@Insider2 said:
Thanks! It all made sense until this: "So a MS64 GREEN STICKER doesn't mean it's correctly graded (it could be a 63 OR LOWER, or even low end 65). Typo? A 64 bean can actually be a 63?
Sorry, I mis-typed. Now edited and corrected. You are correct. I meant that not stickering a 64 coin, held no bounds on how low it could be. Just like a gold bean puts no upper boundaries on the potential grade. Mea Culpa.
You can imagine all those MS61-MS64 coins out there with "some" rub. CAC may not sticker those, in any MS grade. They could see a MS64 coin as a technical AU58. That we will never know as the result of a non-sticker event.
And all of this CAC hairslitting about 64.2s and 64.7s is a bunch of fiction, but I'm not going to get pulled into another CAC chicken fight. Those who swear by it can keep swearing, I'll buy what I like. If there is a sticker on it, fine, but I'm can't limit myself to what one man likes. If I did that, I'd never able to buy much of anything in the areas where I collect.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Green sticker: CAC sees the coin as either solid for the grade, high end for the grade, or low end for next grade up. This suggests they can break down the MS grade structure in approx 1/3 pt increments. Yours or my mileage may vary. 1/3 increments often don't come into play when the coin is priced right. They call those no brainers....or....what some dealers like to call "fresh" deals. Such coins would never last long on the bourse floor.
@1940coupe asked: "Insider2 You must have a record for disagrees !"
I replied: "I'm sure it will never be duplicated! I have a mentally challenged female minion helping me become a notorious member in my own mind...LOL."
@1940coupe posted: "1.4k disagrees ? I am surprised the PCGS Moderator has not stopped this ?"
LOL, then what would the poor child do for entertainment, suck her thumb? I don't want anything to happen to her, she will either grow up and learn something here or get a life.
If I were a moderator, I should have her go back to each the 1.4k posts to write what she disagreed with. If she cannot for a particular post, she would erase the disagree and give me a LOL instead (they don't count as points that I would not deserve) then write what she learned about numismatics from actually reading the entire thread. That should keep her busy for a long time + make her a more informed collector.
I stand by my 90% estimate as an average. For white 81-S dollars and generic gold, 93% might be a better guess. For Bust Halves, 80% might be the number. For colonials, 70%. But 90% sounds like a good average.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
PCGS coins are 90% about correctly graded or undergraded and 10% overgraded (mostly 1 grade) and there almost never are nogrades.
NGC coins are 90% overgraded (in some cases 2 grades or more), 5% they are probably nogrades and 5% are ok graded.
Thats from what I saw the last 20 years.
Buying a NGC coin to me is like buying a raw coin with a certificate its not countrified.
I completely disagree, but I can also see how you might come to that conclusion. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're basing your opinion based mostly on very high high grade and high-powered coins that have come to market over the years. The problem with that approach, as I explained earlier in the thread, is that people have a great incentive to cross "accurately graded" coins from NGC to PCGS. And the more expensive the coin, the more that is true.
I think that if you saw everything that came back from both services, including all of the coins that was later cracked out or crossed over, you would have an extraordinarily different opinion of the two services. Then again, I can see how you might consider that irrelevant for your purposes, since you only get to buy what you get to see.
All of which is not to say that there have not been times when NGC was looser than PCGS. But there have also been times when the opposite was true.
The percentages might be wrong or not, its just a subjective impression. What I do know is that I have seen many coins in NGC holders that are completely off, high grades 2 to 3 grades and lower grades up to 20 grades. While it also happens sometimes to PCGS it seems to happen to NGC much more often, its basically more common to be off than accurate. I am referring here to more expensive coins, 30.000 USD or more.
@BillJones said:
Here are three big NGC coins that I own. Think that all of them are credible and worth the money I paid for them. Some NGC graded coins are properly graded and don't deserve the condemnation that some people lay on the brand.
This is graded MS-62. I paid MS-60 to 61 money for it.
This is graded MS-65, which I think is right on the money.
And this is graded MS-64, CAC. This is nicer than the PCGS octagonal piece I have in the same grade.
They look like they should cross = properly graded. I also once had a 1823 half eagle that was NGC 65 CAC and a wonderful coin and they refused to cross it but later did. It didnt harm the coin, it brought full money as NGC 65 CAC when auctioned.
What I actually see more and more, and especially at Pogue this was the case, is that nice coins properly graded, no matter if PCGS or NGC, bring full money and overgraded coins, no matter if PCGS or NGC, bring much less money.
Look at the two 1813 PCGS 66 half eagles at Pogue as an example.
I have a question about the 1796 coin. Now actually two questions, No three... It is graded MS-62; yet the buyer only paid MS-60 to 61 money for it. Good deal on a nice coin!
However... lets pretend I am qualified to be in an advanced coin grading class with dozens of expert instructors (that's all of you). Now my questions:
I've always heard there is no Santa Clause in numismatics. So why would a coin graded MS-62 by a top TPGS be sold for MS-60 to 61 money? Did the dealer need cash?
Does this mean that this NGC coin is overgraded?
IMHO, I believe the coin is correctly graded as a modern "commercial" MS-61 or 62. However, I have a grading guide where Mr. Bowers explained that many coins that were formerly graded AU are now graded Mint state. Is this one of them?
Does anyone here see the change of color from friction wear on the high points of this coin?
Oh, and please keep you comments focused on the coin and my questions if you post. The owner of this coin is a valued member here and I am not attacking his taste, eyesight, collecting interests, knowledge etc. He was very professional and kindly took the time to reply to a PM I sent him.
I sent a PM to Insider to try to explain why my coin is an MS-60 or 61 by comparing it to a couple of better pieces. It was once in an NGC MS-61 holder. Perhaps I should make that PM public.
Although NGC has somewhat lower standards, I've noted that they do tend tighten up on big coins. Therefore you will see similar auction results where the buyers in the know are buying the coin and not the holder.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
PCGS coins are 90% about correctly graded or undergraded and 10% overgraded (mostly 1 grade) and there almost never are nogrades.
NGC coins are 90% overgraded (in some cases 2 grades or more), 5% they are probably nogrades and 5% are ok graded.
Thats from what I saw the last 20 years.
Buying a NGC coin to me is like buying a raw coin with a certificate its not countrified.
I completely disagree, but I can also see how you might come to that conclusion. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're basing your opinion based mostly on very high high grade and high-powered coins that have come to market over the years. The problem with that approach, as I explained earlier in the thread, is that people have a great incentive to cross "accurately graded" coins from NGC to PCGS. And the more expensive the coin, the more that is true.
I think that if you saw everything that came back from both services, including all of the coins that was later cracked out or crossed over, you would have an extraordinarily different opinion of the two services. Then again, I can see how you might consider that irrelevant for your purposes, since you only get to buy what you get to see.
All of which is not to say that there have not been times when NGC was looser than PCGS. But there have also been times when the opposite was true.
The percentages might be wrong or not, its just a subjective impression. What I do know is that I have seen many coins in NGC holders that are completely off, high grades 2 to 3 grades and lower grades up to 20 grades. While it also happens sometimes to PCGS it seems to happen to NGC much more often, its basically more common to be off than accurate. I am referring here to more expensive coins, 30.000 USD or more.
I agree completely, but you seem to be missing my point. At your price level, "accurately" graded coins are quickly removed from NGC holders. The only coins you get to see are the ones that won't cross.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
PCGS coins are 90% about correctly graded or undergraded and 10% overgraded (mostly 1 grade) and there almost never are nogrades.
NGC coins are 90% overgraded (in some cases 2 grades or more), 5% they are probably nogrades and 5% are ok graded.
Thats from what I saw the last 20 years.
Buying a NGC coin to me is like buying a raw coin with a certificate its not countrified.
I completely disagree, but I can also see how you might come to that conclusion. Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're basing your opinion based mostly on very high high grade and high-powered coins that have come to market over the years. The problem with that approach, as I explained earlier in the thread, is that people have a great incentive to cross "accurately graded" coins from NGC to PCGS. And the more expensive the coin, the more that is true.
I think that if you saw everything that came back from both services, including all of the coins that was later cracked out or crossed over, you would have an extraordinarily different opinion of the two services. Then again, I can see how you might consider that irrelevant for your purposes, since you only get to buy what you get to see.
All of which is not to say that there have not been times when NGC was looser than PCGS. But there have also been times when the opposite was true.
The percentages might be wrong or not, its just a subjective impression. What I do know is that I have seen many coins in NGC holders that are completely off, high grades 2 to 3 grades and lower grades up to 20 grades. While it also happens sometimes to PCGS it seems to happen to NGC much more often, its basically more common to be off than accurate. I am referring here to more expensive coins, 30.000 USD or more.
I agree completely, but you seem to be missing my point. At your price level, "accurately" graded coins are quickly removed from NGC holders. The only coins you get to see are the ones that won't cross.
The NGC brand gets too much bad press, because of the coins that are left over that failed to cross to PCGS. Many "good" NGC coins, of which there are many, get crossed.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
@BigMoose said:
Insider, I will bet that you have submitted thousands of coins to the services. Who do you think you are bull$hitting? And you already know the answer--PCGS coins are generally much nicer for the grade than NGC coins of the same grade. It has to do with different standards between the two services. And, those NGC coins that are really nice for the grade usually eventually end up in PCGS holders.
This is the primary reason pops for the rare coins are overstated
@coinhack said:
As it has been stated throughout this thread, PCGS may be the best and coins in their holders may sell for the most money but NGC is still the largest grading service.
NGC 37 million plus
PCGS 36 million plus
I wonder just how much of that spread is caused by dealers cracking PCGS coins out and sending them to NGC for a few more points.
Despite the obvious grading differences between PCGS and NGC, my experiences with choice/gem type suggests they agree on about 2 out of every 3 coins. I don't think it's as bad as 1 out of 2...or as high as 3 out of 4. Certainly all the crack outs skew the numbers remaining on the bourse floor and auctions. It can't be 90/10...or 10/90...not even close. Unless you've been the original submitter for raw coins being tried at both services numerous times, you have no personal experience with how a coin ended up in the holder it's in. When I see some of my old coins in current holders, I know what they graded in 1988, in 1998, and in 2008. 10 yrs seems to be about the typical re-grading cycle.
Consider a coin that PCGS might grade MS 64, 63, 64, 64, 64, 64. Then NGC grades it 64, 64, 65, 64, 64, 65. The services agree on 4/6 times. Yet all we see in the end is the over-graded MS65. The real grade of the coin is probably solid 64. NGC gets grief for the last grade, not their majority grade. Ideally, a coin should carry ALL of its previous grading events with it. Then let the market determine what those all mean to the price. It still comes down to the fact that a single grading event usually can't determine a coin's true value.
@roadrunner said: "Ideally, a coin should carry ALL of its previous grading events with it. Then let the market determine what those all mean to the price. It still comes down to the fact that a single grading event usually can't determine a coin's true value. "
While this is certainly true - all grades shown as is allowed for a TPGS finalizer - It will never happen. However, these days with the Internet sleuths, I'm surprised at how many of the upgrades are shown in their previous holder.
Why doesn't this thread just go POOF, to many negative posts about other TPG services.
OTOH, the members that know what they are talking about...KNOW what they are talking about!
Comments
Sorry, I mis-typed. Now edited and corrected. You are correct. I meant that not stickering a 64 coin, held no bounds on how low it could be. Just like a gold bean puts no upper boundaries on the potential grade. Mea Culpa.
You can imagine all those MS61-MS64 coins out there with "some" rub. CAC may not sticker those, in any MS grade. They could see a MS64 coin as a technical AU58. That we will never know as the result of a non-sticker event.
Don't let this talk of decimalized grades scare you. They're used more to explain a general concept than to actually pinpoint a micro-grade.
.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
And all of this CAC hairslitting about 64.2s and 64.7s is a bunch of fiction, but I'm not going to get pulled into another CAC chicken fight. Those who swear by it can keep swearing, I'll buy what I like. If there is a sticker on it, fine, but I'm can't limit myself to what one man likes. If I did that, I'd never able to buy much of anything in the areas where I collect.
Green sticker: CAC sees the coin as either solid for the grade, high end for the grade, or low end for next grade up. This suggests they can break down the MS grade structure in approx 1/3 pt increments. Yours or my mileage may vary. 1/3 increments often don't come into play when the coin is priced right. They call those no brainers....or....what some dealers like to call "fresh" deals. Such coins would never last long on the bourse floor.
@BillJones
I agree with you except I believe you are being modest. I'll bet if pressed, you could decimal grade the type of coins you collect.
1.4k disagrees ? I am surprised the PCGS Moderator has not stopped this ?
@1940coupe asked: "Insider2 You must have a record for disagrees !"
I replied: "I'm sure it will never be duplicated! I have a mentally challenged female minion helping me become a notorious member in my own mind...LOL."
@1940coupe posted: "1.4k disagrees ? I am surprised the PCGS Moderator has not stopped this ?"
LOL, then what would the poor child do for entertainment, suck her thumb?
I don't want anything to happen to her, she will either grow up and learn something here or get a life.
If I were a moderator, I should have her go back to each the 1.4k posts to write what she disagreed with. If she cannot for a particular post, she would erase the disagree and give me a LOL instead (they don't count as points that I would not deserve) then write what she learned about numismatics from actually reading the entire thread. That should keep her busy for a long time + make her a more informed collector.
I stand by my 90% estimate as an average. For white 81-S dollars and generic gold, 93% might be a better guess. For Bust Halves, 80% might be the number. For colonials, 70%. But 90% sounds like a good average.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I dont agree are disagree with you but this should not be allowed
The percentages might be wrong or not, its just a subjective impression. What I do know is that I have seen many coins in NGC holders that are completely off, high grades 2 to 3 grades and lower grades up to 20 grades. While it also happens sometimes to PCGS it seems to happen to NGC much more often, its basically more common to be off than accurate. I am referring here to more expensive coins, 30.000 USD or more.
They look like they should cross = properly graded. I also once had a 1823 half eagle that was NGC 65 CAC and a wonderful coin and they refused to cross it but later did. It didnt harm the coin, it brought full money as NGC 65 CAC when auctioned.
What I actually see more and more, and especially at Pogue this was the case, is that nice coins properly graded, no matter if PCGS or NGC, bring full money and overgraded coins, no matter if PCGS or NGC, bring much less money.
Look at the two 1813 PCGS 66 half eagles at Pogue as an example.
@1940coupe said: "I don't agree or disagree with you but this should not be allowed."
IMO, it is quite harmless. Hopefully she is reading the threads and learning something.
Ding dong, ding dong school is in.
I have a question about the 1796 coin. Now actually two questions, No three... It is graded MS-62; yet the buyer only paid MS-60 to 61 money for it. Good deal on a nice coin!
However... lets pretend I am qualified to be in an advanced coin grading class with dozens of expert instructors (that's all of you). Now my questions:
Oh, and please keep you comments focused on the coin and my questions if you post. The owner of this coin is a valued member here and I am not attacking his taste, eyesight, collecting interests, knowledge etc. He was very professional and kindly took the time to reply to a PM I sent him.
I sent a PM to Insider to try to explain why my coin is an MS-60 or 61 by comparing it to a couple of better pieces. It was once in an NGC MS-61 holder. Perhaps I should make that PM public.
Although NGC has somewhat lower standards, I've noted that they do tend tighten up on big coins. Therefore you will see similar auction results where the buyers in the know are buying the coin and not the holder.
I agree completely, but you seem to be missing my point. At your price level, "accurately" graded coins are quickly removed from NGC holders. The only coins you get to see are the ones that won't cross.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
The NGC brand gets too much bad press, because of the coins that are left over that failed to cross to PCGS. Many "good" NGC coins, of which there are many, get crossed.
This is the primary reason pops for the rare coins are overstated
I wonder just how much of that spread is caused by dealers cracking PCGS coins out and sending them to NGC for a few more points.
Crackouts go both ways with the big two. I've even seen PCGS and NGC slabs being submitted to ICG for crossover service.
Despite the obvious grading differences between PCGS and NGC, my experiences with choice/gem type suggests they agree on about 2 out of every 3 coins. I don't think it's as bad as 1 out of 2...or as high as 3 out of 4. Certainly all the crack outs skew the numbers remaining on the bourse floor and auctions. It can't be 90/10...or 10/90...not even close. Unless you've been the original submitter for raw coins being tried at both services numerous times, you have no personal experience with how a coin ended up in the holder it's in. When I see some of my old coins in current holders, I know what they graded in 1988, in 1998, and in 2008. 10 yrs seems to be about the typical re-grading cycle.
Consider a coin that PCGS might grade MS 64, 63, 64, 64, 64, 64. Then NGC grades it 64, 64, 65, 64, 64, 65. The services agree on 4/6 times. Yet all we see in the end is the over-graded MS65. The real grade of the coin is probably solid 64. NGC gets grief for the last grade, not their majority grade. Ideally, a coin should carry ALL of its previous grading events with it. Then let the market determine what those all mean to the price. It still comes down to the fact that a single grading event usually can't determine a coin's true value.
@roadrunner said: "Ideally, a coin should carry ALL of its previous grading events with it. Then let the market determine what those all mean to the price. It still comes down to the fact that a single grading event usually can't determine a coin's true value. "
While this is certainly true - all grades shown as is allowed for a TPGS finalizer - It will never happen. However, these days with the Internet sleuths, I'm surprised at how many of the upgrades are shown in their previous holder.
Why doesn't this thread just go POOF, to many negative posts about other TPG services.
OTOH, the members that know what they are talking about...KNOW what they are talking about!
So it all boils down to psychology being more applicable than accuracy.
As long as get decent profit not a concern for me.