Legend Coin Market Report – Mid-September Report....***UPDATED: Mid-September Report 2***
Goldbully
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By Laura Sperber – Legend Numismatics ……
SHOWS NOT NEEDED
Not really, but it’s nice to have no pressure to travel and worry about being here and there, getting first shot, and of course the headache of security. At least at home we have regular human hours and even get a few surprise calls with some neat coins being offered. As of this writing we are working on buying a major world-class rarity in our offices. With no pressure from being at show, we know no one’s looking over our shoulders so hopefully we can get a much better deal.
We used to say that things were changing at shows. Now, we are convinced things HAVE changed at shows. It is our strong opinion–based on OUR performance–that the new show pecking order is FUN, ANA (depending on the city), ALL PCGS Invitationals (go to one, there is nothing else like them), ALL Baltimore, ALL Long Beaches, and then Central States. Central States has become nothing more then a smaller regional show, which, for the first time ever, we are thinking of skipping. Our sales to collectors at all of these shows have dipped to LESS than $250,000 in a year! We knew that when eBay became a monster trading platform shows were doomed. Now that millennials are looking at coins, they will probably never attend a live show–these are, after all, people who prefer to text someone in a house versus ring their door bell.
(con't in link)
http://coinweek.com/opinion/market-reports/legend-coin-market-report-mid-september/
Comments
I read that with great interest when she posted it over the weekend.
Doug Winter wrote recently that he was about to publish a blog making the same argument.
I completely understand their point. That said, I love walking a bourse floor because I don't make a living selling coins.
I always enjoy Laura's blog.....she makes some excellent points. Sure wish she would come back to the forum. Cheers, RickO
Wondering again if this is just another break between the "high end" and the "basic collector coin" markets?
It seems to me that there are a LOT of dealers in the low to mid-grade market who live off of coin shows. Not just the "big" ones, either. Also the tiny monthly/quarterly, hotel meeting room, shows.
I LOVE a coin show! All of the time spent looking at pictures, and trying to imagine the coin in hand is MUCH less satisfying than looking at them in person....
If the big ticket items "don't move" at coin shows, I certainly understand her position. I'd just hate to extend that attitude to the entire marketplace.
Laura is dealing in a six-figure world. Most of us peons love attending shows.
Check out my iPhone app SlabReader!
While I am not in a position to dispute this, I hope she is wrong. I enjoy coin shows and there is simply nothing like seeing a coin in-hand and either buying it or walking away.
Tom
Interesting that DWN is seeing the same thing. I wonder what other dealers are seeing. It would be great to hear more experiences.
Maybe younger collectors are not stopping by their table since they have very few coins priced under $10,000? I have looked at their website before and seeing them at Central States I knew it would be a waste of everyone's time if I stopped. From the show report I wrote and others I have read Central States seemed like a success for us average collectors.
Wow! Has Central States really slipped that much? I have only been to one Central States show in my life, about 12 years ago. It was quite large with all of the "usual players" there.
As for the rest of her list, which includes the big FUN and ANA shows plus Baltimore and Long Beach, that covers a lot of the shows that most of the major dealers have attended in the past. If they went to a regional show, it was one that was local where the travel expenses are within reason.
I just did a quick scan of the last inventory list and I would guesstimate that a full 2/3 (if not 3/4) are priced under $10k.
She doesn't have to sugar-coat it.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
A lot of the smaller coin shows have been suffering from smaller crowds and lower sales.
I think the only reason coin shows still exist is that coins (and stamps) are old man hobbies and we older folks grew up in a hands on world. I teach college and my students don't interface with the world in the same way we did. They grew up digital and random access. They have never owned a watch, may not carry a wallet, are far more confident making electronic transactions than many of the older folks.
I never wore a watch until I was in my 20s. Makes me wonder how I knew when to go to classes.
I see she has an editor when posting on Coin Week.
I find her persuasive about show quality over quantity. As a collector though, there is nothing better than wallowing among coins for a couple of days.
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
Shows indeed have tremendous social value for collectors, plus the only way to look at a lot of coins at once is to go to a show. Most of us can go to a show without buying anything and have a good time. But if the coins aren't selling, the dealers won't attend, and the shows will dry up. Simple as that.
The selection at the shows I've atteneded in 2017 has been disappointing. There really is not much to buy, and what there is has a "picked over" look. Even the coins dealers offer to me on the Internet are disappointing. Of late it has been over graded and over priced.
The shows that I attend in order of importance are ANA, FUN, CSNS and BRNA. Long Beach is way too far and I don't want to go to Baltimore.
What a great article!
AS far as buying from auction prices, if there has not been a coin sold for a year or more or the last 5 were junk, how does one arrive at the current market price for a really nice coin?
I didn't bother attending the last Long Beach show for reasons Bill Jones mentioned. I'll have to disagree with Laura re one thing. You have to see the coin unless it is a trivial purchase for you. You are buying sight unseen if you are buying from an image. Especially toned coins. If you want to buy coins like this, you will be underwater very quickly.
Also, the best material isn't necessarily going to come to Legend. Legend must come to see the best material as well. Those in the deep end of the pool know who the players are and what they will do to get the expensive coins.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
I always had strong sales at Central States shows.
Doesn't mean much, I know, as I don't sell $10,000 coins but thought I'd throw it out there.
If Legend starts to skip some of these shows, my guess is someone will come along and start to slowly chip away at their market share who is willing to meet the customers face to face at all the big shows. If you aren't present, you aren't as relevant. Sometimes in sales it isn't whether you made the sale, it is the relationship that counts and the sale comes later. I have built some great relationships with dealers at shows and did not end up buying anything till later over the internet using email mainly. I never would have bought from these dealers had I not initially met them at a show and struck up a conversation. I still have business cards from dealers all over the country I have met at shows over the years who I liked. I have done repeat business with many over the internet but I still would expect them to make it to the major shows. Their presence speaks volumes to me.
I never would have met Sheridan Downey, Rich Uhrich, Larry Briggs, Harry Labstain, Dick Osburn, Brad Karoleff, Brian Greer or Ray and Phil Hinkelman among others. Heck, I used Great Collections to auction some coins just because of the conversations I had with Ian at a few shows years ago. After meeting these folks face to face, I was much more inclined to spend my hard earned money buying coins from them.
Maybe I am a dinosaur but I think human interaction is still used in business today to build trust, rapport, and relationships.
Huh, I didn't know earth's population was a good fraction of a trillion. =P. Huge population explosion must have just taken place.
Sorry for the rant which I think is sort of related to her point about coin show decline but sort of tangential to her market... And keep in mind that this is the perspective of a relatively young numismatist so it may not be 100% correct.
I don't blame people (especially young people) for going to shows less even though they are cool experiences. It's really hard to find a specific coin in a low 3-figure price range at a show - despite there being 1000s and 1000s of coins. Yet I can go online and see multiple listed for sale at any given time. Most coins that dealers seem to bring that are in slabs are all what most people (at least young people) would consider expensive. Ok not all of them are - but it seems like a large fraction are high 3 figure to 4 figure ++ based on my naivity. Most booths where I stopped to look at coins I was interested in at the last Long Beach show were asking top dollar slab prices (You know, PCGS Price guide +) for not top dollar slabbed coins and nearly that even for raw coins for anything better than a common date. Yet I can go and look at past sales and see that the asking price is 25% higher or more than comparable sales. And on top of that, I only saw 1 dealer at the last long beach with any sort of a junk bin of cheapy slabs. I couldn't find a single 1992 S PR69DCAM (or 70) $0.50 at the last long beach show. The one guy with the junk bin's prices were like double what I could get the same thing for online. I bought nothing at the last show because no one had exactly what I was looking for - hard to believe that at a coin show as big as Long Beach, I couldn't find some things.
Ok rant over...
It's my own opinion that the price point of coins at shows really isn't palpable to someone entering the hobby despite the fact that a show is a good way to introduce someone to the hobby or keep someone in it. Double edge sword so to speak. Maybe I'm crazy but it seems like most dealers bring their expensive inventory to the shows because bigger sales justify going, which is a reasonable position to take.
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
I spoke with a dealer who went to two in state shows last weekend, he did not do much in business. The only bright spot seemed to be a NY teacher who has been buying collections and has fresh material. But his only buyers are wholesale dealers, he is a newbie to selling it gives him a chance to feel like a big shot, but he could get more online.
Dealers have to do both online and show activity, but many of the show guys do little online. I refuse to drive all those miles to check out material with it usually being on Sunday and I get tempted to buy stuff I don't need.
Are shows on the national circuit really intended as venues for entry level price points? I don't think so. The local show at the VFW will have plenty of coins available at lower price points.
That's a good question. Are they? I would think that a national level coin show would have something for everyone. Not just something for the high end collector. Maybe that is my young naivety. VFW?
Successful transactions with: wondercoin, Tetromibi, PerryHall, PlatinumDuck, JohnMaben/Pegasus Coin & Jewelry, CoinFlip, and coinlieutenant.
I had a phenomenal CSNS, with well over $1 million in sales at the show, including a somewhat complicated trade deal started there and completed in the two weeks following the event. Laura and Doug are generally correct; however, deals still happen at shows that wouldn't ordinarily take place. The internet is an incredible tool, and has become a great place to sell coins, but there is still something to be said for real, face-to-face business.
What is now proved was once only imagined. - William Blake
Note to self - don't offer coins to Legend at their office.
VFW=Veterans of Foreign Wars
National shows generally do NOT carry lower price point coins because the bourse fees are MUCH MUCH higher than your local coin show. They can't afford to pay their costs selling $10 coins over the table and they don't want to invest in table space to stock such cheap items.
I've been to two major shows in the past year. I found two coins to buy at the first show and zero at the second. I've decided if you are looking for something rare and specific, coin shows will mostly be a waste of your time. On the other hand, if your interests are wide ranging or if you are looking for common stuff, you'll likely find a coin show to be an extremely efficient way of finding nice coins.
On a related note, it seems to me that a large fraction of the business at coin shows is now wholesale. As a collector it is frustrating to walk up to a table with promising material and be ignored while the dealer and wholesaler are knee deep in double row boxes. I'd say that happens about 25% of the time now. Maybe shows will evolve into wholesale only events and retail won't need to be part of the show anymore.
LIBERTY SEATED DIMES WITH MAJOR VARIETIES CIRCULATION STRIKES (1837-1891) digital album
I hate it when I see behind the curtain like that. Saw another example with someone else recently. They said a little too much.
It's worth noting that Toys 'R' Us filed for bankruptcy protection today, due primarily to Amazon's market dominance.
Perhaps this is NOT a great metaphor, but it is certainly worth considering.
[Edited to add 'NOT", which changes the meaning of my message by a lot!]
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
That perspective is from the dealer side. From a collector perspective, at least in my world, I need the coin shows. From a buying opportunity, most come from the auctions associated with the coin shows. The real value, however, is in the exposure to so many coins in one place to hold and grade in hand. I'll spend two days at a show viewing auction lots, and another day on the floor viewing coins. I need to know how they will grade before I can buy.
You can't learn how to grade coins by viewing pictures on the internet. If I were a dealer, I would want my clients to be knowledgeable in what they do. They can't if all they do is stare at a computer screen.
Times are changing, and yet there is a ton of worthless images being used on eBay and dealer sites. I feel like calling them out just so they stop. I have to think better images equate with better sales.
I consider Central States a larger regional show for the area. What's larger unless the ANA is held in the area? However I did notice some dealers didn't attend last year as in previous years. Hopefully others will see the show as a success.
Online competition has dampened show sales for sometime.
I have shifted to pricing coins at shows generally lower than my online to move them. Many priced at cost or bid plus 10 pct.
Even then it takes people walking in the door who have money wanting to buy.
Bullion dealers on narrow spreads doing well. One set up next to me sold 30 AGB alone - I would think even on his narrow spread he made enough to offset the $250 table fee. People who have scraped up enough to buy a one ounce gold coin looking for PCGS MS69 AGB or AGE close to melt.
Coins and other old collectables, where condition is of great importance, are not like new toys. It is best to purchase such items when one has a chance to examine them in person.
Images that make the seller look good are part of the game. It's hard to sell a crapy coin at good price when you tell the truth about it. Look at the write-ups that appear for problem coins in auctions. Although the problem is noted on the holder, the amount of space dedicated to explaining the problem is little more than a footnote in an otherwise glowing description about how desirable the item is. Sometimes the auction writers make it sound like the flag for the problem is undeserved.
Photos are no different. Pictures are often taken at the best angle, often with under or over exposures to cover up the problems. Some of the worst photography on the web is practiced by those who are selling counterfeits.
Time to go back to the thrilling days of yesteryear and the shows full of art bars.
Well the change won't occur until the major players publish their schedules omitting the shows they believe are no longer worth attending. Let's see action rather than talk.
Lets have on online "whist" with Bill Jones 5 dollar gold coin and Legends 5 dollar gold coin...Love to see them both!
I am sure that he sold his coin a long time ago. The two coins were very similar with respect to preservation.
Here is my reasoning on preferring not to go to shows. I have gone to shows in the past and had a good time, but this is my reality as an active 52 year old collector. Let's take the Central States show which I most recently attended.
I'm going to have to use at least one vacation day, if not two, to attend because I don't want to get up early enough in Central Ohio to drive 7-8 hours to be there when the show opens and arrive exhausted to find that all those who attended earlier have already cleaned out any coins I might have wanted.
I will have spent two of the days that were my weekend or vacation time sitting in a car for 7-8 hours each way dealing with bad roads, bad drivers, bad weather, and toll after toll. I'm going to pay for a hotel room for two nights and put a total of 700 miles on my car. Will also have to pay for at least two meals a day.
If I want to go, I want to bring cash. I bank online out of Texas. So try taking $5000 cash to a show when you have to get it all through multiple ATM transactions and it is all in 20's. Not only a PITA but risky. If I want to get some of my collection photographed or sell some coins, then I have a back pack full of clanky blue boxes that screams 'Hey, come mug me or rob my hotel room while I eat.'
I have specific things that I am looking for and they don't show up too often, so I may go and find nothing, or very little. I have to wait in line to register or I have to pay a fee to get in early and see things before they get picked over. Then I often have to stand around for ages and ages while chummy collectors and dealers chat with each other before the dealer even recognizes that I want to sit down and look stuff over and the collector realizes he has been occupying a seat for an hour while potential customers get frustrated and walk away.
Then you get the look up and down from the dealers that don't know you so they can judge you. I show up in sweats and an old shirt and dirty sneakers because I want to be comfortable and pack as little as possible. Frequently dealers act as if it is an imposition to assist me and I am guessing they think I have no money to spend. So I get up and walk to another dealer because life is too short.
Alternatively, I can sit at my desk with a nice glass of Macallan and cruise ebay with my set searches. Then roll through the websites that I have saved as favorites. I have spent many years looking at images and have gotten good and understanding what a photo is showing that isn't there, and what a photo is showing that is there. So I find something I like. I click a butten and it is mine. I click another button and it is paid for and part, or all, of the cost is covered by funds I DIDN'T spend on gas, restaurant food, lodging, tolls, and entry fees. When the coin arrives I look it over. If it isn't what I wanted, I click a button, print out a mailing label and send it back. In 10 days, I have my money back.
No driving, no tolls, no road rage, no accidents, no bad hotel tv's, no restaurant prices for food, no entry fees, no being stereotyped, waiting for a seat, no wear and tear on the car, two days of vacation saved for things more fun than interstate driving. I think many think the same way I do. With the advances in videoconferencing, even classes and seminars on numismatics might be achievable over the web. If there were a major show in town, I would surely go. Otherwise, not so appealing anymore.
For those who think that one could never find anything worthwhile at the major shows, here are a few coins I have purchased "over the counter" at shows like FUN, Baltimore and even an EAC convention.
This group barely scratches the surface, but maybe times are changing and the good to great coins will not be offered at shows any more. That's hard to believe given the high costs associated with the major auctions these days.
Not even Pcgs let alone CAC. Sigh
The main reason I go to a show is for onsite grading of my higher end coins. While there, I look around and buy, selling once in a while. The roasting I took on grades will keep me from going back more than anything else! I am not alone.
Unfortunately "Coin Facts" does not have a picture of a 1907-D half eagle in MS-65. The closest they have is an MS-64+. Here are a couple of others in PCGS MS-65. The Legand offering was similar to these pieces with small marks in the fields.
Why post puke gold here ? That's terrible. LOL
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
"Now that millennials are looking at coins, they will probably never attend a live show–these are, after all, people who prefer to text someone in a house versus ring their door bell."
Yikes. I'm a 19 year old dealer. I get so excited for shows I literally have trouble falling asleep the night before. Before shows me and a bunch of buddies (early teens - late twenties typically) all discuss who's going to what shows and when, we hangout, talk & buy/sell coins.
Those dastardly millenials might be a little more eager to attend shows if the dealers managed to get the rock out of their shoe for young people.
Virtually every single YN I know (hundreds) LOVES attending coin shows, and most of them despise eBay.
I normally love Laura's work but that claim was abysmally wrong.
The most shocking thing about all of this is that a Pcgs/CAC gem was only 30% more than non CAC Ngc.
I was thinking the same. There is generally a 20- 30% CAC premium alone on this type. This is a case where the more expensive purchase maybe the better deal in the end.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Although not unanimous among demographers, the vast majority agree that the last millennials were born around 1996, give or take a year.
At 19, you're leading edge "iGen" or "GenZ", not millennial. So, you have that going for you...