I can afford. I can't really afford the Key dates, but maybe someday. For now, I have a lot of cheaper pennies to buy before I require those!
As for my Type set, I love it, but again it's money. I've reached a point where the coins I need in the grades I would like to display a proper example of what the coin is, not a completely worn barely distinguishable chunk of metal, is becoming cost prohibitive. I know for many members on this board spending $200 for a coin is nothing, but for me, that's 3-4 months of saving.
So my long winded point is that for me set collecting isn't dead, but with the caveat only in lower grade unslabbed! If you want to compete in the Registry game even with the Everyman sets, you have to be reasonably well funded.
Collector of randomness. Photographer at PCGS. Lover of Harry Potter.
I've put together a few nice MS complete date and mintmark sets more than once but won't do it again, at least for sets that include a large number of common coins, such as Lincolns, Washingtons and Mercs up to MS66. Hard to dispose of common coins at prices close to purchase, lots of waste just to check off the whole list. . Was a lot of fun though, would not discourage a fellow collector to try it. Maybe if I had gone for MS67.....
I know of a lot more people other than just myself who still do it.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Buy your straw hat in January.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Plenty of sets are still going strong and being updated regularly in the Registry. So, perhaps the sky has lowered a bit, but it isn't falling, yet.
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I identify with WildIdea's commentary. If one has limited resources, focus on a great example for the type or even a coin that is outside the main. Build a small "wow" collection and feel the liberation! Free at last, free at last!
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
I gave up on completing a set of Liberty Nickels in PCGS MS 66 holders
I think the advent of TPG's during the past 30 years, which has led to thinking like the cut/paste, is what affects the concept of set collecting more than anything else. collectors have lost the ability to competently grade/price/buy raw coins because of the pricing structure that TPG's have initiated and it makes it too hard to assemble a set of coins that looks nice. MS66 Liberty Nickels are beautiful coins but expensive. a better way, if you like the series, might be to collect raw XF45/AU examples to get a nice, matched set. it might sound easy but would be a challenge.
I set collect, probably 8-10 different series' right now. I am in no hurry to complete any of them. at the same time I collect Type and SC$'s, so I tend not to be bored.....................ever.
Great observation! It’s very true that the trends in this hobby are changing rapidly as more and more people are going for type sets. I really hope that the value of specific date/mint mark sets do not decrease with time, as they are much more challenging to build...