DEALING with the current coin crapout. MY thinking.
topstuf
Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭
Go through your boxes and take every coin you don't LINGER with when looking at the collection.
then...... LIQUIDATE .... them.
Yep, sellem for whatever they bring. That IS the market.
I did that in March of 2016 while Russ (at Resco) was still alive.
I don't regret selling ANY of those coins. They didn't interest ME anymore.
I use Great Collections for higher end stuff.
It would help if the eBay sellers could figure out that capital has a cost and do the same. Sure, they'd LOSE on some coins. Maybe ALL of them.
But, you gotta take it like bullion. I consider my bullion a savings account but FAR more LIQUID than the numismatic coins. I know every day what the bullion will bring and I don't cry ...(TOO LOUDLY)... when it goes down.
It's a long term spec and that's just the way it is.
My PRESENT collection is, as BillJones noted in another post, an ENTERTAINMENT EXPENSE! I don't have room to collect cars so coins are my thing.
So..... (I better "wrap" this).... LIQUIDATE what doesn't excite you.
Use your proceeds to get something that does.
My take is that the "market" is in transition toward actual rarity (again)
And so, off my soapbox now. Take it away......
Comments
If I did that,my collection would decrease about 90%. Only have a handful that excite me . Most are just "interesting" like this 94 cent
... Do need to weed out a bunch that I've lost interest in.... 
It depends on your goals.
From a dispassionate investment point of view, that may or may not be good advice. If we're in a new era of a perpetual market slide it's great advice. If we're in a trough of a typical market cycle it's possibly bad advice.
Give me a time machine & I'll come back and let you know what to do.
If you're a passionate collector, occasionally weeding out the junk is sound advice.
Excellent advice that I suspect few will pay attention to.
I'm saying sell the so-so and transfer the funds into blue chip. NOT stop collecting.
But..... ?????
I am not ready sell because I enjoy this hobby too much, but I am ready to pull in my horns.
This market sucks, plain and simple. You have to over pay for everything you buy that is even remotely graded properly. The dealers are paying nothing for material, and that shows at the bourse tables because they mostly have over graded stuff and widgets to sell. You can't go to the shows and find decent material any more. From what I can see auctions are the only way to liquidate your collection if you are going to have a chance to get decent prices.
I believe almost everything is going to crash and reset. Suppose "they" even demonetize cash and force a conversion to something else.
Then "they" should be what is liquidated.
Have we had a similar "market" to this one in the past? Maybe @roadrunner would know.. And what happened to get us out of it? I personally think when precious metal prices are going up, and staying up that the collector coin market improves..
"They" influence the world - even more than PCGS and CAC effect the coin market. Are you aware of what some governments ("THEY" in this case) are doing with their currency?
Absolutely.
https://www.ft.com/content/890a4262-c795-11e6-8f29-9445cac8966f?mhq5j=e1
https://www.ft.com/content/cb0670ae-2411-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16?mhq5j=e1
and more.
People who think Bitcoin is the answer will get a surprise.
I still don't understand Bitcoin and that is likely for the better... If I had Bitcoin, I suspect it would soon become Itty Bitty Bitcon
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Let me help.
Now it makes sense.
Have a Great Day!
Louis
Topstuff... I thought that was the help I asked for with my income tax...
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I guess what I'm saying is that unless you have virtually unlimited access to material and a huge pools of ready buyers, exchanging one coin for another typically involves a 20-30% financial hit in the transaction cost. This will be in addition to whatever hit you took by buying during a strong market and selling in a weak market.
It might be better to hold everything until the market strengthens, but maximizing your "investment" (or minimizing your loss) depends on which way the winds blow in a speculative market.
Weeding out dreck to replace it with quality is generally good collector advice irrespective of prevailing market conditions. Of course, buying the right coins the first time is even better.
One thing I know for sure is that it's easier to "learn the ropes" in a strong market. A few mistakes are covered up by the rising tide and all the while it's still fun to buy, sell, learn, and experiment a bit. Today, a little more prudence is wise.
Russ is dead?
Yes, sadly.
Coin Rarities Online
I envision myself wandering around the post-apocalyptic wasteland with a sawed off shotgun and a backpack full of PCGS blue boxes with 1790s United States coins.
I'm steadily moving towards the box of 20 (or fewer) concept.
I think this is a ploy to get everyone to sell coins in the down market, so he can buy them up cheap... lol
Yes sir, cancer.
There is also an opportunity cost when holding on to stagnant holdings/inventory.
Sorry but I enjoy having lots of coins, even though the sets I completed years ago may no longer thrill me and they sit for years in the SDB. It's nice knowing they are there and it's fun to pull them out once in a while and rediscover them.
I said before its a market of coins not a coin market. The very rare coins in high grade will always do well over the long haul. You are correct about the cost of capital associated with owning many coins. 99.9% of the coins are not collectible if you want liquidity and appreciation.
It is like the market of stocks in that you buy quality and hold on to it unless it has a tremendous run and at that point put a stop loss on it, protecting your profit. A material change in the company fundamentals is also a sell now mandate but you cannot see it coming unless the insiders (management and institutional investors selling) as they do have and act on inside information. I was in corporate banking and can tell you with complete certainty it happens often. Coin prices seem to be driven by the level of consumer confidence and the direction of the stock market.
No one can tell you what any market will do in six months. No body!
I like my old broken Timex wind up watch that it is broken. It is always right twice a day.
I Do Not disagree with your point regarding selling the generic and low grade material as they are dead assets and I feel you are right in the bulls eye.
While in high school and the first couple of years on college I had assembled a set of Mers and Buffaols. The only ones that performed well were the rare ones i.e. 18/17D Buffalo and 16 D Merc. Both were XF and cost me $525 and $200 dollars respectively. A strong three leg Buffalo was $50.
I personally like stocks that pay me to own them in the form of a dividend and price appreciation over time. This asset class the only one that has returned about 10.2% p.a, over the last 50 years.
As far as bonds (good only for getting out of jail) and CDs (certificates of depreciation they are SURE losers. I was a banker more far too many years and the definition of a CD is what they refereed to by the retail department that sells them.
My investments are 80% cash in stocks, 10% in cash and 10% in a few rare coins. I have not regretted this and stick to this allocation no matter what the "soothsayers sat or write as my broken watch is worth more than their forecast.
I like to use the rule of 72. 72 divided by 10 is 7.2 telling you your money will double every 7.2 years, assuming you reinvest all dividends id paid. the 10 is the percentage return. Take the price of a 1794 silver dollar in VF and see how much it has risen in price since 1960. Then use the rule of 72 to figure out just what the asset like coin has returned to the owner. It won't equate the S&P but you have to enjoy what you work for even if its only a 8% p.a. asset. In 40 years I will hopefully be long gone and can now enjoy owning a few nice coins. I consider the enjoyment as part of the return.
Happy 4th to all.
I like my type set, for the one of everything approach.
But it is hard to give up on my 1859 mint set, or my Ikes, or my Ike Errors, or those coins with the look!
Boy, I must have been really unclear in my OP.
Boy, I must have been really unclear in my OP.
not from MyLoftyPerch.
I think that any collector who allows his collection to just sit for years without perusal is in store for a surprise some day, but we are a funny breed. guys that will watch a widget go up in price will usually sell and talk about their windfall: the same person will remain ignorant of a decline in price and then hold so they don't take a loss. it makes no sense. I typically "inventory" at least once a year and did as you mentioned, selling off stuff last year with more waiting in a box till I can haul it into work to unload.
$40.13
That is the monthly carrying cost of ALL my toys, from my helter skelter mis mash of coins, my car collection, including my Big Boy Toy, a 1968 Shelby GT 500, and a couple other collections of stuff.
That is the premium on a life insurance policy that far exceeds the value of all my stuff, so that if a jet engine falls on me whilst I am ambling down the street, my widow does not have to worry about getting every last dime of value out of my stuff. Each of my children has been assigned and quasi trained on how to determine what is wheat and what is chaff in my stuff, but again, if they make a mistake, that is what the policy is for.
Yes, topstuf you have to be really clear, don't do as I did and say the "hobby is too expensive" and allude to anything as I did. Dealer margins are too big. Why because they have to be and why, because the market "coins" is in meltdown, except for Pogue and uber expensive stuff. Believe me this "market" is resetting again and when it does it becomes too expensive. A hit on a coin sold now is minimum 20- 30% (as said above.) for the general pubic collector. When people feel like they are wasting their money they move towards more experiential things family, vacations, cars, boats and quality of life stuff.
PCGS and NGC were suppose to correct the "market" for over graded "stuff" , but grade inflation has taken a toll with the occasion burn. I for one paid $650 for a coin in a major coin dealers auction EF 40 (TPG holder top company) I got a burnished coin at full retail , obvious to me in hand, but not in the online photo. Trust in market once again for me, takes a hit. Sold coin immediately for a $300 loss. Time does not have a way of bailing us out , we don' t have forever. The smart money has been in Stocks/ cash/ coins in that order as mentioned above.
I had the best of times in the 1994 to 2006 coin market good stuff was still available at reasonable prices for me. (budget up to $10K at that time) So, save the hamburger analogy. Besides, the family and I went on many vacations and many of them had an historical significance , as well as, cultural one. Cornish NH to Vt to Savannah to Burnsides Bridge, Shenandoah, to Hyde Park to just about anywhere mention in my coin library as being significant to my hobby and history. It was great fun in Harpers Ferry and Fort Sumpter. This is the pay off in our hobby. The money value equation is keeping the millennials, my children, on the side lines. They live in expensive "Sustainable Infrastructure cities" where they eschew suburbs, automobiles and have great jobs that and walk to get any needs.
This is MY HUMBLE OPINION your results may differ please refrain from flaming me for having an OPINION
I have collected, bought and sold for over 40 years since sixth grade. I read more than I buy. Thank you for the great tip on a good book $89. on Early Quarters by R R Rea and company.
Again, these are not typical results, results may vary according to market conditions this is not a solicitation to be flamed or representative of my whole life story of great fun with United States coins. Sol.
You cannot disengage coin values, "what's it worth" with coin collecting. Period . Thank you Sol
I did indent in my above posting, so sorry, it didn't take when posted. Regards, Sol
Well... isn't this thread just a bucket of joy and happiness. I am a coin collector...I enjoy my coins... I do not worry about the market since I do not sell coins. I am not worried about what happens when I expire....My kids are all doing well...my wife is beautiful, capable and comfortable. Oh look... there are some coins I got 45 years ago,....what are they worth? I have no idea... I could look it up though - if I cared. I don't. Cheers, RickO
I think your advice is good advice regardless of the direction the coin market is going.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
Thanks ricko - glad to see I'm not the only one!
Hey Ricko , I don't think the point of this discussion was whether or not you cared, how wealthy you are or aren't, your constant devil may care attitude about your real or imagined coin collection. It was based in the reality most people face when making choices about the "hobby" Your statement about "there are some coins I got 45 years ago.......what are they worth? I have no idea.. I could *( which you cannot by the way) look it up though-if I cared. I don't " exudes a certain priggish behavior not all of us have the luxury of imparting.
Opportunity costs are probably one of the most underestimated negatives for small businesses that refuse to quickly turn over their merchandise. Small coin dealers are an excellent example of this. Think of how many Sunday bourse dealers have stock that is so stale that they end up dying with it. (This is not a joke ... I can think of several in my own area.)
Even though I've heard the message before it seems you've really struck a chord with me this time @topstuf . Thanks.
Just dawning on me about how much more enjoyable my collection would be if I would simply purge all the coins that I never give a second thought and use that to chase some dreams.
A real case of being in the woods and not seeing the trees.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
B-I-N-G-O
All I did was go through my boxes and make a mental note of the coins I only went "hmmm..ok" on and slipped back into the slot.
THEN...it dawned on me that I was not enjoying ...THOSE.. coins.
I just "had em." Whee....
What I did not mercilessly "OFF" through Russ and subsequent Great Collections auctions on "pricier" pieces that failed my INTEREST test, I still have.
I enjoy looking at the coins I kept which are ...mostly... early stuff.
I am fascinated by the designs of the early United States. Always will be and I don't GAS ...what..those are "worth."
They please ME.
So also do...some...foreign coins that I pick for the design..
That's ....all.... I intended to convey in this thread.
In short, I will not go without my coin hobby. I also CHOOSE not to have humdrum coins.
Being cold and analytical, it all makes sense. Back when I quit collecting I was in my late 40's and did my own poll on collector ages and figured out I was in the bottom 25% according to age! So I sold my stuff and started collecting comic books more heavily. Glad I did, as some of my coins that I didn't sell off dropped in value/price.
At that time, the market had the initial stages of stratification like baseball cards did. Too much material and not enough collectors collapsed the market EXCEPT for the top end. So the trick was to move to the top end material, which is what happened. And that's why collecting went from nice coins to great coins, to slabbed coins, to stickered coins to being really knit picky about how a MS67 seated dime looks (perhaps to survive whatever stratification is next).
But here's some good news. Since my coin collecting bug has been rekindled, I signed up to some coin forums on facebook and I'm seeing more young people involved. Social media may be our saving grace. More noobs there than I'm used to seeing. And a lot of them seem really fixated on finding minor errors and what they can sell them for. My guess is that they are the egg that a Phoenix will rise from, and you'll see it happening with raw coins. I think if you follow the active areas of the raw market, they can be used to predict the future trends of the hobby.
My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
Coins topping phase for several years .. a reason for the dash of crackouts, resubmittals ... does not bode well for coin prices ,.....once economy enters a recession
Coin club ,after collecting many coins, currency off the 2007 - 2009 bottom.. have been sellers since 2013
I did what the OP suggested about 6 years ago, but it was more due to economy than me wanting to divest myself of non eye appealing coins. I had just moved to an academic track where I work, and post docs make significantly less than project managers. Fast forward five years, and I started collecting again. This is totally a hobby for me. It just so happens to be one that I can liquidate if needed to get cash if I have to. FWIW... the two times I "cashed out" I ended up making money the first time, and breaking even the second time. Now that this is my third time around (at least) I've taken to collecting those coins that I "dwell" on, as the OP suggested. This go around, my work is a bit more stable and I'm approaching 5 years in a faculty position. I'm not in any rush to collect/accumulate. I feel as though I can take my time and get nice looking pieces. As others have indicated, my wife and kids are taken care of by other means if I happen die early. My collection, even when finished, won't be worth princely sums of money...
Successful BST transactions with: SilverEagles92; Ahrensdad; Smitty; GregHansen; Lablade; Mercury10c; copperflopper; whatsup; KISHU1; scrapman1077, crispy, canadanz, smallchange, robkool, Mission16, ranshdow, ibzman350, Fallguy, Collectorcoins, SurfinxHI, jwitten, Walkerguy21D, dsessom.
I like your philosophy and would like downsize but lack guts jet them rip at 98c start bid on the bay because so many I have picked off next 2nuthin where they did.
Modern coins UsMint products were weak and weakness moving to other parts.
Doom and Gloom? B&Ms I see are working harder to their make their buck
Easy money ?? EU ready to cut down , cutout free money ..
Worse, FED raising rates ... but under radar ,they are making plans to trim their 4 $ trillion bond portfolio .....as in Fed selling bonds in open market to reduce free money ..... which equals next what in 12 months ?
I sold all the coins that did not interest me.
Some lost money, many made money.
I put the proceeds into eye appealing error coin inventory.
I am glad I got rid of the coins that I no longer had interest in, and expanded my business at the same time.
I am old enough to have seen multiple market cycles, including many more sector rotations. I was born when there were 48 states so I have seen a little. So what I am saying is enjoy coins as a hobby first then and investment. Real estate , Stocks , collector cars at record high right now. Coins and Bullion will have their peaks again. Patience Grasshopper.
100% Positive BST transactions
Well .. some already have a good idea about next 12 months........ Fed publically announced Selling their bond portfolio ..only after effects are in action, will people realize
I tend to agree 100% with what the OP said. I found that I simply had too much "stuff". Bullion is much easier. I've been distilling everything down for awhile now, and in a few years it should be manageable again.
I thought about selling my Large Cents but every time I take them and look them over, I think that they're too nice to get rid of, for now.
I've been selling all of my extra slabbed stuff except for the actual sets. I've cracked out a bunch of 69s. Too many slabs, and easier to keep track of in 2x2's. My grading is as technical as any tpg anyway.
I knew it would happen.
**jmski52, I don't know how much you have tied up in the large cents but if its not a HUGE amount, then you might reconsider just keeping them if they are original high quality pieces, regardless of grade. That stuff can take a LONG time to compile as you know and once divested, it would difficult to reassemble. **
At this stage, I think ALL else would go before my large cents, including my walkers.....but if jmski52 wants to list his large cents on the BST, well I certainly wouldn't try to talk him out of it
.
I bust out and run a few boxes of the collection from time to time. Fact is, I never really had anything but a core collection. All told a 70 coin Lincoln set all killers, a few possible upgrades but I'm not looking. 4-5 great Morgans, an ms fugio, 4-5 conders, large cents and civil war tokens, one dripping with luster walker.....so under a 100 coins I suppose. Nothing to pare down really and nothing to upgrade to without sidelining tons of money I can think of better things to do with.