SPEAK UP - U.S. Coins Are Now Losing Investments
rogerdiehl
Posts: 97 ✭✭
I hope to catch some people's attention because their U.S. Coin collections are losing (yes, losing) a tremendous amount of value - and it isn't happening slowly. And it isn't just the new "Modern" coins.
This is extremely important for those who are or want to someday be on the selling side of U.S. Coins. For the collector - if you buy a great, high grade coin today - you are a loser - plain and simple....
Example - please feel free to do your own research (particularly before you buy any more coins)....
http://www.pcgs.com/pricehistory#/?=5876-67+,5876-67
This is the 5 year chart of the PCGS pricing of a 1964-P Washington Quarter.
In early 2010, there were no more than 19 MS-67, 1964-P Washington Quarters with none better and the price was $4,500.
Today - yes today - there are still only 19 MS-67, 1964-P Washington Quarters with none better, but the price is $1000.
That's right a 78% lose in value. This is the Great Depression of coin collecting.
What happened ??? Everyone is saying that coin values are increasing daily ????
Do the dealers even know this is happening ??????? They have to be screaming bloody murder....
What happened .... Plus'ing (+) happened.
In 2010, PCGS, unilaterally added their own subjective grading scheme to the mix. All of a sudden those 19 MS-67's were not all the same. 17 of those MS-67's became second best - no longer the top pop. 2 of the MS-67's were submitted to PCGS and received a plus - which somehow makes them "better" although some aspects of the plus'ing are questionable - what exactly is great "eye appeal" ???
So while the 17 MS-67's dropped from a value of $4500 to $1000 today (I assume they must have never been screened for a plus), the 2 MS-67+ coins have increased in value from $4500 to $15,000. That's right a 300% increase in value for subjective, inconsistently applied grading (I doubt you can call that grading).
Who is going to pay $15,000 for those 2 MS-67+ coins ??? They aren't anything close to MS-68's.
Speak up....particularly the dealers, us collectors have little or no voice in this.
I was thinking of going for an MS-67, 1964-P Washington quarter I saw on Ebay, but now I've talked myself out of that unless it comes down from its current $989 measly price.
This is extremely important for those who are or want to someday be on the selling side of U.S. Coins. For the collector - if you buy a great, high grade coin today - you are a loser - plain and simple....
Example - please feel free to do your own research (particularly before you buy any more coins)....
http://www.pcgs.com/pricehistory#/?=5876-67+,5876-67
This is the 5 year chart of the PCGS pricing of a 1964-P Washington Quarter.
In early 2010, there were no more than 19 MS-67, 1964-P Washington Quarters with none better and the price was $4,500.
Today - yes today - there are still only 19 MS-67, 1964-P Washington Quarters with none better, but the price is $1000.
That's right a 78% lose in value. This is the Great Depression of coin collecting.
What happened ??? Everyone is saying that coin values are increasing daily ????
Do the dealers even know this is happening ??????? They have to be screaming bloody murder....
What happened .... Plus'ing (+) happened.
In 2010, PCGS, unilaterally added their own subjective grading scheme to the mix. All of a sudden those 19 MS-67's were not all the same. 17 of those MS-67's became second best - no longer the top pop. 2 of the MS-67's were submitted to PCGS and received a plus - which somehow makes them "better" although some aspects of the plus'ing are questionable - what exactly is great "eye appeal" ???
So while the 17 MS-67's dropped from a value of $4500 to $1000 today (I assume they must have never been screened for a plus), the 2 MS-67+ coins have increased in value from $4500 to $15,000. That's right a 300% increase in value for subjective, inconsistently applied grading (I doubt you can call that grading).
Who is going to pay $15,000 for those 2 MS-67+ coins ??? They aren't anything close to MS-68's.
Speak up....particularly the dealers, us collectors have little or no voice in this.
I was thinking of going for an MS-67, 1964-P Washington quarter I saw on Ebay, but now I've talked myself out of that unless it comes down from its current $989 measly price.
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B. Markets go up and down.
C. Those who are ignorant of the realities of the current market may find pleasant or unpleasant surprises.
D. If investing is the goal, there are better options.
E. Not all segments of the market move in the same direction at the same time.
F. Playing around with common coins at uncommon prices (condition rarities) can be fickle.
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• Coins like a 1964 Washington Quarter were saved by the roll. Anyone who thinks that they have the "tied finest known" when they buy an MS-67 or 67+, with a very "limited supply" is kidding themselves. The chances that another one or a better one will be graded are not beyond realm of possibility.
• The rising auction house buyers' fees are hurting consigners and making purchases at auction less attractive. The high buyers' fees make it hard for most collectors to recoup what they have spent on their coins. This depresses the market.
• Many young people don't seem to be interested in collecting, and many of them have diminished economic resources and expectations.
• The power and influence of CAC has taken a lot of the fun out collecting for those us who have been in the hobby for many, many years. When you have spent decades building a collection only to find that it must be re-graded to be acceptable to many people in the market, it hurts your enthusiasm for the hobby, at least it has for me. To say that the grade on a coin is invalidated because one man says so is not a positive factor in the market. As I have said before no one man should have that much power.
Some pretty nice coins can be bought for what that new IPhone costs.
BTW glad I sold all them Quarters four years ago now....
> 1964 Washington Quarters are not worth $4500, yesterday or today. I don't expect they will be worth this amount in 2045.
> Who is "everyone" saying coin values are increasing daily? As I see it, values of "a coin basket" have been going down since the recession.
> Dealers make money on spreads, smart ones practice inventory management and watch turns. Rising prices create more customer demand.
> The coin "market" is small, full of bit players, relatively illiquid, thinly traded, and as such has has wide spreads. Bullion is a more efficient market.
> I like Washington Quarters probably more than most, but if you're looking for appreciation, there are far better choices in US coins.
Another factor is the view of supply and the 1964 was stashed away and there are a decent amount of unc rolls.
Also, the people in charge of the price guides and that are consulting for prices on the upgrades of 67+ $15,000 is stupid of course.......any people on the boards come up with that price....uhhhhhh....hmmm? My personal feeling is that those people who have registry sets should not be aloud to advise jaime at PCGS. This whole industry has always been about influence at this level.
I believe most collectors would say investing in an ultra high grade modern date coin is a very risky business.
I know I never have and never will.
I believe it's a fool's game to chase these low pop numbers modern coins.
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The 64 quarter is a prime example it was made in giant numbers over a few years it is not rare and never was. Grade rarity of modern and simi-modern coins is a bubble there is implosion of the prices in many instance even real MS70/PR70 many are seeing lower prices and very few buyers.
No one I know is saying coins are increasing daily , unless there the TV hucksters or Telemarketers.
Today - yes today - there are still only 19 MS-67, 1964-P Washington Quarters with none better, but the price is $1000.
That's right a 78% lose in value. This is the Great Depression of coin collecting.
Consider that there were over a half a billion of these made, and the following year silver was being withdrawn from circulation. Silver coinage from this era was saved in bulk, both uncirculated and circulated because the silver content exceeded the face value of the coins. During these intervening years, all of this silver has been traded as "junk silver" in bags as a commodity. Besides being saved in bags, rolls of coins were being saved in mass quantities at the time as well, mostly in uncirculated rolls. 1964-P quarters are one of the most common dates available.
For this reason, condition census speculation in 1964-P quarters would be one of my last choices for maintaining value in a coin collection. If there's a Great Depression in coin collecting going on, it's not because of this particular coin.
My opinion is that coin collecting will remain as one of the best ways to keep stored value in collectible form, especially in the current monetary environment.
I knew it would happen.
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Chasing registry points on modern coins is not for the faint of heart. Anytime you have a 30x multiplier for one grade point there is great potential for volatility.
If you want to track US coin market performance I would suggest just referencing the PCGS CU3000 or the parts that make it up. Using the simplest of charting techniques on the 10 year chart, I would expect a 5% further pullback on the CU3000. The 30 yr chart is a different animal.
CU3000
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It really takes a combination of eye appeal and rarity for a coin to rise in value over the years, consistently. There may be tops,
and no increase in value for a time, but certain attributes will always( almost) give the intelligent collector
profit and comfort in the right choices.
How to avoid a decrease in price because of more coins of the same date/grade coming out? Difficult to say the least.
Most recent example- 1912-S liberty nickel in MS 66. When I collected this series in the early 2000's, the total pop remained 8 for 7 years,
and the serious collectors could not account for more than 4 examples. My 12-S sold for 25K in March 2006, and the JHF example sold for 30K in Feb, 2014.
Both of these coins were PQ for grade. Then starting around 3 years ago, over 15 more were graded 66 by PCGS, And several appeared in one auction, bringing around 10,000.
PC Guides are now 14,000.
When a scarce or rare coin is no longer, and the demand is not as great as the new supply, prices will go down.
This problem will seldom happen when the coin is known to have a limited low pop, no possibility of rolls being discovered, and is in a series
that seems to continue to have avid collectors over long periods of time.
Name some, and we can discuss.
For virtually every other hobby (everything from watching sports, sailing, biking, crafting, scrapbooking, etc), once you're done the activity, there is little if any resale value to most of what you've accumulated. No refunds on the money spend on materials, gas, huge amounts of time invested, etc.
With most coins at least there is some "rebate" when it comes time to sell. But that does not mean it will be a complete rebate of every dollar that was spent, let alone guaranteeing a profit.
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<< <i>Why anyone would pay more than melt for a 64-P quarter, regardless of grade, is really the question. >>
Why would anyone pay more than melt for a worn out and ugly 1916 dime just because there's a little bit of a "D" left on the reverse?
Why would anyone pay more than melt for an 1822 dime that isn't even "as made"?
Why do collectors pay more than melt for any coin? An 1856 cent has only a few cents worth of metal even if it's unworn.
"The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts while the stupid ones are full of confidence"
I started on my Morgan and Peace PCGS collection in 2009. I have all the Peace dollars except 35-S in MS (waiting for a nice one to catch my eye), and an XF 34-S. My Morgan collection is 70% complete, and MS where I can afford them. Average cost per coin is probably around $200. Starting to stretch 2-3x past that on new additions.
I'm not going to top any registry sets, but I am having fun.
Looking back on what I've paid for the past 6 years: prices have held fine, with a small steady increase.
In 2010 the PCGS Price Guide was close to $3K. The MS67FB Pop was 40 with none higher.
I bought one and over paid for a very nice example with great luster.
Plus grading came out.
Many examples were just plain cracked out and resubmitted (no, not mine).
Now there are 57 in MS67FB with 2 finer in 67+FB!!!
Really? 19 new examples have magically appeared in the last couple of years? Ummm, NO!
People now think these are a dime a dozen based on the pops alone, or so it seems.
PCGS Price Guide says $2,350 but that is wayyyyyy wrong.
Plenty of PCGS MS67FB examples have sold between $1,100-$1,500! Even including CAC examples!
The PCGS Price Guide should be close to $1,350 based on auctions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
EDIT: However, addressing the OP's word choice of "INVESTMENT"....no, I was not expecting my 67FB to be an investment
but I did not really expect to lose thousands of dollars either. If one is really going after an investment they should go after
coins that are truly rare and always in high demand, possibly avoiding the majority of the 20th and 21st Centuries completely.
Looking for Top Pop Mercury Dime Varieties & High Grade Mercury Dime Toners.
<< <i>• Some prices have been driven by "registry mania." When that "malady" passes for some people, prices came down.
• Coins like a 1964 Washington Quarter were saved by the roll. Anyone who thinks that they have the "tied finest known" when they buy an MS-67 or 67+, with a very "limited supply" is kidding themselves. The chances that another one or a better one will be graded are not beyond realm of possibility.
• The rising auction house buyers' fees are hurting consigners and making purchases at auction less attractive. The high buyers' fees make it hard for most collectors to recoup what they have spent on their coins. This depresses the market.
• Many young people don't seem to be interested in collecting, and many of them have diminished economic resources and expectations.
• The power and influence of CAC has taken a lot of the fun out collecting for those us who have been in the hobby for many, many years. When you have spent decades building a collection only to find that it must be re-graded to be acceptable to many people in the market, it hurts your enthusiasm for the hobby, at least it has for me. To say that the grade on a coin is invalidated because one man says so is not a positive factor in the market. As I have said before no one man should have that much power. >>
I don't think it could be said much better than this...
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Hoard the keys.
<< <i>I only know that collector grades for common key dates have been falling by 10-25% for last year or so.[/q
The upper market fueled by record stock market ,free money have boosted the upper coins .. the bottom coins getting smashed for awhile
Actions for the 1964 Quarter PCGS 67 have ranged $1,000 - $ 1,100..
The company had numerous legal issues over the years and filed for bankruptcy last year, so the disclaimer probably arose from his legal troubles.
I'm paraphrasing except for the bold The rare coin market is thinly traded and capitalized and when you sell your coins there may be a significant loss - or the market may be non-existent.
So caveat emptor.
<< <i>You've picked a poor example to state your case.
I believe most collectors would say investing in an ultra high grade modern date coin is a very risky business.
I know I never have and never will.
I believe it's a fool's game to chase these low pop numbers modern coins. >>
<< <i>You've picked a poor example to state your case.
I believe most collectors would say investing in an ultra high grade modern date coin is a very risky business.
I know I never have and never will.
I believe it's a fool's game to chase these low pop numbers modern coins. >>
...And I'm not going to be the one to say I told you so when there's no new generation of collectors. I'm
not going to say it because it's the mainstream collector that will get kicked the hardest and moderns that
will come back first... ...just like in 1996.
Anyone buying numbers instead of coins is a fool but, so too, are people who buy rarities for investment or
because it's popular.
If you tell a whole generation of collectors their coins are junk the ones who are left are not going to care
about what you're collecting. The hobby has improved since 1999 in this regard but every newbie is still
going to hear how his coins and his white whales are just garbage and he should be buying something more
"collectible".
<< <i>Hannes Tulving (The Tulving company) had the best disclaimer I have ever seen.
The company had numerous legal issues over the years and filed for bankruptcy last year, so the disclaimer probably arose from his legal troubles.
I'm paraphrasing except for the bold The rare coin market is thinly traded and capitalized and when you sell your coins there may be a significant loss - or the market may be non-existent.
So caveat emptor . >>
Considering the FTC eventually fined and shutdown Haynes Tulving in the early 1990's, it's no surprise they added a disclaimer when they returned for round 2. What's missing from that disclaimer, is that the dealer can you sell you over-graded coins that immediately put you underwater for life. And that has nothing do with markets being thinly traded, your capitalization, etc. Certainly if you pay $1,000 for a coin worth $200 that market is non-existant at the price you're in at. But the market certainly exists at the $200 level. The sellers that work for that kind of massive markup can never buy those coins back w/o alerting collectors to the problem. So that market is non-existant in that situation.
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<< <i>You've picked a poor example to state your case.
I believe most collectors would say investing in an ultra high grade modern date coin is a very risky business.
I know I never have and never will.
I believe it's a fool's game to chase these low pop numbers modern coins. >>
But with the low pop circulation strikes, there's opportunity to be had. I wouldn't disregard what cladking has been saying about them.
The problem is auction records of substandard coins being used to value all the market.
Roger. I can not speak for the 2nd coin recently graded, but my 1964-P MS67+ quarter (former pop 1/0) is close to an MS68 in quality. I actually was seeking an MS68 when I submitted it a few years back. It may just make an MS68 down the road. I'll post a picture of it shortly.
Wondercoin
When I see $$$ numbers being quoted for these quarters in the highest grades I automatically think of all the scarcer classic coins you could buy instead.
Successful BST deals with mustangt and jesbroken. Now EVERYTHING is for sale.
The CDN graphs also illustrate this by far. The CCDN Coin Market Index for May 1 2015 is 985.91 vs 1000 for Jan 1990 baseline. Adjusted for inflation this is dismal for coin market. Look at losses people are taking on HOF Dollars. The CDN Quarterly I for April 2015 shows horrible losses on type dimes (Barber and Lib Seated w legend) in MS63 and MS65.
I have a number of US and World vintage coins I have blown out recently starting at 9.95 - horrible losses on most compared to what they were purchased for months ago. 36% on HOF Dollar PCGS 69, 22% on NGC 63 1884 Morgan Dollar, 50 % loss on civil war PCGS graded XF 45 Indian Cent, 9% gain on 1892 NGC 64 half. a 58% loss on 1918f on graded German Mark piece. 40% loss on 1949-S 10c PCGS 66. On six coins I blew out I got $365 against $445 cost, about 18% loss. Now I have retailed coins for 50-200% more on the Bay but these are few and far between.
I think I will stick to graded bullion coins from here on out coupled with a high cash vs inventory position. No more being a collector at heart for me, tired of all the red ink. It is really hard for the most part to make money with USM stuff bc they almost always go down in aftermarket unless some huge bullion uptick.
As far as those touting the big ticket coins only the wealthy can afford: hey put your money where your mouth is and start one on ebay in a real auction at 9.95 and c how it ends up. the proof is in the pudding......sure I read the success stories in the CDN but there are losers too.
Washington Quarters LOL - worst thing one can invest in IMO.
Sellers are taking a blood bath - unless you buy it right - buy low / sell high taking tables at shows good luck. The problem is there is hardly anyone walking in the door with anything to sell / buy right. Plus the show expenses will eat into or eliminate your profit bc of many big dealers w big inventories doing wholesale (probably to make ends meet). It seems like the people going to shows have less money to spend - Central States Horrible for many dealers.
Now I do believe this may be a good time to get some good deals vs price guides but will you make any money?
Unfortunately, not even remotely close to the "worst". If you only knew about the classics and/or moderns that make those quarters look like OK buys by comparison!
Wondercoin