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Gradeflation, plusses, and the 100 point scale
Nic
Posts: 3,438 ✭✭✭✭✭
I believe we are heading towards a 100 point scale. I am not sure how the grading services (god bless them) can keep submission volume high, and retain meaning, without such.
Your thoughts?
Your thoughts?
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It the grading services introduce the 100 grading scale it will do great damage to the hobby. I believe that it will make many dedicated collectors who have been loyal to the hobby for many years very angry.
sent to CAC (by me), i.e., I don't 'keep up' with grading trends.
If my heirs ship them off to Heritage, who gets them in 86.5+ holders with purple stickers prior to the auction, so be it.
Check out some of my 1794 Large Cents on www.coingallery.org
a 100 point system. It was a resounding no vote. I too will be out if the TPGs adopt a new standard. Won't
spend my money on another reholdering.
I hope I am wrong, I still have fifty years to collect
They would LOVE to do it, but the kickback would be ugly as the motive would be clear.
For example, instead of an MS65 Trade dollar it would rate, "MS07+" with perhaps a STAR awarded for brilliance and patina.
Let's go to a ten point scale. With Pluses and Minuses provided along with STAR(S).
For example, instead of an MS65 Trade dollar it would rate, "MS07+" with perhaps a STAR awarded for brilliance and patina.
And what grades will the circulated coins get? Perhaps they will be melted or become "no grades."
If the grading services go to a 100 point scale, I am out for good.
Ha! Fat chance. Your a lifer.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
I would like to preface my comments with the following:
1. My collecting emphasis is in Morgan dollars and my understanding of other series is very limited, so comments are pertaining to Morgan dollars only.
2. I believe PCGS is the most accurate and consistent in determining grades. Hands down the best TPG and why coins graded by PCGS garner the highest value.
3. All coins are graded by people, people who have trained and honed their grading skills with a preconceived idea of what a MS64 looks like and so forth. Most collectors have their own idea of what each grade should look like and some with differing results.
4. TPG's were born to allow dealers and collectors alike to compare coins on an apple-to-apple basis. The Sheldon scale allowed differences to be designated within the VF, EF, AU, and MS rating of coins.
5. The * came about to validate the grade on the coin. Technically the coin was MS63, but the eye appeal made the coin more sought after and thus worth more. The range of quality within a grade was too wide.
6. The + came about because the range of quality within a grade was too wide.
7. CAC was also born because the range of quality within a grade was too wide.
8. Change occurs everyday! You can embrace change or stand against change, the trick is to not get run over and left behind by change.
My thoughts are, we do not fully use the ranges of the Sheldon scale by over utilizing MS63 and MS64, while under utilizing MS68, MS69, and MS70. I fully realize this is a radical thought process, but the quality of coins within a grade varies too widely in these grades. I am not suggesting all MS63's should be moved to MS64's, but rather higher quality MS63's should be moved up to MS64 to fully use the Sheldon scale. This would effectively change our perception of what a MS63 and a MS64 should look like, and so on through MS70. I have seen high quality MS67 coins which should be in MS69 holders, if not MS70 holders.
I understand we have far too many coins graded to date to make this correction overnight. Maybe the change is occurring slowly, so slowly most collectors don't understand what is taking place so they scream grade flation. The end result is the better for the grade coins are moving on up, think about it, why would you crackout a low for the grade coin? The crackout specialist is finding undergraded coins and thus changing our perception of what a particular grade looks like, by essentially removing the best of a particular grade.
I have typed all this to say:
No we will not move to a 100 point scale, but your perceived idea of what each grade in the Sheldon scale looks like will change.
BAmorgan
Instead of + grades and CAC stickers we would get a MS64.78 grade for example. 3 graders give their grade estimates to the second decimal and the end grade is an average of all three.
Not really looking for much these days but if I were, it might be a toner.
If the grading services go to a 100 point scale, I am out for good.
Ha! Fat chance. Your a lifer.
Exactly what I was thinking!
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
entirely possible that we may see the introduction of decimals at some point in the
future. Cheers, RickO
I believe we are heading towards a 100 point scale. I am not sure how the grading services (god bless them) can keep submission volume high, and retain meaning, without such.
Your thoughts?
We may get to a one hundred-point grading scale, but I highly doubt it will be a 0-100 point award system. Rather, the emphasis for additional grading steps is within the 60-70 window with perhaps some spillover down to 55 or, more likely, 58. Therefore, we may end up with a one hundred-point grading scale that uses the current seventy-point nomenclature.
This will not send shockwaves or ripples throughout the numismatic community for those dealers and collectors who specialize in circulated coinage as I don't think there will be much change in either *****igned grade or market value for such pieces. However, those living in the 58-70 range will have a plethora of new choices for just where within the *****igned point their coin resides. Even then, those coins with even grade distribution will likely not be affected all that much. The areas that will likely see the most action in this subsection would be the grade below a large price jump and population fall as well as at the very highest grade give for every issue. This will no doubt create opportunity for all, wealth for some and consternation or angst for many.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Other than the obvious profit motive for TPGs, how does going to a 100 point scale help anything remotely connected to the hobby? Who has an intuitive feel for what an MS84 looks like????? What happens to the five-figure value of your pop 4 coin in MS67 when there are 50 four-figure coins at MS66+?
If they want to change something, give each coin a numerical grade for each attribute: Strike, Luster, Surfaces, Eye Appeal, the weight of each, and the composite grade. At least that way we'd be getting more value for our grading dollar. It would also eliminate ridiculous over-emphasis on one quality at the expense of others (drooling over killer color while ignoring significant surface damage).
Forget a 100 point grading scale. We already have a 1000 point grading scale. MS67.7,MS67.8 and MS67.9 are consolidated into a 67+ etc
Nah. And that would not add up to 1000.
What we have now is coins piling up next to or with the highest grade, and degrading that coin.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
Let's go to a ten point scale. With Pluses and Minuses provided along with STAR(S).
For example, instead of an MS65 Trade dollar it would rate, "MS07+" with perhaps a STAR awarded for brilliance and patina.
And what grades will the circulated coins get? Perhaps they will be melted or become "no grades."
Circulated coins wouldn't be graded on the above scale. Instead they received the old fashion POOR; FAIR; AVERAGE GOOD; GOOD; VERY GOOD; FINE; VERY FINE; EXTRA FINE; EXTREMELY FINE (instead of AU).
No pluses or minus awarded to the circulated grades and CAC would no longer be allowed to endorse them.
PCGS would also charge triple for circulated coins to discourage people from collecting them other than raw or in albums only. (No Registry.)
Coin like the below - the obverse is the weaker side of the two. The photo makes the toning look a bit better than it looks in hand, where it's a dark black. Most of the stars are struck well, but there is some weakness on the left side, which doesn't impact the technical grade maybe, but does impact the overall appeal. The reverse, however, is gorgeous, if you happen to like blue. So this coin could grade say a MS63 (or 64) Obverse and a MS64* Reverse. Since most people pay more attention to the obverse, calling out that the reverse is really nice may help the value of the coin.
Successful BST (me as buyer) with: Collectorcoins, PipestonePete, JasonRiffeRareCoins
More grades could be added with negative signs (-). That could get us to 60 of them.
What would an MS60- mean?
How about an MS70-?
Jack McCoy: Objection, Your Honor, asked and answered.
Judge: Sustained.
this is old paranoia talking that resulted in the Plus(+) system currently used with nothing to be reasonably expected in the near future. PCGS tends to be cutting edge and keeps ahead of their competition and the Hobby requirements, so changes are probably forthcoming, but not a 100 point scale.
there are plenty of other things that can be done to keep collectors/dealers interested in submitting to PCGS, that is the type of thing I would expect HRH and company to pursue.
But if you take the +'s and the SP, PL, and DMPLs into effect you come up with what?
Forgot those Cam's and then Deep Cam's.
Did we get to over a Hundred yet?
It the grading services introduce the 100 grading scale it will do great damage to the hobby. I believe that it will make many dedicated collectors who have been loyal to the hobby for many years very angry.
I think it will only be good for folks that has a lot of money. Just my thought as a VF30 will no longer be worth what it is today because it will be down on the scale from what it is now.
I was almost wrong once until my wife told me different, not I am wrong most of the time. Ha Ha!
( to their reputational detriment).
Any thought to a 100pont grading system by those same companies is meaningless to me .
Now if a group of professionals cam together to form a new company that grades in a 100 point
system......depending on who makes up that company it could have some merit.
I give away money. I collect money.
I don’t love money . I do love the Lord God.
Much of thinking at the time was certainly a reaction against both the dominant grade and the electronic commercial grade that were prevalent in that era of numeraloutics. Many dealers and some collectors did not consider temperament of brilliance or patina "a genuine consideration of grade."
Forget a 100 point grading scale. We already have a 1000 point grading scale. MS67.7,MS67.8 and MS67.9 are consolidated into a 67+ etc
Nah. And that would not add up to 1000.
What we have now is coins piling up next to or with the highest grade, and degrading that coin.
"70"
I suppose you could go for "0" but watch out for coins that are artificially worn
“I have all the money I want, and there is a better use I can make of my time. We work to become, not to acquire.” — Elbert Hubbard
If the grading services go to a 100 point scale, I am out for good.
That makes two of us.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
In the VERY long, run, as the transition would be sheer chaos and mayhem for a very long time.
(Much as you could say the Civil War was a "good thing" for freeing the slaves, though many of those who had to live through its devastation might have disagreed.)
It would make more sense, but only with the benefit of long hindsight, perhaps.
Beginning the transition is what doesn't make so much sense, which is probably why we've been shackled to the obsolete Sheldon scale as long as we have.
Implementation would probably require a big summit between the ANA, PCGS, NGC, ICG, ANACS and several other organizations, and would still be widely hated, condemned, and resisted in many camps.
There is or was a British TPG using a 100-point scale already, I believe. If the rest of the world adopted a world standard 100-point scale, the US numismatic community might follow suit eventually... in a century or two.
Or not. Look how far we got with adopting the Metric system. When I was a school kid in the late 1970s and early 1980s, they told us this country would go all Metric by the year 2000. Hmm. Yeah, OK.
Collector since 1976. On the CU forums here since 2001.
A 100 point scale is a wonderful idea. A 1,000 or even a 10,000 point scale would be o.k. too. Of course such a system is beyond the grasp of most humans to comprehend, but in the near future computers will be used to grade coins. Computers will easily be able to handle any number of grade points that they are *****igned. Also, questions about toning will become a thing of the past. Computers will be programmed to sniff-out the real toning from the not so real variety. Who knows; we could see the day when the majority of coin collectors are in fact, computers. I predict the computer-collector segment of the hobby will have the best registery sets. And pay way less money in acquiring them. Computers are smart.
You had me there for the first sentence or two.
Collector since 1976. On the CU forums here since 2001.
The level of each component of the overall grade is determined and noted with a number 0 through 4, 4 being the highest.
Strike: 0= very weak, 1= weak, 2 = medium, 3 = full, 4 = early die state EDS-------
Condition: 0 = Marky/scratched, holed, repaired, 1 = Marks/nicks, 2 = few marks/nicks, 3 = virtually markfree, 4 = no marks worth mentioning------
Luster: 0 = black/dark, 1 = low/dull 2 = medium/flash, 3 = full, nice, 4 = Lustrous/ prooflike-----
Toning: 0 = black/dark, 1 = light, 2 = some notable color, one side, 3 = 2-3 colors/colorful/nice, 4 = multi colors, vibrant.
The great thing about this grading system, the number notation given to the coin can be viewed and compared to the coin in the holder and either agreed to or disagreed with and taken up with the graders. No, this coin does not deserve a 4 EDS notation and here's why or the luster should be more of a 3 than a 2 because......
The coins with the higher set of numbers will be your best coins while low numbers will indicate problems/undesirable aspects. And everyone, anyone observing the graded coin will be able to see that and engage into a dialogue about the coin
Since every time we look at a coin, we are always asking ourselves, how's the strike?, how's the condition?, how's the luster?, what about the toning? And we all know how much we would like to know and actually paid for, what the expert's take is/opinion, about all the components in a coin...........how they grade.
Well, I know when I hit the reply to topic, all the info I neatly arranged is about to become one blob of a paragraph so.........here ya go!
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
Positive BST: WhiteThunder (x2), Ajaan, onefasttalon, mirabela, Wizard1, cucamongacoin, mccardguy1
Negative BST: NONE!
Many replies so far remind me of when the services first started.
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
My 1866 Philly Mint Set
50!
That would be an XF45 back in the day.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress