Can Health of Hobby be Compared to Mint Sets Sold?
PocketArt
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A few weeks ago I was thinking to myself, and probably talking aloud too 
; about what kind of indicators that could be developed to track the health of our hobby? I initially thought maybe proof set sales per year compared to population; but, realized the latter '90's up to present created too much of a mess with proof sub sets such as silver sets, silver quarter sets, dollar sets, clad sets, etc. So, I settled on mint sets as there's not too much out of the ordinary with these sets.
Below is data of year, population, number of mint sets sold, and mint sets / population to render a ratio. What other data could be extrapolated into ratios, graphs, charts, etc., that could reveal the true health of our hobby?
I think coinstartled had an interesting post about, "Do a Million Americans own at least one slabbed coin"? Maybe an interesting data point would be if it's broken down per year along with how many coins slabbed compared to population.
This isn't rocket science- whatever you think is a good indicator; please share. The enjoyment I have with the hobby is something I want to pass on, and knowing the health of our hobby is important to me, and I'm sure it is for you too! I think all of us want someone appreciating our spoils when we're growing daisies. 
Year………U.S Population…………..Mint Sets Sold………….Sets Sold / Per Population: Ratio
1955……….170,796,378……………………49,656………………………………03
1960……….186,176,524………………….260,485……………………………..14
1965……….199,403,532……………….2,360,000…………………………..1.18
1970……….209,485,807……………….2,038,134……………………………..97
1975……….218,963,561……………….1,921,488……………………………..88
1980……….229,588,208……………….2,526,000…………………………..1.10
1985……….240,691,557……………….1,710,571………………………….....71
1990……….252,847,810……………….1,809,184……………………………..72
1995……….266,275,528……………….1,038,787…………………………… .39
2000……….282,895,741……………….1,490,160…………………………… .53
2005……….296,139,635……………….1,160,000…………………………… .39
2010……….309,876,170………………….583,397……………………………...19
2015……….321,773,631………………….314,048…………………………… .10
Sources: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/us-population/
http://www.coinnews.net/2017/01/06/2015-proof-set-2015-mint-set-and-2015-silver-proof-
set-mark-mintage-lows/
Yeoman, R.S., & Bressett, K. A Guide Book of United States Coins 2017. Atlanta: Whitman
Publishing, 2016. Print.
Comments
An interesting chart. Not very encouraging, is it? Where are all those collectors that the State Quarters series supposedly generated?
Collecting from circulation and buying NCLT are different types of collecting. Many classic coin collectors also stay with coins made for circulation, vs. for collectors.
During the great collecting boom of the late 1950s-early 1960s the sale of the mint sets took off. More recently, wild claims about the number of collectors who were added due to the State Quarters series would lead to the conclusion that mint set sales should rise, not fall. I knew there was trouble when my local dealer, who had stocked mint copies of all the State Quarters issues, decided he was not going to carry the National Parks Quarters at all. His reason ... no interest from the general public. Any way you look at it, this does not indicate a growing, healthy hobby.
Or it could be collectors are becoming more sophisticated, instead of purchasing every product put out by the Mint. It's been said that there is simply more interest in states than National Parks. I don't think there's anything wrong with collecting SHQs but passing on ATBQs. Also, the Mint puts out so many products now it's impossible for many collectors to keep up with all of them. Reducing the number of offerings may not be a bad thing.
I also wouldn't be surprised if many SHQ collectors were YNs and don't come back to collecting for years until they have a more solid financial foundation.
That's not to say mint sets may not be a good estimate, but some things would need to be taken into account. It does seem like there's a pretty large drop.
I have been collecting since 1961 and have never bought a Mint Set.
Price of silver is the best indicator of the "animal spirits" of the hobby.
Notice that your mint set chart peaks in 1965 and 1980. What was on everybodys' minds? Silver Silver Silver.
I am a very dedicated collector, and I really don't care about Mint sets. I've owned a fair number of them at one time or another, including many of the tough double mint sets from the '50s, and they have never interested me enough to keep them.
I see no correlation. I think the vast majority of serious collectors do not bother with these. Who wants to throw money in a financial black hole? If you do, buy them for 1/3 to 1/2 the issue price in a couple of years from eBay.
I have not purchased mint sets in many years.... just not worth it. Takes up a lot of space as well. I do not think it is representative of the health of the hobby at all. Frankly, I never worry about the health of the hobby. I enjoy coin collecting and whether there are a hundred or a million other collectors means nothing to me. Well, if there were not so many collectors, coins might be cheaper
.... Seriously, I think only dealers or those selling coins (not necessarily a dealer), should worry about the 'health' of the hobby. Actually, it is really sales that truly indicate such a measure. Cheers, RickO
I'll opine that the correlation is inversely proportional. In my experience, most people that buy mint products end up disappointed and eventually leave the hobby. Why? Mint sets are boring and overpriced. The sets for which they overpaid end up back on an overstocked market. Those that stick with what one might call "traditional" collecting (classics, filling holes, specialty areas) remain happy and stay interested/engaged over the long haul.
So ... the more mint sets sold = hobby less healthy. Less mint sets = more healthy. JMHO
ANA LM
USAF Retired — 34 years of active military service! 🇺🇸
A collector comes in and starts buying up Mint and Proof sets. Next thing I know, he is back in the shop playing show and tell. Man you can't imagine how beautiful these "modern" coins look in Dansco albums.
I asked him about his collection and he said "every time I buy a Mint Set, I cut the coins out and put each into its respective album." So to address this thread I would say : It depends not on how we see the health of the hobby, but rather; how the hobby contributes to one's happiness.
https://acoinshop.com/ —-> https://ebay.us/m/KxolR5
Very interesting- thanks all for input. I never bought any mint sets from the U.S. mint till this year. Never been inclined to buy them in the past from the U.S. mint because of cost, and could always get them cheaper on the open market. I'm trying to assemble some of the older mint sets- I do like them; however, weather I like them, or, not is immaterial. The data of units sold obviously represent individuals who liked them enough to purchase.
There will always be a percentage of collectors who "like" the sets, and a percentage who "don't like." I thought there was possibly a trend with fewer collectors who like the sets over the past 15 years, or so. Who knows? I thought "maybe," and I stress "maybe" a correlation; but, there are many other factors which all of you have shared that would not necessarily indicate a shrinking collector base.
There might be other indicators, this may not be the best indicator, just perhaps one? IDK- what might be a good indicator to health of hobby?
I think the increase in the number of mint products over time is a a pretty big confounding variable.
My question is: Where are all of these mint sets? How many were spent? How many are just sitting in tubs waiting to be sold for very little?
IG: DeCourcyCoinsEbay: neilrobertson
"Numismatic categorizations, if left unconstrained, will increase spontaneously over time." -me
I'd suggest when you were a YN, that those who helped you along, and looked out for you cared about the future of the hobby Rick. "guilt intended.
"
One issue may be that the vast majority of collectors are casual (not serious) collectors and that this may be a gauge of how many casual collectors there are.
I've never been impressed with the formal efforts to develop "Young Numismatists". Numismatics (and the passion for coins) is some that gets into your blood somehow, and a lot of serious coin people had little or no encouragement from others in their early stages of the hobby. I want to help kids who have the coin bug, but I think a lot of the YN thingie borders on patronizing.
If I had to make a criticism here, "I've never sold a coin and never will" is not a badge of honor as some would claim. If you've never sold a coin, that means you still own every mistake that you've ever made.
And I will say it again, when silver does well, the coin hobby does well. That is a great indicator.
The correlation between your two data sets is -0.1694 which means there is no useful relationship.
It might have helped if you used the mean population and mint set sales for each 5-year bin, although it seems a stretch to expect much change.
Generally, incremental data does not substituted for minimum data intervals.
As for the impact of state quarters etc on coin collecting... the Mint numbers were based on coin withdrawal from circulation and bank/merchant demand from FRBs. Neither data set was appropriate to answering the question of the number of collectors created by the quarter programs.
Thanks Roger for working out the correlation between data sets; I guess perhaps even tightening the data by figuring the ratio each year, instead of every 5 wouldn't be a benefit either? Glad I didn't do each year if that's the case!
I do not think the number of mint sets sold correlates to the health of the hobby. Myself, like BillJones considers myself a dedicated collector and I do not personally own a mint set. Most of the dedicated collectors I know do not purchase mint sets or collect them. Whenever I talk to non-collectors and let them know I collect, deal and promote shows, many tell me they purchase the "yearly sets" from the mint to save for their grandchildren. My opinion is that the statistics show how many people purchase from the mint for their grandchildren on a yearly basis.
The question here is whether people purchasing yearly sets should be considered as party of the health of the hobby. Certainly receiving such a set from a grandparent may help set one up as a collector in the future.
The problem with the increase of US population data vs mint sets.
People are living longer. And baby boomers ' collection are passing down through generations
Family are getting smaller and decide to have a child late, if any after 35. Even if traditional family value was to own a set for the child's birth year, the number would still be decreasing.
Lot more new immigrants and their offspring. How many actually care for our coins history and share the same memory we have as a child?
When I started collecting (from my paper route proceeds) in the early 50's I had no mentor nor did I even know a collector. I couple of us "rich as we had income" kids got together on Saturdays to go to the bank and roll search. That was my start...was collecting for 6 years before I visited the local coin shop and I did that only once, period. Foul taste, as the guy smoked cigars, the place and him stunk and so did the coins in his shop. I was not yet smoking and this was a real turn off. We then moved to a rural area that had no coin shops and I kept collecting from the bank and change off Dad's dresser. I bought used blue books from my friends father (was he a mentor?).
As for the question "where are all the state quarter collectors" I think I know where they are. They moved along to life as the series never ended and just goes on forever and ever...I'm waiting for the state flower quarters or state bird quarters and I think they were too. The mint screwed us all and continues to do so. I've never purchased a mint or proof set from the mint, and only buy them in the aftermarket and usually at a much cheaper price.
That chart pretty much says it all and if I read it right it says that on one tenth of one percent of persons bought a set...that's lame. Where the heck am I going to get mine???? Where's the aftermarket????
bob
Some other issues with Mint sets:
Not a chance
Latin American Collection