Do you own any coins that have declined in value?
MrEureka
Posts: 24,194 ✭✭✭✭✭
If so, do you think it would be more accurate to say that they used to be overvalued, or that they are now undervalued?
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
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Oh NO! Mine have all had huge increases.
And just in the past few weeks.
They're "special."
I have a few:
1901-s Quarter in PCGS 53 CAC (probably over valued back in the barber hype days) now probably about down to the real numbers.
1914-D Lincoln PCGS 65RB CAC bought at a good price, so I would be okay, but when I bought it, it was a great deal, now what I paid is about what its actually worth today. Lot have come out including several nice ones.
1870-CC Seated Half PCGS VF-35 CAC bought several years ago, but several marginal /mediocres have come out over the years driving down auction records to a point of about 3-4K loss if I had to sell. Now, my coin is actually regradeable to a 40 today, so that actually might get me back close to break even with a little submission work.
Got rid of a few:
1893-s Morgan $ PCGS 55 paid astronomical high for it, got out close to what I had paid a year ago, but today 7K cheaper easily.
1874-CC Dime PCGS XF -40 (not a great coin, but seated values on mid circs have plunged, got out a few years ago, and thank goodness, I didn't take too bad a hit. But somebody selling today would.
1804 Draped Bust Dime PCGS XF-45 paid strong, sold at a loss, but had I waited would have lost nearly 40% plus. Paid 48K. sold at 42k 2 years ago, this same coin sold recently for high 20's .
last one 1873-CC seated dollar PCGS 40 OGH. Didnt really like the coin, but took it anyway cause I wanted one, sold a few years ago thru GC, actually only lost about 500 bucks, again glad I got rid of it then, sold some time after for a near 7k loss.
I also have a few that have done quite well over the same time frame, but that's for another topic.
98% of any US mint products recently purchased by anyone. And it's safe to say that most of those were overvalued from the beginning while a select few may be sleepers
Most coins have been flat or declining over the past 5 years. I can confidently answer yes to your question.
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
I'm with TS.
I'm on a roll that Warren Buffett would envy.
Everything I have leading with the name Barber
EAC 6024
I can't think of any I've held over a year or more that might be higher, unless an upgrade or CACing occurs. Generic gold coins from $1's to $20's obliterated. Have some gem matched commem PDS Ark/Boone sets from a few years back that must be a fraction of what they were. A lot of coins bought in 2006-2008 will end being like those bought in 1989-1990....the peak of a manic market....and potentially all time highs that might never be reached again...short of ridiculous inflationary pressures.
Jdimmick's experiences with better date bust, seated, and Barbers getting hit is interesting. Some of those coins he listed had never really seen a correction over the past 37 years....until 2009-2015. Even safe, conservative collector stuff can get hammered when the speculators join in to run them up.
A few, those with hard to see problems. The market is not that great in numismatics these days. Was in a shop in an economically depressed part of the state yesterday who has been around as long as any coin dealer in CT, and he was selling a little bit of everything, sold a certified $3 gold piece, had material priced at full retail. The guy has an old fashioned mojo that serves him well. Whether buying or selling he makes money and anyone there yesterday who said that gold or silver was overpriced he made reference to the tsunami in market increases he sees coming.
For the majority of dealers and serious collectors who may be a little nervous you have to believe that cycles change economics, even the internet and smart phone mania are bound to reverse which would be good for real collectibles.
I keep them turning so none are really underwater.
I was thinking about the 1997 Jackie Robinson $5 gold commem business strike this morning. Watched the coin run in value from $1000 to $4000 in about 5 years. Today they sell for about $1000. One cannot blame gradeflation for the dramatic reversal as the grade under 70 is moot.
Seems that the low interest first lady coins took out the rarity factor of the series.
The conventional wisdom has always been that these things go in cycles, and that one should be patient.
The countervailing panic usually occurs because, in the aggregate, people think "this time it's different; it'll never come back."
Unhappily, in this era of flux (particularly in terms of the nature of money), it is hard to know whether to be wise or to panic.
Here's a warning parable for coin collectors...
Seems to me that the coins that have declined the most are the ones that represented poor value compared to other coins. In other words, most of the declines that we've seen seem completely logical to me. Would you agree?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Sometimes it is wise to panic!
A few, Modern Commems. Some issues are doing quite well.
POST NUBILA PHOEBUS / AFTER CLOUDS, SUN
Love for Music / Collector of Dreck
Given this chart, which is a cross section of US coinage, don't see how anyone has escaped the downfall.
I suppose so if I was paying attention to everything. I am less concerned about catalogs and auction prices than the look of the coin I own. I am more concerned about how often certain coins are offered and their quality. The perceived value of a coin may have dropped but is the recorded auction hammer price truly reflective if one coin is superior to the other?
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
I collect mainly PL/DMPL Morgans.
In the same grade they are pretty much flat in value as compared to the mid 2000's when they were purchased.
But with gradeflation I have been able to get some pretty decent gains on paper for the ones that went up in grade.
Now the question is will the higher price in the next grade up still be there when I get around to selling them.
Or will that be gradeflated away
Most of my Liberty Nickels in PCGS MS 66 holders that I bought between 3 and 5 years ago. I think this is mostly due to a huge surge in pops with the new holder, which I believe began at the start of 2015. I have liked Very few of the newer coins I have seen in the grade; sticker or no sticker.
I don't think these coins were overvalued before. They were nicer coins that what I see now for the grade, and unless you're looking at a "must have" coin like an 09 S VDB, a coin with a pop 35 in a series is going to be worth less than one with a pop 12.
Got rid of the other material I had that wasn't going anywhere which had lost value. Ie., any PF Gem Barber coin.
Will give a shout out to Heritage for someone overpaying me for one of my Liberty Nickels above on their buy it now feature. The coin was purchased sight unseen. It was very flashy, but had a small hit on the cheek and the eyebrow, and was properly graded as MS 66, but these contact marks did not appear in the image. Buyer probably thought it was a shot 7; ch it wasn't.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
My PF65 1936 5c, 10c, and 25c are all beauties and all worth quite a bit less than I paid a few years ago
1932-64 series washington quarters are down significantly from where they were 7-9 years ago. All of the ones that I bought around that time I am buried in now. The we're a few of them that I decided to hold off on buying and I am glad that I did. One example was the 55-D in MS66. Back in 2008-10 they were selling bright white examples for around $450. Now they are only going for $150-200. As to whether they are under or over valued I think depends on the date and mint mark. Also in play here is that many of the Washington quarters were saved by the roll. Rolls from the 30's are tough to find, 40's are fairly easy and 50's -60's are common. There are not enough collectors for the series and too many rolls available to make them under valued. Bulk submissions have also been a negative on the series with dealers and flippers trying to capitalize on high grade registry examples. I hate to say it but I think this series is still a little over valued.
I really found a way to combat this.
I just stopped worrying about it and bought what I enjoy.
EAC 6024
Common date MS63 and MS64 Liberty $2.50's dated 1895 to 1907 have declined substantially since 2008.
https://www.pcgs.com/setregistry/gold/liberty-head-2-1-gold-major-sets/liberty-head-2-1-gold-basic-set-circulation-strikes-1840-1907-cac/alltimeset/268163
Another way is to become more familiar with as many types of coins as possible. The broader your knowledge, the easier it is to recognize overvalued and undervalued areas of the market.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Classical comm dropped too much in the last 8 years
Probably my classic commems. Stocks and real estate however have been going up huge which is a great counter balance.
100% Positive BST transactions
btw I keep watching and waiting for the PCGS 3000 price chart to stop falling.
100% Positive BST transactions
@MrEureka
I would not agree broadly ... especially in context of once very scarce gold coins with low Pops that are today trading at 1/2 the price as a result of European hoards that came out of nowhere. The coins were not overvalued and legitimately difficult to locate for decades -- now I can tell you were to buy 10 of them in various grades.
Hey! Look over there! I think that's a monkey... wait, what, did you ask a question? Works with my five-year old.
I had a whole 50 piece set that declined in value. I pick the wrong day to start. Collecting early commems.
Just sold some modern clad 5 coin Quarter Proof sets on eBay for $.99 per set. These are proof 69 and 70 cameo coins. $.26 lower than face value ? The market is ripe for getting free parking meter money, or bus money. I may have to start picking up and recycling aluminum cans, to float the eBay business.
HE>I
I think you would enjoy Robert Shippee's book_ Pleasure and Profit: 100 Lessons for Building and Selling a Collection of Rare Coins_. He really "opens the kimono" and walks through the numbers of his coin collection, not afraid to shine light on the ones that totally bombed. His collection as a whole made money when it sold, but there were some doozies.
Russ! Come back, Russ!
Indeed I do
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I was going to hit "lol" but this is unfortunately too true.
Go with the BIN or Best Offer on those.
Very few if any...
Having collected No Motto half eagles in under valued dates they have held value or have gone up which supports your point.
On my Latin American collections I'd say that they have also held value at least.
Latin American Collection
Probably all of the early gold coins I have bought in the last five to six years have lost value. These "blue chips" are not blue any more. I can enjoy them for what they are, and write off their decline in value as "entertainment expense."
Really? I have see choice early gold to have held value quite well
Latin American Collection
On the Modern front....About 5 years I ago picked up a 2001 PR70 DCAM Sac $1 for my Type collection.
The Price guide is half now since then.
Overvalued.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
The 1808 Quarter Eagle has dropped like a stone since I bought one in 2010. Ditto for the 1795 Small Eagle $10 gold.
Overvalued vs undervalued? I'm not sure it's either. It's more collecting trends and demographics in my opinion.
In a sense that's true. It depends on on your time horizon. One could correctly make the argument that tulip bulbs and dotcom stocks were never overvalued at any given moment, because the market is what it is. But for an investor looking to buy at the given moment and sell in the distant future, that is not a useful way to look at things.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Peace VAMs, even the cool ones.
11.5$ Southern Dollars, The little “Big Easy” set
A number of the walkers in my short set have declined in value. I think it is more that the quality ones are now undervalued and that the dreaded gradflation has allowed coins into 66 and 67 holders, that have no business being graded so to bring down the whole market.
Andrew Blinkiewicz-Heritage
How would an investor in 1989 buying ch/gem Morgan dollars, ch/gem classic commems, ch/gem gold, ch/gem copper, silver, and nickel type, have looked at the distant horizon?.....How about now 18 years later? Maybe another 18 yrs to get back to even? It really comes down to the point that when you buy, is equally important as to what you buy. Something that is not overvalued today, can be overvalued in 10-20 yrs. The stock market in 1929 was over-valued. It wasn't until 25 yrs later in 1954 that it recovered that dip...and that required shedding some dogs from the Dow Index and adding new ones.
One of the few areas not lower than 2008 might be specialized circ type, draped bust, early key dates (1815/2, 1839-0, etc.). Toner AU58 every-man type coins are probably a lot stronger. PO-01 type coins are stronger.
The thread titile makes me laugh. I wonder if I own any that haven't declined in value.
Normally, I'd consider this a buying opportunity..... only the stuff I'm after hasn't really slid yet. There are lots of people chasing the top 10% of the coins...... likely an unintended consequence of the masses having an improved (yet still far from perfect) ability to identify these coins (TPG & CAC).
Yes, I do.
In late 88, I shifted out of most of those things and into major rarities like gold patterns, gem 76-CC 20 cent pieces, and the Amon Carter 1794 Dollar. Not because I saw a crash coming, but because they represented far superior long term value.
Ten years ago, I started shifting towards world coins for similar reasons.
I still can't see the future, but I believe that the market rewards value in the long term.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Most coins I bought from the late 60s through the early 90s are valued lower than they were 10 years ago but still much higher than what I paid. After a 15 or 20 year "dry period" in my collecting activity I jumped back in in 2011. I started filling holes in my $5 liberty set, mostly better dates and most of them have probably dropped in value, some just slightly, some more than others.
it's crackers to slip a rozzer the dropsy in snide
Not as much as oil