The market is in trouble...
Coinstartled
Posts: 10,135 ✭✭✭✭✭
....when throw away bids are successful.
These peaked at $4000. 5174 Minted.
http://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/382568/1997-W-Jackie-Robinson-Gold-5-PCGS-MS-
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Comments
Too specific an instance; and virtually all exist and are perfect. better to ask why anyone would pay $700.
Looks like they've been under $1000 for about two years now. No doubt way down but perhaps more in line with what a MS69 should bring?
$770 with the juice. I don't believe that a $470 premium to melt is significant on a coin of this rarity. But what do I know?
I am not trying to hype the coin (well maybe a bit). Robinson was a significant historical figure and this was the low mintage coin in the series. It is also a holiday weekend and a similar coin sold for $795 on Ebay.
This is a MS69. Was the $4000 peak for a MS70?
I'll double check heritage but I recall the 69's hitting $4000.
Tough to blame this on gradeflation.
As crazy as it sounds many 69s sold for $4k+ in '08 & '09.
A bit longer ago than I thought, VH, but here is one for $4300 in MS69.
https://coins.ha.com/itm/modern-commemoratives/1997-w-g-5-jackie-robinson-gold-five-dollar-ms69-pcgs/a/1110-1702.s?ic4=ListView-ShortDescription-071515
It always looked like to me Jackie had a monocle on his right eye.
I suppose that that could be said of any commemorative. Interest was sure hot a decade ago.
I probably paid as much as $2800 for them to resell.
I sold my PCGS MS69 Jackie Robinson in Dec 2006 for $4500
I remember when Laura was sounding the warning on high price moderns here. She was very prescient.
The Jackie Robinson used to be the key date in the modern US commemorative gold series. Now the National Park commemorative gold coin is the key date to the series and the Robinson is now the runner up.
Worry is the interest you pay on a debt you may not owe.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value---zero."----Voltaire
"Everything you say should be true, but not everything true should be said."----Voltaire
Interesting that the mintage for 1922 Grant Star gold dollars is very similar (5016), the survival rate is about the same (close to 100%), and the typical piece (MS 65) is worth about $1500.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Jackie was barely, barely dethroned but the new National Parks $5 gold peice is such a better looking coin.
Boys Town $5 unc is shaping up to new key unless someone shouts it from the mountain tops like they did last December just before sales ended.
But again, the question is, will anyone care?
This coin has been dragged down by other gold moderns that have come in with lower mintages. Once you lose that status you also lose most of the premium associated with it.
The relative value of the issue was extremely poor at $4000. Not really surprised that prices have crashed
Latin American Collection
Seems that every series has it's own excuse.
But the rarity has not changed. premium over melt has decline by a factor of ten. That should chill the wallet of anyone who has more than a passing interest in the hobby.
The decline of this piece has moved at multiples of the broader market. It represented very poor value at $4,000 and is it really surprising that the prices have normalized to a closer reflection of the relative value with other comparable issues?
Latin American Collection
Modern Mint products are a very poor way to gauge the overall health of the market and strength of the prices. the same could be said for ultra rarities.
the Modern stuff takes a hit every time the frenzy stops after issue and the demand is satisfied. this one is no exception although it took a bit longer to happen. the low mintage and the fact that it was released shortly before the overall market really exploded accounts for why prices were so high. another issue that has suffered along the same lines is the $10 Bimetallic issue. that one was kept afloat by a small mintage and the sheer novelty of the coin. the Jefferson and Kennedy SMS coins have fallen in price.
to my way of thinking a better way to look at market strength is to follow prices of key date coins in mid-collector grades, the moderately expensive coins that average collectors need to complete a set. for those in grades of G-VF/XF the trend hasn't been good for the past five years, dropping steadily with not much demand. isn't it funny how the stock market "adjusts" from time to time but our Hobby is ready to panic when that happens?? we rode the crest of the wave for well over 10 years and now for the past 6-7 we have fallen into the trough.
the OP shouldn't be startled as none of us should.
I find it hard to believe someone would want to pay $700-800 dollars...
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
To me $770 for the Jackie Robinson $5 gold in Uncirculated sounds about right. Since when is a coin with a distribution of 5,174 pieces, and a virtual 100% survival rate, rare? If that's rare, the vast majority of the gold coins my collection are "extremely rare."
This coin was hyped and promoted years ago, and the handwriting for the high prices was on the wall for all to see. I once collected all of the box sets for the modern commemoratives from the four piece 1980 Olympics set to the four piece Smithsonian set. At the end of a winter FUN show there was dealer on the floor who had the four piece Jackie Robinson set for 20% under Gray Sheet bid ($2,600). The set had nothing wrong with it and was quite nice. At a convention full of the nation's leading dealers there was not one taker. The dealer didn't sell it. That was a clear indicator of where these coins were headed. The promotions and games were over. The price was ready to fall.
I have to agree with Bill. How the OP can look at one not-rare modern almost-bullion coin and declare a market collapse is beyond me.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
The collector fever was very high for this coin back then... one of those that the average collector says "Why didn't I buy one?".... and wails and moans over what could have been. Well... now the fever has long subsided and the premiums paid will not be recouped. Though this does not happen with all such issues, it is generally to be expected. Cheers, RickO
Seems rather logical to me, that price is declining. I suspect it will decline even more.
Yes, I realize that the coin has an interest to baseball fans... and an interest in regards to multiculturalism... but the MAJOR reason for the $4000 height was speculation plain and simple... it was the low mintage coin and much hype was made of the fact. It held that position for quite some time, but as previously stated, it is now displaced. No where to go but down IMHO. Course what do I know... perhaps it is time to jump in and buy at that price... but I'll pass. The coin holds no interest to me.
Not the first time items have been hyped in this hobby, and certainly will not be the last.
And of course, you cannot judge the hobby as a whole just due to this one modern coin declining in price. It is a displaced key.
Supply and Demand. The only thing rarer than this coin is a person who wants one.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
I do not see the drop in one modern coin as the bell weather that speaks for the entire coin market.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
And that's why the hobby thrives. There are some collectible coins worth having, in spite of the market's nuances.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Coin was bringing a hundred bucks plus more a few weeks ago. One has witnessed the collapse of pricing over the last couple of years across many if not most categories. I suspect at auction with 3 of the keys on the sidelines, a given $10,000,000 coin today might well be a 6 or 7 million dollar coin (of course it isn't for sale).
Keep Cac'ing them though all will be swell.
Supply will always meet demand. Variable is the cost. If I didn't bid it probably would have been a $750 coin.
The market is strange. Why day old donuts sell faster than fresh is beyond me. Must be the price drop.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
I recall reading promoters who said the Robinson was such a great investment given the small mintage and based on an (incorrect assumption) that there would always be many more collectors for this coin than coins available.
I think classic gold commems are in the same boat now, with farther to fall.
Commems and Early Type
CAC is another factor in any decline. When the sticker is REQUIRED to make a coin salable, the jig is up.
it's also a discouraging factor with more seasoned collectors.
As the lack of a sticker creates a "perceived" flaw, some collectors will dump any that do not sticker and baby, that would be a FLOOD of material into the "market."
i don't see cac as a factor here since they don't review moderns.
The entire market is interconnected. Collector who is fed up with sagging prices and CAC insanity may just throw in the towel and dump everything.
SAD BUT TRUE!!!!!
I buy coins I like....sticker or no sticker is not even a factor. I actually prefer no sticker....so the price isn't jacked up for a precieved better coin!!!!
I think this is terrific time to be buying if you have long term goals. The only problem is the lack of quality inventory available. When something special makes its way to sale there is a pent up feeding frenzy. There are tons and tons and tons of retreads in the market and there seems to be little bottom for these coins.
Coins that are all there and are esthetically pleasing will always be in demand.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I think the Internet is driving an increase in the demand for esthetically pleasing coins. When you see gorgeous coins posted on CoinFacts, the Registry, HA, forums, dealer sites, etc. it's easy to come away wanting beautiful coins.
Dreck shaming once more. Kudos to those that seek original high end coins. There will always be a home though for the hoards of non superior coins that make up 90 or 95% of the market. Should a 1799 dollar be shipped off for melt if it has been over dipped or scratched? Of course not, as with most hundred or two hundred year old coins that are historical artifacts that will always find a home in a collection. Prices paid though is the variable.
I think there is to much "flipping for profit" mentality in most collectors markets these days compared to the past. From houses to cars to whatever.. I have antique toy trucks as a side hobby and only rare and perfect condition trucks are selling well. The more flipping that goes on it seems in most cases that it ends up being a race to the bottom price wise....The "market" is changing but will be back eventually, maybe in a different way.. I hope for the best and prepare for the worst!
There will always be a home for the coins you cite. Just at what price. Certainly your selection is limitless and everything is on sale.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Supply will always meet demand. Variable is the cost. If I didn't bid it probably would have been a $750 coin.
supply and demand aren't as important as the right price.
When supply meets demand, you have the right, market, price:
The key date (national park) can be bought today for under $600 in MS70 on ebay. Why would the runner up cost more?
The national park is a better design, too.
I have a box of these moderns somewhere, buried deep, and they will stay there for the foreseeable future.
Collectability, as you bring baseball people into the fray.
I believe it was the first lady coins that tanked the category with mintages in the 2000-3000 range. Too many "rare" coins if you will. Certainly though the broader market decline cannot be overstated.