I start with the assumption that all of these cats KNOW how to grade, therefore whatever happens is done on purpose.
If you take 20 commems, 10 PC65 and 10 NGC 65 and just show the coin images with no labels, slabs or whatever, most of the people could pick out out 9 of the 10 PCGS and 9 of the 10 NGC...that tells me there's a difference and my purchasing reflects that.
@CaptHenway said:
If, hypothetically, one TPG were to gradeflate its current coins to the point that its current coins were worth less that another hypothetical TPG's current coins, would the first TPG's OLDER coins lose value as well?
If the older holder coin has been off the market for a number of years, then no it probably did not lose value.
But if that old holder coin has made a few auction appearances, and is sill not upgraded or beaned, then you are probably looking at a "coffin"
@shorecoll said:
Conditions may be due to the crackout game.
I start with the assumption that all of these cats KNOW how to grade, therefore whatever happens is done on purpose.
If you take 20 commems, 10 PC65 and 10 NGC 65 and just show the coin images with no labels, slabs or whatever, most of the people could pick out out 9 of the 10 PCGS and 9 of the 10 NGC...that tells me there's a difference and my purchasing reflects that.
That would make a great thread. Wish I had the computer talent to do that. Even 3 PCGS and 3 NGC commemoratives of the same type should be fun. However if we did 10 from each service I think the correct opinions would be lower UNLESS only the 4 and 5 star professional dealers (?) were allowed to play. That's what I would do, 20 coins - all Stone Mt or Columbian - any member can guess but ONLY the opinions of the top members on this sight would get tabulated. If they got 9 out of 10 correct, I would be a believer. Unfortunately, it appears that anyone can look out auction images.
@roadrunner said:
If you want your answer go out and look at all the PCGS MS65 and NGC MS65 bust halves you can find...and compare them. Then get back to us. For a short and sweet synopsis, just look at the total # of MS coins graded vs. what each service has put in 65 holders. I've also been a primary NGC submitter from 1987-2011, with about 90% of my coins going to NGC....for specific reasons.
Maurice Rosen has published statistics on cac success with PCGS and NGC coins at near and above gem level and I did not see anything that looked lop-sided toward PCGS.
insider2
there is a easily seen difference
**
possibly even from the same TPG and most certainly often from one TPG to another. **the question is Why?
PROPERLY GRADED COINS
based on who's criteria?, a grey sheet? a red sheet etc.. or based on the best or largest TPG's criteria? It would not matter as long as all use the same.
can only be done if every TPG uses the same rules and norms!
Every consumer will then have a right of getting what it is said to be inside the slab.
IMO, the TPG's do not want such a method as it would eliminate the pricing and name graded competition.
The term properly graded coins can mean anything and is simply subject to ones personal interpretation.
we have 2 Canadian TPG's and their results are sometimes miles apart!
Your first statement: "I have asked many consumers of the product TPG's produce to explain the difference between a MS66 and a MS65 graded coin. you guessed it...nobody was able to clearly describe it."
IMO, you are not asking the "right" people. Have you ever taken a grading seminar? I posted some tips to get you started. As you must know, the differences between the MS-64 to MS-66 grades can be very important with respect to value. I believe that many here (including me most of the time) can tell the difference. Perhaps that is why I think it is easy. I understand that was a foolish statement on my part. It is not an easy thing to do without study, mentors, and the experience of viewing X numbers of coins.
I agree with you that there will NEVER be standards that are followed by all including the TPGS's. So what? I have my own standards. That means I can disagree with a grade while at the same time understand it and AGREE that the coin is graded correctly by "market" and TPGS standards. My personal grading standards mean nothing to anyone because they don't count! The market keeps chugging along. Some coins are upgraded, some stay the same. I've heard it said that eventually everything will be maxed out or over graded.
What is a properly graded coin? When you reach a certain level of expertise, you will know. Additionally, the TPGS, CAC, and the majority of knowledgeable, experienced, professional numismatists will also know and agree. Nevertheless, some subjectivity may creep in, even among the majority. I doubt it will occur too much in the 64 - 66 range as too much money is often at stake. That's why a typical slider 84-S will not grade Unc while an identical common date coin with the same amount of friction will. That's also why some valuable coins will not be graded above MS-65 unless they look like MS-67's! That way, an MS-66 grade and the $$,$$$$ will be acceptable.
Hang in there and eventually it will become easy for you too.
Because there is a pretense that PCGS is more accurate in grading than ngc, or more strict in their standards.
However, I've seen a lot of overgrading by PCGS lately...
Who cares why pcgs graded coins tend to sell for more?
The real question is do you drink the kool aid?
Each coin stands on it's own merit. I had a coin sell for multiples of what I paid for it and it was in an NGC holder.
I've had coins submitted to PCGS that were good coins , which I lost money on even though they sold for more in the PCGS holder as compared to similar specimens ATS.
Insider2 ( and others)
well said...and much respected. But we are still at the same breaking point.
I have fared well for the last 50 years by sticking to my personal preference when buying: Buy the coin!!! Not the packaging!!!
When selling, It is "you decide on my pictures provided".
I use TPG's opinions only as a guide to decide what I am willing to pay.
I have submitted one and the same coin to a specific TPG in Canada 5 times, each time as raw.
the 5th time i got the grade I hoped for and I believe the coin deserves., compared with others.( but "others" is another can of worms.)
1st time EF 40
2nd time EF 40
3rd time EF 45
4th time EF 40
5th Time AU 50
what does that tell you????
Only the coins I wish to sell are going to a TPG.
presently I am confronted with a dilemma :
all Canadian coins I wish to sell, a Canadian TPG, or a US TPG??? coins are some doubles and triples I have, some rare and scarce, high grades and some varieties.
Any suggestions?
@YQQ said:
Insider2 ( and others)
well said...and much respected. But we are still at the same breaking point.
I have fared well for the last 50 years by sticking to my personal preference when buying: Buy the coin!!! Not the packaging!!!
When selling, It is "you decide on my pictures provided".
I use TPG's opinions only as a guide to decide what I am willing to pay.
I have submitted one and the same coin to a specific TPG in Canada 5 times, each time as raw.
the 5th time i got the grade I hoped for and I believe the coin deserves., compared with others.( but "others" is another can of worms.)
1st time EF 40
2nd time EF 40
3rd time EF 45
4th time EF 40
5th Time AU 50
what does that tell you????
Only the coins I wish to sell are going to a TPG.
presently I am confronted with a dilemma :
all Canadian coins I wish to sell, a Canadian TPG, or a US TPG??? coins are some doubles and triples I have, some rare and scarce, high grades and some varieties.
Any suggestions?
Thanks for the props. I'm not a dealer. I have heard that Canadian dealers/collectors tend to be cheap. I'm going to guess that your coins will bring more money in a U.S. Slab.
As for Canadian TPGS, one may be better than the other. We have some crooks slabbing coins down here. AU's called MS-66. The threads are full of cases as you wrote about. IMO, there is no way a coin can be graded XF-40 one time and AU-50 another by a reputable grader.
I will say this. I have graded a bunch of coins before as a personal test. Once they were in a 2X2 I would look at one or two and say to myself, that's over graded. In any case my XF never became an AU. I have had AU's drop to 45's.
@CaptHenway said:
If, hypothetically, one TPG were to gradeflate its current coins to the point that its current coins were worth less that another hypothetical TPG's current coins, would the first TPG's OLDER coins lose value as well?
That happened with graded comic books. And the older graded material generally sold for more money because they were distinguishable from the newer material due to the type of holder. But I've also seen grading companies go out of business because they loosened their standards to the point that people no longer trusted any of their material. If I ran a grading company, my standards would be a little bit tighter than everyone else so my slabs were always in demand. The converse is also true...loose standards equates to less demand from the general public.
Really enjoying collecting coins and currency again
The term properly graded coins can mean anything and is simply subject to ones personal interpretation.
This statement is not true, and I will give you a very practical example of why that is the case.
Let’s say you have an 1877 Indian cent that is in a “third world grading holder.” What I mean by that is that it is not in an NGC, PCGS, ICG, ANACS or SEGS holder. The coin is genuine, and it’s graded Very Fine, but all of the letters of “LIBERTY” have been worn off the coin.
You do your research and determine a fair wholesale price for an 1877 Indian Cent in Very Fine and even take a couple dollars off to sweeten the deal since it’s housed in a “third world grading holder.” Then you shop it around to dealers at a major coin convention.
The reaction from those dealers will be “no thank you” because the coin is not even close to the “proper” grading standards. You might have YOUR “personal interpretation” of what the grade is, but if that is not even close to what most everyone else’s interpretation is, you are not going to sell your item at the price that seems fair to you.
There are practical, somewhat informal, grading standards, and I’ve learned through the school of hard knocks that you had best learn what they are when you are buying and selling. If you don’t, you will lose a lot of money really fast, or you will have turn to deception to make up for the difference. I don’t know how they do it, but a few dealers have survived using deception, at least for while, but that’s not how I was raised or how I want to do business.
Do grading standards change? Yes, but the changes, mostly in a downward projection, must be done with some subtlety over a period of time. A residual effect is the mystique that some collectors apply to coins housed in “ratter holders,” “old NGC fatty holders,” and “old green label holders.” Some collectors think that ALL of the coins in those holders are accurately or conservatively graded, which is not always the case.
The point is there are standards, and most people have to pay attention to them.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
I agree with @BillJones we need more not less competition to keep the prices in line and the grading honest. I have both NGC & PCGS coins. I don't see any differences. Loyalty should be to the practice, the quality, and the coin. If a ex-employee of either company was gracious enough to look at my coin, and said it was this or that, I would believe them and mark it that way on my slip and put it away for safe keeping. I like graded coins, but sometimes the boxes and original display are way cooler then the blah blah slab. I have most Raw coins from the Mints.
@stevereecy said: "If I ran a grading company, my standards would be a little bit tighter than everyone else so my slabs were always in demand."
It's lucky you don't!
If you were too tight, the only business you would get would be from people who don't know how to grade and who like other things about your company. Eventually, you would go out of business.
The point of a TPGS is to do their best to "get it right" for all concerned: the coin, the submitter, and the future buyer. Please them all, and you can retire.
The answer is very obvious. Feel free to PM me. And it's not just Bust halves either.
Great comment by Shorecoll above that you can generally tell which holder a coin is in by the grade assigned and the "look" of the coin. It probably shouldn't be the case....but it certainly is. I find myself doing that with choice/gem bust, seated and Barber MS type coins....and being right about 2/3 or more of the time.
@shorecoll said:
Conditions may be due to the crackout game.
I start with the assumption that all of these cats KNOW how to grade, therefore whatever happens is done on purpose.
If you take 20 commems, 10 PC65 and 10 NGC 65 and just show the coin images with no labels, slabs or whatever, most of the people could pick out out 9 of the 10 PCGS and 9 of the 10 NGC...that tells me there's a difference and my purchasing reflects that.
^^^^^^^^
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@shorecoll said:
Conditions may be due to the crackout game.
I start with the assumption that all of these cats KNOW how to grade, therefore whatever happens is done on purpose.
If you take 20 commems, 10 PC65 and 10 NGC 65 and just show the coin images with no labels, slabs or whatever, most of the people could pick out out 9 of the 10 PCGS and 9 of the 10 NGC...that tells me there's a difference and my purchasing reflects that.
^^^^^^^^
mark
Wow, I have a lot to learn. Would one of you care to give us some of the things you look for on a commemorative coin that reveal the TPGS?
If, hypothetically, one TPG were to gradeflate its current coins to the point that its current coins were worth less that another hypothetical TPG's current coins, would the first TPG's OLDER coins lose value as well?
You had me confused at first!
To answer the question, it would depend mostly on whether the coin will upgrade based on the new "standard".
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Wow, I have a lot to learn. Would one of you care to give us some of the things you look for on a commemorative coin that reveal the TPGS?
Depth of luster, flashy or dullish surfaces, number and location of marks, type of toning esp. the type that mutes the luster or is unattractive for the grade, etc. In the period of 1998 to 2008 I felt that NGC MS64-67 seated and bust coins were generally or on average 1/3 of a grade weaker than PCGS. Always exceptions though. You could have 1-2 pt. differences, and even sometimes where the NGC coin was clearly nicer. But, this is about averages.
I have done a great deal of comparisons between the two grading services
Sometimes when determining values for specific grades, I would search on Heritage and other sites for all coins of a specific grade. Looked at the coins, see the slabs, determine what the average is, seeing if the coin looks nicer, does the price
reflect the condition and eye appeal
Found on average, PCGS coins for the same grade realized a higher value.
But found for a small percentage of coins, NGC coins realized more. It made no rhyme or reason why as both coins appeared the same. Sometimes it might reflect how many are in that auction of that date, mm, and grade.
IMO thought, part of the unseen or unmeasurable factor is the buyer, what are they willing to pay, when a specific
coin they are seeking is available. Also, I am sure most of use have been to auctions, you want something, how much
are you willing to push the limit when bidding, sometimes passion overtakes logic.
If the same coin (date, mm, condition) are in NGC and PCGS holders, if a big diff, then I will buy the NGC as I am buying
the coin, not the slab.
On why the prices might be different, just speculating
Perhaps it is something as basic as the holder, PCGS IMO has a nicer holder, slightly more aesthetic, compared to
a simple white holder.
Perhaps there is a higher confidence level on the grading standards, even though IMO, both have been changing
grading standards over the years, perhaps in part due to different graders passing through there.
Perhaps in part it is due to PCGS's convincing the dealers to use their product, they have PCGS day and sponsored events.
I believe I remember that PCGS had more guarantees, not on grade, but on a coin being genuine.
Core problem is conception, if you believe your coins will bring more money in a specific type of holder, you tend to
lean that way. If most collectors believe this, that PCGS holders will bring more, how would they change that?
I know I have many of my die varieties slabbed by ANACS, which I believe will bring less than either of the other two.
IMO its all perspective
Grading of course is just an opinion
I have seen certified coins that were proofs that were slabbed not a proofs and vice versa, grading standards
all over the place, the same coin being sent in multiple times and receiving different grades. Don't know how many times
I have seen a coin go from AU58 to MS63.
Coins are normally viewed for a period of 10 seconds, 5 seconds on each side under a 5x loop.
Sometimes, certain attributes are graded higher by a service, for example, I believe NGC grades higher on toning,
maybe this is because they find this to contribute more to the eye appeal. I also have seen coins graded in specific
series graded better by a service. Most likely reflects the graders working there and the experience with that series.
Very informative. Your opinion would give PCGS a great business model. I like the breakdown by percentages. Let's see what % the other members who respond choose.
The only difference I ever hear of was that at one time NGC was rough on darkly toned coins.
NGC was NEVER tougher on darker coins than PCGS. Just the opposite. NGC had a rep in the 1988-1989 market where they would grade deeply toned type coins with muted luster as MS65. And that stuck. I routinely looked for dullish PCGS MS63/64 bust and seated coins with clean surfaces....and sent them back to NGC where they often came out a grade higher. And in a sight-unseen market it was instant money. They gave too much emphasis to mark free surfaces vs. bold luster/eye appeal.
The only time in NGC history that I would say they were "rough" across the board was the first 6 months they were open in 1987-1988 when they were ultra-conservative. Everything I originally submitted very early on had to go back again. And in nearly every case, I got a higher grade 2nd time around. By mid-1988 it was all sorted out though.
From what I've seen and heard from long term dealers who have been authorized members since the 80s the grade inflation is true of both major "money" grade services. Like an MA dealer who showed me images of a group of gold coins that came out of PCGS significantly higher than he had graded them according to cac standards or even tighter. A 66+ he was able to sell for huge money.
Grade inflation is a cultural reality, as in books on the college experience where the students are the "customers" and obviously want the highest passing grades, Harvard confers "cum laude" and above honors to the overwhelming majority of students. https://www.quora.com/Is-Harvard-the-only-university-where-90-graduate-with-honors-cum-laude-or-better Paying consumers appear to be calling the shots instead of the standard bearers.
PCGS coins are 90% about correctly graded or undergraded and 10% overgraded (mostly 1 grade) and there almost never are nogrades.
NGC coins are 90% overgraded (in some cases 2 grades or more), 5% they are probably nogrades and 5% are ok graded.
Thats from what I saw the last 20 years.
Buying a NGC coin to me is like buying a raw coin with a certificate its not counterfied.
That's a pretty accurate definition of "NGC holder bias." As good as any I've ever seen. Dealer Larry Whitlow absolutely despised NGC coins. Any time I showed him a great coin in an NGC holder, we'd come close to physical blows....lol. I stopped showing him those coins....lol. He hated my 1858-0 NGC MS66 dime back in 2003. Too dark, too many hits, weak luster. That coin graded MS65 back in 1988 when I first submitted it. Today? It's PCGS MS66+ CAC...the highest at PCGS and a contender as finest known. 3 grades in 28 years...where's the 90% accuracy?
There's never been a TPG that's 90% consistent or accurate. And likewise never been one 90% inaccurate (ie outside of PCGS, NGC, ANACS, Hallmark, and early ICG, PCI). My own numbers place the big 2 in the 50-75% range at any particular time....though most of the time in the 65-75% range. Anything less than 65% to me is just inappropriate considering the best graders out there on their own are 75%-85% accurate. 3 graders at 80% accuracy "should" net out at over 90% net....unfortunately mathematical models don't apply to subjective grading. 90% TPG accuracy could be done on some coins....but it would require more graders, and more time per coin. In other words, it would cost a lot more. If you're willing to spend $100 per economy grading submission (and $250 for express) I think we could see 90%. With improved accuracy comes a price.
My 30 yrs of experience with the TPG's bears no relation to what PCC stated above. And it doesn't change over the last 10 yrs, middle 10 years, or first 10 yrs. Heck, even in 1987-1990 when the TPG's where as good as they ever were utilizing some of the best dealers in the world as part time graders, there was an active arbitrage market in upgrading the mistakes. Even then I'd figure on any 10 coin submission to either service, 6-7 coins come back as expected, 2-3 lower, and 1 higher. Such a thing would (or could) never happen if they were 90% accurate. There would be no need for CAC if they were 90% accurate. If there was 90% accuracy, the grading problem would be solved and we'd have nothing to discuss. Submissions to the TPG's would have dried up 10 years ago with 90% accuracy. They've have had to look for something else to fill their time. If the TPG's (any one of them) were 90% accurate or inaccurate, CAC would be stickering or not stickering 90% of what comes in the door.....clearly that's NOT the case....except for maybe MS65 and higher $20 Saints/Libs. where CAC has decided on a 3-6% sticker rate, possibly to keep potentially vast supplies on the reasonable side.
A 90% accuracy rate would bite deeply into the "resubmission" market, reducing revenues. A 90% accuracy would suggest you need to submit on average 9 more times to get the higher/lower grade. That's far different than getting different grades in every 2-4 submissions (ie the norm)....which is why the regrade market flourishes. Only 1 time in my career have I had a coin come back the same grade 4X-5X. And that was a 64++ coin that eventually did make 65 for a future owner. The fact that we have gradeflation over the past 30 yrs suggests that 50-90% of the grades have changed (mostly for the higher) over that period. How is that 90% accuracy? Maybe you can get 90% accuracy from 1 month to the next one. But over years? Nope. Grading allowances change every few years. Graders cycle through the services too. Too many variables for 90% in anything. We could certainly pick some random choice/gem MS seated and bust coins from the market and submit them up to 10X each to prove/disprove PCC's theory. But if we are covering the past 10-20 yrs, it's already common knowledge that 90% accuracy did not occur. If I had to pick a number from 1987 to date.....I'd say 65-80% of the grades have changed. The fact that many concede to a 50% resubmission rate at the TPG's over 30 years, suggests at best a 50% accuracy rate.
You have convinced me; but what about 88% - 85% at the least? Otherwise, what is the point? Are all of you throwing money down a rat hole in a big scam? Hummm, got me thinking. Shouldn't most coins graded by the top two services rate a green bean?
Well maybe there is one that is 90% consistent over time.
I believe Briggs SEGS is pretty consistent
But also, Briggs is the primary grader there I believe,
IMO, if you have the same people, you are more likely to produce the same results over time,
not all the time, but a higher percentage as compared to if different individuals who have different experiences and
knowledge.
@coinhack said:
As it has been stated throughout this thread, PCGS may be the best and coins in their holders may sell for the most money but NGC is still the largest grading service.
NGC 37 million plus
PCGS 36 million plus
NGC may be largest to date by volume, but not in revenue nor in value of the coins graded. NGC does more modern bullion coins with lower average ticket price. Those posted volumes are over the last 30 years as well, not in the last year. I'd bet in the last year PCGS had more volume, more revenue, and more profit
@Insider2 said:
Makes sense that 90% is way too high.
You have convinced me; but what about 88% - 85% at the least? Otherwise, what is the point? Are all of you throwing money down a rat hole in a big scam? Hummm, got me thinking. Shouldn't most coins graded by the top two services rate a green bean?
An 85% rate would still (imo) be considered "solving the grading problem" and hence little need to resubmit coins. Are you gonna resubmit the same coin 8.5X for a shot at the higher grade you think it could get? No. So at what level will the typical rank and file of the hobby (dealers and collectors) play the resubmission game? How about where the grade can change at least once in every 3 to 4 submissions? I've played that game. I would not play the 7X to 10X game though. I leave that to the super pro's.
If SEGS is 90% accurate, it's only to repeating their own standard. No way would SEGS and PCGS ever be in 90% agreement on a wide spectrum of US coins. If that was the true, SEGS would currently be in the #2 slot....not NGC. Who needs PCGS if SEGS is 90% accurate? What really matters is what % does SEGS agree with PCGS/NGC. I could venture a number but...no thanks.
JA at CAC "might" be 90% accurate to his own opinion. But I think that would be stretching things. I seriously doubt if I took 10 CAC'd MS65 Saints and then mixed them up with 90 nice looking, non-CAC'd specimens that they could pick out all 10. I'd be surprised if they could pick out half of them. I think any top professional is repeatable to about an 80-85% rate. 90-95% is really stretching reality. I wonder what Mr. Eureka, CNNCoins, NJCoincrank, Col. Jessup would say on this? You can make a lot of money in the coin market being 65-75% accurate to PCGS/NGC standards. You don't need to be 90%.
NGC was NEVER tougher on darker coins than PCGS. Just the opposite. NGC had a rep in the 1988-1989 market where they would grade deeply toned type coins with muted luster as MS65.
NGC developed a bad habit back then of grading silver coins with dark toning that looked like they at been AT'd. That's marked the first time that NGC slipped behind PCGS. It was noted on the Blue Sheet where PCGS forged ahead on that price guide.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@kevinj said:
Well maybe there is one that is 90% consistent over time.
I believe Briggs SEGS is pretty consistent
But also, Briggs is the primary grader there I believe,
IMO, if you have the same people, you are more likely to produce the same results over time,
not all the time, but a higher percentage as compared to if different individuals who have different experiences and
knowledge.
Kevin
Any time a grading service/dealership has one main grader, the standards will stay close. That is what the TPGS finalizer is for. They are to hold the company standard. I have heard that for some submitters the owner of the company grades the box.
Ok, I think the problem may be the pressure to push coins through the system. I'll bet any of you experienced posters could reach 90%+ agreement with each other on a coin if you were allowed to study it using magnification. Done, next coin. Same thing and done. Ok, you took 2 minutes or less on each coin. The reason I say this is I have witnessed this done by students in grading classes.
While we as a group of students can get the technical grade "correct" 90+% or guess the TPGS grade on common dollars at a surprising rate, throw in a rarity or early type coin and all bets are off. You guys with experience don't have this problem.
So, If a bunch of you 4 star and 5 star members could not beat us kids when a TPGS slab (covered grade) is examined with magnification and no time limit - I'd be shocked!
Hummm, got me thinking. Shouldn't most coins graded by the top two services rate a green bean?
If we took a trip back to 1988/1989 I'd probably say yes. JA was a primary player in NGC back then. I would hope he'd agree with the majority of coins in PCGS/NGC holders at that time as he was an orig member of each firm.
Today? No. What niche or service would CAC be carving out if they agreed with the majority of what was coming out of the TPG's? How would they stay in business if they generally agreed? Why would they have even have started such a business in the first place? What was the market need? We routinely discussed TPG grading around here in 2004-2007 and that it was no longer at 1990-1995 levels. The gist of that was don't be holding the weak coins when the market eventually tanked (it did in late 2008/early 2009).
Hummm, got me thinking. Shouldn't most coins graded by the top two services rate a green bean?
If we took a trip back to 1988/1989 I'd probably say yes. JA was a primary player in NGC back then. I would hope he'd agree with the majority of coins in PCGS/NGC holders at that time as he was an orig member of each firm.
Today? No. What niche or service would CAC be carving out if they agreed with the majority of what was coming out of the TPG's? How would they stay in business if they generally agreed? Why would they even have started such a business in the first place?
That's my point. There should be no need for CAC. The fact that it exists, and the fact that most PCGS and NGC coins don't have the bean can only mean this:
They have not been sent it to CAC.
If they have, CAC does not agree they are correctly graded!
They are not worth the price of trying for a bean.
Hummm, got me thinking. Shouldn't most coins graded by the top two services rate a green bean?
If we took a trip back to 1988/1989 I'd probably say yes. JA was a primary player in NGC back then. I would hope he'd agree with the majority of coins in PCGS/NGC holders at that time as he was an orig member of each firm.
Today? No. What niche or service would CAC be carving out if they agreed with the majority of what was coming out of the TPG's? How would they stay in business if they generally agreed? Why would they even have started such a business in the first place?
Brian allow me to tack this on......mark
From JA
If a coin doesn’t receive a CAC sticker, does this mean CAC believes the coin is over-graded?
Absolutely not. There are many coins that are certified accurately for their grade. Unfortunately, it is an inescapable reality that many are at the lower end of the quality range for the assigned grade. CAC’s rejection of a coin does not necessarily mean that CAC believes the coin has been over-graded. It simply means that there are other coins with CAC stickers that are of higher quality for the grade. CAC will eventually reject tens of thousands of accurately graded coins. Many of these rejected coins will be acceptable to numerous dealers and collectors and will continue to be available in the marketplace. For quality-conscious collectors and dealers, a coin with a CAC sticker will have significant meaning.
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
PCGS coins are 90% about correctly graded or undergraded and 10% overgraded (mostly 1 grade) and there almost never are nogrades.
NGC coins are 90% overgraded (in some cases 2 grades or more), 5% they are probably nogrades and 5% are ok graded.
Thats from what I saw the last 20 years.
Buying a NGC coin to me is like buying a raw coin with a certificate its not countrified.
I completely disagree, but I can also see how you might come to that conclusion. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're basing your opinion based mostly on very high high grade and high-powered coins that have come to market over the years. The problem with that approach, as I explained earlier in the thread, is that people have a great incentive to cross "accurately graded" coins from NGC to PCGS. And the more expensive the coin, the more that is true.
I think that if you saw everything that came back from both services, including all of the coins that was later cracked out or crossed over, you would have an extraordinarily different opinion of the two services. Then again, I can see how you might consider that irrelevant for your purposes, since you only get to buy what you get to see.
All of which is not to say that there have not been times when NGC was looser than PCGS. But there have also been times when the opposite was true.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Grading is subjective. Perhaps that's why ONE standard cannot be adopted. Einstein was onto something , as the theory of relativity goes. Sheldon was onto something as the theory of "condition" and "rarity" go. It's not as complex as some make it out to be. (in MY opinion, which is largely disregarded, tyvm )
Mark, I would call that legalese to ensure CAC keeps clear of litigation issues from the TPG's. No way do all 3 of them want to end up in the courts trying to debate/defend "over-grading" when it will lead to no good out comes for our hobby. CAC isn't ever going to do that, even if true. We've been there before with Accugrade and others and there are no winners. JA has no problem identifying under-graded coins with a "gold" bean. He could do the same for over-graded coins with a "brown" bean. Since that leads to no positive outcomes....it's not going to happen. CAC looks at coins that are over-graded and includes them with the low end/appropriately graded/unstickered coins. CAC dodges the controversy by stating that the lack of a sticker doesn't mean a coin is over-graded.....though it certainly could be true. If there wasn't a relatively "too high" % of over-graded/low end coins in holders, there would be no need for CAC. We wouldn't want to pay for their services.
I'll take it a step further, if we all really believed there were no worse than low-end coins in holders, there would also be no need for CAC. A,B,C coins would be enough to define the market and handle the risk. Thing is, we know we have D coins.....even F's. In the pre-2008 market, a typical low end C, D, F, coin might fetch 10-15% less than a solid coin. Today, it's more like 30-50%. Low end coins we could all handle w/o CAC. Remember all those solid to higher end 64 coins that became 65's in 2004-2008? Are those C coins or really D, F coins? In my mind, any 64 coin that jumped to 65 after numerous attempts isn't a C coin....it's a mid-grade...or a D, F coin.
The market has (imo) interpreted CAC's statement to mean the PCGS coins w/o stickers are probably graded correctly. For NGC coins w/o stickers, they are "perceived" or assumed to be in the wrong grade, and usually realize the same money as PCGS stickered coins at a grade lower (ie an NGC 66 w/o bean will realize about what a PCGS 65/65+ coin might fetch). It really doesn't matter what JA/CAC have stated....the market has made the decision on its own, whether rightly or wrongly. That's all that matters. By not identifying the "brown" beans directly, the market has gone and done it (whether accurately or not). A CAC coin is perceived to be "good." If "not CAC'd," the market has twisted it to mean "not good." Markets fill in meanings where holes exist.
My understanding is that top graders are typically in the range of 85% consistent to the TPG standards.
Teams of graders can be even more accurate, because obvious mistakes get weeded out by the team.
PCGS really is probably 90%+ consistent to their own standard. NGC is probably about the same.
But with crackouts, crossovers, and the simple act of solid coins finding good homes, the coins remaining in the market look progressively worse as time goes by. Especially for high-powered coins, and even more so for high-powered NGC coins.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Here are three big NGC coins that I own. Think that all of them are credible and worth the money I paid for them. Some NGC graded coins are properly graded and don't deserve the condemnation that some people lay on the brand.
This is graded MS-62. I paid MS-60 to 61 money for it.
This is graded MS-65, which I think is right on the money.
And this is graded MS-64, CAC. This is nicer than the PCGS octagonal piece I have in the same grade.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@Insider2 said:
Since this appears to be true. Why is that. I'm looking for actual reasons not feelings or X is a better grading service. So far, I have not submitted directly to either service.
I don't know the reasons so...
Perhaps PCGS has more dealer members?
Perhaps PCGS advertises more?
?
?
?
I've submitted to both services. I hold them in high esteem, Most everything on my website was submitted by me.
And that's not to toot my horn, rather to explain the "reason" from my perspective. I trust PCGS just a bit more.
For some, the TPG is merely a corridor for higher profits.
For me, it's a Hallway to honing my own skills.
@Justacommeman said: Brian allow me to tack this on......mark
From JA
If a coin doesn’t receive a CAC sticker, does this mean CAC believes the coin is over-graded?
Absolutely not. There are many coins that are certified accurately for their grade. Unfortunately, it is an inescapable reality that many are at the lower end of the quality range for the assigned grade. CAC’s rejection of a coin does not necessarily mean that CAC believes the coin has been over-graded. It simply means that there are other coins with CAC stickers that are of higher quality for the grade. CAC will eventually reject tens of thousands of accurately graded coins. Many of these rejected coins will be acceptable to numerous dealers and collectors and will continue to be available in the marketplace. For quality-conscious collectors and dealers, a coin with a CAC sticker will have significant meaning.
OK, I just learned something. NOTE: I'm not writing about OVER GRADING in this post. So...
This is what I'm reading: If I send a PCGS coin graded MS-64 which is NOT OVERGRADED and in CAC's opinion is a MS-64.2. THE COIN WILL NOT GET A BEAN. If another coin graded by PCGS is an MS-64.8, it will likely get a bean.
If CAC makes a "market" in coins with a bean, this makes perfect business sense.
Thus, all coins that are actually are MS-64's may not be '64's in CAC's eyes. Did I read what JA wrote correctly? If so, CAC must be picking out the top range (the .5 to .9 coins) of each grade to put the bean on. Am I correct? If that is the case, I understand it. Previously, I ignorantly thought a CAC sticker indicated the grade on the label was correct.
Oh, my...how stupid. Thanks for the education and posting the JA explanation of CAC's practices. I told all of you and @Justacommeman that I know absolutely nothing about the commercial coin market. Do you believe me now?
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@MrEureka said:
My understanding is that top graders are typically in the range of 85% consistent to the TPG standards.
Teams of graders can be even more accurate, because obvious mistakes get weeded out by the team.
PCGS really is probably 90%+ consistent to their own standard. NGC is probably about the same.
I only look at what coins I've submitted over and over again to the TPG's as possible examples of consistency. I cannot even begin to imagine getting the same grade 9 out of 10 times on ANY coin I submit....let alone 90% of them.
Andy, if I pick out 4 random MS63-66 seated type coins, and submit them all up to 10X to PCGS, you are convinced that they will each grade the same 9/10 times? Will you pay all my grading fees if you are wrong? I will hand off the 4 coins to a trusted 3rd party dealer who will send the coins in and tabulate the results. After each event the coins will be cracked out, labels and submission forms saved, and repeated up to 10X. As soon a coin gets a different grade before the 10th time, that coin is processed out as a failure. Not all 4 coins would go in each submission so as not to alert the graders to the same old submission showing up. We would each have to put half the potential submission costs up front to the dealer in question. The winner gets their submission/mailing costs back.
Has anyone here ever gotten the same grade 9 out of 10 times...or 10 of 10? And that would happen 90% of the time? I stand by my orig assessment that if TPG's were really 90% accurate, there'd be no grading arguments, no need for CAC, no need for Legend to only market PCGS CAC coins, and a much more overall, vibrant collector/investor market.
Did I read what JA wrote correctly? If so, CAC must be picking out the top range (the .5 to .9 coins) of each grade to put the bean on. Am I correct? If that is the case, I understand it. Previously, I ignorantly thought a CAC sticker indicated the grade on the label was correct.
A CAC green sticker for that grade (let's use MS64 as the example) means that CAC feels it falls within the range of MS64.4 to MS65.3. The irony here is that the coin could have big time up-grade potential and just get a green sticker. So a MS64 green sticker doesn't mean it's correctly graded....it could be a 65). The gold bean means MS65.4 to MS69.9 (no upper limit). The stickers do assist JA in what price he can offer for them. That's all they really should mean. The market has taken that concept further and placed premiums on them. Sharp dealer eyes look for those MS64 green beans which hold MS65.0-MS65.3 coins.
Thanks! It all made sense until this: "So a MS64 GREEN STICKER doesn't mean it's correctly graded (it could be a 63 OR LOWER, or even low end 65). Typo? A 64 bean can actually be a 63?
Comments
Conditions may be due to the crackout game.
I start with the assumption that all of these cats KNOW how to grade, therefore whatever happens is done on purpose.
If you take 20 commems, 10 PC65 and 10 NGC 65 and just show the coin images with no labels, slabs or whatever, most of the people could pick out out 9 of the 10 PCGS and 9 of the 10 NGC...that tells me there's a difference and my purchasing reflects that.
If the older holder coin has been off the market for a number of years, then no it probably did not lose value.
But if that old holder coin has made a few auction appearances, and is sill not upgraded or beaned, then you are probably looking at a "coffin"
That would make a great thread. Wish I had the computer talent to do that. Even 3 PCGS and 3 NGC commemoratives of the same type should be fun. However if we did 10 from each service I think the correct opinions would be lower UNLESS only the 4 and 5 star professional dealers (?) were allowed to play. That's what I would do, 20 coins - all Stone Mt or Columbian - any member can guess but ONLY the opinions of the top members on this sight would get tabulated. If they got 9 out of 10 correct, I would be a believer. Unfortunately, it appears that anyone can look out auction images.
That may be true, but why are there so few cac stickers on this site of gem or near gem Bust halves? http://www.rarecoinwholesalers.com/capped-bust-half-dollars-50
Maurice Rosen has published statistics on cac success with PCGS and NGC coins at near and above gem level and I did not see anything that looked lop-sided toward PCGS.
insider2
there is a easily seen difference
**
possibly even from the same TPG and most certainly often from one TPG to another. **the question is Why?
PROPERLY GRADED COINS
based on who's criteria?, a grey sheet? a red sheet etc.. or based on the best or largest TPG's criteria? It would not matter as long as all use the same.
can only be done if every TPG uses the same rules and norms!
Every consumer will then have a right of getting what it is said to be inside the slab.
IMO, the TPG's do not want such a method as it would eliminate the pricing and name graded competition.
The term properly graded coins can mean anything and is simply subject to ones personal interpretation.
we have 2 Canadian TPG's and their results are sometimes miles apart!
@YQQ Looks like you've made this too complicated:
Your first statement: "I have asked many consumers of the product TPG's produce to explain the difference between a MS66 and a MS65 graded coin. you guessed it...nobody was able to clearly describe it."
IMO, you are not asking the "right" people. Have you ever taken a grading seminar? I posted some tips to get you started. As you must know, the differences between the MS-64 to MS-66 grades can be very important with respect to value. I believe that many here (including me most of the time) can tell the difference. Perhaps that is why I think it is easy. I understand that was a foolish statement on my part. It is not an easy thing to do without study, mentors, and the experience of viewing X numbers of coins.
I agree with you that there will NEVER be standards that are followed by all including the TPGS's. So what? I have my own standards. That means I can disagree with a grade while at the same time understand it and AGREE that the coin is graded correctly by "market" and TPGS standards. My personal grading standards mean nothing to anyone because they don't count! The market keeps chugging along. Some coins are upgraded, some stay the same. I've heard it said that eventually everything will be maxed out or over graded.
What is a properly graded coin? When you reach a certain level of expertise, you will know. Additionally, the TPGS, CAC, and the majority of knowledgeable, experienced, professional numismatists will also know and agree. Nevertheless, some subjectivity may creep in, even among the majority. I doubt it will occur too much in the 64 - 66 range as too much money is often at stake. That's why a typical slider 84-S will not grade Unc while an identical common date coin with the same amount of friction will. That's also why some valuable coins will not be graded above MS-65 unless they look like MS-67's! That way, an MS-66 grade and the $$,$$$$ will be acceptable.
Hang in there and eventually it will become easy for you too.
Because there is a pretense that PCGS is more accurate in grading than ngc, or more strict in their standards.
However, I've seen a lot of overgrading by PCGS lately...
Who cares why pcgs graded coins tend to sell for more?
The real question is do you drink the kool aid?
Each coin stands on it's own merit. I had a coin sell for multiples of what I paid for it and it was in an NGC holder.
I've had coins submitted to PCGS that were good coins , which I lost money on even though they sold for more in the PCGS holder as compared to similar specimens ATS.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Insider2 ( and others)
well said...and much respected. But we are still at the same breaking point.
I have fared well for the last 50 years by sticking to my personal preference when buying: Buy the coin!!! Not the packaging!!!
When selling, It is "you decide on my pictures provided".
I use TPG's opinions only as a guide to decide what I am willing to pay.
I have submitted one and the same coin to a specific TPG in Canada 5 times, each time as raw.
the 5th time i got the grade I hoped for and I believe the coin deserves., compared with others.( but "others" is another can of worms.)
1st time EF 40
2nd time EF 40
3rd time EF 45
4th time EF 40
5th Time AU 50
what does that tell you????
Only the coins I wish to sell are going to a TPG.
presently I am confronted with a dilemma :
all Canadian coins I wish to sell, a Canadian TPG, or a US TPG??? coins are some doubles and triples I have, some rare and scarce, high grades and some varieties.
Any suggestions?
Thanks for the props. I'm not a dealer. I have heard that Canadian dealers/collectors tend to be cheap. I'm going to guess that your coins will bring more money in a U.S. Slab.
As for Canadian TPGS, one may be better than the other. We have some crooks slabbing coins down here. AU's called MS-66. The threads are full of cases as you wrote about. IMO, there is no way a coin can be graded XF-40 one time and AU-50 another by a reputable grader.
I will say this. I have graded a bunch of coins before as a personal test. Once they were in a 2X2 I would look at one or two and say to myself, that's over graded. In any case my XF never became an AU. I have had AU's drop to 45's.
That happened with graded comic books. And the older graded material generally sold for more money because they were distinguishable from the newer material due to the type of holder. But I've also seen grading companies go out of business because they loosened their standards to the point that people no longer trusted any of their material. If I ran a grading company, my standards would be a little bit tighter than everyone else so my slabs were always in demand. The converse is also true...loose standards equates to less demand from the general public.
My currency "Box of Ten" Thread: https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1045579/my-likely-slow-to-develop-box-of-ten#latest
This statement is not true, and I will give you a very practical example of why that is the case.
Let’s say you have an 1877 Indian cent that is in a “third world grading holder.” What I mean by that is that it is not in an NGC, PCGS, ICG, ANACS or SEGS holder. The coin is genuine, and it’s graded Very Fine, but all of the letters of “LIBERTY” have been worn off the coin.
You do your research and determine a fair wholesale price for an 1877 Indian Cent in Very Fine and even take a couple dollars off to sweeten the deal since it’s housed in a “third world grading holder.” Then you shop it around to dealers at a major coin convention.
The reaction from those dealers will be “no thank you” because the coin is not even close to the “proper” grading standards. You might have YOUR “personal interpretation” of what the grade is, but if that is not even close to what most everyone else’s interpretation is, you are not going to sell your item at the price that seems fair to you.
There are practical, somewhat informal, grading standards, and I’ve learned through the school of hard knocks that you had best learn what they are when you are buying and selling. If you don’t, you will lose a lot of money really fast, or you will have turn to deception to make up for the difference. I don’t know how they do it, but a few dealers have survived using deception, at least for while, but that’s not how I was raised or how I want to do business.
Do grading standards change? Yes, but the changes, mostly in a downward projection, must be done with some subtlety over a period of time. A residual effect is the mystique that some collectors apply to coins housed in “ratter holders,” “old NGC fatty holders,” and “old green label holders.” Some collectors think that ALL of the coins in those holders are accurately or conservatively graded, which is not always the case.
The point is there are standards, and most people have to pay attention to them.
I agree with @BillJones we need more not less competition to keep the prices in line and the grading honest. I have both NGC & PCGS coins. I don't see any differences. Loyalty should be to the practice, the quality, and the coin. If a ex-employee of either company was gracious enough to look at my coin, and said it was this or that, I would believe them and mark it that way on my slip and put it away for safe keeping. I like graded coins, but sometimes the boxes and original display are way cooler then the blah blah slab. I have most Raw coins from the Mints.
Best place to buy !
Bronze Associate member
@stevereecy said: "If I ran a grading company, my standards would be a little bit tighter than everyone else so my slabs were always in demand."
It's lucky you don't!
If you were too tight, the only business you would get would be from people who don't know how to grade and who like other things about your company. Eventually, you would go out of business.
The point of a TPGS is to do their best to "get it right" for all concerned: the coin, the submitter, and the future buyer. Please them all, and you can retire.
The answer is very obvious. Feel free to PM me. And it's not just Bust halves either.
Great comment by Shorecoll above that you can generally tell which holder a coin is in by the grade assigned and the "look" of the coin. It probably shouldn't be the case....but it certainly is. I find myself doing that with choice/gem bust, seated and Barber MS type coins....and being right about 2/3 or more of the time.
^^^^^^^^
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Wow, I have a lot to learn. Would one of you care to give us some of the things you look for on a commemorative coin that reveal the TPGS?
.> @CaptHenway said:
You had me confused at first!
To answer the question, it would depend mostly on whether the coin will upgrade based on the new "standard".
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Depth of luster, flashy or dullish surfaces, number and location of marks, type of toning esp. the type that mutes the luster or is unattractive for the grade, etc. In the period of 1998 to 2008 I felt that NGC MS64-67 seated and bust coins were generally or on average 1/3 of a grade weaker than PCGS. Always exceptions though. You could have 1-2 pt. differences, and even sometimes where the NGC coin was clearly nicer. But, this is about averages.
So PCGS coins tend to be:
Deeper luster, flashy, less interested in marks.
The only difference I ever hear of was that at one time NGC was rough on darkly toned coins.
Dear all, its really simple:
PCGS coins are 90% about correctly graded or undergraded and 10% overgraded (mostly 1 grade) and there almost never are nogrades.
NGC coins are 90% overgraded (in some cases 2 grades or more), 5% they are probably nogrades and 5% are ok graded.
Thats from what I saw the last 20 years.
Buying a NGC coin to me is like buying a raw coin with a certificate its not counterfied.
I have done a great deal of comparisons between the two grading services
Sometimes when determining values for specific grades, I would search on Heritage and other sites for all coins of a specific grade. Looked at the coins, see the slabs, determine what the average is, seeing if the coin looks nicer, does the price
reflect the condition and eye appeal
Found on average, PCGS coins for the same grade realized a higher value.
But found for a small percentage of coins, NGC coins realized more. It made no rhyme or reason why as both coins appeared the same. Sometimes it might reflect how many are in that auction of that date, mm, and grade.
IMO thought, part of the unseen or unmeasurable factor is the buyer, what are they willing to pay, when a specific
coin they are seeking is available. Also, I am sure most of use have been to auctions, you want something, how much
are you willing to push the limit when bidding, sometimes passion overtakes logic.
If the same coin (date, mm, condition) are in NGC and PCGS holders, if a big diff, then I will buy the NGC as I am buying
the coin, not the slab.
On why the prices might be different, just speculating
Perhaps it is something as basic as the holder, PCGS IMO has a nicer holder, slightly more aesthetic, compared to
a simple white holder.
Perhaps there is a higher confidence level on the grading standards, even though IMO, both have been changing
grading standards over the years, perhaps in part due to different graders passing through there.
Perhaps in part it is due to PCGS's convincing the dealers to use their product, they have PCGS day and sponsored events.
I believe I remember that PCGS had more guarantees, not on grade, but on a coin being genuine.
Core problem is conception, if you believe your coins will bring more money in a specific type of holder, you tend to
lean that way. If most collectors believe this, that PCGS holders will bring more, how would they change that?
I know I have many of my die varieties slabbed by ANACS, which I believe will bring less than either of the other two.
IMO its all perspective
Grading of course is just an opinion
I have seen certified coins that were proofs that were slabbed not a proofs and vice versa, grading standards
all over the place, the same coin being sent in multiple times and receiving different grades. Don't know how many times
I have seen a coin go from AU58 to MS63.
Coins are normally viewed for a period of 10 seconds, 5 seconds on each side under a 5x loop.
Sometimes, certain attributes are graded higher by a service, for example, I believe NGC grades higher on toning,
maybe this is because they find this to contribute more to the eye appeal. I also have seen coins graded in specific
series graded better by a service. Most likely reflects the graders working there and the experience with that series.
Kevin
Very informative. Your opinion would give PCGS a great business model. I like the breakdown by percentages. Let's see what % the other members who respond choose.
NGC was NEVER tougher on darker coins than PCGS. Just the opposite. NGC had a rep in the 1988-1989 market where they would grade deeply toned type coins with muted luster as MS65. And that stuck. I routinely looked for dullish PCGS MS63/64 bust and seated coins with clean surfaces....and sent them back to NGC where they often came out a grade higher. And in a sight-unseen market it was instant money. They gave too much emphasis to mark free surfaces vs. bold luster/eye appeal.
The only time in NGC history that I would say they were "rough" across the board was the first 6 months they were open in 1987-1988 when they were ultra-conservative. Everything I originally submitted very early on had to go back again. And in nearly every case, I got a higher grade 2nd time around. By mid-1988 it was all sorted out though.
From what I've seen and heard from long term dealers who have been authorized members since the 80s the grade inflation is true of both major "money" grade services. Like an MA dealer who showed me images of a group of gold coins that came out of PCGS significantly higher than he had graded them according to cac standards or even tighter. A 66+ he was able to sell for huge money.
Grade inflation is a cultural reality, as in books on the college experience where the students are the "customers" and obviously want the highest passing grades, Harvard confers "cum laude" and above honors to the overwhelming majority of students. https://www.quora.com/Is-Harvard-the-only-university-where-90-graduate-with-honors-cum-laude-or-better Paying consumers appear to be calling the shots instead of the standard bearers.
That's a pretty accurate definition of "NGC holder bias." As good as any I've ever seen. Dealer Larry Whitlow absolutely despised NGC coins. Any time I showed him a great coin in an NGC holder, we'd come close to physical blows....lol. I stopped showing him those coins....lol. He hated my 1858-0 NGC MS66 dime back in 2003. Too dark, too many hits, weak luster. That coin graded MS65 back in 1988 when I first submitted it. Today? It's PCGS MS66+ CAC...the highest at PCGS and a contender as finest known. 3 grades in 28 years...where's the 90% accuracy?
There's never been a TPG that's 90% consistent or accurate. And likewise never been one 90% inaccurate (ie outside of PCGS, NGC, ANACS, Hallmark, and early ICG, PCI). My own numbers place the big 2 in the 50-75% range at any particular time....though most of the time in the 65-75% range. Anything less than 65% to me is just inappropriate considering the best graders out there on their own are 75%-85% accurate. 3 graders at 80% accuracy "should" net out at over 90% net....unfortunately mathematical models don't apply to subjective grading. 90% TPG accuracy could be done on some coins....but it would require more graders, and more time per coin. In other words, it would cost a lot more. If you're willing to spend $100 per economy grading submission (and $250 for express) I think we could see 90%. With improved accuracy comes a price.
My 30 yrs of experience with the TPG's bears no relation to what PCC stated above. And it doesn't change over the last 10 yrs, middle 10 years, or first 10 yrs. Heck, even in 1987-1990 when the TPG's where as good as they ever were utilizing some of the best dealers in the world as part time graders, there was an active arbitrage market in upgrading the mistakes. Even then I'd figure on any 10 coin submission to either service, 6-7 coins come back as expected, 2-3 lower, and 1 higher. Such a thing would (or could) never happen if they were 90% accurate. There would be no need for CAC if they were 90% accurate. If there was 90% accuracy, the grading problem would be solved and we'd have nothing to discuss. Submissions to the TPG's would have dried up 10 years ago with 90% accuracy. They've have had to look for something else to fill their time. If the TPG's (any one of them) were 90% accurate or inaccurate, CAC would be stickering or not stickering 90% of what comes in the door.....clearly that's NOT the case....except for maybe MS65 and higher $20 Saints/Libs. where CAC has decided on a 3-6% sticker rate, possibly to keep potentially vast supplies on the reasonable side.
A 90% accuracy rate would bite deeply into the "resubmission" market, reducing revenues. A 90% accuracy would suggest you need to submit on average 9 more times to get the higher/lower grade. That's far different than getting different grades in every 2-4 submissions (ie the norm)....which is why the regrade market flourishes. Only 1 time in my career have I had a coin come back the same grade 4X-5X. And that was a 64++ coin that eventually did make 65 for a future owner. The fact that we have gradeflation over the past 30 yrs suggests that 50-90% of the grades have changed (mostly for the higher) over that period. How is that 90% accuracy? Maybe you can get 90% accuracy from 1 month to the next one. But over years? Nope. Grading allowances change every few years. Graders cycle through the services too. Too many variables for 90% in anything. We could certainly pick some random choice/gem MS seated and bust coins from the market and submit them up to 10X each to prove/disprove PCC's theory. But if we are covering the past 10-20 yrs, it's already common knowledge that 90% accuracy did not occur. If I had to pick a number from 1987 to date.....I'd say 65-80% of the grades have changed. The fact that many concede to a 50% resubmission rate at the TPG's over 30 years, suggests at best a 50% accuracy rate.
Makes sense that 90% is way too high.
You have convinced me; but what about 88% - 85% at the least? Otherwise, what is the point? Are all of you throwing money down a rat hole in a big scam? Hummm, got me thinking. Shouldn't most coins graded by the top two services rate a green bean?
Well maybe there is one that is 90% consistent over time.
I believe Briggs SEGS is pretty consistent
But also, Briggs is the primary grader there I believe,
IMO, if you have the same people, you are more likely to produce the same results over time,
not all the time, but a higher percentage as compared to if different individuals who have different experiences and
knowledge.
Kevin
NGC may be largest to date by volume, but not in revenue nor in value of the coins graded. NGC does more modern bullion coins with lower average ticket price. Those posted volumes are over the last 30 years as well, not in the last year. I'd bet in the last year PCGS had more volume, more revenue, and more profit
An 85% rate would still (imo) be considered "solving the grading problem" and hence little need to resubmit coins. Are you gonna resubmit the same coin 8.5X for a shot at the higher grade you think it could get? No. So at what level will the typical rank and file of the hobby (dealers and collectors) play the resubmission game? How about where the grade can change at least once in every 3 to 4 submissions? I've played that game. I would not play the 7X to 10X game though. I leave that to the super pro's.
If SEGS is 90% accurate, it's only to repeating their own standard. No way would SEGS and PCGS ever be in 90% agreement on a wide spectrum of US coins. If that was the true, SEGS would currently be in the #2 slot....not NGC. Who needs PCGS if SEGS is 90% accurate? What really matters is what % does SEGS agree with PCGS/NGC. I could venture a number but...no thanks.
JA at CAC "might" be 90% accurate to his own opinion. But I think that would be stretching things. I seriously doubt if I took 10 CAC'd MS65 Saints and then mixed them up with 90 nice looking, non-CAC'd specimens that they could pick out all 10. I'd be surprised if they could pick out half of them. I think any top professional is repeatable to about an 80-85% rate. 90-95% is really stretching reality. I wonder what Mr. Eureka, CNNCoins, NJCoincrank, Col. Jessup would say on this? You can make a lot of money in the coin market being 65-75% accurate to PCGS/NGC standards. You don't need to be 90%.
NGC developed a bad habit back then of grading silver coins with dark toning that looked like they at been AT'd. That's marked the first time that NGC slipped behind PCGS. It was noted on the Blue Sheet where PCGS forged ahead on that price guide.
Any time a grading service/dealership has one main grader, the standards will stay close. That is what the TPGS finalizer is for. They are to hold the company standard. I have heard that for some submitters the owner of the company grades the box.
Maybe one day I can sell my NGC holders to DRUNNER as collectables. Im really going to score!
EAC 6024
Ok, I think the problem may be the pressure to push coins through the system. I'll bet any of you experienced posters could reach 90%+ agreement with each other on a coin if you were allowed to study it using magnification. Done, next coin. Same thing and done. Ok, you took 2 minutes or less on each coin. The reason I say this is I have witnessed this done by students in grading classes.
While we as a group of students can get the technical grade "correct" 90+% or guess the TPGS grade on common dollars at a surprising rate, throw in a rarity or early type coin and all bets are off. You guys with experience don't have this problem.
So, If a bunch of you 4 star and 5 star members could not beat us kids when a TPGS slab (covered grade) is examined with magnification and no time limit - I'd be shocked!
So, speed kills accuracy. Agree?
If we took a trip back to 1988/1989 I'd probably say yes. JA was a primary player in NGC back then. I would hope he'd agree with the majority of coins in PCGS/NGC holders at that time as he was an orig member of each firm.
Today? No. What niche or service would CAC be carving out if they agreed with the majority of what was coming out of the TPG's? How would they stay in business if they generally agreed? Why would they have even have started such a business in the first place? What was the market need? We routinely discussed TPG grading around here in 2004-2007 and that it was no longer at 1990-1995 levels. The gist of that was don't be holding the weak coins when the market eventually tanked (it did in late 2008/early 2009).
That's my point. There should be no need for CAC. The fact that it exists, and the fact that most PCGS and NGC coins don't have the bean can only mean this:
Brian allow me to tack this on......mark
From JA
Absolutely not. There are many coins that are certified accurately for their grade. Unfortunately, it is an inescapable reality that many are at the lower end of the quality range for the assigned grade. CAC’s rejection of a coin does not necessarily mean that CAC believes the coin has been over-graded. It simply means that there are other coins with CAC stickers that are of higher quality for the grade. CAC will eventually reject tens of thousands of accurately graded coins. Many of these rejected coins will be acceptable to numerous dealers and collectors and will continue to be available in the marketplace. For quality-conscious collectors and dealers, a coin with a CAC sticker will have significant meaning.
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I completely disagree, but I can also see how you might come to that conclusion. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're basing your opinion based mostly on very high high grade and high-powered coins that have come to market over the years. The problem with that approach, as I explained earlier in the thread, is that people have a great incentive to cross "accurately graded" coins from NGC to PCGS. And the more expensive the coin, the more that is true.
I think that if you saw everything that came back from both services, including all of the coins that was later cracked out or crossed over, you would have an extraordinarily different opinion of the two services. Then again, I can see how you might consider that irrelevant for your purposes, since you only get to buy what you get to see.
All of which is not to say that there have not been times when NGC was looser than PCGS. But there have also been times when the opposite was true.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Grading is subjective. Perhaps that's why ONE standard cannot be adopted. Einstein was onto something , as the theory of relativity goes. Sheldon was onto something as the theory of "condition" and "rarity" go. It's not as complex as some make it out to be. (in MY opinion, which is largely disregarded, tyvm )
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Mark, I would call that legalese to ensure CAC keeps clear of litigation issues from the TPG's. No way do all 3 of them want to end up in the courts trying to debate/defend "over-grading" when it will lead to no good out comes for our hobby. CAC isn't ever going to do that, even if true. We've been there before with Accugrade and others and there are no winners. JA has no problem identifying under-graded coins with a "gold" bean. He could do the same for over-graded coins with a "brown" bean. Since that leads to no positive outcomes....it's not going to happen. CAC looks at coins that are over-graded and includes them with the low end/appropriately graded/unstickered coins. CAC dodges the controversy by stating that the lack of a sticker doesn't mean a coin is over-graded.....though it certainly could be true. If there wasn't a relatively "too high" % of over-graded/low end coins in holders, there would be no need for CAC. We wouldn't want to pay for their services.
I'll take it a step further, if we all really believed there were no worse than low-end coins in holders, there would also be no need for CAC. A,B,C coins would be enough to define the market and handle the risk. Thing is, we know we have D coins.....even F's. In the pre-2008 market, a typical low end C, D, F, coin might fetch 10-15% less than a solid coin. Today, it's more like 30-50%. Low end coins we could all handle w/o CAC. Remember all those solid to higher end 64 coins that became 65's in 2004-2008? Are those C coins or really D, F coins? In my mind, any 64 coin that jumped to 65 after numerous attempts isn't a C coin....it's a mid-grade...or a D, F coin.
The market has (imo) interpreted CAC's statement to mean the PCGS coins w/o stickers are probably graded correctly. For NGC coins w/o stickers, they are "perceived" or assumed to be in the wrong grade, and usually realize the same money as PCGS stickered coins at a grade lower (ie an NGC 66 w/o bean will realize about what a PCGS 65/65+ coin might fetch). It really doesn't matter what JA/CAC have stated....the market has made the decision on its own, whether rightly or wrongly. That's all that matters. By not identifying the "brown" beans directly, the market has gone and done it (whether accurately or not). A CAC coin is perceived to be "good." If "not CAC'd," the market has twisted it to mean "not good." Markets fill in meanings where holes exist.
My understanding is that top graders are typically in the range of 85% consistent to the TPG standards.
Teams of graders can be even more accurate, because obvious mistakes get weeded out by the team.
PCGS really is probably 90%+ consistent to their own standard. NGC is probably about the same.
But with crackouts, crossovers, and the simple act of solid coins finding good homes, the coins remaining in the market look progressively worse as time goes by. Especially for high-powered coins, and even more so for high-powered NGC coins.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Here are three big NGC coins that I own. Think that all of them are credible and worth the money I paid for them. Some NGC graded coins are properly graded and don't deserve the condemnation that some people lay on the brand.
This is graded MS-62. I paid MS-60 to 61 money for it.
This is graded MS-65, which I think is right on the money.
And this is graded MS-64, CAC. This is nicer than the PCGS octagonal piece I have in the same grade.
I've submitted to both services. I hold them in high esteem, Most everything on my website was submitted by me.
And that's not to toot my horn, rather to explain the "reason" from my perspective. I trust PCGS just a bit more.
For some, the TPG is merely a corridor for higher profits.
For me, it's a Hallway to honing my own skills.
``https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
@Justacommeman said: Brian allow me to tack this on......mark
From JA
Absolutely not. There are many coins that are certified accurately for their grade. Unfortunately, it is an inescapable reality that many are at the lower end of the quality range for the assigned grade. CAC’s rejection of a coin does not necessarily mean that CAC believes the coin has been over-graded. It simply means that there are other coins with CAC stickers that are of higher quality for the grade. CAC will eventually reject tens of thousands of accurately graded coins. Many of these rejected coins will be acceptable to numerous dealers and collectors and will continue to be available in the marketplace. For quality-conscious collectors and dealers, a coin with a CAC sticker will have significant meaning.
OK, I just learned something. NOTE: I'm not writing about OVER GRADING in this post. So...
This is what I'm reading: If I send a PCGS coin graded MS-64 which is NOT OVERGRADED and in CAC's opinion is a MS-64.2. THE COIN WILL NOT GET A BEAN. If another coin graded by PCGS is an MS-64.8, it will likely get a bean.
If CAC makes a "market" in coins with a bean, this makes perfect business sense.
Thus, all coins that are actually are MS-64's may not be '64's in CAC's eyes. Did I read what JA wrote correctly? If so, CAC must be picking out the top range (the .5 to .9 coins) of each grade to put the bean on. Am I correct? If that is the case, I understand it. Previously, I ignorantly thought a CAC sticker indicated the grade on the label was correct.
Oh, my...how stupid. Thanks for the education and posting the JA explanation of CAC's practices. I told all of you and @Justacommeman that I know absolutely nothing about the commercial coin market. Do you believe me now?
Insider2 You must have a record for disagrees !
@Insider2
That's pretty much how I understand it
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I only look at what coins I've submitted over and over again to the TPG's as possible examples of consistency. I cannot even begin to imagine getting the same grade 9 out of 10 times on ANY coin I submit....let alone 90% of them.
Andy, if I pick out 4 random MS63-66 seated type coins, and submit them all up to 10X to PCGS, you are convinced that they will each grade the same 9/10 times? Will you pay all my grading fees if you are wrong? I will hand off the 4 coins to a trusted 3rd party dealer who will send the coins in and tabulate the results. After each event the coins will be cracked out, labels and submission forms saved, and repeated up to 10X. As soon a coin gets a different grade before the 10th time, that coin is processed out as a failure. Not all 4 coins would go in each submission so as not to alert the graders to the same old submission showing up. We would each have to put half the potential submission costs up front to the dealer in question. The winner gets their submission/mailing costs back.
Has anyone here ever gotten the same grade 9 out of 10 times...or 10 of 10? And that would happen 90% of the time? I stand by my orig assessment that if TPG's were really 90% accurate, there'd be no grading arguments, no need for CAC, no need for Legend to only market PCGS CAC coins, and a much more overall, vibrant collector/investor market.
@1940coupe said: "Insider2 You must have a record for disagrees !"
I'm sure it will never be duplicated! I have a mentally challenged female minion helping me become a notorious member in my own mind...LOL.
A CAC green sticker for that grade (let's use MS64 as the example) means that CAC feels it falls within the range of MS64.4 to MS65.3. The irony here is that the coin could have big time up-grade potential and just get a green sticker. So a MS64 green sticker doesn't mean it's correctly graded....it could be a 65). The gold bean means MS65.4 to MS69.9 (no upper limit). The stickers do assist JA in what price he can offer for them. That's all they really should mean. The market has taken that concept further and placed premiums on them. Sharp dealer eyes look for those MS64 green beans which hold MS65.0-MS65.3 coins.
Thanks! It all made sense until this: "So a MS64 GREEN STICKER doesn't mean it's correctly graded (it could be a 63 OR LOWER, or even low end 65). Typo? A 64 bean can actually be a 63?