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November 2015 Baltimore Show Report
TomB
Posts: 23,085 ✭✭✭✭✭
So...how was the recent Baltimore show? Err...
The Baltimore coin show is one of the pillars of the coin show circuit and the fall show is likely the best of the three offerings from this city. In the past, the summer has typically been the weakest show while the spring and fall versions have been much more robust and optimistic. Some might say the spring show is better than the fall show and perhaps it is, but my experience has taught me to look forward to Baltimore in the fall. However, even with that historic optimism, I did not go into this event hoping for a record show. This, as it turns out, was a good thing.
I had neither a good nor easy show. It is my impression that this is similar to what a large number of other dealers experienced. No doubt there will be folks who claim to have sold record numbers of coins or who made a very high profit and I think some of those folks will be telling the complete truth. Some, though, might not and they will have their reasons for what they write or state. I would go on and on with paragraphs of information or might instead give some bullet points about what I witnessed and what I think; I will choose the latter.
•I've written in the past about how certified, circulated Barber half dollars have become more common on the bourse and likely first wrote about this around 2004. Now, however, it appears to be the turn of the early, lower circulated grades of Walking Liberty half dollars that are appearing certified in large numbers. These would be the pre-1933 coins in AG3 through F12. In the past these were pretty unusual to find certified, but now they are fairly easy. I don't think they make economic sense to certify, in general, but perhaps the higher grade pieces are already largely certified and this is the next frontier of liquidity.
•This is not a new observation for me, but I always scratch my head when it happens. I will have a coin and a client whom I know will not buy it, only for me to sell the coin to another dealer who then sells it to the original client for 30% than I had it listed for on my site. I don't know how this works and routinely chalk it up to my being the worst salesperson in the world.
•I ended up buying several pristine proof Franklin half dollars (What!?!) in ancient NGC holders with the heat-stamp logo on the reverse instead of a hologram. The coins appear wildly undergraded, the holders look like they never saw the light of day since their encapsulation back in the late 1980s and the coins have taken on thin rings of blue and gold that is found on some of these old holder pieces. They are even from the same invoice.
•There were a surprisingly large number of certified "problem-free" 1918/7-D Buffalo nickels on the floor. I use quotes for "problem-free" since I don't believe all of them are truly problem-free. Regardless, it seemed as though one couldn't turn around without bumping into one of these coins.
•The 1901-O Barber quarter has enjoyed a rather steep price appreciation in the last few years and I think one dealer has cornered the market on such coins as I passed a table with twelve (that would be a full dozen) of this issue from F12 through AU55 and all certified.
•Charmy Harker is attempting to improve the ANA show from a dealer's perspective and if you want the show to get better, you may want to speak with her directly.
•Old green holder (OGH) PCGS classic gold is still disappearing.
•My belief is that we are in a very strong bear market for coins and that we will be in this market for some time. However, I suspect other dealers are attempting to wait the market out and have hardly, if at all, budged on prices. There were numerous coins that I liked that were priced no where near current market levels, in my opinion, and I assume either the coins will be sold full retail to clients who just have to have that issue or the coins will sit forever.
•I've often written that I attempt to buy the right coins at tomorrow's prices today, but I refuse to buy simply nice coins at market peak prices (plus!) when those prices have no basis in today's economy.
•There was a PCGS PR15 Gobrecht dollar on the bourse and it was way cool looking.
•The percentage of problem coins sold raw without and notation of the problems is staggering. This is especially true for Capped Bust, Seated Liberty, Reeded Edge and Barber coins.
•The Baltimore Inner Harbor is not plagued with crime violence or paranoia. Get over it.
•Several nice coins were offered to me at X+1 where X is the currently slabbed grade and X+1 is the higher grade. That is not an issue if the coin were fresh, special or truly undergraded. However, I knew that each of these coins had been submitted multiple times to the services only to never come back as X+1. This happens all the time, but I imagine that some folks need to raise cash and are now pushing these pieces harder and even pushing them to folks who should know better.
•One extremely experienced and knowledgeable client approached me about a dealer problem. A dealer he has worked with has been attempting to dictate what coins he should buy and with whom he should speak to on the bourse. I will not give other details, but this seems to me to be similar with an over-possessive boyfriend and one should be mighty careful if someone acts that way toward them.
•The coin hobby-industry has changed. With the advent of the internet most anyone can sell to anyone else. While this might lead to greater market efficiency in certain areas, it also has led to the decline of the local coin shop and now, I believe, to the decline (note; "decline" and not "demise") of the coin show. Fewer clients are attending shows and this can lead to reduced dealer hours or dealer days of attendance as well. It can be a downward death spiral.
•More dealers had watches in their cases, and in nearly every instance they would be Rolex watches, than I can ever remember. Is the watch market booming? Are dealers attempting to branch out? Do some need to sell their own watches? Coincidence? I don't know the answer, but suspect it might be due to several causes.
•We are in a bad market. There is a lot of value in getting to know an honest, trustworthy and knowledgeable dealer and establishing a relationship. It doesn't mean you have to spend a lot of money, but it pays to have the right folks on your side.
I will attempt to get my advance notice email out to my client list tonight and will attempt to update my website by Monday. However, if anyone would like to know what is new they may simply send me an email, or otherwise communicate to me, that they would like to be put onto my advance notice email list. This list gets sent out about once per month. Therefore, you will not be hammered with emails from me. I wish I could be more positive about this show and market, but I want to be honest with all.
The Baltimore coin show is one of the pillars of the coin show circuit and the fall show is likely the best of the three offerings from this city. In the past, the summer has typically been the weakest show while the spring and fall versions have been much more robust and optimistic. Some might say the spring show is better than the fall show and perhaps it is, but my experience has taught me to look forward to Baltimore in the fall. However, even with that historic optimism, I did not go into this event hoping for a record show. This, as it turns out, was a good thing.
I had neither a good nor easy show. It is my impression that this is similar to what a large number of other dealers experienced. No doubt there will be folks who claim to have sold record numbers of coins or who made a very high profit and I think some of those folks will be telling the complete truth. Some, though, might not and they will have their reasons for what they write or state. I would go on and on with paragraphs of information or might instead give some bullet points about what I witnessed and what I think; I will choose the latter.
•I've written in the past about how certified, circulated Barber half dollars have become more common on the bourse and likely first wrote about this around 2004. Now, however, it appears to be the turn of the early, lower circulated grades of Walking Liberty half dollars that are appearing certified in large numbers. These would be the pre-1933 coins in AG3 through F12. In the past these were pretty unusual to find certified, but now they are fairly easy. I don't think they make economic sense to certify, in general, but perhaps the higher grade pieces are already largely certified and this is the next frontier of liquidity.
•This is not a new observation for me, but I always scratch my head when it happens. I will have a coin and a client whom I know will not buy it, only for me to sell the coin to another dealer who then sells it to the original client for 30% than I had it listed for on my site. I don't know how this works and routinely chalk it up to my being the worst salesperson in the world.
•I ended up buying several pristine proof Franklin half dollars (What!?!) in ancient NGC holders with the heat-stamp logo on the reverse instead of a hologram. The coins appear wildly undergraded, the holders look like they never saw the light of day since their encapsulation back in the late 1980s and the coins have taken on thin rings of blue and gold that is found on some of these old holder pieces. They are even from the same invoice.
•There were a surprisingly large number of certified "problem-free" 1918/7-D Buffalo nickels on the floor. I use quotes for "problem-free" since I don't believe all of them are truly problem-free. Regardless, it seemed as though one couldn't turn around without bumping into one of these coins.
•The 1901-O Barber quarter has enjoyed a rather steep price appreciation in the last few years and I think one dealer has cornered the market on such coins as I passed a table with twelve (that would be a full dozen) of this issue from F12 through AU55 and all certified.
•Charmy Harker is attempting to improve the ANA show from a dealer's perspective and if you want the show to get better, you may want to speak with her directly.
•Old green holder (OGH) PCGS classic gold is still disappearing.
•My belief is that we are in a very strong bear market for coins and that we will be in this market for some time. However, I suspect other dealers are attempting to wait the market out and have hardly, if at all, budged on prices. There were numerous coins that I liked that were priced no where near current market levels, in my opinion, and I assume either the coins will be sold full retail to clients who just have to have that issue or the coins will sit forever.
•I've often written that I attempt to buy the right coins at tomorrow's prices today, but I refuse to buy simply nice coins at market peak prices (plus!) when those prices have no basis in today's economy.
•There was a PCGS PR15 Gobrecht dollar on the bourse and it was way cool looking.
•The percentage of problem coins sold raw without and notation of the problems is staggering. This is especially true for Capped Bust, Seated Liberty, Reeded Edge and Barber coins.
•The Baltimore Inner Harbor is not plagued with crime violence or paranoia. Get over it.
•Several nice coins were offered to me at X+1 where X is the currently slabbed grade and X+1 is the higher grade. That is not an issue if the coin were fresh, special or truly undergraded. However, I knew that each of these coins had been submitted multiple times to the services only to never come back as X+1. This happens all the time, but I imagine that some folks need to raise cash and are now pushing these pieces harder and even pushing them to folks who should know better.
•One extremely experienced and knowledgeable client approached me about a dealer problem. A dealer he has worked with has been attempting to dictate what coins he should buy and with whom he should speak to on the bourse. I will not give other details, but this seems to me to be similar with an over-possessive boyfriend and one should be mighty careful if someone acts that way toward them.
•The coin hobby-industry has changed. With the advent of the internet most anyone can sell to anyone else. While this might lead to greater market efficiency in certain areas, it also has led to the decline of the local coin shop and now, I believe, to the decline (note; "decline" and not "demise") of the coin show. Fewer clients are attending shows and this can lead to reduced dealer hours or dealer days of attendance as well. It can be a downward death spiral.
•More dealers had watches in their cases, and in nearly every instance they would be Rolex watches, than I can ever remember. Is the watch market booming? Are dealers attempting to branch out? Do some need to sell their own watches? Coincidence? I don't know the answer, but suspect it might be due to several causes.
•We are in a bad market. There is a lot of value in getting to know an honest, trustworthy and knowledgeable dealer and establishing a relationship. It doesn't mean you have to spend a lot of money, but it pays to have the right folks on your side.
I will attempt to get my advance notice email out to my client list tonight and will attempt to update my website by Monday. However, if anyone would like to know what is new they may simply send me an email, or otherwise communicate to me, that they would like to be put onto my advance notice email list. This list gets sent out about once per month. Therefore, you will not be hammered with emails from me. I wish I could be more positive about this show and market, but I want to be honest with all.
0
Comments
Thanks for the report!
My sense is that the current coin market feels awfully similar to the 1993 market - back when all the dealers at the monthly Parsippany looked bored and most of the inventories were pretty static.
Check out the Southern Gold Society
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Latin American Collection
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
Silly isn't it as some collectors aren't happy unless they know they are schmoozing with utmost elite dealers in this hobby and are willing to open their wallets to them at any price just for the privilege.
Successful BST (me as buyer) with: Collectorcoins, PipestonePete, JasonRiffeRareCoins
I absolutely hate this kind of thing. There's a gun show I used to attend which was very popular that used to have a lot of guns and DIRECTLY related accessories. Slowly they started allowing other crap in. Flashlights...beef jerky...political buttons...car stuff...misc little garbage that fits on the tables. They still advertise as a gun show but it's more of a crap show. Selling watches at a coin show is the start of this. Soon it will be a watch and jewelry show advertised as a coin show. Someone should drop the hammer on this right now.
Strange that there would be much of a market for these.
Thank you for a great report and your perspective on the coin market.
Best, SH
I'm printing this as it was so awesome.
Thank you
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Tom
I'm printing this as it was so awesome.
Thank you
mark
You should suggest a large font option for the board. Will make it easier to read
Great report Tom! I skipped due to being happy with my collection where it stands.
PCGS Registries
Box of 20
SeaEagleCoins: 11/14/54-4/5/12. Miss you Larry!
I also was prompted to go to your website and spin around!
Drunner
•This is not a new observation for me, but I always scratch my head when it happens. I will have a coin and a client whom I know will not buy it, only for me to sell the coin to another dealer who then sells it to the original client for 30% than I had it listed for on my site. I don't know how this works and routinely chalk it up to my being the worst salesperson in the world.
Silly isn't it as some collectors aren't happy unless they know they are schmoozing with utmost elite dealers in this hobby and are willing to open their wallets to them at any price just for the privilege.
I love your outlook on the Broadstruck ..
It makes a lot of sense to me especially in certain circles ..
It seemed not nearly as lively as I remembered it, even from the perspective of someone who focuses on world material while keeping a watchful eye on the US market. I bought nothing, and was utterly bored. Still, I had a good show because I wasn't at work (yay!), had dinner with my niece and caught up with several friends. CRO, Andy Lustig and the good Colonel are always fun to talk to. I almost gave Perkins a heart attack. (Not a good thing!) Laura groused at me *and* tried to help me with my dog -- all in the same breath. (She's an enigma, I love her, but admittedly she's a character!)
I also ran into a Mike Brady look-alike, who surprisingly totally ignored me. I'll just assume he was very busy at that moment.
EVP
How does one get a hater to stop hating?
I can be reached at evillageprowler@gmail.com
Great report with a lot of perspective. Thanks for sharing your observations!
I absolutely hate this kind of thing. There's a gun show I used to attend which was very popular that used to have a lot of guns and DIRECTLY related accessories. Slowly they started allowing other crap in. Flashlights...beef jerky...political buttons...car stuff...misc little garbage that fits on the tables. They still advertise as a gun show but it's more of a crap show. Selling watches at a coin show is the start of this. Soon it will be a watch and jewelry show advertised as a coin show. Someone should drop the hammer on this right now.
It's called survival as a dealer .. Maybe without these type of dealers then the possibility could be that the show ceases to exist ..I understand your point , but some people do attend and enjoy the cross collectibles.. Now if they were selling (12) packs of Hanes underwear and Bulk Ivory soap at wholesale then I see a problem ..
As for the show, it might be a good show if the dealers didn't start packing up at 1:30 on Saturday.
Gary
I was very much a beginner in those days (filling up my Dansco albums with circulated Mercs, Walkers and Morgans), but I don't remember seeing a whole lot of cool coins. My impression was that most nice coins were in the hands of people who wouldn't sell them at the then-current diminished prices - unless they had to, that is.
Check out the Southern Gold Society
Great report with a lot of perspective. Thanks for sharing your observations!
I absolutely hate this kind of thing. There's a gun show I used to attend which was very popular that used to have a lot of guns and DIRECTLY related accessories. Slowly they started allowing other crap in. Flashlights...beef jerky...political buttons...car stuff...misc little garbage that fits on the tables. They still advertise as a gun show but it's more of a crap show. Selling watches at a coin show is the start of this. Soon it will be a watch and jewelry show advertised as a coin show. Someone should drop the hammer on this right now.
Isn't Long Beach morphing like this?
Personally I don't mind as it may help to keep a show viable that wouldn't otherwise be.
- Jim
The unemployed poor are being insured in exchange for the middle class which are being placed in a situation of unaffordable Health insurance. This is the bite out of the middle of the road collector coins.
I appreciate and enjoyed it.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
Great report, and interesting observation on the qty of slabbed low grade walkers.
Strange that there would be much of a market for these.
I have noticed this trend with low-end, circulated, early, certified Walker coins, as well.
Your new Franklins sound really NICE!!
Thanks for the report, Tom.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I hope everyone doesn't take this as a political slant(which it is) but I believe it is very relative. I had a good customer visit me yesterday. Small business owner who has to supply health insurance to his employees. His business is failing due to the costs of health insurance. His insurance rates are based on each individual. The lowest increase from this year to next year is 2X while the worst is 5X! My insurance for a plan worse than I have is doubling for next year. Instead of spending several thousand he was trying to sell.
The unemployed poor are being insured in exchange for the middle class which are being placed in a situation of unaffordable Health insurance. This is the bite out of the middle of the road collector coins.
That's a good thing.
"Look up, old boy, and see what you get." -William Bonney.
I found the observation about buying at the higher price very interesting. I had a coin a while back listed at $1,250, it didn't sell, so I reduced the price to $1,050. It still didn't sell, so I consigned it to auction, where it hammered for $1,800.
Some other very interesting observations in Tom's report. Thank you for posting it!
An authorized PCGS dealer, and a contributor to the Red Book.
Joseph J. Singleton - First Superintendent of the U.S. Branch Mint in Dahlonega Georgia
Findley Ridge Collection
About Findley Ridge
Really interesting stuff, TomB! Appreciate the report.
Noted ms70's comments about gun shows. There was a gun show in the other side of the convention center during the recent PAN show. It was like a flea market. AND they charge $8 to get in!
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
forum. I always read your posts and have learned many things from you over the years
we have been members of the forum. Thanks again, Cheers, RickO
Stuart
Collect 18th & 19th Century US Type Coins, Silver Dollars, $20 Gold Double Eagles and World Crowns & Talers with High Eye Appeal
"Luck is what happens when Preparation meets Opportunity"
Tom
I honestly don't think this is a "bad" market. It may be more challenging than it was 3-5 years ago, but I would not call it bad. Actually we have been doing a strong amount of retail, and did a good amount of retail in Baltimore. I would say though that the retail is at a lower price point and coin quality is more important, even on cheaper coins. Our number of invoices is probably as strong as it has been, but our average invoice amount is less.
For one example, we are actually starting to sell a lot of classic commemoratives. However they have to be pleasing looking, and have to be priced at the "real" current market levels, which is MUCH less than 5-10 years ago. But, at the current levels, they are beginning to be very price attractive to rank and file collectors.
Collectors still want coins and are still very interested in coins. Disposable income is a bit tight in the present environment, and, with the Internet, collectors have more options than ever to choose where to shop.
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
The Reeded Edge
The Penny Lady®
Thank you
I've been told I tolerate fools poorly...that may explain things if I have a problem with you. Current ebay items - Nothing at the moment
U.S. Type Set
and it sets us apart from practitioners and consultants. Gregor