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The biggest reason for the bifurcation of the rare coin market...

MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited October 20, 2017 10:09AM in U.S. Coin Forum

The bifurcation of the rare coin market is a subject that has been beaten to death. Pretty much all of us understand that the market has been continually and increasingly differentiating between coins that are nice for the grade and coins that are not.

But the bigger issue is how the internet has made almost everything much easier to purchase, and at the lowest possible price. This means that, for most coins, it is less urgent for a collector to buy the coin, much less to pay "retail". And this means that most dealers have less incentive to stock most coins. The combination of forces has been driving prices lower for these coins. Which means for most coins.

On the other hand, coins that are so rare, as either as absolute rarities or as condition rarities, used to be specifically pursued by relatively few hardcore, expert collectors, are now accessible to a much larger audience. The resultant competition has been driving prices for these coins higher.

In other words, the market has also been bifurcating based on rarity.

I don't see the trend changing anytime soon, but I do see many opportunities. If you look beyond the Red Book, and especially if you look beyond the USA, there are many types of coins that can be collected at the highest level that are not especially popular or expensive. (Examples: Jefferson Nickel errors, Bolivian gold, French Art Medals, etc.) For those who take their collecting seriously, now is the time to take the road less travelled, and to settle for nothing but the best.

Andy Lustig

Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    Insider2Insider2 Posts: 14,452 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 20, 2017 10:11AM

    I agree. There are flawless, cheap foreign coins that go begging. Those with a little more money can find beautiful early 20th Century stuff too. None of it slabbed!

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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Insider2 said:
    I agree. There are flawless, cheap foreign coins that go begging. Those with a little more money can find beautiful early 20th Century stuff too. None of it slabbed!

    True. And think about how hard it used to be to find truly rare coins worth less than $50. How many would you actually find? And how many hours and miles would you have to travel? Now, all you need is a vision, an internet connection and persistence.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,422 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Gradeflation also has a lot to do with the bifurcation of the market.

    While the internet has made more coins available to potential buyers, unless you have a no questions asked return privilege, if you buy a coin from the internet, I don't care how good the image, you are buying a coin sight unseen.

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
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    DentuckDentuck Posts: 3,812 ✭✭✭

    Has the "Buy the best quality you can afford" chicken come home to roost? Does that attitude/advice weaken the demand for coins that would have been called "collector quality" 50 years ago (Fine, Very Fine, Extremely Fine, About Unc common dates in the classic series)?

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    cladkingcladking Posts: 28,350 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's interesting that Chinese aluminum is now pursued in high grade. These coins from the '50's and '60's have been scarce in nice condition almost since they were each produced but no one noticed. A few short years ago they just listed for pennies apiece but now the scarcity is recognized and chGem examples bring prices of hundreds of dollars.

    The same is likely happening to Indian base metal coins of the '50's to '90's and Russian (Soviet) coins made since 1961.

    Tempus fugit.
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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Dentuck said:
    Has the "Buy the best quality you can afford" chicken come home to roost? Does that attitude/advice weaken the demand for coins that would have been called "collector quality" 50 years ago (Fine, Very Fine, Extremely Fine, About Unc common dates in the classic series)?

    That's a completely different issue. Funny thing is, I don't think that the demand for circulated coins has suffered from gem-mania. But the prices being paid for gems certainly has driven many collectors away from series that they might otherwise have collected. Not a problem, as far as I'm concerned.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    TomBTomB Posts: 20,737 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think your point about the internet is quite valid, but we can add another tidbit about the internet and that is that it is far easier today to find and compare multiple coins of the same issue and grade than in the past. Therefore, nicer coins within the grade tend to leave the open market faster while lower end coins end up hanging forever and can drive prices lower.

    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image
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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cladking said:
    It's interesting that Chinese aluminum is now pursued in high grade. These coins from the '50's and '60's have been scarce in nice condition almost since they were each produced but no one noticed. A few short years ago they just listed for pennies apiece but now the scarcity is recognized and chGem examples bring prices of hundreds of dollars.

    The same is likely happening to Indian base metal coins of the '50's to '90's and Russian (Soviet) coins made since 1961.

    That's a perfect example of what I think can happen in many areas, ranging from subway tokens to medieval copper to Spanish colonial gold. (I mention the later because it's becoming one of my favorite areas. Think of it something like the rare date US gold market before Akers wrote his books. It's wide open for research and bargain hunting.)

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    DentuckDentuck Posts: 3,812 ✭✭✭

    @291fifth said:
    The internet has helped reveal just how common most collector coins actually are. The same is true for virtually all other collectible areas as well. There is no reason to be generous when buying common collectibles of any kind.

    That's a good point.

    Bowers offers this estimate on the 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cent: "Probably 100,000 or more exist in grades from AG through VF, many of these having been plucked out of circulation after 'penny boards' and albums became popular in the 1930s" (MEGA RED, 2nd edition). The 1909-S V.D.B. has a popular perception of being "rare" (which it's not, although it's a key date in the series). A significant question: Are there 100,000 active Lincoln cent collectors in the world?

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    ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,422 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:

    @Dentuck said:
    Has the "Buy the best quality you can afford" chicken come home to roost? Does that attitude/advice weaken the demand for coins that would have been called "collector quality" 50 years ago (Fine, Very Fine, Extremely Fine, About Unc common dates in the classic series)?

    That's a completely different issue. Funny thing is, I don't think that the demand for circulated coins has suffered from gem-mania. But the prices being paid for gems certainly has driven many collectors away from series that they might otherwise have collected. Not a problem, as far as I'm concerned.

    Actually, I have picked up a nice type coin that was not deemed to be "registry set worthy" several years ago at a reasonable price. It's a better date CBH in a PC 4 holder and solid for the grade. The powers that be seem to believe that a CBH that isn't in a PC 5 holder or better is not "registry set worthy."

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 20, 2017 11:21PM

    .Here's another thought. > @Dentuck said:

    @291fifth said:
    The internet has helped reveal just how common most collector coins actually are. The same is true for virtually all other collectible areas as well. There is no reason to be generous when buying common collectibles of any kind.

    That's a good point.

    Bowers offers this estimate on the 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cent: "Probably 100,000 or more exist in grades from AG through VF, many of these having been plucked out of circulation after 'penny boards' and albums became popular in the 1930s" (MEGA RED, 2nd edition). The 1909-S V.D.B. has a popular perception of being "rare" (which it's not, although it's a key date in the series). A significant question: Are there 100,000 active Lincoln cent collectors in the world?

    There probably are, although most would not pay the price for an S-VDB. Then again, perhaps only a few thousand pieces are actually on the market at any given time, and they don’t all need to get sold today. The point being that 1000 active retail buyers can support the market for a coin with a pop of 100,000.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,910 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @EagleEye had a great post recently about coins that are in favor, including ones that are photogenic which helps when being shared on the net.

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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2017 4:11AM

    @Elcontador said:

    @MrEureka said:

    @Dentuck said:
    Has the "Buy the best quality you can afford" chicken come home to roost? Does that attitude/advice weaken the demand for coins that would have been called "collector quality" 50 years ago (Fine, Very Fine, Extremely Fine, About Unc common dates in the classic series)?

    That's a completely different issue. Funny thing is, I don't think that the demand for circulated coins has suffered from gem-mania. But the prices being paid for gems certainly has driven many collectors away from series that they might otherwise have collected. Not a problem, as far as I'm concerned.

    Actually, I have picked up a nice type coin that was not deemed to be "registry set worthy" several years ago at a reasonable price. It's a better date CBH in a PC 4 holder and solid for the grade. The powers that be seem to believe that a CBH that isn't in a PC 5 holder or better is not "registry set worthy."

    I'm sure it's a nice coin, but how available is it at the assigned grade? My point was that formerly scarce and rare coins, have been "under pressure" because they are now much more readily available. In effect, the increased efficiency of the market has made many coins less valuable than they otherwise would have been. (And again, the same increased efficiency is now making many cheaper and more obscure things more available, more collectable, and more valuable than they otherwise would have been. Crazy, right?)

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Very interesting thread... and I certainly have personally found a growing interest in older European coins as well as Mexican silver....and they fit well with my interest in history, often blending with some U.S. coin history. Cheers, RickO

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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Dentuck said:

    @291fifth said:
    The internet has helped reveal just how common most collector coins actually are. The same is true for virtually all other collectible areas as well. There is no reason to be generous when buying common collectibles of any kind.

    That's a good point.

    Bowers offers this estimate on the 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cent: "Probably 100,000 or more exist in grades from AG through VF, many of these having been plucked out of circulation after 'penny boards' and albums became popular in the 1930s" (MEGA RED, 2nd edition). The 1909-S V.D.B. has a popular perception of being "rare" (which it's not, although it's a key date in the series). A significant question: Are there 100,000 active Lincoln cent collectors in the world?

    Let's come back to the S-VDB to illustrate my initial point. This time, by looking back to the really early days, when penny boards were all the rage. Back then, the market was far more inefficient than almost any of us can remember. To obtain an S-VDB, most collectors had to resort to searching their pocket change. So back then, the availability of S-VDB's was really limited, and - in the context of the times - they were rightly considered by many to be true rarities. On the other hand, if you were a collector in Florida looking to put together a collection of gem 20th century Chilean coins, availability was probably so limited that you might give up before you even started, even though the coins had truly minimal value. Think about it. Who would actually be crazy enough to bring those coins to the USA? Marketing them profitably would have been impossible.

    Today, you can buy a roll of S-VDB's in a long night on the internet. And today, the same Chilean coins are just barely available enough that they would make a great challenge for an ambitious collector of modest means.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @topstuf said:
    Just try not to get bifurcked. :p

    Now I'm going to have Surf City running through my head for the rest of the day, and I don't even like The Beach Boys!

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    shorecollshorecoll Posts: 5,445 ✭✭✭✭✭

    What about the impact of hoarding keys and semi-keys? When people finally bail on those (or their heirs dump them), that can have an effect. I remember seeing rolls of coins like 1893-S Morgans in the 80's, although in grades from AG-VF, now they are all "rare". I live in the middle of nowhere and a local dealer told me he had sold 500 1927-S quarters to one hoarder, again, mostly in lower grades.

    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC
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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @shorecoll said:
    What about the impact of hoarding keys and semi-keys? When people finally bail on those (or their heirs dump them), that can have an effect. I remember seeing rolls of coins like 1893-S Morgans in the 80's, although in grades from AG-VF, now they are all "rare". I live in the middle of nowhere and a local dealer told me he had sold 500 1927-S quarters to one hoarder, again, mostly in lower grades.

    That's already the general trend, and it will probably continue.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I guess I'm one of those that was stuck in the middle in that I would get decent coins in the 4 and 5 figure range, but none of the topend US stuff, and switched to GB coins and some colonial. Now I have sole custody of a son in private school and priorities have changed. I still like the challenge of the hunt but have had to get more realistic. So I have shown some recent purchases on these boards. Here is an example of a coin so much more rare than a 1909 Svdb, 1927S quarter or 1893S morgan, that it is ridiculous . Maybe a little boring in the looks department, but how about a mintage of 2,000 for a low value coin that was dumped into circulation (i.e. not held back in bank hoards, etc.) in a horrifically hot and humid environment and never seen another!


    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
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    7Jaguars7Jaguars Posts: 7,268 ✭✭✭✭✭

    PS - Cost? $6.50

    Love that Milled British (1830-1960)
    Well, just Love coins, period.
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    HydrantHydrant Posts: 7,773 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:

    @topstuf said

    Now I'm going to have Surf City running through my head for the rest of the day, and I don't even like The Beach Boys!

    Surf City is a Jan & Dean song. GOTCHA!!!!!!

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    BillDugan1959BillDugan1959 Posts: 3,821 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2017 9:07AM

    People don't have any damn money, that's the biggest reason for EVERYTHING. Very low levels of disposable income.

    And when people get really starved for extra cash long enough, it permanently changes their spending behaviors. That's bad news in a modern consumer-driven economy.

    If there was a lot of money sloshing around AND people felt living was easy, well a lot of coins would find homes.

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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Hydrant said:

    @MrEureka said:

    @topstuf said

    Now I'm going to have Surf City running through my head for the rest of the day, and I don't even like The Beach Boys!

    Surf City is a Jan & Dean song. GOTCHA!!!!!!

    But Brian Wilson did write it, so I should get to wiggle out of that one on a technicality! B)B)B)

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    ZoinsZoins Posts: 33,910 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2017 10:49AM

    The effect of Registries is worth considering as many of those are coins that are and have been bid up to high prices because they offer many registry points. Coins that offer less registry points aren't as useful for collectors chasing registry rank.

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    BaleyBaley Posts: 22,658 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2017 9:53AM

    @Zoins said:
    @EagleEye had a great post recently about coins that are in favor, including ones that are photogenic which helps when being shared on the net.

    I agree with this, it makes sense both for online sales and the registry, as well as online sharing of pictures like this forum.

    No one wants ugly coins which are easily found pretty, and most folks will elect to do without, rather than accept an ugly coin- even if very rare.

    The real prizes are extraordinarily attractive examples of coins that are tough in any grade. These will always be in demand.

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BillDugan1959 said:
    People don't have any damn money, that's the biggest reason for EVERYTHING. Very low levels of disposable income.

    And when people get really starved for extra cash long enough, it permanently changes their spending behaviors. That's bad news in a modern consumer-driven economy.

    If there was a lot of money sloshing around AND people felt living was easy, well a lot of coins would find homes.

    True, but the same shifts in collecting preferences, i.e., the "bifurcation", would still take place if prosperity were more broad-based.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    jcpingjcping Posts: 2,649 ✭✭✭

    On the other hand, coins that are so rare, as either as absolute rarities or as condition rarities, used to be specifically pursued by relatively few hardcore, expert collectors, are now accessible to a much larger audience. The resultant competition has been driving prices for these coins higher.

    I understand the relationship between condition rarities and set registry. Many times, registry point(s) could drive price higher and many times, grade inflation could kill this market sector.

    I had a hard time to understand absolute rarities and their price movement. Because the availability for absolute rarities could be very limited (one might show up every 5-8 years), big time dealers won't promote them. When one showes up in market, many absolute rarities cannot move fast. Could this be a side effect of Internet? New collectors won't touch absolute rarities? Pioneer Golds are the best examples.

    an SLQ and Ike dollars lover
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    HydrantHydrant Posts: 7,773 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:

    But Brian Wilson did write it, so I should get to wiggle out of that one on a technicality!

    O.k., you win. I finally thought I had something valuable to contribute around here and it turns into a massive screw-up. Can't you guys just be experts on coins and leave SOMETHING, ANYTHING for me to feel good about ME?!?!

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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Hydrant said:

    @MrEureka said:

    But Brian Wilson did write it, so I should get to wiggle out of that one on a technicality!

    O.k., you win. I finally thought I had something valuable to contribute around here and it turns into a massive screw-up. Can't you guys just be experts on coins and leave SOMETHING, ANYTHING for me to feel good about ME?!?!

    What? You can't feel good about being right unless you can also prove that someone else is completely wrong? Not too competitive, are we? (:>)

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    MrEurekaMrEureka Posts: 23,947 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jcping said:

    I had a hard time to understand absolute rarities and their price movement. Because the availability for absolute rarities could be very limited (one might show up every 5-8 years), big time dealers won't promote them. When one showes up in market, many absolute rarities cannot move fast. Could this be a side effect of Internet? New collectors won't touch absolute rarities? Pioneer Golds are the best examples.

    Expensive rarities will always get the attention of collectors and dealers. What's new is that inexpensive and obscure rarities are getting more attention. Essentially, it's the "long tail" of numismatics.

    Andy Lustig

    Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.

    Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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    cladkingcladking Posts: 28,350 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:

    @Dentuck said:

    @291fifth said:
    The internet has helped reveal just how common most collector coins actually are. The same is true for virtually all other collectible areas as well. There is no reason to be generous when buying common collectibles of any kind.

    That's a good point.

    Bowers offers this estimate on the 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cent: "Probably 100,000 or more exist in grades from AG through VF, many of these having been plucked out of circulation after 'penny boards' and albums became popular in the 1930s" (MEGA RED, 2nd edition). The 1909-S V.D.B. has a popular perception of being "rare" (which it's not, although it's a key date in the series). A significant question: Are there 100,000 active Lincoln cent collectors in the world?

    Let's come back to the S-VDB to illustrate my initial point. This time, by looking back to the really early days, when penny boards were all the rage. Back then, the market was far more inefficient than almost any of us can remember. To obtain an S-VDB, most collectors had to resort to searching their pocket change. So back then, the availability of S-VDB's was really limited, and - in the context of the times - they were rightly considered by many to be true rarities. On the other hand, if you were a collector in Florida looking to put together a collection of gem 20th century Chilean coins, availability was probably so limited that you might give up before you even started, even though the coins had truly minimal value. Think about it. Who would actually be crazy enough to bring those coins to the USA? Marketing them profitably would have been impossible.

    Today, you can buy a roll of S-VDB's in a long night on the internet. And today, the same Chilean coins are just barely available enough that they would make a great challenge for an ambitious collector of modest means.

    Coin demand is splintering into as many different avenues as languages split after the Tower of Babel. The net is making the existence of just about everything known to anyone with the curiosity to look. Few people will want the Chilean coins but if "everyone" is aware of them it stands to reason some small percentage will desire to own them.

    There are a great number of coins, tokens, and medals that simply aren't available but list for pennies or a few dollars. Even the Chilean silver lists for very low prices but my experience suggests that Gems and some dates could be almost unavailable. Who knows? I tend to concentrate on identifying modern coins that are unavailable but that's chiefly because I could never afford paying 5, 10, or even 20 dollars for rare coins. I like my rare coins for 6.5c or 65c but can stretch to $6.50 sometimes. ;)

    I have great confidence that the hobby is going to grow and expand going forward. I think it can even absorb 150,000 '09-S VDB's without too much trouble. It's unlikely attrition was much higher than about 2% between '09 and 1940 when the last of this date had been removed from circulation. And it's unlikely that attrition has been higher than 1% since then. I rarely see this date offered in less than G. The attrition was low the early years because so many sat as Uncs and AU's in drawers and rolls.

    It's hard to predict where the hobby is going but it's going to be less male, less American, and more diverse with much more diverse interests. Future collectors will value rarity, historical importance, and quality just like they always have.

    Tempus fugit.
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    HydrantHydrant Posts: 7,773 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2017 3:48PM

    What? You can't feel good about being right unless you can also prove that someone else is completely wrong? Not too competitive, are we?

    Yea, I'm just that kinda guy. Before I got married I was right about everything. All you had to do was ask me. Anything. I was always right. Not anymore. Not for a long, long time. I miss those days. I was always right. About everything. Anything.

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    HydrantHydrant Posts: 7,773 ✭✭✭✭✭

    To tell you the truth,.... I'm not really sure what "bifurcation" even means. I'm just faking it. At this point isn't it OBVIOUS?

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    ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,422 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MrEureka said:

    @Elcontador said:

    Actually, I have picked up a nice type coin that was not deemed to be "registry set worthy" several years ago at a reasonable price. It's a better date CBH in a PC 4 holder and solid for the grade. The powers that be seem to believe that a CBH that isn't in a PC 5 holder or better is not "registry set worthy."

    I'm sure it's a nice coin, but how available is it at the assigned grade? My point was that formerly scarce and rare coins, have been "under pressure" because they are now much more readily available. In effect, the increased efficiency of the market has made many coins less valuable than they otherwise would have been. (And again, the same increased efficiency is now making many cheaper and more obscure things more available, more collectable, and more valuable than they otherwise would have been. Crazy, right?)

    While the internet makes it easier to find coins, a pop 17 is a pop 17. I doubt many, if any, new ones have been made since I bought the coin. People that will plunk down $5-$6K on a coin don't want a CBH in a PC 4 holder these days. I doubt the coin is more readily available.

    I think your comments are spot on re a type CBH in a PC 5 holder (and per your comments, are cheaper today than they were several years ago), which is why I got a better date in PC 4 and saved a little bit of money in so doing.

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
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    cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,062 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @topstuf said:
    Just try not to get bifurcked. :p

    Finally we have the perfect adjective needed to describe the plight of many coin collectors in this market.

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    cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,062 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2017 7:41PM

    Are there any areas of numismatics that haven't been ravaged/destroyed by various TPGs and grade inflation?

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    topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It's way better on the darkside.

    I'm also feeling the love coming from actual rarity rather than conditional rarity.
    That's in US.

    I still don't "get" the neglect of pioneer gold.
    Unless it's just too "regional."

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    topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Darkside "feels" purer as a collecting ......hobby.
    ?????

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    jcpingjcping Posts: 2,649 ✭✭✭

    @cameonut2011 said:
    Are there any areas of numismatics that haven't been ravaged/destroyed by various TPGs and grade inflation?

    Yes, there are. Pioneer Gold, hard time tokens .... just named a few. For the very rare ones, collectors will go after the availability.

    an SLQ and Ike dollars lover
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    dizzleccdizzlecc Posts: 1,111 ✭✭✭

    part is the collector can sit at home and research prior to making a decision on the appropriate price level of a coin. One can research rarity, pricing, compare to other pictures, and read what experts have said. Common coins in common grade are easier to pass on, until you find the one that stands out from the crowd and grabs your eye for whatever reason.

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    Cougar1978Cougar1978 Posts: 7,640 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 23, 2017 4:59AM

    While many believe in grade inflation I believe there are more serious factors at play.

    The coin market is in trouble because of fewer collectors. Coins trading near BV doing well while numismatic coins struggling. In addition fewer have the disposable income to spend money on coins. What extra income they have more likely spent on a boat, travel, sporting and entertainment, or girls (strip clubbing, sugar baby, etc). The wealthy can afford coins as their dividend income more than pays for the prior items. The big bid drop in generic Morgan MS65 dollars this year another severe market blow, a staggering huge market cap loss. Rumors abound they could drop further.

    So far this year the DJIA has outpaced gold and silver which have outpaced the Pcgs 3000 which is neg vs Jan 01. The few CAC coins I have - no lookers or takers at shows for them (they don’t wanna pay da money).

    While watching the Astros gain the World series I sat there and bought a couple of nice coins off the bay at or below bid with my iPhone which I hope to plan to retail from my online store or at shows or simply enjoy for awhile.

    So Cali Area - Coins & Currency
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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,851 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Odd word for a hobby. For a market, I’m not sure. Whoever came up with the idea ? i think it was Longacre. As far as I recall, he took flight, shortly thereafter. And anyway , there are the rich. They control the market and decide what’s in and what’s not. Then there are the rest of us who dabble in it.

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    cladkingcladking Posts: 28,350 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @TwoSides2aCoin said:
    Odd word for a hobby. For a market, I’m not sure. Whoever came up with the idea ? i think it was Longacre. As far as I recall, he took flight, shortly thereafter. And anyway , there are the rich. They control the market and decide what’s in and what’s not. Then there are the rest of us who dabble in it.

    I think I'm the guilty party here. It's a good word and my unabridged Funk and Wagnalls says it means to branch in two or to fork. The hobby did branch back in '08 when high quality and rarity continued to increase and most other things stagnated. In the last few years little has changed except that "rarity" is coming to include more and more different types of numismatic and exonumismatic items.

    It may not be quite the right word but when have do I use exactly the right word? ;)

    Tempus fugit.
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    TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 43,851 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Try as we might, the hobby persists. I missed a coin last night because I didn’t bid high enough. Although it went for 75% more than it sold for last April in a Heritage auction, I’m led to believe Ebay bidders spend stupid money or they don’t do homework. ( granted, it was a dime that went for under $500) Bifurcation just doesn’t apply to me , dealing with four figure coins and below. Maybe for some the market is split in two directions for rare, scarce, etc., And for 5,6, &7 figure coins, I cannot speak to this phenomena.

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    topstuftopstuf Posts: 14,803 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Is the bifurcking continuing?

    Just quit it! You'll go blind! :#

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    shorecollshorecoll Posts: 5,445 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Most of what I bid on gets run up some. Even most commems, decent for the grade, have multiple bidders and they've been "dead" for years.

    ANA-LM, NBS, EAC
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    cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,062 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 24, 2017 12:33AM

    @shorecoll said:
    Most of what I bid on gets run up some. Even most commems, decent for the grade, have multiple bidders and they've been "dead" for years.

    Do you mean at the major auction houses? With the exception of Great Collections (which does not allow house bids to my knowledge), I am beginning to wonder how many of those inflated bids are from someone bidding against a computer or the potted plant in the back of the room.

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