What determines a key or semi key date?

unclebob · February 3, 2016 4:33AM

For you... What determines a key date or semi key date coin? I am trying to formulate a long term plan and a selection criteria for my collection. A lot of VAM's and Snow varieties may only have 5 to 50 graded examples. Is it a particularly scarce grade for that date? Total known Population? Historic Mintage numbers? Where do scarce varieties, VAM's, or Snow IHC (plug in favorite series) fit into the mix? For example... the 1878 8TF (14.whatever VAMS) are in high demand while some interesting, yet equally scarce but obscure Snow variety goes ignored.

Overdate · February 3, 2016 5:20AM

For me it's a combination of scarcity, popularity, condition and price. All four factors need to be considered, and opinions will differ.

ajaan · February 3, 2016 5:25AM

On eBay, the seller.

Sonorandesertrat · February 3, 2016 5:25AM

A mix of real collector demand and dealer promotion.

BillJones · February 3, 2016 5:33AM

For most collectors it's the catalog price.

ebaybuyer · February 3, 2016 5:44AM

mintage vs survival rate. for instance, the 1916-D mercury dime had a low mintage but probably half of them still exist ... along with all the good counterfeits and forgeries. in contrast to a coin like the 1856-S dime, 70k original mintage and even a 1% survival rate may be too generous

clarkbar04 · February 3, 2016 5:49AM

I agree with what Bill said. My example is the 38-D walker which is a key to the "long short set" but is available in any grade with little searching. The prices don't seem to align with the availability.

Being a somewhat "modern low-mintage rarity" it was likely hoarded. As such it is a "key date" I will probably never own as it seems like a terrible value. Oh, look it seems i've gotten off on a tangent!

Sonorandesertrat · February 3, 2016 6:02AM

Does the notion of 'key date' continue to have lasting value if more and more collectors move from collecting one or more favored series to type collecting or another form of collecting (e.g., date sets) that does not require buying all of the members of a series of coins? Most 'key dates' are conditionally rare, not rare on an absolute basis.

ernie11 · February 3, 2016 6:32AM

An addendum to popularity as a factor is what I would call "relativity", I hope someone can come up with a better word for it. What would be a key date in one series is much less so in another. I have an 1885 quarter eagle in the Liberty head series and the PCGS pop reports say they've graded 63 business strikes. In the Indian head quarter eagles, the 1911-D strong D is listed as having 3,424 graded by PCGS. Yet the 1911-D easily outdistances the 1885 in price because it's the key of the Indian head series and is a proverbial big fish in a small pond. People like collecting the Indians and it's a series that can be completed. A coin with the same scarcity as the 1885 in the Indian head series would go for huge bucks.

Sonorandesertrat · February 3, 2016 6:39AM

ernie11: My term 'conditionally rare' is, I think, what you referred to by 'relativity.' And I do agree with you.

291fifth · February 3, 2016 6:50AM

A key or semi-key date is determined by the level of demand versus the supply available. Many key or semi-key dates are actually quite common but are also very popular and are the target of hoarders as well as collectors.

LindeDad · February 3, 2016 6:54AM

It will be the ones up front in the dealers case.

roadrunner · February 3, 2016 7:29AM

Originally posted by: Sonorandesertrat

A mix of real collector demand and dealer promotion.

This as well as the catalog price mentioned by Bill Jones.

And fwiw, none of those actually ensure that the coin is indeed a "key" date...only that it's popular, promoted, and/or expensive vs. most other dates in the series.

When I first started out in seated quarters, most of the key dates were not considered key dates at all....but rather 2nd or 3rd tier. The ones with the biggest price tags tended to be coins with low mintages or promoted by dealers. For decades, some coins like the 1878-s and the 1855-s quarters, rode on the coat tails of their scarcer half dollar sisters.

BryceM · February 3, 2016 8:09AM

What I consider a key date and the common perception of a key date are not identical.

In the Peace dollar series, the 1934-S is considered the key date in MS grades (rightly so from survival estimates and realized prices), but there are always at least a dozen to chose from a handful of Internet sellers. They come up at auction all the time. The 1921 and 1928 are considered key dates, but in reality these aren't all that hard to find either, up to MS65, and even MS66 for the 1921.

The overlooked semi-keys in my opinion are the 23-S, 24-S, 26-P, 26-S, 27-D, and 27-S, at least in the grades I'm looking for. They come to auction very much less frequently than the 34-S. Finding a PQ example is many, many times more difficult than finding nice MS65 or even MS66 34-S coins.

TwoSides2aCoin · February 3, 2016 9:11AM

If there's an empty hole in my Whitman, it's probably a key or semi-key. That was often my rule of thumb.

Walkerguy21D · February 3, 2016 9:13AM

Demand seems to be the overriding factor for me. If not many people date collect the series, then scarcity isn't much of a factor.

And as someone stated, the key/semi key status can be quite relative. A 21D walker is readily available in quantities in low

grades, but in AU you'd be lucky to see even one on the bourse of a major show. Same for a number of the early and middle dates

of this popular series. Most large cents by date are readily available in quantities, but the early and middle dates (apart from the hoard coins) with choice surfaces are the 'keys'.

crazyhounddog · February 3, 2016 9:42AM

Originally posted by: ajaan
On eBay, the seller.

Boosibri · February 3, 2016 9:49AM

Your OP seems to have two parts... what makes a key date/semi key...and what is a good long-term plan or selection criteria, almost implying that key and semi-keys are part of that criteria.

For me, I am a contrarian generally. Research the series, look at populations, prices, auction appearances, qualitatively is the issue also a condition rarity, most importantly is there a reason for demand to increase if you are looking for a collection which will hold or increase in value. Don't compromise on quality even for a higher grade. Buy the best quality, not grade that you can afford.

Walkerguy21D · February 3, 2016 10:05AM

dbl post...

OnlyGoldIsMoney · February 3, 2016 11:29AM

Originally posted by: ernie11
An addendum to popularity as a factor is what I would call "relativity", I hope someone can come up with a better word for it. What would be a key date in one series is much less so in another. I have an 1885 quarter eagle in the Liberty head series and the PCGS pop reports say they've graded 63 business strikes. In the Indian head quarter eagles, the 1911-D strong D is listed as having 3,424 graded by PCGS. Yet the 1911-D easily outdistances the 1885 in price because it's the key of the Indian head series and is a proverbial big fish in a small pond. People like collecting the Indians and it's a series that can be completed. A coin with the same scarcity as the 1885 in the Indian head series would go for huge bucks.

Quite true. The Liberty Quarter Eagle series contains 19 post Civil War Philadelphia issues with mintage figures under 5,000. Few other than specialists are aware of them or care about them. Not many will ever attempt to complete the series. They will never be popular or key dates but at least they are still affordable for those who do care.

bidask · February 3, 2016 12:19PM

Originally posted by: unclebob
For you... What determines a key date or semi key date coin? I am trying to formulate a long term plan and a selection criteria for my collection. A lot of VAM's and Snow varieties may only have 5 to 50 graded examples. Is it a particularly scarce grade for that date? Total known Population? Historic Mintage numbers? Where do scarce varieties, VAM's, or Snow IHC (plug in favorite series) fit into the mix? For example... the 1878 8TF (14.whatever VAMS) are in high demand while some interesting, yet equally scarce but obscure Snow variety goes ignored.

Varieties to me are not traditional key or semi key dates unless published in the red book .

keyman64 · February 3, 2016 1:10PM

The 1916-D is NOT the key to the Mercury Dime series when

it comes to Mint State or Mint State Full Band examples.

Anyone that believes otherwise has just stared at the mintage

figures in the Red Book for far too long and have just NEVER

properly researched the information like I have. It is really

quite simple to properly do the analysis. It just takes a little time.

Heck, I even posted a thread on it a few years back.

BLUEJAYWAY · February 3, 2016 3:59PM

Since the 55DD cent is in the Redbook where does this fit into as far as key/semi-key is concerned. The 70's DD cents as well. Or are all errors/varieties dismissed in regard to this discussion topic. BTW this is my favorite error/variety and is a "key" to me.

Nap · February 3, 2016 9:42PM

I don't think most varieties would qualify as keys with perhaps the exceptions being major design differences and overdates. Most collectors do not consider minor varieties essential to the completion of a standard date/mm set of coins.

Key date coins should have some history to them as well, with prior generations of collectors appreciating them for the rarities they are. They need not be absolutely rare.

rhedden · February 4, 2016 12:00AM

Some people would define key dates based on rarity in the grade range they collect in. By that logic, key date Lincolns would include coins like 1926-S if you collect in MS-65 RD, but certainly not 1909-S VDB, which is common in Unc.

I tend to favor the second definition as a collector of Seated material. By definition #1, the real keys to the Seated quarter would be dates like 1859-S, 1860-S, and 1861-S to anyone who collects the series in nice Unc. grades, as there are no MS-63 or finer specimens of these dates known. The 1873-CC No Arrows is less of a key date, because there are a few them available in Unc. (out of a total population of five coins). That just doesn't make sense to me. By definition #2, the 1873-CC No Arrows is the #1 key to the series because it is extremely expensive in all grades. Other expensive keys include 1870-CC, 1871-CC, and 1873-CC Arr., but coins like 1859-S would count as semi-keys because they can be had in G-4 for a reasonable price.

ricko · February 4, 2016 12:27AM

It is mainly determined by collector demand....and that is fed by hype at shows and on forums.

Of course, scarcity feeds into some specimens - but is not a factor in other scarce pieces.

Cheers, RickO

What determines a key or semi key date?

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