Why are Classic Commems so completely dead?

MrEureka · October 2, 2015 7:35AM

Of course, the wildly toned ones are still very popular and expensive. But anything short of that is completely dead.

I'm sure there are multiple reasons for this, but I think the biggest problem is that slabs and internet auctions have made it so easy to find the coins that they're no longer any fun to collect.

Agreed?

pennyannie · October 2, 2015 7:46AM

I agree, I could probably start in 10 minutes and complete a set in a couple of hours on the internet.

I actually like them and did have a set until 2008

BillJones · October 2, 2015 7:46AM

I did not have much interest in them before I become a dealer. The reason was they commemorated a historical event, but they were not made when the event occurred. As a dealer got interested in them, there were a couple that I bought only to fill the holes, not because I through that they were desirable coins. The Cincinnati led this list. It commemorates nothing but greed.

Some them have really ugly or poorly done designs. These include both Akansas coins, Rhode Island, Washington-Carver and Wisconsin.

Bochiman · October 2, 2015 7:47AM

I can't speak for all, but for me:

* Too many
* Too varied in designs (a few appeal to me, most don't)
* Not interesting (for the most part)
* They are specific to what they were issued for and most don't appeal to me
* Nothing "lasting" about them

Modern commems fall into the same pattern of thinking, for me, and so I feel the same way.

RedTiger · October 2, 2015 7:53AM

One factor is that many collectors that complete the 50 or 144 coin set, tend to want to sell it soon after completion, keeping demand low. I tend to believe this is less true for other sets such as a type set, a Morgan set, or a Lincoln set. Another factor is the lack of hoarders. A tiny group of key date hoarders (some are dealers) tends to drive up the prices way beyond normal collector demand, for some large mintage coins such as the 1909 S VDB cent, 1916-D dime. I'd guess there are less than ten such hoarders of classic commems. Declining prices means that dealers would rather not hold much inventory in the series, fearing the seemingly never ending price declines will continue.

The large number of recent issues from the U.S. mint is another drain. Some of the collectors of the post 1982 commems might have been attracted to classic commems in the past. Similar to those that might be doing a silver American Eagle set or a gold spouse set, or any number of other new coin sets.

Most collectors might opine that while there are a few nice designs, a few interesting coins, there are a large number of "boring" coins in the set. Even the 50-coin set is a non-trivial amount of money for most collectors. For the 1% to 5% that find the cost of a set, to be a trivial amount of money, there tend to be much more interesting coins to collect.

BillJones · October 2, 2015 7:57AM

The fact that prices have gone up and down like a yo-yo has not helped. A lot of collectors have lost a lot of money from these ups and downs. There have also been market manipulations that have a bad taste in many collectors' mouths.

Coin Finder · October 2, 2015 8:08AM

Some of the Oregon Trail 1939's went for bid at the latest Heritage sale. Not bad but way off the highs and I have no idea why. I think they will come back, when is a mystery..

BillJones · October 2, 2015 8:14AM

<< Some of the Oregon Trail 1939's went for bid at the latest Heritage sale. Not bad but way off the highs and I have no idea why. I think they will come back, when is a mystery.. >>

The only thing the 1939 Oregon half dollars have going for them are low mintages, which was a reflection of market manipulation when they were issued. Those coins should not have been made in the first place. As a collector, who has a 52 piece type set, I have no interest in them.

Unknown · October 2, 2015 8:19AM

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Christos · October 2, 2015 8:31AM

<< Some of the Oregon Trail 1939's went for bid at the latest Heritage sale. Not bad but way off the highs and I have no idea why. I think they will come back, when is a mystery.. >>

I have a very nice( one of the series designs I like) Oregon Trail 38-S PCGS MS67+ CAC that lists at 1750.00 and about 8 months ago I could not even get a hit at 700.00. A 67+ is like a 69+ for the series. If they are not wild colors and or a pop 1 of 1 coin they have very little value. Guess I will just put it away for the great great great grand kids and hope they can do better with it.

Baley · October 2, 2015 8:31AM

Same problem with all moderns: High mintage, low attrition, high competition for collector dollars in terms of numbers of other choices, resulting in low relative demand.

30 years ago, classic commems were cool. Now they're just "another made-for-collectors" novelty, in competition with recent NCLT, Zombucks and the like, and Dan Carr's offerings

FullStrike · October 2, 2015 8:40AM

When faced with a modern 1 oz Gold American Eagle in MS69. vs an Old Classic Silver Commemorative Half Dollar in mediocre condition .....

which do most people choose?

At the same price , Gold looks really good.

Kaline6 · October 2, 2015 9:30AM

To me, the problem is that they're not coins; they're souvenirs. Except in rare cases, they don't conjure up memories of childhood; they don't convey a sense of awe in their history, like you'd get holding a Henry VI groat.

A brief look at a Mercury dime brings a thousand associations, some of which prompt me to collect. A brief look at a Grant with star, not so much.

Justacommeman · October 2, 2015 9:37AM

<< Of course, the wildly toned ones are still very popular and expensive. But anything short of that is completely dead.

I'm sure there are multiple reasons for this, but I think the biggest problem is that slabs and internet auctions have made it so easy to find the coins that they're no longer any fun to collect.

Agreed? >>

Yes. Asked and answered.

As stated the monster toned market is alive and well. Civil war related is ok. When people ask me about helping them with a 50 piece set I steer them away. There are just too many clunkers in the group. The 144 piece set would bore me to tears. I often suggest a run of Oregon Trails or a 1892-1921 subset.

mark

bidask · October 2, 2015 9:38AM

<< Of course, the wildly toned ones are still very popular and expensive. But anything short of that is completely dead.

I'm sure there are multiple reasons for this, but I think the biggest problem is that slabs and internet auctions have made it so easy to find the coins that they're no longer any fun to collect.

Agreed? >>

Yep agree ...

To many of them around.

I don't collect them but I imagine one could still have fun collecting or building a set. 😊

bidask · October 2, 2015 9:41AM

<< The fact that prices have gone up and down like a yo-yo has not helped. A lot of collectors have lost a lot of money from these ups and downs. There have also been market manipulations that have a bad taste in many collectors' mouths. >>

oh like the low leaf quarter? 😛

TopographicOceans · October 2, 2015 9:41AM

Other options are more appealing to collectors.

Most were minted from a period when contemporizes are no longer alive and today's collectors see the mint pumping commemoratives every few months. But maybe they find those more relevant?

ms71 · October 2, 2015 9:42AM

They've been on a very long, steady decline value-wise. Since their peak in 1989, most (except the very few "keys") have lost around 90% of their market value, give or take a little. Even the keys have typically lost 60%-75%. Sure, the one-in-a-bazillion spectacular flaming toner brings huge bucks. But for the average collector, it certainly doesn't seem like an attractive area to sink any sizeable resources into.

Proofmorgan · October 2, 2015 9:43AM

This all being said, why do dealers want insane prices for them and they sit in their inventory for years? There are quite a few going for double and triple guide. The dealers slowly drop the price, but they still don't sell because they are way off the mark. I'm trying to put together an OGH set currently, but it is very tough. I've had to pass on quite a few. Ex: A decent coin OGH MS65 will bring MS66-67 money of some nice coins in newer holders. I'm not sure that the set it even possible, considering Hawaii and other tough coins.

ms71 · October 2, 2015 9:48AM

So true - so many you see are priced way over what the market will bear, and you see them in the same dealer's case at shows for, literally, years.

homerunhall · October 2, 2015 10:25AM

Been buying them heavily for past three or four years and they keep going down in price and I keep buying. Some illusions die hard I guess. I still love them.

hrh

mustangmanbob · October 2, 2015 10:39AM

Holding inventory for years while prices steadily decrease: Unique business model. Did they attend the Enron School of Business?

Price of Silver: Down
Average Price of this set: Way Down
Did they circulate when virtually anyone was young, and could find one in change: No

Sounds like Titanic: Part 2

crazyhounddog · October 2, 2015 10:39AM

MrEureka,
I don't see it that way! Well, maybe. But look at the bright side of this. A guy can pick up a NICE complete set and just sit on it. I think, in time, they will do just fine. A good idea for your great, great grandson. No, seriously I find many of them nice and I do own a few.

RYK · October 2, 2015 10:44AM

I have always enjoyed looking at them in auction boxes, dealer cases, and collectors' collections.

They are fun to collect but would be a lousy place to put your money, IMO. Better to just look at photos of the spectacular toners on the internet.

mozin · October 2, 2015 10:50AM

<< Been buying them heavily for past three or four years and they keep going down in price and I keep buying. Some illusions die hard I guess. I still love them.

hrh >>

Same with me.

TURBO · October 2, 2015 10:51AM

Dealers offer a few bucks over spot and sell them at many times over. How can you go wrong with that?

mrearlygold · October 2, 2015 11:56AM

I bought a monster MS-67 Oregon at an auction a couple weeks ago in a PCGS holder with a CAC sticker on it. It's not for resale at this time.

3stars · October 2, 2015 12:00PM

How have prices for the gold side of the classic commems been doing? Always thought that would be a fun subset to collect, except for the pan pac slugs

TomB · October 2, 2015 12:17PM

I believe part of the perception of their "dead-ness", if that might be a term, is how they were pumped up prior to their fall. The limited availability, vs. market demand, of TPG certified coins likely made them seem much more scarce than they were in high grade. This gave them an extra lofty perch to fall from and it has really stung. I'm no savant about these; heck, back in 1992 I was thinking they would rebound at any time and I am still waiting for anything more than a dead-cat bounce.

SeattleSlammer · October 2, 2015 12:27PM

I like the toners with luster.
As for the OP's title question, they've always been dead!
Relatively speaking almost everything died in 1989.

davewesen · October 2, 2015 1:13PM

I think there are to many survivors in high grades.

If homerunhall keeps on buying, the strategy will be successful as long as he does not run out of money.

I have wondered what percentage of a modern issue would be needed to move market, as there have been some interesting 'matte proofs' in modern commemorative sets.

roadrunner · October 2, 2015 1:19PM

The only thing that will solve the problem is a much bigger collector/investor base or dealer promotions. I don't think there have been any real active promotions on these since the early 1990's. It wasn't until slabbing came out that everyone realized that a "too" large % of the original mintages survive.

Collecting commems is like stamp collecting. Just too many designs. That means a lot of time and effort to learn the nuances of many coins....making mistakes all along the way. Many collectors focus on one or a couple coin types/denominations and leave it at that. So how has stamp collecting done in the past 25 years?

topstuf · October 2, 2015 1:55PM

What's needed is a video game where the hero racks up commems for the monsters he shoots.

Zoins · October 2, 2015 3:10PM

As mentioned, there is still demand for high grade toners so there is demand.

As for the rest, my guess is that it's supply vs. demand:

Why so much supply? These were collector coins so many remained high grade.

Why so little demand? Too many different designs and years for a cohesive series.

That being said, it can be a great and fun way to collect high grade classics for collectors. What's not to like? Does there need to be high prices to make collecting fun?

Kove · October 2, 2015 3:19PM

Heritage has been auctioning off a bunch of my personal commems starting at the August ANA. Saying that I'm taking a bath financially on those coins wouldn't even begin to describe how weak that market is right now. And almost all of it is high grade PCGS/CAC.

But, it was a lot of fun building the set.

Zoins · October 2, 2015 3:27PM

The market is generally weak right now, irrespective of classic commems, so there may be more than one thing at work.

Christos · October 2, 2015 3:55PM

<< To me, the problem is that they're not coins; they're souvenirs. Except in rare cases, they don't conjure up memories of childhood; they don't convey a sense of awe in their history, like you'd get holding a Henry VI groat.

A brief look at a Mercury dime brings a thousand associations, some of which prompt me to collect. A brief look at a Grant with star, not so much. >>

I think this design has a lot of history. This is my 67+ CAC The color is not wild enough and have thought about cracking it and putting in an album again for a couple years.

coinkat · October 2, 2015 8:45PM

The three tiered market for commems is a product of how collecting has evolved over the past 20 years or so...

Some terrific designs that not only capture the history of the subject but also the times in which the coins were struck.

ricko · October 2, 2015 11:07PM

I collected them from states I lived in..... there was not one for Florida, so had to do with a state token....made a nice set with a personal history touch. Cheers, RickO

ms71 · October 2, 2015 11:07PM

As to the question on how the classic gold commems have been doing - the answer is that they are doing just as badly or worse, except for the $50 Panama-Pacifics. Here again, most have lost around 90% since the peak, give or take a little. For the $50 Pan-Pacs, it's more like 20%. And my percentages reflect prices in then-year dollars, so the actual decline in value is significantly more substantial.

TopographicOceans · October 2, 2015 11:10PM

I still have too many silver commemoratives.
Back in 2012 I had Mark Feld (before he joined Heritage) handle a dozen I had that I paid $6,500 for.
He even got me a piece of the juice from Heritage and I still lost about $1,500 (~25% loss) on them.

For my type set, I just need one and i went with an Antietam. But I also have a California and a San Diego, all for personal reasons.
Plus I have my first slab I ever purchased - an AGC Illinois.
These are all keepers for me, but I don't plan on ever buying another one.

topstuf · October 2, 2015 11:20PM

The lack of interest in history in younger people and the resultant ignorance is showing in all mementos of past US history.
I think they can grasp what was used as everyday money but have little interest in what we used to think warranted memorializing.

Even there, the interest is waning.
Wanna buy some so-so 19th century coins?

oih82w8 · October 2, 2015 11:30PM

I don't plan on expanding my four Classic Commemoratives in my Major U.S. Type Coins from 1800 collection

1915-S/S Panama Pacific

1933-D Oregon TDO

1935-P Texas

1936-D San Diego QDO & RPD

but you guys have shown some excellent examples of others for consideration.

As far as the series goes, I have no interest in acquiring all of them, only a select few for me.

keets · October 2, 2015 11:48PM

I think in some regard they are still too expensive. my approach to these has always been that there is no reason to buy in haste because the available supply on many/most is too large, even with the small mintage issues.

Eagleguy · October 2, 2015 11:53PM

<< Heritage has been auctioning off a bunch of my personal commems starting at the August ANA. Saying that I'm taking a bath financially on those coins wouldn't even begin to describe how weak that market is right now. And almost all of it is high grade PCGS/CAC.

But, it was a lot of fun building the set. >>

Same here. Even my toners and keys didn't sell for as much as I'd hoped.

JH

johnny9434 · October 3, 2015 2:52AM

they got to expensive for me. i just might start looking into it now since prices have come down. jmo

TwoSides2aCoin · October 3, 2015 3:49AM

I've never actively pursued them, except for the Lafayette Dollar and Stone Mountains that weren't messed up. They intrigued me, as eye appeal go. Several others found me when I wasn't looking. Still, the series will not die, completely.

Zoins · October 3, 2015 3:55AM

Was there ever high demand for the series other than due to marketing promotions? This is from another thread:

<< Historically, price movements in generic commems have much more to do with major marketing efforts than growing base line popularity. >>

As mentioned by others, the series may be quiet because prices are still too high.

To more directly answer Andy's question "Why are Classic Commems so completely dead?" - perhaps the reason is because there's been no promotion lately?

golden · October 3, 2015 4:01AM

<< I think in some regard they are still too expensive. my approach to these has always been that there is no reason to buy in haste because the available supply on many/most is too large, even with the small mintage issues. >>

Julian · October 3, 2015 11:51AM

I disagree. I sell them almost daily. To me they are a great historic series; 50 different silver designs. There are also many mint-marked issues that are very scarce.

tcmitssr · October 3, 2015 6:47PM

<< I disagree. I sell them almost daily. To me they are a great historic series; 50 different silver designs. There are also many mint-marked issues that are very scarce. >>

I agree Julian. I'll gladly and happily keep my 50 piece, toners typeset collection in PCGS Secure Plus with the ever-popular green and gold stickers (one or the other on each) until some far future date. I'm not concerned they won't sell for strong prices.

Why are Classic Commems so completely dead?

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