Mercury Dime - Key/Semi-Key Analysis

keyman64 · June 9, 2012 5:57PM

For some folks, it seems very easy to select which coins are the keys and semi-keys for any given series. For myself though, while studying the Mercury Dime Series, I have learned that it is not so straight forward. I will even begin this by saying that this analysis is incomplete since I did not look at the circulated examples nor did I do my desired Market Availability Analysis. My focus was only on the uncirculated. And since I believe my sample sizes to be large enough for a statistical analysis, I only used the PCGS Population Numbers from June 9, 2012 instead of adding in NGC and ANACS numbers etc. I also included the 1945-P in the study for one reason, the Full Band designation rarity that it represents.

Different factors come into play when doing this analysis: Mintage, Survivability, and Strike Quality from the Mint.
Then there are the other factors that are much more difficult to measure such as demand, perceived demand and hoarding that might affect supply.

When I first started to learn the Mercury Dime series years ago, I understood the following to be the Keys/Semi-Keys: 1916-D, 1921, 1921-D, 1926-S, 1931-D.
Are they the keys? How key are they? How do they rank? Are there others? Should others be considered? How much does grade matter? How much do Full Bands matter?

There are several ways to look at this information. I decided on just a few ways. Below is my data. After the data is my personal analysis.

When you look at the data SORTED by MINTAGE you see the following list...the list I learned as a child:
01. 1916-D
02. 1921-D
03. 1921
04. 1931-D
05. 1926-S
06. 1931-S
07. 1930-S
08. 1931
09. 1928-D
10. 1929-S

When you look at the data SORTED by Total Mint State Full Band Examples at PCGS you see a very different list. This list should be studied a little if you wish to build a Full Band Set of Mercs. This list speaks to the quality of the workmanship at the mint, or the lack thereof actually...to a certain degree. You will notice the 1916-D(#19), 1921-D(#15), 1921(#20) and 1931-D(#30) do not even make the cut for the TOP 10 when it comes to scarcity in FB. This surprised me at first...then I thought about the crack-out game where people are resubmitting coins over and over again, hoping to get a coin in a higher graded holder...Ahhh, the motivation of money. Last year(July 12, 2011) when I did this analysis the 1931-S was in the #10 spot and the 1924-S was #11. So this is an example of how things can change from year to year when we have resubmissions happening.
01. 1919-S
02. 1927-S
03. 1945
04. 1926-S
05. 1927-D
06. 1918-S
07. 1918-D
08. 1919-D
09. 1923-S
10. 1924-S

When sorted by non-FB Mint State Examples at PCGS you again find a different list. This is an interesting list for those that are interested in building a Mint State set of Mercury Dimes but they do not want to spend the extra money on the Full Bands designation. It is very interesting because the non-FB examples are cheaper but this list shows there can be some serious competition for finding a few of them that will be just right for your set. Out of the Top 5 Lowest Mintage, only the 1931-D(#16) did not make this list.
01. 1921
02. 1925-D
03. 1916-D
04. 1925-S
05. 1928-D
06. 1924-D
07. 1920-S
08. 1921-D
09. 1926-S
10. 1926-D

When you combine the strength of the previous two lists to include ALL Mint State Examples the list comes into a little better focus I think. You will notice that the 1916-D just barely cracks the top 10 by 13 pieces...but here again I must stress the importance of the crack out game and the wonderful human quality called GREED.
01. 1926-S
02. 1919-S
03. 1927-S
04. 1927-D
05. 1920-S
06. 1921
07. 1925-D
08. 1923-S
09. 1924-S
10. 1916-D

Another question we can ask ourselves is which coins make all of the lists...or most of the lists and what is their average ranking? Let's take a look just for fun...because if you have really read this far then you are clearly a real coin geek/merc fan/glutton for punishment/data analysis junkie.........or maybe you are wondering where I might be going with all of this. I took this exercise on to see where the data might lead and to see if there were any clear answers. On we go....
Average Ranking From Above Lists:
Date Ave. Rank
01. 1926-S 4.75
02. 1921-P 7.50
02. 1927-S 7.50
03. 1916-D 8.25
04. 1927-D 8.50
05. 1921-D 9.50
06. 1925-D 9.75
07. 1919-S 10.25
08. 1923-S 11.25
09. 1928-D 11.75
10. 1925-S 12.00
11. 1924-S 12.75
11. 1920-S 12.75
12. 1931-S 16.25
13. 1924-D 16.50
14. 1919-D 16.75
15. 1918-S 18.75
15. 1926-D 18.75
16. 1930-S 19.00
17. 1931-D 19.25
18. 1929-S 19.50
19. 1931-P 20.00
20. 1918-D 21.25
21. 1945-P 24.00

So, where do we go from here you might ask...if you are still reading this. The next step would be to do a sampling of market availability. There are certainly different ways to do this. One way I would like to consider would be to find out how many times a PCGS Problem Free Mint State example of each of these dates showed up at Heritage Auctions in the past 10 years...then rank them. That would be interesting. There are other places we could go with this as well but you get the idea. We could even add weights to each ranking figure.

Based on what I have here so far, what might I conclude as the TOP 6?...and why?
01. 1926-S
I might just be trying to ruffle some feathers here but a little Heritage Market Availability Analysis sure would go a loooong way with this one. How many PCGS Mint State 26-S examples have you seen hit the auction block in comparison to the 16-D?
02. 1916-D
There have been way too many of these darn things saved which holds it back and there have been way too many of these things cracked out and resubmitted which lands it in this spot.
03. 1927-S
Here again is where I think a little Market Availability Analysis would help but it is my feeling that this coin would rank higher than the 21-P.
04. 1921-P
05. 1927-D
06. 1921-D

If you are building a MS FB set, things should be fairly clear. It should also be clear if you do not care about spending the extra money on Full Bands. If you are building a mixed set then you certainly have a few things to consider.

Well, as you can probably tell, I had some free time and I like Mercury Dimes. I hope someone finds at least some of this interesting or valuable. I hope a few folks that are either new to collecting or maybe just new to Mercury Dimes can learn something here. I know I lived way too long thinking that the top 5 keys/semi-keys were all based on the mintage numbers. Enjoy!

Greg

oreville · June 9, 2012 8:14PM

I do not want to burst your bubble but this analysis would be stronger if you did three more analyses.

One for choice mint state and better MS-63 and better doing the exact same process you have used.
The second for gem mint state and better MS-65 and better ....
the last is for super gem mint state MS-66 (or MS-67) and better

This might make your findings more precise as I imagine most mint state examples are of the 60 61 and 62 grades and may make your findings imprecise.

Probably not a big deal to re-plug the numbers as you have already done the hard part.

mkman123 · June 9, 2012 8:15PM

very nicely researched analysis!

fcloud · June 9, 2012 10:07PM

That took a bunch of work to put together.

MFH · June 9, 2012 10:36PM

Greg,

What a labor of love.

Thanks for posting this as I am at the infantcy stage
in my Mercury Dime collection .

edit for typos

DIMEMAN · June 9, 2012 11:04PM

I always told you how tuff the 27-S was.

And the 16-D can be found at any show...ANY!!!!

Nice work!!!

keyman64 · June 10, 2012 12:09AM

Thanks for the early feedback everyone. Dimeman, I thought you might appreciate the info based on what you have had left recently.

Oreville, no bubbles have been burst. I actually thought of doing just that however I was not a hard core glutton for punishment last night and into the wee hours of the morning. In addition to what I have termed the Market Availability Analysis I do want to break the data down into the following groups: 60-62, 60-62FB, 63-65, 63-65FB, 66-68 and 66-68FB. There is only one problem with doing this that you may not have thought of however. The sample groups for the analysis will get pretty small in some cases which will reduce the statistical validity of the analysis just because of the sample sizes studied. I might do it anyway still since it will provide a better picture for everyone. It will just take more time. In order to increase the sample sizes, I guess I could pull the populations from ANACS.

All in my spare time!

For now, I am headed to the beach for the day.

DeepCoin · June 10, 2012 1:42AM

As a former collector of this series, I think you got off to a great start, but I concur with Oreville on many points. One more factor in addition to the issue regarding resubmissions is that many quality coins reside in NGC holders. In my experience, many if not most are about one point over graded. Yes, there WILL be examples of correct and under grading, but on balance for a large population i think you would find a general agreement regarding this issue. Now the question is, how to factor that and resubmissions into the analysis.

My own experience was in building a high grade 66/67/68 no bands set. Someone wanting a 63/64 set would find a completely different landscape in terms of coins available. For example, a 1918-P in 66 was pop one coin (no bands) 10 years ago. When last I looked it was a pop 3/0 coin. My point to all of this is that an MS designation is just too broad. Another factor is that the "key" coins 1916-D and both 1921s are generally available without too much trouble in most grades. Because they have been accepted as key coins for many years, they surfaced and have been graded more often due to value.

IMHO, the hardest coins to locate are the mint marked teens and twenties coins, 1916-d excepted.

As a trained statistician I appreciate your work, keep going!

keyman64 · June 10, 2012 5:33AM

A few folks have mentioned a greater break down of the Mint State Analysis as I mentioned. The more data the better! I can pull the ANACS data but I need someone (with access) to PM me and pull the NGC Data for me. Depending upon the format, maybe just pull ALL of the Pops for ALL Grades if you can? If it is too difficult then we can just pull the list of 21 coins from the one list above. The more info the better! I would love to re-work all of the info so we can learn from this and have a REAL SNAPSHOT of what the keys and semi-keys are. Let me know if you can help. I really need MORE DATA so I can break the Mint State categories down into 60-62, 63-65, 66-68.

Who wants to help and feed me the data so I can crunch the numbers?

MidLifeCrisis · June 10, 2012 5:53AM

I'm a simple guy. If I were building a collection of key date and semi-key date Mercury Dimes, I would use the list sorted by mintage to define my collection; i.e.,
01. 1916-D
02. 1921-D
03. 1921
04. 1931-D
05. 1926-S
06. 1931-S
07. 1930-S
08. 1931
09. 1928-D
10. 1929-S

All other factors pertaining to full bands, non-full bands, grades awarded by PCGS or some other TPG...these factors cannot be treated with the same validity, so I would not consider them relevant to my collecting decisions.

In other words, I don't think a key date should be defined by a TPG and/or a grade, and certainly not by whether or not it has full bands (particularly while other parts of the coin may be weakly struck).

But that's just my opinion...

DIMEMAN · June 10, 2012 6:19AM

MLC - I understand your thinking to a point. But there is a flaw in your thinking also.

Lowest mintage isn't always lowest survival! Some of the date/mm Mercs with higher mintages than the 16-D are a lot harder to find in certain grades because of survival.

keyman64 · June 10, 2012 6:28AM

<< I'm a simple guy. If I were building a collection of key date and semi-key date Mercury Dimes, I would use the list sorted by mintage to define my collection; i.e.,
01. 1916-D
02. 1921-D
03. 1921
04. 1931-D
05. 1926-S
06. 1931-S
07. 1930-S
08. 1931
09. 1928-D
10. 1929-S

All other factors pertaining to full bands, non-full bands, grades awarded by PCGS or some other TPG...these factors cannot be treated with the same validity, so I would not consider them relevant to my collecting decisions.

In other words, I don't think a key date should be defined by a TPG and/or a grade, and certainly not by whether or not it has full bands (particularly while other parts of the coin may be weakly struck).

But that's just my opinion... >>

MLC- That is how I thought for a very very long time as well. I initially wanted to do just a Mint State Analysis and by looking at TPG Pop Reports, that gives me a Data Sample to work with. I then figured that some folks will avoid FBs all together but others will only do FBs...and some others will do a mixed set. So, I figured since I had started in on the analysis, I might as well look at the data from many different angles to try and help as many people as I can, just in case anyone had an interest. DIMEMAN has been looking for a nice Mint State example of a 27-S for a very long time. His Registry Set is almost complete but the 27-S hole has still not been filled. My data crunching backs that up...and others can also speak to this reality. He is also missing the 25-S.

Because so many people follow your line of thinking, there will always be a strong demand(liquidity) for the top 10 by mintage and if you were to build that set you might only have trouble locating a nice example of ONE or TWO of them since they are all so plentiful and show up at almost any big auction. There is no Absolute One Right Way of collecting them. This data merely points out where folks will have challenges, more often than not, depending upon how they wish to structure their set. That's all.

MidLifeCrisis · June 10, 2012 6:30AM

<< Lowest mintage isn't always lowest survival! Some of the date/mm Mercs with higher mintages than the 16-D are a lot harder to find in certain grades because of survival. >>

True.

However, no one really knows the exact numbers of these coins that have survived either. This is just another subjective factor that I would not let influence my decision.

As keyman64 noted in his OP - For some folks, it seems very easy to select which coins are the keys and semi-keys for any given series.

I am one of those folks.

MidLifeCrisis · June 10, 2012 6:39AM

<< This data merely points out where folks will have challenges, more often than not, depending upon how they wish to structure their set. That's all.

>>

And for that purpose, you've provided an excellent set of data and analysis.

I think it all comes down to deciding what attributes about a particular coin you are willing to pay more for.

Some will pay more for full steps, full bell lines, full bands, full head, etc. Some won't.

Some will pay more for condition rarity. Some won't.

Some will pay more for a top pop. Some won't.

Some will pay more to get that 65. Some will be satisfied with a nice 64.

All of these are valid issues to consider when buying a coin. I'm not saying those who do not collect the way I collect are wrong. (Well, maybe just a little bit!

)

But, in the end, I think it's important to remember that, when determining key dates, anything beyond mintage figures is a matter of opinion.

lasvegasteddy · June 10, 2012 8:43AM

wow...alot of research there

Cocoinut · June 10, 2012 10:28AM

<< I'm a simple guy. If I were building a collection of key date and semi-key date Mercury Dimes, I would use the list sorted by mintage to define my collection; i.e.,
01. 1916-D
02. 1921-D
03. 1921
04. 1931-D
05. 1926-S
06. 1931-S
07. 1930-S
08. 1931
09. 1928-D
10. 1929-S

Really? I have read that many coins from the late 1920's to early '30's were available from banks at face value until the mid-1930's; there simply was no demand for them in the early years of the Great Depression. My own experience has borne that out, particularly with the 1929-S, 1930-S, and 1931-D. I've found the 1931-P and 1931-S to be a bit tougher, but still not too difficult. The 1916-D can be found easily at major shows, or more commonly, auctions. Both 1921's are harder to locate than the '16-D. I believe Greg's list of the Top 21 is as good as anyone can make (excluding FB's and condition rarities). The '26-S and '27-S are seldom seen in MS64/better, FB or not.

Jim

MidLifeCrisis · June 10, 2012 12:09PM

<< The 1916-D can be found easily at major shows, or more commonly, auctions. >>

Let's face it...none of these coins is really rare.

The 16-D, like its 09-S VDB Lincoln counterpart or most any other "key" date, can be found easily at major shows and auctions because more people collect them; more of them get slabbed; and dealers want to stock more of them because they are easier to sell.

Serious Mercury Dime collectors have a hard time finding the 27-S, the 25-S, the 19-S, the 26-S, etc, because these coins have not been as popular historically with the broader collecting community. They have been largely ignored by type and key date collectors; therefore, fewer of them survive in higher grades and fewer have been slabbed.

keyman64 · June 10, 2012 12:40PM

Thanks Jim.

Thanks MLC...you are correct. None of the coins mentioned in this thread are rare but a few of them can be really really tough in certain grades and that is what I guess I am drawing attention to here. As far as many of these not getting slabbed, I would tend to disagree with that part. Here in the Mint State Realm, it is well worth it for these coins to be slabbed. Everyone owns a few price guides. If it is worth it to have a coin slabbed at a TPG then I think a strong majority of them do make it to the TPG...if for no other reason than to protect the coin and value.

As for RARE MERCURY DIMES, they do exist and will be discussed in my eBook. There are some very rare Mercury Dime Varieties out there.

veryfine · June 10, 2012 12:53PM

<< 

<< This data merely points out where folks will have challenges, more often than not, depending upon how they wish to structure their set. That's all.

>>

And for that purpose, you've provided an excellent set of data and analysis.

I think it all comes down to deciding what attributes about a particular coin you are willing to pay more for.

Some will pay more for full steps, full bell lines, full bands, full head, etc. Some won't.

Some will pay more for condition rarity. Some won't.

Some will pay more for a top pop. Some won't.

Some will pay more to get that 65. Some will be satisfied with a nice 64.

All of these are valid issues to consider when buying a coin. I'm not saying those who do not collect the way I collect are wrong. (Well, maybe just a little bit!

)

But, in the end, I think it's important to remember that, when determining key dates, anything beyond mintage figures is a matter of opinion. >>

MLC,

Very well said and I share your thoughts with regard to key dates.

MidLifeCrisis · June 10, 2012 1:11PM

<< There are some very rare Mercury Dime Varieties out there.

>>

Ah, yes indeed! But varieties are a different thing altogether!

camlov2 · June 10, 2012 1:51PM

Great information. I would give the column MS less worth due to the fact that a portion of those coins are now sitting in the MSFB column. Mintage and MSFB I believe to be the most important. Thanks for the work.

lasvegasteddy · June 10, 2012 2:00PM

i know it's another story bringing proofs into the discussion
but aren't the rarest mercury dimes sitting in cameo holders
so if a person was truly after rarity in this series
wouldn't proof cameo's top the list???

if i can this is what i'm after...a cameo example

i know ngc has a few
pcgs is even tougher
just how many pcgs cameo exsist?

keyman64 · June 10, 2012 2:06PM

<< i know it's another story bringing proofs into the discussion
but aren't the rarest mercury dimes sitting in cameo holders
so if a person was truly after rarity in this series
wouldn't proof cameo's top the list??? >>

Trouble Maker!!!

Actually some really tough coins would be the ones that are PL and designated as such by other TPGs. I am not well informed on the proofs but I believe what you state to be true. Cameos are tough...that will be a project for another time though. I am happy to do the work...but I have too many mini-projects going right now to take on another one....maybe next week or the week after.

lasvegasteddy · June 10, 2012 2:08PM

"Trouble Maker!!! "
lol
ahhh come on
doing a spread on cameo designated proofs should only of been a smoke break in time...

keyman64 · June 10, 2012 2:13PM

<< "Trouble Maker!!! "
lol
ahhh come on
doing a spread on cameo designated proofs should only of been a smoke break in time...

>>

I will see what I can do...but it sure as heck won't be tonight! I have to get the data pulled from all the TPGs first.

lasvegasteddy · June 10, 2012 2:24PM

pcgs pop shows proof mercury dimes that made cameo designation or deep cameo (no dcams to report)
1936...0
1937...1
1938...0
1939...9
1940...0
1941...0
1942...1

out of seven year run of proofs...4 still remain dark...2 years hold only 1....one year has 9 (wow)<<<there is hope

keyman64 · June 10, 2012 2:27PM

Will have to see what the other TPGs offer up in the data realm also. Your inquiry about PROOFS got me thinking about the NGC designated PL Mercs. Wow, lots of fun to be had.

lasvegasteddy · June 10, 2012 2:30PM

just don't poke any more pins in my voodoo doll as it was a humble inclusion...and he's a hurtin unit already...

keyman64 · June 11, 2012 1:40AM

I just received a reply from David W. Lange ATS. He is the author of The Complete Guide to Mercury Dimes Second Edition. Here is what he had to share -

One quick comment---The 1931-D dimes are more common in MS than their mintage suggests, and that may be why this date didn't make some lists. Most were issued several years after they were struck, since they weren't needed for commerce in 1931. Speculators hoarded Uncirculated rolls when they did finally appear, due to their low published mintage. Examples were widely advertised UNC in the late 30s and throughout the 40s, when other semi-keys were rarely available in MS.

Even more evidence that collecting key Mercury Dimes by MINTAGE alone is a flawed practice if your goal is to collect the Keys and Semi-Keys. The data shows it and the statement above backs it up. That being said, there are so many people that will collect by mintage alone that it will not matter. The coins will always be in high demand and in turn be very liquid.

copperhunter · June 11, 2012 2:08AM

I do not collect these at all, but when I read your post from Mr. Lange, I wanted to add to that the survival rate vs. mintage argument can best be seen when 1) looking at the circulated versus uncirculated population ratios. Coins with low mintage with disproporationately higher uncirculated examples imply hoarding, and 2) looking to other series for similar grade distributions. As someone who concentrates on Lincolns, I know that the 1931-S is considered a key date from a mintage perspective, but most are uncirculated, since this year was one for hoarding, much in the same way the 1931-D dime was according to Mr. Lange. This is also why the grade/price curve is very flat for the 1931-S Lincoln.

keyman64 · June 11, 2012 2:26AM

Thanks Chris, good stuff.

I would like to do an analysis on the circulated as well but the problem with doing that is for a lot of the coins mentioned in this thread the values are not high enough to support a person's desire to have them graded. It would be a healthy exercise to look at the data anyway rather than making assumptions...and then compare the coins at different grades to the price guides to explain some of the details. All in due time I guess. Thanks!

baseballjeff · January 23, 2022 12:38AM

I am a Mercury Dime collector and I stumbled across this post tonight for the first time. This has been an amazing read! I am curious, where are we at now with all these figures 10 years later?

Great work! Thank you!!!

relicsncoins · January 23, 2022 1:44AM

Great Info

ricko · January 23, 2022 4:54AM

This is a thread that Mercury dime collectors should have bookmarked... A deep dive indeed into statistics, and shows opportunities for even further analysis. Cheers, RickO

PTVETTER · January 23, 2022 7:38AM

I am sure that some of the information is still spot on.
As an example I believe that the hardest Mercury dime to find is the 1926-S with full bands!

jesbroken · January 23, 2022 8:12AM

I saved this when I first read it and had already completed my Mercury Dime collection. Unfortunately, I didn't understand much of this, as it was unknown to me, so I went after the typical stars. A wildman named kryptonitecomics sold my collection after having it graded and I truly was lucky in I received payment just as his world collapsed. Wish I had read this first and would love to see the followup analysis spoke of.
Jim

mavs2583 · January 23, 2022 9:49AM

The 1916d has increased in price significantly in the past year. They used to be available all day at around $500 in ag3 , now they’re consistently $700+. I want to upgrade mine but don’t want to possibly overpay at current prices if they do come down.

Swampboy · January 24, 2022 12:41AM

Saw I had 6 notifications just now.
Bookmarked this guy back in the day.
Great thread.
I see Teddy stopped by recently.

Mercury Dime - Key/Semi-Key Analysis

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