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Legend Baltimore Report. Pouge & Blue Moon
Justacommeman
Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭
Walker Proof Digital Album
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
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"A volcano hits the coin market!" In everyday life that would be a BAD thing.
Nice report for the high end coin market.. They mention the "new breed" of collectors entering the market, info reported here earlier perhaps from the CU member on Instagram..?
Two entirely facets facets but encouraging none the less
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
This was a great report. Thanks for sharing.
Quality & long term holding are both key. I have always asserted this.
I also believe that the very high end market is doing quite well and this trend will likely continue.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
It appears that the "high end" market for even common series is also doing well (from my very small perspective). People seem ready (myself included) to pay top dollar for the best coins in their niche/price range and everything that is subpar is sitting around for what seems like forever.
It is very encouraging and seems to reflect the overall economy's "confidence" that has been on the rise. It's so interesting to me that this confidence is rarely based on reality or fact but has a tremendous impact on different discretionary sectors of the economy nonetheless.
"Without a doubt, the upper end of the coin market rose 10-20% this past week."
In just a week? Not likely. I'll take the "under" on that one. Because the 1852 MS66 RD cent brought $94K doesn't lift the entire gem 19th century coin market.
"To realize a strong price, the coin MUST be 100% all there. 98% does not cut it for the new breed of collector who lives for quality and eye appeal."
Makes no sense. There's really no difference from 98% to 100%. The "new breed" of collector cannot tell that difference. Most life long professional dealers can't either. It's like saying grading and valuing coins is 98% accurate. Or being able to tell a MS66.40 coin that does sticker, to one that is MS66.39 that doesn't sticker. Taken another way, this is like saying 98% of the gem type coin market is unworthy....only 2% is good enough.
The Billionaire buying $75 MILL is a drop in the bucket considering there are 30-50 MILL slabbed coins out there with an approx value of $10-$50 BILL or more of market value. It would take billions to sop up all the dreck and/or low end stuff. That will never happen.
"The current level of confidence in the upper end of the market fore sure is stronger then 2008!"
Seems very unlikely imo. The Stack/Pryor/Riordan/Roadrunner/Malibu/Pogue PCGS MS66 CAC 1855 half fetched $37,600 this week vs. the $54,625 Pogue paid in Nov 2010.....31% lower. When I sold the coin in 2009 it brought $38K to the Malibu buyer. It's slightly less today. To have matched 2008 levels that coin would have had to make the $45K-$55K level. That coin is pretty indicative of the high end, gem seated coin market and has been ever since 1975. To be at July 2008 levels again we'd need all the whales back from that period, and then some. If we're talking about the top 1% of the premium rare coin market (guesstimate of $400 MILL in total value), then certainly different rules could apply.
https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-6QPW0 1855 half from Pogue.
So a month ago the markets were in a malaise from all the big collections of the past 1-3 yrs....then 2 more of them hit this past week....and everything is great again with prices jumping 10-20% overnight. ???? Did gold just jump up to $1435 (a 15% rise)? Or did silver jump 15% up to near $21 again? Did the stock market go up another 5% to fresh all time highs? I didn't see any of that happening the past week.
Fwiw, the word I got from some experienced long time pro's viewing Blue Moon was that a lot of the early proof sets didn't have the best of eye appeal. While original, the toning was often thick and mottled. While that has never bothered me, it has become an issue with many collectors since 2008. The new breed tends to prefer rainbow rings or skittles coloration, often from secondary toning. Headlight CAM/DCAMs from dipping are also high on the list.
Just be viewing the photos I could tell the 1888 proof set was the best of that bunch. Legend bought that intact by going after every single 1888 lot....paying a strong $32,724 in total. I saw them do the same thing on the gem 1869 Proof set out of Stacks' Vermeulle sale in Nov 2001. I would suspect when other bidders saw them deep into that 1888 proof set they made them pay up for the 25c, 50c, and $1. Based on the prices realized they did pay. It was the only complete early set with nice appeal on all the silver coins + all being CAC'd.
Will a rising tide at the upper echelon level (yachts) raise all boats (row boats of so called dreck)?
If coins with stickers are the only pieces that amount to anything, why did I have to pay a premium for one that had no sticker? I guess CAC can tell the difference between the coins that are 100% "all there" and the ones that only make 98%.
WOW! Imagine having that kind of ability! I guess I'm up the creek since most of my coins are probably only 80 to 90 % "there."
At this point I'd like to buy a 1839-C quarter eagle that is "98% there" or even 75% there at the right price. At this point I can't find one that is 50% there.
I'm not sure the row boats are even aware the yachts are viewable in the area.
Yes, most of us are too far down in the water to notice them as they go steaming by us. Let's how we don't get washed over in their wake.
When I was younger, the top auction houses made it obvious that they didn't have much time for the "unwashed," but they weren't so overt about it until your stepped into their part of pond. They didn't place ads that stated, that stated that "the bottom 98% need not apply."
It's like viewing a gem FH SLQ which even when slabbed is often not close to the 100% detail seen on the sharpest business strikes. 90-95% head gets you a FH label. So a coin with less than 98% of the min requirement (ie 88.2%) doesn't qualify. And there are people out there who can differentiate from 88% to 90% FH detail? Or how about a 2% difference in the total marks on a coin? The TPGs are repeatable in the 60-80% grading range on classic gem type coin coins, but the "new breed" is buying with a 98% eye to accuracy?
@roadrunner You can't seem to get passed the hyperbole. I'm sure 98% vs 100% was used to make a point and not to mean that collectors (including them) can ACTUALLY tell the difference between 2%.
People are trying to find the best. That's the point.
Who is the "Utah Billionaire", who is currently buying everything as long as it is PCGS?
I believe it's one of our newest posters
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
No. Just the performance of your typical PF63/64/65/67 Barber proofs since 1989 will tell you that this isn't true. A larger event like a rising gold/silver bullion market, booming stock market, reduced capital gains on collectibles, or some similar event would move the ENTIRE coin market. Right now, it's just the upper 1% (to 5%) that's performing. If you consider the 1855 half dollar above, it is relatively unchanged in price over the past 8 years. And if I had to place a price on it at the summer 1989 market peak, it would probably have been $20K-$25K. When Pryor sold it in 1996 it went for $9,900 (he paid $900 in 1975).
We are more fried then over done french fries.
Thanks for posting the report.
Well, then they should make an accurate assessment. I can only comment on the words as written. We don't need more hyperbole in the rare coin market. It's suffered from 45 years of that already since NERCG/SIR Coin ushered in the investment coin market era around 1971-1973. So instead of 98% is the real number 90%, 80% or even 66%? Makes a big difference. Collectors should always strive for a specific level of quality that works for them. But only 1 person can own the very best coin of any grade/date/mm/type. That level of quality or hair splitting doesn't lend itself well to an efficient or overall viable coin market.
Legend quote:
Translation - He's not buying coins from Legend at their premium prices.
You get what you pay for...
Yes, if you are treated fairly. Ask the people who paid MS-65 prices for sliders when they built "investment portfolios" from Rare Coins of America. They got the shaft, and they didn't "get what they paid for."
Legend sells top notch, quality material. There is no question about that, but the key point is, how much is quality really worth? It is possible to over pay for anything, even the finest coin known of its kind.
Eliasberg had a lot of great coins, but he didn't have the best of everything. Given the fact that he paid something less than half a million dollars for his entire U.S. collection, I doubt that he was "meat on the table" for the dealers who sold to him. Given his investment background I imagine that he was a pretty shrewd buyer. The collectors who competed with him, who were of my father's generation, told me that he was "a vacuum cleaner," but the overall quality of his holdings tell me that he was not an indiscriminate buyer.
I have no idea what kind of buyer this "Utah billionaire" is, but if he made the money himself and did not just inherit it, he probably won't be "meat on the table" for long if he ever has been "a mark."
With all the whales Legend has, doubt they need the big guy. Not everyone will be a quality buyer, thus not a Legend customer.
Did your read they bought 1/4 of pogue last night?
I wouldn't be so sure they won't be sold in our lifetime. The Bass Foundation sold off their coins to fund education endeavors.
I think it's more like "you get what you inspect.....not what you expect." The majority of collectors, and even the big ones, and certainly the whales, all over-pay. Too few really get what "they pay for." The old retail adage that you have to wait 5-10 years to see your "investment" perform (or break even) suggests you aren't getting what you paid for during those first several years.
Quality never goes out of style. It only costs more at certain moments in time. I've always done better on reach collectibles. The ones "I over paid" for at the time and that includes items from Legend and Shamhart. The deals have always been fair IMO. As Bobby Axelrod says, " no leaves a really good negotiation happy".
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Quality never goes out of style, but then deals for quality don't either
I don't mind paying for or getting a deal for quality. A few of my favorite pieces have been flipped to me and a few I've been able to find myself. I enjoy both kinds.
When you want to buy a "widget" and the same "widget" sells for 50% more because it is PCGS-CAC, it makes you wonder. Of course the NGC non CAC "widget" has to measure up to the PCGS-CAC widget to make that work. In the instance where I was in the position, I thought that it did. The two coins were the same grade, just different labels.
What was the "widget?" It was a 1907-D half eagle I wanted to complete an "all mints" $5 gold set. If you are going to put a $5 Liberty in the Denver Mint spot, the choice is two "widgets," a 1906-D or a 1907-D.
I guess I should lower my standards by 2 percent, but does that mean I will save a boatload?
I don't think so, coin dealers don't have B&M's anymore (at least most of them) and they continue to do the BS "dance" about their overhead and how soft the market is (when you are selling).
When you're buying look out, different ball game chump!
As I predicted a fair number of the Missouri Cabinet common half cents took a fall when Pogue sold them. They were the result of bidding wars the sirstbtime around. Some were 40 to 50 percent lower. The rare coins for the most part seemed to be plus or minus ten percent.
Coin Junkie
cameoproofcoins.com
Who is this Pouge you speak of?
Latin American Collection
He sounds French (poo-zhay).
Thats me
Removing the 2 1794 $1 we had purchased in past major auctions, Legend spent OVER $6,000,000.00 hammer between these two sales-which was more then any other sale (by $1 million). In fact, Stacks informed us this AM we bought 30% of last nights sale. We have never represented more aggressive collectors then between these two sales. We all wondered can Gardner and Newman Collections ever be rebuilt? The new super breed of collector seem hell bent on building even better sets (yes, that IS possible). The Pouge Sale completed a beyond insane Type set that will rival any and is worth $30-$40 million easy-for a collector who is not even American! We fought against this collector for a few years over the very best coins on the market. Our sincere congratulations to his completion (and a BIG grin from us now that we can buy more of the great stuff that hopefully will come around). - See more at: http://www.legendnumismatics.com/market-reports/the-baltimore-show-4/#sthash.SP79Xw8h.dpuf
Congratulations on completing the type set---do you have some other area that you are going to pursue now?
Those Legend reports are always fun to read....Some information, some laughs.... A lot of hype.... Cheers, RickO
Roadrunner, I attended all 5 Pogue sales and I would say that Pogue V certainly makes everything now between 10 to 30% more expensive. Of course there are and will be exceptions, like certain expensive coins like the 1804 Dollar or certain dated Cents went cheap too
thanks, not at the moment, we are happy with what we have.
Well, there you have it
As far as the Utah MAN buying everything in sight goes, how do I sell him some coins!