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Price of cards coming back down to earth........
Mickey Mays
Posts: 289 ✭✭✭
Now that stock market is falling?
Too soon to say ?
Thoughts
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Mickey Mays
Posts: 289 ✭✭✭
Mickey Mays
Posts: 289 ✭✭✭
Mickey Mays
Posts: 289 ✭✭✭
Comments
All it takes are two guys who've got to have it. That can be the difference between a thousand dollar sale and a four hundred dollar sale. Stocks are down 5-10 percent. They were up 30-40% since Trump took office. Market isn't "falling" as of yet. Perhaps in a week or so, but not now.
all it takes is for margin calls to be made & lots of folks having to find liquidity FAST
and if they don't have GLD in their portfolio, they will find liquidity elsewhere
not only are they selling, but they aren't buying either
A seller can not sell without a buyer buying.
When the stock market crashed in 1987, investors flooded the baseball card market, and prices rose. They felt it was a safer bet.
The same thing could happen again. We just won't know until it happens.
Steve
it was implied at high prices
new buyers arise with lower prices
that was the start of the over printed toilet paper era
everyone thought that stuff would put their kids through school
every basement had a case or two of unopened cards
I thought prices came down in 2009 and after for while
I doubt a few days of falling prices are going to have any impact on the card market. It seems to me that you could make the case that the huge run we have seen in the past 16 months could have actually hurt the card market. You have a massive crypto currency bubble develop which makes the dot.com bubble look like child's play so these forces could have attracted capital away from cards. This sell off in stocks is long overdue with the least volatile market in history occurring last year. I have been involved in the stock market for almost 20 years and in recent months I have never felt more stupid about the market with it's relentless run up. We reached an RSI (relative strength) on the Dow of over 90. The most overbought market I have ever seen and one of the most overbought in history. Sharp, fast corrections occur when markets are this extended.
In terms of collectors being forced to liquidate, unless they put on some crazy trades like naked puts or put all of their money into crypto I doubt you will see forced selling. If this decline turns into a much larger, longer, and painful correction than cards could easily be impacted as collectors are less confident about the future and want to have more cash.
If someone is buying cards with money they might need in the short term they can always lose money regardless of the stock market and it is a very risky proposition. Some years ago I was fortunate enough to be on the receiving end of where a collector needed money fast and as the saying goes cash is king.
agree
even during the last crash, it took about 2-3 years to fully hit the bottom
who knows if you'll ever see that again
but if anyone is waiting for that, to make financial moves, good luck
too large of a chunk of your life is wasted waiting or hoping it will happen
even if it does, you have no idea of what will be impacted and what wont be
live for the now ...and roll your 401K's to a money market ASAP :-)
I'm sure the collectors are oblivious to all of this.
And in no way is this a value judgement on hybrid collector/investors or pure investors.
Just a fact statement/observation.
I don't see how if you have money to buy cards you could be oblivious to a 1,175 point decline in one day to the Dow Jones.
It may not phase you but you would have to live under a rock to not hear about it.
One thing that is certain is tomorrow will be a wild day of trading with the massive surge in the VIX.
Fast move lower in the futures this hour!
Mix in the CFTC / SEC Crypto meeting tomorrow and you may have a lot of rattled folks.
Kevin
Kevin
Whether the market is up a ton or down a ton, if I see a card I want badly for my collection I am going all out for it. And if my snipe collides with someone else who feels the same way, there will be a record price set for that card— even in the midst of a crashing stock market. Happy to pay lower prices though for the cards I love collecting, so if my competition for them has lots of worth tied up in stocks, fine by me.
Instagram: mattyc_collection
There is still so much money that is going to money heaven. This bubble is no where done letting out the air!
I agree. Trick is to remember the dot com bust. Amazon went from $100 to $5. There will be a few survivors. There will also be a more than a few Pet.coms. The underlying tech is to important for global banking. The tokens may become useless but a few companies won’t.
Kevin
Kevin
@LOTSOS
I have used the AMZN going from $0.38 to $118, back to $8 and then higher as a potential outcome but this bust is going to hurt a lot of people. Loads of fraudsters moving in on the space and the decline is no where over. The huge counter trend rally's are so bearish and I don't think I have ever been more pessimistic on anything in my life. I fully expect Bitcoin to retest the $1,200 level where it broke out. Maybe even lower. I soooo wish you could short this stuff!!!
AMZN with relative strength through this craziness plus a long term competitive advantage makes it a buy imo. Luckily I had most of my $$ on the sidelines due to a 401k transfer to an IRA so I had only 14% of it in the market right now - not by design but just have not had a chance to buy much since it converted over. Bought some Amazon, Berkshire, Apple, and some index finds. Now just waiting for the right entry point or probably DCA over the next couple of years.
First a disclaimer: I don’t know anything.
@Dpeck100 can’t you use a CFD?
Kevin
Also in your belief of it testing $1200 my opinion is anything below $2500 is apocalyptic. That is the minimum it currently costs to mine a single coin based on energy use.
Not saying that $1200 isn’t possible because it certainly is (I believe it very well might) but at that level it would be like hitting the reset button and sending most cryptos back to fractions of a penny with almost none surviving. Only a few who could decouple would survive.
Kevin
Kevin
Only way I know to short is with futures, but you'll have to margin. I don't know the contract specs for sure but I think it may be 100% margining.
Not sure if you can short GBTC - it's an investment trust, so probably not. There's a fair bit of tracking error on it, too, if I remember.
@bounce
40k per contract to short which is insane and getting a borrow on GBTC is impossible. Still at a stupid premium to its net asset value.
Went to bed early and just woke up to let my dog go the bathroom.
Futures down 1,221 on the DOW.
How can this market not affect cards? When this much wealth is wiped out in 3 days, I would think lot of folks are reconsidering where they spend their money and how. Prioritizing their discretionary income possibly.
Cards have had a blistering 7+ year bull market. The correction was inevitable, and IMO, it's here now. The sellers that moved their inventory and priced correctly, did well. The sellers that priced their product 20-30% higher than market, and it's been sitting for months/years, they're going to get clobbered as the bottom continues to fall out from underneath them; while they chase the bottom, always 30% higher, waiting for the millionaire with loads of cash to burn.
Collecting Unopened from '72-'83; mostly BBCE certified boxes/cases/racks.
Prefer to buy in bulk.
These threads always come up when there is a war, gas prices rise sharply, or when the stock market goes down for a few days. This maybe the one that finally takes down the hobby but it will have to worse than the Great Recession. That hurt the hobby for a short time but it came back.
Fluctuations in the market have no impact on my card buying. My card money comes from income I earn during the year not from stocks or bonds. Anyone that uses money that is targeted for retirement or investment on cards is crazy (IMO).
Robb
Is it sad that the first thing I thought of reading this was "selling psa graded cards for less than the cost of grading"?
wealth is NEVER wiped out
and money does NOT go to heaven
wealth is simply transferred
Yes wealth is wiped out. The only way wealth is transferred in the securities market is when someone is on the other side of the trade. A typical stock might have a few percent of the float sold short. The rest goes to money heaven. Or money hell if you want to think that way. Either way it vanishes. Period.
Fasten your seat belts. The market came back off the lows way to fast. Going to turn red again today.
why did the market / money / wealth / share values / whatever you want to call it
go down yesterday ?
Fear amplified by automation.
?
Machines run by algorithms are trading the market.
There are some major hedge funds caught on the wrong side of selling volatility too and will need to liquidate positions.
the only reason the market goes down
are when sell orders are made
bottom line
they sell at the high prices
you are left holding the new lower price
wealth is transferred from you to them
wash, rinse, repeat
a very fundamental rule, that is forgotten
due to all the shills on TV
telling you to remain the market no matter what
lose half, and feel good about it 5 years later when its big again
oh wait ... that was your OWN money that you dumped back into your 401K
believe what you want
People sell out of fear as the price drops. This lowers the price further. Automated trading systems then kickin when their sell parameters are met causeing more sale orders and yet lower prices. More people become scared as they watch the price drop so they sell. Price drops again and more preset sell programs are tripped which creates more sell orders. More sell orders fewer buy orders means the price continues downward. And the snowball continues down the hill until more buyers step in to stop the bleeding.
Kevin
Kevin
BGS Buyer
LOL
You obviously have no clue how the market works.
Now it makes more sense why you buy BGS sheet cut cards.
This is why when people get upset about short sellers they are clueless. Those are buy orders under the market. When they don't exist the prices fall much faster.
feel free to take cheap shots
I don't mind at all
I guess you've taken all the courses on how to make the market work for you
I'm sure the truth was in there somewhere
like I said, believe what you want
watch the news today, they always tell the truth
at least in communists countries, people KNEW they were being lied to
This stuff isn't that hard to figure out. When you have been trading for twenty years and give financial advice for a living it just comes with the territory.
When you have been trading for twenty years and give financial advice for a living it just comes with the territory.
well, there you go
no wonder I was taken down so hard
you're part of the problem
financial advisors ... market up or down ... you guys win with your fees
My wife sees a lot of this (tax manager) ... you guys make just as much on fees as your clients make on gains
LOL me again
these things must be like Christmas for advisors
on the phone with their high net clients
'advising them on the situation'
... "hey, let's reallocate your portfolio"
... cha-ching !
Taken down so hard?
You wrote perhaps the least informed response I have ever read on this message board.
In order for this thread to find another gear, we need to hear from the Crisser...
there is no plan, with all the occasional take downs & starting all over
I am still long on 86 Topps Traded sets - Canseco, Bo, Bonds, Will Clark, Joyner.. how can I go wrong?
The swings today have been incredible to watch. 400 point bounce in the last 35 minutes.
Wow David did you ever misunderstand what I was saying.
The OP was about "Price of cards coming back down to earth"
I wasn't saying "anything" about the DOW - I meant that people who collect for fun - especially affordable stuff - don't live or die by the fluctuation of the price guide - "nothing" to do with the DOW.
I mean this from the heart. The day I lose sleep over the drop in a card - is the day it's time to find another hobby - I'm speaking for myself - it's supposed to be fun - that's all I'm saying.
And that's why I also stated this "wasn't" a value judgement on anyone who's collecting for investment - for sure - that's also an approach. Just not mine.
@Stone193
The topic was the stock market decline affecting card prices.
You wrote.
I'm sure the collectors are oblivious to all of this.
And in no way is this a value judgement on hybrid collector/investors or pure investors.
Just a fact statement/observation.
I am not a mind reader. When someone says collectors are oblivious to all of this it is naturally assumed you are referring to the topic the OP started.
I apologize for the lack of clarity.
Is it safe for me to get back on eBay?
This selloff is going to be very tough to call. The VIX stayed at greatly reduced levels for a long time and gave option sellers free premium and created a ton of leveraged strategies that are blowing up at the moment. You can have lots of mark to market calls that destroy people from intra day volatility and this is the first real hit in years. A popular strategy in wealth management shops is an options over lay strategy that sells put and call spreads over portfolios and they are at max loss at the moment. These are generally low risk but in reality with the VIX as low as it is the market became much too close and the violent move higher and lower we have had in the past five weeks has thrown a ton of strategies off. Options losses are permanent trust me I know from personal experience. With the VIX at 30 tomorrow will be extremely volatile too. I could see this going either way. We have been conditioned to think it always comes back and are dumb for thinking this rally might end but for the first time the VIX spiked to 50 which means there is real pain in the market. I felt like I was watching a pin ball machine following the DOW today. So many paths of prices traveled.