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What is the verdict on the Palladium 1oz

BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited January 21, 2018 5:38PM in U.S. Coin Forum

Great design, what do you think the outlook will be on them?

Comments

  • keetskeets Posts: 25,351 ✭✭✭✭✭

    from our little corner of the world I can say no one is asking about them.

  • U1chicagoU1chicago Posts: 5,554 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 21, 2018 5:46PM

    It depends on the mintage of the next releases (proof and any further bullion offerings).

    In my opinion, if the mintages are too high in the future, that will hinder the series (similar to how the bullion 5 oz ATB quarters went from 33,000 for the 2010 to 126,700 for the first two 2011 pucks).

    In general, I believe the bullion could sustain around 15,000 per year. The Proofs would do well at 10,000-15,000; even a higher number could be ok in year 1, but they would struggle in future years if the design doesn't change and the mintage stays high (especially considering the high premium on the proof versions).

  • 291fifth291fifth Posts: 23,898 ✭✭✭✭✭

    An off-the-radar issue. Great design but just another of way too many NCLT bullion issues.

    All glory is fleeting.
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,796 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Beautiful piece. Just enough to fill, and support collector demand were made (IMO) . I’m gonna get me one, some day.

  • bestdaybestday Posts: 4,220 ✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:
    Great design, what do you think the outlook will be on them?

    Palladium will follow Gold sharply higher IN 2018...The 2017 coin will stay steady to higher.. low mintage makes it interesting ..... 15,000 were made for 2017 .. 12,000 were graded by PCGS /NGC
    I think coin is quiet now ,those who bought are holding ....coin club had 75 PCGS 70s ..sold half at a good profit
    Very pretty coin in hand ... yes that design is great

  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I like the design, particularly the reverse. I am not a palladium stacker though - just gold and silver. Cheers, RickO

  • ashelandasheland Posts: 22,612 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I like them. Very nice looking from what I've seen.

  • RogerBRogerB Posts: 8,852 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Weinman's designs are excellent - even if they were never intended to be on the same medal.

  • jwittenjwitten Posts: 5,072 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have one and love it. I've been eyeballing yours as well, but am not sure I want to put that much of a gamble on them.

  • nurmalernurmaler Posts: 1,158 ✭✭✭

    Proof date published - Sep 6th

  • CryptoCrypto Posts: 3,368 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I didn’t go for them because a decade or so ago I did the Palladium maples back when they were much cheaper. when I went to get out of them many bouillon dealers were only interested in gold and silver. I would say the bullion market for Palladium isn’t as mature, so why bother.

    As a coin... are they really coins or fancy Medals?

  • LindeDadLindeDad Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Well since I never got any they will probably shyrocket.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭✭

    depends.

    they'll look at the sales and up mintages to the point where supply >> demand.

    also, first year sales are usually spectacular. it is afterwards that counts. I foresee a quickly trailing off demand. approach further issues with caution. take in the low mintage issues only.

    for example, look at the Canadian maple palladium and the Russian ballerina palladium. they stopped making them. these will be at best on par with platinum issues, but probably not -- likely less popular -- as the Canada mint still sells platinum maples.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • SmudgeSmudge Posts: 9,208 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Bullion coin. Pretty, but I'll stay with gold and silver.

  • KudbegudKudbegud Posts: 4,735 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The design is what grabs me. Being Palladium is plus. I will be getting this years for sure. Price appreciation is good but not my only goal.


  • CameonutCameonut Posts: 7,250 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm only interested in them for bullion value, but I agree it's a great design.

    When the Russians need to raise cash, dump a bunch of palladium on the market, and depress prices, I'll be looking for a bargain on this one. Hey everyone, keep in mind that the gold, platinum, and palladium markets are heavily influenced by countries that don't like us very much.

    In the meantime, too much of a premium for me, I'll wait for more reasonable prices or buy another countries' issue if US premiums stay too high.

    “In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson

    My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 31,618 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Cameonut said:
    I'm only interested in them for bullion value, but I agree it's a great design.

    When the Russians need to raise cash, dump a bunch of palladium on the market, and depress prices, I'll be looking for a bargain on this one. Hey everyone, keep in mind that the gold, platinum, and palladium markets are heavily influenced by countries that don't like us very much.

    In the meantime, too much of a premium for me, I'll wait for more reasonable prices or buy another countries' issue if US premiums stay too high.

    Also, don't forget that electric cars don't have catalytic converters. Demand for platinum and palladium is going to take a significant drop in the next 10 years or so.

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Cameonut said:
    I'm only interested in them for bullion value, but I agree it's a great design.

    When the Russians need to raise cash, dump a bunch of palladium on the market, and depress prices, I'll be looking for a bargain on this one. Hey everyone, keep in mind that the gold, platinum, and palladium markets are heavily influenced by countries that don't like us very much.

    In the meantime, too much of a premium for me, I'll wait for more reasonable prices or buy another countries' issue if US premiums stay too high.

    Also, don't forget that electric cars don't have catalytic converters. Demand for platinum and palladium is going to take a significant drop in the next 10 years or so.

    But fuel cells need a PBM as a catalyst

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,796 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 6, 2018 6:49PM

    I like the heavy metal, except in my ears.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 31,618 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Cameonut said:
    I'm only interested in them for bullion value, but I agree it's a great design.

    When the Russians need to raise cash, dump a bunch of palladium on the market, and depress prices, I'll be looking for a bargain on this one. Hey everyone, keep in mind that the gold, platinum, and palladium markets are heavily influenced by countries that don't like us very much.

    In the meantime, too much of a premium for me, I'll wait for more reasonable prices or buy another countries' issue if US premiums stay too high.

    Also, don't forget that electric cars don't have catalytic converters. Demand for platinum and palladium is going to take a significant drop in the next 10 years or so.

    But fuel cells need a PBM as a catalyst

    Except traditional electric is way out in front of fuel cells in the market.

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,964 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Cameonut said:
    I'm only interested in them for bullion value, but I agree it's a great design.

    When the Russians need to raise cash, dump a bunch of palladium on the market, and depress prices, I'll be looking for a bargain on this one. Hey everyone, keep in mind that the gold, platinum, and palladium markets are heavily influenced by countries that don't like us very much.

    In the meantime, too much of a premium for me, I'll wait for more reasonable prices or buy another countries' issue if US premiums stay too high.

    Also, don't forget that electric cars don't have catalytic converters. Demand for platinum and palladium is going to take a significant drop in the next 10 years or so.

    But fuel cells need a PBM as a catalyst

    There won't be any fuel cell cars :D

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭

    We recently installed a large fuel cell to power the entirety of our west coast manufacturing plant

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bronco2078 said:

    @Boosibri said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Cameonut said:
    I'm only interested in them for bullion value, but I agree it's a great design.

    When the Russians need to raise cash, dump a bunch of palladium on the market, and depress prices, I'll be looking for a bargain on this one. Hey everyone, keep in mind that the gold, platinum, and palladium markets are heavily influenced by countries that don't like us very much.

    In the meantime, too much of a premium for me, I'll wait for more reasonable prices or buy another countries' issue if US premiums stay too high.

    Also, don't forget that electric cars don't have catalytic converters. Demand for platinum and palladium is going to take a significant drop in the next 10 years or so.

    But fuel cells need a PBM as a catalyst

    There won't be any fuel cell cars :D

    Probably more like transport fleets
    https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/27/toyota-explores-the-potential-of-a-hydrogen-fuel-cell-powered-class-8-truck/

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,964 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Where do you get the hydrogen? Nobody is going to drive around with a pressure tank of hydrogen in a car. It costs more energy to produce it than you could ever save if you intend to make it from water you need electricity and lots of it. There would have to be YUGGGGEEE subsidies. For the next 6 years I don't think there will be any of those.

  • BoosibriBoosibri Posts: 11,841 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bronco2078 said:
    Where do you get the hydrogen? Nobody is going to drive around with a pressure tank of hydrogen in a car. It costs more energy to produce it than you could ever save if you intend to make it from water you need electricity and lots of it. There would have to be YUGGGGEEE subsidies. For the next 6 years I don't think there will be any of those.

    In my fuel cells I’ve worked with the fuel is natural gas which is readily available.

    I’m not a metals bug, just say8ng that fuel cells if they ever become commercialized will need the catalytic agents like palladium. Who knows.

  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 9,964 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    @bronco2078 said:
    Where do you get the hydrogen? Nobody is going to drive around with a pressure tank of hydrogen in a car. It costs more energy to produce it than you could ever save if you intend to make it from water you need electricity and lots of it. There would have to be YUGGGGEEE subsidies. For the next 6 years I don't think there will be any of those.

    In my fuel cells I’ve worked with the fuel is natural gas which is readily available.

    I’m not a metals bug, just say8ng that fuel cells if they ever become commercialized will need the catalytic agents like palladium. Who knows.

    I mean you can run cars on propane gas , its been a thing down under for a long time. I think back to the 70's and 80's they were putting dual fuel mixers on cars and light trucks. They had a propane cylinder and a gas tank and you could switch between them. We don't seem to do that in the us, instead we do stupid things like ethanol in the gas . If you could power a fuel cell with propane then fine but an internal combustion engine would burn it as is and not pollute as much as gasoline.

    In my business I scrap a lot of vehicles and I am sitting on a large pile of used catalytic converters. I used to scrap them for decent money but prices they offer now indicate they don't really want them. Its strange with spot Palladium as high as it is you'd think recovering nearly pure metal would be cheaper than digging it up.

  • CameonutCameonut Posts: 7,250 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Boosibri said:

    @jmlanzaf said:

    @Cameonut said:
    I'm only interested in them for bullion value, but I agree it's a great design.

    When the Russians need to raise cash, dump a bunch of palladium on the market, and depress prices, I'll be looking for a bargain on this one. Hey everyone, keep in mind that the gold, platinum, and palladium markets are heavily influenced by countries that don't like us very much.

    In the meantime, too much of a premium for me, I'll wait for more reasonable prices or buy another countries' issue if US premiums stay too high.

    Also, don't forget that electric cars don't have catalytic converters. Demand for platinum and palladium is going to take a significant drop in the next 10 years or so.

    But fuel cells need a PBM as a catalyst

    Even though the thread has migrated away from the coin in question, I think the discussion of the future of Pd is interesting. I stopped watching all PGM's over a decade ago - I concluded that the more I learned, the more I didn't know. (at least for personal investment purposes).

    Electric cars will have a negative impact on the use of PGMs which will happen slowly over the coming years. Battery technology still has a long way to go to become more mainstream.

    Many years ago, I supported a small group of engineers at GM that were working on fuel cells for cars/trucks. Lots of technical details to work out and it is no surprise that stationary fuel cells are now in more widespread use. But you still needed Pd for the proton exchange membrane to make it all work. I never did any comparison on the amount of Pd needed for fuel cells vs catalytic converters, perhaps Johnson Matthey has.

    And who knows what the electronics industry will use in the future with the explosion of handheld devices.

    And don't count out those pesky Russians. Twenty years ago, they mined about 50% of the world's supply at Norilsk. They could control prices to some extent by limiting supply and secretly stashing the rest. So when Putin and his predecessors needed a dose of cash, they went to the Pd piggy bank. These days I think they are a bit smarter on how to do this to maximize proceeds.

    “In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson

    My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!

  • CameonutCameonut Posts: 7,250 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @bronco2078 said:

    @Boosibri said:

    @bronco2078 said:
    Where do you get the hydrogen? Nobody is going to drive around with a pressure tank of hydrogen in a car. It costs more energy to produce it than you could ever save if you intend to make it from water you need electricity and lots of it. There would have to be YUGGGGEEE subsidies. For the next 6 years I don't think there will be any of those.

    In my fuel cells I’ve worked with the fuel is natural gas which is readily available.

    I’m not a metals bug, just say8ng that fuel cells if they ever become commercialized will need the catalytic agents like palladium. Who knows.

    I mean you can run cars on propane gas , its been a thing down under for a long time. I think back to the 70's and 80's they were putting dual fuel mixers on cars and light trucks. They had a propane cylinder and a gas tank and you could switch between them. We don't seem to do that in the us, instead we do stupid things like ethanol in the gas . If you could power a fuel cell with propane then fine but an internal combustion engine would burn it as is and not pollute as much as gasoline.

    In my business I scrap a lot of vehicles and I am sitting on a large pile of used catalytic converters. I used to scrap them for decent money but prices they offer now indicate they don't really want them. Its strange with spot Palladium as high as it is you'd think recovering nearly pure metal would be cheaper than digging it up.

    Hydrogen storage is a big issue. I nicknamed it a "mobile Chernobyl" but I don't think it stuck.

    I was stunned to ride in a right-hand-drive Cadillac taxicab in Melbourne Australia in the mid '90's. I was a GM engineer at the time working to set up the first catalyst coating plant in that country. As far as I knew, Cadillac made no right hand drive Caddy's so it had to be an all custom job. Very resourceful. In addition, it was converted to run on both gasoline or propane. The driver simply flipped a switch to change fuel sources. He said he bought whatever was cheapest. There were no emissions standards there at the time, so who knows if it would pass. Surely, emissions would be less using propane but a little help from a catalyst should meet emissions.

    I was also one of the engineers that helped set up GM's "above the ground mine" in the old days. By the mid 90's it was recognized that cars with converters had been on the road for almost 20 years and many were being scrapped. We set up a system for collection, processing, and how to settle in $$ or in metal. We were also interested in the mix of converters coming back. The original bead converters were particularly rich in PGMs and highly valued, honey comb substrates less so. But there were particular car models/engines that were also particularly rich (dirty engines). Since we knew what we put into the converters when they were built, it was interesting to learn about what was returned thru recycling. I've been away from this for over 20 years now, but I am pretty certain that there is money to be made recycling. A key point is that the entire cost of car production is pretty well understood. Engineers look at the details of how they can reduce system costs and over time they can make changes to engine design, fueling, controls, etc with the intent of minimizing the amount of emissions reduction to be performed by the exhaust aftertreatment system. I would love to see data on PGM loadings over the last 30 years - it would be quite interesting as there are many variables involved. Unfortunately, the car makers don't like to share this type of data - even internally.

    Back to the Pd coin - I'll wait for lower prices - they will come sooner or later. Keep in mind that the market for Pd is controlled my a small number of producers. Major users - like car companies - have long term contracts in place at set prices - usually much lower than market. Market price is what the small guys - like us - pay. Often more volatile because the available supply can fluctuate - hence market price swings. So if you are a car company and need Pd to make catalyst - where do you get it? You get it from your contracts with the mine at the contract price OR you get it from your above ground mine if the price is at/near the contract price. The point is that recyclers compete with the contract prices with the mines, not the market price.

    Sorry for getting us into the weeds, but I thought the insight might be helpful.

    “In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock." - Thomas Jefferson

    My digital cameo album 1950-64 Cameos - take a look!

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