uh, folks
basically in lower level comprehension talk (for us little people who don't understand the market)
he is talking about checking out the "fear factor poll" (VIX) that will be taken tomorrow
and we'll see what happens with the market
very impressive paragraph
I'm sure most clients were impressed when they received that in their morning email from you
The topic was the stock market decline affecting card prices.
You wrote.
I'm sure the collectors are oblivious to all of this.
And in no way is this a value judgement on hybrid collector/investors or pure investors.
Just a fact statement/observation.
I am not a mind reader. When someone says collectors are oblivious to all of this it is naturally assumed you are referring to the topic the OP started.
I apologize for the lack of clarity.
Mike my man, you owe no one an apology. I, along with the other Jake Taylors on the board (i.e. "I'm afraid I don't have much of a portfolio") knew exactly what you meant. Unfortunately, a few times per year, the stock market and investing becomes a board topic, and nothing brings out the Roger Dorns of the world like a good investing thread. The ensuing peacocking is as enlightening as it is entertaining. The boys arguing as if they are the only ones who know what they are talking about is a good read. The A+ threads will often reference someone's annual income, maximum bench press, type of vehicle driven, and maybe a picture or two of their significant other.
These threads are a good reminder of the world we live in and how uptight it can be because, well, wealth is everything. The concept that there are actually people who won't lose a wink of sleep much less change their collecting habits over a 4 digit drop in the Dow Jones (whatever that means) is beyond comprehension to some.
It is my belief that the Crisser will occasionally fire up one of these threads because he's bored and it provides him entertainment.
In any case Mike, never change and never apologize. To quote the great philosopher Trapper in Dana Point, "Tramps like us ,,,
@detroitfan2 said:
The boys arguing as if they are the only ones who know what they are talking about is a good read. The A+ threads will often reference someone's annual income, maximum bench press, type of vehicle driven, and maybe a picture or two of their significant other.
Co-sign. There are few things I enjoy more than a handful of insecure dudes having it out on the interwebs and trying to one-up each other as though there can actually be a point where the other person is going to be so impressed that they publicly concede. These situations often result in excellent memes being lobbed in by viewers from the bleachers. Just ake sure you have your irony chamois to wipe your screen every ten posts or so.
The topic was the stock market decline affecting card prices.
You wrote.
I'm sure the collectors are oblivious to all of this.
And in no way is this a value judgement on hybrid collector/investors or pure investors.
Just a fact statement/observation.
I am not a mind reader. When someone says collectors are oblivious to all of this it is naturally assumed you are referring to the topic the OP started.
I apologize for the lack of clarity.
Mike my man, you owe no one an apology. I, along with the other Jake Taylors on the board (i.e. "I'm afraid I don't have much of a portfolio") knew exactly what you meant. Unfortunately, a few times per year, the stock market and investing becomes a board topic, and nothing brings out the Roger Dorns of the world like a good investing thread. The ensuing peacocking is as enlightening as it is entertaining. The boys arguing as if they are the only ones who know what they are talking about is a good read. The A+ threads will often reference someone's annual income, maximum bench press, type of vehicle driven, and maybe a picture or two of their significant other.
These threads are a good reminder of the world we live in and how uptight it can be because, well, wealth is everything. The concept that there are actually people who won't lose a wink of sleep much less change their collecting habits over a 4 digit drop in the Dow Jones (whatever that means) is beyond comprehension to some.
It is my belief that the Crisser will occasionally fire up one of these threads because he's bored and it provides him entertainment.
In any case Mike, never change and never apologize. To quote the great philosopher Trapper in Dana Point, "Tramps like us ,,,
That's pretty much me as a collector in a nutshell. Stock Market means zero, or less than zero if possible, to my collection or collecting habits. Regardless of digit drop
edit to add: Knew what Stone(Mike) was talking about from the get-go. Felt like he had me in mind LOL
To those saying the market doesn't matter. Did your buying habits change in 2008 and 2009 when it was crashing?
I wasn't buying in 08 and the decline led me to buying cards at the end of 2009 because unlike options they can't go to zero.
It sounds like a few forget that the economy can be impacted significantly by the performance of the market and falling stock prices generally lead to people losing their jobs.
My buying habits have never changed based on the stock market. Not in 87, not anytime in the 90's, nor the 2k's. It would take a complete world wide economic collapse for there to be any change for me. But everybody collects differently , that's just me. Can't and won't speak for anyone else.
I think it may depend on how and what you collect - and if you intend to keep it.
Obviously you can't buy cards if you have no money BUT many people have no money in the stock market and/or don't collect cards that have exorbitant prices making their collecting habits impervious to the economy. In addition, if the card I'm chasing right now came up, I'd have to find a way...regardless of economic currents.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
Let's face it, if you are spending over >$100 on a piece of cardboard stuck between two pieces of plastic or a box of cardboard pieces wrapped in foil, you are not returning cans to buy gas. I doubt many of people on this board flip burgers for a living.
The impact of any short term economic changes doesn't change anyone's buying habit on this board. It would have to be a worldwide recession event to really impact the hobby. I am more worried about the hobby shrinking in size due to the lack of young collectors.
At one time the 1930-1950's cars were hot on the car auction shows, now it's all muscle cars. For all we know 30 years from now, electric vehicles and Prius' will be collected and no one will be collecting gasoline cars.
The concept of the wealth effect and how it relates to the card market would be an interesting one to try and study. There are quite a few items that if just a few people don't bid the prices realized are much lower. If there was a significant set back I could see some participants putting purchases on hold and that certainly could impact prices. There are loads of people who say I want to buy the market on a pullback and when it comes they freeze out of fear and do nothing. In reality I think this is a not a one size fits all situation. Some could care less what their retirement savings are doing and others look at it every minute.
What is funny is many parts of the card market fell last year and the belief was that couldn't happen unless a big economic setback occurred and at the same time the market sky rocketed. All of this stuff is impossible to predict in reality.
@Dpeck100 said:
The concept of the wealth effect and how it relates to the card market would be an interesting one to try and study. There are quite a few items that if just a few people don't bid the prices realized are much lower. If there was a significant set back I could see some participants putting purchases on hold and that certainly could impact prices. There are loads of people who say I want to buy the market on a pullback and when it comes they freeze out of fear and do nothing. In reality I think this is a not a one size fits all situation. Some could care less what their retirement savings is doing and others look at it every minute.
What is funny is many parts of the card market fell last year and the belief was that couldn't happen unless a big economic setback occurred and at the same time the market sky rocketed. All of this stuff is impossible to predict in reality.
Agreed - impossible to predict and it largely depends on the item. Plus you never know who the other bidder is and how deep their pockets are and that is what makes an auction fun and what helps set record prices (even though some record setting cards may not always change hands for the cash from the winning bid - a sad reality).
Recession, depression - the lone 1951 Bowman Mantle PSA 10 will not have its sale price impacted if it ever comes up for sale. Some cards or items, it doesn't matter.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
@ndleo said:
Let's face it, if you are spending over >$100 on a piece of cardboard stuck between two pieces of plastic or a box of cardboard pieces wrapped in foil, you are not returning cans to buy gas. I doubt many of people on this board flip burgers for a living.
The impact of any short term economic changes doesn't change anyone's buying habit on this board. It would have to be a worldwide recession event to really impact the hobby. I am more worried about the hobby shrinking in size due to the lack of young collectors.
At one time the 1930-1950's cars were hot on the car auction shows, now it's all muscle cars. For all we know 30 years from now, electric vehicles and Prius' will be collected and no one will be collecting gasoline cars.
All the more reason to collect for enjoyment rather than investment. I think the hobby will always have new blood and it will have spikes and droughts in popularity. And if it ever does sink to the bottom, I'll bet it's still tough to get a 52T311
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
Hopefully he sold back when he made that post. That thread got deleted which was intersting.
Bitcoin just completed another failed counter trend rally and will continue its journey south. The huge reversal today in stocks doesn't look good for tomorrow for risk assets.
The great thing about this hobby is that you don't need a lot of money to enjoy it. My interests are all over the place in terms of sport, era, rarity, player, but I definitely have a few niches that I could have fun with on just $50/month. The operative word there is fun. Enjoy what you collect, collect how you want to collect. In my experience, people admire the passion and the stories much more than they admire the price tag.
When gas shoot up from 2 to 5 a gallon and settles back at 3, I'd hardly call that back to earth! It's all relative and just a snapshot of time regardless of what you look at.
Bitcoin made some new players in the market. It shot up from 100 to 19000, is it back to earth now Btc $8248?
Some items transcend logical thinking. If vg Mantles start coming down in price, I know a whole lot of people who will be buying. I thought 7-10k was too dam high, like the rent in NYC it keeps climbing
I don't know that anyone truly knows what the long term holds for Bitcoin. Some say it is going to $400,000 and others to zero. The idea of a global electronic currency sounds really cool but the idea that a medium of exchange can have fluctuations that are so large is laughable. The idea that there is room for 1,400+ is even more laughable. In the end there may be a few survivors but the pain is going to be wide spread.
Two guys I went to high school with and are known fraudsters in real estate are starting a coin. In their marketing photo it says the only mistake you will make is you didn't buy enough. Unreal.
It looks like this market is going to retest the recent lows. Key stocks like FB are under their recent lows and that will create contagion.
If it doesn't come up type in XIV and take it back five years. This is one of the securities that blew up in one day. Seven years of gains selling volatility and bam it is over in 24 hours. Risk is miss-priced.
@galaxy27 said:
crisser is unable to impart his wisdom at this time due to living the high life with his homies after getting in on the ground floor with bitcoin
Reading this reminds me of the movie Beetlejuice - just hope saying the name does not make some people appear again all of the sudden Been enjoying the peace and quiet for a while!
In reality there is a myth that cards have gone up or are in a bullish market. Some cards have gone up, no doubt. Some have gone up under suspicious activity and a majority have fluctuated in a certain range for a decade.
I think it is also safe to say the truly rare and highly desirable collectibles will be last to lose value
Currently completing the following registry sets: Cardinal HOF's, 1961 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1972 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, 1980 Pittsburgh Pirates Team, Bill Mazeroski Master & Basic Sets, Roberto Clemente Master & Basic Sets, Willie Stargell Master & Basic Sets and Terry Bradshaw Basic Set
The SP 500 closed below the Monday low so anything can happen at this point. Not excited to see the futures up 200+ this morning. Traders will sell into it initially and if we turn red another big down day is coming.
The VIX only got to 35 yesterday which is probably not high enough to find a bottom yet.
During this correction Berkshire Hathaway has fallen $36,140 per share. Warren Buffett owns 282,611 shares or 37.51% of the outstanding common stock of the corporation.
His personal fortune on paper has dropped $10,213,561,540.
There are 221 shares sold short. While he has watched that much money on paper vanish, collectively there has been $7,986,940 made betting against the shares.
Who do you think Warren transferred 10 billion to?
@bishop said:
Spent the morning in my study watching my cards. So far, no major movement, but I am keeping them under ongoing surveillance until things calm down
@bishop said:
Spent the morning in my study watching my cards. So far, no major movement, but I am keeping them under ongoing surveillance until things calm down
Market is alive and strong. Last night the 57 Mantle PSA 8 went for a record price of $14,988 - got smoked with my snipe at the last second by two nuclear snipes. 56 Williams and Mantle also had huge sales as well. $8-9k for the 57 would be strong - at $15k that is PSA 8.5 territory and more than happy to let someone else pay it and good for the seller.
Guys these days are waiting for the really special, attractive specimens, then taking the big swing. Truly one-in-a-million centering on that one — superior in that respect to many an 8.5 and 9.
The bidding was spirited for a very similar example in the same technical grade back in December, and that ran me $10,000. But PWCC probably gets way more eyeballs than Sirius. And the 10k auction is not in VCP as they do not grab data from some auction houses, including Sirius.
@DM23HOF said:
Guys these days are waiting for the really special, attractive specimens, then taking the big swing. Truly one-in-a-million centering on that one — superior in that respect to many an 8.5 and 9.
The bidding was spirited for a very similar example in the same technical grade back in December, and that ran me $10,000. But PWCC probably gets way more eyeballs than Sirius. And the 10k auction is not in VCP as they do not grab data from some auction houses, including Sirius.
I don't collect vintage, but if I did, this may be the first card I buy. Have always loved this card; and very under-represented in the discussions of vintage cards. The '57's are also my favorite set.
Along with the '53 mays, this Mantle is a classic pose that transcends generations. This list is long for those waiting on the sidelines for this card to take a dip. I don't think a recession is going to thin out that herd.
Collecting PSA 9's from 1970-1977. Raw 9's from 72-77. Raw 10's from '78-'83. Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks. Prefer to buy in bulk.
Agreed. At the time I acquired this card pictured below in auction, the high recorded was $8900, with most average examples settling in at the $4000-$6000-ish range. The 10k mark may have seemed high, yet it didn't seem so drastic when I took the time to compare it to all the available images of 8s, 8.5s, and 9s. The only discernible difference when compared to last night's beautiful example is that the one below has better focus.
I always wondered how crazy kids must have been in 1957, to pull the 1957 Mantle from packs— since he was fresh off that legendary Triple Crown season and this card had the stats on back.
Add to that how notorious the 57 is for centering, tilt, and focus issues, and we get one heck of a tough card in the present day.
As a sidenote it is also hard to find a 57 Mick with a good autograph, as the dark background presents a challenge; it seems Mickey chose to sign most of these along the entirety of his body.
@KendallCat said:
Market is alive and strong. Last night the 57 Mantle PSA 8 went for a record price of $14,988 - got smoked with my snipe at the last second by two nuclear snipes. 56 Williams and Mantle also had huge sales as well. $8-9k for the 57 would be strong - at $15k that is PSA 8.5 territory and more than happy to let someone else pay it and good for the seller.
Well states.
Cue the Crisser to now jump in and say 1 card does not tell the truth and he was right all along
The 52 Topps Mantle in REA bombed at $300,000. This card may be an outlier but every auction house I look at I seem to see lower prices in general. I don't have a dog in the fight as I don't own any of the cards being auctioned off but just observing the prices.
The 52 Topps Mantle in REA bombed at $300,000. This card may be an outlier but every auction house I look at I seem to see lower prices in general. I don't have a dog in the fight as I don't own any of the cards being auctioned off but just observing the prices.
I agree, with the key phrase here being “in general.” In other words, most cards— like most of everything— are average. From what I have observed, were that Mantle at REA dead centered/above average, I bet it would’ve been close to or over the high. So it depends what anecdotal data one is digesting; it is specious to draw a generalization that includes “high end” cards from looking at average cards; it is equally specious to generalize about average cards from citing a rare, high-end example.
So-so looking cards, even in high grade flips...it’s a crapshoot as to how they will perform. But when the card is centered, or when it otherwise merits or exceeds the grade assigned, it will peform. These are of course outliers— yet the irony here is the outliers with eye appeal are the most desired.
Recent examples I have bought myself on the open market which attest to this range from a 1961 Mantle in 7.5 to a 1964 in 8 to a 1951 in 4.
When the first Mantle went for 282k and was highlighted on this board the overwhelming belief was it was an extreme outlier and the buyer was looking at an easy 100k quick profit. REA had every eyeball one could ever want and a solid looking 8 sat there and got no final bids. This type of activity can only be ignored for so long without recognizing a trend. You have obviously looked at dramatically more Mantle's than I but I don't ever recall seeing a PSA 8 that had killer centering. There might be a few but not many. Either way any Mantle that came up was smashing records on the way up. These weak sales do not help the primary trend of the broad market. Collectors who plan to hold cards can pay premiums for the best examples and be happy with what they own. That said the entire market isn't built on just long term collectors.
Regarding the 52 Mantle the high grade PSA 8’s do very well, but the off centered 8’s do not go for as much and rightly so. Centering seems to be a key element in price appreciation, and a 52 Mantle PSA 2.5 just went for over $40k recently. IMO with the 52 Mantle maybe 5-10% of all examples in any grade have strong centering, and less than 1% have elite centering better than 52/48. Just a tough card to find centered - same with the 57 Mantle.
The card world is evolving, for all types of people, on all points of the collector-investor spectrum. There is certainly activity that cannot be ignored for long, without recognizing a trend— and one type of activity is how the market continually treats certain cards that look better than their more numerous, average counterparts. While these high eye appeal cards are obviously in the minority from a pop report standpoint, the premiums they command on the sales block— be it BINs, auctions, or private sales— have been increasing over the years. From an investment standpoint, they will continue to defy trends taking place at the same time among their more average counterparts. This of course is due to the fact that all cards, even in the same exact grade, are far from equal and thus cannot be reductively herded together into one market moving all in one direction or the other.
This trend— of premiums being paid for the high eye appeal card— reached such a critical mass that one of the major sellers in our hobby, PWCC, chose to "formalize" the designation of such cards in their auctions, what with the "H-E" logo and sticker (whatever each of us think about that whole aspect of their auctions is of course an entirely separate topic). That says a lot. Further evidence surrounds us all, with the ubiquitous terms "centered" and "high end" in seemingly every listing (even when the card is 60/40, lol). The prevalence of these terms speaks to the existence of two actual markets; sellers are trying to say their card belongs in one market and not the other. Of course our eyes are the ultimate arbiters of whether a card belongs in the rarefied group.
This evolution continues, as these outlier cards, anomalies, high-end cards, whatever we want to call them, bring increasing premiums. Those who see this nuance, who see how buyers are in effect parsing cards into two discrete markets— one for average cards and one for the "high end"— have done very well financially, buying "high-end" cards when the average examples exhibit a downward trend and the masses fear all cards are going the same way, or when a seller underestimates the premium for eye appeal.
Let's take for example the 1957 Mantle which Kendall brought up. Let's posit that someone owned a centered, focused 8 like mine, and believed the card was trending down when two consecutive, average-looking examples sold in the 4k range. Let's further posit the owner sells his centered card in a BIN or private sale, even for a slight premium over average, at 5500. Then along comes the dead centered card at auction, and it hits 15k. In this hypothetical case, the seller conflated the two markets and failed to realize that his card, albeit a PSA 8, would perform drastically different than the two average cards did. It is in a way its own animal, and will draw in the growing number of buyers who will treat it as such. Had he seen the nuance of the evolving card world and embraced the trend, he could have auctioned it for 15k or set the BIN much higher, and gotten 10k or a tad higher.
I would hazard the opinion that as time marches on, we will see the gap/pricing disparity between high-end cards and average cards grow, as buyers pass on the average card in their desired grade range and wait to take the aggressive swing on the elite example, when it surfaces.
Interesting when I check completed sales that this copy went for essentially three times as much as recent copies. It is early but my eyes can't see the difference in centering from the Probstein example that went for $5,655 but that copy has some chipping along the right edge.
It would be interesting to see if the card was put on EBAY at a BIN best offer a few months from now in the same holder and if it would bring 15k. I was totally naïve to the review game or bump game when I started learning about the intricacies of the graded card market and I have to think this card is going to be taking a trip to Newport Beach with the expectation of a serious chance of returning in an 8.5 holder.
It seems reasonable that there will be premiums in a grade range but a multiplier of three seems extreme. Maybe it isn't.
This example of the 57 Mantle, which is impossible to find even close to better than 55/45 let alone 50/50, seems to confirm the theory that when it comes to well centered/elite examples collectors will pay a premium. I have been trying to find a dead centered one in any grade for over 2 years and they just don’t come up, and despite VCP being $5-7k I had a snipe at $10k and did not blink.
Think about certain wrestling cards like Hulk, Andre, Captain Lou where 8’s are a dime a dozen, 9’s are rare, and 10’s are unicorns. A 57 Mantle centered, a 52 Mantle centered, a 53 Mantle with a clean bottom red border just don’t come up but once in a blue moon. I have seen offers of 3x VCP for examples of these cards due their rarity, and I think the collecting world has spoken in regards to condition rarity with their collective wallets. There are 57 Mantles with BIN’s right now for $5-6k that are just sitting there on eBay so it is not supply and demand for the card but supply and demand for the rare centered examples that people will pay for.
That said I think drawing a comparison to wrestling cards is very tough because there is a fraction of the collector base and I am not aware of a card where someone would pay three times as much within a certain grade and if so it would be a dealer who felt extremely confident it was under graded and plays the re grade game.
It makes much more sense with these high dollar vintage cards where there is a much deeper market of buyers and reviews have led to massive pay days for aggressive paying buyers or collectors have chased a card with specific attributes for quite sometime and aren’t concerned with resale capabilities in the short run.
This fragmented pricing is going to make it even more difficult for the market though as dealers will have to be more cautious with paying percentages of VCP.
@DM23HOF said:
Agreed. At the time I acquired this card pictured below in auction, the high recorded was $8900, with most average examples settling in at the $4000-$6000-ish range. The 10k mark may have seemed high, yet it didn't seem so drastic when I took the time to compare it to all the available images of 8s, 8.5s, and 9s. The only discernible difference when compared to last night's beautiful example is that the one below has better focus.
I always wondered how crazy kids must have been in 1957, to pull the 1957 Mantle from packs— since he was fresh off that legendary Triple Crown season and this card had the stats on back.
Add to that how notorious the 57 is for centering, tilt, and focus issues, and we get one heck of a tough card in the present day.
As a sidenote it is also hard to find a 57 Mick with a good autograph, as the dark background presents a challenge; it seems Mickey chose to sign most of these along the entirety of his body.
Man, I cannot wait to see you put together a signed run of Mantle cards. Love that you are dipping your toes into signed vintage! I have seen another forum member (at least I think he was on this forum) complete the run. His username started with "b-e-g" and now I can't remember the rest. He used to post his run on the Net54 board as well, but I believe he got banned.
His run of signed Mantle cards is one of the most impressive things I have seen. I hope you are able to do it as well. It will be interesting to be along for the ride!
Comments
uh, folks
basically in lower level comprehension talk (for us little people who don't understand the market)
he is talking about checking out the "fear factor poll" (VIX) that will be taken tomorrow
and we'll see what happens with the market
very impressive paragraph
I'm sure most clients were impressed when they received that in their morning email from you
I don't produce my own memos. Just talking on a message board.
This sounds like when the dealer draws a 5 with a 16 showing after I just doubled down into a 20.
Mike my man, you owe no one an apology. I, along with the other Jake Taylors on the board (i.e. "I'm afraid I don't have much of a portfolio") knew exactly what you meant. Unfortunately, a few times per year, the stock market and investing becomes a board topic, and nothing brings out the Roger Dorns of the world like a good investing thread. The ensuing peacocking is as enlightening as it is entertaining. The boys arguing as if they are the only ones who know what they are talking about is a good read. The A+ threads will often reference someone's annual income, maximum bench press, type of vehicle driven, and maybe a picture or two of their significant other.
These threads are a good reminder of the world we live in and how uptight it can be because, well, wealth is everything. The concept that there are actually people who won't lose a wink of sleep much less change their collecting habits over a 4 digit drop in the Dow Jones (whatever that means) is beyond comprehension to some.
It is my belief that the Crisser will occasionally fire up one of these threads because he's bored and it provides him entertainment.
In any case Mike, never change and never apologize. To quote the great philosopher Trapper in Dana Point, "Tramps like us ,,,
@detroitfan2
Nice post.
There's actually a bench thread right now because a guy found a stash of 1968 Topps and I think there were 3 or 4 of his rookie card already...
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Co-sign. There are few things I enjoy more than a handful of insecure dudes having it out on the interwebs and trying to one-up each other as though there can actually be a point where the other person is going to be so impressed that they publicly concede. These situations often result in excellent memes being lobbed in by viewers from the bleachers. Just ake sure you have your irony chamois to wipe your screen every ten posts or so.
Arthur
That's pretty much me as a collector in a nutshell. Stock Market means zero, or less than zero if possible, to my collection or collecting habits. Regardless of digit drop
edit to add: Knew what Stone(Mike) was talking about from the get-go. Felt like he had me in mind LOL
To those saying the market doesn't matter. Did your buying habits change in 2008 and 2009 when it was crashing?
I wasn't buying in 08 and the decline led me to buying cards at the end of 2009 because unlike options they can't go to zero.
It sounds like a few forget that the economy can be impacted significantly by the performance of the market and falling stock prices generally lead to people losing their jobs.
My buying habits have never changed based on the stock market. Not in 87, not anytime in the 90's, nor the 2k's. It would take a complete world wide economic collapse for there to be any change for me. But everybody collects differently , that's just me. Can't and won't speak for anyone else.
@Dpeck100
I think it may depend on how and what you collect - and if you intend to keep it.
Obviously you can't buy cards if you have no money BUT many people have no money in the stock market and/or don't collect cards that have exorbitant prices making their collecting habits impervious to the economy. In addition, if the card I'm chasing right now came up, I'd have to find a way...regardless of economic currents.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
Let's face it, if you are spending over >$100 on a piece of cardboard stuck between two pieces of plastic or a box of cardboard pieces wrapped in foil, you are not returning cans to buy gas. I doubt many of people on this board flip burgers for a living.
The impact of any short term economic changes doesn't change anyone's buying habit on this board. It would have to be a worldwide recession event to really impact the hobby. I am more worried about the hobby shrinking in size due to the lack of young collectors.
At one time the 1930-1950's cars were hot on the car auction shows, now it's all muscle cars. For all we know 30 years from now, electric vehicles and Prius' will be collected and no one will be collecting gasoline cars.
The concept of the wealth effect and how it relates to the card market would be an interesting one to try and study. There are quite a few items that if just a few people don't bid the prices realized are much lower. If there was a significant set back I could see some participants putting purchases on hold and that certainly could impact prices. There are loads of people who say I want to buy the market on a pullback and when it comes they freeze out of fear and do nothing. In reality I think this is a not a one size fits all situation. Some could care less what their retirement savings are doing and others look at it every minute.
What is funny is many parts of the card market fell last year and the belief was that couldn't happen unless a big economic setback occurred and at the same time the market sky rocketed. All of this stuff is impossible to predict in reality.
Agreed - impossible to predict and it largely depends on the item. Plus you never know who the other bidder is and how deep their pockets are and that is what makes an auction fun and what helps set record prices (even though some record setting cards may not always change hands for the cash from the winning bid - a sad reality).
Recession, depression - the lone 1951 Bowman Mantle PSA 10 will not have its sale price impacted if it ever comes up for sale. Some cards or items, it doesn't matter.
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
All the more reason to collect for enjoyment rather than investment. I think the hobby will always have new blood and it will have spikes and droughts in popularity. And if it ever does sink to the bottom, I'll bet it's still tough to get a 52T311
Curious about the rare, mysterious and beautiful 1951 Wheaties Premium Photos?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/987963/1951-wheaties-premium-photos-set-registry#latest
@1951WheatiesPremium
There are definitely a few cards that are immune to the macro economic forces but obviously just a handful and only in specific grades.
crisser is unable to impart his wisdom at this time due to living the high life with his homies after getting in on the ground floor with bitcoin
@galaxy27
Hopefully he sold back when he made that post. That thread got deleted which was intersting.
Bitcoin just completed another failed counter trend rally and will continue its journey south. The huge reversal today in stocks doesn't look good for tomorrow for risk assets.
The great thing about this hobby is that you don't need a lot of money to enjoy it. My interests are all over the place in terms of sport, era, rarity, player, but I definitely have a few niches that I could have fun with on just $50/month. The operative word there is fun. Enjoy what you collect, collect how you want to collect. In my experience, people admire the passion and the stories much more than they admire the price tag.
Arthur
When gas shoot up from 2 to 5 a gallon and settles back at 3, I'd hardly call that back to earth! It's all relative and just a snapshot of time regardless of what you look at.
Bitcoin made some new players in the market. It shot up from 100 to 19000, is it back to earth now Btc $8248?
Some items transcend logical thinking. If vg Mantles start coming down in price, I know a whole lot of people who will be buying. I thought 7-10k was too dam high, like the rent in NYC it keeps climbing
I don't know that anyone truly knows what the long term holds for Bitcoin. Some say it is going to $400,000 and others to zero. The idea of a global electronic currency sounds really cool but the idea that a medium of exchange can have fluctuations that are so large is laughable. The idea that there is room for 1,400+ is even more laughable. In the end there may be a few survivors but the pain is going to be wide spread.
Two guys I went to high school with and are known fraudsters in real estate are starting a coin. In their marketing photo it says the only mistake you will make is you didn't buy enough. Unreal.
It looks like this market is going to retest the recent lows. Key stocks like FB are under their recent lows and that will create contagion.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
If it doesn't come up type in XIV and take it back five years. This is one of the securities that blew up in one day. Seven years of gains selling volatility and bam it is over in 24 hours. Risk is miss-priced.
Reading this reminds me of the movie Beetlejuice - just hope saying the name does not make some people appear again all of the sudden
Been enjoying the peace and quiet for a while!
In reality there is a myth that cards have gone up or are in a bullish market. Some cards have gone up, no doubt. Some have gone up under suspicious activity and a majority have fluctuated in a certain range for a decade.
I think it is also safe to say the truly rare and highly desirable collectibles will be last to lose value
Going to be another crazy day.
The SP 500 closed below the Monday low so anything can happen at this point. Not excited to see the futures up 200+ this morning. Traders will sell into it initially and if we turn red another big down day is coming.
The VIX only got to 35 yesterday which is probably not high enough to find a bottom yet.
Yeah, been waiting for a one world government
and the slapping of the 666 on my forehead for a while now
can't wait for it
read Revelations any time ?
Awesome
something different
for a while, I really thought you had a thing for looking up Fonzie's crack
maybe you do
not that there is anything wrong with that
If AMZN takes at $1,320 today it is going to be a blood bath.
Another sad day ...
During this correction Berkshire Hathaway has fallen $36,140 per share. Warren Buffett owns 282,611 shares or 37.51% of the outstanding common stock of the corporation.
His personal fortune on paper has dropped $10,213,561,540.
There are 221 shares sold short. While he has watched that much money on paper vanish, collectively there has been $7,986,940 made betting against the shares.
Who do you think Warren transferred 10 billion to?
Spent the morning in my study watching my cards. So far, no major movement, but I am keeping them under ongoing surveillance until things calm down
Bowman Baseball -1948-1955
Fleer Baseball-1923, 1959-2007
Al
Nice thing about cards is they can't go to zero.
No position on AMZN but hopefully it holds the 50 day at $1,278 or a fresh round of stops will trigger.
Agree to disagree?
Kevin
Some absolutely incredible action to watch. 600 point bounce in 30 minutes!
This market might close on the highs. Amazing volatility.
Market is alive and strong. Last night the 57 Mantle PSA 8 went for a record price of $14,988 - got smoked with my snipe at the last second by two nuclear snipes. 56 Williams and Mantle also had huge sales as well. $8-9k for the 57 would be strong - at $15k that is PSA 8.5 territory and more than happy to let someone else pay it and good for the seller.
Guys these days are waiting for the really special, attractive specimens, then taking the big swing. Truly one-in-a-million centering on that one — superior in that respect to many an 8.5 and 9.
The bidding was spirited for a very similar example in the same technical grade back in December, and that ran me $10,000. But PWCC probably gets way more eyeballs than Sirius. And the 10k auction is not in VCP as they do not grab data from some auction houses, including Sirius.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
I don't collect vintage, but if I did, this may be the first card I buy. Have always loved this card; and very under-represented in the discussions of vintage cards. The '57's are also my favorite set.
Along with the '53 mays, this Mantle is a classic pose that transcends generations. This list is long for those waiting on the sidelines for this card to take a dip. I don't think a recession is going to thin out that herd.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
Agreed. At the time I acquired this card pictured below in auction, the high recorded was $8900, with most average examples settling in at the $4000-$6000-ish range. The 10k mark may have seemed high, yet it didn't seem so drastic when I took the time to compare it to all the available images of 8s, 8.5s, and 9s. The only discernible difference when compared to last night's beautiful example is that the one below has better focus.
I always wondered how crazy kids must have been in 1957, to pull the 1957 Mantle from packs— since he was fresh off that legendary Triple Crown season and this card had the stats on back.
Add to that how notorious the 57 is for centering, tilt, and focus issues, and we get one heck of a tough card in the present day.
As a sidenote it is also hard to find a 57 Mick with a good autograph, as the dark background presents a challenge; it seems Mickey chose to sign most of these along the entirety of his body.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
Well states.
Cue the Crisser to now jump in and say 1 card does not tell the truth and he was right all along
@HighGradeLegends
The 52 Topps Mantle in REA bombed at $300,000. This card may be an outlier but every auction house I look at I seem to see lower prices in general. I don't have a dog in the fight as I don't own any of the cards being auctioned off but just observing the prices.
Nice Mantle in a pre-.5 era holder! Have you submitted to try to bump it?
I agree, with the key phrase here being “in general.” In other words, most cards— like most of everything— are average. From what I have observed, were that Mantle at REA dead centered/above average, I bet it would’ve been close to or over the high. So it depends what anecdotal data one is digesting; it is specious to draw a generalization that includes “high end” cards from looking at average cards; it is equally specious to generalize about average cards from citing a rare, high-end example.
So-so looking cards, even in high grade flips...it’s a crapshoot as to how they will perform. But when the card is centered, or when it otherwise merits or exceeds the grade assigned, it will peform. These are of course outliers— yet the irony here is the outliers with eye appeal are the most desired.
Recent examples I have bought myself on the open market which attest to this range from a 1961 Mantle in 7.5 to a 1964 in 8 to a 1951 in 4.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
@DM23HOF
When the first Mantle went for 282k and was highlighted on this board the overwhelming belief was it was an extreme outlier and the buyer was looking at an easy 100k quick profit. REA had every eyeball one could ever want and a solid looking 8 sat there and got no final bids. This type of activity can only be ignored for so long without recognizing a trend. You have obviously looked at dramatically more Mantle's than I but I don't ever recall seeing a PSA 8 that had killer centering. There might be a few but not many. Either way any Mantle that came up was smashing records on the way up. These weak sales do not help the primary trend of the broad market. Collectors who plan to hold cards can pay premiums for the best examples and be happy with what they own. That said the entire market isn't built on just long term collectors.
Regarding the 52 Mantle the high grade PSA 8’s do very well, but the off centered 8’s do not go for as much and rightly so. Centering seems to be a key element in price appreciation, and a 52 Mantle PSA 2.5 just went for over $40k recently. IMO with the 52 Mantle maybe 5-10% of all examples in any grade have strong centering, and less than 1% have elite centering better than 52/48. Just a tough card to find centered - same with the 57 Mantle.
KC
The card world is evolving, for all types of people, on all points of the collector-investor spectrum. There is certainly activity that cannot be ignored for long, without recognizing a trend— and one type of activity is how the market continually treats certain cards that look better than their more numerous, average counterparts. While these high eye appeal cards are obviously in the minority from a pop report standpoint, the premiums they command on the sales block— be it BINs, auctions, or private sales— have been increasing over the years. From an investment standpoint, they will continue to defy trends taking place at the same time among their more average counterparts. This of course is due to the fact that all cards, even in the same exact grade, are far from equal and thus cannot be reductively herded together into one market moving all in one direction or the other.
This trend— of premiums being paid for the high eye appeal card— reached such a critical mass that one of the major sellers in our hobby, PWCC, chose to "formalize" the designation of such cards in their auctions, what with the "H-E" logo and sticker (whatever each of us think about that whole aspect of their auctions is of course an entirely separate topic). That says a lot. Further evidence surrounds us all, with the ubiquitous terms "centered" and "high end" in seemingly every listing (even when the card is 60/40, lol). The prevalence of these terms speaks to the existence of two actual markets; sellers are trying to say their card belongs in one market and not the other. Of course our eyes are the ultimate arbiters of whether a card belongs in the rarefied group.
This evolution continues, as these outlier cards, anomalies, high-end cards, whatever we want to call them, bring increasing premiums. Those who see this nuance, who see how buyers are in effect parsing cards into two discrete markets— one for average cards and one for the "high end"— have done very well financially, buying "high-end" cards when the average examples exhibit a downward trend and the masses fear all cards are going the same way, or when a seller underestimates the premium for eye appeal.
Let's take for example the 1957 Mantle which Kendall brought up. Let's posit that someone owned a centered, focused 8 like mine, and believed the card was trending down when two consecutive, average-looking examples sold in the 4k range. Let's further posit the owner sells his centered card in a BIN or private sale, even for a slight premium over average, at 5500. Then along comes the dead centered card at auction, and it hits 15k. In this hypothetical case, the seller conflated the two markets and failed to realize that his card, albeit a PSA 8, would perform drastically different than the two average cards did. It is in a way its own animal, and will draw in the growing number of buyers who will treat it as such. Had he seen the nuance of the evolving card world and embraced the trend, he could have auctioned it for 15k or set the BIN much higher, and gotten 10k or a tad higher.
I would hazard the opinion that as time marches on, we will see the gap/pricing disparity between high-end cards and average cards grow, as buyers pass on the average card in their desired grade range and wait to take the aggressive swing on the elite example, when it surfaces.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
@DM23HOF
Interesting when I check completed sales that this copy went for essentially three times as much as recent copies. It is early but my eyes can't see the difference in centering from the Probstein example that went for $5,655 but that copy has some chipping along the right edge.
It would be interesting to see if the card was put on EBAY at a BIN best offer a few months from now in the same holder and if it would bring 15k. I was totally naïve to the review game or bump game when I started learning about the intricacies of the graded card market and I have to think this card is going to be taking a trip to Newport Beach with the expectation of a serious chance of returning in an 8.5 holder.
It seems reasonable that there will be premiums in a grade range but a multiplier of three seems extreme. Maybe it isn't.
This example of the 57 Mantle, which is impossible to find even close to better than 55/45 let alone 50/50, seems to confirm the theory that when it comes to well centered/elite examples collectors will pay a premium. I have been trying to find a dead centered one in any grade for over 2 years and they just don’t come up, and despite VCP being $5-7k I had a snipe at $10k and did not blink.
Think about certain wrestling cards like Hulk, Andre, Captain Lou where 8’s are a dime a dozen, 9’s are rare, and 10’s are unicorns. A 57 Mantle centered, a 52 Mantle centered, a 53 Mantle with a clean bottom red border just don’t come up but once in a blue moon. I have seen offers of 3x VCP for examples of these cards due their rarity, and I think the collecting world has spoken in regards to condition rarity with their collective wallets. There are 57 Mantles with BIN’s right now for $5-6k that are just sitting there on eBay so it is not supply and demand for the card but supply and demand for the rare centered examples that people will pay for.
KC
@KendallCat
I certainly get your point.
That said I think drawing a comparison to wrestling cards is very tough because there is a fraction of the collector base and I am not aware of a card where someone would pay three times as much within a certain grade and if so it would be a dealer who felt extremely confident it was under graded and plays the re grade game.
It makes much more sense with these high dollar vintage cards where there is a much deeper market of buyers and reviews have led to massive pay days for aggressive paying buyers or collectors have chased a card with specific attributes for quite sometime and aren’t concerned with resale capabilities in the short run.
This fragmented pricing is going to make it even more difficult for the market though as dealers will have to be more cautious with paying percentages of VCP.
Man, I cannot wait to see you put together a signed run of Mantle cards. Love that you are dipping your toes into signed vintage! I have seen another forum member (at least I think he was on this forum) complete the run. His username started with "b-e-g" and now I can't remember the rest. He used to post his run on the Net54 board as well, but I believe he got banned.
His run of signed Mantle cards is one of the most impressive things I have seen. I hope you are able to do it as well. It will be interesting to be along for the ride!