Key Dates and demand
partagas
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I am sure this has been discussed ad nauseam, however I ask it with a twist.
Please name a key date from your series of expertise that you feel is under or over priced in certain grades given its availabilty and cost relative to the demand of the market.
Over priced: My candidate for the start of this thread is the 1842 small date seated quarter. Very neat type, however it is available in low grades up to VF without much difficulty. Very overpriced given the supply and demand for a low grade example.
Under priced 1842 small date seated quarter in XF to mint state is a truly dfficult coin to find. I believe only 2 uncirculated examples have been graded by our hosts.
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Comments
Overpriced
The 1904-S half in xf-au grades. Readily available with just a small effort. Twice as much as any other coin in the series.
Underpriced
Still looking. Although nice original high grade Barber halves have come down in price lately.
So OP used 1842 sd.25 as one example meeting BOTH criteria....?
So many key dates are like this.
Like the 1901s .25, which should be a $300 coin in ag3 rather than 2500- and dropping currently.
Whereas above xf probably, is a true rare coin. Not underrated but close.
Overpriced: All dates and mint marks that have been extensively hoarded over the past 35+ years. This means virtually all "key" and "semi-key" dates in all series. The extent of this type of hoarding is underestimated by many/most collectors.
Underpriced: In the US series, virtually nothing. The market is, large, mature and extensively covered on the internet. This site is an excellent example of an excellent information source.
I would love for an AG or G '01-S quarter to recede to that level, so I can purchase an example and fill the hole. I agree for a long while now, in low grade it is far overpriced relative to its difficulty. Of course, in anything VF or finer, it's a rare beast, but that is not what I'm after.
Over priced - The 1937-D three legged Buffalo Nickel. When I was a dealer it was always available in sharp condition for little over $1,000. There is nothing rare about it, but if you could find one at Gray Sheet bid, you could turn it very quickly for a $100 mark-up. It's was not a big score, but it was very easy and quick.
The 1937-D three legged Buff is common... It benefits from its legendary status and semi- cult like following and it is easy to promote.
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Overpriced: US coins.
Overpriced: https://usmint.gov/
Over: 1909s VDB
Under: Sac Goodacre Presentation
If you mean overrated to mean that marketing has caused an irregularity in the supply and demand ratio, then there is many.
Part most people will have a hard time digesting is mostly common stuff is the popular stuff as that is what dealers had to sell.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
ms70 modern cr**
overpriced - whatever Bill Jones is not buying.
underpriced - Bill Jones' want list.
There are many examples, here's a few:
21S walker is overpriced in F-VF.....this coin is extremely common.
The same coin is appropriately priced in XF-AU, where it is far rarer.
Like the 37D three legger, I always thought the 1857 large cent was overpriced and readily available in VF/XF/low AU. But it's always popular, and back in the day when I was doing more dealing, when you could find one near sheet, it was easy profitable flip. This coin seems to fairly scarce in MS with true original red.
1893-S Dollar. I heard a conversation at a recent show about how a guy was trying to put together a full bag 0f 1000. They said that he had over 800!
1916 SLQ. Readily available in all grades imaginable.
So called "better date" Liberty Nickels in MS 66. The 1885, 1886, 11906, 1912 D, 1912 S.
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Overpriced: 1867WR proof shield nickel - there are more of these than most sources indicate.
Underpriced: 1867NR prototype reverse proof shield nickel - there are very few of these, and they should fetch what the 1867WR fetches, but they're not close to that.
http://www.shieldnickels.net
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11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
overpriced: 1856 pattern flying eagle cent.....~2,000 minted selling at $10,000+ in proof
underpriced: 1858 pattern indian cent.......~400 minted selling at $1,500 in proof
If you look at the estimated surviving populations for the top five coins in the U.S. Type set, all of them are rarer than any of the "name," key coin rarities. These five coins are key coins in their own right and are all very expensive, but it puts the rarity of the popular key dates into perspective.
Here is the list:
1796 No Stars Quarter Eagle, est.125 pieces
1808 Quarter Eagle, set. 150 pieces
1796-7 Half Dollar
1821-7 Quarter Eagle
1829-34 Large Size Capped Bust Half Eagle
Overpriced.... Whatever coin I am seeking at the time......
I see people getting great prices on a coin and think, that is a nice one to have in my collection.... start looking and SHAZAM!! Prices take an elevator to the top. Oh well... maybe if I stop looking for a while.... and sneeeeeeeaaaaak up on one... I can get it for a reasonable price... 
Cheers, RickO
This!
I would also add that there is no reason other than hole filling for a collector to throw a 1916-D dime or S-VDB cent into their collection. Except for the date, they look exactly like every other coin in the series. Nothing is more glaring than an AG 16-D dime in an otherwise nice looking VF or better Merc set. If type collecting becomes the norm rather than date/mintmark series collecting, the keys and semi-keys are going to crash in price.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Like my DA buddy says ricko toss enough crap on the wall and some will stick... Just keep bidding and you will get one.
Hoard the keys.
Logically, then, there's no point in getting excited about any rare cc date, when there's often a cc of the same type commonly available. We can soon get 1933 eagles at a cheap price, because the 26's and 32's look identical. Ditto any rare seated liberty dates, I'm surprised people still care to flip them over to check for mintmarks! This sure is gonna be interesting!
Absolutely agree! You could fill a shopping cart with them....
Yet 1927-S and 1928-S, at a fraction of the price, are much more difficult to find in the same grades.
"The Market" isn't as efficient as we sometimes believe.....
Illogical response. You can't get 1933 eagles at a cheap price because there aren't any available.
You also completely miss the point. The only reason anyone cares about a "rare cc date" is because they feel the need to fill a hole in an album. The advantage to type collecting is that you never need a rare anything because you only want the best possible representative example of that design type. While the "rare cc date" will still carry a premium over a common date, there WILL BE LITTLE DEMAND and the price will drop accordingly.
If you'd like a really good example of that consider the following: platinum eagles. Many of the dates are RARER than many of your "rare cc" coins, yet they barely trade above bullion. Why? Few people collect them by date.
You want another example: 1870-CC Half dollar it's a thousand $ coin even in good. Mintage: 54, 617. 1936 Columbia South Carolina $1/2. Price $250 in MS-66. Total mintage: 9,000.
"rare" isn't the issue. It's scarcity relative to demand. And if people stop collecting series by date/mint mark, the demand might well drop below supply for many of those rare dates that aren't really that rare.
There are numerous examples in the world coin or ancient coin market. Scarcer coins get a premium but the price relative to fairly mundane common U.S. coins is minuscule because of lack of demand.
RARE 1870 CC Half dollar (54,000). 2008 $25 platinum proof - mintage 4,153. 2004 $25 proof - mintage 5193. And while your 1870-CC half dollar MAY have a low enough survival rate to be "rarer" than the proofs, I guarantee there are more 1916-D dimes and 1909-SVDB cents than platinum proofs but the price does NOT reflect the rarity. Price reflects rarity RELATIVE TO DEMAND.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.
Overpriced: 1815 bust half
Underpriced: 1802 bust half
Each of these dates only has one variety, so can't blame the Overton guys. Just a different demand for the capped bust coins. Many collectors skip the draped bust since the 1796-7 are prohibitively expensive.
One jewelry shop lady was trotting out some rare coins from her late husband, a 1913-s quarter that was vg or better with funky surfaces. It seems that dealers try to fish for high prices on raw material but are willing to sell the certified within reasonable parameters. Try injecting reason into why a "rare" coin is not worth a high price tag.
For the Walker series I used to think that the 1916 S and the 1918 S were tough in better/MS grades but the market is saturated with them.
But The 1920 D & S are really tough imho.
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My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Coins are worth what people are willing to pay. If there are no takers the price is too high.
President, Racine Numismatic Society 2013-2014; Variety Resource Dimes; See 6/8/12 CDN for my article on Winged Liberty Dimes; Ebay
Want to know whats rare ? Pick a coin and a date and the grade u want it in and see if you can find one online. You can also use add ons like only pcgs and/or cac. There are plenty of coins that i want but they just arent out there
Thanks for agreeing with my tongue in cheek post. I assume you know I mean the 1933 $10 piece when I say eagle - there most certainly are some out there, though as to availability I guess that would depend on what you're willing to pay. As you point out so helpfully, absolute rarity does not determine price, availability and demand does. Right now several keys are in a swoon due to overall lack of demand, but I highly doubt they'll ever be as cheap as you envision; nor will date and mintmark collecting soon go out of style.
Overpriced: 1916 d Merc dime in ag - good
Underpriced: Problem free earlier date 1793-1807 large cent sin VF
I'm not predicting the demise of date/mintmark collecting. I was just pointing out that it creates more demand and, if it were to wane, the price of "keys" would swoon.
All comments reflect the opinion of the author, even when irrefutably accurate.