Is the market ready for trifurcation?
MrEureka
Posts: 24,422 ✭✭✭✭✭
CAC bifurcated the market by identifying the high end. Is it time for some other service to identify the middle in a similar way?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
2
Comments
Andy, you are making my head hurt.
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
Sure, might as well. Let's complicate things even more.
if CAC is given credit for identifying the "top" it seems like collectors should be given credit for understanding what is the bottom. what's left is the middle and we are done.
There should be a CAC sticker (maybe bronze) for coins that are wholesome for the grade but not "A" or "B." In some circles, if it doesn't have a sticker, it is placed in the same category as blatantly overgraded coins or those with significant issues (i.e. problem coins in straight graded slabs). CAC doesn't even have to make bids on them.
This market has enough grading kibitzers already.
It's probably easier to identify the bottom...the middle will have no stickers.
How about a sticker that says "I'll buy this one grade down". Many wholesome coins a credible 1/2 point away might sink back into the muck without that orange bean that says "Slow down, Unplayed with"
The market has already been in trifurcation since the early 1980's when firms like NPI brought out ABC attributes to describe further the numerical grades of their coins. The top end players have been trifurcating for 35 years (low end, ok for grade, high end). The average guy is still back at bifurcation.
If anything, we're morphing into quadfurcation with quintfurcation in the on-deck circle.
Over-graded - next grade down.
Low End
Solid for grade
High End
Under-graded - next grade higher.
and "Raw." You get what you get and you better know what you are getting.
That makes "sexifurcation.
A = grabs the eye
B - attracts attention
C = doesn't offend
D = offends
E = angers (dreck)
F = outrages (scheisse)
These are all in-grade ratings, nothing about bumps and wholesome drops.
The markets will continue, Hydra-like, to multifurcate until re-gentrification hits the neighborhood.
Other complaints will arise
Is it just coincidence that all but maybe one of these are traits displayed by trolls?
Does "trifurcation" have anything to do with the Trilateral Commission?
Is it related to Trying on Furs during Vacation?
@ColonelJessup said:
A = grabs the eye
B - attracts attention
C = doesn't offend
D = offends
E = angers (dreck)
F = outrages (scheisse)
You have a great idea for a "new" sticker service. Very easy to understand too. What can we call it? CJS?
In some worlds, a "try-lateral commission" is an auction reserve fee
As long as there is money to be made the grading scale will continue to be splintered. We aren't finished yet.
Does anyone know if it is true that some TPGS's are using a decimal system internally?
The stman Circulated Cameo™ stickers are coming soon to slabs near you.
its already here.
My comment would only get me in trouble
Best said only in person!
So long as the trend favors professionals thinking for you; there is no need to enhance your skills, or, teach the YN how to grade coins. Any service can be demarcated into a level of security that insures your lack of judgement, and also for the future generations of numismatics. The future on this path, you should know, is collecting bliss.....
Don't bother to learn, question, or, ask...it's all simply done for your convenience. Why?
Because your special! No need to think for yourself- we can do it for you!
Trust, trust, trust, and most importantly, spend, spend, spend!
IDK- having a moment. Sorry.
I vote, "I don't think so".
I dunno. When I look at a coin it's binary...... Yup or Nope. As long as the price is reasonable, I don't get too hung up on nickels and dimes.
The coin market is so tiny that any divisions risk making hash and confusing everyone until they get out of the hobby.
I was just talking to a dealer friend today, and the consensus was that the market is somewhere between quadrafurcated and sextafurcated.
Hmm...
NGC
NGC +
NGC CAC
NGC + CAC
NGC CAC Gold
PCGS
PCGS +
PCGS CAC
PCGS + CAC
PCGS CAC Gold
Then we could further subdivide those into:
Sub $5k
$5k-$15k
$15k-$25k
$25+k
finest known
ultra rarities
I agree. Most collectors and dealers cannot grade with a simple 11 point system much less resort to fractional grading.
I would recommend a POS (piece of manure) sticker for the low end.
A: The year they spend more on their library than their coin collection.
A numismatist is judged more on the content of their library than the content of their cabinet.
That's not necessarily a bad idea. Not that anyone would pay a fee for such labels, but dealers could put a POS label on coins that they're willing to sell below the normal levels. Don't laugh. POS coins would probably get more attention in a showcase than coins labeled PQ.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Yup green or Yup gold?
Splinterfurcation!
I can ID a bottom coin in an instant; I grade it POS.
rainbowroosie April 1, 2003
Wait... I thought the PQ sticker was code for the POS designation/a low-end coin. Most of the dealers that regularly sell PQ coins do not need to label the coins as such because the coins tell the whole story.
No more rackets. With the bids stagnant or going down nothing is going to prop it up. Time to buy currency, mods.
As evidenced by the pluses in the gold sheet demand seems to be moving sideways.
This is true. I doubt anyone posting here would care but some dealers are making a very good living selling "details" coins and buying "raw" problem coins to get slabbed. It's what the "average" Joe can afford.
The new turd stickers...three levels of stink.
I think the light colored one in the middle should be at the top.
Hard to disagree with that.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Some believe the LACK of a CAC sticker IS a 'sticker' signifying 'low end'.
Since the market is bifurcated between A-B and C coins, to identify the middle B coins we need to distinguish between A and B.
I never knew grading could be so complicated - especially on the commercial side.
I read a story about a group of mostly famous numismatists who were in a meeting at Stack's regarding the formation of a grading service at ANACS. After some discussion going nowhere fast, Dennis Loring took out a 1794 Large cent and passed it around the table with each person writing their grade anonymously on a slip of paper. Most of these guys were the market makers and numismatic intellectuals of the 1960's and 1970's. Some are still around but I don't remember many names from the article. An ANACS authenticator at the meeting wrote that he had probably seen one or two of this type of coin in his life so he opened the Photograde book and the coin matched the XF image. That turned out to be the "technical" grade of the coin. When Dennis opened the slips of paper the grades of that coin by the professional numismatists went from VF to AU! They all had their reasons for the grade they assigned. Some had net graded the XF coin for slight problems. Some raised the grade of the XF coin due to its actual value in the marketplace. Is it any wonder that this same sort of "problem" exists today. We'll never have standards as long as A-B, C, this TPGS or that one...LOL.
Sure! Why not?
But then, what difference would it really make?
The name is LEE!
I am just getting into the hobby and found out I cannot send my coins to CAC directly. This puts me at the mercy of whatever a dealer wants to charge for certification. I know I am new at this, but if enough collectors told the dealers they are not going to pay premium for a stickers, would this not stop? What good does it do to be good at grading when you are dependent on a bunch of stickers. Just a thought.
What's the big deal? Either a coin is BU or it isn't.
(You can probably tell I'm not a YN.)
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I know several dealers already peel green CAC stickers off coins they try to market as upgradeable.
No way is any dealer going to put stickers on their coins saying they're average coins or otherwise not good for the grade. And there is zero someone actually going to pay for that service!
The grading companies already do a pretty good job of helping folks know what the great of a coin is. CAC is there too for people that need a little additional assistance. Seems to be good enough for me.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
The opportunity to wallow in the stench of mediocrity... sounds like fun.
Sort of reminds me of that bumper sticker... I'm okay you're so so... but for coins.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I think that this is a good idea to increase liquidity but unlikely to ever find traction
Latin American Collection
if things keep going the way they appear to be headed a collector soon won't even need to know how to grade. it will all be like a free trip to the bank while humming a version of "2525" that says some machine's doing that for you in the grading room. it strikes me as odd that here, at the pre-eminent TPG's chat room where so many supposed astute Numismatists with top tier grading skills reside, there is such a reliance on multiple grade appraisals.
has everyone lost confidence in their own skill or has that skill been overrated to begin with??
@keets... Yes, grading skills, in many cases, are overrated.... there is a reason for that. Grading is subjective, and as long as that continues, so will grading disputes and grading systems continue. The solution, as I have said, here and elsewhere, is computer grading. It is technically achievable, though it will be expensive. Once done, it will eliminate all the issues with the possible exception of eye appeal, which, we know, is personal. All measurable parameters can be defined and programmed. Of course, if different grading companies develop different programs we will simply be right back here in the morass of opinion. If there is one, ultimate, authoritative program, that would eliminate TPG's, FPG's as we know them today. Change will come, that is the only thing we can depend on.... Cheers, RickO
I'm just going to keep doing what I've been doing.
Coin Rarities Online
Welcome to this great hobby. You are not at the mercy of a dealer charging you whatever they want for certification. Most will do it for free. Just the cost of CAC and many postage. You can submit directly as a collector but there is indeed a waiting list. Put your name on it. The advantage of sending in coins as a collector is that if they don't pass you don't get charged for it.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......