Would you buy a coin that recently upgraded for a price commensurate with its new higher grade?

CalGold · December 16, 2014 9:53AM

With auction archives online it is easy to research the price and grade history of a coin. So if you discover that a coin that interests you was recently upgraded, how would it affect your decision to buy it?

Would you be willing to pay a price commensurate with its new higher grade? Or would you shy away from it because you would not want a coin that the graders previously determined did not merit its present grade?

Would it make a difference if it was previously in an OGH? Would it matter if it now had a green sticker?

CG

BryceM · December 16, 2014 9:59AM

...... depends on the coin. All of this comes into play, but at the end of the day the go/no-go decision depends on A) the coin,

the price, C) the opinion of the TPG service, D) the opinion of the FPG service, in that order.

If a really superb MS64*++PQQQ coin suddenly upgraded to a so-so 65, the real price difference in price realized is often pretty minimal.

crispy · December 16, 2014 1:11PM

Another way to look at it is would you pay more for a coin that is being touted as "should or will upgrade if resubmitted". I see this claim all the time from people trying to sell a coin. I always wonder why they didn't just resubmit it themselves in the first place if they really believe what they're saying. Maybe it's just a line? Now if the pricing difference is minimal then I can understand why they wouldn't resubmit, but if it is a substantial jump and they believe it will upgrade, then why not just do it and then list it. Anyway, it's sort of the same type of situation that CalGold is asking. Or maybe it isn't.

Unknown · December 16, 2014 1:19PM

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lasvegasteddy · December 16, 2014 1:47PM

of course
history doesn't come into play of current status at a current sale

do i pay less for a graded coin because it was raw or previously graded

end of the day
if price fits the coin and i'm happy with the coin...i'll buy it

i'd tell a buyer to beat sand if he was whinning "but the coin was in a lower graded holder before is why i want to lowball you"

roadrunner · December 16, 2014 1:51PM

Numerous times at auction I've paid 1/2 to 3/4 of the next higher grade (or most of it) for coins I thought could upgrade. In many cases those coins did get the higher and did ok for me. In some cases some of those coins I lost out on at auction only to see the next owner get a 2 pt upgrade and double or triple up their money. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. At Benson 1 in 2002 I identified 5 coins that I felt were good upgrade candidates. I only won a single coin as my other 5 bids weren't strong enough. The other 5 all upgraded after the sale, one by 2 pts (MS66 to 68 half dime). I ended up with the one coin that had no chance to upgrade. It was ironic that my bid on that MS66 half dime was at the MS67+ level ($5400 vs a normal 67 price of $3500 and 66 price of $2000). The coin sold for about 10% more. And it flipped for $13K or so as a MS68. Considering I've been willing to pay next grade up for coins that weren't yet upgraded.....obviously paying that for coins I liked that just upgraded is a no brainer. In fact I tried to buy one of those Benson 1 coins after it upgraded (PF66 1858 25c). But by the time I found out who had it, it had sold. I just ran across that coin after 12 years.....Gene Gardner had bought it just after the Benson sale, and after the upgrade for approx 35-40% more.

One time I completed a sale for 2 rarer date MS66 seated halves with one particular dealer. They were nice coins and have since CAC'd. The dealer found out 2 days after the sale that they had been upgrades and wanted the deal nullified and their check returned. They never asked for that information and the information would have been supplied had they asked. The coins were pedigreed to a major collection/auction where a simple check would have shown they were both ogh MS65's at that time. I took the coins back. Obviously, some people don't want upgraded coins for the higher price. Ironic too, that after the deal for one of those fell through at $30K, it fetched $38K at auction. And next time out 2 years later it fetched $54K in a weak market.

MrEureka · December 16, 2014 2:44PM

All of the answers above make perfect sense for an expert grader. But for someone that relies entirely on the TPG's, it probably makes sense to avoid coins that have upgraded. Sad but true.

Bochiman · December 16, 2014 2:50PM

Been asked before on the boards and my answer wouldn't change....

It depends on how I feel about the coin itself. Do I agree with the higher grade? Do I not?
I have registry sets but a little more than a few years ago, I pulled myself out of "chasing the registry" by grade label itself. Now, I try to go for the coin with the grade I agree with.

Graders are human, grades are subjective, grading standards seem to adjust over time. Understanding that is, to me, key in this. So, I have to decide if I trust my own judgment in grading at all and, if so, then the call is mine. If I don't, then there are price levels/coins that I shouldn't even think about because of potential issues being stuck with the coins at prices I may not later realize.

pennyannie · December 16, 2014 2:51PM

I will pass since I was not smart enough to buy it at the lower grade. The thought of having a maxed out recent regrade would eat at me. I am kind of that way with CAC coins, I want to make them, not buy them.

Justlooking · December 16, 2014 4:59PM

I think a lot of people want to buy something for less than it's worth, and sell for more than it's worth. That said, you can't really argue with paying a fair price for an outstanding coin that is accurately graded.

wondercoin · December 16, 2014 5:15PM

Absolutely. I have done it many times.

Wondercoin.

TopographicOceans · December 16, 2014 6:03PM

I'm a collector and not that astute of a buyer to be able to track down an individual coin.
I could only consider it in it's current grade.
I guess that's what keeps dealers in business.

coinkat · December 16, 2014 7:51PM

Depends on the series, date, overall look and whether it is a quality coin for the grade/upgrade. I suppose the overlooked factors are surviving population and the availability of the coin

PerryHall · December 16, 2014 8:10PM

Like most of the hypothetical questions asked here, it depends. The answer depends on the coin and the price being asked. Show me the coin and quote me a price and I'll be able to answer the question. Bottom line---I won't dismiss a coin strictly because of its grading history.

ricko · December 16, 2014 10:03PM

My decision is based purely on the coin. I trust my grading skills and will pay for a coin commensurate with my assessment. Cheers, RickO

Sonorandesertrat · December 16, 2014 11:10PM

I do not base a purchase decision on whether I think I can flip an item and quickly make a profit. Indeed, there are times when I have paid too much because I was more concerned about quality than price, and it is interesting that those coins have tended to increase in value faster than others in my collection.

I would pony up if I thought the new grade was appropriate, and a green bean might affect how I feel because it adds liquidity. My decision would not be affected if the coin was previously in an OGH.

AMRC · December 17, 2014 12:08AM

I am willing to bet we all have at least one coin in our collections that has upgraded. We just do not know it. So the answer is yes.

TwoSides2aCoin · December 17, 2014 12:21AM

Show me the coin, including the edge.

roadrunner · December 17, 2014 7:10AM

Because of the grading shift from 1998-2006, I'd say half or more of the coins in my collection upgraded along the way? Does that mean I should then sell them because they have a stigma attached? Fwiw, not once did any of
those upgrades bother me. What really bothered me were the important coins that didn't upgrade....where the next owner or two got the upgrade instead of me. It seems that over time, every nice coin will eventually upgrade
at least once, sometimes more often.

wondercoin · December 17, 2014 7:16AM

I still marvel at the coin that upgraded 12 points from start to finish. LOL.

Sure I would have grabbed it after it upgraded the first 3 points.

Wondercoin

Justacommeman · December 17, 2014 7:18AM

I'm learning not to get hung up on grades is the way to go

MJ

DHeath · December 17, 2014 7:30AM

I've never been comfortable believing I could reliably predict TPG grading, the future taste of collectors, the exact date some undiscovered hoard would become a discovered hoard, the spot price of precious metals or the other million things that might make it possible for me to reasonably think of coins as an investment. Therefore, my calculus is pretty simple. If I have an emotional reaction to the coin, the price makes sense based on what I know about recent sales of similar coins and I have the money to piss away, I pull the trigger. Holder shenanigans aren't part of the equation.

BAJJERFAN · December 17, 2014 7:33AM

How is a newbie supposed to learn how to grade by looking at thousands of currently graded coins when those same coins may not be the same grade tomorrow or next week?

Elcontador · December 17, 2014 7:34AM

I would have someone I know and trust who knows more about the coin than I do, evaluate said coin before proceeding further. Ie., if the coin was in an OGH and undergraded by today's standards and is the real deal for the grade, I wouldn't have a problem paying market for it.

But I have not liked many recently upgraded coins which I have seen, and if I think the coin is maxed out in its new holder, I don't want it, regardless of the price, sticker, etc.

CalGold · December 18, 2014 7:15AM

The responses here are about what I expected. Andy’s advice is not doubt sage, as usual, but will go unheeded by those non-expert graders who cannot control their ego.

Here’s may take. It would bug the heck out of me to pay an upgrade price for a coin that the graders previously saw as being unworthy of its present grade, so I would most likely consider that coin an opportunity missed and pass even that though passing on it would bug the heck out of me as well. On the other hand, I, like many of you, have on numerous occasions been out bid, sometimes by a lot, by dealers who, for good reason, had the confidence in their grading abilities pay a crack out price, win the auction, and promptly upgrade the coin and reoffer it at a substantial markup. Had I won those coins and gotten the upgrade myself I would have been delighted to own the coin in its new holder and would have convinced myself that the graders who put in the lower grade holder must have been blind.

CG

BillJones · December 18, 2014 7:54AM

The most expensive coin I ever purchased had that happen. I traced the piece to an MS-61 holder, and at the time I bought it, it had upgraded to an MS-62 holder. At the auction the coin went for just about the same price as it did the first time around. In fact it might have gone for the same price had that auction firm's increments been the same as the firm that sold it when was an MS-61.

I don't regret buying the coin. It is a very hard coin to find nice without problems, and my grade was MS-60. I know that sounds weird, but it basically sold for MS-60 money. The MS-62 grade is probably too high since I paid less than MS-62 Gray Sheet money at the auction.

winky · December 18, 2014 9:38AM

I don't think so if I knew it was upgraded, UNLESS it deserved an upgrade and how would you know if you didn't see it before?

CoinJunkie · December 18, 2014 9:52AM

Some very nice coins were originally undergraded. I see absolutely no reason to exclude those from consideration
for my collection, as long as they haven't become clearly overgraded (i.e., priced too far above their true worth).

Cougar1978 · December 18, 2014 11:08AM

It would hinge on whether I agreed with the grade or not and if the price was right. Probably most of the coins a lot of us have have been upgraded at some point in time or other. As I don't play the crackout game anyhow, that a coin has been upgraded does not bother me.

Just bid blue sheet on it and you may get it bc the other buyers are finicky about it.

IrishMikey · December 18, 2014 11:24PM

<< <i>I still marvel at the coin that upgraded 12 points from start to finish. LOL.

Sure I would have grabbed it after it upgraded the first 3 points.

Wondercoin >>

It went from an AU-58 to a MS-70???

Would you buy a coin that recently upgraded for a price commensurate with its new higher grade?

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