Question regarding Indian gold
Gazes
Posts: 2,315 ✭✭✭✭✭
I do not collect 2.5 , $5 and $10 Indian gold but always liked the coins. One thing that always puzzled me is that the Indian gold coins sold for prices that seemed steep to me in comparison to their population. For instance, a 65 $5 half eagle may go for $10,000 even though it has a population of 50 or so. The coins I collect that just doesn't happen.
I assume the reason is that their is a much bigger base of collectors for this series ? I also noticed for many dates there may be 50 in 65 and only 1 or 2 in 66 and that's it---this would effectively make a 65 the best you can get and impact price.
Any insight on pricing for these coins would be appreciated. Thank you.
I assume the reason is that their is a much bigger base of collectors for this series ? I also noticed for many dates there may be 50 in 65 and only 1 or 2 in 66 and that's it---this would effectively make a 65 the best you can get and impact price.
Any insight on pricing for these coins would be appreciated. Thank you.
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Comments
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Now might be the time to jump in as prices have fallen in non CAC Indians. CAC is another story
mark
Mark--forgive my ignorance --can you expand on your comment on the difference in prices on non cac vs cac Indians ? Thanks
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Prices last peaked for the common/semi-scarce dated $5 Indians in choice/gem unc back in 2006. It's been a l-o-n-g 10 yr fall. So your observations have been taken to heart by the coin market too. Prices for gem common date $5's and $10's are now one half to one third of their 2006 highs, despite gold going to $1923/oz in 2011....and gold still double the price today of what it was in 2006. Promotions and poor population analysis might have been part of it. Gold grading standards getting sloppier in the 1998-2008 period have helped drop prices too. One could say that a significant portion of the rare coin market peaked in 2006 after a 10 yr run, one of them being gem generic gold coins. Gem generic gold, gem Morgans, gem classic commems, gem gold commems, etc. are just some of the coins that are far from their 1989 peaks....due both to looser grading and increasing slabbed supplies coming to market.
I recall when a gem $5 Indian was considered a "rare" coin. They cost in the $20K's back in 2006....getting back to about 90% of their 1989 highs of $25K+. Today they are buyable in the $6K-$10K range depending on quality, holder, etc. CAC will likely cost you a lot more. Consider that in late 1989 the PCGS pop of gem $5 Indians was only 41 coins, 60% of them dated 1908. Today the PCGS pop of MS65 and better coins is approx 1,000 (figure an actual 500 based on resubmissions). And most of those MS65's are needed by type set collectors, not date set collectors. Pops today of $10 Indians in 65 and higher is around 3,000. For gem $20 Libs 7,000 pieces. The pops on the $5's are considerably smaller. It's a very popular set....though the 1909-0 and 1929 together will run you $30K-$50K in AU. The demand for gem 20th century gold type sets, or just an Indian gold set, is considerable. It far outstrips the demand for most sets. While there may be only hundreds of date collectors for $5 Indians, there are thousands to tens of thousands of buyers for a gem $5 Indian for type purposes.
If you compare the pops from 64 to 65 the $5 Indians win out with a 10-1 ratio. Next comes the $20 Libs at 8-1, $2-1/2 Indians at 4-1, $3 Indians at 3.4-1, $10 Indians at 3-1, and then $20 Saints in the 2.1-2.8 range. So the fact that the $5 Indians have a high spread from choice unc to gem raises their MS65 price. They are highly sought after in gem 20th century gold type sets. All those type coins are readily available....except the $5 Indian. And if you're fastidious, you might have to look through a dozen MS65 gem gold coins to find a single specimen you like. CAC might only sticker 10-20% of these. So for only a 15-35% premium the gem CAC gold coin could be the better deal. On MS66 Saints the CAC premium is currently around 45-65%, probably the largest among gem generic gold....an indication of the sloppier grading on the gem Saints.
I think some of the best values in generic gold are the MS63/64 $10 Indians (Libs too). Priced in the $750-$1200 range over the past couple of years, their premiums to spot gold are near 20-30 year lows. It doesn't help that we have looser grading and much higher supplies of slabbed specimens as they flow in from around the world. Considering that a simple MS64 Morgan brings a 4.5X premium to its silver content, an MS64 1926/1932 $10 Indian fetching 1.8X its metal content seems fairly attractive. It's a combo deal in numismatics and gold. Circ wheat cents have a 1.4 cents melt value....though you can't buy them for that price. The "lowly" $20 Saints in MS64 are now fetching around 11-15% over melt...near the lowest premiums of the past 16 years....and you can find nice ones for that price.
For a cross comparison: PCGS has graded approx 500 gem capped bust halves....about half of the $5 Indian gold pops. An MS65 PCGS CBH sells for a similar price to the $5 Indian. Stickered numbers are similar at 171 vs. 180 specimens. Hard to say which is under stronger demand. I'd say the gold coin. Just based on pops, the CBH looks to be the better coin....and new supplies aren't coming in as readily as generic gold.
Sure. I'm doing a 12 piece gold type set in 65 and better. I've found as much as a 60% difference in piece in PCGS CAC to PCGS sans sticker. Albanese is a bear on gold. Look at the pops/ sticker rate.
mark
Please post your album when you get it going so we can follow because I bet it will be incredible.
I just picked up an 1854 type 2 gold dollar, and it was a stretch for me in MS61 CAC. I can only imagine the investment for that coin in MS65. Even at a decade low, you are still looking at paying in the $20ks for a GEM example. I imagine the $3s in 65 demand a princely sum as well.
I have all but the $3, though my $2.5s are in NGC holders. Here is my12 piece set so far:
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistry/Album.aspx?setid=146735
And ATS:
http://coins.www.collectors-society.com/registry/coins/SetGallery.aspx?PeopleSetID=165337
Indian Head $10 Gold Date Set Album
BST transactions: dbldie55, jayPem, 78saen, UltraHighRelief, nibanny, liefgold, FallGuy, lkeigwin, mbogoman, Sandman70gt, keets, joeykoins, ianrussell (@GC), EagleEye, ThePennyLady, GRANDAM, Ilikecolor, Gluggo, okiedude, Voyageur, LJenkins11, fastfreddie, ms70, pursuitofliberty, ZoidMeister,Coin Finder, GotTheBug, edwardjulio, Coinnmore, Nickpatton, Namvet69,...
That was a well thought-out reply. I learned a bunch. Thanks for taking the time.
roadrunner,
That was a well thought-out reply. I learned a bunch. Thanks for taking the time.
Me too!
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Great looking album!
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Gold coins for decades were considered "better" than silver coins, or at least that's how I viewed it. As stated above.... better marketing. Promotions have come by from time to time. And gem gold coins have enough supply to run them. Because of all that, premiums seemed a bit skewed for years towards gem gold in general, and especially the fairly available $2-1/2, $5, and $10 Indian gold coins. Those coins are still coming in from overseas having been sent there from the late 1920's to mid-1930's.
Prices last peaked for the common/semi-scarce dated $5 Indians in choice/gem unc back in 2006. It's been a l-o-n-g 10 yr fall. So your observations have been taken to heart by the coin market too. Prices for gem common date $5's and $10's are now one half to one third of their 2006 highs, despite gold going to $1923/oz in 2011....and still double the price today of what it was in 2006. Promotions and poor population analysis might have been part of it. Gold grading standards getting sloppier in the 1998-2008 period have helped drop prices too. One could say that a significant portion of the rare coin market peaked in 2006 after a 10 yr run, one of them being gem generic gold coins. Gem generic gold, gem Morgans, gem classic commems, gem gold commems, etc. are just some of the coins that are far from their 1989 peaks....due both to looser grading and increasing slabbed supplies coming to market.
I recall when a gem $5 Indian was considered a "rare" coin. They cost in the $20K's back in 2006....getting back to about 90% of their 1989 highs of $25K+. Today they are buyable in the $6K-$10K range depending on quality, holder, etc. CAC will likely cost you a lot more. Consider that in late 1989 the PCGS pop of gem $5 Indians was only 41 coins, 60% of them dated 1908. Today the PCGS pop of MS65 and better coins is approx 1,000 (figure an actual 500 based on resubmissions). And most of those MS65's are needed by type set collectors, not date set collectors. Pops today of $10 Indians in 65 and higher is around 3,000. For gem $20 Libs 7,000 pieces. The pops on the $5's are considerably smaller. It's a very popular set....though the 1909-0 and 1929 together will run you $30K-$50K in AU. The demand for gem 20th century gold type sets, or just an Indian gold set, is considerable. It far outstrips the demand for most sets. While there may be only hundreds of date collectors for $5 Indians, there are thousands to tens of thousands of buyers for a gem $5 Indian for type purposes.
If you compare the pops from 64 to 65 the $5 Indians win out with a 10-1 ratio. Next comes the $20 Libs at 8-1, $2-1/2 Indians at 4-1, $3 Indians at 3.4-1, $10 Indians at 3-1, and then $20 Saints in the 2.1-2.8 range. So the fact that the $5 Indians have a high spread from choice unc to gem raises their MS65 price. They are highly sought after in gem 20th century gold type sets. All those type coins are readily available....except the $5 Indian. And if you're fastidious, you might have to look through a dozen MS65 gem gold coins to find a single specimen you like. CAC might only sticker 5-15% of these. So for only a 15-35% premium the gem CAC gold coin could be the better deal. On MS66 Saints the CAC premium is currently around 45-65%, probably the largest among gem generic gold....an indication of the sloppier grading on the gem Saints.
I think some of the best values in generic gold are the MS63/64 $10 Indians (Libs too). Priced in the $750-$1200 range over the past couple of years, their premiums to spot gold are near 20-30 year lows. It doesn't help that we have looser grading and much higher supplies of slabbed specimens as they flow in from around the world. Considering that a simple MS64 Morgan brings a 4.5X premium to its silver content, an MS64 1926/1932 $10 Indian fetching 1.8X its metal content seems fairly attractive. It's a combo deal in numismatics and gold. Circ wheat cents have a 1.4 cents melt value....though you can't buy them for that price. The "lowly" $20 Saints in MS64 are now fetching around 11-15% over melt...near the lowest premiums of the past 16 years....and you can find nice ones for that price.
Great info and analysis!
Last really strong move for gem generic gold was in the fall of 2009 as gold was moving from over $1,000 to $1225/oz by late November. That was really the last hurrah. And despite gold rising to $1900+ over the following 2 years, $1 to $10 gem generic gold didn't get anywhere near the previous price peaks achieved in Nov 2009.
As a reminder of how insane prices were in 2006, I recall MS65 $3 Indians in the low $30K's, MS65 $10 Indians to $7500, and MS63 $10 Indians to $2250-$2500 (having started out at $650-$675 only 1-2 yrs earlier). I only watched 2006 from the outside and sort of considered it to be the "great promotion" of gem generic gold, especially the $10 Indians.
Generic MS has taken such a pounding that MS64 $10 Indians and MS66 Saints would qualify as bullion under definitions of Patriot Act 2. That's the only place I know where "bullion" is formally defined in US law. The IRS only has "informal" rulings, no hard and fast definitions.
I was looking for Modern US Type gold pieces in the peak years for the 5$ Indian, but did not know it. I think I have a complete set (minus pre classic) except for the 5$ indian. This explains why. I probably would not have bought a 65, but the story is the same for the lesser grades.
BTW I dont know how to do the same chart on CoinFacts. I have always been a little suspicious of these charts on NGC site as the dont seem to show the dips that I hear about, but this one sure does!
On loggers question CAC standards for gold I have submitted some that I and dealers think are locks, and not gotten the bean. I suspect that CAC is suffering the same malady as other graders, over time there is a variability in results. I have not been able to figure it out.
On the criteria for what CAC considers pass worthy in MS65 type gold, what are the conditions for a Saint to get their gem bean? And is the current Greysheet bid at just under $2K for MS65, their bid?
Current generic MS65 Saints are around the $1600 level. So that must be a CAC bid in the $1800-$2000 range....and pretty close the price of generic MS66's. Not much difference from a CAC 65 vs a generic 66 in quality, though the CAC coin would tend to have original surfaces.
To meet CAC 65 standards you'd have to go back to before the period when grading got sloppy, possibly into the mid to late 1990's. The easiest way to see this is check out the Heritage archives and look at dozens of MS65 CAC Saints. The coins look wholesome/original/choice as a rule. Surfaces are king...though I can't tell you exactly what that proprietary mix is that they focus on. Spots don't really matter on orig coins. The surfaces tend to be original though at times you run across a dipped coin with superior blast and/or minimal marks. They don't like flat spots on Liberty's knee or the eagle's breast/upper leg. That could be why they are so stingy on 1908 NM Saints that come with weaker detail. They haven't stickered a single 1908 MS68 Saint yet there are 100+ of them out there. And they are much stingier at giving a 67 grade to a 1908 NM than any other later common date.
I'm often still surprised at the "nice" MS64-67 Saints they won't sticker. I'm still learning after 8 years of watching. They only sticker around 5-10% of all MS65's....Hence the 20-30% premiums. Bulk/min grading has contributed a lot to the sloppiness in "gem" Saints.
GC MS66 CAC Saint
While not a MS65, the above coin that went off last night had the type of "look" CAC often appreciates, note the reverse....and the blast only crowd might not.
Thanks for all the kind comments guys.
Last really strong move for gem generic gold was in the fall of 2009 as gold was moving from over $1,000 to $1225/oz by late November. That was really the last hurrah. And despite gold rising to $1900+ over the following 2 years, $1 to $10 gem generic gold didn't get anywhere near the previous price peaks achieved in Nov 2009.
As a reminder of how insane prices were in 2006, I recall MS65 $3 Indians in the low $30K's, MS65 $10 Indians to $7500, and MS63 $10 Indians to $2250-$2500 (having started out at $650-$675 only 1-2 yrs earlier). I only watched 2006 from the outside and sort of considered it to be the "great promotion" of gem generic gold, especially the $10 Indians.
Generic MS has taken such a pounding that MS64 $10 Indians and MS66 Saints would qualify as bullion under definitions of Patriot Act 2. That's the only place I know where "bullion" is formally defined in US law. The IRS only has "informal" rulings, no hard and fast definitions.
What is the definition of "bullion" under Patriot Act 2?
Indian Head $10 Gold Date Set Album
On the criteria for what CAC considers pass worthy in MS65 type gold, what are the conditions for a Saint to get their gem bean? And is the current Greysheet bid at just under $2K for MS65, their bid?
Current generic MS65 Saints are around the $1600 level. So that must be a CAC bid in the $1800-$2000 range....and pretty close the price of generic MS66's. Not much difference from a CAC 65 vs a generic 66 in quality, though the CAC coin would tend to have original surfaces.
To meet CAC 65 standards you'd have to go back to before the period when grading got sloppy, possibly into the mid to late 1990's. The easiest way to see this is check out the Heritage archives and look at dozens of MS65 CAC Saints. The coins look wholesome/original/choice as a rule. Surfaces are king...though I can't tell you exactly what that proprietary mix is that they focus on. Spots don't really matter on orig coins. The surfaces tend to be original though at times you run across a dipped coin with superior blast and/or minimal marks. They don't like flat spots on Liberty's knee or the eagle's breast/upper leg. That could be why they are so stingy on 1908 NM Saints that come with weaker detail. They haven't stickered a single 1908 MS68 Saint yet there are 100+ of them out there. And they are much stingier at giving a 67 grade to a 1908 NM than any other later common date.
I'm often still surprised at the "nice" MS64-67 Saints they won't sticker. I'm still learning after 8 years of watching. They only sticker around 5-10% of all MS65's....Hence the 20-30% premiums. Bulk/min grading has contributed a lot to the sloppiness in "gem" Saints.
GC MS66 CAC Saint
While not a MS65, the above coin that went off last night had the type of "look" CAC often appreciates, note the reverse....and the blast only crowd might not.
And the 66 Saint sold for pretty much dealer bid for a 66 CAC Saint-----$3400
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Other thoughts since CAC bought a big chunk of Greysheet and many of the increases as well as Gs bids are CAC not non-CAC. So even nice coins if they don't quite have the CAC panache can be worth 10-20% less easily.
Latin American Collection
The highest parts of the design on that coin and the $2.50 counterpart are the fields. For that reason the fields were very prone to picking up marks. When the design was first approved in 1908 the thought was that the recessed, incuse designs would wear very well. That turned out to be true. The rare of examples of the $2.50 and $5.00 Indian gold coins that are worn down to VG condition show remarkable detail. Since the $2.50 is smaller and lighter, it is less prone to marks and easier to find in high grade, but it's still tougher than the $2.50 Liberty.
The trouble is the fields on many of those $5 coins started to get marked up the second the coin from the coin press. That was the main reason why mint officials were not pleased with the design after they saw what happened to it in circulation, and why we have not had another incuse coin design since then.
The Indian's high cheekbone is also very vulnerable to wear. Many pieces are found with a minimum of marks, but there is a dull "gray" area in the cheekbone area that makes the coin look like an AU. It is my understanding that this occurred when the coins were stacked.
When I was kid collector in the 1960s and was trying to assemble the eight piece gold type set, the $5 Indian was BY FAR the hardest coin to find in what I considered to be strict Uncirculated condition. There was also a rub on the Indian's cheekbone that displeased me. I finally got one that was okay, but not great. BTW collectors were not nearly a picky about Gem Unc. coins as they are today.
The $5 Indian cost $45 retail in Mint State, and maybe $47.50 in "Gem." The trouble was most of the "Gems" were not "Gem." You could be really nice example of the other gold coins for minor premiums like that, however.
To me the coin is legitimately tough in Gem Uncirculated (MS-65 and higher), and given the huge demand for the eight or twelve piece gold type set, the prices are justified.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Early 20th Century US Gold is a more appropriate term IMO.
There is no series or group of coins I am ore passionate about than Early 20th Century Gold. in 1988 I read David Akers book on the subject cover to cover and was hooked. I wanted them all of course did not have means I settled on filling a 20 coin storage coins with 5 of each issue : 2.50 - 10.00 Indians and then Saints. This gave me a goal at shows - many pieces I could not afford above AU50-58, Saints MS63-MS64 affordable for me. I had so much fun filling the first box I went for another. As my career has been in financial, if I scheduled an audit somewhere I made sure it was in a city having a Coin Show that weekend. Coins I could afford which were nice and caught my eye I bought.
This is one of the most fascinating, exciting series in American Numismatics.
The $5 Indian gold piece IS a very scarce coin in MS-65 and higher in my opinion.
The highest parts of the design on that coin and the $2.50 counterpart are the fields. For that reason the fields were very prone to picking up marks. When the design was first approved in 1908 the thought was that the recessed, incuse designs would wear very well. That turned out to be true. The rare of examples of the $2.50 and $5.00 Indian gold coins that are worn down to VG condition show remarkable detail. Since the $2.50 is smaller and lighter, it is less prone to marks and easier to find in high grade, but it's still tougher than the $2.50 Liberty.
The trouble is the fields on many of those $5 coins started to get marked up the second the coin from the coin press. That was the main reason why mint officials were not pleased with the design after they saw what happened to it in circulation, and why we have not had another incuse coin design since then.
I see
The Indian's high cheekbone is also very vulnerable to wear. Many pieces are found with a minimum of marks, but there is a dull "gray" area in the cheekbone area that makes the coin look like an AU. It is my understanding that this occurred when the coins were stacked.
When I was kid collector in the 1960s and was trying to assemble the eight piece gold type set, the $5 Indian was BY FAR the hardest coin to find in what I considered to be strict Uncirculated condition. There was also a rub on the Indian's cheekbone that displeased me. I finally got one that was okay, but not great. BTW collectors were not nearly a picky about Gem Unc. coins as they are today.
The $5 Indian cost $45 retail in Mint State, and maybe $47.50 in "Gem." The trouble was most of the "Gems" were not "Gem." You could be really nice example of the other gold coins for minor premiums like that, however.
To me the coin is legitimately tough in Gem Uncirculated (MS-65 and higher), and given the huge demand for the eight or twelve piece gold type set, the prices are justified.
Great post --- how does the 2.5 Indian compare in 65 ? I see you say it's less prone to marks but do you feel it is rare in properly graded 65 and worth its current price?
Thank you for sharing your detailed quantitative analysis!
A recent NEWP PCGS 65 CAC
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Indian Head $10 Gold Date Set Album
This 1925-D $2.50 is graded MS-65.
And this 1913 $5.00 is graded MS-64.